Whether we like it or not we have to accept the movement of the numbers in the stock prices. The recent developments have some positive impact on the liquidity front may give support to the bulls to absorb the selling pressure. The RBI rate came when the inflation is tapering south but the more concern is on the IIP numbers representing a torrid industrial growth.
We are now at the midst of the pullback rally that can easily take us to 3100-3150 level. As mentioned on Friday, the Index swings were violent due to ONGC, Bharti and RCOM results effect and RIL participated.
Now RIL has come out with 40% rise from the lows at 930 levels to 1395 levels. But this time the banks bellwether SBI waiting for some good news to participate. The up move can be expected only when it trades above 1330-1350 level. The ONGC may find resistance at 708-10 level and may settle below 625-640 level for some tome unless the crude surges above 85 dollars per barrel immediately. The NIFTY has resistance first at 2998-95 level and again at 3031-25 level and good above 2800-2796 level but the lower level support expected at 2751-39 level.
Sunday, November 02, 2008
They “R” there……
The FII problems are there and their economic conditions are not resolved but are not incremental in their nature. The FIIs pulled out of nearly 15000 crs. from our Indian equities but their appetite seems not over. The leveraged liquidity from the top economic counties like US,UK, Japan, Germany , France and other sound countries have indiscriminately irrespective of their investment value chased the stocks in emerging markets with a tag like BRICs. The domestic investors in those countries failed to think in contrary but accepted as a god sent opportunity, invested at very high levels. The scheme designed by FIIs run as per their plan, then started pulling their money from equities to PE placements in real estates and the other debt instruments. Now when every body noticed the fact then these FIIs resoted to sell in the exchanges to make the prices fall further to create a panic situation, add fuel to fire started chanting the basic principles of P/E ratios and the high valuations.
The real-estate investments will give multi bagger opportunities to these FIIs & the foreign companies after 5-6 years as they could grab the prime locations in the top metros of our nation. The economy will get its strength and the policy changes will help them to open shops & mall first in single brands and later in multi brands. The logic can be traced with simple arithmetic calculations like averages. Suppose a person with long-term vision and plan who could influence the markets can dictate the terms like what the FIIs are doing right now. The basic principle is same to every body but who follow and make others to follow the foot prints is the matter. The Person who bought DLF at IPO range at Rs600/- price, 200 shares cost Rs 1,20,000/- and sold 100 shares of DLF at 1100-1200 range can now buy 450-550 shares. So the average cost his total 600 (500+100) shares cost is 1,60,000/- only. The same is the case with RCOM, RIL, REL infra, Relcap and so on.... This can be spread to any number of blue-chip companies. The real loser is always the retail investor and the day trader who speculates with ones great mind and ability to satisfy the inherent ego and to make a foul cry on the circumstances that made his/her condition.
The policy actions are inducted to infuse liquidity but on the other hand we are making our selves fatten to be cut by these FIIs feast of selling at the higher level. In case the above discussed situation unfolds then our markets will stick to sub 2500 levels by using a branded glue stick for a longer time than anticipated. This will become a boom to the FIIs to sketch a different plan after some years when the memory of the retail investors fades.
The India Sovereign Fund concept will kill the spirit of the value discovery mechanism underlined in the open market rather than a system that functions on the controle of Government. The markets are increasingly getting the influences of the vested interests operating on a global scale. The political compulsions, populism measures for power rather than the long-term sustainable economic gains once controlled the policy decisions but now the global village being controlled by the president though every country is a sovereign by definition.
The long designed plans are not understood unless we view them with holistic approach to news headlines. The greed for global crude controle made Iraq devastation and surprisingly the heads of the nations talk on peace measures with reconstruction activity so is our civil Nuclear deal no less than a big business opportunity for a “stagflation” flagged world big economy. The doors of the Indian defense deals to global tenders are about to open as a competitive bidding process for better treasury gains. So is our port buildings and fast lane rail tracks….and so on…
Saturday, November 01, 2008
RBI cuts………
The Reserve Bank of India came forward to make a positive decision to cut the interest rates, CRR by 100 bps, repo rate by 50 bps. The RBI took the bold decision to cut CRR for injecting nearly Rs 1 Lakh crores in to the system.
This support to system can build confidence and ease the pressure on the stock markets due to the impending MF and FMPs redemption pressure. The Govt has recognized the slow down in the industrial activity especially in manufacturing sector. The agricultural commodity led industries like, Tractors & automobile, Textiles and Sugar sector season has begun but the liquidity crunch will impact the farmers that could be very costly while in an election year. The woes of reality sector due to the tight loan availability not only impact the builders but the big un-organised labourers and the related down the line industries. These steps will through a positive signal that the govt. at the helm is for the masses and willing to listen to the voices of the industry.
This support to system can build confidence and ease the pressure on the stock markets due to the impending MF and FMPs redemption pressure. The Govt has recognized the slow down in the industrial activity especially in manufacturing sector. The agricultural commodity led industries like, Tractors & automobile, Textiles and Sugar sector season has begun but the liquidity crunch will impact the farmers that could be very costly while in an election year. The woes of reality sector due to the tight loan availability not only impact the builders but the big un-organised labourers and the related down the line industries. These steps will through a positive signal that the govt. at the helm is for the masses and willing to listen to the voices of the industry.
An effort to remind once again….
An effort to remind once again….
In my earlier post titled… The BEST chance to overcome…dt 25-08-08…
The markets are consolidating at this stage where the Nifty made some anchor at 4200-4300 level.
The markets very likely to move further to 5100 level if it trades above 4500 level (with out touching 4080-4100 level) which is very crucial resistance to cross, other wise the markets likely to see one more deep correction that could take back first to 3500 level, later to 3180-3130 level, if worst case developed then to a level that was available at 2940-3040 range, came in the last week of July-06.
The July, 2006 levels may not come to Nifty as it undergone a series of changes in the composition, higher capitalization stocks like DLF, UNITECH, Power Grid, now the Rpower being included by 10th Sep-08.
The Indian markets are taking the earlier lead while falling and even in the rise, but the global crisis may not let it move in unidirectional up move. At the current valuations, the age old thumb rule method of identifying the stocks like P/E is still high at 18.25 as per NSE, when compared to the historic movements.
In my earlier post titled… The BEST chance to overcome…dt 25-08-08…
The markets are consolidating at this stage where the Nifty made some anchor at 4200-4300 level.
The markets very likely to move further to 5100 level if it trades above 4500 level (with out touching 4080-4100 level) which is very crucial resistance to cross, other wise the markets likely to see one more deep correction that could take back first to 3500 level, later to 3180-3130 level, if worst case developed then to a level that was available at 2940-3040 range, came in the last week of July-06.
The July, 2006 levels may not come to Nifty as it undergone a series of changes in the composition, higher capitalization stocks like DLF, UNITECH, Power Grid, now the Rpower being included by 10th Sep-08.
The Indian markets are taking the earlier lead while falling and even in the rise, but the global crisis may not let it move in unidirectional up move. At the current valuations, the age old thumb rule method of identifying the stocks like P/E is still high at 18.25 as per NSE, when compared to the historic movements.
Today the Economic Times covered with a title as ….. Nifty hit by poor choice of members (1 Nov, 2008, 0149 hrs IST,Apurv Gupta & Krishna Kant, ET Bureau)…..reads…..
The frequent changes in benchmark indexes and the inclusion of stocks like Reliance Power, Suzlon, RPL, Unitech and DLF while at the same time excluding large companies with a stable earnings and dividend record have brought the benchmark index down to its knees.
Experts say that in such situations, where the index has crashed due to an abnormal fall in certain stocks, it becomes meaningless for investors to look at the index levels or compare its ratios such as PE with indices in other countries, especially when some of the index constituents have no earnings at all to talk about……………….
………. For example, if we take the same constituents of the Nifty as at the beginning of 2006, the index would have been ruling higher by about 230 points from its current level. In fact, the Nifty would not have even fallen below 2929 points compared with its actual close on Wednesday at 2697 pts. Similarly, if the Nifty composition had been the same as in early 2007, the index would not have broken through the 2900-mark…………..
Friday, October 31, 2008
No fundamental change…
The markets are in troubled state as every body knows but now the governments coming forward to take part in rescue measures. This is offering a fill-up but don’t buy for the immediate gains of further 20% but for long term it could be one of the chances offered.
The markets are temporarily bottomed out by all means but the buying at the lower levels has not happened enough to hold the bottom. So either there should be a huge buying or the price shall make a journey above the resistance levels. The either case is pending.
The Nifty is good above 2600 as first support and it shall not trade below the 2480 level but the resistance at 2880-95 level then it will go to 3200 level. The markets will considered stabilized when the RIL is above 1380-85 level and the ONGC is above 785-91 level.
For today the Nifty is good for long so long it trades above 2716-25, the low shall not breach the support of 2622-18 level but the ONGC results effect and the RCOM results will through some guidance to the markets as the earnings pressure is mounting even though much was discounted.
The markets are temporarily bottomed out by all means but the buying at the lower levels has not happened enough to hold the bottom. So either there should be a huge buying or the price shall make a journey above the resistance levels. The either case is pending.
The Nifty is good above 2600 as first support and it shall not trade below the 2480 level but the resistance at 2880-95 level then it will go to 3200 level. The markets will considered stabilized when the RIL is above 1380-85 level and the ONGC is above 785-91 level.
For today the Nifty is good for long so long it trades above 2716-25, the low shall not breach the support of 2622-18 level but the ONGC results effect and the RCOM results will through some guidance to the markets as the earnings pressure is mounting even though much was discounted.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Sunday, October 26, 2008
The strength of FIIs………
The financial strength of FIIs was shown on the Dalal Street for the last 20 trading sessions. The bloggers, the analysts and the domestic fund managers are kept on telling that there is nothing wrong with our economy. The need of the hour and the fact at this point in time is the global sentiment and the price erosion. The stock prices will take their course based on the fundamental strength of the economy and the ability to tap the available resource by the corporate sector.
The technicals can be collaborated after the mayhem but very few can tell the exact extent and the length of time to complete a cycle of buying or selling. Like the natural disaster which can be sensed, predicted but cannot be controlled, the same way the stock market movement that based on the instant psychology of the market participants. It cannot be controlled but can be discussed and argued after wards. The best thing is to avert the damage is kept away from it.
The cracking signs are known to many, when the Nifty breached the 4200 level one can get out of the delivery one more chance when the Nifty fallen below 3930-3860 level. Now many investors were trapped and eager to sell now, a situation known to many and willing to take a call to exit but the opportunity is closed.
The Stock market investment is nothing but prudent thinking and quick decision making but not confused hasty management of the worsen situation.
The technicals can be collaborated after the mayhem but very few can tell the exact extent and the length of time to complete a cycle of buying or selling. Like the natural disaster which can be sensed, predicted but cannot be controlled, the same way the stock market movement that based on the instant psychology of the market participants. It cannot be controlled but can be discussed and argued after wards. The best thing is to avert the damage is kept away from it.
The cracking signs are known to many, when the Nifty breached the 4200 level one can get out of the delivery one more chance when the Nifty fallen below 3930-3860 level. Now many investors were trapped and eager to sell now, a situation known to many and willing to take a call to exit but the opportunity is closed.
The Stock market investment is nothing but prudent thinking and quick decision making but not confused hasty management of the worsen situation.
The un-mind FULL rampage
The markets world over reeling under severe damage and debris of distress due to the financial tsunami. There is mercy missions for the rescue help to save affected with humanity but the investors are not getting at least the much required first aid to save from collapse on death bed. The regulators are worrying for the past mistakes committed rather than the presence of mind to avert extent of the damage.There is n-number of people ventured to buy at lower levels as they are right by all reasons except the market commandments.
It is not the LOWEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to BUY is very important.
It is not the LOWEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to BUY is very important.
Friday, October 24, 2008
NO way….
The FII are not interested to reverse their positions in India. The short selling by borrowing will open a new window of opportunity in the financial sector of lending and borrowing the shares from our MFs and DIIs. The financial reforms will be done with this bitter experience likely to provide a congenial environment that encourages the local money flow to capital markets. The reports suggest that 2% of Indians are investing and then imagine this be 10% in next 5 years, and the Index levels. But for now the markets are in full FII selling grip, there was no bad news except their bad financial conditions.
The bleeding in the Asian markets continuing and we can be no exception for today. Unless the FIIs agree to reverse their positions, the situation can see no light for next one month. The over done of FIIs shows their nature of investment style and the good part is to place some restrictions on their distress selling to curb this kind of mayhem in markets. The emerging markets are by nature young and can not take the load in the cases of crisis of the present nature.
The FII investment guidelines shall carry a clause that they shall invest for long term at least for 5 years and they shall not press the selling button for not more than 10% their holding thorough open market operations, can resort for off market bulk deals.
The bleeding in the Asian markets continuing and we can be no exception for today. Unless the FIIs agree to reverse their positions, the situation can see no light for next one month. The over done of FIIs shows their nature of investment style and the good part is to place some restrictions on their distress selling to curb this kind of mayhem in markets. The emerging markets are by nature young and can not take the load in the cases of crisis of the present nature.
The FII investment guidelines shall carry a clause that they shall invest for long term at least for 5 years and they shall not press the selling button for not more than 10% their holding thorough open market operations, can resort for off market bulk deals.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Just remember…...
The history is not far way to make it difficult to recollect the past happening happened on the Indian bourses just before the crash. The challenge is to accept the reality and live with the situation offered or created. The present situation in the market was expected, to touch this 2900 level well in advance and was published in my 25th August posting.
The Nifty index level was simply a number to quote but the timing of buying stocks never depend on the index level unless the choice falls on index basket. The fall of index will help us to identify more blue chips as there was an opportunity opened to invest for next two years perspective. The trader any way live for the moment to day swing and grossly depend on the price fluctuation derived from the demand and supply but the investor is entirely a different entity, wait for the opportunity and jump to grab it.
So investor can start buy in stocks whose economic cycle is in the up swing or likely to get that advantage. Now the markets are almost bottomed out. I used to cry the same way I am doing now when the market topped at 6200 level and advised the investors to first sell the holdings and with more emphasis not to buy at that level. Now am just reversing the statement but the cry is with same volume.
Please go to the budget allocations and try to take advantage of the benefits from the excise & customs reductions that immensely benefit the companies. The Indian economy is robust and likely to take advantage of the global crisis in its favour, so try to enjoy the fall from these level instead of developing fear. The earlier article suggested for those who already invested.
The Nifty index level was simply a number to quote but the timing of buying stocks never depend on the index level unless the choice falls on index basket. The fall of index will help us to identify more blue chips as there was an opportunity opened to invest for next two years perspective. The trader any way live for the moment to day swing and grossly depend on the price fluctuation derived from the demand and supply but the investor is entirely a different entity, wait for the opportunity and jump to grab it.
So investor can start buy in stocks whose economic cycle is in the up swing or likely to get that advantage. Now the markets are almost bottomed out. I used to cry the same way I am doing now when the market topped at 6200 level and advised the investors to first sell the holdings and with more emphasis not to buy at that level. Now am just reversing the statement but the cry is with same volume.
Please go to the budget allocations and try to take advantage of the benefits from the excise & customs reductions that immensely benefit the companies. The Indian economy is robust and likely to take advantage of the global crisis in its favour, so try to enjoy the fall from these level instead of developing fear. The earlier article suggested for those who already invested.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
The mercy at the bottom…
The markets were spared at the bottom as the stocks still holding above the earlier lows when it registered two days back. The special treatment of leveling the levels of SBI to day happened but the stock is still in bulls grip. The FMCG stocks are the ones stood against the bear hammering.
The early statement of markets bottomed out can be confirmed incase our Nifty crosses the immediate resistance at 3255-50 level and the low shall be above 3181 is good, even 3145 is also OK. The Reliance and the other majors like LT, BHEL, HDFC and the tech majors are exhibiting a better bottom for now. So tomorrow a rally of 100 points at Nifty can through the much required relief at the earliest.
The redemption pressure is mounting as day’s passes and the negative news adding fuel to fire. So wait and watch till the worst crystallizes as a solid foundation to the markets at the bottom before jumping for grabbing the mouth watering prices of the blue chips.
The early statement of markets bottomed out can be confirmed incase our Nifty crosses the immediate resistance at 3255-50 level and the low shall be above 3181 is good, even 3145 is also OK. The Reliance and the other majors like LT, BHEL, HDFC and the tech majors are exhibiting a better bottom for now. So tomorrow a rally of 100 points at Nifty can through the much required relief at the earliest.
The redemption pressure is mounting as day’s passes and the negative news adding fuel to fire. So wait and watch till the worst crystallizes as a solid foundation to the markets at the bottom before jumping for grabbing the mouth watering prices of the blue chips.
No longs ….
The trades are now very much confining to intraday but no longs till markets cross the 3350-3400 decisively on Nifty.
The markets are dwindling to positive and negative news as the case may be but won’t go any where from here. The regular readers will find the piece of news about the 20-20 percent move.
This time the markets met the final leg of fall in case it goes down, it will be confined to the worst scenario case to 2630-80 level that to after a consolidation of 40-50 trading days.
The economic activity will be centered around the infra structure building like ports, air ports and SEZs. The mining activity will take place heavily in 2010 onwards. But for now the projects initiated like power and distribution companies will do well in coming months along with the cable manufacturers.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long it trades above 3130-3120 level. The US and other Asian markets red will force us to open in red but no fresh shors are advised at this point. The markets will get short covering above 3280 level and will add at least150 points. The Reliance above 1460-80 level will spur the short covering activity until it reaches 1680 level, then the market is ripe for fresh shorts that will give safety and high returns with out nightmares.
The markets are dwindling to positive and negative news as the case may be but won’t go any where from here. The regular readers will find the piece of news about the 20-20 percent move.
This time the markets met the final leg of fall in case it goes down, it will be confined to the worst scenario case to 2630-80 level that to after a consolidation of 40-50 trading days.
The economic activity will be centered around the infra structure building like ports, air ports and SEZs. The mining activity will take place heavily in 2010 onwards. But for now the projects initiated like power and distribution companies will do well in coming months along with the cable manufacturers.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long it trades above 3130-3120 level. The US and other Asian markets red will force us to open in red but no fresh shors are advised at this point. The markets will get short covering above 3280 level and will add at least150 points. The Reliance above 1460-80 level will spur the short covering activity until it reaches 1680 level, then the market is ripe for fresh shorts that will give safety and high returns with out nightmares.
Monday, October 20, 2008
The Repo rate cut effect…
The RBI has taken a bold step to reduce the Repo rate by 100 basis points. The markets would have welcomed other wise by 500 points on the announcement itself but failed to hold the gains made during the trading hours.
The markets are now likely to move up from these levels in case if the global indices won’t take severe knock. The only concern at this point is the corporate performance. The results announced till date are not bothering but the fear of future is threatening the growth in advancement of the Indices as a whole.
The Nifty draggers like tech lot bounced with vengeance and RIL got enough support at the lower level except DLF. The ONGC, BHEL, Unitech and DLF may try to boost the Nifty to cross the 3350 level which is very crucial.
The markets are now likely to move up from these levels in case if the global indices won’t take severe knock. The only concern at this point is the corporate performance. The results announced till date are not bothering but the fear of future is threatening the growth in advancement of the Indices as a whole.
The Nifty draggers like tech lot bounced with vengeance and RIL got enough support at the lower level except DLF. The ONGC, BHEL, Unitech and DLF may try to boost the Nifty to cross the 3350 level which is very crucial.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Still far away but…….
The Indian markets were in deep trouble at the face of it. The Nifty was deep in red and far away from the near term support. The brutal damage was done from the heavy weights like RIL, RPL, ONGC, RCOM and reality & Infra majors like DLF, UNITECH, L T and Rel Infra apart from the metal sector as a lot. The banking sector stood against the onslaught of Bear hammering in spite of the global financial turmoil. The fresh short positions in the beaten down sectors will be very dangerous as they can get trapped easily.
Now the Nifty will get fresh lease of life only when it trades above 3350 and the first batch of strong resistance points starts from 3600-3620 level.
The RIL has to cross the resistance at 1550 and trade above 1420 at least for two trading days. The ONGC has to cross and trade above 850 level.
The reality sector majors except UNITECH are exhibiting some bargain hunting buying in DLF, IB Real estate and in GMR infra.
The long term buyers can start buying the blue chips irrespective of their price and the fear of loss. The Indian economy is continued to do well despite the global slow down. At this point it looks like the emerging new age world economy is shrugging off the traditional & old business icons and paving for a robust vibrant economy.
Now the Nifty will get fresh lease of life only when it trades above 3350 and the first batch of strong resistance points starts from 3600-3620 level.
The RIL has to cross the resistance at 1550 and trade above 1420 at least for two trading days. The ONGC has to cross and trade above 850 level.
The reality sector majors except UNITECH are exhibiting some bargain hunting buying in DLF, IB Real estate and in GMR infra.
The long term buyers can start buying the blue chips irrespective of their price and the fear of loss. The Indian economy is continued to do well despite the global slow down. At this point it looks like the emerging new age world economy is shrugging off the traditional & old business icons and paving for a robust vibrant economy.
The Projections & Targets…..
The technical analysts try to provide the targets for both the Index and for the selected stocks. They offer normally to retail investors much later than they were circulated among the dedicated. The beautiful projections enable the retail investor to go for loans and the threats of further fall forces them to liquidate their positions in distress.
These unfortunate situations always happen on both the extremes of the stock market movements. The seasoned investors are also prey to these kinds of statements because of the GREED & FEAR. I request the investors to refrain from these kinds of emotional swings while investing and exiting.
Those who look for a multi-bagger opportunity, the markets are now opening the doors. Instead of investing at the fag end of the rally and go bust in down turn, it is prudent to provide some time to conduct research to identify the sectors that out perform the Index in future. In case you need to get some guidance over the sectoral out performance and promising sector of tomorrow please go to the older posts.
The economic conditions have changed but the bright future for the growth sectors are in tact. So it is very important to invest & maintain in stock from a promising sector portfolio to make a Multibagger rather than simply picking a stock from the lot.
These unfortunate situations always happen on both the extremes of the stock market movements. The seasoned investors are also prey to these kinds of statements because of the GREED & FEAR. I request the investors to refrain from these kinds of emotional swings while investing and exiting.
Those who look for a multi-bagger opportunity, the markets are now opening the doors. Instead of investing at the fag end of the rally and go bust in down turn, it is prudent to provide some time to conduct research to identify the sectors that out perform the Index in future. In case you need to get some guidance over the sectoral out performance and promising sector of tomorrow please go to the older posts.
The economic conditions have changed but the bright future for the growth sectors are in tact. So it is very important to invest & maintain in stock from a promising sector portfolio to make a Multibagger rather than simply picking a stock from the lot.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
The trimmed excesses….
The markets are bound to rise as they fell. This is a natural phenomena inevitably happens whether some body likes or not.
The concern at this hour is “how fast and by what time?”. This is the common question lingering in every investors mind. Now just imagine some body met with an accident and was admitted in a hospital, placed in intensive care. Then the question will be of What?. Whether it is survival or surprise on the happening?. Then every body will accept with joy that the patient is alive and will be discharged soon after surgery and due care. The same situation is happened to the financial markets across the globe, all are hospitalized, some are in ICU, surviving on Govt. intervention and some are in specialists care.
So my sincere request to investors is to for get reading the daily news of financial happening unless you prefer to be a day/swing trader. The best thing is keep averaging to the limit some body can, enjoy dreaming the golden days that are being manifested.
The only trouble with the recent young investors is the very nature demanding the high valuations that were there and as a matter of fact they paid for the boom. Now the situation is quiet different, the excess valuations of high P/E valuations above 50 were gone and the realist levels of 9-14 are ruling.
So adjust to the reality and accept the truth, keep on investing in companies that delivered high rate of growth over 3-4 years.
The concern at this hour is “how fast and by what time?”. This is the common question lingering in every investors mind. Now just imagine some body met with an accident and was admitted in a hospital, placed in intensive care. Then the question will be of What?. Whether it is survival or surprise on the happening?. Then every body will accept with joy that the patient is alive and will be discharged soon after surgery and due care. The same situation is happened to the financial markets across the globe, all are hospitalized, some are in ICU, surviving on Govt. intervention and some are in specialists care.
So my sincere request to investors is to for get reading the daily news of financial happening unless you prefer to be a day/swing trader. The best thing is keep averaging to the limit some body can, enjoy dreaming the golden days that are being manifested.
The only trouble with the recent young investors is the very nature demanding the high valuations that were there and as a matter of fact they paid for the boom. Now the situation is quiet different, the excess valuations of high P/E valuations above 50 were gone and the realist levels of 9-14 are ruling.
So adjust to the reality and accept the truth, keep on investing in companies that delivered high rate of growth over 3-4 years.
Friday, October 17, 2008
A ray of hope….
I think that the Indian markets are very close to bottom out for time being at least. The stocks are showing resilience to move down in-spite of the best efforts by the Bears.
As posted yesterday the infrastructure stocks are finding buyers at the lower levels. There was a clear hope down the line for next two years we are likely to manage and may cross the previous highs based on our internal consumption despite of the global turmoil that we see now.
The crude is falling, metals plummet gives a scope to ease the fall in inflation. The central govt. likely to announce more investor friendly investments norms and the FII inflow will start coming back to India after Jan-09.
But for now the markets yester day recovered on the back of short covering and some kind of buying at the bottom. The worst is not over as the stocks like HUL, LT, BHEL, HDFC, HDFC Bank, SBI and Bharti have not tasted the Bear beating. So Nifty likely to see some lower levels but it won’t hurt as the most already lost their value.
The Nifty likely to cross the 3660 level and may touch the resistance at 3930-3885 level in the coming months. The next fall will complete the bear hammering and the Bulls will take charge. At this time it looks like a joke as it was looked impossible to see a downward move when the indices climbing from 5800 to 6200 level.
The retail investors always FIXED ON THE WRONG SIDE, because of the PRICE LURING while moving up and FEAR OF LOSS while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE that is IMPORTANT to buy a STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.
As posted yesterday the infrastructure stocks are finding buyers at the lower levels. There was a clear hope down the line for next two years we are likely to manage and may cross the previous highs based on our internal consumption despite of the global turmoil that we see now.
The crude is falling, metals plummet gives a scope to ease the fall in inflation. The central govt. likely to announce more investor friendly investments norms and the FII inflow will start coming back to India after Jan-09.
But for now the markets yester day recovered on the back of short covering and some kind of buying at the bottom. The worst is not over as the stocks like HUL, LT, BHEL, HDFC, HDFC Bank, SBI and Bharti have not tasted the Bear beating. So Nifty likely to see some lower levels but it won’t hurt as the most already lost their value.
The Nifty likely to cross the 3660 level and may touch the resistance at 3930-3885 level in the coming months. The next fall will complete the bear hammering and the Bulls will take charge. At this time it looks like a joke as it was looked impossible to see a downward move when the indices climbing from 5800 to 6200 level.
The retail investors always FIXED ON THE WRONG SIDE, because of the PRICE LURING while moving up and FEAR OF LOSS while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE that is IMPORTANT to buy a STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
The worrying worries….
The situation at India is not worsen but accepting the troubles of the big brother-US. The markets are adjusting to the ground realities whether we like it or not.
The situation at India is also worsening due the redemption pressure as the markets are plunging day after day with out a relief.
The Nifty has been testing its bottom support as it deeper than the expectations of the most. As discussed yester day, the Nifty immediate support at 3365-80 was taken out yesterday and the closing was much below the level. The Indian markets are used to follow the US and other markets when they are in bull mode but now going a head while in down turn.
The markets will be considered stabilized when the Reliance high crosses 1750 and closes above 1685 level. The earlier discussed level to ONGC is still valid-it has to cross the 1020 level and trade above 960 levels to see the down trend halted. The Nifty has to cross the 3680 level to see the down turn put a halt. The real estate and the infra structure stocks are being in accumulation mode even at this disparate situation.
The stocks like Rel Cap and HDFC are being beaten down and will be continued due to their exposure to Mutual funds business, now a drag to pull up.
The situation at India is also worsening due the redemption pressure as the markets are plunging day after day with out a relief.
The Nifty has been testing its bottom support as it deeper than the expectations of the most. As discussed yester day, the Nifty immediate support at 3365-80 was taken out yesterday and the closing was much below the level. The Indian markets are used to follow the US and other markets when they are in bull mode but now going a head while in down turn.
The markets will be considered stabilized when the Reliance high crosses 1750 and closes above 1685 level. The earlier discussed level to ONGC is still valid-it has to cross the 1020 level and trade above 960 levels to see the down trend halted. The Nifty has to cross the 3680 level to see the down turn put a halt. The real estate and the infra structure stocks are being in accumulation mode even at this disparate situation.
The stocks like Rel Cap and HDFC are being beaten down and will be continued due to their exposure to Mutual funds business, now a drag to pull up.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The doubts in …..
The markets were in doubt about the concerns in the liquidity situation and the redemption pressure. Till date every body said they are sitting in cash and can grab the opportunity but the situations changed to a different dimension- CASH CRUNCH. The global situation for now came to a halt but the internal situation is brewing to worse.
The markets got resistance as expected yesterday at 3640-60 range, the high touched at 3648.25. Now the immediate support was at 3365-80 level on the down side and Nifty has to trade above 3650 level to see the down trend in our markets to take a halt.
The last night US markets and now the Asian markets are shedding the gain from the rally experienced two days back. The situation here can no different from them. The NBFCs are selling shares pledged; the FIIs are continuous to enjoy selling at this distressed levels may cap the up side rally.
The Nifty has to trade above 3570 levels for a buying, but the resistance was at 3534-38 level. The supports existed at 3460 level which may not hold but the 3441-33 level may come to rescue.
The markets got resistance as expected yesterday at 3640-60 range, the high touched at 3648.25. Now the immediate support was at 3365-80 level on the down side and Nifty has to trade above 3650 level to see the down trend in our markets to take a halt.
The last night US markets and now the Asian markets are shedding the gain from the rally experienced two days back. The situation here can no different from them. The NBFCs are selling shares pledged; the FIIs are continuous to enjoy selling at this distressed levels may cap the up side rally.
The Nifty has to trade above 3570 levels for a buying, but the resistance was at 3534-38 level. The supports existed at 3460 level which may not hold but the 3441-33 level may come to rescue.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Is the worst is over?
The global financial jitters are over as the govt. intervention is timely and enough to bail out the ailing institutions.
The markets across the globe are in green and enjoying the investor support for the blue-chip stocks. The Indian markets are also likely to continue to enjoy the up move.
Now the crude oil is down, inflation is receding the equities will offer good returns to investors from here. But the markets may fall once again after the shorts are covered and the move to big leap will be originated from 3000-2900 level.
This up move may take the Nifty to 3660-40 level as the Reliance, ONGC, RPL, LT and HDFC are not fully participated.
The markets across the globe are in green and enjoying the investor support for the blue-chip stocks. The Indian markets are also likely to continue to enjoy the up move.
Now the crude oil is down, inflation is receding the equities will offer good returns to investors from here. But the markets may fall once again after the shorts are covered and the move to big leap will be originated from 3000-2900 level.
This up move may take the Nifty to 3660-40 level as the Reliance, ONGC, RPL, LT and HDFC are not fully participated.
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