The world is reeling under the sub-prime lending issues of US, spreads to the world across. The economy is so inter linked in this era of modern dynamic days that no single economy is independent of it’s own. The interdependence is good when the sailing is smooth but things worsen when they move for a wrong reason.
The beauty of this kind of fall is that it offers blue chips, emerging stocks for a throw away price. The stocks like BHEL, ABB, L&T, NTPC, WIPRO, Divis, IDBI, IDFC, YES Bank, Moser Bear, Praj Ind and RIL. No matter to mention the leading big boys who emerge fast once the dust settles. So grab the opportunity from Monday onwards.
For today, RIL has good support at 1792, SBI at 1591-89, Infy at 1886, TCS 1106-03, Satyam at 451-48, BHEL at 1665, L&T at 2380, RCOM 511-09, Tata steel at 621-18, Sail at 139-41 level. A thumb rule is expect 4-5% down in Large caps to 7-10% in Midcaps.
Friday, August 10, 2007
Thursday, August 09, 2007
No Longer a Haven for Retail Investors?
The markets are no longer a haven for retail investors in these conditions as the volatility has increased considerably. The FIIs and Mutual funds are violent in dealing with the markets that to with the retail participants. The truth is to make the retail investors to opt for the mutual fund route. This enables them to “live and let live” approach. But the traders have no option but to live or die, where as the swing traders swing more in the evenings than with the market movement.
The free calls, paid calls, TV channels, the blogs (like me) and the cell phone intra day calls are to make the liquidity enough in the market so that the operators can enter and exit easily. So “who will save the retail investor?” is the question at this point in time. The answer is ………
No person works for the other person to become rich that to in the stock market it will never happen. Unfortunately there are very few PARTICIPANTS who seriously try to understand the “Rules of the Game” but participate on the tips to make money easily that never happen at the end of the day. The stock market is a fierce battlefield where every body is a “WANTED” and wants to FOOL the other person to make enough profits.
Those persons who comprise the ability to analyse the economy and the performance of the company can make profits in the medium to long-term period. The market movement is always in line with the company’s performance on the longer run but the fluctuations are due to the traders and the calls created demand and supply.
The free calls, paid calls, TV channels, the blogs (like me) and the cell phone intra day calls are to make the liquidity enough in the market so that the operators can enter and exit easily. So “who will save the retail investor?” is the question at this point in time. The answer is ………
No person works for the other person to become rich that to in the stock market it will never happen. Unfortunately there are very few PARTICIPANTS who seriously try to understand the “Rules of the Game” but participate on the tips to make money easily that never happen at the end of the day. The stock market is a fierce battlefield where every body is a “WANTED” and wants to FOOL the other person to make enough profits.
Those persons who comprise the ability to analyse the economy and the performance of the company can make profits in the medium to long-term period. The market movement is always in line with the company’s performance on the longer run but the fluctuations are due to the traders and the calls created demand and supply.
Now Bears showed their power!
The Nifty faced resistance at 4530 at the same point when the Nifty took the U-turn from the 4647 level drifted to 4403 bounced back to 4534 level from there touched a low of 4267 again faced the resistance at the same level.
The Nifty may take longer period to touch the 4500 level unless it trades above 4366 tomorrow and cross 4443-45 levels.
The conditions may very much depend on the US and Asian market cues. But technically Infy is good above 1935+, RIL above 1821, SBI above 1610 and Bharti above 857-59. Incase tomorrow the levels were breached, then the bears pressure is very high and Nifty may see lower levels. If it is a normal profit booking and fresh shorts added Nifty would trade above 4335-39 levels then the damage can be managed with in a few days, otherwise Nifty has good support at 4075-79 levels.
The Nifty may take longer period to touch the 4500 level unless it trades above 4366 tomorrow and cross 4443-45 levels.
The conditions may very much depend on the US and Asian market cues. But technically Infy is good above 1935+, RIL above 1821, SBI above 1610 and Bharti above 857-59. Incase tomorrow the levels were breached, then the bears pressure is very high and Nifty may see lower levels. If it is a normal profit booking and fresh shorts added Nifty would trade above 4335-39 levels then the damage can be managed with in a few days, otherwise Nifty has good support at 4075-79 levels.
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Bulls made their mark!
As posted the move came from the techs that gained 5-10% and lot more to add once the move yield results. The trigger from the RBI’s decision to control the Rupee rise helped bulls the most needed support to take a retaliating move on the bourses.
The situation is in favour of bulls but the move is so steep that finds difficult to hold because the leaders moved fast in hurry. So this move helps the bulls to make the bears to cover the shorts but it is not a good sign to run the bull run. In other words bulls discharged from the hospital and participated in a sprint, which exhausts much energy. Any way the fact is a fact, so far so good and need of the hour is to see the Nifty trades above 4424-28 levels.
The condition holds good in case ICICI, HDFC, Bharti, RCOM, ITC and HUL take the charge to lead and the rest maintain the show.
The negative factors- metals weak, autos have trouble at the ignition point, capital goods are the sufferers of the RBI’s move and the teleco are breathing, SBI advanced far to add numbers to Nifty.
The situation is in favour of bulls but the move is so steep that finds difficult to hold because the leaders moved fast in hurry. So this move helps the bulls to make the bears to cover the shorts but it is not a good sign to run the bull run. In other words bulls discharged from the hospital and participated in a sprint, which exhausts much energy. Any way the fact is a fact, so far so good and need of the hour is to see the Nifty trades above 4424-28 levels.
The condition holds good in case ICICI, HDFC, Bharti, RCOM, ITC and HUL take the charge to lead and the rest maintain the show.
The negative factors- metals weak, autos have trouble at the ignition point, capital goods are the sufferers of the RBI’s move and the teleco are breathing, SBI advanced far to add numbers to Nifty.
The Green is more, Volatility settled?
The World loves green after a weeklong massacre on the bourses. The stocks jumped over 1-2 percent with a positive note. The markets in India can see much needed support from the techs as the RBI measures to control the rise of rupee against dollar. Now raising money through ECB’s become more difficult to Indian industry.
So it is likely that the techs will be re-rated with 5-10% up, as experts say that rupee will touch 41-5-41.8 ranges in next 3 months. The Infy will cross 2020+, Satyam will cross 510+, Wipro above 535+ and TCS will cross 1225+, Mphasis above 320+ and Polaris above 128+ as the measures start yielding results. The good deals for Indian IT's will be announced soon, for now Wipro opening two centers in China and one in US, Infy, TCS and Satyam already announced such positive news to markets.
Yester day discussed conditions valid, and the teleco will do well Bharti good above 879 Idea above 126 and RCOM above 441. A word of caution the bear pressure may come to surface at 4485-89 ranges but for now so long Nifty trades above 4339 is safe to bull to maintain long.
So it is likely that the techs will be re-rated with 5-10% up, as experts say that rupee will touch 41-5-41.8 ranges in next 3 months. The Infy will cross 2020+, Satyam will cross 510+, Wipro above 535+ and TCS will cross 1225+, Mphasis above 320+ and Polaris above 128+ as the measures start yielding results. The good deals for Indian IT's will be announced soon, for now Wipro opening two centers in China and one in US, Infy, TCS and Satyam already announced such positive news to markets.
Yester day discussed conditions valid, and the teleco will do well Bharti good above 879 Idea above 126 and RCOM above 441. A word of caution the bear pressure may come to surface at 4485-89 ranges but for now so long Nifty trades above 4339 is safe to bull to maintain long.
Tuesday, August 07, 2007
The profits booked in doubt?
As posted the markets opened up above 4361, the RIL has made 1792 as low and Bharti stayed above 873. The ONGC, RCOM and INFY failed to stay above their best support levels to sustain the bull move as opened.
Now the concern is the Nifty closed below 4361 level at 4356, RCOM closed below 536 and ITC lost the bull support and trading below 169 is a worrying factor. To make the gains made to be sustainable Nifty shall not trade below 4336 and low shall not breach the support level at 4327. The bull gain strength tomorrow when RIL cross 1839, RCOM 543, Bharti 883, Infy 1993 and TCS above 1129. Those who have taken del. in IDBI can continue to hold until it trades above 109.
The global markets may take some profit booking as we did today but the fall shall not be steep to crate anxiety in the opening.
Now the concern is the Nifty closed below 4361 level at 4356, RCOM closed below 536 and ITC lost the bull support and trading below 169 is a worrying factor. To make the gains made to be sustainable Nifty shall not trade below 4336 and low shall not breach the support level at 4327. The bull gain strength tomorrow when RIL cross 1839, RCOM 543, Bharti 883, Infy 1993 and TCS above 1129. Those who have taken del. in IDBI can continue to hold until it trades above 109.
The global markets may take some profit booking as we did today but the fall shall not be steep to crate anxiety in the opening.
Monday, August 06, 2007
WHO is buying?WHO is burying?
The markets are in a state of confusion and the payers like FI’s, FII’s, traders, investors, hedge funds and fund managers acting in suspicion and maligning the counter part for this situation. It seems that everybody acting as if the other person is deceiving, the cycle is going on and at the end of the day all become fools of their foolishness.
As posted earlier the markets touched 4263 level below the expected level of 4275. In my post tilted-“The deep pockets benefits…..?… The long-term investors can accumulate the growth stocks when the Nifty touches 4270+ levels.
In another post “The bears are making in………roads?. The short term is good for shorts, Nifty may face resistance at 4635-39 level and likely to touch 4273-75 level by mid August. Incase failed to hold then it will touch 4078-75 level which the market missed to touch before it could leap to this level.
The technicals suggest that the markets bottomed temporarily and can see some up move from here. The Nifty closing above 4336 is a positive sign in that direction. To confirm the up move RIL has to open above 1792 and RCOM above 541, Bharti above 873-76 levels, the ONGC shall trade above 881 and Infosys shall open above 1883. This all tighter will put the Nifty opening above 4361, a good sign to bulls to control the bleed.
As posted earlier the markets touched 4263 level below the expected level of 4275. In my post tilted-“The deep pockets benefits…..?… The long-term investors can accumulate the growth stocks when the Nifty touches 4270+ levels.
In another post “The bears are making in………roads?. The short term is good for shorts, Nifty may face resistance at 4635-39 level and likely to touch 4273-75 level by mid August. Incase failed to hold then it will touch 4078-75 level which the market missed to touch before it could leap to this level.
The technicals suggest that the markets bottomed temporarily and can see some up move from here. The Nifty closing above 4336 is a positive sign in that direction. To confirm the up move RIL has to open above 1792 and RCOM above 541, Bharti above 873-76 levels, the ONGC shall trade above 881 and Infosys shall open above 1883. This all tighter will put the Nifty opening above 4361, a good sign to bulls to control the bleed.
The Indices look Southward!
The markets suffered the big jolt by the US sub-prime lending issues, we are no exception. We are likely to open below the good support levels developed at 4331-35, but the challenge is whether we could able to come back fast before the steam exhausts. The top index mover RIL has to trade above 1776 level for today to see some recovery, to sustain the bull run it has to trade above 1718 and for any reason it shall not trade below 1671 to see the bull move to sustain.
The day support level to see recovery- RIL has good support at 1776-73, good for long above 1801 (one can try to buy above 1791). ONGC has good support at 876-73, good for long above 917. Above 528, RCOM has buyer’s support, Tata steel supports exist at 621-23 level.
Brave hearts can start accumulating the future performers from now like Zee around 290+, Idea at 118-14, RCOM 501-06, Tata Motors at 620-580, M&M at 620-590 range, Ranbaxy at 355-345.
The day support level to see recovery- RIL has good support at 1776-73, good for long above 1801 (one can try to buy above 1791). ONGC has good support at 876-73, good for long above 917. Above 528, RCOM has buyer’s support, Tata steel supports exist at 621-23 level.
Brave hearts can start accumulating the future performers from now like Zee around 290+, Idea at 118-14, RCOM 501-06, Tata Motors at 620-580, M&M at 620-590 range, Ranbaxy at 355-345.
Value Buying OR Burying for Now?
The markets are falling but "worth buying now?"is the challenging question to be answered. The prudent saying about the market is “Never catch a falling knife in the market”. The world is changing fast to accept risk as an integral function of life. Now I say the maxim can be considered as “Never catch a falling sword”. I believe that the INVESTOR will consider market given oppertunity as an "Opportunity in Risking or a Risky Opportunity".
The room for up side is valid so long as our economy is growing at 7-8% and the markets are bound to move up, even small bumps and pots holes come in the way of their successful journey. The difficult thing is to live with difficult times even though we may have bright future a head.
The room for up side is valid so long as our economy is growing at 7-8% and the markets are bound to move up, even small bumps and pots holes come in the way of their successful journey. The difficult thing is to live with difficult times even though we may have bright future a head.
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