The Disappointment continues in Dalal Street but BUDGET may bring some cheer, as well the challenging days are ahead for the retail investors who trapped
at the 7800 level. The markets are always not courteous to traders who plunge
to grab the” ticking-opportunity” for INSTANT GAINS.
The strength of the markets will not fissile unless
decisively NIFTY breaks the earlier BEST SUPPORT levels at 7280 range. The fall
in Banks are not due to VOLUME based selling but heavy UN-winding of positions.
The banks will be under pressure so long SBI trades below 2680 and ICICI trades
below 1448-52 level. The B-Nifty may drift lower but will bounce to new highs
soon…….Now, the BUDGET DAY naturally carries HUGE volatility but the POSITIONS
will be AFRESH OPENED.
PM-MODI & FM- ARUN JAITLY will focus on curbing
INFLATION and Fiscal Prudence but the Govt spending will be increased with
INCOME from ASSET SALE. The FDI in high speed trains, FDI in Defence Sector
allowed and FDI/FII limits in insurance sector will be raised. The favourite
areas will be HOUSING for POOR and UNIVERSITIES, HEALTH CARE along with revival of economic activity through
factories.
There will a decent amount set for women empowerment and security.
The focus will be on EDUCATION sector and Renewable Energy will get decent
boost. The very good news will be thrown opened to Sugar Industry, ETHNOL
mixing by 20% in petrol.
The excise duty reduction on CEMENT and customs reduction
newsprint imports and tax concession will be offered to LOWER INCOME
Group/BUDGET HOUSES up to 25 lakhs, also the income tax exemption upto Rs
1.5-2lakhs. The IT exemption upto 3 lakhs will be on the cards.
The LUXURY cars/SUVs will be TAXED more and whereas TAX
reduction for 100-125 cc motor cycles and scooters. The be leagued TELECOM
sector will get decent boost by allowing FOREIGN GEAR BOX imports at less
customs duty. The BSNL&MTNL merger
or listing of BSNL after budgeted support, OPTICAL FIBRE companies will get boost
for early RURAL Connectivity for High speed internet and e-Governance plans.
The DISINVESTMENT in ONGC, COIL India and other companies in
metal space will get special boost/benefits for SWEETENING the DEAL. To
discourage the use Alcoholic drinks, increase of tax, but I doubt ITC will be
spared by not increasing taxes on Cigarettes.
The PRIORITY will be given to AGRICULTURE, the COLD STORAGE
and other Mandi facilities will be increased.
The GAS allocation to fertiliser units will be provided.
The Road and PORTS will be given priority by PPP model and FDI in FAST
TRACK TRAINS, duty-reduction to that extent is possible. Special focus will be
laid down for UMPP projects get good benefits for increased POWER Generation,
import of coal will be liberalised, customs duty will be reduced. The POWER and
INFRA companies will be benefitted the most.
The petro product/gas company like reliance may not be
favoured but it will get boost/support for its TELECOM& RETAIL Space.
The Aviation sector will get good support by reduction in
excise duty on FUEL and they will be allowed to buy at Dollar price. Most likely
the STT will be exempted, Dividend tax will be reduced , encouraging equity
culture by allowing PF money invested through ETFs and the 2% surcharge will be
discontinued and ceiling at 35% will be enforced.
OVERALL, the BUDGET may get thumping boost to revive the economy.