The markets took the global positive cues and the crude falling from the peaks has provided the much needed bottom support. But do we have the courage to encourage the growth and taming the inflation with cautious approach?. The rainfall is keeping the experts fingers crossed as they can do very little about it and say it is above normal. Any delay more than a week can change the cropping equations.
The Nifty has crossed the minor resistance while facing the non-stop selling spree. Though it looks too early to conclude but as things stand out today on the face of it looks that Nifty made a reasonable support at 3800 level and will advance upto 4380-4550. The possible hurdle could be the failure of the Govt. to secure the trust vote and you know the result.
The Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Thursday, July 17, 2008
"Life" lived in the markets…
The dud feeling in the markets were eliminated for this day as the markets showed the elegance in pushing the prices up as well the Nifty.
As we expected, Nifty could cross the 3940 level in morning and could stay through out the day and closed above the crucial closing of 3943 level as expected in the morning posting.
The reality sector, banking sector posted decent gains. In the Intraday stock calls I clearly mention the strengths of RCOM, SBI, ICICI bank and RIL. They neither breached the support levels nor failed to continue their northward journey as the strength of support increased.
The Ranbaxy trouble may live for some weeks and the trouble from the forex losses may increase in the number, eroded the share value of the companies like Biocon, HCL tech, Mind Tree but the TCS could absorb the loss.
The Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
As we expected, Nifty could cross the 3940 level in morning and could stay through out the day and closed above the crucial closing of 3943 level as expected in the morning posting.
The reality sector, banking sector posted decent gains. In the Intraday stock calls I clearly mention the strengths of RCOM, SBI, ICICI bank and RIL. They neither breached the support levels nor failed to continue their northward journey as the strength of support increased.
The Ranbaxy trouble may live for some weeks and the trouble from the forex losses may increase in the number, eroded the share value of the companies like Biocon, HCL tech, Mind Tree but the TCS could absorb the loss.
The Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
Positive Global cues….
The markets in US were very positive and posted decent gains. The Asian markets are in green and they can boost the positive sentiment in our markets. The crude fall gave a face lift at least for this week.
The tech Indians ADRs shined, Infy by 5.8%, Satyam by 6%, Wipro by 4%, the banking majors ICICI by 8.5% and the HDFC Bank rose by 6.5%.
The markets likely to post decent early gains in the morning and the challenge remains at this point is whether we could continue to cross the resistance at 3971-73 level and shall close above 3943. The severely beaten down banking and reality sectors will see some recovery.
Those who believe that the N-deal will go through with a positive trust vote can start buying the Nuclear equipment & parts supplying companies and the construction companies those are capable of executing these critical works.
The tech Indians ADRs shined, Infy by 5.8%, Satyam by 6%, Wipro by 4%, the banking majors ICICI by 8.5% and the HDFC Bank rose by 6.5%.
The markets likely to post decent early gains in the morning and the challenge remains at this point is whether we could continue to cross the resistance at 3971-73 level and shall close above 3943. The severely beaten down banking and reality sectors will see some recovery.
Those who believe that the N-deal will go through with a positive trust vote can start buying the Nuclear equipment & parts supplying companies and the construction companies those are capable of executing these critical works.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
The action for big action…..
The markets are struggling to face the new challenges at higher levels but are determined to fight against the present situation. There was no specific change in the economic/political situation but a favour came from “cooling of crude”, gave some bottom support to market.
The tech results are not very enthusiastic to take the Nifty levels to higher levels from these levels be it with Infy, TCS. The telecom stocks with lead from Bharti are going to scale high. After the 60 points positive start it went back to 70 points negative but recovered well with support from ONGC, Bharti, Ranbaxy, HUL, capital goods & power sectors.
The Bearish out look will remain at least for two quarters for sure. The crude has to trade below 120 dollars and the resultant ease of inflation will give positive signals to RBI to relax the money tightening policies. The cumulative effect can be seen in the indices with confidence in the investor community, then the Nifty will trade above 4500 level and the foreign money will chase our stocks. Till these things happen without much deviation, the markets will be in trading range.
Anyway we have to live with the numbers, the Nifty has some support at least for the time being at 3800 level till the trust vote. The temporary support shall push the Nifty above 3879 level in the morning trade and shall cross above 3940 level to see Bulls build confidence for time being.
The traders might have observed the fall in RIL below 2020 level and RPL below 163, once their support levels (suggested) were breached.
The Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
The tech results are not very enthusiastic to take the Nifty levels to higher levels from these levels be it with Infy, TCS. The telecom stocks with lead from Bharti are going to scale high. After the 60 points positive start it went back to 70 points negative but recovered well with support from ONGC, Bharti, Ranbaxy, HUL, capital goods & power sectors.
The Bearish out look will remain at least for two quarters for sure. The crude has to trade below 120 dollars and the resultant ease of inflation will give positive signals to RBI to relax the money tightening policies. The cumulative effect can be seen in the indices with confidence in the investor community, then the Nifty will trade above 4500 level and the foreign money will chase our stocks. Till these things happen without much deviation, the markets will be in trading range.
Anyway we have to live with the numbers, the Nifty has some support at least for the time being at 3800 level till the trust vote. The temporary support shall push the Nifty above 3879 level in the morning trade and shall cross above 3940 level to see Bulls build confidence for time being.
The traders might have observed the fall in RIL below 2020 level and RPL below 163, once their support levels (suggested) were breached.
The Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Only down….down/low grades….
India is now passing through a rough phase with low grade, lower grade marks for investments as “Fitch down grades India”. The down grades from Moody’s and Standard & Poor will come out with their reports soon.
The gloomy picture of today was not visualized in Jan-08.The crude was at $120 per barrel and every body expected that it will touch $150 per barrel but the markets across the world were in jubilant mood with bullish out look. Now there was nothing left to write on the emerging India’s growth story or the opportunities available. Now the issue is how fast we recover from the pessimistic views to positive view?.
The markets sold off today and could not recover from their lows. The Nifty supports are eroded with the flood like supply of selling orders. Now the Nifty lost it’s significance of bottom supports and the present situation throws a new challenge to cross the hurdles on the up side. The fist hurdle to cross is at 4040 level and should cross the second hurdle at 4280 level then there is some thing left to think on the Bulls side.
The Reliance to cross the resistance at 2140 and later it has to cross the second resistance at 2260 level to confirm the ease of the Bear pressure in this counter.
The banking sector heavy weight like ICICI has to cross the resistance of 645-50 level and the SBI has to trade above 1390 level. After persistence efforts at the front line stocks can throw light that some of the positive efforts of Bulls are yielding results. The earlier posts were discussed about the other heavy weights of Nifty that can influence.
The gloomy picture of today was not visualized in Jan-08.The crude was at $120 per barrel and every body expected that it will touch $150 per barrel but the markets across the world were in jubilant mood with bullish out look. Now there was nothing left to write on the emerging India’s growth story or the opportunities available. Now the issue is how fast we recover from the pessimistic views to positive view?.
The markets sold off today and could not recover from their lows. The Nifty supports are eroded with the flood like supply of selling orders. Now the Nifty lost it’s significance of bottom supports and the present situation throws a new challenge to cross the hurdles on the up side. The fist hurdle to cross is at 4040 level and should cross the second hurdle at 4280 level then there is some thing left to think on the Bulls side.
The Reliance to cross the resistance at 2140 and later it has to cross the second resistance at 2260 level to confirm the ease of the Bear pressure in this counter.
The banking sector heavy weight like ICICI has to cross the resistance of 645-50 level and the SBI has to trade above 1390 level. After persistence efforts at the front line stocks can throw light that some of the positive efforts of Bulls are yielding results. The earlier posts were discussed about the other heavy weights of Nifty that can influence.
The Asian meltdown…..
The Asian markets are reeling under pressure from the financial troubles facing by the US mortgage companies and the escalating tensions around Iran and the Israel. The US big brother control over the resources and geographies are the real causes for the commodity prices upward move but unfortunately in the uni-polar world there is country dare to question/check the US high handness.
The tensions across the global equity markets spreading fear in the emerging markets investments there by drifting lower and lower.
The Nifty is having reasonable first at support at 3961-63 level and the 3900 shall hold till the trust vote is over. The Infy shall find buying support at lower level as the correction is very steep. It was deep down at 1310 level in second week of March gone up to 2000 level in June came down to 1550 level. So it will save Nifty and the price can go from 1500 to 1680-1720 level in near future.
The telecom stocks will rise as the 3G auction is all set to take place in a month or two and Bharti is good for del. above 750 level, but for today it is very likely that it will be available at 703-06 or even below that support level. The RCOM will rally from this level to 580 level once the reverse merger with MTN takes place.
The RPL can drift to lower in case it trades below 163 level and the reality and infra likely to see lower levels. The metals especially ferrous will find selling pressure for today, Sail is weak below 139 and Tata steel below 686-89 level.
The tensions across the global equity markets spreading fear in the emerging markets investments there by drifting lower and lower.
The Nifty is having reasonable first at support at 3961-63 level and the 3900 shall hold till the trust vote is over. The Infy shall find buying support at lower level as the correction is very steep. It was deep down at 1310 level in second week of March gone up to 2000 level in June came down to 1550 level. So it will save Nifty and the price can go from 1500 to 1680-1720 level in near future.
The telecom stocks will rise as the 3G auction is all set to take place in a month or two and Bharti is good for del. above 750 level, but for today it is very likely that it will be available at 703-06 or even below that support level. The RCOM will rally from this level to 580 level once the reverse merger with MTN takes place.
The RPL can drift to lower in case it trades below 163 level and the reality and infra likely to see lower levels. The metals especially ferrous will find selling pressure for today, Sail is weak below 139 and Tata steel below 686-89 level.
Monday, July 14, 2008
The fall is faster…..
The traders might have observed that the fall is much faster than the snail pace rise. The markets likely to witness the same kind of volatility till the HNI’s-deep pocked investors grab the early opportunity. The markets will fall but not more than 10% and create havoc in the minds of retail investor and pain in the heart.
The Nifty will not fall to 3200-300 levels as it fell from 5200 to this level. In case a sharp sell off from any సైడ్, market depth was shallow and it cannot take any out-right throw away sell-off.
The Nifty showed the required bull support to cross the 4093 level as posted in the morning but could not hold above 4073 level to give peace to the Bulls.
The Reliance (posted in the morning-The Reliance closed below 2020 level but for today it shall trade below 1990 so that the bears can make their day happy at this counter.) made a low of 1990 took support for this day abated the bears to make merry at the counter. The metals made a good come back across all counters and showed their strength. The RCOM failed to trade above 441-43 convincingly drifted to 435-36 level and Bharti didn’t hold the promise above 747. A surprise at the banking sector to many is that the Axis bank failed to cheer the street in spite of its robust quarterly numbers. The Ranbaxy sell off helps the Daiichi to buy the company with out raising the open offer.
The Nifty will not fall to 3200-300 levels as it fell from 5200 to this level. In case a sharp sell off from any సైడ్, market depth was shallow and it cannot take any out-right throw away sell-off.
The Nifty showed the required bull support to cross the 4093 level as posted in the morning but could not hold above 4073 level to give peace to the Bulls.
The Reliance (posted in the morning-The Reliance closed below 2020 level but for today it shall trade below 1990 so that the bears can make their day happy at this counter.) made a low of 1990 took support for this day abated the bears to make merry at the counter. The metals made a good come back across all counters and showed their strength. The RCOM failed to trade above 441-43 convincingly drifted to 435-36 level and Bharti didn’t hold the promise above 747. A surprise at the banking sector to many is that the Axis bank failed to cheer the street in spite of its robust quarterly numbers. The Ranbaxy sell off helps the Daiichi to buy the company with out raising the open offer.
Can we be in green….
The markets sold off due to the poor IIP numbers and the rising inflation numbers. The market closed temporarily at the support level at 4049 is a good sign. The two days made lots of changes in the political equations. The Congress thought that it could easily convince the smaller parties but Karat took it to his heart to tumble the Govt. and in the process a head of the ruling party. This could through a negative signal to the recovering markets.
The Nifty shall trade above 4073 and shall cross the resistance at 4093 level taking positive cues from the Asian markets. In case it fails to do so and trades below the 3990 level then it may touch 3900 level where it can has some support.
The Reliance closed below 2020 level but for today it shall trade below 1990 so that the bears can make their day happy at this counter. The RPL is strong above 169-170 level and weak below 163 level. The Infras may see further buying support at lower levels. The DLF is good above 449-51 weak below 446. The JP Associates was sold off could recover to day if it could trade above 165 but it is very unlikely. The Unitech is in a better place, good above 170 and weak below 165. The GMR Infra is good above 91 and weak below 89 level.
The RCOM showed resilience and the low is well above 421-23 support level. It is likely to advance further if it trades above 439-41 level. The Bharti crossed the first hurdle at 747 and the second at 757 level. So it is good for delivery in case the markets recover and trade above 751.
The USFDA case against Ranbaxy could dampen the share rise. The scrip trades below 531 then short sellers enjoy with a stop-loss of 541 from where it will be in Bull grip.
The markets will be volatile as both parties Bulls and Bears determined to win over the other. The Nifty is good for long only when it trades above 4145 level.
The Nifty shall trade above 4073 and shall cross the resistance at 4093 level taking positive cues from the Asian markets. In case it fails to do so and trades below the 3990 level then it may touch 3900 level where it can has some support.
The Reliance closed below 2020 level but for today it shall trade below 1990 so that the bears can make their day happy at this counter. The RPL is strong above 169-170 level and weak below 163 level. The Infras may see further buying support at lower levels. The DLF is good above 449-51 weak below 446. The JP Associates was sold off could recover to day if it could trade above 165 but it is very unlikely. The Unitech is in a better place, good above 170 and weak below 165. The GMR Infra is good above 91 and weak below 89 level.
The RCOM showed resilience and the low is well above 421-23 support level. It is likely to advance further if it trades above 439-41 level. The Bharti crossed the first hurdle at 747 and the second at 757 level. So it is good for delivery in case the markets recover and trade above 751.
The USFDA case against Ranbaxy could dampen the share rise. The scrip trades below 531 then short sellers enjoy with a stop-loss of 541 from where it will be in Bull grip.
The markets will be volatile as both parties Bulls and Bears determined to win over the other. The Nifty is good for long only when it trades above 4145 level.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Numbers in profits…….
The markets are in full bear grip as they slipped from the 5185 level the very crucial support now has become a distance dream to reach. The fundamental analysts hope that the markets get life from the numbers declared by the companies and the profits in particular. The technical analysts also munching the numbers at which the company has support and resistances. So now the season is immersed in numbers.
The Business Line- Sunday, July 13, 2008, on the front page printed “Institutional investors buy ‘out-of-favour’ sectors in July”. The text covered as “What are institutional investors buying, with the Sensex hovering at 13k levels?. Mid-cap stocks in out-of favour sectors such as realestate, infrastructure, automobile, media and banking apper to have come back into the “buy” list of leading FIIs in July……”
Let the under-performing ( POSTED on Dt 30-06-2008)…..One of the clear signs of trend reversal in a bull market, the outperforming stock of yesterdays starts the signs of under-performance as the days goes by. The Index continues to surge in the same direction but the darlings take a nap. The same is the case with the falling market. There are some stocks those fall very steep than a retail investor could identify/imagine. The outright sell off will be seen with steep falls, as the days pass by every body could recognize that what was happened?. So the Deep-pockets garner the best opportunity to sell. In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. A clear observation can through the opportunity open to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.
To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time are Real estate and Capital goods. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.
The Business Line- Sunday, July 13, 2008, on the front page printed “Institutional investors buy ‘out-of-favour’ sectors in July”. The text covered as “What are institutional investors buying, with the Sensex hovering at 13k levels?. Mid-cap stocks in out-of favour sectors such as realestate, infrastructure, automobile, media and banking apper to have come back into the “buy” list of leading FIIs in July……”
Let the under-performing ( POSTED on Dt 30-06-2008)…..One of the clear signs of trend reversal in a bull market, the outperforming stock of yesterdays starts the signs of under-performance as the days goes by. The Index continues to surge in the same direction but the darlings take a nap. The same is the case with the falling market. There are some stocks those fall very steep than a retail investor could identify/imagine. The outright sell off will be seen with steep falls, as the days pass by every body could recognize that what was happened?. So the Deep-pockets garner the best opportunity to sell. In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. A clear observation can through the opportunity open to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.
To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time are Real estate and Capital goods. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.
Friday, July 11, 2008
It came, went …dust was left….
The results of Infy are no surprise to many but the markets spooked the hopes of Bulls while falling relentlessly. The Nifty lost the bottom support at 4115-11 level and was parked at 4015 and closed at 4049 level with a consolation as this was the first positive close on weekly basis after a long time.
The IIP numbers surprised too many especially to the markets apart from the FM and RBI. The heads need to break their heads to manage the worsening situation forces them to take corrective measures in order to boost the economy and contain the inflation. The job at both hands made them to become busy to speak on economy.
The Infy results brought it to the April month end prices. It ruled two and half months above 1650 and a high at 2030. The results are good and the future out look is not conservative but the markets not enthused.
Yester day I wrote about the Forex losses that came from HCL-tech results and many more companies will publish in the forth coming results.
The Reliance closed below the 2020 level and the next level ….?
The IIP numbers surprised too many especially to the markets apart from the FM and RBI. The heads need to break their heads to manage the worsening situation forces them to take corrective measures in order to boost the economy and contain the inflation. The job at both hands made them to become busy to speak on economy.
The Infy results brought it to the April month end prices. It ruled two and half months above 1650 and a high at 2030. The results are good and the future out look is not conservative but the markets not enthused.
Yester day I wrote about the Forex losses that came from HCL-tech results and many more companies will publish in the forth coming results.
The Reliance closed below the 2020 level and the next level ….?
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Changes in the support levels?.
There are slight changes in the important heavy weights of Nifty which has first support at 4120 level and the second probably the temporary best at 4030 level.The Nifty shall trade above 4180 level to see futher 5% rise. The Infosys results are likely to change sentiment and the Nifty levels. The market always looks for special events and many a times it surprises many.
The Reliance is at the verge of its support at 2020 level and the RPL is struggling to cross the 174 hurdle. The Infosys is good so long it trades above1730 level, Wipro has good support above 435 and will become weak below 421. The TCS is one of the strong counters above 830 and Satyam above 456. The telecom counters are above their support levels but they are showing weakness due to selling pressure above the ruling current levels. The ONGC is struggling to cross the 892 hurdle but it will become weak only below 840.
The positives of yesterday and day before needs to get buying for SBI, REL Infra, NTPC, DLF, ABB and ICICI Bank. The ever escalating inflation figures, the global markets weakness and the challenges of the political parties are likely to dampen the euphoric strength shown by the Bulls.
Just observe I could be wrong: The S.P. support to Govt. strengthened Mr. Amar Sigh and he is (demanding) meeting the officials of different Ministries to dictate the policies of future, sorry I failed to present it correctly; to provide direction to future policies again sorry but the correct presentation is guidance/assistance to varies policy matters.
The Reliance is at the verge of its support at 2020 level and the RPL is struggling to cross the 174 hurdle. The Infosys is good so long it trades above1730 level, Wipro has good support above 435 and will become weak below 421. The TCS is one of the strong counters above 830 and Satyam above 456. The telecom counters are above their support levels but they are showing weakness due to selling pressure above the ruling current levels. The ONGC is struggling to cross the 892 hurdle but it will become weak only below 840.
The positives of yesterday and day before needs to get buying for SBI, REL Infra, NTPC, DLF, ABB and ICICI Bank. The ever escalating inflation figures, the global markets weakness and the challenges of the political parties are likely to dampen the euphoric strength shown by the Bulls.
Just observe I could be wrong: The S.P. support to Govt. strengthened Mr. Amar Sigh and he is (demanding) meeting the officials of different Ministries to dictate the policies of future, sorry I failed to present it correctly; to provide direction to future policies again sorry but the correct presentation is guidance/assistance to varies policy matters.
Waiting for Infosys results….?
The markets not only ours but the Asian markets shrug of the US cues as they are tired of accepting the negatives for the time being. Our markets traded as if they are waiting positive cues from the Tech giant Infosys. As such there was no gross violation in the levels suggested in the earlier postings.
The techs any way produce good results on the back of the depreciated rupee but the surprises will come from the monetary losses due to advance selling of dollars anticipating the rupee strengthening. The dollar-rupee management has become great job at hand to many dollar earning companies. They trade with anticipation of something and the reverse will happen as in the case of day traders do in the market. The result will be same to every one who trade continuously on any markets.
The smaller names are getting buying support in the market is a good sign that the markets are consolidating at the lower levels. This move will help the markets to move further by 10% from these levels. The metal sector got good support and the losers are the auto sector. The real estate pack will loose some market cap in the days to come but the capital goods sector will add value.
The techs any way produce good results on the back of the depreciated rupee but the surprises will come from the monetary losses due to advance selling of dollars anticipating the rupee strengthening. The dollar-rupee management has become great job at hand to many dollar earning companies. They trade with anticipation of something and the reverse will happen as in the case of day traders do in the market. The result will be same to every one who trade continuously on any markets.
The smaller names are getting buying support in the market is a good sign that the markets are consolidating at the lower levels. This move will help the markets to move further by 10% from these levels. The metal sector got good support and the losers are the auto sector. The real estate pack will loose some market cap in the days to come but the capital goods sector will add value.
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Strong bullishness displayed………
The markets soared to new high after it crossed 4100 level as the retail short sellers are in queue to cover.
The lackluster move displayed by the techs showed their strength at the fag end of the trading session. The levels suggested yesterday are valid till they are breached.
To analyse the levels: NTPC is very good above 163, today low is 163. RelInfra is very good above 805 level and the traders might have observed how it rallied from 805 to 845. RCOM is good above 421 level and today low registered at 420. Bharti traded above 731 to reach 758. The Punjlloyd maintained above 230 level. The RIl did not trade below 2025 rallied to 2095 level and the RPL traded at 168-169. The indicators suggested shall not loose their bottom supports to see that markets keep going up wards.
There is a word of caution: A patient discharged from hospital can walk but shall never try jogging/running.
The lackluster move displayed by the techs showed their strength at the fag end of the trading session. The levels suggested yesterday are valid till they are breached.
To analyse the levels: NTPC is very good above 163, today low is 163. RelInfra is very good above 805 level and the traders might have observed how it rallied from 805 to 845. RCOM is good above 421 level and today low registered at 420. Bharti traded above 731 to reach 758. The Punjlloyd maintained above 230 level. The RIl did not trade below 2025 rallied to 2095 level and the RPL traded at 168-169. The indicators suggested shall not loose their bottom supports to see that markets keep going up wards.
There is a word of caution: A patient discharged from hospital can walk but shall never try jogging/running.
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
No Left only Right to N-deal….
The UPA govt. lost the support of Left to stay in power to sign the N-deal but manages to garner the like minded parties to corner the Left that the deal is inevitable in current scenario to meet the ever rising energy needs.
So the deal will be through and benefit lots of companies like LT, Punjlloyd, ABB, Areva T&D, Siemens, NTPC, RelInfra and many other smaller companies queuing to cut their share in the cake.
The best thing to the markets is that the uncertainties as odds to Bulls start diluting as the time pass by. The Nifty clearly took support at 3850 level. The banking sector is inviting the MTM loss from their overseas bonds/contracts due to the new guidelines proposed by the RBI and the Reliance weakness crippling the fast run up from these levels.
The frontline stocks likely to advance (for tomorrow & short-term indicators) as the RIL is good above 2025, very good to markets if it can cross 2140 level and shall not trade below 1930 level (last excuse). The RPL shall trade above 167-168 level and shall not trade below 160-161 level.
The RCOM has good support at 405-403 level and good above 421 level. Bharti shall cross and trade above 729-31 level and shall not fall below 706-03. The ONGC shall trade above 886 and shall not trade below 840 level. The NTPC is good above 156 and very good above 163. The Rel Infra is good above 756 and very good if it could trade above 805 level. The Punjlloyd is good above 230 and very good if could cross 246 level but the low shall not breach 204 level.
The tech pack suddenly lost their support and started correcting to adjust to Nifty levels with positive bias.
This may not sound good but the fact is that the bears will not allow the Nifty for a run-up rally with a single/two piece of good news. The smaller political leaders/parities will cry loudly to bring attention for a better bargain could make the Nifty swing widely. During this bold headlines time before seeking the vote of confidence the “deep pocketed” shorts will be covered peacefully. The rally cannot be expected at this point in time as the consolidation has also not happened after the steep sell of fall from 5300 level. So the Nifty may oscillate between 3900-4680 level for July and first half of Aug-08. During this period the crude likely to come around 112-118 dollars and the inflation may show its decline to South-wards.
So the deal will be through and benefit lots of companies like LT, Punjlloyd, ABB, Areva T&D, Siemens, NTPC, RelInfra and many other smaller companies queuing to cut their share in the cake.
The best thing to the markets is that the uncertainties as odds to Bulls start diluting as the time pass by. The Nifty clearly took support at 3850 level. The banking sector is inviting the MTM loss from their overseas bonds/contracts due to the new guidelines proposed by the RBI and the Reliance weakness crippling the fast run up from these levels.
The frontline stocks likely to advance (for tomorrow & short-term indicators) as the RIL is good above 2025, very good to markets if it can cross 2140 level and shall not trade below 1930 level (last excuse). The RPL shall trade above 167-168 level and shall not trade below 160-161 level.
The RCOM has good support at 405-403 level and good above 421 level. Bharti shall cross and trade above 729-31 level and shall not fall below 706-03. The ONGC shall trade above 886 and shall not trade below 840 level. The NTPC is good above 156 and very good above 163. The Rel Infra is good above 756 and very good if it could trade above 805 level. The Punjlloyd is good above 230 and very good if could cross 246 level but the low shall not breach 204 level.
The tech pack suddenly lost their support and started correcting to adjust to Nifty levels with positive bias.
This may not sound good but the fact is that the bears will not allow the Nifty for a run-up rally with a single/two piece of good news. The smaller political leaders/parities will cry loudly to bring attention for a better bargain could make the Nifty swing widely. During this bold headlines time before seeking the vote of confidence the “deep pocketed” shorts will be covered peacefully. The rally cannot be expected at this point in time as the consolidation has also not happened after the steep sell of fall from 5300 level. So the Nifty may oscillate between 3900-4680 level for July and first half of Aug-08. During this period the crude likely to come around 112-118 dollars and the inflation may show its decline to South-wards.
Monday, July 07, 2008
The pain balm move……
The markets world over are reeling under pressure from the crude weight and the follow-on inflation effects we are no eception but the fall from the heighs on profit booking is a big concern. As a matter of fact the effects of global melt down in equities carry forward to the demand and supply mismatch to commodities and the real estate. The correction in the crude will not give any rally to equities but provide cushion to a fresh free fall.
Now the July-Aug-2007 level is not sacrosanct to hold the Nifty above 4000 level but the looming uncertainties will take the Nifty below 3200 level once the 3800 level is breached. The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty while falling touched without any resistance from the Bulls. Now the markets are on hold from their free fall but the risk takers can try as the adjustments temporarily favour the Bulls.
The weakness in Reliance and the RPL are the major concern as the markets are struggling to accept any wind fall weight from these counters. The fall from highs are a negative signal at this time but the hope lies in the charts as the Nifty closed above 4020 level. In case the Reliance falls below 1950, RPL trades below 161 level then this minor positive sentiment will fade away.
Now the July-Aug-2007 level is not sacrosanct to hold the Nifty above 4000 level but the looming uncertainties will take the Nifty below 3200 level once the 3800 level is breached. The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty while falling touched without any resistance from the Bulls. Now the markets are on hold from their free fall but the risk takers can try as the adjustments temporarily favour the Bulls.
The weakness in Reliance and the RPL are the major concern as the markets are struggling to accept any wind fall weight from these counters. The fall from highs are a negative signal at this time but the hope lies in the charts as the Nifty closed above 4020 level. In case the Reliance falls below 1950, RPL trades below 161 level then this minor positive sentiment will fade away.
Sunday, July 06, 2008
The short term technicals…..
The markets likely to open with positive note as they were tired of negative news and Southward journey. But the up move will be with doubt about the future (now for the next day).
The pure technicals show that the Nifty could move above another 400 points so long it stays above 3945-35 level and Reliance stays above 2025 level. The up move will be sustained for only when the heavy weights shall cross their immediate resistance levels. The frontline counters like Bharati shall cross above 745, Reliance to cross above 2180, ONGC shall cross 900, Infosys shall cross 1800, the TCS shall cross 880, RPL shall cross 178, the UNITECH shall cross 183 and DLF shall cross 440 level.
The worry some factor is that Reliance and RPL counters were noting trading with the momentum as they always.
The pure technicals show that the Nifty could move above another 400 points so long it stays above 3945-35 level and Reliance stays above 2025 level. The up move will be sustained for only when the heavy weights shall cross their immediate resistance levels. The frontline counters like Bharati shall cross above 745, Reliance to cross above 2180, ONGC shall cross 900, Infosys shall cross 1800, the TCS shall cross 880, RPL shall cross 178, the UNITECH shall cross 183 and DLF shall cross 440 level.
The worry some factor is that Reliance and RPL counters were noting trading with the momentum as they always.
Saturday, July 05, 2008
The confusion creates…..
The markets took the much required support at the 3850 level and the efforts of bulls being respected in placing the Nifty above 4000 level.
The markets are at confusion about the future whether India can out perform at the Global competition as the environment was changed due to the high crude prices and inflation. To add fuel to the fire the local political situation is also very bad even though everybody is trying to pose a brave face while facing the camera.
Whether it is Dr Kalam or Dr Manmohan who recommends the N-deal but the changed economic compulsions forcing us to sign on the deal to safe guard the energy security to the nation. The markets live with short sighted policies, the political compulsions and competitiveness of the economy to excel in future. The perceived robust growth of economy is intact inspite of the above discussed problems.
The monsoon is so far good but the high input cost is becoming an expensive investment at the agriculture level. The farmers are no longer attached to the tag that they need to cultivate and produce food for the rest but they are equating as investment and return.
The first quarter (Mar-June) results and the industry views on the demand supply side at their level will decide the future course of direction of the Nifty.The RBI governs work became very tough to deal with the inflation as limited tools left at his disposal to dealt with the situation. The crude oil price fall can infuse strength to emerging economies like India. The situation will ease as things stand at this point in time. The other challenge is the Rain God’s blessings to India.
The external and the limited controllable situations are controlling the Nifty direction at this point in time. The time will ease things and the turmoil will melt down and the confusion dust will settle down by Sep-08 but the fog of parliament elections will again put speed breaks to the upward Journey of Nifty in 2008.
So all around existing confusion will lay down heavy burden on the shoulders of the Bulls even though the macro and micro economic conditions look bright for the long-term journey ahead.
The markets are at confusion about the future whether India can out perform at the Global competition as the environment was changed due to the high crude prices and inflation. To add fuel to the fire the local political situation is also very bad even though everybody is trying to pose a brave face while facing the camera.
Whether it is Dr Kalam or Dr Manmohan who recommends the N-deal but the changed economic compulsions forcing us to sign on the deal to safe guard the energy security to the nation. The markets live with short sighted policies, the political compulsions and competitiveness of the economy to excel in future. The perceived robust growth of economy is intact inspite of the above discussed problems.
The monsoon is so far good but the high input cost is becoming an expensive investment at the agriculture level. The farmers are no longer attached to the tag that they need to cultivate and produce food for the rest but they are equating as investment and return.
The first quarter (Mar-June) results and the industry views on the demand supply side at their level will decide the future course of direction of the Nifty.The RBI governs work became very tough to deal with the inflation as limited tools left at his disposal to dealt with the situation. The crude oil price fall can infuse strength to emerging economies like India. The situation will ease as things stand at this point in time. The other challenge is the Rain God’s blessings to India.
The external and the limited controllable situations are controlling the Nifty direction at this point in time. The time will ease things and the turmoil will melt down and the confusion dust will settle down by Sep-08 but the fog of parliament elections will again put speed breaks to the upward Journey of Nifty in 2008.
So all around existing confusion will lay down heavy burden on the shoulders of the Bulls even though the macro and micro economic conditions look bright for the long-term journey ahead.
Thursday, July 03, 2008
The early signs…….
The markets are taking the early signs of recovery from these levels. To substantiate the earlier posting, there was a jubilant recovery that occurred as if there was a bull grip over the markets.
Today the market lost all the gains that made yesterday. The silver lining of the days action is that the markets dug enough space to burry. As a matter of fact whose grave yard is this any way?. The markets may test the 3600 level but the bounce could become very sharp as it happened in yesterday’s move. The hope that can light the Bull Run torch could be from the support from the Nuclear deal.
The market stability will also depend on the 4020 level, and shall march above to 4230 level crossing the high of 4285 with in 3-4 trading sessions. Incase this won’t happen then we ca assume that the bottoms were washed till 3100 level. We like it or not the markets know the news better and that will be reflected in the price that is what ultimately represent in the technical analysis. The Reliance shall trade above 2080 level and shall cross the early resistance of 2285. The bottom support of RIL, ONGC, SBI, Infosys, wipro, Bharti, LT, BHEL and DLF shall not be challenged by more than 2 percent.
There is no reason to worry at this point in time as the markets are at cross roads. It could become a good opportunity buy rather than selling the holdings. The bounce will easily take the Nifty to 4560-4630 level. The temporary worst can be considered over when the Reliance Infra crosses 850 level, India Bulls Real-estate crosses 310 level, the LT crosses 2400 level, Bharti crosses 785 level.
Today the market lost all the gains that made yesterday. The silver lining of the days action is that the markets dug enough space to burry. As a matter of fact whose grave yard is this any way?. The markets may test the 3600 level but the bounce could become very sharp as it happened in yesterday’s move. The hope that can light the Bull Run torch could be from the support from the Nuclear deal.
The market stability will also depend on the 4020 level, and shall march above to 4230 level crossing the high of 4285 with in 3-4 trading sessions. Incase this won’t happen then we ca assume that the bottoms were washed till 3100 level. We like it or not the markets know the news better and that will be reflected in the price that is what ultimately represent in the technical analysis. The Reliance shall trade above 2080 level and shall cross the early resistance of 2285. The bottom support of RIL, ONGC, SBI, Infosys, wipro, Bharti, LT, BHEL and DLF shall not be challenged by more than 2 percent.
There is no reason to worry at this point in time as the markets are at cross roads. It could become a good opportunity buy rather than selling the holdings. The bounce will easily take the Nifty to 4560-4630 level. The temporary worst can be considered over when the Reliance Infra crosses 850 level, India Bulls Real-estate crosses 310 level, the LT crosses 2400 level, Bharti crosses 785 level.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Let the under-performing…..
One of the clear signs of trend reversal in a bull market happens when the outperforming stocks of yesterday start the signs of under-performance as the days goes by. The Index continues to surge in the same direction but the darlings take a nap. The same is the case with the falling market. There are some stocks those fall very steep surprises the retail investor and very little could understand. The outright sell off will be seen with steep falls, as the days pass by every body could recognize that what was happened?.The Deep-pockets garner the best opportunity to sell at higher levels and they also enjoy the early gains of up trend.
In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. The stock price always speaks the truth louder than the news. A clear observation can through the opportunity to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.
To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time- Real estate and Capital goods shall start perform. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.
In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. The stock price always speaks the truth louder than the news. A clear observation can through the opportunity to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.
To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time- Real estate and Capital goods shall start perform. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
crude CRUDE acting......
The Aug-2007 levels…..May-07 levels...the journey towards south starded in Jan-2008 could end in Sep-08.
The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty touched without any resistance from the bulls.
Now the markets are on a free fall. The risk takers right from the 5100 level, 4800 level and the worst hit at 4600 level were wiped out as the uncertainties are looming large.
The markets got support only when the trend reversal happens at the front line stocks. The best things can be seen only when Reliance crosses 2440 level, ICICI crosses 830 level, ONGC crosses 930 level, SBI crosses 1330 level, BHARTI crosses 860 level, RCOM crosses 610 level and the strongest scrip of these turbulent days- RPL crosses 205, then the core strength in the market will established and will be reflected in the NIFTY. The markets are moving northwards only to sail to southwards with vigour. The FII selling will be over as the stocks fall below their acquisition level. Please see the older posts in which I discussed the same.
To blow once own trumpet, I clearly suggested to invest in technology, Pharma and FMCG in my earlier posts as they could reward the investors in future. Those who invested in FMGC might have experienced the taste of down fall and the rest are still in huge profits.
Those who can venture for longterm can now start cherry picking in Telecoms and the equipment sector. The great old days of infrastructure are far from sight but the malls with cash and carry business is bright. The smaller Indian banks with insurance tag will get good support from FIIs and foreign banks. The best safe bet is always the technology now with a new name - KPO services.
The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty touched without any resistance from the bulls.
Now the markets are on a free fall. The risk takers right from the 5100 level, 4800 level and the worst hit at 4600 level were wiped out as the uncertainties are looming large.
The markets got support only when the trend reversal happens at the front line stocks. The best things can be seen only when Reliance crosses 2440 level, ICICI crosses 830 level, ONGC crosses 930 level, SBI crosses 1330 level, BHARTI crosses 860 level, RCOM crosses 610 level and the strongest scrip of these turbulent days- RPL crosses 205, then the core strength in the market will established and will be reflected in the NIFTY. The markets are moving northwards only to sail to southwards with vigour. The FII selling will be over as the stocks fall below their acquisition level. Please see the older posts in which I discussed the same.
To blow once own trumpet, I clearly suggested to invest in technology, Pharma and FMCG in my earlier posts as they could reward the investors in future. Those who invested in FMGC might have experienced the taste of down fall and the rest are still in huge profits.
Those who can venture for longterm can now start cherry picking in Telecoms and the equipment sector. The great old days of infrastructure are far from sight but the malls with cash and carry business is bright. The smaller Indian banks with insurance tag will get good support from FIIs and foreign banks. The best safe bet is always the technology now with a new name - KPO services.
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