Wednesday, July 31, 2013

BUY BANKS FOR NEXT 3 Yr--BIG JUMPS EXPECTED...!!!!

Chandan Kishore Kant  |  Mumbai  July 31, 2013 Last Updated at 22:06 IST

FIIs raise holdings in public sector banks' stocks Raise holdings in Union Bank, OBC, Canara and Indian bank among others

The counters of state-owned banks have been bleeding daily for some weeks. Almost all of these on the stock exchanges are either at a 52-week low or close to their post-Lehman crisis levels.
houses, market participants and sector analysts are busy advising investors to refrain from such terribly hit scrips, with some of the latter having lost as much as 60 per cent of their values (year-to-date).
Amid this, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) seem to be taking a contrarian call and have mustered courage to raise their holdings on selective counters, mostly mid-cap and small-cap public sector banks (PSBs).  The counters where they have reduced exposure are marginal cuts. This means foreign investors are not as bearish on PSBs as local investors at this point of time.
of India, Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC), and Indian Bank have witnessed holdings going up from 35 to 104 basis points (bps, each of these being a hundredth of a percentage point). Others getting more FII money include Bank of India (BoI), IDBI Bank, Corporation Bank and Vijaya Bank.
U R Bhat, managing director of Dalton Capital Advisors, says: "The market seems to have over-reacted on banking stocks. Such a harsh treatment looks overdone."  Interestingly, during the year-to-date period, India's benchmark stock indices have lost barely half a percentage-point. But the
Bankex has fallen 20 per cent so far this year; it would be much more if only PSB scrips were measured, since private heavyweight banks such as HDFC, Axis and ICICI did not fall as much.
 Vaibhav Agrawal, the banking sector expert at Angel Broking, had earlier told Business Standard: “Several PSBs are available at dirt-cheap valuations. One should adopt a strategy of basket buying on the sector.”
Only foreign investors seem to have listened.
 The situation is like the time of the Lehman collapse in end-2008. All banking counters had crashed to abysmal low levels by March 2009. However, by November 2010, banks were the first to recover from these lows.

Sunday, July 28, 2013

NIFTY MAY CROSS 6280, SOON..!!!

The markets fell from 6080 level to 5880 level but the positive aspect is it came from a low of 5570 levels. The Index performed despite of massive correction in the banking stocks. The rally in HUL, ITC, RIL and IT stocks helped Nifty to scale the technical hurdles. Now the challenge lies in holding on to the gains and keep the upward momentum going.
As Udayan commented in Money control/CNBC-TV18, the Indices are now become deceptive because the portfolios are bleeding. The Midcap massacre is evident. The fact is, the winners always chose the WINNING stocks. 
In my earlier write-ups and also in my twitter postings mention that the markets especially the banking stocks will see the low cuts. the scrip churning is the very nature of market operation and also market participants want to chase the new breed for more gains. The huge positions were built in HUL, ITC and other FMCG stocks in anticipation of GST, meanwhile the results fuelled the rally for last 4-5 quarters despite of repeated postponement of implementation. 
The RBI would have given rate cut but the Rupee fall threatened the decision makers and now they are in view of tightening the money supply to avoid further damage. Once the dust settles, the RBI may focus on growth and allow the easy supply/liquidity in the system. The banks NPAs are rising and the banking sector valuations are re-rated.
The doubts of continuation of this Govt in power was faded at least upto October. So the early election to Lok Sabha has become a drama. I call it "PLAY by Some". 
The repeated assurances from the FM and the Govt. did not help, FIIs pulled out close to 18000 crs from the markets. The issue is How we can build the confidence?. Our markets are shallow and any further pull-out would create much greater damage.
Now Nifty has support at 5842,5806 levels and it shall not trade below 5760 level. Then the markets are likely to touch 6350 level in the near term. The markets will consolidate arround 5750-6050 before it before it takes a leap jumps to 6350.
The RIL may again test 840-50 level. The counters like HUL,TCS, INFY may slide, the banking counter may inch up before they fall again. The test for the last leg of fall may come from ICICI. The RBI may ease, rate cuts in SEP is expected. I think the markets will gain momentum with the support from RIL, INFY and TCS and other heavy weights. 

Now the Nifty top 10 momentum is more based on ITC, RIL, INFY, HDFC, HDFC Bank, TCS, ICICI, HUL, LT ONGC

ITC
10.66
RELIANCE
7.71
INFY
7.41
HDFC
6.61
HDFCBANK
6.26
ICICIBANK
5.67
TCS
4.77
LT
3.63
HINDUNILVR
3.6
ONGC
2.83

FII flows to India down 36%....

No longer hot: FII flows to India down 36% so far in 2013ARVIND JAYARAM  Also pull out over $7 b; move to Japan, US, Pakistan BL RESEARCH BUREAU:  

Foreign institutional investment in India is down 36.2 per cent so far in calendar 2013, signalling that the country can no longer claim to be among the hottest global investment destinations.Portfolio investors have instead shifted their sights to countries that offer higher returns, such as Japan and even Pakistan.

The latest data show that FIIs pumped $9.3 billion into Indian equities and debt during the January 1-July 23 period. The net inflows would have been higher had it not been for a sudden reversal in investor sentiment in June, when FIIs pulled out $5.6 billion from the debt market. Around $1.8 billion also flowed out from the equities segment, which can be largely attributed to FIIs offloading stake in Hindustan Unilever under the company’s share-buyback programme. The pullout trend continued in July, with the withdrawal of $2.9 billion by FIIs up to July 23 in a sign of wariness among foreign investors.

APAN GAINS

So, where have the FIIs been deploying their money instead? It appears that a chunk of the funds sucked out of the Indian market could have been redeployed in Japan, which saw net portfolio investment inflows of $8.8 billion in the first 23 days of July.
In the seven days leading up to July 23, Japan attracted $4 billion of fresh FII money. Net FII inflows into Japan were up a staggering 1,495.2 per cent in the first seven months of the year — a whopping $94.4 billion. The Nikkei is up 41.7 per cent this year compared with a 3.2 per cent rise in the Sensex.
Investors have also begun ratcheting up their investments in the US, with the world’s largest economy on the road to recovery at long last. Data from the US Federal Reserve indicate that foreign investors have hiked their holdings of US corporate bonds by $12 billion in the first five months of 2013. In the corresponding previous period, they had pulled out $26.6 billion from US corporate bonds.
Foreign investment in US treasury bills was also up 7.5 per cent in the January-May 2013 period. However, the US equity market saw lower net foreign capital inflows of $13.6 billion in the first five months compared with $21 billion in 2012.
This situation is likely to have changed dramatically in June that saw the dollar post significant gains against a basket of global currencies, heightening the attraction of US investments. The Dow Jones index is up 18.8 per cent this year and the Nasdaq, 18.5 per cent.

40-FOLD RISE

During 2013, Pakistan reported a huge 40-fold increase in foreign investment flows, at $435.4 million. This saw the Karachi-100 rising 40.5 per cent so far this year.
Emerging markets, such as the Philippines, also seem to have moved out of the FII radar this year, with a 24 per cent decline in net inflows. Indonesia and Thailand have seen net FII fund outflows during the year. .
(This article was published on July 25, 2013)