The vengeance by bulls….

Yesterday’s jolt was equally retaliated by the bulls, could push the Nifty to the original level from where it took the slide. The expiry of the July series (started at 4315 and today’s closing was at 4313) and the roll over to the August could take the Nifty to the desired levels with the positive global cues and the cooling of the crude. The Nifty could maintain the levels from where it has started the July series at in spite of the sharp sell off from the beginning of the series due to inflation and global concerns. The tamed inflation curve and the economic outlook are stable and earnings are encouraging, so the Nifty is likely to advance in August series.
The HDFC moved up by 7.8%, Rel Infra by 6.8%, Tata power by 7%, Tata steel by 7.8% and the Tata communications by 9.4% where as Zeel and NTPC lost more than 4.5%.

The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER: As suggested in the morning in the Stock Specific Action: Infra stocks gave mixed results, LT is good above 2620 and the high touched is 2625 but the Rel Infra is good above 920, likely to touch and trade above 960 – the high touched 979, Punj Lloyd is good above 250 and closed at 271.6.
The Reliance is strong above 2115 and the high touched at 2174. The ONGC traded in between the suggested levels. The RCOM will be good above 501-498 and touched a high of 512.
The banking stocks found good number of buyers.
The DLF is weak below 473 and good above 481, resistance at 495 level and the stock touched a high of 497.
The Tata steel is good above 591, made a stellar performance at the bourses and touched a high of 635 level.
For Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The US markets make over...

The steep fall in crude lifted the spirits of US markets and the spill over of the green spread to the Asian markets likely to positively impact our markets today. The beauty in strong economy markets is that they recover even they fall one or the other reason. Where as the emerging markets run-up like a sprint competition when the going is good as well they crumble like the sand houses built at the shore.

The sharp fall from recent highs of 4540 to 4160 level will give a bounce back as expected. In my earlier write up it was mentioned that the markets holds above 4285 from the yesterday lows will confirm the bottom base at 3800. (Dt 28-07-08-The short-term lower side support exists at 4093-4100 level that will give a bouncing support…..)

Now the Nifty is likely to open positively with a gap up above 4211-15 and will cross the resistance at 4265 with ease but the strong resistance at 4285 has to be crossed with confidence. The caution is that the markets are trading ahead of the July expiry. The volatility is likely to be high and it may cause tension to the traders and the investors but the support levels will not be violated as the situation stands at this point in time.

For Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The RBI & Inflation impact….

The RBI has increased the Repo rate by 50 basis points and the CRR by 25 basis points wreck the banking stocks and the global melt down any way forced the indices to open lower. The banks are struggling to maintain the margins are now fixed left with no option but to raise their lending rates, in turn loosing the growth momentum.

The Nifty lost the important bottom support, more than that the confidence in the markets up move. The Nifty though left with steam but the RBI’s rate hike damage was considerably impacted the sentiment. The election year, the populist measures and the vote wooing measures are on the top agenda.

The Nifty was beaten badly and it can be confirmed if it fails to trade above 4260 level. The Nifty gains strength if the low is above 4125 and closes above 4225. The Reliance and ONGC has to come to the rescue.

The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER: As suggested in the Stock Specific Action: The RIL behaved weak below 2150 and the low touched at 2075.
The ONGC stock became weak below 1005 low touched 960.60
The RCOM will be good above 509 but high recorded 506 and weak below 498 it did not touched 498 but the low touched at 485.20.
The SBI has support at 1335-25 levels weak below 1440-45 level but low touched 1306 closed at 1318.65. The Relcap is weak 1320 and the low touched 1208.05 closed at 1219 where the second support was give at 1215-20 level.
The DLF is weak below 493 and the high touched 495 and the low touched 465. In my earlier posts I suggested that it will touch 460 level.
The Tata steel is weak below 608 and the high touched 605, support may come at 571-568 but the low touched at 577.80.
The positive news is developing for Cairn and good above 230 and weak below 218-19 level. It traded above 230 levels for the first two hours and later touched low of 221.45, positively closed at 228.55.
For Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The fall for consolidation......

The Nifty failed to pierce the 4360 resistance but could hold above 4260 level through out the day. The Nifty has to go without a break to take the momentum into Bulls fold then it has to close above 4415 level in the morning and the low shall not be below 4290 level. This condition will be satisfied only when there is a gap up opening but the overnight US fall and the weak Asian markets dampen the possibility. The RBI credit policy will impact the Banking stock valuations and it it widely rumored that the RBI may increase the REPO rate and leave the CRR unchanged for this time as the growth slowdown has to be taken into consideration.

The Asian markets are trading lower by 2-3%, and the Indian ADR’s are down by 5-8% down. In this bleak scenario the markets are likely to be opened below tha earlier support level at 4260 level and it may touch 4185 the best possible support for this day. The Bull activity developed buoyancy in the markets in the last weak will be negated only when the Nifty trades below 4050 level.

The positive news of the day is that the smaller stocks got the market attention. The commodity stocks like sugar, tea drew the market attention and the small cap stocks in Pharma, software gained more than 10% and some stocks like Polaris gained 23%. The readers might have followed the earlier articles in which I clearly mentioned that the small cap move confirms the bottom building process. These moves encourage the retail investors who in turn will get the heart- filled relief & satisfaction that enlightens the faith in the markets. The small and mid cap up move that has been initiated, will be consolidated in days to come.

For Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The narrow movement….

The cowardly acts of the terrorists did not shake the confidence of the investors but the markets are cautious a head of the RBI policy meet. The Nifty took the support very close to Friday’s low but failed to trade above 4293. The Nifty failed to trade above 4360 level due to weakness in the momentum is something the bulls needs to think about at this critical juncture.

The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER: The Nifty neither opened low nor it closed at least 30 points down. I failed to read the developments.

The suggestions made in the Stock Specific Action: The RIL has support at 2085 and the low recorded is 2106. The RPL failed to trade above 163 but the high touched is 163.85.
The ICICI could not shed its negative view as the high registered is 669.
The ONGC recorded 1044 but it could not trade above 1020 level but the low recorded at 951.25
The SBI nose dived below 1453-55 level and even touched 1410-11.
The Relcap could not cross the resistance at 1335-1339, the high recorded was 1337.8
The Infy weakly traded below 1550.
The satyam will find buyers above 379-81 but the high recorded at 379.
The Wipro is relative strong and traded in a range of 402-414
The DLF moved in between 493 to 509.

For Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The mayhem in metros…

The markets are facing difficulty to advance due to the turbulence in the country caused by the terrorist activities and publicly announcing their targets. The positive Asian markets cues are likely to cushion the steep down fall but I think the markets are likely to open at lower level by at least 30 points gap down. If we consider the past experience is a measure of indicator then the markets are likely to advance but the heavy weights failed to impress the street with their numbers is now a major concern. The ONGC, L&T, Kotak bank, HDFC bank, STER and Sun pharma are going to publish their quarterly numbers.

The ICICI bank failed to provide good results but also warned with a depicted growth slow down picture. On the other hand the banking major SBI has provided a meaningful quarterly performance but the NIM was reduced considerably. The MTM losses are eating the profits even to the biggies like RIL- more than 900 cr., ICICI reported more than 590 cr. where as SBI has reported 1656+ cr.

The Nifty will become strong only when it trades above 4360 and crosses the resistance at 4385. The strong momentum generated for the last 6 trading sessions will have some thing to say for and the next resistance at 4685 that may be crossed with out much resistance from the bears. The last two trading sessions diluted the bull momentum and the serial bomb blasts likely to impact adversely in the coming trading sessions. The short-term lower side support exists at 4093-4100 level that will give a bouncing support. For today, the lower level support at 4230-4240 level likely to be challenged.

For Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The Fund Managers love the FALL...

The deep pocketed HNI’s and the fund managers across the globe “love the fall in the indices”, especially in the emerging markets like INDIA. The stock markets are always living with the scapegoats and vultures; here the early bird always catches the flesh.

The retail investors with their large investment base in quantitative numbers fail to understand the qualitative investment principle. In contrary to these scattered retail investors, the HNI’s and the Fund Managers are very organized and they are cohesive in action with right information dissemination at right time. The research reports, the studies, planning proposals and the govt. decisions will reach them well in advance to garner the opportunity.

The Investment horizon for these category operators are any thing beyond 5-7 years of time frame. So they love the markets go up only when they are tired of buying the quality stocks and then they push up with out providing any resistance at higher level. The retail investors who have limited money and cumulative failures while investing in the downturn fails to recognize the real up move because of the fear of failure and the shortened perspective.
The daily traders and the week to month long averaging experts think that they will gain by averaging at higher level shorting. This way the markets invite lots off shorts but they will be absorbed. The indices go any where but take lots of shorts into the system by providing signals as if they markets are likely to break when they side downwards to invite more shorts.

The markets find few takers (especially the scapegoats) at the higher levels are clear signals of exhaustion. The operators easily understand that the quantity he/she expected go, find no takers is a clear signal to go for shorting. The same situation arises at the bottom as there was no/few sellers is a clear signal for an up move. The real problem/hurdle the retail investor face across the globe is the method in that can help to identify the “Saturation Point”?.

The stock markets are not only with numbers but there are other things that influence those numbers are that matters.

Please think and place your ideas in the Comments…..

I request the readers to place their ideas for others sake and encourage the others to learn-“the right information dissemination at right time”

The looming concern in RIL…..

The markets will test the low of 4200 level and bounce back above 4285 is a good sign for better investment planning. The markets will perform but selective scrips will provide better returns. They are mainly the N-power related stocks, the KPO, and CRAMS.

The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER: Nifty failed to hold above 4321 but touched 4297 level due to heavy weakness in the Reliance and ICICI bank.
As posted in Stock Specific Action: The ONGC has support at 970-65 level and the low recorded are 974. The Relcap has support at 1290-96 level and the low recorded is 1292, The SBI has support at 1430 and the low recorded is 1423. The ICICI bank has support at 663 but it went upto 648.
The RCOM is good above 509, went up to 516 in a 120 points down weak market. The DLF is good above 506 and the high recorded is 506.95.
The JP is weak below 169 and the recorded high is 168.
The Infy is good above 1585 but the high recorded is 1585, Satyam is good above 379-81 the high touched 378.5, while WIPRO is good above 428 but the high recorded is 420.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The global melt down

The testing times for the markets to keep afloat above 4000 level and the RIL has to trade above the 2050 level to see these things happen.
The ONGC has out performed in the current season and under no circumstances it shall trade below 840 levels to keep the faith in our markets. The up move triggered one week back has enough steam to take the Nifty to 4865-4935 level with out much strain. The market friendly policies and disinvestment announcements and easing of inflation will keep the FII’s faith in our markets.

The Nifty is likely to open with a gap down, has the first support at 4395-91 level and has the bullish momentum to recover the losses. The Nifty has the second support at 4360 level and the days best available at 4321-25 level. The Reliance results effect will decide the course of the Nifty Journey as the results published in the evening. The Reliance has support at 2285 level, incase it breaches then the support at 2230 and at 2205-08 level may spoil the chances of Nifty scaling upward. In case RIL stays above 2305 then likely to cross 2370 then to 2385 level and the upward push may take it to 2485-2525 level in the coming sessions.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

No problem correction…?…..

The crude has cooled very rapidly and even broke the $120/- support. The Global markets rallied in celebration particularly the Asian pack.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom support at 4050 level and temporarily not likely to go below 4240 the first support.
The inflation figures though not exuberant as well not threatening.
The upward movement has been cooled, likely to see some healthy correction in case tomorrow Nifty fails to trade above 4485. the immediate bottom support at 4362-65 level. The RCOM was battered but did not break the support at 493 and Bharti stayed above 785. The Reliance stayed above 2280 level, anticipation of good results, which were delivered in the evening and the street verdict is awaited. The RPL todya also failed to stay above 174 level.

The reality sector showed some resilience from the big boys like DLF, Unitech and JP. The lone sector that corrected a bit more is the banking sector along with the meltdown in metal scrips.
The fertilizer scrips like RCF, Nagarjuna, GNFC and Coromandal registered 10-20% up move. The appreciation of rupee impacted the tech scrips like TCS, Tech Mahindra, Styam and Infy. This is a good opportunity to park the liquid cash in the tech majors for reasonable relatively assured returns.
The Bharti results failed to cheer though they are good numbers but Idea needs some good ideas to increase the bottom line.

No problem correction…?…..

The crude has cooled very rapidly and even broke the $120/- support. The Global markets rallied in celebration particularly the Asian pack.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom support at 4050 level and temporarily not likely to go below 4240 the first support.
The inflation figures though not exuberant as well not threatening.
The upward movement has been cooled, likely to see some healthy correction in case tomorrow Nifty fails to trade above 4485. the immediate bottom support at 4362-65 level. The RCOM was battered but did not break the support at 493 and Bharti stayed above 785. The Reliance stayed above 2280 level, anticipation of good results, which were delivered in the evening and the street verdict is awaited. The RPL todya also failed to stay above 174 level.

The reality sector showed some resilience from the big boys like DLF, Unitech and JP. The lone sector that corrected a bit more is the banking sector along with the meltdown in metal scrips.
The fertilizer scrips like RCF, Nagarjuna, GNFC and Coromandal registered 10-20% up move. The appreciation of rupee impacted the tech scrips like TCS, Tech Mahindra, Styam and Infy. This is a good opportunity to park the liquid cash in the tech majors for reasonable relatively assured returns.
The Bharti results failed to cheer though they are good numbers but Idea needs some good ideas to increase the bottom line.

Can the rally live this time?…..

The positive global cues and the Asian markets rally can keep us in green in the morning and in the evening it is very likely that some profit booking can be seen. The likely would of correction is around the corner as the over heated markets need some cooling. The Bulls this time made a killing in the markets as they pushed the Nifty from 3800 to 4500. The rally focused on the banking/insurance sector and the power sector. The profit booking is over due as these markets recovered from their lows due to short covering and with some buying from institutions. The retail investors will come to market with anticipated up move at least from this level to 5000+ level.

The Nifty is good above 4370 level and likely to face resistance at 4511-15 level. Incase it crosses 4529-31 level then the markets will easily cross 4612 resistance with out any resistance in the coming days.
(Due to some unavoidable technical problems I failed to post in the morning, though it has little value now but help the readers to track the movement)

The Bears cover, the Bulls buy, buys…..

The markets were wild enough to force the bears to cover their shorts and the Nifty went into premium from a deep discount of 70 points at the opening of the July series.

The Nifty may fall but it will bounce back as the news is in favour of the Bulls. The negative news that is there was discounted as it is not giving a new taste.
The Nifty is likely to continue the bull momentum as the resistances are loosing their significance on its up move. Now the Nifty is likely to stay above 4116-20 level for some time. The Nifty may get support at 4360 level and a better support at 4325-30 level.

The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER: As posted, the Nifty has crossed the 4385 level and crossed the 4425 level to reach 4491+ with energy as the N-power empowered the Bulls.

In the Stock Specific Action it was suggested that the weak counters like Infy and Satyam performed from the suggested levels. As suggested the RPL crossed the 169 level and stopped at the 174 hurdle, the high registered is 174. As suggested, the Essar oil touched 195 when the resistance crossed at 183, the high registered is 197. As suggested, the Bharti is good above 793 and touched a high of 828.
The RCOM made a real come back with vengeance along with their group companies. It crossed the resistance at 496-93 with ease and rallied to 531 level. The Relcap crossed 1220 and went up to 1376+ level.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Writing on the wall….

The markets are likely to open above the immediate resistance level at 4340 level and may cross 4385-4393 level. In case it could trade above 4425 in the day is a clear signal that the bulls are in charge of the situation till it reaches 4680.
The low of Nifty shall not breach 4280 in the intra day.

The RIL has to trade above 2287 and it shall not trade below 2150 level. This is a classic indication to identify the market movement.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

No doubt Govt. survived……

The UPA govt. made its mark in the annals of history by many events and the best for markets is that it “sir, vivid”.
The dramatic movements of Parliament can fill the “News” for the media but cast dark shadow on the “Democracy” that was dragged on the floor of Parliament by many senior great parliamentarians.
The companies will rejoice with the deals that open new doors of businesses from the N-deal and the profits that fatten the bottom lines of these companies.
The Nifty is strong at 4070 level, unless the level is distinctly breached with a serious reason; it became a good support for short term.
The Nifty may become weak if it trades below 4180 level and the RIL shall trade below 2050 level. The immediate concern is that the Nifty made its journey from 3800 to 4263 in just 5 trading sessions that to many political challenges ahead of it.

Dt: 17-07-2008 evening posted………..As we expected, Nifty could cross the 3940 level in morning and could stay through out the day and closed above the crucial closing of 3943 level as expected in the morning posting……
Dt: 17-07-2008 night posted…… the Nifty has crossed the minor resistance while facing the non-stop selling spree. Though it looks too early to conclude but as things stand out today on the face of it looks that Nifty made a reasonable support at 3800 level and will advance upto 4380-4550. The possible hurdle could be the failure of the Govt. to secure the trust vote and you know the result….

The strength in doubt………..

The markets displayed their strength at the bourses while the govt. is trying to show its strength at the floor of the Parliament.
The markets know it better what deal came through and the deal in pipeline when the N-deal passes through the regulatory authorities.


The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER: I anticipated a fall in the indices especially in the banking sector which was proved wrong beyond doubt.
I suggested RIL is strong above 2130 level and it registered a low of 2125. The RCOM suggested good above 448-48, low registered at 445.
I suggested that ONGC will close below 932 but the low was at 940 level. The blessing in disguise is that the DLF and JP showed some weakness while the Nifty added above 100 points. But at the core point I was proved wrong and stood with strength.

For today market proved that I totally failed to understand it. So Never Forget: I may be wrong.

The trust Vs the distrust……

The markets may be volatile but they will stabilize as the swing is in favour of UPA. The markets will feel the nervous movements as the d-day has approached. The trust and mistrust are the core contents of the drama in Delhi. The leaders are claiming and blaming the other parties’ abilities and crippledness in handling various issues. Any way the time has come to unfold the curtains of suspense over the survival of the Govt. in power and the fate of the N-deal.
The Nifty could gain about 320 points in 3 trading days is a good sign in these difficult periods. So it is very likely that the Nifty could face selling pressure at higher levels. The corporate results are so far good and we can expect better results for this quarter. The real challenge is to manage the next two quarter with this kind of performance. The Nifty made a high of 4169 on 9th and closed at the same level at 4159 but the low is above 2%.

The banking sector made a decent come back in the rally that focused on SBI, ICICI and Bank India. The other bank like Axis bank, Union Bank and Kotak bank covered their earlier loses.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The markets stabilized…….

The positive global cues helped the markets to gain decent positive returns despite of a major event ahead. The markets maintained their positive up move as a bounce back move. The analysts consider this as a bear market rally that can last for a brief period. The markets look attractive at this stage when one considers investment perspective of 2-3 years time. Let the trust vote be over to find some “Trust” in the markets.

The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER: In the morning suggested in Stock Specific Action that RIL is strong above 2080-85 level and it made a low of 2093. The ONGC made a low of 932 suggested, good above 923. The BHEL, REL Infra and NTPC shall trade with positive bias. The BHEL made a low 1477.2 suggested low to become weak at 1455
The REL infra suggested strong above 820 and the low registered is 827.
Inspite of good move in the Nifty level the suggestion on RPL that RPL has weakness in the momentum but good above 156, but it could not cross 156.
The RCOM is good above 429 and become weak below 418-18, the low registered was 430 and Bharti is good above 785 and second support at 771-69, low registered was 773. The ICICI is good above 605-08, the low registered 624 and the SBI is in bull grip is good above 1270 and the low registered 1291.

I failed to understand the up move in the JP Associates suggested that the selling pressure will come and could see free fall below 151 but the low registered is 153.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The tug of war ………

The spectator’s tension of “win or loose” is not confined to games but also to the govt. in power. The trading in the bazaar is a certified transaction but the profit and loss is accounted but where as “our show” is creating big news with allegations and counter allegations. The ruling party is saying publicly that the “match fixing” has completed and the opposition is claiming that the govt. will be bulldozed under the communal left and right forces.
The Nifty shall trade above 4040-4035 level to continue the Bull movement at the bourses and also an indication that he govt. will clearly win the trust vote. Incase it trades below and above 3991-86 level there was some doubt. The positive news from the Asian markets shall keep the Nifty above the first suggested level unless there is some vital news with the markets.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

DOES “UPA” HAS STRENGTH …?

The question at this hour is whether the UPA will face the trust vote or Dr. Manmohan Singh will resign before facing the parliament. The UPA is not relying on its strengths but trying to save from the weakness of the NDA. The new allies are not united at UPA and the old friends of NDA are surviving with limited trust among them.
The markets will live and dance to the tunes of the Delhi politics for next two days. The volatile moments give confusing signals for time to time. The technicals from the prices have little relevance as the markets may swing any direction at any time.

The heavy weights have something to say in the difficult/directionless times. The effort is to remind you how we made our journey to this level from 6300 to 3800 level. If you can, then go through….. “History helps us to plan for the Future” but in a different way.

Y can’t it be…………….18-11-2007 ......

The story is contrary to the current happenings at the bourses. The positive side shall go this way….
In my earlier write up I clearly mention to hold positions in fertilizer stocks for decent gains. Now they doubled from the prices recommended to buy & hold. In the same manner I wrote about the investments of FIIs in our markets. They first invested huge amounts in the Reliance group. They are familiar with the Reliance group growth story and the Indian growth story. Now they are spreading their investments to other sectors with different groups. The large caps are rather fully saturated at the price level and left with little scope for further appreciation. So the MFs, FIIs and the DIIs are left with no option but to explore new opportunities with emerging companies though they are small to medium in size at this point in time. The flare up in prices is due to the mismatch in their size and the liquid cash chasing the stock.
The negative side shall go this way….
The small cap and the medium cap stocks are now in their flare-up run at the bourses, but the investigative approach can show a dark side of manipulations in the game.
The story goes back to the 2005-2006, the FIIs, the MFs and the operators heavily invested in (the early bird catches the fish) the Mid-small cps to capture the instant large gains which turned out a futile effort due to lack of liquidity due to the steep crash when the Sensex was at 12000 range. The investments became dud for long two years with no moves. After a long frustration, now these people captured the up moves with vengeance. I personally feel that the prices are sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will know about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………

The end of the BULLRUN?.17-12-2007

The markets are taking deep breath to settle for a long leap up move or end of the Bull Run? Is the question at this point?
I see a steep correction like that happened in May 2005 if the Nifty fails to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run.

Incase the Nifty fails to trade and close above 5885 tomorrow, it is likely that the markets likely to touch 5321-28 level and then markets need strong cues to rejuvenate the bulls.

The big boys of the market are very silent for their own reasons but the time has come that they need to infuse vital medicine to the Bulls to take on Bears. The good support of RIL at 2640-30, SBI has support at 2135-2128, ONGC has support at 1060-70, Bharti at 835-829 level and the ICICI has support at 1085-1090. Incase two or three stocks could stay above 4-5% above those support levels then the markets are for the Bulls.
The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma
With out doubt, the Small cap and Mid-cap run-up story is intact until the Nifty stays above 4865-4935 levels.

Uncertainty is Certain… 25-12-2007

The stock valuations are most vulnerable by their nature to the minor and major issues and to local and international issues even if they are not of much importance on the face of influence a lot in the minds of investors cause anxiety fluctuate in price irrespective of the percentage of concern. We can easily say, “the uncertainty is certain” at the bourses each time and every time. Those who fear about uncertainty can search their souls in peace, as nothing is certain.

As expected in my earlier write up the market bounced back on bull track in 4 trading sessions.(………if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run…….. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma).

Now the challenge at the Nifty level is to stay above 5778-71 to register a new high and above 6400 level by the end of first week of Feb-2008. The run up in the prices of power and infra will take a back seat and the service sectors and hotels will enjoy the support of bulls along with FMGC & retail move. The gas transportation and the network is the emerging sector. I have been suggesting holding in Fertliser stocks and the next big bet on banks with insurance exposure. These sectors will explode maximum followed by oil exploration and allied services.

No longer immune…….

The Indian markets are resilient to the external pressures of equity fall as the markets see good future but the immediate and short-term pressures cann’t be ruled out. In my ealier write up dated: 29/10/2007, clearly mentioned the possible up side be capped at 6290.

It can’t be stretched further….

…..I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level.
The markets are likely to see more down ward action than upward momentum. The rise and fall ratio could be of 1:3 from next week onwards until Aug-Sep-2008. Incase economy could face the challenges for next 6 months than the upward journey in the stocks resume. Indian stocks revaluation based on the broad based economy and growth prospects is over and the real test is that the companies have to perform given the opportunities, then the markets. So is US………

The markets are fighting for their survival as the Bull Run took a beating at the bourses. The markets will take considerable time to resume their upward move. (Pls.read my earlier write ups.---the range suggested at 5250-6290 but the high touched at 6347). The game plans of the operators are very clear that they took the Sub-prime issue for more than 6-months so that the retail investors forget. I warned that the sub-prime issue is much bigger than what they pronouncing.

Now the long period of consolidation is good opportunity to traders as they can get in and get out at every 12-15% rise and fall. The earnings will be good to the Indian industry as the consumer demand and the economic growth continue to flourish. The markets likely to test the bottom at 5192-5226 at the worst scenario but this will happen only if the Nifty fails to cross 5935 before the end of Jan-FO series.

The markets likely to get support at 5670 level as first support and if trades below that level then the support at 5445-15 level at the October-07 level. So long the Reliance stays above 2630-50 level, ICICI stays above 1135-29 level and the ONDC stays above 1090-1110, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. This correction is a measure to MFs & FIIs to save themselves from the Mid-cap trap happened at 2005.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
I request you to think carefully all the events that made the Bull run and the happenings that caused the burst.

The ultimate bargain ….

The markets though exhibited a robust up move and consequent weekly positive close will be challenged in the next two trading sessions due to the fluid political situation in Delhi.The Nifty has immediate support at 4030-4040 level to expect the bull move to continue further. The next support available at 3979-81 level but the ultimate support that formed in the recent times is 3820-30 level.

The horse trading is at its high spirits, no longer confined to smaller parties but to individuals who dare to question the CHIEF. The nuclear issue has become the election issue and parties are trying to attract the other and backstab the opponents. The parties draw their lines not only on the trust vote issue but their personal interests are at their best bargaining capacity. Whether the govt wins the trust vote or not but Indians faith on the leaders integrity was tarnished.

The real support came from ONGC, RIL, Bharti and the nuclear related power pack of NTPC, ABB and the RELinfra. The REL infra has good support at 805-801, ONGC is strong above 840, Bharti above 850 level, NTPC is good above 163, suggested in earlier postings. (The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER:Titled:Can we be in green….The Reliance closed below 2020 level but for today it shall trade below 1990 so that the bears can make their day happy at this counter). Yesterday the RIL showed an excellent support at 1990 rallied up to 2100+, so the scrip will become weak below 1990 level.

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The robust move…....

The move started today has a good significance as the opening was normal and at one time Nifty went into red. The accumulation started from the morning to mid session. The move came after sufficient chunk of shares were acquired then the shoot up came.

The readers might have understood how the heavy weights show the direction and the importance of price levels. As mentioned earlier Bharti started the up move after it traded comfortable above 747, then touched 813 ( The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER :Titled: Asian melt down dt15-07-08,…… Bharti is good for del. above 750 level, but for today it is very likely that it will be available at 703-06 or even below that support level…)

I suggested for delivery in nuclear related companies and he move from the markets focused to Nuclear related infra & equipment companies.(STOCKOMETER:Titled: The UPA govt. lost the support of Left to stay in power sign the N-deal but manages to garner the like minded parties to corner the Left that the deal is inevitable in current scenario to meet the ever rising energy needs. So the deal will be through and benefit lots of companies like LT, Punjlloyd, ABB, Areva T&D, Siemens, NTPC, RelInfra and many other smaller companies queuing to cut their share in the cake……)
STOCKOMETER: To day in the Stock Specific Action, suggested RIL, RCOM gained strength, Infy failed to trade above 1605 and Tata Steel ex dividend Rs16, suggested there could be bounce bank failed to realized the weakness in the metal sectors. In the morning suggested that Nifty to gain strength from banking sector, SBI and Bharti.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Move up, further…….

The up move may continue as the global cues are positive and the Asian markets are trading in green with positive bias. The markets need to move up from these levels to need some positive triggers from the global and internal political action.

The Nifty shall not trade below 3890 level to cross the 4040 level. The markets will react to the results of Wipro, Satyam and the inflation figures released yesterday evening. The banking sector especially the SBI counter looks bullish and may move to 1400 level if it can sustain above 1260 level for 2 trading days. The Bharti may give good support to Nifty if it stays above 747 and cross 790 level.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Can we stand to gain….

The markets took the global positive cues and the crude falling from the peaks has provided the much needed bottom support. But do we have the courage to encourage the growth and taming the inflation with cautious approach?. The rainfall is keeping the experts fingers crossed as they can do very little about it and say it is above normal. Any delay more than a week can change the cropping equations.

The Nifty has crossed the minor resistance while facing the non-stop selling spree. Though it looks too early to conclude but as things stand out today on the face of it looks that Nifty made a reasonable support at 3800 level and will advance upto 4380-4550. The possible hurdle could be the failure of the Govt. to secure the trust vote and you know the result.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

"Life" lived in the markets…

The dud feeling in the markets were eliminated for this day as the markets showed the elegance in pushing the prices up as well the Nifty.
As we expected, Nifty could cross the 3940 level in morning and could stay through out the day and closed above the crucial closing of 3943 level as expected in the morning posting.

The reality sector, banking sector posted decent gains. In the Intraday stock calls I clearly mention the strengths of RCOM, SBI, ICICI bank and RIL. They neither breached the support levels nor failed to continue their northward journey as the strength of support increased.

The Ranbaxy trouble may live for some weeks and the trouble from the forex losses may increase in the number, eroded the share value of the companies like Biocon, HCL tech, Mind Tree but the TCS could absorb the loss.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Positive Global cues….

The markets in US were very positive and posted decent gains. The Asian markets are in green and they can boost the positive sentiment in our markets. The crude fall gave a face lift at least for this week.

The tech Indians ADRs shined, Infy by 5.8%, Satyam by 6%, Wipro by 4%, the banking majors ICICI by 8.5% and the HDFC Bank rose by 6.5%.

The markets likely to post decent early gains in the morning and the challenge remains at this point is whether we could continue to cross the resistance at 3971-73 level and shall close above 3943. The severely beaten down banking and reality sectors will see some recovery.

Those who believe that the N-deal will go through with a positive trust vote can start buying the Nuclear equipment & parts supplying companies and the construction companies those are capable of executing these critical works.

The action for big action…..

The markets are struggling to face the new challenges at higher levels but are determined to fight against the present situation. There was no specific change in the economic/political situation but a favour came from “cooling of crude”, gave some bottom support to market.

The tech results are not very enthusiastic to take the Nifty levels to higher levels from these levels be it with Infy, TCS. The telecom stocks with lead from Bharti are going to scale high. After the 60 points positive start it went back to 70 points negative but recovered well with support from ONGC, Bharti, Ranbaxy, HUL, capital goods & power sectors.

The Bearish out look will remain at least for two quarters for sure. The crude has to trade below 120 dollars and the resultant ease of inflation will give positive signals to RBI to relax the money tightening policies. The cumulative effect can be seen in the indices with confidence in the investor community, then the Nifty will trade above 4500 level and the foreign money will chase our stocks. Till these things happen without much deviation, the markets will be in trading range.

Anyway we have to live with the numbers, the Nifty has some support at least for the time being at 3800 level till the trust vote. The temporary support shall push the Nifty above 3879 level in the morning trade and shall cross above 3940 level to see Bulls build confidence for time being.
The traders might have observed the fall in RIL below 2020 level and RPL below 163, once their support levels (suggested) were breached.

The Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Only down….down/low grades….

India is now passing through a rough phase with low grade, lower grade marks for investments as “Fitch down grades India”. The down grades from Moody’s and Standard & Poor will come out with their reports soon.

The gloomy picture of today was not visualized in Jan-08.The crude was at $120 per barrel and every body expected that it will touch $150 per barrel but the markets across the world were in jubilant mood with bullish out look. Now there was nothing left to write on the emerging India’s growth story or the opportunities available. Now the issue is how fast we recover from the pessimistic views to positive view?.

The markets sold off today and could not recover from their lows. The Nifty supports are eroded with the flood like supply of selling orders. Now the Nifty lost it’s significance of bottom supports and the present situation throws a new challenge to cross the hurdles on the up side. The fist hurdle to cross is at 4040 level and should cross the second hurdle at 4280 level then there is some thing left to think on the Bulls side.

The Reliance to cross the resistance at 2140 and later it has to cross the second resistance at 2260 level to confirm the ease of the Bear pressure in this counter.
The banking sector heavy weight like ICICI has to cross the resistance of 645-50 level and the SBI has to trade above 1390 level. After persistence efforts at the front line stocks can throw light that some of the positive efforts of Bulls are yielding results. The earlier posts were discussed about the other heavy weights of Nifty that can influence.

The Asian meltdown…..

The Asian markets are reeling under pressure from the financial troubles facing by the US mortgage companies and the escalating tensions around Iran and the Israel. The US big brother control over the resources and geographies are the real causes for the commodity prices upward move but unfortunately in the uni-polar world there is country dare to question/check the US high handness.
The tensions across the global equity markets spreading fear in the emerging markets investments there by drifting lower and lower.
The Nifty is having reasonable first at support at 3961-63 level and the 3900 shall hold till the trust vote is over. The Infy shall find buying support at lower level as the correction is very steep. It was deep down at 1310 level in second week of March gone up to 2000 level in June came down to 1550 level. So it will save Nifty and the price can go from 1500 to 1680-1720 level in near future.
The telecom stocks will rise as the 3G auction is all set to take place in a month or two and Bharti is good for del. above 750 level, but for today it is very likely that it will be available at 703-06 or even below that support level. The RCOM will rally from this level to 580 level once the reverse merger with MTN takes place.
The RPL can drift to lower in case it trades below 163 level and the reality and infra likely to see lower levels. The metals especially ferrous will find selling pressure for today, Sail is weak below 139 and Tata steel below 686-89 level.

The fall is faster…..

The traders might have observed that the fall is much faster than the snail pace rise. The markets likely to witness the same kind of volatility till the HNI’s-deep pocked investors grab the early opportunity. The markets will fall but not more than 10% and create havoc in the minds of retail investor and pain in the heart.
The Nifty will not fall to 3200-300 levels as it fell from 5200 to this level. In case a sharp sell off from any సైడ్, market depth was shallow and it cannot take any out-right throw away sell-off.
The Nifty showed the required bull support to cross the 4093 level as posted in the morning but could not hold above 4073 level to give peace to the Bulls.
The Reliance (posted in the morning-The Reliance closed below 2020 level but for today it shall trade below 1990 so that the bears can make their day happy at this counter.) made a low of 1990 took support for this day abated the bears to make merry at the counter. The metals made a good come back across all counters and showed their strength. The RCOM failed to trade above 441-43 convincingly drifted to 435-36 level and Bharti didn’t hold the promise above 747. A surprise at the banking sector to many is that the Axis bank failed to cheer the street in spite of its robust quarterly numbers. The Ranbaxy sell off helps the Daiichi to buy the company with out raising the open offer.

Can we be in green….

The markets sold off due to the poor IIP numbers and the rising inflation numbers. The market closed temporarily at the support level at 4049 is a good sign. The two days made lots of changes in the political equations. The Congress thought that it could easily convince the smaller parties but Karat took it to his heart to tumble the Govt. and in the process a head of the ruling party. This could through a negative signal to the recovering markets.
The Nifty shall trade above 4073 and shall cross the resistance at 4093 level taking positive cues from the Asian markets. In case it fails to do so and trades below the 3990 level then it may touch 3900 level where it can has some support.
The Reliance closed below 2020 level but for today it shall trade below 1990 so that the bears can make their day happy at this counter. The RPL is strong above 169-170 level and weak below 163 level. The Infras may see further buying support at lower levels. The DLF is good above 449-51 weak below 446. The JP Associates was sold off could recover to day if it could trade above 165 but it is very unlikely. The Unitech is in a better place, good above 170 and weak below 165. The GMR Infra is good above 91 and weak below 89 level.
The RCOM showed resilience and the low is well above 421-23 support level. It is likely to advance further if it trades above 439-41 level. The Bharti crossed the first hurdle at 747 and the second at 757 level. So it is good for delivery in case the markets recover and trade above 751.

The USFDA case against Ranbaxy could dampen the share rise. The scrip trades below 531 then short sellers enjoy with a stop-loss of 541 from where it will be in Bull grip.
The markets will be volatile as both parties Bulls and Bears determined to win over the other. The Nifty is good for long only when it trades above 4145 level.

Numbers in profits…….

The markets are in full bear grip as they slipped from the 5185 level the very crucial support now has become a distance dream to reach. The fundamental analysts hope that the markets get life from the numbers declared by the companies and the profits in particular. The technical analysts also munching the numbers at which the company has support and resistances. So now the season is immersed in numbers.
The Business Line- Sunday, July 13, 2008, on the front page printed “Institutional investors buy ‘out-of-favour’ sectors in July”. The text covered as “What are institutional investors buying, with the Sensex hovering at 13k levels?. Mid-cap stocks in out-of favour sectors such as realestate, infrastructure, automobile, media and banking apper to have come back into the “buy” list of leading FIIs in July……”

Let the under-performing ( POSTED on Dt 30-06-2008)…..One of the clear signs of trend reversal in a bull market, the outperforming stock of yesterdays starts the signs of under-performance as the days goes by. The Index continues to surge in the same direction but the darlings take a nap. The same is the case with the falling market. There are some stocks those fall very steep than a retail investor could identify/imagine. The outright sell off will be seen with steep falls, as the days pass by every body could recognize that what was happened?. So the Deep-pockets garner the best opportunity to sell. In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. A clear observation can through the opportunity open to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.
To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time are Real estate and Capital goods. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.

It came, went …dust was left….

The results of Infy are no surprise to many but the markets spooked the hopes of Bulls while falling relentlessly. The Nifty lost the bottom support at 4115-11 level and was parked at 4015 and closed at 4049 level with a consolation as this was the first positive close on weekly basis after a long time.

The IIP numbers surprised too many especially to the markets apart from the FM and RBI. The heads need to break their heads to manage the worsening situation forces them to take corrective measures in order to boost the economy and contain the inflation. The job at both hands made them to become busy to speak on economy.

The Infy results brought it to the April month end prices. It ruled two and half months above 1650 and a high at 2030. The results are good and the future out look is not conservative but the markets not enthused.

Yester day I wrote about the Forex losses that came from HCL-tech results and many more companies will publish in the forth coming results.

The Reliance closed below the 2020 level and the next level ….?

Changes in the support levels?.

There are slight changes in the important heavy weights of Nifty which has first support at 4120 level and the second probably the temporary best at 4030 level.The Nifty shall trade above 4180 level to see futher 5% rise. The Infosys results are likely to change sentiment and the Nifty levels. The market always looks for special events and many a times it surprises many.
The Reliance is at the verge of its support at 2020 level and the RPL is struggling to cross the 174 hurdle. The Infosys is good so long it trades above1730 level, Wipro has good support above 435 and will become weak below 421. The TCS is one of the strong counters above 830 and Satyam above 456. The telecom counters are above their support levels but they are showing weakness due to selling pressure above the ruling current levels. The ONGC is struggling to cross the 892 hurdle but it will become weak only below 840.
The positives of yesterday and day before needs to get buying for SBI, REL Infra, NTPC, DLF, ABB and ICICI Bank. The ever escalating inflation figures, the global markets weakness and the challenges of the political parties are likely to dampen the euphoric strength shown by the Bulls.

Just observe I could be wrong: The S.P. support to Govt. strengthened Mr. Amar Sigh and he is (demanding) meeting the officials of different Ministries to dictate the policies of future, sorry I failed to present it correctly; to provide direction to future policies again sorry but the correct presentation is guidance/assistance to varies policy matters.

Waiting for Infosys results….?

The markets not only ours but the Asian markets shrug of the US cues as they are tired of accepting the negatives for the time being. Our markets traded as if they are waiting positive cues from the Tech giant Infosys. As such there was no gross violation in the levels suggested in the earlier postings.
The techs any way produce good results on the back of the depreciated rupee but the surprises will come from the monetary losses due to advance selling of dollars anticipating the rupee strengthening. The dollar-rupee management has become great job at hand to many dollar earning companies. They trade with anticipation of something and the reverse will happen as in the case of day traders do in the market. The result will be same to every one who trade continuously on any markets.
The smaller names are getting buying support in the market is a good sign that the markets are consolidating at the lower levels. This move will help the markets to move further by 10% from these levels. The metal sector got good support and the losers are the auto sector. The real estate pack will loose some market cap in the days to come but the capital goods sector will add value.

Strong bullishness displayed………

The markets soared to new high after it crossed 4100 level as the retail short sellers are in queue to cover.
The lackluster move displayed by the techs showed their strength at the fag end of the trading session. The levels suggested yesterday are valid till they are breached.
To analyse the levels: NTPC is very good above 163, today low is 163. RelInfra is very good above 805 level and the traders might have observed how it rallied from 805 to 845. RCOM is good above 421 level and today low registered at 420. Bharti traded above 731 to reach 758. The Punjlloyd maintained above 230 level. The RIl did not trade below 2025 rallied to 2095 level and the RPL traded at 168-169. The indicators suggested shall not loose their bottom supports to see that markets keep going up wards.
There is a word of caution: A patient discharged from hospital can walk but shall never try jogging/running.

No Left only Right to N-deal….

The UPA govt. lost the support of Left to stay in power to sign the N-deal but manages to garner the like minded parties to corner the Left that the deal is inevitable in current scenario to meet the ever rising energy needs.
So the deal will be through and benefit lots of companies like LT, Punjlloyd, ABB, Areva T&D, Siemens, NTPC, RelInfra and many other smaller companies queuing to cut their share in the cake.
The best thing to the markets is that the uncertainties as odds to Bulls start diluting as the time pass by. The Nifty clearly took support at 3850 level. The banking sector is inviting the MTM loss from their overseas bonds/contracts due to the new guidelines proposed by the RBI and the Reliance weakness crippling the fast run up from these levels.
The frontline stocks likely to advance (for tomorrow & short-term indicators) as the RIL is good above 2025, very good to markets if it can cross 2140 level and shall not trade below 1930 level (last excuse). The RPL shall trade above 167-168 level and shall not trade below 160-161 level.
The RCOM has good support at 405-403 level and good above 421 level. Bharti shall cross and trade above 729-31 level and shall not fall below 706-03. The ONGC shall trade above 886 and shall not trade below 840 level. The NTPC is good above 156 and very good above 163. The Rel Infra is good above 756 and very good if it could trade above 805 level. The Punjlloyd is good above 230 and very good if could cross 246 level but the low shall not breach 204 level.
The tech pack suddenly lost their support and started correcting to adjust to Nifty levels with positive bias.
This may not sound good but the fact is that the bears will not allow the Nifty for a run-up rally with a single/two piece of good news. The smaller political leaders/parities will cry loudly to bring attention for a better bargain could make the Nifty swing widely. During this bold headlines time before seeking the vote of confidence the “deep pocketed” shorts will be covered peacefully. The rally cannot be expected at this point in time as the consolidation has also not happened after the steep sell of fall from 5300 level. So the Nifty may oscillate between 3900-4680 level for July and first half of Aug-08. During this period the crude likely to come around 112-118 dollars and the inflation may show its decline to South-wards.

The pain balm move……

The markets world over are reeling under pressure from the crude weight and the follow-on inflation effects we are no eception but the fall from the heighs on profit booking is a big concern. As a matter of fact the effects of global melt down in equities carry forward to the demand and supply mismatch to commodities and the real estate. The correction in the crude will not give any rally to equities but provide cushion to a fresh free fall.

Now the July-Aug-2007 level is not sacrosanct to hold the Nifty above 4000 level but the looming uncertainties will take the Nifty below 3200 level once the 3800 level is breached. The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty while falling touched without any resistance from the Bulls. Now the markets are on hold from their free fall but the risk takers can try as the adjustments temporarily favour the Bulls.

The weakness in Reliance and the RPL are the major concern as the markets are struggling to accept any wind fall weight from these counters. The fall from highs are a negative signal at this time but the hope lies in the charts as the Nifty closed above 4020 level. In case the Reliance falls below 1950, RPL trades below 161 level then this minor positive sentiment will fade away.

The short term technicals…..

The markets likely to open with positive note as they were tired of negative news and Southward journey. But the up move will be with doubt about the future (now for the next day).

The pure technicals show that the Nifty could move above another 400 points so long it stays above 3945-35 level and Reliance stays above 2025 level. The up move will be sustained for only when the heavy weights shall cross their immediate resistance levels. The frontline counters like Bharati shall cross above 745, Reliance to cross above 2180, ONGC shall cross 900, Infosys shall cross 1800, the TCS shall cross 880, RPL shall cross 178, the UNITECH shall cross 183 and DLF shall cross 440 level.

The worry some factor is that Reliance and RPL counters were noting trading with the momentum as they always.

The confusion creates…..

The markets took the much required support at the 3850 level and the efforts of bulls being respected in placing the Nifty above 4000 level.

The markets are at confusion about the future whether India can out perform at the Global competition as the environment was changed due to the high crude prices and inflation. To add fuel to the fire the local political situation is also very bad even though everybody is trying to pose a brave face while facing the camera.

Whether it is Dr Kalam or Dr Manmohan who recommends the N-deal but the changed economic compulsions forcing us to sign on the deal to safe guard the energy security to the nation. The markets live with short sighted policies, the political compulsions and competitiveness of the economy to excel in future. The perceived robust growth of economy is intact inspite of the above discussed problems.

The monsoon is so far good but the high input cost is becoming an expensive investment at the agriculture level. The farmers are no longer attached to the tag that they need to cultivate and produce food for the rest but they are equating as investment and return.

The first quarter (Mar-June) results and the industry views on the demand supply side at their level will decide the future course of direction of the Nifty.The RBI governs work became very tough to deal with the inflation as limited tools left at his disposal to dealt with the situation. The crude oil price fall can infuse strength to emerging economies like India. The situation will ease as things stand at this point in time. The other challenge is the Rain God’s blessings to India.

The external and the limited controllable situations are controlling the Nifty direction at this point in time. The time will ease things and the turmoil will melt down and the confusion dust will settle down by Sep-08 but the fog of parliament elections will again put speed breaks to the upward Journey of Nifty in 2008.

So all around existing confusion will lay down heavy burden on the shoulders of the Bulls even though the macro and micro economic conditions look bright for the long-term journey ahead.

The early signs…….

The markets are taking the early signs of recovery from these levels. To substantiate the earlier posting, there was a jubilant recovery that occurred as if there was a bull grip over the markets.

Today the market lost all the gains that made yesterday. The silver lining of the days action is that the markets dug enough space to burry. As a matter of fact whose grave yard is this any way?. The markets may test the 3600 level but the bounce could become very sharp as it happened in yesterday’s move. The hope that can light the Bull Run torch could be from the support from the Nuclear deal.

The market stability will also depend on the 4020 level, and shall march above to 4230 level crossing the high of 4285 with in 3-4 trading sessions. Incase this won’t happen then we ca assume that the bottoms were washed till 3100 level. We like it or not the markets know the news better and that will be reflected in the price that is what ultimately represent in the technical analysis. The Reliance shall trade above 2080 level and shall cross the early resistance of 2285. The bottom support of RIL, ONGC, SBI, Infosys, wipro, Bharti, LT, BHEL and DLF shall not be challenged by more than 2 percent.

There is no reason to worry at this point in time as the markets are at cross roads. It could become a good opportunity buy rather than selling the holdings. The bounce will easily take the Nifty to 4560-4630 level. The temporary worst can be considered over when the Reliance Infra crosses 850 level, India Bulls Real-estate crosses 310 level, the LT crosses 2400 level, Bharti crosses 785 level.

Let the under-performing…..

One of the clear signs of trend reversal in a bull market happens when the outperforming stocks of yesterday start the signs of under-performance as the days goes by. The Index continues to surge in the same direction but the darlings take a nap. The same is the case with the falling market. There are some stocks those fall very steep surprises the retail investor and very little could understand. The outright sell off will be seen with steep falls, as the days pass by every body could recognize that what was happened?.The Deep-pockets garner the best opportunity to sell at higher levels and they also enjoy the early gains of up trend.

In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. The stock price always speaks the truth louder than the news. A clear observation can through the opportunity to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.

To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time- Real estate and Capital goods shall start perform. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.

crude CRUDE acting......

The Aug-2007 levels…..May-07 levels...the journey towards south starded in Jan-2008 could end in Sep-08.

The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty touched without any resistance from the bulls.
Now the markets are on a free fall. The risk takers right from the 5100 level, 4800 level and the worst hit at 4600 level were wiped out as the uncertainties are looming large.

The markets got support only when the trend reversal happens at the front line stocks. The best things can be seen only when Reliance crosses 2440 level, ICICI crosses 830 level, ONGC crosses 930 level, SBI crosses 1330 level, BHARTI crosses 860 level, RCOM crosses 610 level and the strongest scrip of these turbulent days- RPL crosses 205, then the core strength in the market will established and will be reflected in the NIFTY. The markets are moving northwards only to sail to southwards with vigour. The FII selling will be over as the stocks fall below their acquisition level. Please see the older posts in which I discussed the same.
To blow once own trumpet, I clearly suggested to invest in technology, Pharma and FMCG in my earlier posts as they could reward the investors in future. Those who invested in FMGC might have experienced the taste of down fall and the rest are still in huge profits.

Those who can venture for longterm can now start cherry picking in Telecoms and the equipment sector. The great old days of infrastructure are far from sight but the malls with cash and carry business is bright. The smaller Indian banks with insurance tag will get good support from FIIs and foreign banks. The best safe bet is always the technology now with a new name - KPO services.

The consolidation is sure…

The markets are taking time to consolidate to take a breakout move. The markets across the globe lost more than 4% but were didn’t participate due to holiday. The markets take the Infosys cue and the yesterday meltdown. Incase the tech bellwether could project well for the next year with out fear due from the GE, then the markets likely to correct by 2% otherwise the markets may close below 4640. The markets shall not close below 4620 for more than two days can cause a severe damage to the Nifty.

As we expected RIL move the real saver of Nifty may not close below 2270 as the news flow is very positive. Incase the Nifty fails to trade above 4650 even the RIL trades above 2280 can be a temporary fall that can become a trap of bears. So the Nifty can move up so long RIL trades above 2120 and RPL trades above 153 then the bulls have some thing more to say in the short term.

IS THIS A CONSISTANT INCONSISTANCY?…

The markets are consistently surprising to the traders and confusing the investors with it's irregular movements. The days are gone for the buy today and sell tomorrow traders in the market( BTST) for next 12 months. The markets will take the run-up only when the retail investors lost their last hope of investing and should come forward to sell their blue-chip holdings in frustration.

So how long the small investor keep his faith for an early rebound?. Observe how the markets world over lost their value in just two months?. If one critically analyse the market operation how good things and favourable news flows continued for more than six months even after the first signs of SUB-PRIME news catching the headlines. But suddenly on a fine morningmarkets fell across the globe. The markets took a deep cut in its value and coundn't bounce back. The bullishness gone and the darkness of inflation due to price rise news started erupting from the volcano of commodities.

Now the suggestions from IMF, World bank and other research/statistical institutions are throwing open suggestions to the third world countries on & how to tackle the situation.

The crisis will be over once the deep pockets grab their chunk of blue-chip stocks across the globe, then the good news will be aired on how strong the economies of emerging countries and their importance in building the new society.

This is all in the game to WIN and enjoy the POWER to dictate the terms.

Infotech to Infratech…..

The strong bottom is necessary for an assured up move that can stay for a longer period of time which can start with a good note at any time has been extended due to inflation worries. The external pressures are intact to put a cap on the speedy upward movement of Nifty. The bottom building is enough incase Infy, Wipro and TCS doesn’t loose much on forex hedging. The greater cause of concern which was confined to books for time being is going to be disclosed with in few weeks.

The Nifty is oscillating between 4550 to 5000 levels- a 10% move for one more month is assured as things stand as of now. The markets may loose some bottom in case the RBI increases CRR by 50 basis points. The markets are reeling under pressure due these issue are of temporary in nature can settle with in 3 months. The growth story of the Indian economy is intact and can expect better investment opportunities in the years to come.

The Infotech story of 2000 can be seen in Infratech in 2010 and after. The best thing is to start investing in infratech companies that can offer huge potential for growth along with the health care sector including pharma. The long-term investors can stay invested in companies engaged in the projects that are under execution that can last more than 36 months. For short term investors best ting is to invest in FMCG that got benefit on palm oil imports. The Nifty is now good at 4500 and so long RIL stays above 2120 the danger to Nifty is safe guarded.

The worst ghost is now focusing on capital goods sector and the silver lining can be seen in tech stocks. The markets are weak due to the inflation numbers and the fear that can come from RBI side are vanished then the worst is over to our markets for at least 6 months as the Nuclear issue can be handled by the new Govt. in office after the elections. The business can be as usual and the policy decisions can be expected as a first sign came from the Central Cabinet that was reshuffled. The message that the Govt. wanted to send to the people and investors is clear that there was no immediate threat from the Left. On this occasion we welcome the new ministers with cheers at the D-street.

More worries for time being…..

The populist measures taken and the long-term growth driven investments made by the Finance Minister was not well received by the markets. The Govt. decision to write off the loans and its confusion to write-off (the long standing bad debts of the farmers) more as the increasing demand from all circles as the opportunity was thrown wide open, took the toll of the markets along with the global meltdown. The market fall provided great lessons to the investment community and to the swing traders “never are hasty to take investment decisions and always wait till the time is ripe”.

The length and the speed at which the market shooted up in Nov & Dec-07, the fall it took in latter part of Jan and March are best opportunities to exit and re-invest at this levels. The market operation never is ideal or convenient to the retail investor to take a right decision at right time. Any way these discussions are about the history and now any body could suggest what could be a right decision.

The best opportunity now available is to invest in blue chips considering the Budget proposals. The undisputed statement is Indian economy is an internal demand/growth driven economy and the proposed investments will not be differed. So focus on growth sectors that can safely lead the index to new highs with in 18 months from now. The market leaders are going to change this time from power to pharma related business.

This time the epicenter of the multidimensional industrial/economic growth will be health care- Bulk Drugs & formulations, Pharma research, CRAMS, Hospital services and allied services. The eco-tourism will become health tourism as an integral part of the health care services.

Start accumulating the blue-chips…..

In my earlier write up clearly mention not to sell the enterprise so long the growth prospects are in tact in the long run. As an investor in stock markets one needs to be conscious to understand the developments happing around the globe and try to understand the impact over the prospects of the industry that was chosen as an investment opportunity. Please read my earlier write ups that can throw some light on the future prospects and the necessary levels that Nifty and the frontline stocks that needs to cross. Pls. read…. Distribute and eliminate…(21-11-2007), The end of the BULLRUN?.(17-12-2008), No longer immune…….(06-01-2008)

Never sell the Enterprise…(Dt.29-1-08)

The markets are facing rough time but the ray of hope lies in the growth story. The markets are likely to bounce back to new levels and even cross the High in the months to come as the dust will settle after two quarters. The India’s economy growth is intact and the corporate performance will improve in future. The internal consumption is huge and the breadth is increasing by strength.

The Nifty is strong at 4500-4600 levels. The range suggested earlier (5200 to 6300) is still a valid range as the FII’s have heavily from 19th Sep-07 to 16th Oct-07, invested at the 4500-5700 Nifty levels. The FII out flow is a cause of concern at this point in time but not at all a worry some event.

So long Reliance stays above 2430-50 level, ICICI stays above 1035-29 level and the ONGC stays above 1000-990, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support.

It is very unfortunate that the retail investors who buy at the high/index and sell at the bottom of the index. The stock market investment is a skillful and precision job where knowledge and experience go hand in hand.
The novice investors, who mostly lured by the media message, think that it is very easy to make money from the market operations. The seasoned operators spread the rumors with lucrative price targets that attract the scapegoats to stock markets. The fresh flesh of scapegoats makes the feast tasty at the bourses. Like the instant coffee making machine, markets never spin sustained money but the losers at all times believe the rumors that it pores money but most retailers choose markets as investment avenue just because it allows everybody to participate even with their meager hard earned money.
The false conviction promotes to take large leveraged positions to make quick money at the earliest possible duration. The suggestions from the seniors turned down at the instance and that becomes melodious music to the deaf ears as every body thinks that the cheese is large enough to have their share.
It is a great opportunity for those who recognize the treasure that was stored in the stock markets and invest regularly for a period of time like any other plantations but most lack the patience to grab the opportunity. It is very important to identify a right stock at the right time is the crux of making money at the bourses -“Early bird catches the fish”.

Get the Bud from the “Budget”………

The stimulus dose has been given to the slowing economy by the FM. The dose is a long acting balanced one. The sustained release of the budget proposal can be a good foundation to maintain the 8.5% growth rate. So get plant with the bud now and enjoy the fragrance of the flower later.

The auto sector will benefit from the excise cut but the rising cost of inputs is a great concern. So no run up or flare up at this point in time but the laggards will benefit the most in the long run.
The banking sector got the liquidity from the write off and support to the extent from the govt. The real problem is the new loan can get the repayment on time?.
The cigarettes get costlier that to the poor persons choice- no filtered one.
The Dividend double taxation is no more can support the parent companies whose subsidiaries are doing well.
The excise cut and rationalization of CENVAT can save good amount of tax saving to big companies, can add to the bottom line of the manufacturing sector.
The drag is from the petrochemical sector and the techies. The customs duty cut at the import level can save some amount but the levies on naptha will eat away the profits.
The tea sector got the excise relief.
The steel sector is nothing to worry or cry for the direct support from the govt. The infrastructure spending can take care.
The tourism and the hotel sector go hand in hand for their survival.
The cement companies are paying the price for the confrontation they made, now the telecom sector joined.
The set top boxes, data cords and the Internet expansion can add to volumes but not from the “Hello FM”.
The cold chain and the retailers are the sustained growth sectors in future got the required support from the budget.
The clear winner of the budget is the Pharma. The companies can get undisputed and the most required support on fronts. The hospitals also got the support and the health of net profit “insured”, be improved upon.

The Nifty can get the bottom support but the draggers put pressure on the top.

The politicians and the bureaucrats failed to dig-out the accumulated black money for more than 50 years but understood to crush the genuine tax players. The most unorganized sector of Dalal Street got deathblow. The Day traders whose support is crucial for the liquidity mercilessly squeezed. The need of the hour is to create a big union of the day traders and the short-term investors/momentum supporters to get the voice heard to the Delhi lobby.

A WILD DREAM- “THE MINISTER FOR SPECULATION” - WRITEOFF THE LOSSES MET BY DAY TRADERS AND SMALL INVESTORS AND 25 % TO HNIs, INCURRED DURING THE STEEPFALLS FROM 1991 UPTO JAN-2008. THE MINSTER ALSO QUOTED “ LOSS IS A LOSS TO ANY BODY AND THE GOVT. IS MADE BY EVEVRY BODY SO NOT COMITTED FOR SOMEBODY”.

STILL TO CROSS…

In spite of the best efforts by the Bulls at the opening, taking cues from the global surge, failed to absorb the selling pressure. As posted earlier the Nifty failed to cross the 5371-75 levels but could hold the bottom intact that suits for Bulls.
The retail investors are no more enthusiastic to invest even though the stock prices are at mouth-watering levels. The smart money is entering but very selective to support the stocks like- SAIL, techs-Inosys, Satyam and the pharma pack Sun, Cipla, Ranbaxy, Biocon (these were already suggested-read earlier posts.)

Not a good sign but……

As posted earlier the markets opened higher on Monday and Tuesday but failed to hold the gains made last week, as a matter of fact Nifty touched a high of 5368 a level that is most important for the bulls. (..The markets likely to open high but has to close above 5365-71 to continue the efforts made by the bulls during the week long fight against the bears/global concerns….). The real damage has done to Nifty today when it failed to hold above 5200 but the ray of silver line hope lingering at the other end of the tunnel that it could cover the losses by the week end and stays above 5263 will become a good sign. The positive side of the Nifty is still above 5085 on closing basis but the frontline counters failed to cheer the bulls.

Incase RIL trades below 2350, ICICI below 1066, ONGC below 930, SBI below 2128 and SAIL below 204 (very crucial levels) then there a serious damage done to the Nifty and will correct sharply to 4000 levels. The markets may take longer period to revive than expected earlier. As of now, I think that the bulls are inviting bears to sell as much they could to trap them heavily before the good news known to every body.

The Retail Investors can avail the opportunity to eat more stock-food to fatten the kitty but shall not expose to swallow the bullet.

The closing is crucial….

The markets likely to open high but has to close above 5365-71 to continue the efforts made by the bulls during the week long fight against the bears/global concerns. The immediate resistance will come at 5471-85 level. The markets any way face resistance at every level but the crucial thing is that it should not loose the bottom support. The markets may oscillate for next two weeks till the budgets boosts the sentiment. The policy matters likely to infuse new blood in the markets if it stays above 5480 by Feb series. The blue chips in the banking sector building hopes on insurance sector and economic growth may find good support from bulls once the Budget sops announced to Heath insurance and the corporate tax cut. The FM will infuse large savings of industry and personal income to plough back for rapid growth well above 9%.

The pharma sector will get FII support as they encouraged the IT sector. So KOI- Keep On Investing in stocks that do the CRAMS business. The power equipment sector will be no more a favourate on the bourses but the encouragement will afloat the stocks at these levels. The boom in the realty will continue to stay and the stocks will out perform the Nifty. The emerging sector will be CNG and gas distribution in the towns. The RNRL will see more good days than now. The GAIL will benefit the most than the other stocks in the Nifty.

The Nifty will find first support at 5135 level and 5085 is crucial. Incase Nifty trades below 5085, then offload 50% of the holding. The RIL has support at 2356-26, Infy has support at 1441-45 levels but it is good above 1505-11 levels. The ICICI bank has support at 1135-30 and SBI has support at 2130-35 levels. The relatively weak counters are Bharti and RCOM. The Bharti has to cross 909 at the earliest possible time and shall trade above 850. The RCOM has to cross 645 and shall trade above 611-15 levels to see that the stocks get bulls support along with the Nifty advancement. The positive sentiment will become a foundation for next big movement when the Nifty trades above 5545.

Some time needed…

The markets taken the timely u-turn to see new highs in future but it will take some time to do so.
As suggested in the previous posting the Nifty took a deep low at around 4800 and trapped the ardent bears to see further low. The earlier suggested level for the Nifty is at 5085 but to trap the bears it took a deep low at 4803 but took bottom support at that level for 3-trading sessions and the journey took the index to reach 5300 levels. This classic example can be correlated with the BHEL support at 2047 and then a trap to bring at 1850 levels to see the bears live in joy for a day or two. Try to understand the game plan behind the moves to understand the stock market operation.

The length of fall is so deep that it could take more time to bring the retail investors to market. The financially damaged retail investors tasted bitter experience with R-Power, are experiencing a series of failures at their investment decisions. They are now nostalgic to the heart pains/caused wounds. They need more time to forget the bad feelings of buying stocks and will become scapegoats again at the top.

So always “Buy Low and Sell High”- this could be a valid proposition only when one understands the market movements. The other way of investment in stocks is “Buy when the trader’s margin selling happens and Sell when the trader is confident to take delivery with margin”.

No longer a long fall..

The Nifty has created a great concern suddenly dropping nearly by 200 points from previous week. Now the markets are moving Southwards in spite of smart money entering into prime stocks. The best thing is let the market fall to the deepest possible place, as it is a trap to bears; once it crosses 5135 buy the good stocks that have limited scope to fall. The best thing is to accumulate the out-performing sectors like pharma, auto and techs to some extent. The weak signals are not over but the hope is building by strength on the budget expectations on tax sops to corporates. As posted earlier the Reliance got support at 2390 level and closed at 2426.

The worrying factor is that that markets did not excused the slow down in the growth when the CSO announced the data. The steep fall more than 180 points damaged the short-term prospects of early recovery of Nifty. Now Nifty will advance definite, confirmed growth prospects. This provides an excellent opportunity for cherry picking in the lot. The clear signals of advance movements confirmed in software stocks like Infosys, so long it stays above 1470 favours the bulls and likely to gain over Rs 200/-, can easily cross 1749-1770, Satyam can cross 453-460 range, Wipro can cross 463. The smart money is entering in the auto sector, especially Tata Motors will run above 740 to 870 range and the rest will follow. The defensive sector Pharma will now infuse fresh momentum with the tax benefits to the R&D and the private equity players encourage our companies to expand to meet the demand of CRAMS business. The top players like Cipla and Ranbaxy started bottom building. The stocks like Dishman, Divis, Nicholas and Matrix will give 60-100 % returns in one year. So falling Nifty cause tension for those whose investments are for a week to 10 days (now forger Buy Today Sell Tomorrow story). Nobody has ever thought how dangerous it is to find a fool for the next day to buy those dumped stocks on premium for a single night holding.

The Worst is not over…

The global turmoil has not came to an end as one after one bad news is unwinding after every rise the markets are inching globally. The spin that created due to sub-prime issue is going to settle in a week’s time as the eve of Budget-08 is going to creat its interest at the Indian bourses.

The technical’s are building on weak foundations of global cues at Nifty level but the bottom building is on. Incase the Budget fails to meet the market expectations then the markets likely to touch 4135-45 range and may stay in that range for more than an year as the election schedule will dampen the markets. So the crucial support at the first level exists at 5115-5085, then the crux of Nifty support exists at 4503-4518.

The markets look southwards so long Reliance trade below 2645-50, but the Bulls keep their faith strongly to fight against all odds until Reliance trades above 2400-2380. The immediate support for the Nifty is at 5225-15 and the front line Nifty movers are favouring the bulls at this point in time.

As simple as that ….

The stock market is a beautiful place where all can gather and have fun, offering parties, celebrating for some body’s fall is also seen even when the days of mourning were announced at the bourses. This is a common phenomenon that can be tracked across the world. The interested groups gather to enjoy the party when some body made a “Killing” in the market while the Bull move is on. These easy earnings and celebrations throw lots of hope in the individuals who are even called at that particular point as spectators of the “Stock Game”. At this point in time no-body listens -“Stock market game is no child’s play”.

These spectators spread the news of how easy it is to mint lakhs/crores at the bourses that to in weeks/days. These people motivate the sleeping/non-participators to grab the ever-flooding opportunities in the stock market. Slowly but surely the “chain action” will spread the news to streets. The “chain action generated reaction” will increase the activity in the market that propels the prices to higher levels. The money flows and chases the stocks unabated. The crux of the game starts here- the fag end retail investor/new participant think that the up move is real and permanent. This story is not new to the seasoned but they also get trapped as they think/rather advance a bit before the fall starts. So they get trapped twice in the short side and their stop losses get triggered. The new comers will lift the stocks shorted by the seasoned as they think that the move is a “God sent opportunity”.

Now the operators build positions against the up move at the top/plateau, they tend to loose some notional loss as the stock even move higher. The seasoned traders think that the high volume built up at the top is a bottom building exercise for a fresh move. So they tend to go long or wait for confirmation of the long move that keeps them away from shorting or leaving their deliveries. The real crack down will happen at that movement that leads to sharp fall in the market. The new comers and the margin traders get wiped out of the system. The losses put burden on their families and the crying on streets by blaming the “Market” becomes a day of activity for some time. The newspapers mention in their headlines how the Govt. failed to save the retail investor. But very little effort has done to educate the investors. No media tried enough to educate the retailer investor about the over greediness/underling dangers of capital loss or the need for systematic investment plan over a period of time. We all know that the story repeats once again after some time.

The cracks can be seen before a collapse; like that the sprout cracks the ground to emerge. The stock market is no different from nature, do some homework, understand the business cycles and the company prospects before investing. Above all the stock market operation is as simple as that ‘Never build the herd mentality but Follow the Trend”.