STOCKS RISE GLOBALLY.....!!!!!!!!

It’s a global bull party!

LOKESHWARRI SK

July 24, 2014:  

The bulls are partying hard not just in India but in many other countries as well. Even as the Sensex has scaled the astounding height of 26,000, benchmarks in countries including Argentina, Canada, Germany, USA, UK and Pakistan are also perched close to their life-time highs.

This surge has made the market capitalisation of all bourses swell. According to the World Federation of Exchanges, the largest stock exchange, the New York Stock Exchange, has seen its market capitalisation increase from $17 trillion in January this year to $19.1 trillion towards the end of June. That the exchange has been able to grow at such a searing pace despite a very high base is a proof of the strength in the ongoing rally. The market cap of all the American exchanges towards the end of June — both North and South American exchanges — is 22 per cent higher than last year.

This may be impressive but the exchanges in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have managed to trump their American counterparts with 26 per cent year-on-year increase in market cap. The largest bourse in this segment, the Euronext with market cap of $3.8 trillion, recorded a strong 31 per cent growth. The overall market cap growth in Asia Pacific zone was relatively sedate at 15.9 per cent. Gains were depressed by the leader, the Tokyo stock exchange that has market cap of $4.6 trillion, growing at a slow 14.9 per cent. With the fast paced rally in Japanese markets already done with in 2013, this market has been a relative underperformer.

The Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange with market caps of around $1.5 trillion were out-performers in this category with gains of 39 per cent and 40 per cent increase in market cap.

While Indian bourses aren’t in the global league on market cap, the BSE tops the list when measured on the number of listed companies with 5,406 listed stocks towards the end of June. The TMX, the Canadian stock exchange comes next with 3,805 stocks. The NSE with 1,695 stocks features at the ninth position.

Indian investors however do not appear as enamoured by Exchange Traded Funds with less than 40 ETF listings. Exchanges in developed markets such as NYSE and Deutsche Borse have the maximum number of listed ETFs listed at 1,463 and 1,029 respectively. They are followed by Swiss Exchange and Euronext.

Indian exchanges do not fare that badly in bond listings. The National Stock Exchange has 6,191 bonds listed on it. This compares not too badly with the exchange that tops the list — Luxembourg Stock Exchange with 26,093 bond listings.

(This article was published on July 24, 2014)

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/its-a-global-bull-

party/article6245897.ece?homepage=true

RAIN..NO RAIN..HOW GAIN...??????????

Why the monsoon numbers hide reality

Because the ecology of various regions differs, it is silly to club them all under one countrywide average number

Nitin Sethi  |  New Delhi  

July 22, 2014 Last Updated at 08:10 IST

A whopping three-fourth of the country’s geographic area is right now facing a rainfall deficit severe enough to warrant crisis management. The Indian Meteorological Department’s data shows that 74% of India has so far recorded monsoon rainfall much below its normal levels.

Of the 36 rainfall divisions that the IMD divides the country in, 25 are reeling from rains much below what is considered normal for the region. As of yesterday 22 of the 25 have recorded rainfall dipping by more than 40% below the normal for the specific belts. 

Even by the lax Indian government definition, less than 20% rain means a meteorological drought (earlier it used to be triggered on official records by a 10% dip in rainfall).  

Yet the IMD figure of 31% country-wide area-weighted average figure for the entire monsoon season or a 15-16% deficiency in the last week’s rainfall country-wide area-weighted data is being deployed to suggest that the monsoon is not all that bad and its only getting better when one compares to the previous week.  

Let’s not get fooled by the averages. Farmers who depend upon monsoon to water their fields do not live by averages, they have to survive the extremes and the variation in the rains through the season. For a farmer, how the rain is spread over the monsoon period is critical. A dry sowing period followed by a huge downpour at a later stage of plant growth can be cataclysmic. For an analyst keeping sight of only the average rainfall it will only show a near ‘normal’ rosy picture of rain catching up finally. 

The pattern of rain that is most advantageous also differs from crop to crop, in fact, also from seed variety to seed variety. The availability of hardy short-duration varieties that shall survive low rainfall levels but give relatively lower productivity are a safer bet for a farmer in a bad monsoon. The farmer has a short time-gap and the increasing unpredictability of rainfall patterns to make these calls. This is where the government and the IMD reports are meant to come in handy. To have the right seed available and to have it in time is critical. To keep the fields ready to start sowing operations.

 

Northern Limit of Monsoon

 To understand the complexity of decision-making a farmer faces, one has to only read the regional Agromet advisories that the government puts out periodically. For any average city-dweller in India who only has to deal with the question of whether the city roads will be clogged with overflowing sewage or not, it can send the head spinning. 

 It is true, the monsoon is catching up in parts, the IMD raw-data shows. But, for a real picture of where it is and where it is not going to be enough, one only needs to survey the regional papers that reflect a more district-level variation of the hinterland.

 To reassert the point on getting lost in averages: normal monsoon in the evergreen ecological belts of Manipur, Mizoram, is 686.6 .4 mm for the season. For the drylands of Saurashtra, it is merely 213.1 mm for the same period. The ecology of the regions differs. Therefore, what the people grow and how they grow differs. It is silly, by any logic, mathematical interpretation or ecological sense, to club them all under one countrywide average number when reviewing how they shall fare through a year of climate and weather patterns. 

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/why-the-monsoon-numbers-hide-reality-114072100869_1.html

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MY SERIOUS CONCERN IS ABOUT THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONEY IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO FROM STOCKS THAT CAN RARELY OFFER LITTLE HEAD ROOM DUE TO WORRISOME EXTERNAL FACTORS AND FAILURE OF MONSOON FOR NOW...

THE MARKETS ARE SHIFTING GEARS TO SAFE ZONES....IN FUTURE THE INVESTMENTS WILL GO TO GOLD & SILVER, FOR NOW PLS WAIT FOR SOME MONTHS, TILL OCTOBER. I THINK THE YEARLY LOW CUTS WILL BE THE ORDER OF PLAY IN THE STOCK MARKETS. THE TELECOM, IT, INSURANCE AND JEWELRY STOCKS CAN SEE SOME SUPPORT BUT REST OF THE UNIVERSE WILL DRIFT LIKE LAND SLIDES. .....A FREE FALL AND MAY WILL COME WITH EXCUSES AND SOME COME WITH LONGTERM STORY.

PHENOMENAL RISE&HIGHs but A Denial for NOW….!!!

PHENOMENAL RISE&HIGHs but A Denial for NOW….

The Indian markets have performed stupendously, like a race against all ODDs and against all emerging markets. We are the best performing Indices YTD or for the quarter. The Rise is so phenomenal that no-body expected but few could CASH the opportunity. Now many new entrants are making inquiries and many more are looking as a decent opportunity to make HUGE money to meet their DREAMS.

The fact is that, since January-14, Nifty rose by 20%, Mid-Caps by 30% and Small caps by 55%, some Individual stocks rose by 400-700% from their LOWs. The hype generated now is due to change in the Government, a market friendly team at the top. But the fact is that No-body could SELL the National property via LIBERALIZATION for no reason, nor for a simple cause. The National growth based on immediate requirements and will be judged by prioritising/striking a right balance between “NECESSITY & COMMERCIALIZATION”. The Future is GOOD as huge investments will take place and the results will come in due course of time.

As far as the Stock Markets rise is concerned, a dead cheap stocks are at a historic low was one of the major reasons for FIIs relentless investments. The Global markets are also encouraging and FREE Supply/HIGH Liquidity is driving the markets for NOW. Very few are working on the REAL worth for the paper but relying on the PROJECTIONS. The Nifty is POISED for touching 9000+ as experts are working on the next 3-year EARNINGS and P/E that could safely take us above the above said number. I am not pessimistic but play a realistic role for valuing the Available Opportunity. The main reason for Nifty may seek SOUTHWARD JOURNEY because of looming DROUGHT, Poor Investments made by the CORPORATES in the Preceding/Previous 2-3 years, so NO earnings Surprise by the top companies.

So, the scenario is GLOOM in the Short-term, however the POLICY push can give some bounce but for the next ONE year will be very challenging. The Nifty stocks are moving up but the UN-Winding is a concern. The rise from here may not be that much sharp or serious, from here 2-Ups and 4-5 Downs. Because the FUTURE is promising, on any DEEP cut/ steep fall BULLs take charge to make a comeback to take away the Retail Investors most of the STOP-LOSSES.

THE BLOOM and GLOOM story…..THE MOMENTUM IS HIGH….

THE NIFTY MAY TOUCH 8785-8850 RANGE; BUT VERY LIKELY, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 7000, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 6600-6400 RANGE

THE BANK-NIFTY MAY TOUCH 20100-22000 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 12500-800, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 10100-10300 RANGE

THE RELIANCE MAY TOUCH 1450-1550 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 801-811, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 759-736 RANGE

THE ONGC MAY TOUCH 620-650 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 311-321, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 270 RANGE

THE SBI MAY TOUCH 3850-3950 RANGE, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 1920-1950, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 1450-1430 RANGE

THE ICICI MAY TOUCH 2130-2080 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 1180-1220, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 970-950 RANGE

THE RELCAPITAL MAY TOUCH 950-1050 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 440-415, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 330 RANGE

THE RELINFRA MAY TOUCH 1080-1150 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 520-540, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 440 RANGE

WE CAN EXTEND AND READ MORE NUMBERS… BUT THE DENIAL IS RIDING HIGH EVEN IN MY MIND…

PLS DON’T BUY NOW UNTIL NIFTY TOUCHES 7250-80 RANGE, BUT THE ACTUAL BUYING IN QUALITY STOCKS SHALL EMERGE FROM 7000 ONLY. THOSE WHO ARE COMPULSIVE, SHALL TAKE A STOPLOSS ROUTE RATHER THAN HOLDING FOR LONGER…THW WAIT MAY BE 3 YEARS…!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!