Saturday, July 21, 2007
The lower support is crucial!
The Nifty did not breach the lower support of 4551 as posted yesterday but the fall from higher level due to profit booking and the over nightfall of US can fuel doubts over the continuation of bull move. This can put some pressure on bulls to unwind their positions and the bears may take this opportunity to apply pressure to break the immediate supports of Nifty and the leaders. The Nifty has good support at 4489-87 level and this will stand valid so long RIL stays above 1841-43, Bharti above 898-901 and RCOM stays above 556-61 levels.The rotation of stocks is the day of the trading style. It is likely that ICICI may get selling pressure and in SBI, incase it fails to trade above 1581-83. The up move in steel stocks can take halt but Tata steel is good above 705 and Sail above 153. The techs may correct further, this time Infy cannot stay above 1935 if it trades below 1966, Satyam weak blow 463, TCS below 1151- otherwise they are in trading range. The ONGC and power equipment manufacturing can save the Nifty from steep fall. The stocks are positive, ONGC above 895, Bhel above 1621, Suzlon above 1450, ABB above 1085 and NTPC above 156-157.
Is it consolidation or distribution?
The markets corrected from the higher level have become an opportunity to prune the earlier positions but not to build further positions. The Nifty will consolidate but the stock specific distribution in imment at this point in time. The clear signal is 7% down in Siemens, yet to recover and ABB fall, as well those who shorted in RIL and Tata steel forced to buy at higher levels. The operators are making all possible ways to trap the retail investors as the market has become stronger to mend to one’s whims and fancies.
Those who are in long can continue to hold until Nifty stays above 4491-93 levels. The fresh buying opportunities will emerge in NTPC and REL. The telcos are now Towers of money spinning. Those who are long in Bharti can wait to sell above 1000,RCOM above 625 and Idea above 175. The results of Cipla are disappointing and no big news to trigger up move may consolidate at 180-170 level. The fertiliser stocks likely to advance further as the food- security has become the need of the hour. The Unitech & DLF can be maintained in once portfolio but not small construction companies as the space demand by the BPO & software companies for next two to three years is limited. The surplus space and over construction in reality will dampen the demand in the market and make them loan defaulters that could bring cynical effect in the market. So anticipate the spate of the reality market in the context of rupee appreciation and emerging threats from China, Malaysia and from other emerging countries.
Now India is poised to grow in nuclear power, KPO, CRAMS and biotechnology. The other space for growth is emerging in retail malls and entertainment market through cable and WIMAX with 3G spectrums.
Those who are in long can continue to hold until Nifty stays above 4491-93 levels. The fresh buying opportunities will emerge in NTPC and REL. The telcos are now Towers of money spinning. Those who are long in Bharti can wait to sell above 1000,RCOM above 625 and Idea above 175. The results of Cipla are disappointing and no big news to trigger up move may consolidate at 180-170 level. The fertiliser stocks likely to advance further as the food- security has become the need of the hour. The Unitech & DLF can be maintained in once portfolio but not small construction companies as the space demand by the BPO & software companies for next two to three years is limited. The surplus space and over construction in reality will dampen the demand in the market and make them loan defaulters that could bring cynical effect in the market. So anticipate the spate of the reality market in the context of rupee appreciation and emerging threats from China, Malaysia and from other emerging countries.
Now India is poised to grow in nuclear power, KPO, CRAMS and biotechnology. The other space for growth is emerging in retail malls and entertainment market through cable and WIMAX with 3G spectrums.
Friday, July 20, 2007
The up-move unlimited!
The markets world over inching up day after day despite of some concerns and negative views and cautious suggestions from the brokerage houses.
The Nifty has crossed the 4480-4520 range as posted earlier, now the suggestion in stay invested with the remaining balance in the del. of Idea, Bharti, Zeel, Ster, IDBI and IDFC. In case of compulsive nature to take del. try in Ranbaxy, L&T and Dabur. The FMCG move could in the offing as the retaiers increasing their space rapidly. It is very likely that DLF and UNITECH will be included in the NIFTY by next quarter. So accumulate in small lots and gain from the move. The early initiatives from the KPO and CRAMS likely to benefit India and the nuclear deal can make a lot of change in the valuations of the equipment manufactures like BHEL, ABB, Punj Lloyd. The NTPC, REL and Tata power will benefit, as they are leaders in power generation. The above companies can be accumulated, and the fall becomes a big opportunity.
The Nifty has resistance at 4583-89 range, incase it trades below 4555-4551, bears will have the advantage. The RIL may get selling pressure if it fails to trade above 1901-03 in the first half an hour and the low is below 1885. The run-up in banks likely to continue incase SBI trades above 1589-91 and ICICI above 993. Those who are holding the Idea del from 118 can book profits at 135 as suggested. The Bharti del holders can wait until it stays above 873-71. Incase persons long in Nifty can prune their positions by 50%.
The Nifty has crossed the 4480-4520 range as posted earlier, now the suggestion in stay invested with the remaining balance in the del. of Idea, Bharti, Zeel, Ster, IDBI and IDFC. In case of compulsive nature to take del. try in Ranbaxy, L&T and Dabur. The FMCG move could in the offing as the retaiers increasing their space rapidly. It is very likely that DLF and UNITECH will be included in the NIFTY by next quarter. So accumulate in small lots and gain from the move. The early initiatives from the KPO and CRAMS likely to benefit India and the nuclear deal can make a lot of change in the valuations of the equipment manufactures like BHEL, ABB, Punj Lloyd. The NTPC, REL and Tata power will benefit, as they are leaders in power generation. The above companies can be accumulated, and the fall becomes a big opportunity.
The Nifty has resistance at 4583-89 range, incase it trades below 4555-4551, bears will have the advantage. The RIL may get selling pressure if it fails to trade above 1901-03 in the first half an hour and the low is below 1885. The run-up in banks likely to continue incase SBI trades above 1589-91 and ICICI above 993. Those who are holding the Idea del from 118 can book profits at 135 as suggested. The Bharti del holders can wait until it stays above 873-71. Incase persons long in Nifty can prune their positions by 50%.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Except US, the RED is spreading?
The world markets favours red now and Asia is trading in Red. The Indian markets are in advance to take corrective steps. It is likely that the markets may open below 4467 support level and may continue to trade below. As we are in results season, stock specific action is not ruled out. As suggested no longs for a longer period in the name of LONG-TERM.
RIL is good above 1816 and may feel pressure below 1811 but good support at 1788-91 range. ONGC good above 903, use as a stop-loss for both sides. The SBI weak below 1591 and has support at 1563-61 level, RCOM may test 540-36 level, though there was some good news. Any day, Bharti is good for del. if it trades above 879, low above 873. SAIL has good support at 139-138 range. Rel. cap weak below 1183-85, become stoploss. UBS favourate, Tata Steel has support at 671-669 range. Keep an eye on ITC, Very good for long- term players who can apply KOI- Keep On Investing, in ITC to sell above 300 after 2 years. The pharma majors may move up once the Nifty stabilizes over 4381-83 level, and out perform in the next move. Those who are maintaining 50% del. in ZEEL can exit now and reenter at 301-306 range. Idea del. persons can wait and accumulate in case of a fall.
RIL is good above 1816 and may feel pressure below 1811 but good support at 1788-91 range. ONGC good above 903, use as a stop-loss for both sides. The SBI weak below 1591 and has support at 1563-61 level, RCOM may test 540-36 level, though there was some good news. Any day, Bharti is good for del. if it trades above 879, low above 873. SAIL has good support at 139-138 range. Rel. cap weak below 1183-85, become stoploss. UBS favourate, Tata Steel has support at 671-669 range. Keep an eye on ITC, Very good for long- term players who can apply KOI- Keep On Investing, in ITC to sell above 300 after 2 years. The pharma majors may move up once the Nifty stabilizes over 4381-83 level, and out perform in the next move. Those who are maintaining 50% del. in ZEEL can exit now and reenter at 301-306 range. Idea del. persons can wait and accumulate in case of a fall.
The correction is an opportunity?
The techs showed their strength but failed to enthuse the market except in TCS and Satyam but failed to hold on higher levels is a concern reflected in the fall from higher levels. The worst hit was the capital goods and the metal space.
As posted, the ONGC didn’t trade above 918 come down to 900 level but RIL traded above 1781 went to 1835+ level. Idea fared well in a negative market went to 129+ and IDFC showed its strength to stay above 126, above 129 it touched to 132+. The steels corrected from their higher levels as a structural adjustments in Tata Steel and Sail. There were no sign of concern for an immediate off load but wait and watch is the word of caution that came from the capital goods sector as it was the darling sector for bulls, offloaded first.
As posted, the ONGC didn’t trade above 918 come down to 900 level but RIL traded above 1781 went to 1835+ level. Idea fared well in a negative market went to 129+ and IDFC showed its strength to stay above 126, above 129 it touched to 132+. The steels corrected from their higher levels as a structural adjustments in Tata Steel and Sail. There were no sign of concern for an immediate off load but wait and watch is the word of caution that came from the capital goods sector as it was the darling sector for bulls, offloaded first.
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
No shocks quite calm!
The world markets are faring well with positive bias and the trend likely to continue. In our markets it shows the movement paused and likely to drift in case techs failed to enthuse today. Focus on leading tech companies, as they are likely to be re-rated as TCS results positive, Infosys acquired BPO arm, Satyam got two big orders.
The Nifty is good above 4466-67, until it breaches that level maintain long. The Infosys is strong above 1935, stoploss 1920; TCS strong above 1129 stoploss at 1116-15; Satyam good above 483 stop-loss at 475. The RIL, RCOM, Tatasteel are on their previous levels. SBI good above 1603-01, Relcap good above 1176 weak below 1163. IDEA is good above 126 and IDFC above 129.
ONGC becomes weak if it fails to trade above 918 and RIL fail to trade above 1781. The ITC has some move and something cooking in this counter, likely to flare above 158.
The Nifty is good above 4466-67, until it breaches that level maintain long. The Infosys is strong above 1935, stoploss 1920; TCS strong above 1129 stoploss at 1116-15; Satyam good above 483 stop-loss at 475. The RIL, RCOM, Tatasteel are on their previous levels. SBI good above 1603-01, Relcap good above 1176 weak below 1163. IDEA is good above 126 and IDFC above 129.
ONGC becomes weak if it fails to trade above 918 and RIL fail to trade above 1781. The ITC has some move and something cooking in this counter, likely to flare above 158.
Happy Rise in Banks
The sparkling up moves in all the PSU banks made screen in green colour. The morning session SBI was sub-dued as if it is likely to fall but once it crossed the 1566 and after 1573 zoomed to 1620 levels. The reverse is the case with Tata Steel showed strength in early trades came down to 691 levels. RCOM with news strength gained to all time high closing, more potential left. RIL stayed above the support level 1766 as posted. Nifty stayed above the immediate support level on 4493 through out the day is a positive sign.
Monday, July 16, 2007
The world records “HIGH”s!
The major indices in the world are recording all time highs. The Nifty engulfed in earnings season this weak but the business has to be continued. Today TCS results can change/confirm the view on techs future.
The Nifty support at the immediate level 4443-45, no shorts above 4491-86 level.The mood ticker is in favour of the bulls but the bears are spreading the negative sentiment as ‘valuations high’ at this point in time.
The RIL - good above 1766-65, weak below 1749., SBI- weak below 1536-39 good above 1563-66; RCOM good above 5549-51, weak below 533-31; Rel Cap- good above 1179 and weak below 1171. IDFC weak below 126.TCS is weak below 1121-23.
The del. suggested in Idea above 118 can wait to sell above 132-35 range and can add above 126 stop-loss @121. The metals and cements may correct from highs. In case of bear pressure prefer shorts in banks and cements.
The Nifty support at the immediate level 4443-45, no shorts above 4491-86 level.The mood ticker is in favour of the bulls but the bears are spreading the negative sentiment as ‘valuations high’ at this point in time.
The RIL - good above 1766-65, weak below 1749., SBI- weak below 1536-39 good above 1563-66; RCOM good above 5549-51, weak below 533-31; Rel Cap- good above 1179 and weak below 1171. IDFC weak below 126.TCS is weak below 1121-23.
The del. suggested in Idea above 118 can wait to sell above 132-35 range and can add above 126 stop-loss @121. The metals and cements may correct from highs. In case of bear pressure prefer shorts in banks and cements.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
The “Expansion-Extended”-global integration.
The indices will take southward journey as a correction (as posted on 8th June) only when the Sensex crosses the previous high. It usually happens when a stock crosses it’s previous high; it tends to touch a new high with 5-10% rise on previous high, then corrects and again crosses. So it also happens with the indices (on the long-term basis) extended the same rule, (Nifty has crossed the previous high 4360+), average 7% works out to be 3000+ points gain. In that case, Nifty journey may takes to a level of 4300*1.7 = 7100+. As Nifty reflects 50 companies, all companies won’t rise equally, on the first phase 3% rise works out to be 1290+ and Nifty could touch 5950-6020 ranges.
Even if we go by the P/E ratio rule, the current P/E works out to be 21.63 at 4509 and the historical experience used as a measure to extrapolate, the low P/E at 17-18 and high at 29-30 times. Even if there was no surprises in the growth in the earnings, the rule of “averages” helps to arrive P/E @ 17.5+29.5= 23.5, on a conservative basis Nifty could touch 4509*23.5/21.6 works out to be 4900+.
On the emotional positive trajectory, the earnings of the companies based on their growth plans and the Govt. spending is also very encouraging for the next five to seven years down the line. Just think of the visible earnings of the companies’ top line growth due to software & BPO’s opportunities. The potential investments in SEZs, malls and constructions by RIL, ONGC, DLF, Unitech, ADAG, Bharti, Munjals and other players. The expansion plans in power projects of NTPC, REL, Tata Power and transmission and the steel sector expansion by Tata Steel and Jindals.
The infrastructure expansion in roads, airports and in housing can invite more money in to the system. The food processing companies and outlets expansion spur the agriculture with a special focus on cash crops. The sugar companies expansion in ethanol projects. The oil exploration & natural gas and the end user companies expansion plans in refineries, power and fertilizers. The list can be extended to automobiles, cement pharma and other companies.
The new activities will emerge in mining, aviation, nuclear, biotech & life sciences and non-conventional energy sectors. To make all the plans a success and make money out of those works, just think of the multi- faceted roles to be played by the banks and the financial institutions, of course with insurance.
The whole effort of this “expansion”- to visualize the potential growth in India’s economy and the multiple effects. The long-term players benefit the most, as the fall becomes the best opportunity to accumulate and hold for better returns. The short-term traders survive by shorting to garner the scratch.
Even if we go by the P/E ratio rule, the current P/E works out to be 21.63 at 4509 and the historical experience used as a measure to extrapolate, the low P/E at 17-18 and high at 29-30 times. Even if there was no surprises in the growth in the earnings, the rule of “averages” helps to arrive P/E @ 17.5+29.5= 23.5, on a conservative basis Nifty could touch 4509*23.5/21.6 works out to be 4900+.
On the emotional positive trajectory, the earnings of the companies based on their growth plans and the Govt. spending is also very encouraging for the next five to seven years down the line. Just think of the visible earnings of the companies’ top line growth due to software & BPO’s opportunities. The potential investments in SEZs, malls and constructions by RIL, ONGC, DLF, Unitech, ADAG, Bharti, Munjals and other players. The expansion plans in power projects of NTPC, REL, Tata Power and transmission and the steel sector expansion by Tata Steel and Jindals.
The infrastructure expansion in roads, airports and in housing can invite more money in to the system. The food processing companies and outlets expansion spur the agriculture with a special focus on cash crops. The sugar companies expansion in ethanol projects. The oil exploration & natural gas and the end user companies expansion plans in refineries, power and fertilizers. The list can be extended to automobiles, cement pharma and other companies.
The new activities will emerge in mining, aviation, nuclear, biotech & life sciences and non-conventional energy sectors. To make all the plans a success and make money out of those works, just think of the multi- faceted roles to be played by the banks and the financial institutions, of course with insurance.
The whole effort of this “expansion”- to visualize the potential growth in India’s economy and the multiple effects. The long-term players benefit the most, as the fall becomes the best opportunity to accumulate and hold for better returns. The short-term traders survive by shorting to garner the scratch.
Friday, July 13, 2007
The Global cues are flashy!
The global markets too in bullish mood and the markets are jumping to test new highs every time. The Indian markets are in jubilant mood as the FIIs are pouring money and now new money in the form of SPACs is coming- a threat to the managements with low percentage of share holding.
Nifty is comfortably placed in support of bulls so long the low does not breach 4411-09 levels.
No big news, exporters get sops and clearances to SEZs. Today it is likely that RIL can break the range bound, above 1718 strong and below 1703 weak. The stop-losses are either side. The reality may take a halt from higher side. The SBI is expected to see action- above 1563 up below 1541-43 is down wards. IDFC is good above 126.85 and stop-loss at 124. Relcap is weak below 1153-51 good above 1171-69.
The pressure from bears can bring RCOM to 541-43 level, Steels may correct a bit at the fag end of the session. The move initiated in telecoms like MTNL may continue, VSNL expected to participate and ONGC to support bulls if it trades above 891 and stop-loss at 883.
Nifty is comfortably placed in support of bulls so long the low does not breach 4411-09 levels.
No big news, exporters get sops and clearances to SEZs. Today it is likely that RIL can break the range bound, above 1718 strong and below 1703 weak. The stop-losses are either side. The reality may take a halt from higher side. The SBI is expected to see action- above 1563 up below 1541-43 is down wards. IDFC is good above 126.85 and stop-loss at 124. Relcap is weak below 1153-51 good above 1171-69.
The pressure from bears can bring RCOM to 541-43 level, Steels may correct a bit at the fag end of the session. The move initiated in telecoms like MTNL may continue, VSNL expected to participate and ONGC to support bulls if it trades above 891 and stop-loss at 883.
The move is solid and up-wards!
The markets showed a solid move participation from the laggards of the past and support from the leaders like ABB, BHEL, RCOM, Bharti, ICICI and last but not least is from metal space.
Those who took del. in Hindalco can prune by 50% at 168-69 ranges and the rest above 173-75 or at 158 as the case may be. As a matter of fact the screen is bullish but it stretched too far amidst of the gloomy views from leading brokerage houses. In case of a correction beyond normal on any single day can break the whole faith and the long-term bullish story of our markets. If we go back to history, the moves are sharp and wild but the solace is the intra day volatility is not there. So 50% saved but the up moves are very much stretched.
Nifty has good support at 4245-4241 levels. In case RIL trades below 1686 is the first signs of breaks in the up trend. The bullishness will end when RCOM trades below 503-501 level and Tata Steel trades below 606-608 levels. So no shorts for short gains but no longs for a longer period.
Those who took del. in Hindalco can prune by 50% at 168-69 ranges and the rest above 173-75 or at 158 as the case may be. As a matter of fact the screen is bullish but it stretched too far amidst of the gloomy views from leading brokerage houses. In case of a correction beyond normal on any single day can break the whole faith and the long-term bullish story of our markets. If we go back to history, the moves are sharp and wild but the solace is the intra day volatility is not there. So 50% saved but the up moves are very much stretched.
Nifty has good support at 4245-4241 levels. In case RIL trades below 1686 is the first signs of breaks in the up trend. The bullishness will end when RCOM trades below 503-501 level and Tata Steel trades below 606-608 levels. So no shorts for short gains but no longs for a longer period.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
The move is solid and up-wards!
The markets showed a solid move participation from the laggards of the past and support from the leaders like ABB, BHEL, RCOM, Bharti, ICICI and last but not least is from metal space.
Those who took del. in Hindalco can prune by 50% at 168-69 ranges and the rest above 173-75 or at 158 as the case may be. As a matter of fact the screen is bullish but it stretched too far amidst of the gloomy views from leading brokerage houses. In case of a correction beyond normal on any single day can break the whole faith and the long-term bullish story of our markets. If we go back to history, the moves are sharp and wild but the solace is the intra day volatility is not there. So 50% saved but the up moves are very much stretched.
Nifty has good support at 4245-4241 levels. In case RIL trades below 1686 is the first signs of breaks in the up trend. The bullishness will end when RCOM trades below 503-501 level and Tata Steel trades below 606-608 levels. So no shorts for short gains but no longs for a longer period.
Those who took del. in Hindalco can prune by 50% at 168-69 ranges and the rest above 173-75 or at 158 as the case may be. As a matter of fact the screen is bullish but it stretched too far amidst of the gloomy views from leading brokerage houses. In case of a correction beyond normal on any single day can break the whole faith and the long-term bullish story of our markets. If we go back to history, the moves are sharp and wild but the solace is the intra day volatility is not there. So 50% saved but the up moves are very much stretched.
Nifty has good support at 4245-4241 levels. In case RIL trades below 1686 is the first signs of breaks in the up trend. The bullishness will end when RCOM trades below 503-501 level and Tata Steel trades below 606-608 levels. So no shorts for short gains but no longs for a longer period.
No break in bullishness?.
The bears are looking the height the indices climbed but where as the bulls are visualizing the headroom upward journey to be made. What a clear distinction in approach?.
The Infosys results came, gone with wounds and thumps down by street, but the over all market was clearly bullish even at the top. Can the mid cap its survive in profits or take a cue from “igate” to report losses?. In case of loses what about the recent valuations?.
As posted earlier the viewers could have observed that Tata steel strong above 626 and yester day low was 627 run-up to 561+, RCOM has good support at 536 and it got the support. Those who took del. in ZEE at 295-300 range, as suggested went to 32-330 level, so reduce by 50%, wait till it trades below 308-09 for the rest 50%. Hindalco made an up move up to 158 but could not trade above, this time when it crosses 158, good for del. stop-loss @154.
The news that can influence is RIL gas may be that could be the reason to float between 1693-1718 for the last 6 trading sessions. It is preparing to bid in US for refinery. Now HLL (HUL) in news, take over attempt by Colgate.
Dabur merges Dabur foods, stay long with stop- loss @ 101.
Nifty is good above 4351-53 levels, but it unlikely that it can stay a long period in case TCS and Wipro disappoint more.
No major technical changes happened. Incase of bear pressure prefer short in SBI, RIL. ICICI has good support above 953-55 levels. MTNL will continue the up move stop-loss @ 163. Nuclear news-NTPC, BHEL, ABB and Punjlloyd.
The Infosys results came, gone with wounds and thumps down by street, but the over all market was clearly bullish even at the top. Can the mid cap its survive in profits or take a cue from “igate” to report losses?. In case of loses what about the recent valuations?.
As posted earlier the viewers could have observed that Tata steel strong above 626 and yester day low was 627 run-up to 561+, RCOM has good support at 536 and it got the support. Those who took del. in ZEE at 295-300 range, as suggested went to 32-330 level, so reduce by 50%, wait till it trades below 308-09 for the rest 50%. Hindalco made an up move up to 158 but could not trade above, this time when it crosses 158, good for del. stop-loss @154.
The news that can influence is RIL gas may be that could be the reason to float between 1693-1718 for the last 6 trading sessions. It is preparing to bid in US for refinery. Now HLL (HUL) in news, take over attempt by Colgate.
Dabur merges Dabur foods, stay long with stop- loss @ 101.
Nifty is good above 4351-53 levels, but it unlikely that it can stay a long period in case TCS and Wipro disappoint more.
No major technical changes happened. Incase of bear pressure prefer short in SBI, RIL. ICICI has good support above 953-55 levels. MTNL will continue the up move stop-loss @ 163. Nuclear news-NTPC, BHEL, ABB and Punjlloyd.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
The D-day! USA in red!
There were no major changes in the technical levels of other stocks except Infosys as results were below expectations as expected but the street reaction is important. Infy weak below 2020 stop loss 2041-43, TCS weak below 119189 stop loss 1201-03, RCOM strong above 539-41 level, weak market may touch 51-19 levels. The RIL below 1705-06 weak, SBI weak below 1563. The Nifty has support at 4351-49 level, below that @4321-23.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Tech ADRs shine, rest is good!
The Nifty could get support at 4383-81 level. The RIL should trade above 1715 to see Nifty to trade above 4403-06. The results of HDFC can influence the bank stocks. The cements likely to correct by 2-3%. The hindalco good above 158-159 for del. stoploss @154.
The SBI is good above 1563-66 level and ONGC above 886-85, RIL above 1706-08, RCOM above 551-49 Tata steel good above 626. The stocks are good above those levels for long, below those levels go short in RIL & SBI.
Scrips in news- Suzlon negative news, RIL gas positive, tech results can influence the direction in advance – a caution.
The SBI is good above 1563-66 level and ONGC above 886-85, RIL above 1706-08, RCOM above 551-49 Tata steel good above 626. The stocks are good above those levels for long, below those levels go short in RIL & SBI.
Scrips in news- Suzlon negative news, RIL gas positive, tech results can influence the direction in advance – a caution.
Monday, July 09, 2007
THE POWER OF BULLISHNESS!
The bulls are showing their strength in managing the Nifty with rotation of heavy weights moving up. This time by ONGC, Bharti BHEL, L&T and Banks. It is likely that the tomorrow cycle will come with RIL, ICICI, SUZLON, HLL and ITC. The persons in del. in ZEEL can cut their exposure by 75%, Satyam by 50%.
The Ster made a good move but Hindalco did not, but may tomorrow?. Today also RIL failed to trade above 1718 but did not cut 1701. SBI above 1549-51 levels gave good returns and morning up move sustained in ONGC above 881-83 level. The techs consolidated, Infy above 1979 good above 2020 is solid up move. TCS above 1181-83 is good. Incase those who took del. above 1129-31 levels can reduce their holding by 50%.
It is very likely that the Infy results will change the course of journey. I think the RIL will touch 1580, SBI may touch 1430-39 levels before a fresh upward move can be expected.
The Ster made a good move but Hindalco did not, but may tomorrow?. Today also RIL failed to trade above 1718 but did not cut 1701. SBI above 1549-51 levels gave good returns and morning up move sustained in ONGC above 881-83 level. The techs consolidated, Infy above 1979 good above 2020 is solid up move. TCS above 1181-83 is good. Incase those who took del. above 1129-31 levels can reduce their holding by 50%.
It is very likely that the Infy results will change the course of journey. I think the RIL will touch 1580, SBI may touch 1430-39 levels before a fresh upward move can be expected.
The likely to open above 4400?
The global cues are positive and the mood in Indian market is also favouring the bulls, can help the Nifty to float above 4400 and it seems bulls determined to touch 4480 as posted in earlier posts.
The scrips in news- Hindalco & Sterlite, the copper trading at 7-week highs. The RIL-(slightly negative) gas KG-blocks issue, ANIL, now a trillionaire, the companies likely to move up. MTNL acquires Suntel in Srilanka.
Nifty shall not trade below 4361-63 levels to continue the up move. The RIL shall trade above 1715-16 level, RCOM above 556 and the Pharma shall move to equate themselves in the upward journey. The techs changed the bottoms support, as Infy above 1955-56 strong, Wipro above 516-18 and TCS above 1153 are strong. Those who took del. in Satyam and in ZEEL can wait until Satyam stays above 483-81 levels and ZEEL above 306-05 to gain more. Tata Steel good above 625, SAIL above 132. The SBI has become weak until it stays below 1549-51 level and ONGC below 883, technically weak.
In case of profit booking pressure, cements and banks are weak.
The scrips in news- Hindalco & Sterlite, the copper trading at 7-week highs. The RIL-(slightly negative) gas KG-blocks issue, ANIL, now a trillionaire, the companies likely to move up. MTNL acquires Suntel in Srilanka.
Nifty shall not trade below 4361-63 levels to continue the up move. The RIL shall trade above 1715-16 level, RCOM above 556 and the Pharma shall move to equate themselves in the upward journey. The techs changed the bottoms support, as Infy above 1955-56 strong, Wipro above 516-18 and TCS above 1153 are strong. Those who took del. in Satyam and in ZEEL can wait until Satyam stays above 483-81 levels and ZEEL above 306-05 to gain more. Tata Steel good above 625, SAIL above 132. The SBI has become weak until it stays below 1549-51 level and ONGC below 883, technically weak.
In case of profit booking pressure, cements and banks are weak.
Saturday, July 07, 2007
Stellar performance!
The markets showed a beautiful up move beyond expectation. I was under the impression of down ward move as the other markets correcting. But technically the market did not trade below 4349 even foe 5 minutes, saved me from my shorts.
The day went long enjoying the up move with out participation. The techs moved very well as anticipated Satyam made a run-up after 473-475 level to 490+ (read 4th July post) and likely to touch 520-30 range. TCS above 1129, Infosys above1935 are strong but I made no money as I was expecting a correction any time.
I made my shorts in RIL below 1713 level, SBI below 1549-46 level. Once the levels crossed waitng for a chance that did not turned except in RIL. The greatest regret is I could not believe the up move and failed to take delivery in Satyam. After all it is the beauty and greatness of the market.
The day went long enjoying the up move with out participation. The techs moved very well as anticipated Satyam made a run-up after 473-475 level to 490+ (read 4th July post) and likely to touch 520-30 range. TCS above 1129, Infosys above1935 are strong but I made no money as I was expecting a correction any time.
I made my shorts in RIL below 1713 level, SBI below 1549-46 level. Once the levels crossed waitng for a chance that did not turned except in RIL. The greatest regret is I could not believe the up move and failed to take delivery in Satyam. After all it is the beauty and greatness of the market.
Friday, July 06, 2007
The red spread across the world?.
The world indices are in red, so we can be no exception at least for this day.
The Nifty may not cross 4363-65 levels and may test 4291-93 as the volatility increased from yesterday. The low should below 4342 and it should trade below 4349 levels for the first half an hour to confirm the above condition. The major supporters like RIL shall not trade above 1714-15 level and low should below 1703, SBI shall not trade above 1553-56, low shall register below 1539, ICICI high shall not touch 1011-13, RCOM low shall register below 539.
The run-up in the autos may take a halt and the reality correction will continue. The UBS positive rating on Tata Steel will help it to stay above 608-09 levels and will advance further in future. The long-term del. holders shall prune their del. positions more than 50%, as already requested to off- load by 50%.
The Nifty may not cross 4363-65 levels and may test 4291-93 as the volatility increased from yesterday. The low should below 4342 and it should trade below 4349 levels for the first half an hour to confirm the above condition. The major supporters like RIL shall not trade above 1714-15 level and low should below 1703, SBI shall not trade above 1553-56, low shall register below 1539, ICICI high shall not touch 1011-13, RCOM low shall register below 539.
The run-up in the autos may take a halt and the reality correction will continue. The UBS positive rating on Tata Steel will help it to stay above 608-09 levels and will advance further in future. The long-term del. holders shall prune their del. positions more than 50%, as already requested to off- load by 50%.
Thursday, July 05, 2007
The Bulls fight fierce, before they yield?.
The very nature of the fight at the top can be seen at the high of its spirits to trigger all stop-losses on both sides. The power fight can be clearly observed on the streets for the last 4-5 trading sessions. Can the China red-effect percolate tomorrow to us ?.
The DLF brought much needed relief to bulls and sentiment as it could trade above the issue price in spite of many negative views. The sentiment is in favour of bulls but stock specific action can be seen, as there was no run-up but up move for those who hold for some time if not for delivery.
FOLLOW UP : The RIL could not trade above 1721 came down to support level @1683-1681 levels, the same is with SBI, could not trade above 1566, the RCOM traded below 539 brought it to 526 level but bounced back to 552. The Strength in ICICI, bottom support of ONGC and bounce back of RIL from lows brought Nifty to 4355 levels.
The DLF brought much needed relief to bulls and sentiment as it could trade above the issue price in spite of many negative views. The sentiment is in favour of bulls but stock specific action can be seen, as there was no run-up but up move for those who hold for some time if not for delivery.
FOLLOW UP : The RIL could not trade above 1721 came down to support level @1683-1681 levels, the same is with SBI, could not trade above 1566, the RCOM traded below 539 brought it to 526 level but bounced back to 552. The Strength in ICICI, bottom support of ONGC and bounce back of RIL from lows brought Nifty to 4355 levels.
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