The IT industry is grappling with difficult economic environment due to it over dependence on US and Europe was forcibly thrown into more troubled waters due to Satyam fiasco. The Corporate IT tycoons of first generation shying with ignominy due to this episode and their survival will be more difficult with checks and balances.
None acted with responsibility-The company regulators, top level “lapse of vigilance” at the Foreign Exchange inflow, the lending Banks, the leeway handling of accounts by the PWC and above all the analysts of FII, DII & MF heads with mindless heads made Ramalinga Raju to ditch his company and share holders.
The greed & power to rule the corporate sector putting pressure to “perform by any means” is fast spreading to the developing countries. These kinds of manipulation are very common in DevelopeD countries how ever strict there are aftermath. Here this case is only a sample of the lot in the making and many more will be un-earthed once the graveyard is open for excavation.
The kind of financial irregularities happened at Satyam may happen in other first generation companies if the regulators lay their hands and meticulous eyes to nab the “white-collar crime” culprits. The style of publishing inflated numbers in the balance sheet shall be scrutinized thoroughly and put them behind bars to send a strong message not necessarily to the rest of the world but to these “Financial Vultures” not only eat their birth child company but also cripple the nation’s image and economy.
On Friday the Infra & reality stocks tumbled were finding difficult to trace the bottom as the slide is so massive that no body could understand what happened to who but the whole trauma of buyers was shifted in minutes to sellers when the management of DLF “buy back” was heavily initiated. The stock fell on rumors that the CFO sold more than one lakh shares, like a snow avalanche slide the DLF fell from 225 to 144 and bounced with vengeance to again 220-25 level. The DLF was bought by the promoters to a tune of 17.5 lakh shares at an average price of Rs 193.40 and the total shares bought till date is only 21.4 lakhs.
The Satyam promoters could sell their shares by pledging with IL &FS and others much above 150 per share as the Satyam shares were sold more than 2.14 crore shares when the average price is above 175 by the lenders intimated to Exchanges on 2nd Jan, 1.029 crores of shares sold and intimated to NSE on 6th Jan and again 85.3 lakh share sold and intimated on 8th Jan-09. The poor investors hoping some miracle will happen and turn their fortune are still holding by praying the almighty. The people who burned their energy to build the empire for intelligent master mind rouge are left to their fate called 50,000+ employees looking for help/ recognition for their abilities and service.
The employees who sensed the fall sold their shares- on 22-12-2008 Manisha Mehta-5200, V. Murali-10,000, A.S.Murty-19000, V. Murali-20,000; on 17-12-2008 M.SriRam-1000, A.S.Murty-21,000. On 16-12-2008 Satyam announced the Board decision of buying Maytas.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Thursday, January 08, 2009
THE UNANSWERED…………
The New CEO Ram has everything but no to that matters most- “The Information”.
The markets shall face the "test of the depth" to face the selling pressure incase it unwarranted. The stock markets across the globe live in a hostile situation where “The analyst gives wrong calls, the auditors certify any thing for a fee, the promoters publish cooked results and deviated misinformation’s, the fund houses buy with vision of “associations developed” in the nights but the poor retail investor invests the hard earnings for a lifeline of future. At the end of the day the retail investor looses every thing for a toss.
The markets shall face the "test of the depth" to face the selling pressure incase it unwarranted. The stock markets across the globe live in a hostile situation where “The analyst gives wrong calls, the auditors certify any thing for a fee, the promoters publish cooked results and deviated misinformation’s, the fund houses buy with vision of “associations developed” in the nights but the poor retail investor invests the hard earnings for a lifeline of future. At the end of the day the retail investor looses every thing for a toss.
QUESTIONS ???????.........
The unanswered questions are opening in Satyam saga as flood water falls from the dam once the gates are opened for free flow.
The markets were stunned by the financial scandal at Satyam and were surprised to accept the truth of “ALL LIES” by Raju.
The market fell heavily as the built up open position was huge that to in the absence of FII holiday it was built to hand over at higher prices was belied due to the un-expected fiasco at Satyam. The important FII investors resorted for selling at the day’s low price fore tells that they are serious to sell INDIA. The experts are revealing that there are more companies to be micro-scoped for facts rather than accepting.
In case Nifty fails to cross 2957-60 and the low breaches 2812-16 level, then the serious consequences are built in the system. The big names of Indian industry will be doubted for sure and their current valuations will be corrected accordingly.
The markets were stunned by the financial scandal at Satyam and were surprised to accept the truth of “ALL LIES” by Raju.
The market fell heavily as the built up open position was huge that to in the absence of FII holiday it was built to hand over at higher prices was belied due to the un-expected fiasco at Satyam. The important FII investors resorted for selling at the day’s low price fore tells that they are serious to sell INDIA. The experts are revealing that there are more companies to be micro-scoped for facts rather than accepting.
In case Nifty fails to cross 2957-60 and the low breaches 2812-16 level, then the serious consequences are built in the system. The big names of Indian industry will be doubted for sure and their current valuations will be corrected accordingly.
….The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The
earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were archived but the up move
could be a result of short covering. Now the markets are in bull grip as the
momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god
above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level.
The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level
despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an
off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serious correction of
20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead
the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
…..The SBI, ONGC, Bharti and Reliance are becoming weak but just moving up with unease. The Infosys results and the fiasco of Satyam can impact the sentiment. The Reliance is good above and can touch 1330-1350 range but the resistance at 1372 is crucial.The ONGC is one of the weakest face resistances at 693-97 level and at 717-20 level.The SBI is the best chart to observe has resistance at 1380-83 level but has good support at 1218-22 level. The Bharti is being in the accumulation phase. The
well drawn boundaries for it are 749 at the higher side and the 650-60 level is
at the lower-side. The DLF made a second trial to stay above 305 but the real
test it faces at 326-30 level but a clear bottom building is happening at 220-16
level. The immediate support level existed at 260-66 level. In view of the RCOM
plans and the future 3G auction it built a bottom at 187-93 level and the second
level in the process at 221-226.
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
The cemented move…
There was no change in the economic out look of the globe or any country in specific but the stocks are moving North. It is the beauty of the markets that it behaves in style and unique. For those who argue the ticker will be side lined to curse the fate or to make a point of discussion but the ticker will journey the designed course irrespective of the tag that was attached “bear market rally/huge short covering/ bull market in the making”.
The slow economic growth was not fully discounted across the globe. The Indian markets were no exception but the rally triggered after the expiry will take Nifty to 3280 level because of the crude hardening. The rise crude prices will strengthen the RIL, ONGC and RPL. The RIL may start production of KG basin resources.
The readers might have observed the Cement companies move that benefited the most in the Stimulus package-2. The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were achied but the up move could be a result of short covering.
Now the markets are in bull grip as the momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level. The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serios correction of 20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
The slow economic growth was not fully discounted across the globe. The Indian markets were no exception but the rally triggered after the expiry will take Nifty to 3280 level because of the crude hardening. The rise crude prices will strengthen the RIL, ONGC and RPL. The RIL may start production of KG basin resources.
The readers might have observed the Cement companies move that benefited the most in the Stimulus package-2. The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were achied but the up move could be a result of short covering.
Now the markets are in bull grip as the momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level. The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serios correction of 20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
The test of stimulation…..
The test of stimulation…..
Due to net failure at my end failed to publish but for record now….
The Nifty is good above 2860 and likely to stay above for some time. The immediate bad news is remote and the positive news keep flowing till the Nifty crosses 3250 and touch 3280 for stop-losses get triggered to clear the weak hands. In case the markets doesn’t find the required bottom push to scale up but still not weak for a free fall as the expectations from Obama is high. So the markets will swing between
2700-3100 to the weak results show and hopes of miracles from the future.
The local news will be adverse as the Govt. is preparing to put pressure on the PAK and their counter “war drama”. The PM will be busy in tackling the external/curbing terrorism could put the economic reforms on the backburner. The political equations will start demanding the “time & attention” as the April-May may heats up the capital.The SBI, ONGC, Bharti and Reliance are becoming weak but just moving up with unease. The Infosys results and the fiasco of Satyam can impact the sentiment.The Reliance is good above and can touch 1330-1350 range but the resistance at 1372 is crucial. The ONGC is one of the
weakest face resistances at 693-97 level and at 717-20 level.
The SBI is the best chart to observe has resistance at 1380-83 level but has good support at 1218-22 level.
The Bharti is being in the accumulation phase. The well drawn
boundaries for it are 749 at the higher side and the 650-60 level is at the
lower-side.The DLF made a second trial to stay above 305 but the real test it faces at 326-30 level but a clear bottom building is happening at 220-16 level. The immediate support level existed at 260-66 level.
In view of the RCOM plans and the future 3G auction it built a bottom at 187-93 level and the second level in the process at 221-226.
Sunday, January 04, 2009
The challenge ahead…..
The govt. announced stimulus package-2 was short of satisfaction as there was more room left to do and the govt. announced that the doors were closed for now till the new financial accounting year begins. So the domestic financial and major policy measures are announced except the 3G auction. The international news and the global indices will be in the drivers’ seat as the new govt. in US will determine the next course of action.
The RBI announced policy measures will carry a positive start on Monday unless the Asian markets open deep in red. The banking sector has been waiting and the rates cuts were already factored in the bank stocks. This can be seen as the HDFC has failed to cross the resistance at 1560 level and the SBI took long time to trade above 1335-39 level. The reality sector though raised on big hopes were belied as the 20 lakh bracket was not raised to 30 lakhs is a big set back as the demand and profitability was in and above that 30 lakhs. The Monday trades can change the direction but for now the banks may look South.
The package has unilaterally given benefit to cement companies and to the logistic sector that can afford to buy. The IIFCL will spur the demand but not immediately. The IDFC and PFC are cautious on the demand as the industry is not jubilant to spend on BOLT projects.
The duty cuts on steel products have negative impact on the sagging industry. The reality sector that uses longs gets the benefit and will form a cap on raising the prices due to demand revival by the steel industry.
The overall balancing act by the Govt. will keep the Nifty crawling but not a break-out shoot up with this stimulus and monetary measures.
The RBI announced policy measures will carry a positive start on Monday unless the Asian markets open deep in red. The banking sector has been waiting and the rates cuts were already factored in the bank stocks. This can be seen as the HDFC has failed to cross the resistance at 1560 level and the SBI took long time to trade above 1335-39 level. The reality sector though raised on big hopes were belied as the 20 lakh bracket was not raised to 30 lakhs is a big set back as the demand and profitability was in and above that 30 lakhs. The Monday trades can change the direction but for now the banks may look South.
The package has unilaterally given benefit to cement companies and to the logistic sector that can afford to buy. The IIFCL will spur the demand but not immediately. The IDFC and PFC are cautious on the demand as the industry is not jubilant to spend on BOLT projects.
The duty cuts on steel products have negative impact on the sagging industry. The reality sector that uses longs gets the benefit and will form a cap on raising the prices due to demand revival by the steel industry.
The overall balancing act by the Govt. will keep the Nifty crawling but not a break-out shoot up with this stimulus and monetary measures.
The stimulus too…
The govt. announced stimulus package-2 has also failed to lure the industry, so will be the market. The Govt. is looking for a long-term sustainable action where as the markets are interested in immediate benefits to see the sentiment revived. The strong hands are interested in long gestation period of rise with intermittent sharp rally where the reverse is true with the small investor.
The RBI announced a rate cut of 50 bps in CRR and 100bps for Repo and Reverse Repo to release nearly 20,000 crores in to the system. The GOI simultaneously announced liberalized ECB norms that can benefit the big reality players and some measures in customs duty to curb the free flow of cement from the neighboring countries. This will benefit the cement companies those were strapped to a fixed price for more than 2½ years. This will have a counter effect on the construction companies already surviving on thin margins were given credit but not the profits.
The real worry for now to next 3 quarters is the demand contraction. The seriousness of economic worries will hit the head lines when the demand contraction in the domestic markets face. The Indian economy is growing on the export fillip despite a large domestic demand existing. Now the challenge is that the exports will be seriously getting affected days to come and the supply glut will impact the purchasing interest of the consumer.
The net-net the Indian economy will see troubled months a head but this period can be considered as a “capacity building opportunity” by the big industry houses.
The RBI announced a rate cut of 50 bps in CRR and 100bps for Repo and Reverse Repo to release nearly 20,000 crores in to the system. The GOI simultaneously announced liberalized ECB norms that can benefit the big reality players and some measures in customs duty to curb the free flow of cement from the neighboring countries. This will benefit the cement companies those were strapped to a fixed price for more than 2½ years. This will have a counter effect on the construction companies already surviving on thin margins were given credit but not the profits.
The real worry for now to next 3 quarters is the demand contraction. The seriousness of economic worries will hit the head lines when the demand contraction in the domestic markets face. The Indian economy is growing on the export fillip despite a large domestic demand existing. Now the challenge is that the exports will be seriously getting affected days to come and the supply glut will impact the purchasing interest of the consumer.
The net-net the Indian economy will see troubled months a head but this period can be considered as a “capacity building opportunity” by the big industry houses.
The stimulus too…
The govt. announced stimulus package-2 has also failed to lure the industry, so will be the market. The Govt. is looking for a long-term sustainable action where as the markets are interested in immediate benefits to see the sentiment revived. The strong hands are interested in long gestation period of rise with intermittent sharp rally where the reverse is true with the small investor.
The RBI announced a rate cut of 50 bps in CRR and 100bps for Repo and Reverse Repo to release nearly 20,000 crores in to the system. The GOI simultaneously announced liberalized ECB norms that can benefit the big reality players and some measures in customs duty to curb the free flow of cement from the neighboring countries. This will benefit the cement companies those were strapped to a fixed price for more than 2½ years. This will have a counter effect on the construction companies already surviving on thin margins were given credit but not the profits.
The real worry for now to next 3 quarters is the demand contraction. The seriousness of economic worries will hit the head lines when the demand contraction in the domestic markets face. The Indian economy is growing on the export fillip despite a large domestic demand existing. Now the challenge is that the exports will be seriously getting affected days to come and the supply glut will impact the purchasing interest of the consumer.
The net-net the Indian economy will see troubled months a head but this period can be considered as a “capacity building opportunity” by the big industry houses.
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