GREAT- STEVE JOBS

On Thursday 6 October 2011, 7:51 AM

REUTERS - U.S. President Barack Obama joined an outpouring of tributes to Steve Jobs , calling the Apple co-founder a visionary and great American innovator.

"Steve was among the greatest of American innovators - brave enough to think differently, bold enough to believe he could change the world, and talented enough to do it," Obama said of Jobs, who died on Wednesday.

The U.S. President was joined by political, technology, entertainment and business leaders around the world in paying tribute to Jobs. A selection:

BILL GATES, MICROSOFT CO-FOUNDER AND CHAIRMAN

"Steve and I first met nearly 30 years ago, and have been colleagues, competitors and friends over the course of more than half our lives. The world rarely sees someone who has had the profound impact Steve has had, the effects of which will be felt for many generations to come. For those of us lucky enough to get to work with him, it's been an insanely great honor."

MARK ZUCKERBERG, FACEBOOK FOUNDER AND CEO, ON FACEBOOK

"Steve, thank you for being a mentor and a friend. Thanks for showing that what you build can change the world. I will miss you.

BOB IGER, CEO OF WALT DISNEY CO

" Steve Jobs was a great friend as well as a trusted advisor. His legacy will extend far beyond the products he created or the businesses he built. It will be the millions of people he inspired, the lives he changed, and the culture he defined. Steve was such an 'original,' with a thoroughly creative, imaginative mind that defined an era. Despite all he accomplished, it feels like he was just getting started."

MITT ROMNEY, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL, ON TWITTER

" Steve Jobs is an inspiration to American entrepreneurs. He will be missed."

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER, FORMER CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR, ON TWITTER

"Steve lived the California Dream every day of his life and he changed the world and inspired all of us."

MARK CUBAN, ENTREPRENEUR, ON TWITTER

"The PC era is officially over. #RIP #STEVEJOBS

INVESTOR MARC ANDREESSEN

"Steve was the best of the best. Like Mozart and Picasso, he may never be equalled."

PAUL ALLEN, CO-FOUNDER OF MICROSOFT

"We've lost a unique tech pioneer and auteur who knew how to make amazingly great products. Steve fought a long battle against tough odds in a very brave way. He kept doing amazing things in the face of all that adversity. As someone who has had his own medical challenges, I couldn't help but be encouraged by how he persevered."

MICHAEL DELL, CEO OF DELL INC

"Today the world lost a visionary leader, the technology industry lost an iconic legend and I lost a friend and fellow

founder. The legacy of Steve Jobs will be remembered for generations to come."

LARRY PAGE, CEO OF GOOGLE, ON GOOGLE+

"He was a great man with incredible achievements and amazing brilliance. He always seemed to be able to say in very few words what you actually should have been thinking before you thought it. His focus on the user experience above all else has always been an inspiration to me."

STEVE CASE, FOUNDER OF AOL, ON TWITTER

"I feel honored to have known Steve Jobs . He was the most innovative entrepreneur of our generation. His legacy will live on for the ages."

JEFF BEWKES, CEO OF TIME WARNER

"The world is a better place because of Steve, and the stories our company tells have been made richer by the products he created. He was a dynamic and fearless competitor, collaborator, and friend. In a society that has seen incredible technological innovation during our lifetimes, Steve may be the one true icon whose legacy will be remembered for a thousand years."

DICK COSTOLO, CEO OF TWITTER, ON TWITTER

Tributes pour in for Steve Jobs , dead at 56

" Once in a rare while, somebody comes along who doesn't just raise the bar, they create an entirely new standard of measurement. #RIPSteveJobs"

ARTHUR SULZBERGER, CHAIRMAN OF THE NEW YORK TIMES CO

" Steve Jobs was a visionary and a wonderful friend of The New York Times. He pushed the boundaries of how all providers of news and information interact with our users. I am among the many who deeply regret his passing."

JOHN RICCITIELLO, CEO OF ELECTRONIC ARTS

"Steve was one of a kind. For many of us working in technology and entertainment, Steve was a new kind of hero that lead with big, bold moves and would not settle for less than perfection. He is the best role model for a leader that aspires to be great."

SPIKE LEE, PRODUCER/DIRECTOR/ACTOR, ON TWITTER

"VISIONARIES are always called CRAZY in the beginning. A VISIONARY sees things that everybody else says is IMPOSSIBLE, sees a World that People can't invision (sic)-MAC, IPOD, IPAD, IPHONE, ITUNES and PIXAR. I have nothing but Love for Mr. Jobs and Apple, they have always given me and my films L-O-V-E. Peace and Blessings to his family”. “Thanks Yahooo!"

Jobs "May Never Be Equalled"

On Thursday 6 October 2011, 10:30 AM

Passionate, prickly, and deemed irreplaceable by many Apple fans and investors, Steve Jobs made a life defying conventions and expectations.

And despite years of poor health, his death on Wednesday at the age of 56 prompted a global gasp as many people remembered how much he had done to transform the worlds of computing, music and mobile phones, changing the way people communicate and access information and entertainment.

"The world rarely sees someone who has had the profound impact Steve has had, the effects of which will be felt for many generations to come," said Microsoft co-founder and long-time rival Bill Gates.

"For those of us lucky enough to get to work with him, it's been an insanely great honor."

The founder of Apple Inc died on Wednesday in Palo Alto, surrounded by his family. The circumstances of his passing were unclear, but Jobs has had a long battle with cancer and other health issues.

Jobs' family thanked many for their prayers during the last year of Steve's illness.

A college dropout, Jobs floated through India in search of spiritual guidance prior to founding Apple - a name he suggested to his friend and co-founder Steve Wozniak after a visit to a commune in Oregon he referred to as an "apple orchard."

With his passion for minimalist design and marketing genius, Jobs changed the course of personal computing during two stints at Apple and then brought a revolution to the mobile market.

The iconic iPod, the iPhone - dubbed the "Jesus phone" for its quasi-religious following - and the iPad are the creation of a man who was known for his near-obsessive control of the product development process.

"Most mere mortals cannot understand a person like Steve Jobs," said bestselling author and venture capitalist Guy Kawasaki, a former Apple employee, in a recent interview. He considers Jobs "the greatest CEO in the history of man", adding that he just had "a different operating system."

Charismatic, visionary, ruthless, perfectionist, dictator - these are some of the words that people have used to describe Jobs, who may have been the biggest dreamer the technology world has ever known, but also was a hard-edged businessman and negotiator through and through.

"Steve was the best of the best. Like Mozart and Picasso, he may never be equalled," said Marc Andreessen, venture capitalist and co-founder of Netscape Communications.

Microsoft's Gates had called Jobs the most inspiring person in the tech industry and President Barack Obama held him up as the embodiment of the American Dream.

It's hard to imagine a bigger success story than Steve Jobs, but rejection, failure and bad fate were part and parcel of who he was. Jobs was given away at birth, driven out of Apple in the mid-80s and struck with cancer when he finally had regained the top of the mountain.

He resigned as CEO of Apple Inc on August 24 - saying he could no longer fulfill the duties - and briefly served as chairman before his death.

Jobs grew up with an adopted family in Silicon Valley, which was turning from orchards to homes for workers at Lockheed and other defense and technology companies.

Electronics friend Bill Fernandez introduced him to boy engineer Wozniak, and the two Steves began a friendship that eventually bred Apple Computer.

"Woz is a brilliant engineer, but he is not really an entrepreneur, and that's where Jobs came in," recently remembered Fernandez, who was the first employee at Apple.

Wozniak earlier this year said that his goal was only to design hardware and he had no interest in running Apple.

"Steve Jobs' role was defined -- you've got to learn to be an executive in every division of the company so you can be the world's most important person some day. That was his goal," joked Wozniak, who is still listed as an employee, even though he has not worked at Apple for years.

Awful-Tasting Medicine
Jobs created Apple twice - once when he founded it and the second time after a return credited with saving the company, which now vies with Exxon Mobil as the most valuable publicly traded corporation in the United States.

Every day to him was "a new adventure in the company," Jay Elliot, a former senior vice president at Apple who worked very closely with Jobs in the eighties, said earlier this year, adding that he was "almost like a child" when it came to his inquisitiveness.

He was highly intolerant of company politics and bureaucracy, Elliot noted.

But the inspiring Jobs came with a lot of hard edges, oftentimes alienating colleagues and early investors with his my-way-or-the-highway dictums and plans that were generally ahead of their time.

Elliot was a witness to the acrimony between Jobs and former Apple Chief Executive John Sculley who often clashed on ideas, products and the direction of the company.

The dispute came to a head at Apple's first major sales meeting in Hawaii in 1985 where the two "just blew up against each other," Elliot said.

Jobs left soon after, saying he was fired.

"It was awful-tasting medicine, but I guess the patient needed it. Sometimes life's gonna hit you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith," Jobs told a Stanford graduating class in 2005.

He returned to Apple about a decade after he left, working as a consultant. Soon he was running it, in what has been called Jobs' second act.

Jobs reinvented the technology world four or five times, first with the Apple II, a beautiful personal computer in the 1970s; then in the 1980s with the Macintosh, driven by a mouse and presenting a clean screen that made computing inviting; the ubiquitous iPod debuted in 2001, the iPhone in 2007 and in 2010 the iPad, which a year after it was introduced outsold the Mac.

Thanks…(Reuters)

Milestones in a tech legend's journey

Arun Kumar, On Thursday 6 October 2011, 12:00 PM

Washington, Oct 6 (IANS) Apple's visionary co-founder Steve Jobs, who died after a long battle with cancer Wednesday, is credited with turning the once loss making company into one of the world's largest tech giants. Here are the milestones:

1955: Stephen Paul Jobs born Feb 24.

1972: Jobs enrols in Reed College in Portland, Oregon, but drops out after a semester.

1974: Works for video game maker Atari and attends meetings of the Homebrew Computer Club with Steve Wozniak, a high school friend.

1976: Apple Computer is formed on April Fools' Day, shortly after Wozniak and Jobs create a new computer circuit board in a Silicon Valley garage. The Apple I later goes on sale for $666.66.

1977: Apple is incorporated by its founders and a group of venture capitalists. It unveils Apple II, the first PC to generate colour graphics.

1980: Apple goes public, raising $110 million in one of the biggest IPOs.

1983: Apple starts selling the 'Lisa', a desktop computer for businesses with a graphical user interface.

1984: Apple debuts the Macintosh personal computer.

1985: Jobs and CEO John Sculley clash, leading to Jobs' resignation. Wozniak also resigns.

1986: Jobs founds Next, a company making high-end machines for universities. He buys Pixar from Star Wars creator George Lucas for $10 million.

1991: Apple and IBM announce an alliance to develop new PC microprocessors and software.

1994: Apple introduces Power Macintosh based on the PowerPC chip it developed with IBM and Motorola. Apple licenses its operating software, allowing others to clone the Mac.

1995: The first Mac clones go on sale. Microsoft releases Windows 95. Pixar's Toy Story, the first commercial computer-animated feature, hits theatres.

1996: Apple buys Next for $430 million.

1997: Jobs returns to Apple after the company records losses of more than $1.8 billion. CEO Gil Amelio is pushed out. Jobs ends Mac clones.

1998: Apple returns to profitability and unveils the iMac desktop computer.

2000: Jobs is named CEO of Apple.

2001: The first iPod goes on sale, as do computers with OS X, the modern Mac operating system based on Next software.

2003: Apple launches the iTunes music store with 200,000 songs at 99c each. Users can also buy and download music, audiobooks, movies and TV shows online.

2004: Jobs undergoes surgery for a rare but curable form of pancreatic cancer.

2006: Disney buys Pixar for $7.4 billion. Jobs becomes Disney's largest sole shareholder and much of his wealth is derived from this sale.

2007: Apple releases the iPhone.

2008: Apple opens its App Store as an update to iTunes amid mounting speculation that Jobs is ill.

2009: Jobs returns from medical leave in June after undergoing a liver transplant.

2010: Apple sells 15 million iPads in nine months and has an 84 percent share of the tablet market by year's end.

2011: Apple launches the iPad 2 on March 2.

2011: Jobs' resignation as CEO announced Aug 24. He is replaced by Tim Cook, Apple's chief operating officer.

2011: Jobs dies Oct 5 at age of 56 after battle with pancreatic cancer.

(Arun Kumar can be contacted at arun.kumar@ians.in)-THANKS

BEARISH VIEWS FLOWING....

ONE MORE ARTICLE TO SUPPORT MY EARLIER PUBLISHED VIEW OF BOTTOM SUPPORT AT 4500 LEVEL. bUT THE DIRECT FALL TO IS NOT ON THE CARDS....

MARKETS LOST GROUND ESPECIALLY ON THE GLOBAL TURMOIL, NOW CRIPPLED BY DOMESTIC EVENTS...SBI DOWNGRADE ......MORE TO FOLLOW ON  BANKING ISSUES....AFTER 2G..MINING..LAND SCAMS......INFLATION....

Exhausted already? Bad news! Market can take out 8-10% more

Published on Tue, Oct 04, 2011 at 18:08 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Tue, Oct 04, 2011 at 22:40  

Moneycontrol Bureau

It was a sea of red on Dalal Street as investors were left shell-shocked by a Moody’s downgrade of the nation's numero uno lender, State Bank of India .

Moody's cut SBI's ratings from C minus to D plus and said that the bank's tier-I equity cannot support its growth and rising rates.

SBI, however, is not unduly worried.

The PSU major's March disclosure is still haunting the bank, believes Mehraboon Irani, principal and head of private client group business at Nirmal Bang Securities. The profit after tax (PAT) had tumbled a whopping 99% Y-o-Y to a meager Rs 20.8 crore.

Also, Irani said, people have started to ask questions about SBI’s proposed rights issue. "Even if they [SBI] come out with a rights issue at a near date, the fact is that SBI will need to absorb the higher credit cost for the growing NPAs. Now, NPAs were already around 3.2% as of the last quarter. I think everything is not easy as far as the bank is concerned," he said.

According to Irani, even at the present price, SBI still has negatives around. “I am still resisting from giving a “buy” recommendation at the present level,” he said.

It is a wake up call for Indian public sector undertakings — the way they have been managed, feels Sudip Bandyopadhyay of Destimoney Securities. “Everybody knew that the bank needs tier-I capital and the government was dilly-dallying. In the midst of it, Moody’s came and cut the rating. It is unfortunate. SBI will find it pretty difficult. Its cost of borrowing will go up in the international market. And considering they have significant overseas operations, it is unfortunate. However, one word of caution is that we should not read too much into these rating agencies figures their credibility is also a suspect,” he said.

In this backdrop of downgrades and global uncertainty, the Nifty plummeted 100 points but recovered to close at 4,772 down 77 points, while the Sensex lost 286 points to close at 15,864. The index has shed over 800 points in three days.

The obvious questions on investors’ minds right now would be: Are the current valuations attractive and how much more fall can one expect in the markets? Also, is the fall a good time for investors to get in and buy more?

Well, markets can certain fall further from current levels, said technical analyst Abhijit Paul, AVP at Brics Securities Limited. “I think that we can definitely drift below the previous low of 4700 on the Niftyfuture,” he stated adding, “I sense that equities are likely to drift further down to the tune of 8-10% from hereon.”

He advised holding on to, the Nifty future on the downside, closer to that 4430-4480 range, where there is a meaningful confluence of supports.

But the problem, according to Irani, is that nobody wants to buy because people know that they are surrounded by poor macros, globally and locally.

"Valuations across the board can become more and more attractive as we go ahead over the next one to three months," he believed.

For investors to seriously start looking at the market, we need to see a more sustainable rally, explained Anil Manghnani of Modern Shares & Stock Brokers.

"You are not getting sustained shorts, where you create enough shorts in the system after which you will have a nice pullback rallies. I want to see that discount become bigger. I would like to see 4720 break. I am not trying to be negative. All I am trying to say is it will call for the next better rally, more sustainable rally," Manghnani said.

Sagar Salvi
sagar.salvi@network18online.com THANKS TO AUTHOR AND CNBC

WEALTH CREATION.....

10 important steps in wealth building

P V Subramanyam, On Monday 19 September 2011, 3:26 PM

Wealth creation is a time consuming, easy to understand and very difficult to implement process. There are no cut fast rules on how to create wealth.

Deepak Parekh, Uday Kotak, Rashesh Shah, Nirmal Jain, Raheja, Hiranandani, are all people who have created wealth by the greatest method. Run a good business, leverage with people and brand building. Leverage with geography and borrowed funds….then take the company public. By doing this every rupee of earning gets valued at 30 for Mr. Deepak Parekh (HDFC has a P/E of 30) and similar numbers for the others. These people made their money from equities, debt, commodities and of course listing their companies!  I am not talking that league, yet.

Let us see what all you should know — we will start with 10 steps:

1. Understand the Power of Compounding: it looks odd to realise that the power of compounding is NOT taught well at school! They give you some simple examples — rarely are you taught the POWER! Even people working in financial services do not appreciate the power of compounding. Ignore this only at YOUR OWN PERIL.

2. Understand the Power of NOW: LEARN the power of starting to compound as soon as possible in life. If you have not understood, NO TIME LIKE TODAY..pick up the pen, call the advisor, click on the net — whateva…just start, NOW, TODAY.

3. Understand the Power of Regularity — start a SIP AND make sure you do it regularly — not missing a single month. If by chance you do miss a month of investing, immediately pick up a cheque and send it in! At the end of a YEAR you should have invested 12* Amount being invested every month. If suddenly you have money, top up the SAME account.

4. Understand the power of Not Touching the Money for 'n' years: Capital and Wealth creation needs long periods of growth. If you do not touch the money for any sundry purpose, leave it untouched. This helps in compounding. REmember this for life!

5. Understand the power of LEARNING: If you are willing to wish to invest in equities — directly or through mutual funds,    learn as much  as possible about equities. Invest in learning, before you invest your money.

6. If you do not (or will not) learn about equities, never mind, learn the power of indexing in equities!

7. Learn simple things like keeping your accounts in an excel sheet and keep track of the paise….the rupee will take care of itself. Track your income, collect all monies due, track your expenses, track your investing and returns.

8. For events which you know invest. For sad events which MAY happen,insure. You never know….

9.Remember delayed gratification may not be easy, learn it. Food which gives 30 seconds of pleasure on the tongue stays in your waist for 30 years. I understand this….but when I see a sweet I still fall for it. Knowing and implementing are completely different animals. Alas!

10. Invest in education, training, health, travel and fun. Very important to remember do not forget the present for doing something great in the future. The future is important, but the present is vital.

The author P V Subramanyam is a Chartered Accountant by qualification and a financial trainer by profession. Writing being a passion he also regularly pens his thought in his blog Subramoney.com

 THANKS TO YAHOO.....

THE FUTURE IS GOOD....ONLY........

The earlier postings suggested from my end to 4500 level, now this article illustrates the possible bottom available to markets to float.

Moneycontrol » News » Markets » Expert & FII Outlook

Nifty's immediate downside may be at 4400-4600:Sampriti Cap

The immediate downside for Nifty would probably be 4,400 to 4,600 levels, but it might not necessarily be the final bottom, feels Sandeep Shah, chief executive officer of Sampriti Capital.

When volatility index (VIX) is very high, market tends to see very sharp movements. "We would see 30% corrections," he told CNBC-TV18 in an interview. If you see the 2003-2007 bull market, the 30% correction happened two-three times, driven by global problems. This time, we not only have global problems, but we also have local problems, he said.

A lot of milestones have to be tracked, which will tell whether we are in the final bottom or not. One of that would be the sovereign debt crisis solved, he mentioned.

If the market goes 10%, midcaps should correct 20-30% and even 40% sometimes, Shah pointed out. For example, for a-10 lakh portfolio, one should have hedged the Nifty by selling 30 or 40 lakh, he explained. This bear market is almost a year old now and the bull market corrections don’t last for a year.

This week, gold collapsed which has been the ultimate sign of the risk aversion for the whole world. The Europeans said last week and yesterday that they can’t rule out a Greek default and gold fell.

According to Shah, the situation now had many similarities as well as differences compared it to the 2008 situation. The VIX is the price that one has to pay for options compared to their intrinsic value. In the last phase, after Lehman collapsed, the VIX went above 36 for the first time and even crossed 60. Now, the VIX is once again is above 36.

After the Lehman collapsed, all asset classes like equities and commodities sold-off, which included the base and precious metals like gold. The same situation has been occurring even now, Shah feels. The Europeans have been the biggest suppliers of credit to the emerging markets, but now don’t want to give money to them. Similarly, nobody wants to give money to the Europeans.

Dollar is considered to be the most preferred and convenient for of asset overseas. So, everybody has been holding up their dollars which is why the dollar index is going up. The dollar index has gone up from 73 to 77 levels. In the past, the dollar index went up to 84 levels. Comparatively, this 77 levels rally has been fairly smallish so far, he added.

Here is the edited transcript of his interview.

Q: How do you position yourself now? Would you take a market call or view? Would you buy some stocks and wait for it to work if Nifty gets to 4,600 levels? Would you hide in debt right now and won’t get into stocks? A lot of people have a binary kind of an approach to stock markets now because they don't have a staggered approach. What do you tell this crowd to do today?

A: One has to have needs to ask themselves whether they are a pure long-term investor or trader or nimble and now much pain can they take? Every time the market corrected, we have seen a 10% to 15% bounce backs.

If you had some of the consumption stocks in the bull market, then you made a lot of money. If we get to 4,400-4,600 levels this time, I would still be cautious. I would look to buy defensives only if they have corrected and not otherwise.

On Thursday, the high beta and defensives sold off because there was panic as the rupee rolled like all emerging market currencies. A lot of FIIs wanted to book profits. If it was one of the safest stocks in the market like a Petronet LNG, which has corrected about 15%, it's bounced back.

A trader or investor, willing to take a bit of pain and is able to buy if stocks go lower, should put in a bit of your cash, not more than 50% or maybe 1/3rd. The bounce backs will happen. There would be positive views every time when there will be no bad news and the market will bounce back.

Q: How do you approach these bounce backs? Every now and then you will see pessimism and then a 500 point Nifty rally. If you were lucky enough to buy around 4,700 levels and got to 5,100 levels, our bought stocks went up 10% 12%. Would you sell them and wait for another big decline to come?

A: In that case, sell at least 50% of your holding. In a 10% bounce back, some stocks might have gone up just 4-5%, but a lot of stocks went up 20-30%. If you are willing to buy at lower levels, be willing to trade a little bit of your portfolio and sell a portion of it at higher levels.

If you bought the right stock, there are chances that it might not come down again. It's still worth taking a risk for because there will be opportunities to buy. Markets always say that we will get opportunities. If 2008 happened, 2011 is happening.

Q: What would you suggest the people who have been in fixed incomes like FD, bond fund, FMP, gold ETFs and physical gold for the last one year, trying to stay away from the stock market? What should they do with those asset classes at this point in time?

A: Gold is the most difficult and complex asset because it goes up for all kinds of reasons. It's not like a stock with an EPS or PE. The cost of production of gold is between USD 400-600, but the price could be anything. There is absolutely no correlation with the cost of mining of gold.

As far as gold is concerned, it could correct especially as the world is hoarding up dollars. Bond prices continue to rise, so money has been headed there. As far as gold is concerned, if you have some definitely trade, otherwise hang onto your gold. If it corrects another 20%, you might want to add back to some gold as well because probably we have not seen the worst.

When you know there is a big default and markets freeze all over the world, its time to get rid of your gold and jump into equities. As far as debt is concerned, it is a little easier as you want to reduce a bit of your holdings in debt on every correction.

If you don't have liquid savings, then you may want to sell some of your debt or get rid of your FDs, and start putting some money in equities in a slow basis. Every time, you see a 10% correction, put at least 30%.

CRUDE STORY

THE COMMODITY SELLOFF ESPECIALLY IN GOLD AND SILVER MAKE MANY TO RUN TEARS. THE SURPRISE IS THE NATURE OF THE MARKET AND WILL SURPRISE AGAIN AND EVERY TIME THE TABLE WILL TURN.....


A review of historical oil prices shows that oil displays wide price swings when markets suffer from scarcity or oversupply. The price cycle of crude oil ranges from a small duration to several years.

Major Events: Historical Oil Prices

From 1948 to 1970, oil prices remained stable at around $3 per barrel. A major development was the formation of OPEC in 1960; consisting of Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Venezuela.

·         Oil Crisis (1973-1978)

Oil prices quadrupled from $3 in 1972 to $12 in the later half of 1974. This was triggered by the Yom Kippur War, when Israel was attacked by Egypt and Syria. The US and some other Western countries supported Israel. Infuriated Arab nations imposed an embargo on these countries by curtailing oil production by 5 million barrels per day. The control on oil prices shifted from the US to the OPEC nations during the ‘Arab Oil Embargo.’

·         Oil Crisis (1979-1980)

In 1979, the Iranian revolution sent oil prices soaring. The country’s oil production plummeted drastically to 2.5 million barrels a day. The 1980 Iraqi invasion worsened the situation. The combined production of both the countries reduced to just one million barrels per day (from 6.5 million barrels in 1978). This lowered theglobal oil production by 10% and oil prices rocketed to $35 per barrel.

·         Oil Glut (1980-1986)

The energy crises of the 1970s slowed down the economic activity across the industrial nations. This resulted in oil conservation and overproduction, pulling down consumption and prices of crude oil drastically. The import of oil by the US reduced from 46.5% in 1977 to 28% in 1982-1983. Oil prices which had peaked to $35 in 1980 fell to $10 within six years.

·         Oil Spike (2003-2008)

Inflation-adjusted oil prices post-Gulf War remained below $25. However, oil prices began escalating in 2003 due to:

·         Dwindling petroleum reserves and ‘peak oil’ concerns,

·         Tensions in the Middle-East and

·         Oil-price speculation.

Oil price crossed $30 in 2003 and reached $60 in August 2005. Oil price reached a historic high of $147.30 in July, 2008 amidst global economic recession.

An analysis of historical oil prices exhibits that oil price determination is no longer solely dependant on the OPEC countries.

THANKS TO ECONOMY WATCH

FORGET 5000 !!!!!!

sunday, september 18, 2011

The No Growth-Inflation…..

..........The Reliance has good base at Rs 810-15 level but likely to test 767-73 level. The ONGC may float above 263 level. The Infy move from 52 week low level is now protected for now. The scrip may stay above 2285 level, TCS above 1014 and Wipro above 330-332 level. The best out performing stock in Nifty is M&M. The scrip likely to stay above 775 level even due to RBIs’rate hike impact. The HLL, the driver of FMCG has formed a base at 221-23 level. The markets take a sharp rise once the stock hits that level. During this week, markets will touch 5200 level or likely to cross. The Nifty has to stay above 4960 level.   

THE BLOOD BATH : The markets took a heavy beating sigle day fall after a long  time by the bears. The slaughter affect might have left the technical analysts amazed. We can predict the happening but the timing is crucial and critical. In my Sunday posting clearly mentioned the level. The bottom support will be at 4870-60 level for now .In case the Europe team doesn’t come with a solid proposal then the markets will trade below 4500 level. The RIL issue will spoil our markets growth for now. The tech team will save the index but Govt has to come out with encouraging policy decisions.At this juncture 2G scam is drawing and dragging all renowned name for good coverage.This will put road block on the rise. The Indian economy doing well is a fact but finds limited buyers in the market.

In case the policy decisions not favour or attacting the FII inflow to markets may drift lower and lower. Then the Nifty staying above 5000 is a gone case.At this juncture it is too early to announce like that but the circumstance are encouraging.

EMOTIONS RULE?????

I completely agree with Raamdevji that the market conditions are such that the investment shall find a through research on equities.
The equity markets rise across board on very few occations where the "new investor flock-SCAPE GOAT TEAM" join the stream at the fag end of the rise to grab quick bucks, get trapped and sell only when 10 or 20% value is left. The fact that the effordability of retail investor in a bull market last stage is at the mercy of the " fly by night" operator scrips which get 20% upper ceilings for consequent days. These stocks are widely talked or make the head lines. Then the common man/retail investor rise loans and invest for higher returns or take PF loans for investment get themselves burn to the gread. this rule is no exception to any investor who carry the emotional jumps to grab the opportunity despite the fact that he doesn't deserve the basic right to invest.
Now the basic right is nothing to do with other righths but hte capacity to hold for at least 5-7 years and having same surplus amount in the next year also.
Unless one undestands the basic principles of equity investment, people tend to loose and blame the market. The market is wise and balanced to every investor.
While investing in stocks, as a matter fact EMOTIONS RULE our decisions rather than a study. So persons ruled by emotions get drowned in the whirl wind stroms of market gyrations and book loss irrespective of the holding size, whether it be in day trading or in regular longterm investment.
Any way the rule is sipmle: BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH, rest is you judgement.
-------------------Very Good article
Bet on equity, but pick the right ones

EmailPrint..Our Special Correspondent, On Monday 19 September 2011, 2:52 AM
Mumbai, Sept. 18: Equities are in the doghouse right now ' and that's the best time to go stock picking, reckons Raamdeo Agrawal, managing director of Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd, which is one of the largest broking firms in the country.
Agrawal has an abiding faith in Indian equities, which he firmly believes will be one of the best-performing asset classes over the next 10-15 years.
But investors need to make the right bets when they go bottom fishing. Agrawal believes that investors should focus on specific companies rather than sectors even though several verticals have looked very attractive in the current meltdown in the markets.
"The current market is safe for investing. But the real pay-off will come from your ability to pick the right bunch of mispriced bets. Even though several sectors look interesting, it's all about picking the stocks of the right companies. The retail investor must bring his own competency to figure out how much a company will make in the next five or seven years and whether he is paying a price higher than that or significantly lower than that. That's the way I look at it," says Agrawal who along with his other colleagues have identified a checklist of 47 parameters on the basis of which Motilal Oswal picks its best bets.
Agrawal's comments come at a time the stock markets have shown volatility with key indices rising or buckling in response to a blizzard of local and international cues.
Since the start of this calendar year, the BSE Sensex has plummeted nearly 18 per cent from 20500 levels.
According to Agrawal, one outcome of this fall and the recent volatility is that the character of market and investing has changed with investors now more focused on index movements even as they have withdrawn from the equity markets.
"Earlier, it was more of an investing market where investors did not bother much about index movements. But now the whole talk is about where global markets or local markets are headed. Investing is not about markets, but finding businesses or companies who can make a lot of money and buying a small piece of it," he said, thereby indicating that investors should think long-term.
Agrawal adds that Indian equities will remain one of the best-performing asset classes over the next decade, and the arguments are far more compelling now that the markets have corrected sharply from their highs. "The lower the market goes, the better for investors," he avers.
This comes even as price-wise the markets have entered an "under-valuation zone". The price to earnings ratio (P/E) for the Sensex has eased from a multiple of 26 to 27 to a multiple of under 14 at present.
"The long-term average PE (for Sensex) has been 14.5. So, we have now entered a historical under-valuation zone and we have breached the average PE multiple. But are we close to the bottom? I cannot say that. However, if it tumbles to a PE multiple 10, we will have reached an absolute bottom," he said.
Investors have been spooked by the slump and are clinging to the sidelines, waiting for the storm to blow over. They are afraid to make a mistake and suffer big losses. But Agrawal believes that it is okay for an investor to make an occasional mistake in stock picking.
"In investing, you have to learn to pardon yourself for committing mistakes. Please do commit mistakes; an individual who commits more mistakes eventually becomes a sane investor," he said.
THANKS TO YAHOO & TELEGRAPH

Decoupled for now!!!!!

This article ratifies the views expressed in my previous
article. I mentioned the India strenth amidst of global
turmoil.The markets are weak but we are something
special. This is a clear India advantage.
----------------
Asia PE funds say region has decoupled from West

tweet0EmailPrint..Topics:StocksEconomy and
PolicyMutual Funds.On Tuesday 20 September 2011,
1:50 PM
By Stephen Aldred and Elzio Barreto
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Rising buyouts between
China and Japan, abundant leveraged debt in the
region and the depth of China's markets mean Asia-
Pacific private equity will continue to outperform the
Western model, leading Asia fund managers said on
Tuesday.
China, the world's second-largest economy, Indonesia
and India were expected to lead returns in the next
three years for private equity investors in the region,
buoyed by booming consumer demand, according to
a survey of fund managers at the SuperReturn forum
in Hong Kong.
China has been delivering returns for private equity of
25 percent to 30 percent the past years and should
experience similar growth in the next two to three
years, said John Zhao, chief executive of China's
Hony Capital.
"Asia is clearly decoupling from Western markets,
even in the private equity sector, and I for one am very
optimistic about the returns you're going to get out of
Asia," said Michael Kim, partner at Seoul-based MBK
Partners.
The greatest threat to private equity investing in the
region came from the wall of capital entering Asia
looking for opportunities, which could pressure returns
in coming years, the survey showed.
Still, despite the abundance of capital available for
investments in China and a slowdown in economic
growth in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai,
investment opportunities remained abundant in the
country's booming hinterlands, Zhao added.
"What we're very comfortable with is that we don't do
bad deals. The only question is how good the deal is,"
said Zhao. "China is restructuring, so if this sector is
not working, another sector will pop up."
Thanks to Yahoo

US-VISITS

THE HIGH PROFILE VISITS CAN STOP THE FALL?????????

19 Sep, 2011, 04.50PM IST, PTI
Pranab Mukherjee to seek US investments in infrastructure space
WASHINGTON/NEW DELHI: Led by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, and his three Cabinet colleagues, India will make an aggressive pitch to US industrialists to invest in the country's
infrastructure sector.
Mukherjee, who will be on a five-day visit to US from September 21, will address the 8th Annual India Investment Forum Meeting.
The theme of his address will be India's continuing growth story, a finance ministry statement said.
Mukherjee is expected to ask the US corporate to invest majorly in India's infrastructure sector, which needs more than a USD 1 trillion over the next five years.
Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma, Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde and Renewable Energy Minister Farooq Abdullah, accompanying the Finance Minister, will also
address the forum.
Besides, Karnataka Chief Minister D V Sadananda Gowda, accompanying the ministers, will seek investments for the state.
Tata group Chairman Ratan Tata, Reliance Industries Ltd Chairman Mukesh Ambani, SBI Chairman Pratip Chaudhuri, ICICI Bank CEO & MD Chanda Kochhar, Bharti Enterprises Chairman
Sunil Mittal, HDFC Ltd Chairman Deepak Parekh and Apollo Hospitals MD Preetha Reddy will represent the corporate sector at the forum.
The US CEOs who are likely to participate include Indra Nooyi (Pepsico), Vikram Pandit (Citi Bank), Dave Cote (Honeywell), Jamie Dimon (J P M Chase) and Ellen Kullman (DuPont).
The Meeting would also discuss the effects of increasing inflows of foreign investment into Indian markets, said Ranjana Khanna, deputy secretary general, FICCI USA.
Mukherjee, along with his counterparts from Brazil, China, Russia and South Africa, would discuss policy responses and explore the manner in which BRICS could coordinate in addressing
the evolving economic and financial situation in the various countries of the world.
The meeting will also discuss the reports which were commissioned by India on the role that BRICS could play in the global economy.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is also visiting US this week to participate in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) session. He will be making an appearance at the UN General
Assembly after a gap of three years.
THANKS TO ET


IT IS VERY LIKELY THTA THE STOCK SPECIFIC ACTION WILL RESUME FRO SOME TIME.

The No Growth-Inflation…..

The markets are on its up spring despite of the regular worries doomed by the inflation. The RBI once again increased the repo rate and reverse repo rate by 25 bps. The markets accepted and discounted the hike, continued its upward consolidated journey. The bottom building at 4900 is quite evident. The smart move from Govt not to sell ONGC at through away price put the bears on alert and the scrip regained its 275-280 level with much easy due to short covering and squeezing of bears at wrong foot.

The Obama is also trying to gain confidence of common man in US that his govt. is pro poor by putting Buffet Tax. The crave for power makes all gimmicks that can be made in the Wall Street or in the politics is common. The experts are expecting that the inflation can take a South ward move only after Jan-12 and that could be true that the markets may take a positive turn with pre-budget rally also. The view is long but evident. The “Euro” existence is now reeling the markets. The Greece default is on the cards. The markets are also not able to accept the fact that they can take a bet on the future of the European nations debt default. So the markets are “traversing of Zigzag path” is the order of the day. The connectivity with global markets with Asian markets is not fully integrated but the after shock waves are existing. The local issues are now driving the markets in Asian markets rather than the US and Europe issues.

The Reliance has good base at Rs 810-15 level but likely to test 767-73 level. The ONGC may float above 263 level. The Infy move from 52 week low level is now protected for now. The scrip may stay above 2285 level, TCS above 1014 and Wipro above 330-332 level. The best out performing stock in Nifty is M&M. The scrip likely to stay above 775 level even due to RBIs’rate hike impact. The HLL, the driver of FMCG has formed a base at 221-23 level. The markets take a sharp rise once the stock hits that level. During this week, markets will touch 5200 level or likely to cross. The Nifty has to stay above 4960 level.

How web entrepreneurs made money, thanks to Google

At 27, Amit Agarwal grew restless. A techie working in Bangalore, he wanted to live with his family in Agra. But what about the monthly pay cheque? Idea: a tech blog that will help him get freelance assignments. So in 2004, labnol.blogspot.com was born. 

The first post was the review of a new printer he had bought. And soon he was fielding questions from people who had the printer or any other gadgets. 

Agarwal didn't know it then but the blog would become his full-time profession. Seven years later, he is still writing the blog (now labnol.org), and no longer looking for freelancing. The blog with 4.5 million page views per month has him clocking in 14-hour workdays. The only difference: he works from home. "Back then, I didn't think or know that a blog could be my source of income," he confesses. His source of revenue: GoogleAdSense, the Google service that places contextual ads on blogs. The blog and Google stay his chief source of income, with 75% of the revenue coming from it. 

With little to no capital required, taking your business to the web is clearly the way forward. But decoding the web is not that easy. As yet another tech blogger, 27-yearold Amit Bhawani, found out. Starting as a personal blogger (amitbhawani.com now techadvices.com), the MBA graduate from Hyderabadhas 300 domain names registered under his companyDigital World Solutions with 40 sites and blogs operational, covering technology, health, education and automobiles. 

Bhawani started blogging as a 22-year-old in 2006 and soon realised that it's the only business where there's an assured 100% year-on-year growth. Last year he made Rs 1.2 crore from his blog with 70% of the revenue coming from Google AdSense.

THANKS TO ET.

TROUBLE FOR NOW ????

The markets across the globe took a severe beating. But in the last week our markets could bounce from 4700 level to 5100 level. The fall can be considered is from 5700 level. The DAX which is struggling to hold on the gains it made on the previous day. The same is the case with DOW and Nasdaq. This phenomenon is particular to these days but not to the history. The last one month scenario is not at all a consideration when we are talking about the LONG-TERM growth.

All the markets except the Nikkie are in positive zone despite of the turmoil’s they under went. The strength in the markets are not shaken by the Europe and US problems. The markets are apprehensive time and again about the recovery or growth prospects but they are not in bear grip. The bears are exhibiting their strength time and again when ever the opportunities arise. Their strength is well recognized in some sectors where the future is bleak. The Nifty is also traversing in similar lines as discussed above.

The third world countries of yester years are now the hub of growth opportunities, more safety heaven than the EU and US. The activity of patronage may exist for some time, until that inflection point, the FDI will get attracted in countries like India. The current situation in developing nations is the rising inflation which is eating away the growth made. To maintain a balance, attract more stable investments, the RBI and the Govt. are tying to take measures, may take some time. The food inflation now in double digit is causing concern for the govt. in power as they have to satisfy the common man. The aaum audmi khushi will offer KURSI.

The markets in India will get more support from FII as their exposure is increasing quarter on quarter. The mid caps will have good future after two years of consolidation. The telecom sector will see a better future than the turbulent one that exists amidst of spectrum allocation issues. The ADAG group stocks are the real barometer for the markets direction. The Reliance foray into broad band is so silent that the market is not able to digest. The LTE will see better future in India as the usage potential is more due to demographic advantage. The UID will boost the Governance patronage that propels the whole system.

The growth assurance can be taken from the studies conducted and targets set from BMW and Mercedes plans. The studies show that margins may fall by close to 6% due to tight liquidity in the system. These are contradictory to each other but in the time span on a longer scale both are correct. The policy changes at the Banking licenses to private sector will unleash a new area of banking and FII investment will follow. The same is the case with Insurance sector and retail. The huge investment opportunity for FIIs, those floods as inflow of funds into these sectors, waiting for more than two years.

The markets are now in the phase of consolidation. The bounce back of Reliance from 712 level to 812 odd level is a good sign for the bulls to celebrate. The sector rotation will take place in the next two to three months. The bargain hunter placed their bets in the market. The retail investors may take expose in October after analyzing the September results. The direction will be decided in November. The Nifty for now may face resistance at the current highs may slide to 4930-4887 levels and will resume the current uptrend. The ONGC FPO plan shall not become a show stopper.

THANKS TO ET FOR PROVIDING SUCH AN INTERESTING AND MUST READ ARTICLE.

Equity investment is an art as well as a science

Equity investment is an art as well as a science. The selection of an underlying is an art and selecting the right strategy to participate is a science. Clients often ask us: 'How do I participate in equities? Markets are near all-time high. Should I invest now or wait for the markets to correct? There is a lot of uncertainty in the markets', etc. 

My reply to them is that equity markets are always going to be uncertain, that there will always be volatility. But that is why equities give higher returns than other asset classes. Play smartly and take the benefit of volatility. 

The objective of every investor is to buy low and sell high or invest more when the markets are low and invest less when the markets are high. This often sounds simple but in reality it is practically impossible to time the market. To achieve the above objectives, I suggest the 'value averaging strategy', as it smartly plays out in different market conditions. 

Let us first understand what value averaging is. It was developed by former Harvard University professor Michael E Edleson. The value averaging investment plan is a powerful investment concept that provides considerable safety from market volatility, discipline and reasonable guarantee of returns. It is an averaging technique where the portfolio's balance increases in a defined way irrespective of the market movement. 

In a value averaging investment plan, the amount invested each month is not fixed, but varies with the fluctuations of the market. Investors have a target portfolio value that they desire over a certain period of time. With each passing month, the plan adjusts the next month's contribution as per the relative gain or fall of the portfolio value from the target portfolio value. When the market declines, the investor contributes more and when the market goes up, the investor contributes less. This way the anticipated return remains more or less constant for the investor. 

To check the superiority of this logic, we back-tested the value averaging concept in three different market cycles, ie, a falling market, a flat market and a rising market. We have considered a three-year analysis for each market cycle. We assumed 15% as the target return from equity and set the formula accordingly. Let's evaluate the investment results in different strategies: 

During the global crisis of 2008: For our analysis, we took the data for Nifty from December 31, 2007, when the Nifty was 6138. It fell all the way to 2524 on October 28, 2008 and come back to 6134 on December 31, 2010. So, there was in effect no returns from Nifty for three years. In the same time period, the value averaging concept (VAP) in Nifty generated an internal rate of return (IRR) of 25.34%, compared with the 0% CAGR return from a lump sum investment in Nifty and IRR of 23.86% from investments through a systematic investment plan (SIP). 

Falling market analysis (tech meltdown): For our analysis, we took data from January 31, 2000, when the Nifty was 1546 and fell all the way to 1041 as on January 31, 2003. Nifty lost 32% in the above period. If anybody would have employed the value averaging strategy for investment, the returns would have been -4.24% IRR as compared with -6.69% IRR through SIP and -12.33% CAGR in case of lump-sum investment.

Rising Market analysis (dream bull run): For our analysis, we took data from December 31, 2004, when the Nifty was 2008, to December 31, 2007, when it touched 6138, generating 195% absolute return, ie, 43.43% CAGR. But with the value averaging strategy (VAP), the IRR would have been 52.48%, and for SIP strategy, the IRR would have been 50.89%. In a constant rising market, the absolute returns from lump sum would look better. 

Conclusion: Value averaging as an investment strategy is superior to the systematic investment strategy as it combines the benefits of relative valuation due to market movements and a disciplined investment approach for averaging. In the current state of directionless market it makes sense to apply this investment strategy for allocation in equities. Just be patient and give more time to your investments. 

(The author is Group CEO, Alchemy).