The RBI announced a rate cut both in repo rate and reverse repo rate cut by 100bps to make loans cheaper to stimulate growth. The industry is expecting a CRR cut which did not materialized or postponed for around of press conference.
The central Govt. announced a feeble rate cut on diesel can not make a substantial impact on the transport sector but beneficial self owned generator operators especially in cement sector and for some emergency power generators. Like wise the RBI measures won’t affect the market at large as the banks has to borrow from RBI to lend and they will be under scanner. So the liberty of lending is being fixed but the paper statements of availability of adequate liquidity cannot trigger the economic activity. The reasons are simple as the consumption from exports contacted will become excess supply at home and the hype of recession across the world will make the buyer in India to think twice before “commits”.
The growth in reality is there but postponed for various reasons can get some bottom support temporarily at least at the stock prices. The encouragement to housing below 20 lakh category is a good sign.
I personally think that the stock markets already factored the 100 bps cut in repo and reverse repo rates can little be over exuberated but the housing and reality may rise. No big surprise, so just follow the global trend for time being.
Saturday, December 06, 2008
The haunt of global…..
The markets are interested in participate the trends of the global economy despite of its decoupling nature once in a week to maintain the bottom above 2600 level. The Nifty low made at 2701.35, got well above the strong support at 2673-76 level but it got resistance at 2820, failed to cross the initial resistance at2832-36 level. The previous levels were not breached but the ONGC and ICICI bank are going to play a decisive role to give direction to Nifty.
The continued action in the media stocks rocking the markets as the election results followed big fight for parliament election campaign and the no less viewer eye balls for the terrorist news coverage improved market capitalization to many listed companies by more than 30%.
The techs will recover once the doom period of out-sourcing stand of Obama is clear in regulations & acts until then the range bound will keep shifting day after day.
The skeptics of reality sector got some decent price rise of more than 20% put their wishes in action placed a cap on the up move but the Bulls have hopes on Govt’s stimulus package. The petro rate cut will further ease on the inflation but the transport costs neither decrease due to this cut nor increase the volume.
The RBI package can add considerable impact on the direction of the Nifty, if it favours the Bulls, then the Nifty will cross the 3100 level with out any resistance.
The continued action in the media stocks rocking the markets as the election results followed big fight for parliament election campaign and the no less viewer eye balls for the terrorist news coverage improved market capitalization to many listed companies by more than 30%.
The techs will recover once the doom period of out-sourcing stand of Obama is clear in regulations & acts until then the range bound will keep shifting day after day.
The skeptics of reality sector got some decent price rise of more than 20% put their wishes in action placed a cap on the up move but the Bulls have hopes on Govt’s stimulus package. The petro rate cut will further ease on the inflation but the transport costs neither decrease due to this cut nor increase the volume.
The RBI package can add considerable impact on the direction of the Nifty, if it favours the Bulls, then the Nifty will cross the 3100 level with out any resistance.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
The Vengeance of Bulls…
The Bulls settled scores with Bears to cover their positions in the Banking giant SBI. The RIL has shown its strength lately but firmly. The infrastructure stocks sky rocketed as if there was a Bull run going. The net result is a gain of more than 132 points on Nifty.
I clearly mentioned in my last posting as …(.. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions…). The RIL once crossed the resistance above 1093 shooted upto 1170, SBI is strong above 1085 made a low at 1095 touched a high of 1175 but the only special mention required is for ONGC, failed to cross the 680 level today and it has to cross the resistance.
The inflation was at 8.4% a considerable drop from a top around 12% a few months back is very encouraging. This can further fall if the petro prices are cut and liquidity is infused can kick start the economic activity back on fast track.The markets have good bounce with volumes in beaten down sectors like Reality and metals but the laggards participated with low volume, tech need no special mention.
The major economies like England reduced the interest rates and the France opted for a stimuli package to boost the ailing economy. We are no less than other but our heads need a stimulus to announce it.
As mentioned earlier posts that … The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow in favour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels. Now the markets are in different orbit will take time to make a significant move to cross the 3080 resistance but the bottom support is at 2635-45 level, which may be challenged if things worsen then we may test new lows again but it will be for a stronger bounce.
The kick start generated today may consume some time to gain the momentum as we are coming out of woods/darkness. The pessimism cannot be over lapped with positive feel with this kind of move but the foundations were laid.
I clearly mentioned in my last posting as …(.. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions…). The RIL once crossed the resistance above 1093 shooted upto 1170, SBI is strong above 1085 made a low at 1095 touched a high of 1175 but the only special mention required is for ONGC, failed to cross the 680 level today and it has to cross the resistance.
The inflation was at 8.4% a considerable drop from a top around 12% a few months back is very encouraging. This can further fall if the petro prices are cut and liquidity is infused can kick start the economic activity back on fast track.The markets have good bounce with volumes in beaten down sectors like Reality and metals but the laggards participated with low volume, tech need no special mention.
The major economies like England reduced the interest rates and the France opted for a stimuli package to boost the ailing economy. We are no less than other but our heads need a stimulus to announce it.
As mentioned earlier posts that … The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow in favour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels. Now the markets are in different orbit will take time to make a significant move to cross the 3080 resistance but the bottom support is at 2635-45 level, which may be challenged if things worsen then we may test new lows again but it will be for a stronger bounce.
The kick start generated today may consume some time to gain the momentum as we are coming out of woods/darkness. The pessimism cannot be over lapped with positive feel with this kind of move but the foundations were laid.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
The fight for survival…..
The day displayed a strong fight for survival of the market at 2650 level. As posted earlier the high light of the day is the smart recovery of SBI to close above 1085. The RIL is struggling to gain strength to move up but it displayed a decent fight against the Bears. The ONGC and Bharti were subdued despite good effort by the Banking lot to move up. The star of the day is Tata Steel posted 10% rise with huge volume and the DLF made equal volume with good show to cross the 191-93 resistance. The LIC Housing along and SUN gave above 20% rise in the non index shares is a clear sign of shuffling and choosing the future out performers.
The techs lost the sheen due to foreign brokerage house CLSA report dented the growth in share rise, Infosys chopped down by 4.3% Wipro TCS and Satyam were no exception. The teleco lost value by 3-5% but the autos recovered on short covering. The Banking sector posted decent gains on the hopes of fall in inflation that can force the Central bank to take an early decision on rate cuts.
The Nifty is at cross roads and waiting for break out. In case the RIL fails to cross the 1093 level and trades below 1040-35 then the markets will easily touch the 2000-2100 level with out much resistance from Bulls. The SBI gained but the RIL, ONGC and Bharti are in negative territory with new members from tech sector. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions.
In case BHEL and LT recovers then there was some glimmer of hope in the capital goods and Infrastructure sector that build due to the NHAI announcements.
The techs lost the sheen due to foreign brokerage house CLSA report dented the growth in share rise, Infosys chopped down by 4.3% Wipro TCS and Satyam were no exception. The teleco lost value by 3-5% but the autos recovered on short covering. The Banking sector posted decent gains on the hopes of fall in inflation that can force the Central bank to take an early decision on rate cuts.
The Nifty is at cross roads and waiting for break out. In case the RIL fails to cross the 1093 level and trades below 1040-35 then the markets will easily touch the 2000-2100 level with out much resistance from Bulls. The SBI gained but the RIL, ONGC and Bharti are in negative territory with new members from tech sector. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions.
In case BHEL and LT recovers then there was some glimmer of hope in the capital goods and Infrastructure sector that build due to the NHAI announcements.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Recovered but weak…..
The markets took the support once it touched the low at 2571 level and it managed to claw back to close at 2657 level a much needed support to Nifty above 2630 level and the weakness in RIL and ONGC is a great concern at this point in time.
The Australia cut the lending rates by 100 bps and our top brass discussing for the timing. The stimulus package announced to has some bearing on Infrastructure companies but the release of funds and the cost that matters a lot at this hour. The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow infavour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels.
In case the resistance at 2750 level crossed with ease, close above 2735-42 will add value to Bulls efforts. The bears will cover the positions as the positive news unfolds as progress progresses and the Nifty may touch again 3280-3300 level with short covering.
The only threatening concern unfolding is the verbal war with neighbours on Mumbai blasts can easily change the direction in case the situation provoked for a war on the terrorist camps.
The RIL has to cross the 1120 level, SBI has to cross the 1085 level and ONGC has to trade above 705level to see the Nifty to scale for new territory above 2860 level.
The Australia cut the lending rates by 100 bps and our top brass discussing for the timing. The stimulus package announced to has some bearing on Infrastructure companies but the release of funds and the cost that matters a lot at this hour. The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow infavour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels.
In case the resistance at 2750 level crossed with ease, close above 2735-42 will add value to Bulls efforts. The bears will cover the positions as the positive news unfolds as progress progresses and the Nifty may touch again 3280-3300 level with short covering.
The only threatening concern unfolding is the verbal war with neighbours on Mumbai blasts can easily change the direction in case the situation provoked for a war on the terrorist camps.
The RIL has to cross the 1120 level, SBI has to cross the 1085 level and ONGC has to trade above 705level to see the Nifty to scale for new territory above 2860 level.
Monday, December 01, 2008
The terror lead…..
Now the markets are feeling the real tremors of the terror lead market progress that towards South. The November series closed with a positive not despite of the threats, Bulls interested to participate in the global recovery journey.
The December series started with a positive note in the morning but closed deep in red in the late hour selling due to weak European openings and the political uncertainty at the centre along with the visible contraction of growth due poor sales figures from auto sector and decline in export earnings add weight to drag the indices fall faster than expected to touch a low of 2669.50 and closed at 2682.90
The markets witness the selling at the higher level due to the negative developments. In my earlier post it was mentioned that the support was at 2663-61 level where today Nifty took bottom support. The worry some factor is that the SBI is trading below 1085 and the RIL closed below 1120 level and the ONGC well below 695levels.
The Global weakness may force Nifty to touch 2581-83 level but the challenge is the recovery from the lows. In case Nifty closes below 2631-33 level for tomorrow, then the markets smell something bigger problem as the rate cuts were postponed and the market friendly policy announcements could put a back seat to tackle the internal security and the foreign affairs can consume lot of time and challenging times a head.
The December series started with a positive note in the morning but closed deep in red in the late hour selling due to weak European openings and the political uncertainty at the centre along with the visible contraction of growth due poor sales figures from auto sector and decline in export earnings add weight to drag the indices fall faster than expected to touch a low of 2669.50 and closed at 2682.90
The markets witness the selling at the higher level due to the negative developments. In my earlier post it was mentioned that the support was at 2663-61 level where today Nifty took bottom support. The worry some factor is that the SBI is trading below 1085 and the RIL closed below 1120 level and the ONGC well below 695levels.
The Global weakness may force Nifty to touch 2581-83 level but the challenge is the recovery from the lows. In case Nifty closes below 2631-33 level for tomorrow, then the markets smell something bigger problem as the rate cuts were postponed and the market friendly policy announcements could put a back seat to tackle the internal security and the foreign affairs can consume lot of time and challenging times a head.
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