It came, went …dust was left….

The results of Infy are no surprise to many but the markets spooked the hopes of Bulls while falling relentlessly. The Nifty lost the bottom support at 4115-11 level and was parked at 4015 and closed at 4049 level with a consolation as this was the first positive close on weekly basis after a long time.

The IIP numbers surprised too many especially to the markets apart from the FM and RBI. The heads need to break their heads to manage the worsening situation forces them to take corrective measures in order to boost the economy and contain the inflation. The job at both hands made them to become busy to speak on economy.

The Infy results brought it to the April month end prices. It ruled two and half months above 1650 and a high at 2030. The results are good and the future out look is not conservative but the markets not enthused.

Yester day I wrote about the Forex losses that came from HCL-tech results and many more companies will publish in the forth coming results.

The Reliance closed below the 2020 level and the next level ….?

Changes in the support levels?.

There are slight changes in the important heavy weights of Nifty which has first support at 4120 level and the second probably the temporary best at 4030 level.The Nifty shall trade above 4180 level to see futher 5% rise. The Infosys results are likely to change sentiment and the Nifty levels. The market always looks for special events and many a times it surprises many.
The Reliance is at the verge of its support at 2020 level and the RPL is struggling to cross the 174 hurdle. The Infosys is good so long it trades above1730 level, Wipro has good support above 435 and will become weak below 421. The TCS is one of the strong counters above 830 and Satyam above 456. The telecom counters are above their support levels but they are showing weakness due to selling pressure above the ruling current levels. The ONGC is struggling to cross the 892 hurdle but it will become weak only below 840.
The positives of yesterday and day before needs to get buying for SBI, REL Infra, NTPC, DLF, ABB and ICICI Bank. The ever escalating inflation figures, the global markets weakness and the challenges of the political parties are likely to dampen the euphoric strength shown by the Bulls.

Just observe I could be wrong: The S.P. support to Govt. strengthened Mr. Amar Sigh and he is (demanding) meeting the officials of different Ministries to dictate the policies of future, sorry I failed to present it correctly; to provide direction to future policies again sorry but the correct presentation is guidance/assistance to varies policy matters.

Waiting for Infosys results….?

The markets not only ours but the Asian markets shrug of the US cues as they are tired of accepting the negatives for the time being. Our markets traded as if they are waiting positive cues from the Tech giant Infosys. As such there was no gross violation in the levels suggested in the earlier postings.
The techs any way produce good results on the back of the depreciated rupee but the surprises will come from the monetary losses due to advance selling of dollars anticipating the rupee strengthening. The dollar-rupee management has become great job at hand to many dollar earning companies. They trade with anticipation of something and the reverse will happen as in the case of day traders do in the market. The result will be same to every one who trade continuously on any markets.
The smaller names are getting buying support in the market is a good sign that the markets are consolidating at the lower levels. This move will help the markets to move further by 10% from these levels. The metal sector got good support and the losers are the auto sector. The real estate pack will loose some market cap in the days to come but the capital goods sector will add value.

Strong bullishness displayed………

The markets soared to new high after it crossed 4100 level as the retail short sellers are in queue to cover.
The lackluster move displayed by the techs showed their strength at the fag end of the trading session. The levels suggested yesterday are valid till they are breached.
To analyse the levels: NTPC is very good above 163, today low is 163. RelInfra is very good above 805 level and the traders might have observed how it rallied from 805 to 845. RCOM is good above 421 level and today low registered at 420. Bharti traded above 731 to reach 758. The Punjlloyd maintained above 230 level. The RIl did not trade below 2025 rallied to 2095 level and the RPL traded at 168-169. The indicators suggested shall not loose their bottom supports to see that markets keep going up wards.
There is a word of caution: A patient discharged from hospital can walk but shall never try jogging/running.

No Left only Right to N-deal….

The UPA govt. lost the support of Left to stay in power to sign the N-deal but manages to garner the like minded parties to corner the Left that the deal is inevitable in current scenario to meet the ever rising energy needs.
So the deal will be through and benefit lots of companies like LT, Punjlloyd, ABB, Areva T&D, Siemens, NTPC, RelInfra and many other smaller companies queuing to cut their share in the cake.
The best thing to the markets is that the uncertainties as odds to Bulls start diluting as the time pass by. The Nifty clearly took support at 3850 level. The banking sector is inviting the MTM loss from their overseas bonds/contracts due to the new guidelines proposed by the RBI and the Reliance weakness crippling the fast run up from these levels.
The frontline stocks likely to advance (for tomorrow & short-term indicators) as the RIL is good above 2025, very good to markets if it can cross 2140 level and shall not trade below 1930 level (last excuse). The RPL shall trade above 167-168 level and shall not trade below 160-161 level.
The RCOM has good support at 405-403 level and good above 421 level. Bharti shall cross and trade above 729-31 level and shall not fall below 706-03. The ONGC shall trade above 886 and shall not trade below 840 level. The NTPC is good above 156 and very good above 163. The Rel Infra is good above 756 and very good if it could trade above 805 level. The Punjlloyd is good above 230 and very good if could cross 246 level but the low shall not breach 204 level.
The tech pack suddenly lost their support and started correcting to adjust to Nifty levels with positive bias.
This may not sound good but the fact is that the bears will not allow the Nifty for a run-up rally with a single/two piece of good news. The smaller political leaders/parities will cry loudly to bring attention for a better bargain could make the Nifty swing widely. During this bold headlines time before seeking the vote of confidence the “deep pocketed” shorts will be covered peacefully. The rally cannot be expected at this point in time as the consolidation has also not happened after the steep sell of fall from 5300 level. So the Nifty may oscillate between 3900-4680 level for July and first half of Aug-08. During this period the crude likely to come around 112-118 dollars and the inflation may show its decline to South-wards.

The pain balm move……

The markets world over are reeling under pressure from the crude weight and the follow-on inflation effects we are no eception but the fall from the heighs on profit booking is a big concern. As a matter of fact the effects of global melt down in equities carry forward to the demand and supply mismatch to commodities and the real estate. The correction in the crude will not give any rally to equities but provide cushion to a fresh free fall.

Now the July-Aug-2007 level is not sacrosanct to hold the Nifty above 4000 level but the looming uncertainties will take the Nifty below 3200 level once the 3800 level is breached. The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty while falling touched without any resistance from the Bulls. Now the markets are on hold from their free fall but the risk takers can try as the adjustments temporarily favour the Bulls.

The weakness in Reliance and the RPL are the major concern as the markets are struggling to accept any wind fall weight from these counters. The fall from highs are a negative signal at this time but the hope lies in the charts as the Nifty closed above 4020 level. In case the Reliance falls below 1950, RPL trades below 161 level then this minor positive sentiment will fade away.

The short term technicals…..

The markets likely to open with positive note as they were tired of negative news and Southward journey. But the up move will be with doubt about the future (now for the next day).

The pure technicals show that the Nifty could move above another 400 points so long it stays above 3945-35 level and Reliance stays above 2025 level. The up move will be sustained for only when the heavy weights shall cross their immediate resistance levels. The frontline counters like Bharati shall cross above 745, Reliance to cross above 2180, ONGC shall cross 900, Infosys shall cross 1800, the TCS shall cross 880, RPL shall cross 178, the UNITECH shall cross 183 and DLF shall cross 440 level.

The worry some factor is that Reliance and RPL counters were noting trading with the momentum as they always.