Not inflation, now trade deficit?

The markets will correct on the concerns of the burgeoning trade deficit month after month. The exports are decreasing and the imports are increasing, the situation will lead to a condition where it becomes every body’s concern. The beauty of the Govt.s job is to make some damage to a smooth going economy in the pretext of managing a situation under political compulsions and correcting with other concerns. The recent example is the Sugar export ban, now the govt. offering the incentives as hospital charges to regain the health of the industry. The next is the cement issues and bashing the banking sector making the rupee appreciation. Now the incentives are around for the textile and leather exporters. There was a clear lack of coordination among the different ministries and foul playing with the economy with their short sighted independent approach.

The strength by techs!

The techs have provided the necessary support to float the Nifty above the support level in spite of the weakness in the heavy weights. Banks are showing their resilience to a downward move. The strength of Infosys made the Sensex float in green through out the day. The journey of mid-caps especially the reality sector worth mentioning. The narrow band with of Nifty movement can be a positive sign so long it trades above 4281-83 level. Now the Nifty upward movement by heavy weights can take considerable time, until the technical correction is over.

Asia positive, ADRs negative

The Nifty can open positive as the cues are positive but difficult to maintain at the 4286 level. So long it trades below 4281, it favors bears. The market may take breathe for a while to take a directional call as of now be with the fluctuating trend on either side. The RIL shall trade above 1748-1751, ONGC above 916-918 and SBI above 1341 to continue the up move. The ICICI started the south move and should not trade above 928.

So long …so good

The Nifty could stage new highs time and again but the Sensex could not able to do so because of the tech weight age, especially due to Infosys.
The Nifty is good so long as it trades above the immediate support at 4241 but the fall can be seen only when Sensex makes the history.

The Nifty May series has done good job with out major damage to the investors. As the new series begin tomorrow, lots of activities in terms of IPOs & NFOs fund rising and new associations at in the skies. The Govt. will focus on agriculture and retaining power tactics will impress the voters. So try to focus those industries that have direct relation with the common man. After a reasonable correction pick up in fertilizers, tractors and FMCGs but not banks. The true colors of the rising interests can be seen in stains in their balance sheets of June and the drain of profits in Sep-07. So try to protect from the hard ships but the FMCGs and hotels will do well.

I am thankful to those who share the usefulness & benefits of the blog and request the viewers to find time to post their comments.

No bottoms break out!

The tremors from China did not affect the Indian markets though there was selling pressure but the important bottom supports were not breached as posted, either for Nifty or the top 4 heavy weights like RIL, Bharti, SBI and ONGC but the catastrophic cycle effect can be felt tomorrow though F&O closing day.
The Nifty can see down side in June series due to global and local factors. As of now there was no visible cracks seen to the fortress but suggestions from one week are even now valid as “no longs for long”.

The red is a danger sign!

The Asian markets are in red and our markets likely to open below 4261 level and continue to trade below 4173 level and even can touch 4229 level breaking the support at 4241 level. The weakness as usual in techs can infuse in banks.

The RIL likely to face pressure and the SBI in news with its subsidiaries, Bharti may face selling pressure. Tata steel and auro pharma in positive news. Be cautious and good luck.

The 'all time high close' day

The investors are behaving like day traders, so is our markets behaviour. The markets are facing selling pressure even for one percent rise. The long term fundamentals could be strong but technically the Nifty finding difficulty to advance further with strength. As posted, though the Nifty could close above 4293 and created a new high but failed to move up on broad based sectoral gains on several fronts.

Most of the fund managers tired to extend their support to heavy weights as many companies published their results and the shopping spree of Indian industry seems to be over except for selling the promoters stake to make good money while the Sensex shines. The banking sector is the dire need of money to meet the BASEL-II statutory norms. So pushing the stocks could fetch few more rupees with out much pain.

The May series could see much more choppy days ahead of the expiry. The market is ripe for diluting the holdings by 50% and re-enter when the Nifty touches 3920-3880 regions. The wait and watch is the best principle for the small investor whose averaging power is much less. No leverage be encouraged in the market at this point in time. No long term longs, the investors should enjoy the up move like a trader.

The spread of green…

The world markets are in green and could spread it’s color to India. The carry forward effect can be seen in the markets world over. The Nifty should open above 4251 and shall not break 4106 at the lower level to test new high once again. As the earlier posts suggests a view that no longs for longer periods until Nifty builds its bottom strong. The Nifty should trade above 4200 up to Thursday so that the shorts can be absorbed comfortably. The RIL and ONGC could add strength if they trade above 1721 and 928. To day techs could advance in the morning and profit booking cannot be ruled at the end of the day.

Strength beyond expectation…

The Nifty could show its strength beyond many analysts expectation. The world markets were weak but India became an exception. The RIL though did not breach the bottom support as well failed to trade above 1721-23. In the earlier posts expressed a view that techs will bounce from lows, which happened on Friday with small support from Autos.

However the Nifty bounced back is a positive indication of the Bulls strength, but the negative developments are cropping in support of bears. The May series should end above 4200 and the heavy weights should trade above their short term support levels-RIL above1723, ONGS above 928, ICICI above 921and SBI above 1321.