Illegal trade: ex-Tata Finance MD barred from market

OUR BUREAU


http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/illegal-trade-extata-finance-md-barred-from-market/article6501050.ece?homepage=true

WORLD Growth worries NOW A STORY TO SCRIPT@ ALL TIME Highs...!!!

Growth worries slam stocks, oil, emerging markets

Investors have scrambled to reduce big bets in stocks and other risky assets after reaping big gains from a rally in major world equity markets that has only seen brief interruptions in the past three years

Reuters  |  New York  

October 11, 2014 Last Updated at 00:05 IST

An index of global equities fell to a seven-month low and oilslumped to a four-year low on Friday as worries about weak worldwide economic growth continued to take a toll on investor confidence.

Most major markets declined about one per cent on Friday, though the US benchmark S&P 500 index was slightly higher in early afternoon trading, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq saw the biggest losses on Wall Street.

Investors have scrambled to reduce big bets in stocks and other risky assets after reaping big gains from a rally in major world equity markets that has only seen brief interruptions in the past three years.

Assets tied to expectations for improved growth have been hit by a recent raft of weak indicators from Europe and China at a time when other big economies, including Japan and Brazil, face their own hardships and as the US Federal Reserve is expected to reduce monetary accommodation in the coming months.

"In a vacuum of policy response, investors are selling first and asking questions later," said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Chicago-based Northern Trust Asset Management, which has about $924 billion in assets under management.

"It smells like there is a high degree of involvement from systematic traders, rather than fundamental traders. The magnitude of the move has been disproportionate to the change in the fundamentals," he said.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 47.59 points, or 0.29 percent, to 16,706.84, the S&P 500 gained 1.19 points, or 0.06 per cent, to 1,929.4, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 31.28 points, or 0.71 per cent, to 4,347.06.

In a sign of increased volatility, the CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, the market's favoured gauge ofWall Street anxiety, touched a high of 22.06 on Friday, its highest intra-day level since December 2012, as more investors paid up for protection against further declines.

Concerns about global growth have hit oil prices hard, though they pared losses in midday trading. Brent crude oil fell to $89.79 a barrel, after touching its lowest level since December 2010 at $88.11. US November crude was flat at $85.72.

The risk aversion has boosted buying in safe-haven government debt. Lipper data shows US-based taxable bond funds attracted $12.7 billion in inflows for the week ended Wednesday, a one-week record, while US equity funds saw $6.7 billion in outflows, with most coming from exchange-traded funds.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.307 per cent on Friday, the lowest level since June. The 30-year Treasury bond was up 4/32 in price to yield 2.3124 per cent, the lowest level since June 2013.

The MSCI all-country world index was down 0.9 per cent after hitting its lowest level since March, while the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index ended down more than 1 per cent.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.31 per cent at 85.788. Against the euro, the dollar was up 0.45 per cent at $1.2633. The dollar traded flat against the yen at 107.84 yen.

Though it was still trading near four-year highs, the dollar index was on track to end a record-long rally with its first weekly fall in three months.

The Federal Reserve, later this month, is set to wind down the asset purchase programme that has been credited with boosting markets over the past two years. Many observers doubt the recent stimulus measures unveiled by the European Central Bank will make up for the Fed program.

A string of dismal data from Germany and other large euro zone economies in recent weeks has fed anxiety over a possible recession in the region, while the jury is still out on the ECB's proposed policy response.

Some investors have been speculating that the ECB will be forced to launch a sovereign bond-buying program, styled on the Fed's quantitative easing.

China's shares ended down on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of September economic data due next week.

Economists expect the economy to have grown at its weakest pace in more than five years, according to a Reuters poll.

Euro zone bond yields bounced off record lows after top Federal Reserve officials hinted at an interest rate rise in the middle of next year, reversing some bets for a longer period of near-zero rates.

NIFTY OUTLOOK GLOOM FOR NOW! BUT VERY BRIGHT FOR FUTURE...!!!

Sunday, 20 July 2014

AN ADVANCE PREDICTION...NIFTY OUTLOOK

PHENOMENAL RISE&HIGHs but A Denial for NOW….

The Indian markets have performed stupendously, like a race against all ODDs and against all emerging markets. We are the best performing Indices YTD or for the quarter. The Rise is so phenomenal that no-body expected but few could CASH the opportunity. Now many new entrants are making inquiries and many more are looking as a decent opportunity to make HUGE money to meet their DREAMS.

The fact is that, since January-14, Nifty rose by 20%, Mid-Caps by 30% and Small caps by 55%, some Individual stocks rose by 400-700% from their LOWs. The hype generated now is due to change in the Government, a market friendly team at the top. But the fact is that No-body could SELL the National property via LIBERALIZATION for no reason, nor for a simple cause. The National growth based on immediate requirements and will be judged by prioritising/striking a right balance between “NECESSITY & COMMERCIALIZATION”. The Future is GOOD as huge investments will take place and the results will come in due course of time.

As far as the Stock Markets rise is concerned, a dead cheap stocks are at a historic low was one of the major reasons for FIIs relentless investments. The Global markets are also encouraging and FREE Supply/HIGH Liquidity is driving the markets for NOW. Very few are working on the REAL worth for the paper but relying on the PROJECTIONS. The Nifty is POISED for touching 9000+ as experts are working on the next 3-year EARNINGS and P/E that could safely take us above the above said number. I am not pessimistic but play a realistic role for valuing the Available Opportunity. The main reason for Nifty may seek SOUTHWARD JOURNEY because of looming DROUGHT, Poor Investments made by the CORPORATES in the Preceding/Previous 2-3 years, so NO earnings Surprise by the top companies.

So, the scenario is GLOOM in the Short-term, however the POLICY push can give some bounce but for the next ONE year will be very challenging. The Nifty stocks are moving up but the UN-Winding is a concern. The rise from here may not be that much sharp or serious, from here 2-Ups and 4-5 Downs. Because the FUTURE is promising, on any DEEP cut/ steep fall BULLs take charge to make a comeback to take away the Retail Investors most of the STOP-LOSSES.

THE BLOOM and GLOOM story…..THE MOMENTUM IS HIGH….

THE NIFTY MAY TOUCH 8785-8850 RANGE; BUT VERY LIKELY, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 7000, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 6600-6400 RANGE

THE BANK-NIFTY MAY TOUCH 20100-22000 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 12500-800, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 10100-10300 RANGE

THE RELIANCE MAY TOUCH 1450-1550 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 801-811, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 759-736 RANGE

THE ONGC MAY TOUCH 620-650 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 311-321, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 270 RANGE

THE SBI MAY TOUCH 3850-3950 RANGE, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 1920-1950, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 1450-1430 RANGE

THE ICICI MAY TOUCH 2130-2080 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 1180-1220, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 970-950 RANGE

THE RELCAPITAL MAY TOUCH 950-1050 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 440-415, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 330 RANGE

THE RELINFRA MAY TOUCH 1080-1150 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 520-540, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 440 RANGE

WE CAN EXTEND AND READ MORE NUMBERS… BUT THE DENIAL IS RIDING HIGH EVEN IN MY MIND…

PLS DON’T BUY NOW UNTIL NIFTY TOUCHES 7250-80 RANGE, BUT THE ACTUAL BUYING IN QUALITY STOCKS SHALL EMERGE FROM 7000 ONLY. THOSE WHO ARE COMPULSIVE, SHALL TAKE A STOPLOSS ROUTE RATHER THAN HOLDING FOR LONGER…THW WAIT MAY BE 3 YEARS…!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A boon for Zinc....!!!

Mine closures – a boon for zinc

NAVEEN MATHUR

September 23, 2014:  

Zinc is used principally for galvanising iron and more than 50 per cent of metallic zinc goes into galvanising steel.

Zinc is the primary metal used in making American pennies and rising prices of this bluish-white metal this year have forced the US Mint to reduce manufacturing costs to offset higher prices.

Zinc prices have soared to three-year highs in 2014 on intensifying deficit in the global market as one of the biggest mines, Century open pit in Australia, is due for closure next year and the delayed start of its Dugald River project. MMG’s Century mine is expected to run dry in 2015, removing about 5 per cent of global supply.

Several large, aging mines are also scheduled to close next year as miners need higher prices to justify the cost of finding and developing new sources of metal. Miners may not produce enough zinc to meet the needs of steel companies and coin-makers until 2018. Owing to this, zinc production is expected to fall short of demand this year for the first time since 2007.

According to the Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group, zinc demand is up 7.7 per cent globally in the first six months of this year to 6.8 million tonnes. As a result, users are drawing on stockpiles of the metal to make up for production shortfalls.

Supplies of the metal in LME-licensed warehouses fell to a three-and-a half- year-low in July, and are down 15 per cent this year. The warehouses contain enough zinc to meet 19 days of demand, down from 24 days at the start of the year.

Chinese factor

Moreover, China’s MMG Ltd, owner of the world’s third-biggest zinc mine, said the global deficit in the metal had increased faster than expected, spurred partly by demand growth in China to rust-proof steel for cars. Chinese demand had picked up as companies sought galvanising technology, following a push by the International Zinc Association to tout the benefits of coating steel with zinc to prevent rust.

As a result of this, Chinese imports of refined zinc have jumped by 39.3 per cent through July, given the solid underlying demand growth, up about 7 per cent in 2014, boosted by strong auto production (+9.4 per cent year to date), rising content of galvanised steel in cars to prevent rust.

After a surplus of six years, supplies of the metal would be in deficit this year, coinciding with world major economies struggling for a breakout from recession, propelled by forecasts of annual demand growth of five-six per cent.

The Zinc study group has estimated that demand for zinc exceeded output by 248,000 tonnes in 2014 through July’14, compared with a 15,000-tonne production surplus in the same period a year earlier.

Prices to rise

Strong demand growth at a time when a number of big mines are approaching the end of their lives will lead to increase in physical deficit and a rundown in stocks at registered LME and Shanghai warehouses, thereby boosting prices further.

For the coming months, prices will continue to surge as some of the world’s largest zinc mines run dry just amidst spurt in demand.

In addition, MMG Ltd, which owns Century, had planned to open a new mine in Australia next year, but it’s being delayed back to late 2016 due to technical issues. This will fuel supply concerns.

However, higher shipments from China, the world's top consumer and producer of refined zinc, in the fourth quarter as tight credit crimps domestic demand at a time of increased imports to LME warehouses in Asia could cap LME zinc prices, which gained around eight per cent this year.

LME Zinc (CMP: $2,222) prices can head higher towards $2,500/tonne, while zinc on the MCX (₹135.5) can head higher towards ₹152/kg.

The writer is Associate Director-Commodities & Currencies, Angel Commodity Broking. Views are personal.

(This article was published on September 23, 2014)

BANKS SEE GOOD FUTURE...!!!

Here's why banks will rally againBroking firm Jefferies says Indian financial system is now flooded with the kind of liquidity witnessed in 2005-07 and 2009-10Shishir Asthana  |  Mumbai  

September 22, 2014 Last Updated at 18:22 IST

Recently announced non-food credit and GDP data suggested that India is on the path of a credit-less growth. While some businesses are starving for low-cost funds, banks are flushed with liquidity, prompting them to cut down interest rates on deposits.

None of this seems to bother analysts who continue to remain bullish on the sector. Morgan Stanley in a report titled ‘Correction: The upcoming second leg of bank rallies’ says Indian banks have rallied nearly 42% on a year-to-date basis mainly on account of growing confidence in the Indian economy which would in-turn improve asset quality. But the next leg of stock performance will be fundamental driven asloan growth picks up.

Morgan Stanley says that historically bank stocks have rallied in two cycles. Indian banks are currently in the transition phase between the two cycles. The first leg is driven by expectations around better asset quality. The second and more sustained leg is driven by a loan growth pick-up, which sets an earnings upgrade cycle in motion. Banks now have the liquidity to fuel the next round of growth.
Broking firm Jefferies says Indian financial system is now flooded with the kind of liquidity witnessed in 2005-07 and 2009-10. Ample liquidity and lower overnight rates are also showing up in falling risk spreads - BBB-minus bonds are now at their lowest levels. Both commercial paper and certificate of deposit markets are showing signs of life and no liquidity stress.
Several banks have cut home loan rates. If allowed, this trend will be seen across products and in banks' Base Rate sooner than later. Banks, it seems, are waiting for a signal from the central bank to announce a rate cut. As reported in Business Standard in a recent interaction between members of the banking community and RBI, lenders have asked the central bank to cut repo rate to spur loan growth.

RBI Governor has however ruled out any reduction in interest rate in the month-end monetary policy announcement. Analysts are expecting a rate cut from the central bank to take place sometime in 2015. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch report says that a supportive Balance of Payment situation and a stable rupee – though on account of low gold and oil prices should see the central bank reducing interest rates by around 75 basis points in 2015.

Banks however, are now facing a problem of plenty. Liquidity is at such high levels that the amount the banking system needs to borrow from the Central Bank through Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) and other windows (term repos, Marginal Standing Facility or MSF) has declined, reaching near zero, says Jefferies. Without a significant RBI intervention, it is quite possible that the net liquidity balances slip back in to the negative territory or a surplus.

Morgan Stanley says that a capex cycle is needed for loan growth to go back to more than 20 per cent levels, from the current levels of less than 10 per cent. This looks tough in the near term and might happen over the next 1-2 years. However, Morgan Stanley feels retail to be strong and SME (small and medium enterprises) working capital demand to pick up – helping system loan growth to trend to 15% by FY15. This will drive the second leg of this rally.

PSU-BANKS NEED --$ 37 bn

State-run banks in India need $37 bn in fresh capital to meet Basel III: Moody's

Press Trust of India | Mumbai | Updated: Sep 22 2014, 17:03 IST

Public sector banks in India will need to raise up to $37 billion over the next 4-5 years to meet Basel III compliance norms, credit rating agency Moody's said today.

The estimate is based on assumptions that there would be a moderate recovery in the Indian economy and a gradual decline in the non-performing loans from the current levels.

"Our rated public-sector banks in the country will need to raise Rs 1.5-2.2 trillion, (USD 26-37 billion) between FY15 and the full implementation of Basel III in FY19," Moody's said in a report titled, 'Indian banks could need USD 26-37 billion in external capital for Basel III compliance'.

A significant part of the required capital-- Rs 800-900 billion (USD 13-15 billion) -- could be in the form of additional tier I (AT1) capital.

The rating agency rates 11 public sector banks in the country, representing 62 per cent of net loans in the banking system.

Basel III raises the minimum required levels for both total tier I capital to 7 per cent and common equity tier I (CETI) capital to 5.5 per cent. They will also need to meet a capital conservation buffer in order to pay dividends.

"Public sector banks barely meet current minimum capital requirements, and we anticipate that they will find it difficult to raise capital quickly in the current environment," Moody's vice-president Gene Fang said.

According to Moody's, low capital levels remain a key credit weakness for the public-sector banks.

Fang said weak asset quality has depressed profitability and internal capital generation, leaving public-sector banks reliant on periodic capital injections from the government.

"With Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration looking to reduce the budget deficit, the amount available for such injections is not likely to grow," he added.

Moody's said banks may tap the equity markets to raise capital, but with still-low bank valuations, banks could struggle to raise the required amount.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/staterun-banks-in-india-need-37-bn-in-fresh-capital-to-meet-basel-iii-moodys/1291618

CHINA INVESTMENT- $20 bn over 5 years...!!!

President Pranab Mukherjee, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Xi's wife Peng Liyuan during a ceremonial reception at Rashtrapati Bhawan in New Delhi

The expectation of a $100-billion Chinese investment in India got reduced on Thursday as the country committed itself to investing only $20 billion here over five years. The issue of border tension between India and China also came up during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on the second day of the former’s maiden visit to the country.

Modi, though, did not harp much on the issue of defining the line of actual control (LAC) and incursions as strongly as was expected, a top official in the know of what transpired behind closed doors told Business Standard.

Modi had appeared unusually relaxed in a beige kurta and an off-white Nehru jacket as he sat for the much-awaited bilateral talks with an exuberant Xi at the swish Hyderabad House here.

The prime minister said it was imperative to settle the issue of border dispute soon, as that would help gain mutual trust and confidence. “Clarification of LACwill greatly contribute to our efforts to maintain peace and tranquility. We should seek an early settlement of the boundary question,” Modi said, adding in the same breath, border-related agreements and confidence-building measures between the two sides “worked well”.

Many said the new stance — without the usual rhetoric, in a departure from the practice of previous prime ministers — signalled pragmatism. According to another official, Modi was “determined” that this time he would show the Chinese government that India meant business and not just crying foul over border issues.

On his part, Xi said many incursions took place due to non-demarcation of the border. “China has the determination to work with India through friendly consultation to settle the boundary question at an early date.”

He also said China believed in having “peace and harmony” with its neighbours and would be ready to support India’s permanent membership to the United Nations Security Council, provided the border dispute was settled. “We will support India’s seat in the UN Security Council. But both neighbours might have to encounter some problems before that. We would first like to settle the border issue in a way that is fair, mutual and acceptable to both,” Xi said while addressing an event organised by the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA).

Apart from signing as many as 15 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) over two days — plus the 27 that were signed among private firms of both countries — China committed itself to investing $20 billion in India over five years across all sectors of the economy.

Earlier, there were reports that China might commit $100 billion worth of investments in India’s infrastructure development, though there was no official word from Beijing. Had it been so, the Chinese commitment would have been more than the $35 billion promised by Japan during Modi’s recent visit to Tokyo.    

Ahead of Xi’s visit, Chinese embassy officials had briefed Indian scholars that the investment promised would be $100 billion. How this figure came down to $20 billion remained a mystery, the scholars confessed.

The $55 billion investment by Japan and China is 5.13 per cent of the $1.07 trillion the Confederation of Indian Industry reckons India would need to build its infrastructure over the 2014-19 period. The Chinese commitment is 1.86 per cent of this requirement.

In the past 10 years, China has invested $400 million in India. “We agreed that our economic relations did not do justice to our potential. I expressed concern over the slowdown in trade and the worsening trade imbalance. I sought his partnership in improving market access and investment opportunities for Indian companies in China. President Xi assured me of his commitment to taking concrete steps to address our concerns. I have invited Chinese investments in India's infrastructure and manufacturing sectors. I also apprised him about our new policies and administrative steps in this area,” Modi said after his meeting with Xi.

China said it would set up two industrial parks — one each in Gujarat and Maharashtra — which would act as both manufacturing and export hubs. The initial plan is to manufacture power equipment and then gradually expand to making electronic goods and telecom equipment. These parks are expected to be spread over 1,250 acres.

China will also actively participate in developing the country’s rusty rail network. For this, the Chinese seem to have developed a two-pronged strategy. On the one hand, they will increase speed on the existing railway line from Chennai to Mysore via Bangalore, with the Chinese side providing training in heavy haul for 100 Indian Railway officials. On the other, the two sides will cooperate in areas like redevelopment of existing railway stations and setting up of a railway university here. India is also considering cooperating with China on a high-speed rail project.

According to Modi, these measures would open a “new chapter in our economic relations”. He later tweeted a wide range of issues were discussed over two days and both countries decided to “deepen the engagement”.

The issue of soaring trade deficit was highlighted by Modi in the strongest terms possible, sources said. The prime minister also sought improved access to Chinese markets for Indian products and easy investment opportunities for Indian companies.

An agreement was signed between Commerce & Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her Chinese counterpart Gao Hucheng to address the problem of trade deficit by giving enhanced market access to Indian agricultural and pharmaceutical products, besides services. Ronen Sen, India's former ambassador to the US, said the Xi visit had changed the tone of India-China bilateral relationship. “We should stop looking at China from the way we used to. Today, trade and investments have become an integral part of the bilateral relationship. We need to economically integrate with them more, for our own benefit. We should, as Prime Minister Modi this time rightly did, change the predictability factor in our bilateral ties,” Sen said.

Earlier in the day, Chief of Army Staff Dalbir Singh Suhag and other generals had gone armed with detailed maps ahead of Defence Minister Arun Jaitley’s participation in a meeting with Xi. They had briefed the minister on the standoff in Chumar and about the ground situation on the demarcation of the border along the LAC.

MAJOR AGREEMENTS

India and China agree to resolve border dispute and define the Line of Actual Control soon Both sides agree to look at greater cooperation on the issue of shared rivers Take positive steps towards rebalancing bilateral trade and addressing the existing structural imbalance in trade China to set up two industrial parks for 1,250 acres each in Gujarat and Maharashtra China to invest $20 billion in various industrial and infrastructure development projects Increase speed on the existing railway line from Chennai to Mysore via Bangalore Chinese side will provide training in heavy haul for 100 Indian Railway officials Cooperation in High Speed Rail project Annual visits at the level of Heads of State/Government City in each country would be identified for a smart city demonstration project BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India, Myanmar) Economic Corridor to be expedited Chinese side decided to open a new route for the Mansarovar Yatra through Nathu La Pass China will be the partner country at the Delhi International Book Fair 2016.

ACTION ‘PACT’ DAY Documents signed between India & China on Thursday

MoU on new route for Mansarovar pilgrimage MoU to strengthen cooperation in railways Action plan for cooperation in railway projects Trade and economic development plan (includes $20-billion Chinese investment over five years) Agreement on minutes of the 10th session of India-China joint economic group, for specific measures to enhance market access to Indian agricultural and pharma products, besides services Agreement for audio-visual co-production Agreement for cooperation in Customs Agreement for peaceful use of space Agreement for cooperation between cultural institutions MoU for book fairs, etc Work plan for cooperation in pharma standards, traditional medicine and drug testing Agreement for sister city relationship between Mumbai and Shanghai

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/china-dashes-100-bn-hope-to-invest-20-bn-over-5-years-114091800557_1.html

===========

THE STORY OF OVER 5 YEARS IS NOT A VISIBLE SIGN AS WE DON"T TRUST EACH OTHER....

THE 12 AGREEMENTS ARE NOT IN SPECIFIC PROJECT PROPOSALS BUT FOR CONFIDENCE BUILDING ONE....

THE PM's JAPAN VISIT IS MORE CONSTRUCTIVE THAN THIS ONE...

ANY ONE THING IS SURE THAT OUR INFRA STRUCTURE FUNDING NEEDED IS THAT THE REQUIREMENT IS $1.07 trillion the Confederation of Indian Industry reckons India would need to build its infrastructure over the 2014-19 period, SO EVEN IF WE GARNER ONE THIRD IS MORE THAN 300 BILLION DOLLARS...HUGE POTENTIAL TO INFRA COMPANIES.....BET ON ...SELECTIVELY...!!!
THE UTILITIES LIKE CEMENT, STEEL, CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT AND OTHER SERVICES WILL SEE BRIGHT FUTURE..!!!

Sensex still 20% from all time highs...Dollar-adjusted one...!!!

Dollar-adjusted Sensex still 20% from all time highs
Currency has depreciated from around Rs 40 to Rs 60 since previous high in 2008Sachin P Mampatta  |  Mumbai  

September 18, 2014 Last Updated at 12:44 IST

The The S&P BSE Dollex 30, an index which looks at Sensex returns adjusted for changes in the dollar exchange rate, is currently at 3,626.08.
The highest level for the index was 4,365. It will need to gain another 738.92 points or more than 20% to reach its previous all time highs. The Sensex has been touching new all-time highs repeatedly. It crossed the 27,000 mark earlier in the month.
The difference between the two indices is because of the difference in exchange rates during the two times. The going rate for a dollar during January 2008 was around the Rs 40. This is now near Rs 61, a 50% difference.
While a falling rupee erodes the gains of existing foreign investors, it makes Indian stocks cheaper for fresh money.
Foreign institutional investors or FIIs(now called Foreign Portfolio Investors or FPIs) have been net buyers in Indian equities by over Rs 84,000 crore in this calendar year.  Theseforeign flows are expected to continue to be strong, according to Karvy Stock Broking's 'India Equity:Diwali Strategy' note
"The revival in global risk appetite has resulted in fresh FIIinflows into emerging market equities with India turning out to be a big beneficiary. India has been one of the top performing equity markets since January this year with fresh equity inflows of 12.5 billion dollars. We expect the remaining months of this fiscal to witness similar amount of inflows," it said.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/dollar-adjusted-sensex-still-20-from-all-time-highs-114091800331_1.html

NIFTY AT CROSS ROADS...

THE STORY OF FAITH AND POSITIVE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT IS WANING FAST AS THE OTHER DEVELOPMENTS ARE POSTPONING THE FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION AT THE GOVT. LEVEL.

THE SUPREME COURT JUDGEMENT MAY NOW BE DISCOUNTED BUT WILL BE POSITIVE BOTH TO CORPORATE SECTOR AND THE BUREAUCRACY.....

NOW MARKETS ARE TECHNICALLY AT THE CRUCIAL JUNCTURE AS THE 8030-42 RANGE WAS BROKEN DECISIVELY. NOW THE RELIEF RALLY FAILS TO CROSS 8072 LEVEL IS A SERIOUS THREAT TO BULLS. THE CONTINUOUS UNWINDING IS MAKING NERVOUS TO NEW BUYERS AS THE DEEP-POCKETS ARE SELLING THEIR LONGS....

THE FALL STARTED FROM 8-14 AUGUST, THE JP ASSOCIATES MASSACRE BUT MANAGED TO STOP THE WILD FIRE SPREAD, TOOK SMALL CAP PHENOMENAL RISE AS GUARD TO KEEP THE RETAIL INVESTOR INTEREST INTACT...

THE BOTTOM SUPPORTS ARE FAR AWAY AS THE NIFTY CAN DANCE A WHILE AT EACH SUPPORT LEVEL AT 7800, 7480 BUT THE SOLID SUPPORT WILL COME WHEN IT TOUCHES 7200 RANGE...CAN WE EXPECT FAST...IS IT ACCEPTABLE...!!!...NO...SIMPLY GRINDING LOWER AND LOWER......

THE TEST OF BOTTOM CAN BE ASCERTAINED WHEN YES BANK TOUCHES 420-430 RANGE, ICICI TOUCHES 1240-1180 RANGE.... AND THE BANK NIFTY WILL FIND SUPPORT AT 12500-800 LEVEL....
THE SEPTEMBER RESULTS, OCTOBER POLL RESULTS WILL ADD WAIT ON RISE RATHER THAN SUPPORT TO BULLS..SO TILL BUDGET...SIMPLY WAIT FOR LONG-TERM INVESTMENT...

Truant monsoon -11 % DEFICIT..!!!

Truant monsoon could hit Rabi crop prospects too
TOMOJIT BASU
NEW DELHI, SEPT. 17:  With deficit rainfall at 11 per cent, Union Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh stated on Wednesday that parts of the country that had been acutely affected by the erratic monsoon this year will find the Rabi (winter) sowing season challenging.Major wheat producing states like Uttar Pradesh (UP), Haryana and Madhya Pradesh, have had shortfalls in rain with UP declaring 40 districts as drought-hit this week. Haryana had declared all 22 districts drought affected on September 2. Wheat, barley, potato, mustard and maize, are the primary Rabi crops and are sowed at the beginning October and harvested in spring.“Regions that received deficit rainfall will be affected during sowing for the Rabi season. However, despite 11 per cent deficit in rainfall, the situation is not like during 2009 and acreage is down only 3 per cent,” said Singh at the inauguration of a national event highlighting various aspects of the Rabi season.“We managed to institute timely policies to face the challenges of the delayed monsoon. We implemented a diesel subsidy scheme, increased ceiling of the subsidy on seeds, waived duties on the imports of various feed ingredients and provided financial support for horticultural crop growers etc. Contingency plans were prepared for 565 districts,” he added, stating that States would be provided all assistance to achieve production targets.Singh reiterated that prices would be kept under control, using the example of prevailing prices for potatoes and onions at Rs. 30-35 per kilogram (kg) as compared to Rs. 80 per kg under the previous government at this time last year.Fallow land utilisation & production targetsState governments have been asked to utilise nearly 3.37 million hectares of land that was left unsown during the kharif season due to the shortfall in rain. Production of pulses and oilseeds on such land where moisture content had improved would be concentrated on.J S Sandhu, the Agriculture Commissioner, informed that the production target for wheat had been set at 94 mt and that the Government would attempt to utilize 3.37 million hectares of land that had been left fallow during the kharif due to the shortage of rainfall. The year’s targets for rice (14 mt), barley (1.75 mt), maize (6 mt), millets (2.5 mt), pulses (12.5 mt), oilseeds (11 mt) and foodgrains (130.75 mt) were also released.“We are trying to enforce seed certification standards and also further the area application of micronutrients in the soil. The promotion of seed production during the off-season to make up for deficiencies is something we are trying as well planning in advance for summer pulses,” said Sandhu. Strategies to tackle wheat crop diseases like Yellow Rust and Karnal Bunt were underway as well, he added.​(This article was published on September 17, 2014)http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/deficit-rainfall-hits-rabi-sowing/article6419713.ece?homepage=true

INDUSTRIAL GROWTH CONCERNS...!!!

Industrial growth falters

Friday's data present a mixed picture - while CPI inflation falls to 7.8%, IIP growth of 0.5% and low indirect tax collections remain concerns

BS Reporter  |  New Delhi  

September 13, 2014 Last Updated at 00:40 IST

In July, India's industrial growth fell to 0.5 per cent, the lowest this financial year, owing to contraction in manufacturing after three months, official data showed on Friday. While industrial growth in June stood at 3.9 per cent, it was 2.6 per cent in July 2013.

For the first four months of this financial year, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) expanded 3.3 per cent, against contraction of 0.1 per cent in the corresponding period last year. The rise in IIP in the April-June period was primarily due to a low base.

In August, Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation fell to 7.8 per cent from 7.96 per cent in July. During this period, CPI-based food inflation, however, rose from 9.36 per cent to 9.42 per cent. It is expected the sub-normal monsoon this year will raise food inflation further.
While food inflation rose, core inflation (which does not take into account food and fuel inflation) declined to 6.89 per cent in August (the lowest since the series was launched) from 7.41 per cent in July, said a note by YES Bank. This showed pressure on inflation was from food items alone, as inflation for fuel fell to 4.15 per cent in August from 4.47 per cent in June.

The Reserve Bank of India is targeting CPI-based inflation of eight per cent by January, 2015.

If excise duty collections are any indication, the outlook for the IIP for August isn't bleak. In August, excise duty collections rose eight per cent, against 7.5 per cent in July. During the same period, overall indirect tax collections rose from 4.9 per cent to nine per cent. But this growth, as well as that in the April-August period (4.6 per cent) pales in comparison to the 20 per cent pegged in Budget 2014-15. July IIP data didn't have a one-to-one relation with excise duty collections.

"It (IIP data) is not such a negative surprise for us. We were expecting one per cent growth, but it turned out to be 0.5 per cent. Sustaining IIP growth at 3.5 per cent was difficult. The recovery from the second half will be meaningful," said YES Bank chief economist Shubhada Rao.

The IIP for July was primarily dragged down by manufacturing, which contracted one per cent, against 2.4 per cent in the previous month. Of the 22 manufacturing sub-groups, 10 saw contraction, against seven in June.

Consumer durables contracted 20.9 per cent, against 23.4 per cent in June, even as automobile sales are seen rising. Consumer non-durables rose just 2.9 per cent in July, against 4.8 per cent a month earlier. To assess any positive impact on both categories of consumer goods, one has to wait for the festival season to begin.

The capital goods segment contracted 3.8 per cent in July, against 23.26 per cent in the previous month. This segment has traditionally been volatile.
"The disappointing IIP growth and the contraction in capital goods output in July reinforce our view that the pick-up in GDP (gross domestic product) growth in the June quarter did not signify the start of a broad-based economic revival," said Aditi Nayar, senior economist, ICRA.
For the quarter ended June this year, India's economy grew at a two-year high of 5.7 per cent, prompting the finance ministry to exude confidence that this financial year, growth would be 5.8 per cent, against sub-five per cent growth in the previous two financial years. Nayar projected FY15 GDP growth at 5.3-5.5 per cent.

Rao said while she was watchful of the emerging trend in the consumer goods segment, her optimism on a gradual improvement in the Indian economy in FY15 remained intact. "We believe the government's policy measures, amid a revival in the investment sentiment, are likely to guide a recovery in industrial production during the second half of 2014-15," she said.
In July, only the basic goods segment and the electricity sector provided a boost to the IIP. While basic goods rose 7.6 per cent, against 9.8 per cent in June, generation in the electricity sector increased 11.7 per cent, against 15.7 per cent in June. The mining sector expanded 2.1 per cent, against 4.54 per cent in June. Continued uncertainty over coal block allocations might dampen sentiment in the sector further.

OTHER INDICATORS

• HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing down to 52.4 points in August from 53 points in July
   
  • PMI services down to 50.6 points in August from 52.2in July
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  • Excise duty collections rise to 8% year-on-year in August from 7.5% in July
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  • Customs duty collections increase to 9.9% in August from 0.2% in July
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  • Services tax collections rise 9% in August from 8.4% in July
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  • Overall indirect tax collections rise 9% in August from 4.9% in July
  • • http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/industrial-growth-falters-114091300020_1.html