The India’s top market cap leader, index mover Reliance is going to announces is quarterly results. The markets are waiting for the RIL results and the Nifty may swing in tune with the scrip.
The top notable companies that are going to announce the results are RPL, RNRL, Rel infra, Rpower, HDFC bank, LIC housing, SKF, Idea Zee news and many more…
The Nifty is good above 3381 and weak below 3356 level. The RIL results influence the market trend. The Nifty become weak if it trades below 3320 level will likely to touch 3265 and next at 3229-31 level. The second support level will provide reasonable bounce from 3211-18 level to Nifty.
The RIL is good above 1735 and weak below 1715 may get support at1684 level, once it falls below 1665 will get support at 1615-30 range.
The banking major SBI and ICICI are facing Bear heat. The SBI is weak and good support is at 1180-65 level. The ICICI may get support from 376-79 level. This will gain strength only when it crosses the immediate resistance at 416-18.
The Relcap is exhibiting good support at 500 level and will gain strength above 521 level and weak below 511-13 level. It has bounced from the support at 491 level when it touched 495 low now holding above 500. In case it falls below 495 then the support at 472-467 level.
The HDFC bank is facing resistance at 1100 level and the support at 1040 level. The critical juncture is at 1085-1067 range.Please watch out for break-out in SAIL, RCOM, United Spirits.The reality sector major is getting support at 225 level and the HDIL at 124 level.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
The cut is developing…..
The Nifty is carrying loads of wait on long side despite of global corrections; it could keep the head above deep waters for a better sailing. The major news that dampened the sentiment is the exclusion list of 50 companies from the FO segment from June-09.
In the todays trade the tech majors did not see a deep cut but the HCL tech, NIIT, NIIT Ltd and Rolta lost the ground by10% and more. The mid cap reality sector stocks, media and software stocks that face the threat of exclusion lost nearly 10%.The metals corrected steeply, especially Tata Steel and Ster. The major up moves seen in the smaller names but the Tata Elexi, Bajaj Holdings, LIC housing, Suzlon and Wockpharma deserve worth mentioning.
The up move was capped at this juncture unless the markets get good going tomorrow above 3415-18 level. The Reliance is saving the fall, weak below 1715 level and is good above 1735 but a rally is not visible. The new in RPOWER triggered a rally in the stock but its parent company REL infra made a consolidation but it well rally only if it could stay above 693 levels. The banking stocks in anticipation of the rate cut rallied now easing on the news and may correct steeply if the SBI fails to hold above 1256 level. So tomorrow is crucial for our markets and the global news holds the key.
In the todays trade the tech majors did not see a deep cut but the HCL tech, NIIT, NIIT Ltd and Rolta lost the ground by10% and more. The mid cap reality sector stocks, media and software stocks that face the threat of exclusion lost nearly 10%.The metals corrected steeply, especially Tata Steel and Ster. The major up moves seen in the smaller names but the Tata Elexi, Bajaj Holdings, LIC housing, Suzlon and Wockpharma deserve worth mentioning.
The up move was capped at this juncture unless the markets get good going tomorrow above 3415-18 level. The Reliance is saving the fall, weak below 1715 level and is good above 1735 but a rally is not visible. The new in RPOWER triggered a rally in the stock but its parent company REL infra made a consolidation but it well rally only if it could stay above 693 levels. The banking stocks in anticipation of the rate cut rallied now easing on the news and may correct steeply if the SBI fails to hold above 1256 level. So tomorrow is crucial for our markets and the global news holds the key.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
The fall stopped….
The markets could recover due to RIL, Bharti, ONGC, HDFC, HDFC bank and DLF could place hurdles for a bear run across the board. The markets could recover in the mid session to trade in green but failed to hold the gains in the late session due to profit booking.
The Following scrips covered in my morning
posting:
ICICIBANK 416.35 391.30 398.75
RIL 1733.65 1684.70 1706.10
REL infra 689.50 662 673.85
Rel Cap 522.85 495 507
Nifty 3414.70 3309.35 3365.30
The RED spreads….
The results of TCS are good and the 1:1 bonus is not going to cheer the street as the steep sell off in the US and the Asian markets with a cut more than 3%.
The best days of AXIS banks are yet to come but the Naik resignation will have a deep cut despite the good numbers. The technology major Infosys will starts its southward journey from here to touch 1269-71 level and the bounce is expected for 1211-16.
The suggested levels in my previous posts valid and the bounce bank will happen from such levels. The Nifty will face tough resistance at 3411 level for the time being. The immediate support for today is at 3313-16 and the second support from where a serious bounce expected is at 3265-71 level. This will become a serious cut once it falls below 3250 level.
The Reliance see a deep cut below 1718-21 level and the support for this day at 1665 and at 1654-51 level.
The positive side of yesterday move of REL Infra may find support at 659-61 level and at 649-51 level, below this level serious.
The Relcap is weak below 536 and likely to go below 500 to rest at 496-93 level. The ICICI is also weak below 441-39 level and likely to touch 411 and at 403 the supports are existing but the scrip will dip below 400 and bounce is expected from 381-78 level.
The best days of AXIS banks are yet to come but the Naik resignation will have a deep cut despite the good numbers. The technology major Infosys will starts its southward journey from here to touch 1269-71 level and the bounce is expected for 1211-16.
The suggested levels in my previous posts valid and the bounce bank will happen from such levels. The Nifty will face tough resistance at 3411 level for the time being. The immediate support for today is at 3313-16 and the second support from where a serious bounce expected is at 3265-71 level. This will become a serious cut once it falls below 3250 level.
The Reliance see a deep cut below 1718-21 level and the support for this day at 1665 and at 1654-51 level.
The positive side of yesterday move of REL Infra may find support at 659-61 level and at 649-51 level, below this level serious.
The Relcap is weak below 536 and likely to go below 500 to rest at 496-93 level. The ICICI is also weak below 441-39 level and likely to touch 411 and at 403 the supports are existing but the scrip will dip below 400 and bounce is expected from 381-78 level.
Monday, April 20, 2009
The correction is good….
The correction in the markets is good for the long term investors. The rally was sharp and very few could venture to grab the opportunity. The world economic situation has not improved but the hope that could build on the extreme pessimism when Dow touched the 25 year low below 700 levels. Now such an extreme situation could suddenly emerge as a rally over that lasted for more than 6 consecutive weeks to create a history in US that was not happened in the past 60 years. The strength of extremism of pessimism made a Bear trap and now it can be gauzed with this heavy short covering lead Bull grip over the markets across the globe.
The cool off signs are emerging in all the markets and they are now enjoying the vacation at higher level as consolidation. So our Nifty could again touch 3080-3020 level due to our domestic issues. The confusion over the new government formation gets accelerated as the “third front” will emerge from political turbulence as the polling phases get closer to end by May second week. The tussle for the premier hot seat, the FM Budget and June end quarterly results will clearly provide the right direction to our markets.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long as it trades above 3360 level. The Bulls will gain strength above 3426-35 level but will yield to selling pressure incase Nifty fails to cross 3411-09 initial resistance. The high volatility may reduce and may get support at 3313-11 level, the second support will be at 3280-88 level. The Asian markets are flat with negative bias.
The counters that lost the charm are The RIL and ONGC. The RIL is weak below 1730 and face serious resistance at 1757-1751 level. The RIL will get support at 1665-67.
The ICICI bank is strong above 444-45 level but will become weak below 435 to touch 419-22 support level.
The Rel cap now facing bear pressure gets resistance at 551-49 range and likely to touch 480-475 range. For today it may get support at 491-93 level.
The SBI is showing good support at bottom till yesterday evening failed to hold the ground above 1306-09 level may get support at 1259-56 if it fails trade to trade above 1320 level.
The Rel Infra face resistance at 685-83 level and may find support at 621-23 once it trades below 659-61 level.
The DLF received a series of bottom support at 222-226 level for 4 trading sessions may once again get support.
The cool off signs are emerging in all the markets and they are now enjoying the vacation at higher level as consolidation. So our Nifty could again touch 3080-3020 level due to our domestic issues. The confusion over the new government formation gets accelerated as the “third front” will emerge from political turbulence as the polling phases get closer to end by May second week. The tussle for the premier hot seat, the FM Budget and June end quarterly results will clearly provide the right direction to our markets.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long as it trades above 3360 level. The Bulls will gain strength above 3426-35 level but will yield to selling pressure incase Nifty fails to cross 3411-09 initial resistance. The high volatility may reduce and may get support at 3313-11 level, the second support will be at 3280-88 level. The Asian markets are flat with negative bias.
The counters that lost the charm are The RIL and ONGC. The RIL is weak below 1730 and face serious resistance at 1757-1751 level. The RIL will get support at 1665-67.
The ICICI bank is strong above 444-45 level but will become weak below 435 to touch 419-22 support level.
The Rel cap now facing bear pressure gets resistance at 551-49 range and likely to touch 480-475 range. For today it may get support at 491-93 level.
The SBI is showing good support at bottom till yesterday evening failed to hold the ground above 1306-09 level may get support at 1259-56 if it fails trade to trade above 1320 level.
The Rel Infra face resistance at 685-83 level and may find support at 621-23 once it trades below 659-61 level.
The DLF received a series of bottom support at 222-226 level for 4 trading sessions may once again get support.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Now the time to wait……
The markets are under bull grip with out any doubt. People find different jargons to situations but the ultimate goal in market participation is to make money. The serious investor or the trend follower simple finds way to adjust in the right slot to take the pie worth deserving.
The strength of markets at the bottom and the building process was so excellent that the advancement was like creeping. The retail investors were skeptical to participate in the pessimistic environment. This provided a god sent opportunity to Bull operators to scale to touch new highs. The history is writing on the wall.
The Nifty rallied from 2539 on 6th March to 3511 on 16th April, in 24 trading sessions it rallied nearly 970 points with out any serious set backs.
The fall on 30the was really serious to cover but covered in style to trap the bears. The front line stocks like REL Infra, Rel cap, SBI, Axis bank, RIL LT and many more rose by 50% as the short sellers were seriously trapped. The classic example of retail short covering at the fag end of the day on “Infosys results-15th April” triggered rallyand effortlessly stocks fell on the next day itself.
Now the challenge is to find out the emerging trend. There some stocks that emerged as Bullish in the last 3-4 tradings and the earlier front runners taking a pause in the run up. The stocks like HUL, ITC, Wipro, LT, SBI, Axis bank and to some extent Bharti are exhibiting bullishness.
The RIL, ONGC, GAIL, Rel Infra, R-power, NTPC, DLF, HDIL, T motors, TCS, United spirits and metal majors seems to be buckle to bear pressure.
The short covering stretch can be observed in BHEL, Maruti, T-power and in United Spirits.
The strength of markets at the bottom and the building process was so excellent that the advancement was like creeping. The retail investors were skeptical to participate in the pessimistic environment. This provided a god sent opportunity to Bull operators to scale to touch new highs. The history is writing on the wall.
The Nifty rallied from 2539 on 6th March to 3511 on 16th April, in 24 trading sessions it rallied nearly 970 points with out any serious set backs.
The fall on 30the was really serious to cover but covered in style to trap the bears. The front line stocks like REL Infra, Rel cap, SBI, Axis bank, RIL LT and many more rose by 50% as the short sellers were seriously trapped. The classic example of retail short covering at the fag end of the day on “Infosys results-15th April” triggered rallyand effortlessly stocks fell on the next day itself.
Now the challenge is to find out the emerging trend. There some stocks that emerged as Bullish in the last 3-4 tradings and the earlier front runners taking a pause in the run up. The stocks like HUL, ITC, Wipro, LT, SBI, Axis bank and to some extent Bharti are exhibiting bullishness.
The RIL, ONGC, GAIL, Rel Infra, R-power, NTPC, DLF, HDIL, T motors, TCS, United spirits and metal majors seems to be buckle to bear pressure.
The short covering stretch can be observed in BHEL, Maruti, T-power and in United Spirits.
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Spectacular grip……
The Bulls hold the spectacular grip over the markets and saved the day with de-coupling with the rest of the world. The journey calculators went on counting the points added from the low to the highest but the markets interested to make a new high each time and every time for the last one month.
The correction happened only one day and the rest is internal and intraday. The side lined waiting money woke-up and starts chasing the stocks for now as if we are in a run-up Bull market. The RIIL has again made a 40% gain and the sugar stocks rallied by 15-20%.
The SGX Nifty suggests that the Asian markets are in green with Hang Sang by 1.35% and the Nikkei up by 1.8% and we are likely to open above 3400 with 50-60 points gap up. As suggested in my earlier the Nifty will take a breather here (………The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.)
The Nifty has good support at 3050 level and very good support at 2960-50 level. The markets rallied enough to cross the hurdles at 3135 and 3280 level. So the fall will become weak and bearish only when Nifty trades below 3000 level. The corrections will be stock specific and the overall markets are in higher orbit.
The Nifty has resistance at 3423 level and the support at 3311-09 and at 3273-71 level.
The Reliance rallied yesterday beyond expectation 1763 and the selling may come at 1787 level. The bottom support will come for today at 1706 and at 1695-91 level. The counter will become weak below 1693 level.
The bear hug counters like BHEL will become very weak below 1495 and it will get short covering if at all only above 1540 level. The other weak counter is Bharti will become weak below 620 level is facing resistance at 670 level. India bulls realest may see some selling pressure above 137-39 level and Rolta will face resistance to cross Rs75-77.
The counters like ICICI which went up on low activity may run up to 393 and to 403-06 level so long it trades above 373 level. It will become weak below 368 level.
The Rel Infra is good above 616 to touch 660 level but will become weak below 603 level. In case the stock shall not trades below 593 will see selling pressure from short sellers and the bull un-winding will accelerate for every 5 rupee fall.
The correction happened only one day and the rest is internal and intraday. The side lined waiting money woke-up and starts chasing the stocks for now as if we are in a run-up Bull market. The RIIL has again made a 40% gain and the sugar stocks rallied by 15-20%.
The SGX Nifty suggests that the Asian markets are in green with Hang Sang by 1.35% and the Nikkei up by 1.8% and we are likely to open above 3400 with 50-60 points gap up. As suggested in my earlier the Nifty will take a breather here (………The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.)
The Nifty has good support at 3050 level and very good support at 2960-50 level. The markets rallied enough to cross the hurdles at 3135 and 3280 level. So the fall will become weak and bearish only when Nifty trades below 3000 level. The corrections will be stock specific and the overall markets are in higher orbit.
The Nifty has resistance at 3423 level and the support at 3311-09 and at 3273-71 level.
The Reliance rallied yesterday beyond expectation 1763 and the selling may come at 1787 level. The bottom support will come for today at 1706 and at 1695-91 level. The counter will become weak below 1693 level.
The bear hug counters like BHEL will become very weak below 1495 and it will get short covering if at all only above 1540 level. The other weak counter is Bharti will become weak below 620 level is facing resistance at 670 level. India bulls realest may see some selling pressure above 137-39 level and Rolta will face resistance to cross Rs75-77.
The counters like ICICI which went up on low activity may run up to 393 and to 403-06 level so long it trades above 373 level. It will become weak below 368 level.
The Rel Infra is good above 616 to touch 660 level but will become weak below 603 level. In case the stock shall not trades below 593 will see selling pressure from short sellers and the bull un-winding will accelerate for every 5 rupee fall.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Correction in the momentum…..?
The markets across the globe are taking a breather in the Bull run initiated 4-weeks back. The Indian markets displayed the much required strength against the bad times when US falling to touch its 25 year lows and participated in the bounce back. Now the real testing time to our markets whether we could de-couple and rise or not?.
The SGXNifty suggests that the Nifty could see a cut of nearly 90 points in the opening. The Asian markets were down and Yester day holiday saved our cut but today Bears exert more pressure on the Bulls to hold the ground above 3150 level. The early morning support may come at 3130 level but the Nifty has support at 3080.
The RIL has the initial support at 1617-23 level and may touch 1594-91 level to bounce sharply above the first support level.
The HDFC the star performer may loose some strength but it is in the Bull grip so long it trades above 1609-1620 has the potential to touch 1945-60 level.
The much roller coaster rider with great swings either side happened on Monday in Rel Infra may yield to selling pressure; get support at 676-73 level and at 666 level. The scrip will rally to 669 level once it trades above 593 after this correction which may trap the bears by touching 532-526 level.
The best out-performers of the recent rally- LT has good support at 720-16 level and get very good support at 701-03 level, the RCOM will get support at 186-188 level, the Bharti is in Bull grip sol long it trade above 617-21 level.
The metal may correct sharply. The Sail likely to touch 93 level, The Tata steel may touch 206-09 level and the Sterlite may touch 345-43 level.
The correction will check the journey when the SBI reaches 1025-35 range, Relcap touches 369-73 range and the ICICI touches 329-324 range.
The SGXNifty suggests that the Nifty could see a cut of nearly 90 points in the opening. The Asian markets were down and Yester day holiday saved our cut but today Bears exert more pressure on the Bulls to hold the ground above 3150 level. The early morning support may come at 3130 level but the Nifty has support at 3080.
The RIL has the initial support at 1617-23 level and may touch 1594-91 level to bounce sharply above the first support level.
The HDFC the star performer may loose some strength but it is in the Bull grip so long it trades above 1609-1620 has the potential to touch 1945-60 level.
The much roller coaster rider with great swings either side happened on Monday in Rel Infra may yield to selling pressure; get support at 676-73 level and at 666 level. The scrip will rally to 669 level once it trades above 593 after this correction which may trap the bears by touching 532-526 level.
The best out-performers of the recent rally- LT has good support at 720-16 level and get very good support at 701-03 level, the RCOM will get support at 186-188 level, the Bharti is in Bull grip sol long it trade above 617-21 level.
The metal may correct sharply. The Sail likely to touch 93 level, The Tata steel may touch 206-09 level and the Sterlite may touch 345-43 level.
The correction will check the journey when the SBI reaches 1025-35 range, Relcap touches 369-73 range and the ICICI touches 329-324 range.
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
The strength displayed…..
The markets showed their positive strength on the back of Asian markets rally. The opening was so bullish but failed to hold on the gains due to the weakness in RIL, SBI, HUL and ITC but closed in positive territory with the help from RCOM, Bharti, LT, HDFC and HDFC bank.
The mid-cap rally is phenomenon be it ESSAR OIL BY 50%, RIIL BY
40%, GITANJALI BY 25%, MRPL & CHENNAI PETRO rose close to 20%. The rally is very sharp and interesting to complete the cycle to squeeze the retail short sellers in the market. These moves will threaten the other dare devils to think of selling in the market even though their calling is right. These pre-empting techniques are useful to the market movers/operators to manage their stocks to their tunes.
The market leader RIL seems exhausted, this can be confirmed when the Reliance fails to trade above 1693 level as the Reliance high made Monday at Rs1742/- is a clear indication of capping at the top. The correction may lead the stock to touch support at 1535-45 range.
The Nifty has first support at 3109-18 level and the second support at 3020-26 level. The Nifty will become weak only when it trades below the second support level. The consequent 3 day lows at 2962-66 level any way come to rescue the Bulls even a deep correction is un-warranted.
The Banking lot will correct sharply by more than 20% in this fall but the resilience to bounce is still inherent.
The mid-cap rally is phenomenon be it ESSAR OIL BY 50%, RIIL BY
40%, GITANJALI BY 25%, MRPL & CHENNAI PETRO rose close to 20%. The rally is very sharp and interesting to complete the cycle to squeeze the retail short sellers in the market. These moves will threaten the other dare devils to think of selling in the market even though their calling is right. These pre-empting techniques are useful to the market movers/operators to manage their stocks to their tunes.
The market leader RIL seems exhausted, this can be confirmed when the Reliance fails to trade above 1693 level as the Reliance high made Monday at Rs1742/- is a clear indication of capping at the top. The correction may lead the stock to touch support at 1535-45 range.
The Nifty has first support at 3109-18 level and the second support at 3020-26 level. The Nifty will become weak only when it trades below the second support level. The consequent 3 day lows at 2962-66 level any way come to rescue the Bulls even a deep correction is un-warranted.
The Banking lot will correct sharply by more than 20% in this fall but the resilience to bounce is still inherent.
Monday, April 06, 2009
The Asian surge….
The Asian markets are trading in green with a positive move up wards by 2.5-3.5% but with an exception of Shanghai Composite in red. The markets are filled with josh that could lead this rally further as the negative data coming is not surprising to the markets as it is used to live with.
The SGX Nifty is suggesting that the Nifty is well above the resistance level at 4265-80 level and currently trading at 4335 with low as 4265. So the markets shall run on its course as the Bulls are hungry for more. The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.
The good policy is to avoid fresh entry at this level. The Nifty likely to get support at 2935-65 level while coming down can be an etry point. The Nifty built this empire with a classic bottom building process at 2565 level for 3-days and 2740-2773 for 3-days and 2962-66 for 3 consequent days. So even by simple averaging theory suggests that the market has good support at 2775 level.
The Reliance was the first to move the Index has resistance at 1848 level and good support existed at 1535-15 level. The Rel-infra has the potential to touch 609-11 level and likely to touch 669-73 level in coming days so long it stays above 551-53 level.
The Banking giant though lagging the run but has potential to touch 1320 level if it stays above 1060-65 level. The ICICI bank is the most battered stock even in the recent bull-run is running in line with others but with great exhaustion may face resistance at 393 level but can be expected to touch 416-21 level. The stocks like NTPC, HDFC, HUL, Axis Bank and Bharti are becoming hot favourites for Shorting.
The SGX Nifty is suggesting that the Nifty is well above the resistance level at 4265-80 level and currently trading at 4335 with low as 4265. So the markets shall run on its course as the Bulls are hungry for more. The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.
The good policy is to avoid fresh entry at this level. The Nifty likely to get support at 2935-65 level while coming down can be an etry point. The Nifty built this empire with a classic bottom building process at 2565 level for 3-days and 2740-2773 for 3-days and 2962-66 for 3 consequent days. So even by simple averaging theory suggests that the market has good support at 2775 level.
The Reliance was the first to move the Index has resistance at 1848 level and good support existed at 1535-15 level. The Rel-infra has the potential to touch 609-11 level and likely to touch 669-73 level in coming days so long it stays above 551-53 level.
The Banking giant though lagging the run but has potential to touch 1320 level if it stays above 1060-65 level. The ICICI bank is the most battered stock even in the recent bull-run is running in line with others but with great exhaustion may face resistance at 393 level but can be expected to touch 416-21 level. The stocks like NTPC, HDFC, HUL, Axis Bank and Bharti are becoming hot favourites for Shorting.
Sunday, April 05, 2009
The Rally reached………….
The markets enjoyed the rally despite of all economic bad news and demand contraction at home but on US markets. The global markets were enthused by the US rally because every else country is in a better position the worst effected. Now the news headlines carrying the 17 month old recession is now taking efforts to rise from the lows. The same thing has reflected in their indices.
The dependant emerging markets (third world) countries will now feel the heat as there could be some time lag to face the challenges. Now the real testing times a head to our Indian corporate houses to overcome both the demand contraction at home and shrinking margin abroad. The US will place many restrictions to save their economy and the exporters will face the margin pressure as the Rupee already reached a level. So every 1% of rupee strengthens place the exporters at very disadvantage position. The plant shut downs of the new offshore acquisitions will squeeze the top corporate houses and the interest burden will erode the little earnings made. Now the future for Indian corporate houses is very challenging and so is their market cap.
The Nifty has cross the earlier resistance at 2860 level with ease as it could absorb the selling pressure at 2550-2630 level while the US is testing the Multi-year lows at DOW and NASDAQ. The rally is sharp and the openings wee also above 60-100 points on Nifty at the 3000 level to 3200 level shows the squeeze faced by the short sellers who expected the Nifty to follow US in down turn. This could propel the short covering above 3080 level to test the 3229 level. So is the case with Bank Nifty from 3320 to 4425 level. The stocks gained more than 40 to 80% from their lows in this 700 points Nifty rally triggered on first week end of March to date. The first quarter results and the predictions of the strength of the Third Front will carry the tunes to the market. As of now the Nifty may face resistance at 3280 level and may correct sharply.
The dependant emerging markets (third world) countries will now feel the heat as there could be some time lag to face the challenges. Now the real testing times a head to our Indian corporate houses to overcome both the demand contraction at home and shrinking margin abroad. The US will place many restrictions to save their economy and the exporters will face the margin pressure as the Rupee already reached a level. So every 1% of rupee strengthens place the exporters at very disadvantage position. The plant shut downs of the new offshore acquisitions will squeeze the top corporate houses and the interest burden will erode the little earnings made. Now the future for Indian corporate houses is very challenging and so is their market cap.
The Nifty has cross the earlier resistance at 2860 level with ease as it could absorb the selling pressure at 2550-2630 level while the US is testing the Multi-year lows at DOW and NASDAQ. The rally is sharp and the openings wee also above 60-100 points on Nifty at the 3000 level to 3200 level shows the squeeze faced by the short sellers who expected the Nifty to follow US in down turn. This could propel the short covering above 3080 level to test the 3229 level. So is the case with Bank Nifty from 3320 to 4425 level. The stocks gained more than 40 to 80% from their lows in this 700 points Nifty rally triggered on first week end of March to date. The first quarter results and the predictions of the strength of the Third Front will carry the tunes to the market. As of now the Nifty may face resistance at 3280 level and may correct sharply.
Sunday, March 08, 2009
how far is .....
The extreme side of the market direction from a high of 6357 is the depth of fall one is expecting to stop and at an early date. The effort is to understand and analyse the swings......
The critical analysis shows that the markets are in tail spin fall to a dismal low of 2253.75 on 27-10-2008 from a high of 6357 on 08-01-2009.
The All-time High: 6357 and the All-time Low: 2253
The high to fall 6357 to 4448.50 low registered on 22-01-08 in 10 trading sessions with a fall of 1890 points is the begining........
HIGH : DATE LOW: DATE
6357.00 08-01-08 4448.50 22-01-08
5391.60 29-01-08 5071.15 31-01-08
5545.20 04-02-08 4803.60 11-02-08
5368.45 19-02-08 4620.50 10-03-08
5019.20 12-03-08 4468.55 18-06-08
4970.80 28-03-08 4628.75 16-04-08
5298.95 02-05-08 4913.80 12-05-08
5167.40 16-05-07 4536.25 05-06-08
4626.45 09-06-08 4369.80 10-05-06
4679.75 18-06-08 4093.20 25-06-08
4324.75 26-06-08 3848.25 02-07-08
4114.50 07-07-08 3896.05 08-07-08
4215.50 11-07-08 3790.20 16-07-08
4539.45 24-07-08 4159.15 29-07-08
4615.90 06-08-08 4464.00 08-08-08
4649.45 12-08-09 4248.00 22-08-08
4398.80 25-08-08 4201.85 28-11-08
4522.40 02-09-08 4328.90 05-09-08
4558.00 08-09-08 3919.35 16-09-08
4303.25 22-09-08 3715.05 30-09-08
4000.50 01-10-08 3198.95 10-10-08
3648.25 14-10-08 3046.60 17-10-08
3254.85 21-10-08 2252.75 27-10-08
3240.55 05-11-08 2502.90 20-11-09
2832.85 01-12-08 2570.70 02-12-08
3110.45 22-12-08 2701.75 15-01-09
2868.20 19-01-09 2661.75 23-01-09
2969.75 13-02-09 2539.45 06-03-09
The critical analysis shows that the markets are in tail spin fall to a dismal low of 2253.75 on 27-10-2008 from a high of 6357 on 08-01-2009.
The All-time High: 6357 and the All-time Low: 2253
The high to fall 6357 to 4448.50 low registered on 22-01-08 in 10 trading sessions with a fall of 1890 points is the begining........
HIGH : DATE LOW: DATE
6357.00 08-01-08 4448.50 22-01-08
5391.60 29-01-08 5071.15 31-01-08
5545.20 04-02-08 4803.60 11-02-08
5368.45 19-02-08 4620.50 10-03-08
5019.20 12-03-08 4468.55 18-06-08
4970.80 28-03-08 4628.75 16-04-08
5298.95 02-05-08 4913.80 12-05-08
5167.40 16-05-07 4536.25 05-06-08
4626.45 09-06-08 4369.80 10-05-06
4679.75 18-06-08 4093.20 25-06-08
4324.75 26-06-08 3848.25 02-07-08
4114.50 07-07-08 3896.05 08-07-08
4215.50 11-07-08 3790.20 16-07-08
4539.45 24-07-08 4159.15 29-07-08
4615.90 06-08-08 4464.00 08-08-08
4649.45 12-08-09 4248.00 22-08-08
4398.80 25-08-08 4201.85 28-11-08
4522.40 02-09-08 4328.90 05-09-08
4558.00 08-09-08 3919.35 16-09-08
4303.25 22-09-08 3715.05 30-09-08
4000.50 01-10-08 3198.95 10-10-08
3648.25 14-10-08 3046.60 17-10-08
3254.85 21-10-08 2252.75 27-10-08
3240.55 05-11-08 2502.90 20-11-09
2832.85 01-12-08 2570.70 02-12-08
3110.45 22-12-08 2701.75 15-01-09
2868.20 19-01-09 2661.75 23-01-09
2969.75 13-02-09 2539.45 06-03-09
Thursday, March 05, 2009
SENSEX below 3 year low…
The regular readers might have understood the supports and resistance levels and how they works. The Nifty is still a out-performer when it compared with the rest but the outflow of money due to the global giant financial institutions crumbling performance cast a shadow on our banking sector and on markets.The SENSEX is below 3 year low, where as the inflation was at 2002
levels.
In my earlier post it was mentioned the Reliance levels and the ONGC today the RIL high at 1220 and low at 1142 level and the ONGC took support at 637 . The Nifty took support at 2564 but it did not tried to cross the 2680 at time.
Now the markets are under severe selling pressure that to delivery based selling by institutions forcing the markets down. The Asian markets are ok and the yesterday cue from Europe and US also good but we did not follow them just because now a days we are a head of them…leading them.
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Against all odds.......
The 12 year low of DOW in US and the free fall in Europe due to the financial sector fall out did not effected Nifty but forced mourning was inevitable to express and act in line with them. The markets took all pains to stay above 2700 despite of meltdown in US and other European markets for some time and till yester day the lower supports were protected at 2650 level.
The Nifty now has to trade above 2740 level to avoid the debacle. In my earlier posting clearly mentioned the momentum loss in heavy weight despite the Nifty moving up to cross the 2930 hurdle. The RIL, ONGC and NTPC managed the show.
The challenge now is to see the quick recovery from the lows. The Nifty has to move above 2680 level to absorb the selling pressure without violating the immediate support at 2550. The RIL suddenly crumbled in late hour of trade below 1220 to touch a low of 1175 is the cause of concern.
The Asian markets are in green especially the China and the recovery in US failed to hold till closing in US is not a good sign. The SGX Nifty suggests a flat opening, today the Nifty may face resistance at 2741-43 level may get support at 2584-79 level and next at 2550 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1221-1218 level and will become weak below 1191 level may get support at 1146-51 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 663-66 level may get support at 642-39 level.
The severely beaten Rel Infra may face resistance at 451 level may get support at 426 level and next at 421 level, in case it fails to cross the 441 it may test 401-396 level in next two days.
The ICICI may face resistance at 311-08 level may get support at 281and level two support may emerge at 373. The Relcap may face resistance at 331-33 level.
In my earlier posting suggested that the Bharti may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level touched 594.
The Nifty now has to trade above 2740 level to avoid the debacle. In my earlier posting clearly mentioned the momentum loss in heavy weight despite the Nifty moving up to cross the 2930 hurdle. The RIL, ONGC and NTPC managed the show.
The challenge now is to see the quick recovery from the lows. The Nifty has to move above 2680 level to absorb the selling pressure without violating the immediate support at 2550. The RIL suddenly crumbled in late hour of trade below 1220 to touch a low of 1175 is the cause of concern.
The Asian markets are in green especially the China and the recovery in US failed to hold till closing in US is not a good sign. The SGX Nifty suggests a flat opening, today the Nifty may face resistance at 2741-43 level may get support at 2584-79 level and next at 2550 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1221-1218 level and will become weak below 1191 level may get support at 1146-51 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 663-66 level may get support at 642-39 level.
The severely beaten Rel Infra may face resistance at 451 level may get support at 426 level and next at 421 level, in case it fails to cross the 441 it may test 401-396 level in next two days.
The ICICI may face resistance at 311-08 level may get support at 281and level two support may emerge at 373. The Relcap may face resistance at 331-33 level.
In my earlier posting suggested that the Bharti may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level touched 594.
Friday, February 20, 2009
The US falls out….
The markets across the globe are in a queue to accept the US markets decision as DOW falls to 6-year lows. The Nifty is holding above 2735 could be a challenge as the global concern has worsen than expected. The Nifty at home was down by Budget sentiment and followed by the US concern could hold for two days above 2750. The recovery in RIL is very important as the Banking sector lost more than 15% in some stocks and around 10% in most of the heavy weights despite the expectation of rate cut on the cards.
The stocks like GE shipping moved up from 187 to 225 levels now back to square. The ICICI from 360 levels to 440 levels now back to 360 levels. The effort made to move was used to exit is the main problem in the markets. The HNIs, MFs and FIIs have little conviction that the world economy will recover soon so is the Indian economy.
The Nifty is good above 2803 as Reliance good above 1306. The markets today may not hold above 2780 level cold test 2704 level first and the better support exists at 2680 level. The volumes were dried up and the trading has been confined to limited stocks with high degree of volatility based on news/expectations.
Today Nifty may face resistance at 2793 level may get support at 2724-29 level and next at 2703-05 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1301-1298 level and will become weak below 1281 level may get support at 1246 level and next at 1238 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 683-86 level may get support at 662 level and next at 651-53 level. The Rel Infra may face resistance at 516 level may get support at 486 level and next at 473-71 level where the recent bottom support exists.
The ICICI may face resistance at 373-75 level may get support at 341-42level. The Relcap may face resistance at 381-83 level may get support at 359-57 level. The Bharti which built huge open interest at 640 CA may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level. The BHEL is facing resistance above 1410-12 level may correct steeply if it closes below 1350 level.
The Asian Markets are trading in red with nearly1.5 - 2% cut and the ADRs were not deeply cut. The SGX Nifty is trading at 2740 level down by 52 points. The challenge now is to recover from the lows. In case the Govt willing to provide easy liquidity situation by signaling RBI to cut the CRR and Repo rate cuts to spur the local demand as the inflation is totally under control may save our markets, other wise the markets next broad range will be in a range of 2830-2420 for next quarter.
The stocks like GE shipping moved up from 187 to 225 levels now back to square. The ICICI from 360 levels to 440 levels now back to 360 levels. The effort made to move was used to exit is the main problem in the markets. The HNIs, MFs and FIIs have little conviction that the world economy will recover soon so is the Indian economy.
The Nifty is good above 2803 as Reliance good above 1306. The markets today may not hold above 2780 level cold test 2704 level first and the better support exists at 2680 level. The volumes were dried up and the trading has been confined to limited stocks with high degree of volatility based on news/expectations.
Today Nifty may face resistance at 2793 level may get support at 2724-29 level and next at 2703-05 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1301-1298 level and will become weak below 1281 level may get support at 1246 level and next at 1238 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 683-86 level may get support at 662 level and next at 651-53 level. The Rel Infra may face resistance at 516 level may get support at 486 level and next at 473-71 level where the recent bottom support exists.
The ICICI may face resistance at 373-75 level may get support at 341-42level. The Relcap may face resistance at 381-83 level may get support at 359-57 level. The Bharti which built huge open interest at 640 CA may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level. The BHEL is facing resistance above 1410-12 level may correct steeply if it closes below 1350 level.
The Asian Markets are trading in red with nearly1.5 - 2% cut and the ADRs were not deeply cut. The SGX Nifty is trading at 2740 level down by 52 points. The challenge now is to recover from the lows. In case the Govt willing to provide easy liquidity situation by signaling RBI to cut the CRR and Repo rate cuts to spur the local demand as the inflation is totally under control may save our markets, other wise the markets next broad range will be in a range of 2830-2420 for next quarter.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
The determined bulls…..
The Nifty though weak by its level it didn’t let the Bears to take ride across the board. The Asian markets were weak and weak global cues did not help the Bears much to have a run as they wish but the Bull made their best effort to save the territory.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: As suggested in the morning post, Nifty could display its strength with a positive picture despite of weak global cues but tried to post nearly +36 points at one point in time. The Nifty made a come back to show a green close from a low of 2736 to touch a high of 2806.85 before closing at 2776.15
The Reliance took support at the first support level at 1240. The ONGC could not cross the 690 level as the high made was at 689.80
The ICICI high did not crossed but came to 365 low, expected 368 level. The Relcap high touched at 387.80 low touched 371.35. The Rel infra in the morning it could trade above 521 level and 17 lakhs traded above that level and the minute it fell below the 511 support level first touché at 496 later after a recovery to 516 then fell back to 493.35 as expected.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: As suggested in the morning post, Nifty could display its strength with a positive picture despite of weak global cues but tried to post nearly +36 points at one point in time. The Nifty made a come back to show a green close from a low of 2736 to touch a high of 2806.85 before closing at 2776.15
The Reliance took support at the first support level at 1240. The ONGC could not cross the 690 level as the high made was at 689.80
The ICICI high did not crossed but came to 365 low, expected 368 level. The Relcap high touched at 387.80 low touched 371.35. The Rel infra in the morning it could trade above 521 level and 17 lakhs traded above that level and the minute it fell below the 511 support level first touché at 496 later after a recovery to 516 then fell back to 493.35 as expected.
The inevitable…..
The Nifty is facing serious threat while moving up due to the US heading to deep recession that could not be saved with Obama package. The treat is that the IT outsourcing companies may face the difficulties as well the exporters.
The Nifty is down from a high of 2970 to 2757 in two days as it fell on 7th Jan from 3150 level 2750 in three days and that registered high was not crossed till date despite many global favourable news and rallies.
It seems that the US DOW likely to breach the Nov-lows but we may go close to 2500 level but the lows registered will not be breached so long we trade above 2550 level. The markets are weak to move but they are strong at the bottom as bottom fishing is seen in the heavy weights.
Today the Nifty has to cross the 2810 level in the intra day movement to exhibit its strength for future. The Nifty is weak below 2835 level and may get support first at 2685 level and next at 2650 level. The ONGC is good above 690 level and may get support at 650 level, it will become weak it breaches the immediate major support at 630-625 level. The Reliance has rallied from 1065 to 1405 lost nearly half to touch 1258 could get support first at 1236-39 level and the immediate good support seen at 1221-23 level. The ICICI is good above 389 and weak below 381 to touch 371 and 368 range from where the earlier move started. The Rel infra is good above 521-23 level weak below 511-09 to touch 493 and next at 486. The Relcap is weak below 386 level to touch the earlier support at 361-63 level.The issue of pledged shares demanding additional margin will effect the prices once the drop below by 20% to the recent supports.
The Asian markets are trading in red due to the spill over effect of US. The SGX-Nifty was down by nearly 33 points at 2723 level.
The Nifty is down from a high of 2970 to 2757 in two days as it fell on 7th Jan from 3150 level 2750 in three days and that registered high was not crossed till date despite many global favourable news and rallies.
It seems that the US DOW likely to breach the Nov-lows but we may go close to 2500 level but the lows registered will not be breached so long we trade above 2550 level. The markets are weak to move but they are strong at the bottom as bottom fishing is seen in the heavy weights.
Today the Nifty has to cross the 2810 level in the intra day movement to exhibit its strength for future. The Nifty is weak below 2835 level and may get support first at 2685 level and next at 2650 level. The ONGC is good above 690 level and may get support at 650 level, it will become weak it breaches the immediate major support at 630-625 level. The Reliance has rallied from 1065 to 1405 lost nearly half to touch 1258 could get support first at 1236-39 level and the immediate good support seen at 1221-23 level. The ICICI is good above 389 and weak below 381 to touch 371 and 368 range from where the earlier move started. The Rel infra is good above 521-23 level weak below 511-09 to touch 493 and next at 486. The Relcap is weak below 386 level to touch the earlier support at 361-63 level.The issue of pledged shares demanding additional margin will effect the prices once the drop below by 20% to the recent supports.
The Asian markets are trading in red due to the spill over effect of US. The SGX-Nifty was down by nearly 33 points at 2723 level.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
The belied hopes……..
The Nifty has taken severe Bear beating due to weak global cues and the down turn in the Asian markets. The belied expectations of the markets pushed hard to un-wind the long positions built over the fortnight. This could be the major reason for the Nifty heavy weights opened below yesterday lows.
The news flow is also no good to help the Bulls to hang on their positions. The Europe melts down by 3%and the US is bleeding. In case the US fails to recover at least 2% from the bottom then our markets likely to crumble on its weight.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
As posted in the morning, the Nifty took support at 2757 and the high registered at 2855 (2857-62high and low at 2750)
The Reliance took support at took support at 1258.20 and the high touched at 1307. The ONGC high 689.4and the low touched at Rs 670.0.The ICICI bank though touched high at 438.8 but it did not cross 405 at any point but touched a low at 380.20. The RelInfra has got support at 507.65 touched a high at 528.8
The news flow is also no good to help the Bulls to hang on their positions. The Europe melts down by 3%and the US is bleeding. In case the US fails to recover at least 2% from the bottom then our markets likely to crumble on its weight.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
As posted in the morning, the Nifty took support at 2757 and the high registered at 2855 (2857-62high and low at 2750)
The Reliance took support at took support at 1258.20 and the high touched at 1307. The ONGC high 689.4and the low touched at Rs 670.0.The ICICI bank though touched high at 438.8 but it did not cross 405 at any point but touched a low at 380.20. The RelInfra has got support at 507.65 touched a high at 528.8
The “LONGS” unwinding…..
The interim budget has everything for the forth coming elections but not for the industry. It is more so for the stock markets. How can we expect fire works from a Govt that faces elections with in 3 months?. The rumors were spread to attract retail positions building in longs and the HNI/operator building on the other side to make some quick money in a week. It is very unlikely that a retailer build against position.
The Nifty was at same closing level when a comparison made with a week back levels show that the stocks in F&O sector are still in the positive territory despite of the Nifty falls by100 points. The Nifty has built solid foundation of bottom building at 2660-90 for 5 consecutive days and at 2750-80 for 6 consecutive trading days. So the is very likely to get support at these levels. The recent top for Nifty was capped at 2926-69 level for 6 trading days.
As the home bound down trend, Erope weakness and the current melt down of Asian markets may put pressure in the opening. If we take a cue from the SGX-Nifty down by nearly 30 points may trigger more unwinding. The Nifty for this day could face resistance at 2857-62 level. The support is likely to emerge at 2780 and at 2750 level. The RIL is good for long only when it trades above 1375-73 level. The RIL will become weak if it trades below 1260 level. But it may face resistance at 1351-53 level for today and the bottom support first at 1291-93 level and further fall may take it to 1271 level.
The ICICI took support at 406 level which I wrote in my earlier posts (……..that The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. …………The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions………..).The Relcap took support at 396 level and SBI above 1126 level. Now the triggers for this sector are lacking but a ray of hope still alive as RBI expected to go for a rate cut soon. The RBI may announce at least 50bps rate cut in CRR to infuse more liquidity in the system after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The ONGC is weak below 694 and good above 705, ICICI may face resistance at 416-18 level and good above 429 only. The bottom support may emerge at 391-88 level. The Rel infra is good above 546 weak below 539 and the bottom support first at 505 and at 496 level.
The Nifty was at same closing level when a comparison made with a week back levels show that the stocks in F&O sector are still in the positive territory despite of the Nifty falls by100 points. The Nifty has built solid foundation of bottom building at 2660-90 for 5 consecutive days and at 2750-80 for 6 consecutive trading days. So the is very likely to get support at these levels. The recent top for Nifty was capped at 2926-69 level for 6 trading days.
As the home bound down trend, Erope weakness and the current melt down of Asian markets may put pressure in the opening. If we take a cue from the SGX-Nifty down by nearly 30 points may trigger more unwinding. The Nifty for this day could face resistance at 2857-62 level. The support is likely to emerge at 2780 and at 2750 level. The RIL is good for long only when it trades above 1375-73 level. The RIL will become weak if it trades below 1260 level. But it may face resistance at 1351-53 level for today and the bottom support first at 1291-93 level and further fall may take it to 1271 level.
The ICICI took support at 406 level which I wrote in my earlier posts (……..that The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. …………The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions………..).The Relcap took support at 396 level and SBI above 1126 level. Now the triggers for this sector are lacking but a ray of hope still alive as RBI expected to go for a rate cut soon. The RBI may announce at least 50bps rate cut in CRR to infuse more liquidity in the system after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The ONGC is weak below 694 and good above 705, ICICI may face resistance at 416-18 level and good above 429 only. The bottom support may emerge at 391-88 level. The Rel infra is good above 546 weak below 539 and the bottom support first at 505 and at 496 level.
Friday, February 13, 2009
The strength displayed……
The markets displayed the much needed strength despite the global pressures. The Nifty could hold above the 2886 level and the bottom support has not violated yet.
The bottom building process for the Nifty and for the important stocks like ONGC, ICICI, RELCAP, BHARTI, RCOM,HDFC HDFC Bank and may other. Now the strength was weakened due to RIL underperformance. Unless RIL trades above 1493 the Nifty could head no where. The markets are hoping to get support from RBI for rate cuts and stimulus package from GOI.
The Railway package can influence today before the interim budget on Monday.
The Nifty is strong above 2915 and weak below 2893, RIL is good above 1391 weak below 1381, ONGC is good above 706 and weak below 694, Infosys is weak below 1304 and weak below 1289, ICICI is weak below 411 and good above 421-23, Relcap is good above 426 and weak below 416 level.
The bottom building process for the Nifty and for the important stocks like ONGC, ICICI, RELCAP, BHARTI, RCOM,HDFC HDFC Bank and may other. Now the strength was weakened due to RIL underperformance. Unless RIL trades above 1493 the Nifty could head no where. The markets are hoping to get support from RBI for rate cuts and stimulus package from GOI.
The Railway package can influence today before the interim budget on Monday.
The Nifty is strong above 2915 and weak below 2893, RIL is good above 1391 weak below 1381, ONGC is good above 706 and weak below 694, Infosys is weak below 1304 and weak below 1289, ICICI is weak below 411 and good above 421-23, Relcap is good above 426 and weak below 416 level.
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