Why market worries about the US Fiscal Cliff? |
If the Fiscal Cliff deal is not reached, then it can impact the global markets & economies |
Jitendra Kumar Gupta / Mumbai Dec 22, 2012, 12:06 IST
Indian equity markets have corrected almost 2% in last few days ahead of deadline of the US Fiscal Cliff. US Fiscal Cliff is considered to be the biggest road block for the global markets including India because if the Fiscal Cliff deal is not reached that could have a huge impact on the global markets and economies including India. "Markets are hoping for a solution to the US ‘fiscal cliff’ issue because if a solution is not reached, it can impact sentiments negatively. We expect the issue to be resolved and the same can provide relief in short term," says Dipen Shah, Head of Private Client Group Research, Kotak Securities
Origin of Fiscal Cliff
Ever since the global economic crisis hit in the year 2008-09 the world economy importantly the US economy has taken a severe beating. Globally to avert the crisis the central banks have relied on the deficit spending including the US. However the deficit spending also called as money printing and the quantitative easing by the economists came along with huge burden of debt. Similarly in the year 2011, when the US wanted to borrow more money it had to raise the debt ceiling because there is limit to its borrowing which can only be increased with a vote of congress. In the same year the US passed the bill and extended the debt ceiling to $14.3 trillion.
This would not have been possible without the government’s promise of controlling the spending and restoring the tax cuts and other subsidies in the stipulated time so that the fiscal deficit could be controlled. Thus the Budget Control Act 2011 was passed, which said that if it fails to do so and achieve the desired economic growth than that will automatically trigger the restoration of the tax cuts and subsidies. Spending on different programmes like administrative and the defence spending will be cut automatically. Unfortunately the time has come when all these terms of Budget Control Act will expire by the end of December 2012, which is also known as Fiscal Cliff. So the Fiscal Cliff was created due to the series of such actions including the approval of Bush era tax cuts in 2001 and 2003.
http://www.businessstandard.com/india/news/why-market-worries-aboutus-fiscal-cliff/200345/onQuantum of worry Including all the automatic tax increases and spending cuts the estimates suggests that the US economy could take a hit of about $500-600 billion, which is about 4% of its GDP and good enough to take the GDP back to recession. On an average about $2,200 extra in taxes will be paid by the average family. Link to India Although India does not have much dependence on the US, but a possible downturn in the US is going to hit the world economy particularly in the backdrop of fragile economic conditions in the Europe and China. This will certainly have its impact on the global markets as that will impact the sentiments and liquidity (foreign money flow), both so far have been supporting the Indian equity markets. Also there is risk averseness among the investors because of which there have been selling in the market. Investors are also seeking for more clarity on this issue before committing any fresh money. In the interim despite all the positive policy announcements, hopes of rate cut and economic news the bigger issue of Fiscal Cliff could keep the markets under pressure. “As of now fiscal cliff issues continue to overshadow any other economic news,” says Amar Ambani, Head of Research, IIFL. Good news is that some progress on this front is already made and the economists are saying that there is about 60-75% probability of the deal. So the probability is with the market, and if that actually materialise there is feeling that the Sensex could go back to 20,000 to 21000 levels. |
Brussels: ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steel maker, is writing down the value of its European business by $4.3 billion, underscoring its gloom about prospects for the region’s recession-hit manufacturers.The group, formed in 2006 when the steel business of India-born Lakshmi Mittal bought Europe’s Arcelor for about $33 billion, said on Friday steel demand had fallen about 8% in Europe this year and there was no sign of a quick recovery.As a result, it was writing down the goodwill—the value of intangible assets like a brand rather than physical assets like machinery—of its European operations by 87%.“It is negative, but it shouldn’t really be a big surprise that the book value of its European business was too high,” said a London-based analyst who asked not to be named.At 1045 GMT, ArcelorMittal shares were down 2.9% at €7.74, one of the biggest falls by a European blue chip stock and reversing gains made earlier this week.
The $500-billion-a-year steel industry, a gauge of the global economy, has slowed sharply this year from last as a moderation in China’s economic growth has compounded weak demand from austerity-ravaged Europe.The World Steel Association in October forecast steel demand would rise by 2.1% in 2012, down from 6.2% in 2011. It had forecast 3.6% growth in April. Other steel makers are hurting too. Earlier this month, Germany’s ThyssenKrupp posted an annual net loss of €4.7 billion.Weak point
Europe is a particular weak point, as austerity drives aimed at tackling a sovereign debt crisis have cut demand for construction and cars, the steel sector’s largest markets. The euro zone’s manufacturing sector has contracted for 17 straight months. ArcelorMittal, which makes about 6-7% of the world’s steel, said steel demand in Europe had fallen about 29% since 2007, when the financial crisis started.
But it highlighted better trends in the US, where it said demand was up almost 8% this year and is now about 10% lower than in 2007.ArcelorMittal, whose output is more than double that of its nearest rival, has already announced the closure of blast furnaces in France and Belgium, with other operations temporarily idled due to overcapacity.The writedown represents over a third of ArcelorMittal’s overall goodwill of $12.5 billion reported at the end of last year. The group, around 40% owned by the Mittal family, took on about $6.6 billion of goodwill when it bought Arcelor.It said the writedown would be a non-cash charge in its fourth quarter results and would not affect net debt or core profit. Before the writedown, analysts had on average forecast the group would make $529.5 million in net profit this year, and $7.1 billion in core profit, according to StarMine. Reuters Philip Blenkinsop contributed to this story.
http://www.livemint.com/Industry/d5WEVpPyBLnFP0cpYBmTiN/ArcelorMittal-takes-43-bn-writedown-on-European-operations.html