Techs saved, rest shaved!

As we have discussed in the earlier posts the sell is stock specific but could pull the index down by 150 odd points at Nifty. The move has been anticipated and asked the co-passenger friends to half load their luggage of longs. The preparations to buy now have also been alerted, with caution they can build their positions. The day traders might have observered that the run in techs has been moved once the Infosys above 1935, wipro above 539-541 and Satyam above 473, were kept as bench marks. At the time of steep fall RCOM continued to trade above 516 held the neck out and said that it is strong enough to face the downpour of sell off. The regular viewers might have taken those levels while trading including Nifty a sell of point below 4283 and RIL below 1763. Now the old situation changed to a new one. We can discuss the new levels tomorrow for Monday trading.

For China ‘No’ but for USA “Yes”!

The market behavours are quite interesting; while China melts down happened every body was at wait and watch. Where as the USA markets made the other markets melt down across the globe. That is the big brother leadership even in distruction.
The possibility of Nifty opening below 4141 is for sure but the 4079 leve shall not be breached as posted earlier. The RIL shall not trade below 1645-1641 leve SBI not below 1326-1329 and RCOM shall now go below 500 mark. The Steel and metal with FMCG will melt. Good buying of HLL at 186-189 level and 149-146 for ITC.

So prepare for the up move!

The Indian markets are not fallen in that category to sell indiscriminately across the board. The mantra of creeping acquisition by the promoters is also a threat to bears. The market has not completed the correction but it has not completed the promised “due” to create all time high of Sensex. There was steady growth taken place in the NFO collection by MF’s and the industrial growth. So people are not in a hurry to book their profits made or not sure that they can by at lower levels. If we focus on Nifty it did not breached the 4140 support at June series though spot did. The trading sessions will be volatile to convince the bears to give a way their stake made. The markets will gain 500 points before it takes a Southward direction. The beauty is the consolidation at higher level and the decisive move can be seen after June-07 quarter results. So wait for a steep fall and for now trade cautiously. The levels we discuss tomorrow.

The war is on, No matter who wins!

As posted yesterday the bears ruthlessly slaughtered the weakest and did not even spared the stoner one. The war is on, no matter who wins finally but try to be in the winners club, always to keep a smiling face at the end of the day. The level of fall is deep and the USA is going to add fuel to the fire for tomorrow. The Asian markets calm but the European markets spreading meltdown material.. The Nifty has good support at 4141-43 and the best and the last hope for speedy recovery support available at 4079-75 range. Until the best support isn’t broken decisively the hopes of recovery to scale new highs are intact.
The viewers might have reduced their carrying long by 50% as requested 4 days back and might have gone short below 4283 level. The long-term buyers for medium term view can initiate longs after Nifty touched the 4075 level. This time the best buys could be generated from pharma and tech stocks. The recovery of any kind be used to off load another 50% tomorrow itself..

The Nifty at cross roads!

The China volatility is about to spread to India. The slaughtering of the stocks in China was a matter of booking profits made in months. Their stocks raised more than100% in 4 months where as in India it was not so. As a matter of fact, for 90 points rise at Nifty from a high of 4235 on 17th to 4325 on 1st June, it took 12 trading sessions.
The markets showed their resilience as the China recovered from a 6% low to a to 2% high, gave much needed relief for the markets. The readers might have observed that the Nifty could not cross 4298 nor it could close above 4286, a crucial level.
The RIL has become the weakest and the SBI has become the strongest at this point in time. The ICICI is trading above 928-930 level is good to banking stocks. Nifty is strong so long SBI trades above 13003-1306. But the advancing breadth has limited and trading above their immediate support levels.
The market is considered positive so long the heavy weights trade above these levels-SAIL should trade above 141, RIL above 1763, ONGC above 908, TataSteel above 641, Bharti above 929, RCOM above 515, Infosys above 1935, TCS above 1221, and Wipro above 541.The Nifty shall not trade below 4281, then bears will run their day.

Sensex- just short, now far away?

The Indian markets are trying their best to cross the all time high at Sensex but the global, especially the adjacent China melt down brought down by 75points. The banks, especially SBI and ICICI are trading above their support levels. As posted in the morning, the RIL lost its bottom but closed at 1741-43 the support level and RCOM has failed to cross 516 but closed above 508 are the both positive points. But the global cues could hamper the Sensex growth prospects. The techs mainly Infosys above 1935, TCS above 1229-32 and Wipro above 542 are strong but no support was available to them to trade above those support levels. We have to see the reaction from USA markets.

The ample money with MFs!, but the strength?

The MFs have received highest ever fund in flow for investments in equities and the total money under Assets Under Management (AUM) increased from Rs 3, 50,279 to Rs 4, 07,754. The investors confidence has increased in MFs as they have better bargaining power in case of a severe volatility blow. The short-term/ immediate indicators are bullish on all fronts. The real strength of Indian market can be tested, whether the cracks in global indices can crumble our markets or not?- is the foremost challenge to our valuations.

Technically speaking the Nifty is strong even it falls to a level of 4141-4143. But the worrying factor at this point in time is the capacity to bounce back across the board. The mid cap story is very much specified to 75-100 stocks and the churning is also wild. A close study can reveal a fact that when there was some activity in a particular stock with 6 to10% + up move, has become so short lived that it could not advance at least on the next day, is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
So, go long for a day or two but don’t try to average in case of a loss. The back drop of ADR’s was green and the Asia is biased on bulls side except China. It is likely that the Nifty could advance further with the support of Infosys and techs but the melt down in China by 4% is not a small issue. The RIL is trading at the verge of it’s support for day traders. Nifty shall not trade below 4293 level then it will touch 4229-4232 level.

For today’s stock specific calls visit www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com

Will the Sensex create history?

The markets likely to touch the all time high of Sensex on Monday which is at 14724 can be a matter of history. It seems that the news of ‘billing rates hike’ of Infosys can add numbers to the Sensex. The world over indices is scaling new highs but here we are struggling to find buyers. There were signs of liquidity drying up in the small stocks and the mid cap story is around a few stocks and the rest are moving Southwards. On other side of the upward movement, limited to a few stocks especially the Reliance family stocks are saving the sentiment but the bumpy roads to other stocks can be seen in their movement.

The economy likely to see a considerable low growth rate in the next two quarters as the fall in the rate of growth of auto mobiles can be a first sign in that direction. The banks fund raising rates are going up day by day and the competition are building up to garner the cash rich. The banks will be forced to focus on farm lending as the agriculture growth is negative and the elections are around the corner. The rupee appreciation already hurting the leather & garment exporters, software services and other agri-exporters working on thin margins.

The effort is not to picture a negative view but to through some light on the other side, kept in darkness while beating the growth rate drums by the govt. and the analysts. After few quarters, the story of “growth rate” can become a useful paper work for the researchers but not for the common person who is struggling to survive to get two meals a day.