At striking distance….?

As posted on 15th July-07 titled…. The “Expansion-Extended”-global integration, clearly mentioned that the markets are likely to enjoy the real boom and likely to test new highs every time. (…Pls. read the full text).
…….Even if we go by the P/E ratio rule, the current P/E works out to be 21.63 at 4509 and the historical experience used as a measure to extrapolate, the low P/E at 17-18 and high at 29-30 times. Even if there was no surprises in the growth in the earnings, the rule of “averages” helps to arrive P/E @ 17.5+29.5= 23.5, on a conservative basis Nifty could touch 4509*23.5/21.6 works out to be 4900+.

It is those who win the battle are those who are determined to win. The market provides opportunity to every one those who understand it.

The world is celebrating….

The gains made yesterday are intact and indices are advancing for more gains. The long-term growth story of India is bright and improving day after day as the world events unfolding for our gains. As they loose, we stand to gain on our educated youthful population strength, the long coastline for exploration, large tracks of mineral rich forest covered hills and never the less barren lands for plantations to generate bio-fuels. In short every thing is rosy as the virgin unexploited resource reserves are blessing us.
But at the stock market, day-to-day fluctuations are common and tend to behave on the demand-supply principle. So the markets are likely to open high but see some profit booking in the stocks. The Relcap, Kotak Bank, Reliance energy and Aban are ripe for correction along with the other banking lot.The metals are buoyant and can advance in future, a correction is an opportunity to buy in SAIL, Hindalco. The techs may get some relief rally. When every body is celebrating, Pharma sector healing the wounds. The auto sector is likely to correct after the Sep. quarter results.

Bears weep....WIPED out…?

The remarkable rally occurred in the Indian stock market with the positive global cues. The splendid response to the Fed rate cut by the markets is beyond my expectation. I am bullish as a whole but expected a small correction before it could test new high (pls. read earlier posts). The counters except Reliance, rest are waiting to cross their high resistance levels. But the fabulous move by RIL along with the banks like HDFC,HDFC bank, ICICI, SBI and the heavy weights like ONGC, Bharti, RCOM, Infosys, TCS, Tata Steel, SAIL and many more added fuel to the fire. The Sugars made a come back on the news of Ethanol usage and GoI support to the recovery of the industry.
I expected more room in the reality sector, sugessted for delivery especially in DLF (first-3/9/07)after it crossed 603 and asked to reenter at 618 (6/9/07) and again buy at 640 levels ( again third time- 17/9/07) that came yesterday to 643 and today simply 12% gain at Rs 720/-.
The new high can take the fresh journey from here as the bottom support was made at 4450 – 4503 levels for 10 trading sessions. The all time highs are in RIL, RPL, IPCL, REL, HDFC, HDFC bank, ABB, BHEL, Tata Steel, SAIL Sterlite and Grasim.

FED feeds - boost to BULLS!

THE WORLD IS JUBILIANT OVER THE Fed rate cut by 50 basis points. The indices are trading by 2-3% surge in their valuations. The yester day move in our markets is a clear anticipated low risk high profit signal. Today the markets are likely to open above 4585 and may close above 4606 and high may cross 4618-21 resistance level.

The best bets are in the banking sector of medium stocks like Vijaya bank, DCB, YES bank and PFC as in news. The softwares likely to participate as a recovery mode and in anticipation of Insurance BPO business in the next 3-5 years. The RCOM has support at 535, RIL support at 2039-41, ONGC support at 835-36, SBI support at 1681-83 and ICICI has support at 916-18 level. The software are fresh to participate in the rally as Sataym has support at 421, Infy at 1801-03, TCS above 1006 and Wipro good above 453. The volumes in the recent four trading sessions can through some light on the market operations.

Early bird catches the fish but being late u r sure of the market movement- balance accordingly that suits u r style of trading. For swing & Day traders, there is nothing right as short or long to make money but mint money from the movements. One may have either “up or down” view on market but ultimately shall respect the market movement.

The Bears lost the day but….

The Bulls could trap the Bears by bringing down the Nifty in the early trades and the Nifty took U- turn from 4481 level. The run-up to cross the resistance at 4506-08 level can be observed in the chart. This is to make the Bears to take a back step and cover the shorts made by the weak hearts. Today’s move is clearly to eliminate the previous two days shorts. The technical levels though favour the bulls at this point in time but not a good place to carry the deliveries for a longer period.
I am supporting the bears as most of the counters are saturated and hanging around those levels as the Nifty is not going any where for the last one week. These behaviors can be a consolidate move at higher level but the level of operation doesn’t support the argument. Tomorrow, the Nifty opening above 4563 and the low should be above 4520-23 level, shall trade above 4569 level for an hour can be considered as a good sign as the bottom building happed for a big move along with RIL above 2063 level and SBI above 1706. The L&T shall trade above 2640, BHEL shall trade above 1935, Bharti above 853 to make this move a favourable attempt made by Bulls to create a landmark in the Nifty.

The crucial move….

As posted yesterday, RPL high touched 131.65 and dropped to 129 low, the suggestion valid till it crosses 131.65. RCOM got resistance at 546.8, SBI touched high at 1675, Tata steel touched high at 714.9. The RIL dropped to 2020 level when lost support at 2035.(..read.. RPL has resistance at 131.65 and could move to get support at 123-122 level.)
The market has moved below the support level can bring joy to bears. Those who want to short shall check the Nifty resistance at 4521-23 and low shall be less than 4485-87.If Nifty trades below 4463 a steep fall is expected (on any given day). The RIL has resistance at 2039-41 (above 2045 strong), SBI has resistance at 1663, RCOM resistance at 539-41 Tata Steel resistance at 711-09.
In case of bull move GMR good for delivery above 786 and stop-loss at 773-71 level. Nifty trades above 4508-09, favours bulls buying opportunities in Punj Lloyd (buy above 291-stop loss at 288-87), NTPC- buy above 183-stop loss at 178.

Move on U R own…

The markets are de-coupling to re-couple after US Fed meet. The US markets are on their top in spite of their Sub-Prime issue. The question at this hour is "How can they..?". The markets manage themselves to move up or down on any issue. Markets never move in rational manner but surprise the other/counter part- it could be Bull or Bear. Markets seldom follow "Logic" but to understand the move one should have "Logic".
The Nifty is facing immediate resistance at 4526-31 levels, likely to see selling pressure below 4493-91 levels. The Nifty is strong and favours bulls above 4509 and below 4500 bears gain strength. The Nifty stocks are getting diminishing investor support is a cause of concern. The RIL has resistance at 2045-48 level, SBI at 1669-71, RCOM at 548-49 and Tata steel at 716-18. The shorts are safe in RIL below 2035 stop-loss at 2046. Buy Bharti above 848-49 stop-loss at 839.
The Indian Markets are likely to wait for the Fed. outcome for a day or two. The realty stocks have more room to surge up side in future but the short-term looks at correction. The DLF may test 640, UNITECH may touch 259-261 levels. The RPL has resistance at 131.65 and could move to get support at 123-122 level. Incase GMR trades above 796 buy with a stop loss of 783 for decent gains.

A good start…ended?.

The world indices are running on green turf in spite of sub-prime hurdles. The Indian markets are waiting for the break out for up side. The positive are intact but the odd favouring bears are increasing day by day. The markets cannot continue to run on weak economic data and the confused political state of affairs either it could be “Ram or 123”.

The break down is due and waiting for the trigger. The markets here are likely to be positive so long Nifty stays above 4509 level and can wait for some time in green before a real journey takes place below 4481 level. Incase ONGC fails to trade above 845 level, RIL fails to trade above 2045 level and ICICI fails to trade above 903 then the markets correct deeply as the weight of its own will become heavy to hold above those levels.