“Conspiracy”

“Conspiracy”-be it on Anil or by Saimira. The ADAG group alleges that the ill-eyed, dark hearted people jealous of the group’s progress plans to kill him. The Citi sleeps are not but the CEO Pandit lost his sleep on the plans of removal from the top post. The SEBI came out with a stringent action against the peopled involved in price manupulation by forged letters of open offer by the promoters, broker and the media persons involved in Saimira episode.

The govt. expects 40 billion dollar FDI and the growth rate above 7-8% will be visible in the second half. The Results of Cipla are good to digest where the Ranbaxy swallowed a bitter pill and hard to digest as the losses are mounting quarter on quarter. The surprise was the decline in profits of Maruti and it expects the future is not rosy.

The Major results today are from ICICI bank, Balrampur chinni, Triveni engg, Petronet Lng and other smaller companies. The Sunday poised for software company results- Mind tree, Nucleus soft and R-system to announce their results.

Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my morning posting:
Nifty 3491.35 3402.90 3480.75
ICICIBANK 439.40 415.10 434.10
RIL 1802.00 1727.00 1788.85
REL infra 747.00 703.40 740.50
Rel Cap 563.00 530.35 557.65
I may be right or wrong-"No argument with the ticker- NEVER".

The crucial support…..

The markets took support to bounce back from the day’s lows to close at day’s high is a clear bullish sign. The results of RIL and other major companies results shall be discounted at current levels is debatable. The internal demand for infra structure, construction and related activities were grossly stalled for want of Govt direction and the 3-G auction and other related policy decisions were put on hold will see light after the new budget. The list can be enlarged but the fact is that they store potential for sustained growth by meeting the internal demand.

The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.

The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.

The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.

For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.

Today BEL, CIPLA,IDBI, Ranbaxy, Maruti will announce their numbers.

Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my morning posting:
Nifty 3439.90 3310.5 3423.70
ICICIBANK 431.60 395.10 424.40
RIL 1774.90 1696 1763.70
REL infra 716.65 662.10 712.35
Rel Cap 535.60 496.05 531.80
DLF 240.7 222.40 238.05
HDIL 147.25 124.15 144.85
HDFCBANK 1100 1065.40 1092.50
T.STEEL 266.35 238.65 262.85
SAIL 116.40 106.50 115.10
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”

The crucial support…..

The markets took support to bounce back from the day’s lows to close at day’s high is a clear bullish sign. The results of RIL and other major companies results shall be discounted at current levels is debatable. The internal demand for infra structure, construction and related activities were grossly stalled for want of Govt direction and the 3-G auction and other related policy decisions were put on hold will see light after the new budget. The list can be enlarged but the fact is that they store potential for sustained growth by meeting the internal demand.

The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.

The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.

The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.

For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.

Today BEL, CIPLA,IDBI, Ranbaxy, Maruti will announce their numbers.

The Performance of yesterday :
Nifty 3439.90 3310.5 3423.70
ICICIBANK
431.60 395.10 424.40
RIL 1774.90 1696 1763.70
REL infra 716.65 662.10
712.35
Rel Cap 535.60 496.05 531.80
DLF 240.7 222.40 238.05
HDIL 147.25
124.15 144.85
HDFCBANK 1100 1065.40 1092.50
T.STEEL 266.35 238.65
262.85
SAIL 116.40 106.50 115.10

The Big boy announces…

The India’s top market cap leader, index mover Reliance is going to announces is quarterly results. The markets are waiting for the RIL results and the Nifty may swing in tune with the scrip.
The top notable companies that are going to announce the results are RPL, RNRL, Rel infra, Rpower, HDFC bank, LIC housing, SKF, Idea Zee news and many more…

The Nifty is good above 3381 and weak below 3356 level. The RIL results influence the market trend. The Nifty become weak if it trades below 3320 level will likely to touch 3265 and next at 3229-31 level. The second support level will provide reasonable bounce from 3211-18 level to Nifty.
The RIL is good above 1735 and weak below 1715 may get support at1684 level, once it falls below 1665 will get support at 1615-30 range.
The banking major SBI and ICICI are facing Bear heat. The SBI is weak and good support is at 1180-65 level. The ICICI may get support from 376-79 level. This will gain strength only when it crosses the immediate resistance at 416-18.
The Relcap is exhibiting good support at 500 level and will gain strength above 521 level and weak below 511-13 level. It has bounced from the support at 491 level when it touched 495 low now holding above 500. In case it falls below 495 then the support at 472-467 level.

The HDFC bank is facing resistance at 1100 level and the support at 1040 level. The critical juncture is at 1085-1067 range.Please watch out for break-out in SAIL, RCOM, United Spirits.The reality sector major is getting support at 225 level and the HDIL at 124 level.

The cut is developing…..

The Nifty is carrying loads of wait on long side despite of global corrections; it could keep the head above deep waters for a better sailing. The major news that dampened the sentiment is the exclusion list of 50 companies from the FO segment from June-09.

In the todays trade the tech majors did not see a deep cut but the HCL tech, NIIT, NIIT Ltd and Rolta lost the ground by10% and more. The mid cap reality sector stocks, media and software stocks that face the threat of exclusion lost nearly 10%.The metals corrected steeply, especially Tata Steel and Ster. The major up moves seen in the smaller names but the Tata Elexi, Bajaj Holdings, LIC housing, Suzlon and Wockpharma deserve worth mentioning.

The up move was capped at this juncture unless the markets get good going tomorrow above 3415-18 level. The Reliance is saving the fall, weak below 1715 level and is good above 1735 but a rally is not visible. The new in RPOWER triggered a rally in the stock but its parent company REL infra made a consolidation but it well rally only if it could stay above 693 levels. The banking stocks in anticipation of the rate cut rallied now easing on the news and may correct steeply if the SBI fails to hold above 1256 level. So tomorrow is crucial for our markets and the global news holds the key.

The fall stopped….

The markets could recover due to RIL, Bharti, ONGC, HDFC, HDFC bank and DLF could place hurdles for a bear run across the board. The markets could recover in the mid session to trade in green but failed to hold the gains in the late session due to profit booking.

The Following scrips covered in my morning
posting:

ICICIBANK 416.35 391.30 398.75
RIL 1733.65 1684.70 1706.10
REL infra 689.50 662 673.85
Rel Cap 522.85 495 507
Nifty 3414.70 3309.35 3365.30

The RED spreads….

The results of TCS are good and the 1:1 bonus is not going to cheer the street as the steep sell off in the US and the Asian markets with a cut more than 3%.

The best days of AXIS banks are yet to come but the Naik resignation will have a deep cut despite the good numbers. The technology major Infosys will starts its southward journey from here to touch 1269-71 level and the bounce is expected for 1211-16.

The suggested levels in my previous posts valid and the bounce bank will happen from such levels. The Nifty will face tough resistance at 3411 level for the time being. The immediate support for today is at 3313-16 and the second support from where a serious bounce expected is at 3265-71 level. This will become a serious cut once it falls below 3250 level.
The Reliance see a deep cut below 1718-21 level and the support for this day at 1665 and at 1654-51 level.
The positive side of yesterday move of REL Infra may find support at 659-61 level and at 649-51 level, below this level serious.
The Relcap is weak below 536 and likely to go below 500 to rest at 496-93 level. The ICICI is also weak below 441-39 level and likely to touch 411 and at 403 the supports are existing but the scrip will dip below 400 and bounce is expected from 381-78 level.

The correction is good….

The correction in the markets is good for the long term investors. The rally was sharp and very few could venture to grab the opportunity. The world economic situation has not improved but the hope that could build on the extreme pessimism when Dow touched the 25 year low below 700 levels. Now such an extreme situation could suddenly emerge as a rally over that lasted for more than 6 consecutive weeks to create a history in US that was not happened in the past 60 years. The strength of extremism of pessimism made a Bear trap and now it can be gauzed with this heavy short covering lead Bull grip over the markets across the globe.
The cool off signs are emerging in all the markets and they are now enjoying the vacation at higher level as consolidation. So our Nifty could again touch 3080-3020 level due to our domestic issues. The confusion over the new government formation gets accelerated as the “third front” will emerge from political turbulence as the polling phases get closer to end by May second week. The tussle for the premier hot seat, the FM Budget and June end quarterly results will clearly provide the right direction to our markets.

For today, the Nifty is strong so long as it trades above 3360 level. The Bulls will gain strength above 3426-35 level but will yield to selling pressure incase Nifty fails to cross 3411-09 initial resistance. The high volatility may reduce and may get support at 3313-11 level, the second support will be at 3280-88 level. The Asian markets are flat with negative bias.

The counters that lost the charm are The RIL and ONGC. The RIL is weak below 1730 and face serious resistance at 1757-1751 level. The RIL will get support at 1665-67.
The ICICI bank is strong above 444-45 level but will become weak below 435 to touch 419-22 support level.
The Rel cap now facing bear pressure gets resistance at 551-49 range and likely to touch 480-475 range. For today it may get support at 491-93 level.
The SBI is showing good support at bottom till yesterday evening failed to hold the ground above 1306-09 level may get support at 1259-56 if it fails trade to trade above 1320 level.

The Rel Infra face resistance at 685-83 level and may find support at 621-23 once it trades below 659-61 level.
The DLF received a series of bottom support at 222-226 level for 4 trading sessions may once again get support.

Now the time to wait……

The markets are under bull grip with out any doubt. People find different jargons to situations but the ultimate goal in market participation is to make money. The serious investor or the trend follower simple finds way to adjust in the right slot to take the pie worth deserving.
The strength of markets at the bottom and the building process was so excellent that the advancement was like creeping. The retail investors were skeptical to participate in the pessimistic environment. This provided a god sent opportunity to Bull operators to scale to touch new highs. The history is writing on the wall.

The Nifty rallied from 2539 on 6th March to 3511 on 16th April, in 24 trading sessions it rallied nearly 970 points with out any serious set backs.
The fall on 30the was really serious to cover but covered in style to trap the bears. The front line stocks like REL Infra, Rel cap, SBI, Axis bank, RIL LT and many more rose by 50% as the short sellers were seriously trapped. The classic example of retail short covering at the fag end of the day on “Infosys results-15th April” triggered rallyand effortlessly stocks fell on the next day itself.

Now the challenge is to find out the emerging trend. There some stocks that emerged as Bullish in the last 3-4 tradings and the earlier front runners taking a pause in the run up. The stocks like HUL, ITC, Wipro, LT, SBI, Axis bank and to some extent Bharti are exhibiting bullishness.
The RIL, ONGC, GAIL, Rel Infra, R-power, NTPC, DLF, HDIL, T motors, TCS, United spirits and metal majors seems to be buckle to bear pressure.
The short covering stretch can be observed in BHEL, Maruti, T-power and in United Spirits.