Friday, July 13, 2007

The Global cues are flashy!

The global markets too in bullish mood and the markets are jumping to test new highs every time. The Indian markets are in jubilant mood as the FIIs are pouring money and now new money in the form of SPACs is coming- a threat to the managements with low percentage of share holding.

Nifty is comfortably placed in support of bulls so long the low does not breach 4411-09 levels.
No big news, exporters get sops and clearances to SEZs. Today it is likely that RIL can break the range bound, above 1718 strong and below 1703 weak. The stop-losses are either side. The reality may take a halt from higher side. The SBI is expected to see action- above 1563 up below 1541-43 is down wards. IDFC is good above 126.85 and stop-loss at 124. Relcap is weak below 1153-51 good above 1171-69.
The pressure from bears can bring RCOM to 541-43 level, Steels may correct a bit at the fag end of the session. The move initiated in telecoms like MTNL may continue, VSNL expected to participate and ONGC to support bulls if it trades above 891 and stop-loss at 883.

The move is solid and up-wards!

The markets showed a solid move participation from the laggards of the past and support from the leaders like ABB, BHEL, RCOM, Bharti, ICICI and last but not least is from metal space.
Those who took del. in Hindalco can prune by 50% at 168-69 ranges and the rest above 173-75 or at 158 as the case may be. As a matter of fact the screen is bullish but it stretched too far amidst of the gloomy views from leading brokerage houses. In case of a correction beyond normal on any single day can break the whole faith and the long-term bullish story of our markets. If we go back to history, the moves are sharp and wild but the solace is the intra day volatility is not there. So 50% saved but the up moves are very much stretched.
Nifty has good support at 4245-4241 levels. In case RIL trades below 1686 is the first signs of breaks in the up trend. The bullishness will end when RCOM trades below 503-501 level and Tata Steel trades below 606-608 levels. So no shorts for short gains but no longs for a longer period.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

The move is solid and up-wards!

The markets showed a solid move participation from the laggards of the past and support from the leaders like ABB, BHEL, RCOM, Bharti, ICICI and last but not least is from metal space.
Those who took del. in Hindalco can prune by 50% at 168-69 ranges and the rest above 173-75 or at 158 as the case may be. As a matter of fact the screen is bullish but it stretched too far amidst of the gloomy views from leading brokerage houses. In case of a correction beyond normal on any single day can break the whole faith and the long-term bullish story of our markets. If we go back to history, the moves are sharp and wild but the solace is the intra day volatility is not there. So 50% saved but the up moves are very much stretched.
Nifty has good support at 4245-4241 levels. In case RIL trades below 1686 is the first signs of breaks in the up trend. The bullishness will end when RCOM trades below 503-501 level and Tata Steel trades below 606-608 levels. So no shorts for short gains but no longs for a longer period.

No break in bullishness?.

The bears are looking the height the indices climbed but where as the bulls are visualizing the headroom upward journey to be made. What a clear distinction in approach?.
The Infosys results came, gone with wounds and thumps down by street, but the over all market was clearly bullish even at the top. Can the mid cap its survive in profits or take a cue from “igate” to report losses?. In case of loses what about the recent valuations?.
As posted earlier the viewers could have observed that Tata steel strong above 626 and yester day low was 627 run-up to 561+, RCOM has good support at 536 and it got the support. Those who took del. in ZEE at 295-300 range, as suggested went to 32-330 level, so reduce by 50%, wait till it trades below 308-09 for the rest 50%. Hindalco made an up move up to 158 but could not trade above, this time when it crosses 158, good for del. stop-loss @154.
The news that can influence is RIL gas may be that could be the reason to float between 1693-1718 for the last 6 trading sessions. It is preparing to bid in US for refinery. Now HLL (HUL) in news, take over attempt by Colgate.
Dabur merges Dabur foods, stay long with stop- loss @ 101.
Nifty is good above 4351-53 levels, but it unlikely that it can stay a long period in case TCS and Wipro disappoint more.
No major technical changes happened. Incase of bear pressure prefer short in SBI, RIL. ICICI has good support above 953-55 levels. MTNL will continue the up move stop-loss @ 163. Nuclear news-NTPC, BHEL, ABB and Punjlloyd.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

The D-day! USA in red!

There were no major changes in the technical levels of other stocks except Infosys as results were below expectations as expected but the street reaction is important. Infy weak below 2020 stop loss 2041-43, TCS weak below 119189 stop loss 1201-03, RCOM strong above 539-41 level, weak market may touch 51-19 levels. The RIL below 1705-06 weak, SBI weak below 1563. The Nifty has support at 4351-49 level, below that @4321-23.

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Tech ADRs shine, rest is good!

The Nifty could get support at 4383-81 level. The RIL should trade above 1715 to see Nifty to trade above 4403-06. The results of HDFC can influence the bank stocks. The cements likely to correct by 2-3%. The hindalco good above 158-159 for del. stoploss @154.

The SBI is good above 1563-66 level and ONGC above 886-85, RIL above 1706-08, RCOM above 551-49 Tata steel good above 626. The stocks are good above those levels for long, below those levels go short in RIL & SBI.

Scrips in news- Suzlon negative news, RIL gas positive, tech results can influence the direction in advance – a caution.

Monday, July 09, 2007

THE POWER OF BULLISHNESS!

The bulls are showing their strength in managing the Nifty with rotation of heavy weights moving up. This time by ONGC, Bharti BHEL, L&T and Banks. It is likely that the tomorrow cycle will come with RIL, ICICI, SUZLON, HLL and ITC. The persons in del. in ZEEL can cut their exposure by 75%, Satyam by 50%.
The Ster made a good move but Hindalco did not, but may tomorrow?. Today also RIL failed to trade above 1718 but did not cut 1701. SBI above 1549-51 levels gave good returns and morning up move sustained in ONGC above 881-83 level. The techs consolidated, Infy above 1979 good above 2020 is solid up move. TCS above 1181-83 is good. Incase those who took del. above 1129-31 levels can reduce their holding by 50%.
It is very likely that the Infy results will change the course of journey. I think the RIL will touch 1580, SBI may touch 1430-39 levels before a fresh upward move can be expected.

The likely to open above 4400?

The global cues are positive and the mood in Indian market is also favouring the bulls, can help the Nifty to float above 4400 and it seems bulls determined to touch 4480 as posted in earlier posts.
The scrips in news- Hindalco & Sterlite, the copper trading at 7-week highs. The RIL-(slightly negative) gas KG-blocks issue, ANIL, now a trillionaire, the companies likely to move up. MTNL acquires Suntel in Srilanka.
Nifty shall not trade below 4361-63 levels to continue the up move. The RIL shall trade above 1715-16 level, RCOM above 556 and the Pharma shall move to equate themselves in the upward journey. The techs changed the bottoms support, as Infy above 1955-56 strong, Wipro above 516-18 and TCS above 1153 are strong. Those who took del. in Satyam and in ZEEL can wait until Satyam stays above 483-81 levels and ZEEL above 306-05 to gain more. Tata Steel good above 625, SAIL above 132. The SBI has become weak until it stays below 1549-51 level and ONGC below 883, technically weak.
In case of profit booking pressure, cements and banks are weak.

Saturday, July 07, 2007

Stellar performance!

The markets showed a beautiful up move beyond expectation. I was under the impression of down ward move as the other markets correcting. But technically the market did not trade below 4349 even foe 5 minutes, saved me from my shorts.
The day went long enjoying the up move with out participation. The techs moved very well as anticipated Satyam made a run-up after 473-475 level to 490+ (read 4th July post) and likely to touch 520-30 range. TCS above 1129, Infosys above1935 are strong but I made no money as I was expecting a correction any time.
I made my shorts in RIL below 1713 level, SBI below 1549-46 level. Once the levels crossed waitng for a chance that did not turned except in RIL. The greatest regret is I could not believe the up move and failed to take delivery in Satyam. After all it is the beauty and greatness of the market.

Friday, July 06, 2007

The red spread across the world?.

The world indices are in red, so we can be no exception at least for this day.
The Nifty may not cross 4363-65 levels and may test 4291-93 as the volatility increased from yesterday. The low should below 4342 and it should trade below 4349 levels for the first half an hour to confirm the above condition. The major supporters like RIL shall not trade above 1714-15 level and low should below 1703, SBI shall not trade above 1553-56, low shall register below 1539, ICICI high shall not touch 1011-13, RCOM low shall register below 539.

The run-up in the autos may take a halt and the reality correction will continue. The UBS positive rating on Tata Steel will help it to stay above 608-09 levels and will advance further in future. The long-term del. holders shall prune their del. positions more than 50%, as already requested to off- load by 50%.

Thursday, July 05, 2007

The Bulls fight fierce, before they yield?.

The very nature of the fight at the top can be seen at the high of its spirits to trigger all stop-losses on both sides. The power fight can be clearly observed on the streets for the last 4-5 trading sessions. Can the China red-effect percolate tomorrow to us ?.
The DLF brought much needed relief to bulls and sentiment as it could trade above the issue price in spite of many negative views. The sentiment is in favour of bulls but stock specific action can be seen, as there was no run-up but up move for those who hold for some time if not for delivery.

FOLLOW UP : The RIL could not trade above 1721 came down to support level @1683-1681 levels, the same is with SBI, could not trade above 1566, the RCOM traded below 539 brought it to 526 level but bounced back to 552. The Strength in ICICI, bottom support of ONGC and bounce back of RIL from lows brought Nifty to 4355 levels.

The momentum paused!

The stocks are consolidated before they make good move. The correction is due as the prices reached high in relative terms. The market has become more stock specific and the moves are either side triggering stop-losses. The RIL, SBI and Relcap performed but failed in ICICI and Siemens failed. The autos presented a different move than the anticipation. The ICICI bank, ACC, Guj.Ambuja and Reliance are holding the Nifty above 4350 levels with support from RCOM. The cements and textiles made their up moves.

The Nifty has support at 4312-15 and the bear pressure can be absorbed at 4293-91 levels. The RIL is just above the crucial support at 1711-1713, SBI good above 1551-49.The up move in the last hour in ICICI brought it to bulls grip has good support at 946-945. The Tata Steel builds the bottom support at 601-603.

I prefer long in ONGC above 881, RIL above 1721 and SBI above 1566. In case of bear move, go short RCOM below 539, Tata steel below611.

Wednesday, July 04, 2007

The frontline stocks are high!

The Nifty and Sensex reached to a level to correct which is good as I posted new blood will be infused.
The Nifty has good support at 4293-1 levels for this day. The RIL showing bottom support at 1701-03 but the high has to cross 1712 and trade above 1708 to confirm the up move. The SBI and Relcap may correct along with ICICI. Infy may cross 1955 if the low above 1939, even touch 1981-83 level. Above 473-75 level Satyam is good for a up move to cross 500, one can try for delivery.
Tata Motors has good support at 759 but today it may correct, Maruti and M&M may follow. Siemens ripe for short sell, stoploss at 1418-17 level. Zee is building bottom may cross 325-330 level soon.Those who are short in Hindalco may cover now.

Monday, July 02, 2007

Long wait completed!

The viewers might have read the previous posts in which I clearly mentioned that the market would fall only when Sensex crosses the previous high. Now this event became History.

The market moved by capital goods, banks and telecom. It is likely that the Nifty would get good support at 4178-81 levels. If we read the history, the Nifty has been trading above 4140 levels for the lost 40 trading sessions. So it is not that much easy for bears to crack the foundation so easily unless there is a drastic change in the economic/political situation. So enjoy in the profits in Mid-cap movers of media, telecom and this time on reality. There was no change in the frontline stocks except in ONGC and SBI.

Saturday, June 30, 2007

The steady and solid up move to create history!

The bulls in market showed their strength to scale the indices to new highs. In my earlier posts stated that the markets would fall only when the Sensex touches new high. The Sensex very likely to touch the new high above 14700 and the up move may continue, as the environment for bulls is fairly favourable. The techs may move in positive direction, as the time is ripe.

Follow up: As posted today, the Hindalco lost nearly 5%, but Tata steel could not hold above 598 at any point of time. The TCS has made good move above 1141 and never touched 1129, The RIL could not trade above 1711-12 or could trade below 1685. The Banking lot especially by SBI, made a decent move above 1503 and traded above 1471 a pre-condition for a big up move, as posted. The Idea suggested for del. above 118 gave good gains and the IDFC and IDBI suggested for delivery can now reduce thier postions by half.

Friday, June 29, 2007

Rest is calm, China violent red?

The Indian stock markets likely to go for a breakout incase of positive results from techs in this series. As of now no major changes in the levels as they are in rage bound maintaining the old ones.
Today stocks in news are Tata steel, good above 598 stop loss 591. SBI has negative and positive news – incase it trades below 1459 go short or the scrip shall trade above 1471 to test new high at 1491 even 1500. TCS is in shopping two more companies, good above 1141 stop loss @1129.
The Hindalco likely to correct and test 156-155 level if it trades below 172-171. The Relcap also correct and touch 990-993 level.

Personally I prefer Tatasteel & Hindalco and may trade in RCOM & Satyam as there was no violation of levels.

Thursday, June 28, 2007

June closed with out gains?.

The series started with 4295 and ended with 4282. So no Puts and no Calls made big money. The stocks rocked are ABB, SUZLON, L&T and the today’s surprise win from cement sector stocks.

The techs are facing the heat of rupee rise may enjoy the new contracts at higher price and volume increase can be seen as the industry is consolidating with decent top line growth. A waiting period of one year at this level is no wrong as the run up was incredible.
The auto are going to change the transport system in India as huge potential is going to be unleashed in a year or two. The CNG will change the lifestyles and the retail shops provide big opportunity across the nation.
The Nifty did not breach the low or crossed the high as mentioned, RIL got support at 1685-86 level and resistance at 1712-11 level. SBI did now trade below 1441-43 level advanced. The Bharati is consolidating between 821-839 levels.
Follow up: Satyam and Wipro gave decent gains. The banking not bearish as thought. due to SBI news. HDFC made decent move up. The biggest failure – failed to anticipate the cement move.

Rest is green, we close June!

The US bounced to positive and Asia trading green. The Patni ADR- 3%up.
The local markets likely to open positive with a gap of 20 points at Nifty above 4273 level. The RIL has to join the bulls party and shall trade above 1711-13 level and ONGC above 929-31 level to the markets trade above 4295-98 level, which is a constraint to cross in short-term. The Sensex likely to cross the all time high in July series, a long waited event. The steels likely to correct further and the GMR may take a breath for a while. The banks are fund thirsty and advancing up to garner much.
The RCOM strong above 515, weak below 508-06, Bharti good above 839-41 level and may drift lower below 831. The Tata steel may bounce back and close above 600 level and the techs may continue the up move. Satyam good above 469 stop loss 463, TCS good above 1141 stop loss 1129, Infty good above 1935 stop loss 1920 and Wipro is good for delivery if it trades above 515 and low above 509.
Top news- Govt sops to Sugar sector, Citi for Share khan- IDFC has stake, HDFC got 450 crs from stake sale in the BPO deal, RIL gas sale and row on price, Kesoram to Aditya group, Steel prices may drop in future by Rs 500-1000/-.

For today, personally consider Satyam and Wipro for long and short an banks.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

A day to pass to invite the true color?

The stocks are reflecting a different color on sceeen from their original moves, trying to exhibit a concealed version for a cause -”the June F&O closing”.
The Nifty is managing to stay above 4251 level is a good sign if it continue to carry a head in future as the consolidation above 4141 level and the stocks traded at their higher prices. So far so good, but the apprehension about the advancement of Nifty is increasing in the minds of the fund managers is not a good sign. Nifty is trying to hold on the top, up movement has been questioned time and again.The up move has been intact so long Nifty trades above 4139-41 levels and RIL trades above 1621, ONGC above 901-03, Bharti above 821, RCOM above 501-03 levels. Incase Nifty slides, no panic situation will emerge until it trades above 4079-81 level and RIL trades above 1580 level. So fall is a good sign for fresh people to enter and hold “ change of hands”.

US down, Asia red, almost!

We are getting the bull support to the Nifty as the expiry is near to close. The shorts built at the beginning of the series also propping to stay positive. This is not a healthy sign to the bull market as it passes through invite vengeance, which clearly wipes out the retail small investor, the real feedstock to the stock market industry.

The Nifty up by 26 pts. and Sensex up by 13 points, a rare case as RIL down and ONGC up changed the scenario. The Nifty is close above its support level of 4271-73, above strong, below 42461 can see a serious damage. The stocks are in bear pressure except Bharti, RCOM and ONGC. The rest are just close above or just below the support levels. No major change in their levels.
Personally I am bearish on Banking. Strong on Telecom. Steels both ways.