Vulture Funds..PREY on...No Pity...!!!!

All you wanted to know about: Vulture Funds

RADHIKA MERWIN

All you wanted to know about: Vulture Funds

A weekly column that puts the fun into learning
Recently, the Sensex and Nifty went through some wild gyrations after Standard and Poor’s Ratings Services declared Argentina a debt defaulter. The country had failed to pay $539 million in interest due to its creditors, not because it couldn’t afford to pay them, but because a US court order barred Argentina from settling these dues unless it coughed up the $1.3 billion it owed to the so-called ‘vulture funds’.

What is it?
A vulture fund is a private equity or hedge fund that buys up bonds issued by companies, countries or individuals in deep financial trouble at beaten down market prices. They then try to make big gains by suing the debtor for a much larger sum than they originally paid for buying the bonds. That makes it clear how vulture funds got their name; they ‘prey’ on companies and issuers who are in distress because they’ve taken on too much debt.
In the case of Argentina, after the country defaulted on its debt of close to $100 billion in the 2001 crisis, many vulture funds swooped in to pick up the country’s bonds from the secondary markets for a song. These were mainly US hedge funds spearheaded by billionaire Paul Singer’s NML Capital.
The country’s financial situation only worsened and, unable to make interest payments, it asked lenders to take a ‘haircut’, that is, waive their dues and settle for part payment.
While Argentina managed to restructure more than 90 per cent of its debt between 2005 and 2010, a few vulture funds held out and refused to take a haircut. They sued Argentina in a US court demanding full payment for their bonds. The court upheld their demand and asked Argentina to pay the vulture funds in full.

Why is it important?
The global financial system has seen quite a few nations either defaulting on debt or tottering on the brink after the credit crisis. Thanks to vulture funds, Argentina has been declared in default a good five years after the crisis, for the second time in 13 years.
While vulture funds make up a small portion of the country’s total creditors, the US court order has put Argentina between a rock and a hard place. Unless they pay the vulture funds, they will be unable to pay others, thus continuing to default.
While talks are on between Argentina and the US to find a compromise, the risk for Argentina may nevertheless escalate, if other bondholders were to wake up and sue as well. Argentina may find it difficult to raise money on the international debt markets due to a steep premium on its borrowing costs.

Why should I care?
Yes, India isn’t the same as Argentina, but try telling that to foreign investors who lump all emerging markets under a huge risky asset class. Debt troubles in any developing nation usually cause global investors to peg up the ‘risk premium’ they assign to all emerging market investments. Events like Argentina’s default make investors nervous and trigger outflows from emerging economies. Foreign investors pulled out close to $820 million from Indian debt markets last week, and the rupee tumbled to as low as 61.7, as if in sympathy with Argentina.

Bottomline
Vulture funds may seem evil, but they do put the fear of god into defaulters. Given the problems that Indian banks face with large corporate defaulters, maybe what we need are a few vulture funds to balance the scales.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/all-you-wanted-to-know-about-vulture-funds/article6305110.ece?homepage=true

SELL on RISE @NIFTY-7668-80

The Nifty which fell by 300 points from TOP can see some bounce due to the USA strong closing on FRIDAY. The strength of markets will be tested on Monday as the negative news at home turf is more than the Global one. If Nifty fails to trade and close above 7620 is a very negative sign to bulls. Nifty fell from 7840 to 7540 level, Bank Nifty fell from 15555 to 14709 level. The Bulls already started un-winding, 15 lakh Nifty OI in the last two days. The BankNifty added OI.

The Bullish counters like Axis, BoB, PNB and ICICI are in the un-winding mode than the Bank Nifty.  The interesting scenario is that majors like ICICI fell from 1512 level to 1411, PNB fell from 980 level to 898 level, Bank Baroda fell from 92 level to 855 level, Axis from 408 to 269 level. The Relinfra fell from 780 level to 715, Relcap from 622 level to 558 level. The strong selling came in Reliance when it touched 1043 level after results but succumbed to selling pressure to 970 level. The story is no different to L&T, fell from 1698 to 1440, a results victim. These counters gave some good results but they are already discounted.

There is very likely that we may see some news regarding AMBUJA CEMENT.

The Rel Power may react to CERC ruling that RPOWER may lose the new pricing offered to other UMPP. IDBI under CBI scanner due to KFA fiasco, may see some selling.

The positive results of Auro-Pharma, ADANI may find some buying interest. But the short covering may be intensified only when Nifty trades above 7720. Above 2440-42, SBI may rally to 2540 level with-out much resistance, where as the only resistance at 2468-72 to be watched closely. This week markets may see some recovery but not sustainable.
................

Should Mukesh Ambani be unloved?

Ambani is under attack by the government of India, media, regulators such as Sebi & political parties such as Aam Aadmi party

Dev Chatterjee  |  Mumbai  

August 10, 2014 Last Updated at 19:12 IST

In a recent article "Unloved Billionaire", The Economist wrote about the paradox of why Mukesh Ambani, Chairman of India's most valuable company Reliance Industries, is so unloved in India. 

 

Ambani is under attack by the government of India, regulators such as the Sebi, media, political parties such as the Aam Aadmi party. And now, even the small shareholders are unhappy because they lost their wealth by 4% in the company's shares in the past five years. 

 

On Friday, market regulator Sebi fined Reliance of Rs 13 crore for violating disclosure norms.

 

As a keen observer of Ambani's progress in the past two decades, it's obvious to me why Ambani has lost the goodwill. The company is secretive, does not believe in transparency, and a bitter sibling war has destroyed the halo around the group. The fights with the oil ministry and the negative remarks by government auditor the Comptroller & Auditor General on its broadband licence are not helping the matters either. Many a time, journalists’ queries are either ignored or, when required, information is supplied in “off-record” briefings. 

 

Reliance has become an India-centric success story while its peers like Tata and Birla are now earning more than 50% of their revenues from overseas operations. Ambani’s plans to set up Special Economic Zones outside Mumbai never took off following agitation by locals over brazen land acquisition. Ambani had to beat a hasty retreat from a similar SEZ in Haryana, which the critics alleged, had become a real estate play.

 

But as far as business is concerned, no one can take the credit away from Ambani for thinking big. Ambani was instrumental in setting up not one but two world-class large oil refineries in Jamnagar, Gujarat. Ambani had the vision to set up retail chain across India and is now making money of it.

 

The 57-year-old billionaire is also investing a massive Rs 70,000 crore in the Indian wireless telephony where the Tata group has failed miserably. The telecom business, according to Ambani himself, will create 10,000 new  jobs. This is the second time Ambani is building a telecom empire after giving his earlier venture to his younger brother, Anil, as part of the family succession settlement. His ongoing $10 billion (Rs 60,000 crore) expansion in petrochemical business in Gujarat will add substantially to the economic growth.

 

India needs more entrepreneurs like Ambani who can take risk to set up new projects and create employment. Ambani may be unloved by many but as far as job creation and new projects are concerned, there is no doubt that he is number one. Reliance is loved, at least by new gen, young employees. If Ambani succeeds in creating new jobs, then no one who can stop him from earning goodwill from young India.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/should-mukesh-ambani-be-unloved-114081000514_1.html

.

BLOWING TRUMPET...SUCCESS TASTE...!!!

I MISSED MY NIGHT SLEEP (IN 1991-95, I USED TO STUDY THE HARD COPIES OF CAPITAL MARKETS AND DALAL STREET…UPTO 3 AM,ONE DAY UPTO 5 AM…., NOW  SIMILAR SLEEPLESS STUDY…, I NEVER STUDIED MY CLASS BOOKS LIKE THIS…) DUE TO A SERIOUS SEACH FOR TINY STOCKS THAT CAN FETCH 500-1000% RISE IN FUTURE. THE SEARCH AND RESEARCH IS ON………… THE STORY OF MULTIBAGGERS IS A EVER RISING NOVEL STORY IN STOCK MARKETS…ONLY THING WE NEED TO DO IS JUST TRUST WHAT YOU THOUGHT IS RIGHT AND BELIEVE IN WHAT YOU IDENTIFIED/STUDIED……..…….

A SATISFACTION BUILT DISAPPOINTMENT OF MISSING INDOCOUNT INDUSTRIES WHICH I IDENTIFIED AT 7-9 NOW AT 144 A 18 MONTH HOLDING PERIOD, A 1500-2000% RETURN IS A PHENOMENAL CASE TO “BLOW ONE’S OWN TRUMPET”.

AT A SIMILAR TIME FRAME IDENTIFIED MORARJEE TEXTILE AT SAME 7-8 RUPEES NOW AT 44. I IDENTIFIED PHARMA AT 3 NOW AT 35 A 10 TIMES RISE..NOT ENJOYED…

SIMILARLY FINDING AND  I ENJOYED 700% RISE IN KM SUGAR BOUGHT AT 1 AND 1.35, NO OTHE SUGAR STOCK GAVE SUCH PHENOMENAL RETURN. I DOUBLED MONEY IN RANA SUGARS.

I BOUGHT BIRLA ERICSSON AT 10-12, NOW AT 65 LEVELS, SUGGESTED ALL TELECOM OPTIC FIBRE CABLE COMPANIES, WHICH GAVE 300 TO 500% RISE, WITH SOME CLOSE FRIENDS, I EVEN FOUGHT FOR THEIR INVESTMENTS IN THESE STOCKS.

AS A MATTER OF FACT, THIS RALLY HAVE GIVEN LIFE TO MANY TINY STOCKS, DORMANT FOR YEARS. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE MANY STOCKS THAT ARE AT THE SAME PRICE OR EVEN LOWER THAN TWO YEARS AGO.

SO, JUST TURN AROUND STORY, LIKE ARVIND AT 44 FOUR YEARS AGO NOW AT 240, PARTICIPATED BUT NO GREAT WAITING….

……….

THE LESSON IS SO SIMPLE THAT FIND OUT…KEEP ON INVESTING……SIT TIGHT WITH OUT DISTURBING THE HOLDING AT LEAST FOR 5-10 TIMES RISE.

………

FOR DAY TRADING..ALWAYS LIVE IN THE CURRENT TREND.... 

EQUITIES...December sell-off..ON THE CARDS...????????

Warning! Be wary of a December sell-off

LOKESHWARRI SK/AARATI KRISHNAN

Global funds may cash out by year-end, preparing for the US to increase rates in the summer of 2015, says Geoff Lewis, Executive Director and Global Market Strategist, JP Morgan Asset Management
With the election and Budget behind us, global events such as Argentina’s debt default and the impending interest rate hike in the US are back on investors' radar. So we caught up with the forthright Geoff Lewis on his recent India trip to find out what is in store for global markets.
Lewis thinks India is in a Goldilocks situation and that equities, both from emerging markets and Europe, may outperform. But he also warns that bonds are best avoided.

 Is the global economy on the mend? What does that mean for investors?

 It has been quite a surprising first half of the year. Everybody expected US and global bond yields to move up. But they moved down. Year-to-date, the best performing asset class has been US REITs, followed by emerging market debt and commodities. If you asked anyone at the beginning of the year, they wouldn’t have expected this. So, the lesson from this is that investors should always be prepared for the unexpected; they should be diversified.
 If you talk of what has changed, we don’t think the economic prospects have changed very much.
The US economy is normalising and becoming healthier. Europe is restructuring and the Japanese economy is becoming better. If you put all that together, the world economy is on an improving trajectory. You won’t get that impression if you watch Bloomberg or CNBC or read the Financial Times. They’re still talking of the end of tapering, deflation and so on.
 It seems to us that the risks of a European collapse or US fiscal policy have been reduced. If you look at the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of all the leading economies, you find that they’re all getting much better.
One number can be misleading, but if all the PMIs are improving in tandem, that’s a strong signal.

Indians now have the option of investing in Asian, US or European stocks through mutual funds. So where would you put your money?

 The big change between 2014 and 2015 will be that Japan’s earnings may moderate, while Europe is expected to come up.
So far, you can’t see it in the data for European earnings. When the inflection point comes, we should see European stock markets perform better than the US market.
We are not by any means negative on the US. In the US, we still have moderate earnings growth, low interest rates, strong margins and an economy that’s more visibly growing than Europe and has less structural problems. The US equity market is not overvalued in my view.

Have global investors really changed their view on India because of politics?

 India had large outflows from its debt markets in line with other members of the Fragile Five. But the difference was that foreign participation in Indian debt markets was really low compared with the other markets, such as Taiwan.
There was a global risk-off. But if you notice, the money also came back pretty quickly. At the moment, I think it’s a Goldilocks situation, with $10 billion coming in last year and another $10 billion this year.
 The problem for many emerging markets (EMs) seems to be that it is either famine or feast. But India’s fundamentals now are better relative to China and relative to other EMs.
A lot of investors were telling us earlier, ‘we’d like to wait for the Budget and see if there are outflows.’ But my view is that the portfolio inflows into India tend to be persistent. That suggests that they’re looking at India as a long-term investment opportunity. This also shows they’re probably not looking at India as a manufacturing base for exports but as a good domestic story.
When large foreign investors look at EMs, they’re looking for scalability. A large domestic consumer market provides that; India, Indonesia, China, Brazil and Russia provide that and not really anybody else.
A large pension fund in the US cannot deploy its money in, say, the Philippines. It is looking for a large economy to absorb that money. 
Are foreign investors in Indian bonds short-term oriented compared with equity investors? That is the impression we got from outflows in 2013.
Yes and no. A lot of retail money has gone into emerging market debt mutual funds and ETFs. That is where the selling pressure came from. Retail investors in those funds tend to panic.
The institutional investors did not trigger the panic. Having said that, the Indian (bond) market appears fully valued. As we approach the first hike in interest rates in the US, there will be panic among investors.
Emerging market debt will prove to be a crowded space. You don’t want to be the last one left in the party.

So what will happen when US interest rates move up? Will we see another exodus from emerging markets?

It depends on how the rates are raised. If the US economy grows moderately, unemployment comes down gradually and the Fed raises on schedule, then everyone will be prepared and that is ok. If emerging market earnings also pick up, the positives will outweigh the gradual rate increase.
If rate increases happen with unemployment and wages increasing, inflation rising and investors think the Fed has left it too late, then there will be a global risk-off again. Money will move out of debt and equity and it will be painful for everybody.
My personal opinion is that nobody knows what will happen once interest rates start rising.
It is a watershed event. We have had seven years of easy monetary policy. This marks the end of that unconventional monetary policy in the US and elsewhere.

Will emerging market currencies be affected?

Financial markets tend to anticipate any event three to six months before it happens. And the weakness can continue for three months after that.
There will be a temporary sell-off in the equity market. It does not signal the end of the rally. They are hiking interest rates because economies are stronger and corporate profits are good. That is good for equities.
From January or February next year, the market will start factoring in the rate hike.
Many fund managers close their books in November or December. So the danger period is the closing months of this year and not opening months of next year. That said, there is very little value left in fixed income anywhere.
So you need to have quite a lot of cash instead of fixed income.
If there is a big correction in emerging markets, you can deploy some of that cash.
Gold technically looks as if it is due for a rebound. But it is a poor inflation hedge in the long run. As a portfolio diversifier, you can have 10 per cent in gold. Once interest rates start rising in real terms, it has normally been negative for gold.
Income is still growing strongly in India and China, where the gold demand does not go away.
Have you factored a weak monsoon into assessing India’s growth?
It is negative, but not a disaster.
A really bad monsoon, like 1992, does not seem likely. If you look back at data since 1848, El Ninos or the Southern oscillators have caused a poor monsoon only 50 per cent of the time. Most foreign investors would look at this as a short-term concern.

What’s your view of emerging markets as an investment?

Emerging markets had a very good recovery post-Lehman crisis, then they sort of rested on their laurels. There was really excessive credit growth in places such as Turkey.
Then we saw political risk play out in Thailand, Turkey, Brazil. But we have since seen the situation improve.
Current account deficits have improved across the board. Many of them have raised interest rates; here, India was much ahead of the others.
 We have a very simple view of emerging markets. We think the story about EMs decoupling is basically nonsense. They haven’t decoupled from the global economy in any way.
This is clear from the fact that exports and industrial production for EMs track each other very closely. The last two years have been the worst period for EM exports since 1997.
As the European economy contracted, this hit EMs really hard. Thus, EM earnings have been falling.
So we take the simple view that if Europe picks up, EM exports will pick up and, therefore, their economies, too, will follow suit.  
(This article was published on August 3, 2014)

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/features/investment-world/warning-be-wary-of-a-december-selloff/article6277421.ece?homepage=true

STOCKS RISE GLOBALLY.....!!!!!!!!

It’s a global bull party!

LOKESHWARRI SK

July 24, 2014:  

The bulls are partying hard not just in India but in many other countries as well. Even as the Sensex has scaled the astounding height of 26,000, benchmarks in countries including Argentina, Canada, Germany, USA, UK and Pakistan are also perched close to their life-time highs.

This surge has made the market capitalisation of all bourses swell. According to the World Federation of Exchanges, the largest stock exchange, the New York Stock Exchange, has seen its market capitalisation increase from $17 trillion in January this year to $19.1 trillion towards the end of June. That the exchange has been able to grow at such a searing pace despite a very high base is a proof of the strength in the ongoing rally. The market cap of all the American exchanges towards the end of June — both North and South American exchanges — is 22 per cent higher than last year.

This may be impressive but the exchanges in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have managed to trump their American counterparts with 26 per cent year-on-year increase in market cap. The largest bourse in this segment, the Euronext with market cap of $3.8 trillion, recorded a strong 31 per cent growth. The overall market cap growth in Asia Pacific zone was relatively sedate at 15.9 per cent. Gains were depressed by the leader, the Tokyo stock exchange that has market cap of $4.6 trillion, growing at a slow 14.9 per cent. With the fast paced rally in Japanese markets already done with in 2013, this market has been a relative underperformer.

The Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange with market caps of around $1.5 trillion were out-performers in this category with gains of 39 per cent and 40 per cent increase in market cap.

While Indian bourses aren’t in the global league on market cap, the BSE tops the list when measured on the number of listed companies with 5,406 listed stocks towards the end of June. The TMX, the Canadian stock exchange comes next with 3,805 stocks. The NSE with 1,695 stocks features at the ninth position.

Indian investors however do not appear as enamoured by Exchange Traded Funds with less than 40 ETF listings. Exchanges in developed markets such as NYSE and Deutsche Borse have the maximum number of listed ETFs listed at 1,463 and 1,029 respectively. They are followed by Swiss Exchange and Euronext.

Indian exchanges do not fare that badly in bond listings. The National Stock Exchange has 6,191 bonds listed on it. This compares not too badly with the exchange that tops the list — Luxembourg Stock Exchange with 26,093 bond listings.

(This article was published on July 24, 2014)

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/its-a-global-bull-

party/article6245897.ece?homepage=true

RAIN..NO RAIN..HOW GAIN...??????????

Why the monsoon numbers hide reality

Because the ecology of various regions differs, it is silly to club them all under one countrywide average number

Nitin Sethi  |  New Delhi  

July 22, 2014 Last Updated at 08:10 IST

A whopping three-fourth of the country’s geographic area is right now facing a rainfall deficit severe enough to warrant crisis management. The Indian Meteorological Department’s data shows that 74% of India has so far recorded monsoon rainfall much below its normal levels.

Of the 36 rainfall divisions that the IMD divides the country in, 25 are reeling from rains much below what is considered normal for the region. As of yesterday 22 of the 25 have recorded rainfall dipping by more than 40% below the normal for the specific belts. 

Even by the lax Indian government definition, less than 20% rain means a meteorological drought (earlier it used to be triggered on official records by a 10% dip in rainfall).  

Yet the IMD figure of 31% country-wide area-weighted average figure for the entire monsoon season or a 15-16% deficiency in the last week’s rainfall country-wide area-weighted data is being deployed to suggest that the monsoon is not all that bad and its only getting better when one compares to the previous week.  

Let’s not get fooled by the averages. Farmers who depend upon monsoon to water their fields do not live by averages, they have to survive the extremes and the variation in the rains through the season. For a farmer, how the rain is spread over the monsoon period is critical. A dry sowing period followed by a huge downpour at a later stage of plant growth can be cataclysmic. For an analyst keeping sight of only the average rainfall it will only show a near ‘normal’ rosy picture of rain catching up finally. 

The pattern of rain that is most advantageous also differs from crop to crop, in fact, also from seed variety to seed variety. The availability of hardy short-duration varieties that shall survive low rainfall levels but give relatively lower productivity are a safer bet for a farmer in a bad monsoon. The farmer has a short time-gap and the increasing unpredictability of rainfall patterns to make these calls. This is where the government and the IMD reports are meant to come in handy. To have the right seed available and to have it in time is critical. To keep the fields ready to start sowing operations.

 

Northern Limit of Monsoon

 To understand the complexity of decision-making a farmer faces, one has to only read the regional Agromet advisories that the government puts out periodically. For any average city-dweller in India who only has to deal with the question of whether the city roads will be clogged with overflowing sewage or not, it can send the head spinning. 

 It is true, the monsoon is catching up in parts, the IMD raw-data shows. But, for a real picture of where it is and where it is not going to be enough, one only needs to survey the regional papers that reflect a more district-level variation of the hinterland.

 To reassert the point on getting lost in averages: normal monsoon in the evergreen ecological belts of Manipur, Mizoram, is 686.6 .4 mm for the season. For the drylands of Saurashtra, it is merely 213.1 mm for the same period. The ecology of the regions differs. Therefore, what the people grow and how they grow differs. It is silly, by any logic, mathematical interpretation or ecological sense, to club them all under one countrywide average number when reviewing how they shall fare through a year of climate and weather patterns. 

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/why-the-monsoon-numbers-hide-reality-114072100869_1.html

------------------------

MY SERIOUS CONCERN IS ABOUT THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONEY IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO FROM STOCKS THAT CAN RARELY OFFER LITTLE HEAD ROOM DUE TO WORRISOME EXTERNAL FACTORS AND FAILURE OF MONSOON FOR NOW...

THE MARKETS ARE SHIFTING GEARS TO SAFE ZONES....IN FUTURE THE INVESTMENTS WILL GO TO GOLD & SILVER, FOR NOW PLS WAIT FOR SOME MONTHS, TILL OCTOBER. I THINK THE YEARLY LOW CUTS WILL BE THE ORDER OF PLAY IN THE STOCK MARKETS. THE TELECOM, IT, INSURANCE AND JEWELRY STOCKS CAN SEE SOME SUPPORT BUT REST OF THE UNIVERSE WILL DRIFT LIKE LAND SLIDES. .....A FREE FALL AND MAY WILL COME WITH EXCUSES AND SOME COME WITH LONGTERM STORY.

PHENOMENAL RISE&HIGHs but A Denial for NOW….!!!

PHENOMENAL RISE&HIGHs but A Denial for NOW….

The Indian markets have performed stupendously, like a race against all ODDs and against all emerging markets. We are the best performing Indices YTD or for the quarter. The Rise is so phenomenal that no-body expected but few could CASH the opportunity. Now many new entrants are making inquiries and many more are looking as a decent opportunity to make HUGE money to meet their DREAMS.

The fact is that, since January-14, Nifty rose by 20%, Mid-Caps by 30% and Small caps by 55%, some Individual stocks rose by 400-700% from their LOWs. The hype generated now is due to change in the Government, a market friendly team at the top. But the fact is that No-body could SELL the National property via LIBERALIZATION for no reason, nor for a simple cause. The National growth based on immediate requirements and will be judged by prioritising/striking a right balance between “NECESSITY & COMMERCIALIZATION”. The Future is GOOD as huge investments will take place and the results will come in due course of time.

As far as the Stock Markets rise is concerned, a dead cheap stocks are at a historic low was one of the major reasons for FIIs relentless investments. The Global markets are also encouraging and FREE Supply/HIGH Liquidity is driving the markets for NOW. Very few are working on the REAL worth for the paper but relying on the PROJECTIONS. The Nifty is POISED for touching 9000+ as experts are working on the next 3-year EARNINGS and P/E that could safely take us above the above said number. I am not pessimistic but play a realistic role for valuing the Available Opportunity. The main reason for Nifty may seek SOUTHWARD JOURNEY because of looming DROUGHT, Poor Investments made by the CORPORATES in the Preceding/Previous 2-3 years, so NO earnings Surprise by the top companies.

So, the scenario is GLOOM in the Short-term, however the POLICY push can give some bounce but for the next ONE year will be very challenging. The Nifty stocks are moving up but the UN-Winding is a concern. The rise from here may not be that much sharp or serious, from here 2-Ups and 4-5 Downs. Because the FUTURE is promising, on any DEEP cut/ steep fall BULLs take charge to make a comeback to take away the Retail Investors most of the STOP-LOSSES.

THE BLOOM and GLOOM story…..THE MOMENTUM IS HIGH….

THE NIFTY MAY TOUCH 8785-8850 RANGE; BUT VERY LIKELY, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 7000, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 6600-6400 RANGE

THE BANK-NIFTY MAY TOUCH 20100-22000 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 12500-800, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 10100-10300 RANGE

THE RELIANCE MAY TOUCH 1450-1550 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 801-811, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 759-736 RANGE

THE ONGC MAY TOUCH 620-650 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 311-321, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 270 RANGE

THE SBI MAY TOUCH 3850-3950 RANGE, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 1920-1950, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 1450-1430 RANGE

THE ICICI MAY TOUCH 2130-2080 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 1180-1220, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 970-950 RANGE

THE RELCAPITAL MAY TOUCH 950-1050 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 440-415, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 330 RANGE

THE RELINFRA MAY TOUCH 1080-1150 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 520-540, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 440 RANGE

WE CAN EXTEND AND READ MORE NUMBERS… BUT THE DENIAL IS RIDING HIGH EVEN IN MY MIND…

PLS DON’T BUY NOW UNTIL NIFTY TOUCHES 7250-80 RANGE, BUT THE ACTUAL BUYING IN QUALITY STOCKS SHALL EMERGE FROM 7000 ONLY. THOSE WHO ARE COMPULSIVE, SHALL TAKE A STOPLOSS ROUTE RATHER THAN HOLDING FOR LONGER…THW WAIT MAY BE 3 YEARS…!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BUDGET -BETTER GAINS ---mid-cap companies...!!!

PLS READ MY EARLIER POSTING ON BUDGET DAY MORNING..I SUGGESTED THE LIKELY BUDGET PROPOSAL...THEY REFLECTED...!!!

NOW BASED ON THE BUDGET, THE MOST BENEFICIAL COMPANIES WERE IDENTIFIED BY ET..

For select mid-cap companies, proposals on both direct and indirect taxes will be a booster. Higher income tax exemption limits will boost savings and, in turn, spending by consumers — a much-needed trigger at a time when there is a demand slowdown. 

Mid-cap companies in sectors spanning banking, cement, footwear, infrastructure, irrigation, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, restaurants, retail chains and tourism will benefit from FY 15 Budget proposals in the medium- .. 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stocks-in-news/mid-cap-companies-to-benefit-from-budget-proposals-top-30-stocks/articleshow/38195977.cms

BAMMIDI-DEEP-MONDAY-14-07-2014

The bounce is very likely on the cards not for the BUDGET positives but due to the OVERSOLD ZONE coupled with good news of IIP numbers and US & EUROPE greener closing...!!! 

The overall BUDGET is good for the economy and for the markets in the Medium term to Long-term but these gyrations are due to Unwinding of Leveraged positions and offloading some of the High beta counters by the HNIs and some fund houses…

The Nifty lost nearly 400 points from the Highs, 7808 to 7447 but if we consider the F&O series, from the opening it lost nearly 65 points only. The Counters like Zee up by-8, Sun Pharma up by- 75+, RANBAXY up by 58+, TATA MOTORS - up by 14+, MARUTI- up by 65+, IRB up by 17+, INFY up by 108+, IDFC up by 18+, HLL up by 19+, HDFC up by 23+ and DrReddy up by 155+ Adani ports, Bharat Forge and many more....

The strength of the markets is intact as the SECTOR rotation has become the priority of the DAY/WEEK. The IT counters made a decent come back and the Pharma has extended their support apart from the FMCG (Mainly positive due to GST implementation by Dec-14).

The FDI hike to 49% in Insurance sector is good news and the long-term is very promising to this sector. The scrips like Reliance Capital, ICICI, SBI and HDFC likely to get re-rated. The other banking stocks into Insurance may see bottom support.

The Broad band HIGHWAY and low power consuming LED lights can offer better returns in the long-term. The Infra opportunity is only an opportunity at least for next 6- months as many issues need to be addressed.

The Global news will dictate the next week, mostly favourable news is building. The improvement in the rain fall scenario and the economic growth based on the declared IIP numbers. The Nifty will be in trading range of 7350-7650 for some time. The quarterly results will influence the Nifty and the counters as well but will stay above 7280 level. Any move below this support level shall be taken seriously and avoid further buying for short-term gains.

The Nifty has good support at 7445, 7380 and at 7350 level for now. The bounce could take us to 7559 and 7660-80 level without any serious resistance from the BEARS. The real test will come into force when NIFTY trades above 7650 level and Reliance above 1030 level. The banks charts got their structure OUT of SHAPE, any up move can be good chance to off-load unless there is very favourable news is announced.

The ICICI is positive only when it breaches 1449 and stays above 1426-29 level, SBI has good potential above 2640, HDFC has more space above 1017-22 level. Relcapital consolidates around 524-594 range for some time before it take a leap and is good above 608 after consolidation. The Rel-Infra has tremendous potential going forward but the consolidation around 685-776 is on the cards. The counters of ADAG are high beta counters and swing is high/volatile.

The Reliance is in midst of many controversies be it in World Cup FOOT-BALL tickets, D-6 gas arbitration and retail business profitability prospects and many… The ONGC is good above 406-08 for 430 targets and Reliance can touch 1022-26 range. The seriously beaten down counters like PFC, BOI, CanBk, BoB, PNB, SBI, Adani, L&T and United Spirits can offer decent returns in this week.

FM-JAITLEY-Budget 2014-15 Highlights

I HAVE POSTED MORNING "LIKELY BUDGET"...

THAT REFLECTED IN THE UNION BUDGET....PLS VERIFY..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

...............................

ECONOMY » BUDGET

Union Budget 2014-15 Highlights

July 10, 2014:  

Following are the highlights of the Union Budget 2014-15 presented by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in Parliament on July 10, 2014

Income-tax exemption limit raised by Rs. 50,000 to Rs. 2.5 lakh and for senior citizens to Rs. 3 lakh

Exemption limit for investment in financial instruments under 80C raised to Rs. 1.5 lakh from Rs. 1 lakh.

Investment limit in PPF raised to Rs. 1.5 lakh from Rs. 1 lakh

Deduction limit on interest on loan for self-occupied house raised to Rs. 2 lakh from Rs. 1.5 lakh.

Committee to look into all fresh tax demands for indirect transfer of assets in wake of retrospective tax amendments of 2012

Fiscal deficit target retained at 4.1% of GDP for current fiscal and 3.6% in FY 16

 Rs. 150 crore allocated for increasing safety of women in large cities

LCD, LED TV become cheaper

Cigarettes, pan masala, tobacco, aerated drinks become costlier

5 IIMs to be opened in HP, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha and Rajasthan

5 more IITs in Jammu, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.

4 more AIIMS like institutions to come up in AP, West Bengal, Vidarbha in Maharashtra and Poorvanchal in UP

Govt proposes to launch Digital India’ programme to ensure broad band connectivity at village level

National Rural Internet and Technology Mission for services in villages and schools, training in IT skills proposed

 Rs. 100 cr scheme to support about 600 new and existing Community Radio Stations

 Rs. 100 cr for metro projects in Lucknow and Ahmedabad

Govt expects Rs. 9.77 lakh crore revenue crore from taxes

Govt’s plan expenditure pegged at Rs. 5.75 lakh crore and non-Plan at Rs. 12.19 lakh crore.

 Rs. 2,037 crore set aside for Integrated Ganga Conservation Mission called ‘Namami Gange’

Kisan Vikas Patra to be reintroduced, National Savings Certificate with insurance cover to be launched

FDI limit to be hiked to 49% pc in defence, insurance

Disinvestment target fixed at Rs. 58,425 crore

Gross borrowings pegged at Rs. 6 lakh crore

Contours of GST to be finalised this fiscal; Govt to look into DTC proposal.

‘Pandit Madan Mohan Malviya New Teachers Training Programme’ launched with initial sum of Rs.500 crore

Govt provides Rs. 500 crore for rehabilitation of displaced Kashmiri migrants

Set aside Rs. 11,200 crore for PSU banks capitalisation

Govt in favour of consolidation of PSU banks

Govt considering giving greater autonomy to PSU banks while making them accountable

 Rs. 7,060 crore for setting up 100 Smart Cities

A project on the river Ganga called ‘Jal Marg Vikas’ for inland waterways between Allahabad and Haldia; Rs. 4,200 crore set aside for the purpose.

Govt proposes Ultra Modern Super Critical Coal Based Thermal Power Technology

Expenditure management commission to be setup; will look into food and fertilizer subsides

Impasse in coal sector will be resolved; coal will be provided to power plants already commissioned or to be commissioned by March 2015

Long term capial gains tax for mutual funds doubled to 20%; lock-in period increased to 3 years

 Rs. 4,000 cr set aside to increase flow of cheaper credit for affordable housing to the urban poor/EWS/LIG segment.

EPFO to launch the ‘Uniform Account Number’ service to facilitate portability of Provident Fund accounts

Mandatory wage ceiling of subscription to EPS (Employee Pension Scheme) raised from Rs. 6,500 toRs. 15,000

Minimum pension increased to Rs. 1,000 per month