The FII are not interested to reverse their positions in India. The short selling by borrowing will open a new window of opportunity in the financial sector of lending and borrowing the shares from our MFs and DIIs. The financial reforms will be done with this bitter experience likely to provide a congenial environment that encourages the local money flow to capital markets. The reports suggest that 2% of Indians are investing and then imagine this be 10% in next 5 years, and the Index levels. But for now the markets are in full FII selling grip, there was no bad news except their bad financial conditions.
The bleeding in the Asian markets continuing and we can be no exception for today. Unless the FIIs agree to reverse their positions, the situation can see no light for next one month. The over done of FIIs shows their nature of investment style and the good part is to place some restrictions on their distress selling to curb this kind of mayhem in markets. The emerging markets are by nature young and can not take the load in the cases of crisis of the present nature.
The FII investment guidelines shall carry a clause that they shall invest for long term at least for 5 years and they shall not press the selling button for not more than 10% their holding thorough open market operations, can resort for off market bulk deals.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Just remember…...
The history is not far way to make it difficult to recollect the past happening happened on the Indian bourses just before the crash. The challenge is to accept the reality and live with the situation offered or created. The present situation in the market was expected, to touch this 2900 level well in advance and was published in my 25th August posting.
The Nifty index level was simply a number to quote but the timing of buying stocks never depend on the index level unless the choice falls on index basket. The fall of index will help us to identify more blue chips as there was an opportunity opened to invest for next two years perspective. The trader any way live for the moment to day swing and grossly depend on the price fluctuation derived from the demand and supply but the investor is entirely a different entity, wait for the opportunity and jump to grab it.
So investor can start buy in stocks whose economic cycle is in the up swing or likely to get that advantage. Now the markets are almost bottomed out. I used to cry the same way I am doing now when the market topped at 6200 level and advised the investors to first sell the holdings and with more emphasis not to buy at that level. Now am just reversing the statement but the cry is with same volume.
Please go to the budget allocations and try to take advantage of the benefits from the excise & customs reductions that immensely benefit the companies. The Indian economy is robust and likely to take advantage of the global crisis in its favour, so try to enjoy the fall from these level instead of developing fear. The earlier article suggested for those who already invested.
The Nifty index level was simply a number to quote but the timing of buying stocks never depend on the index level unless the choice falls on index basket. The fall of index will help us to identify more blue chips as there was an opportunity opened to invest for next two years perspective. The trader any way live for the moment to day swing and grossly depend on the price fluctuation derived from the demand and supply but the investor is entirely a different entity, wait for the opportunity and jump to grab it.
So investor can start buy in stocks whose economic cycle is in the up swing or likely to get that advantage. Now the markets are almost bottomed out. I used to cry the same way I am doing now when the market topped at 6200 level and advised the investors to first sell the holdings and with more emphasis not to buy at that level. Now am just reversing the statement but the cry is with same volume.
Please go to the budget allocations and try to take advantage of the benefits from the excise & customs reductions that immensely benefit the companies. The Indian economy is robust and likely to take advantage of the global crisis in its favour, so try to enjoy the fall from these level instead of developing fear. The earlier article suggested for those who already invested.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
The mercy at the bottom…
The markets were spared at the bottom as the stocks still holding above the earlier lows when it registered two days back. The special treatment of leveling the levels of SBI to day happened but the stock is still in bulls grip. The FMCG stocks are the ones stood against the bear hammering.
The early statement of markets bottomed out can be confirmed incase our Nifty crosses the immediate resistance at 3255-50 level and the low shall be above 3181 is good, even 3145 is also OK. The Reliance and the other majors like LT, BHEL, HDFC and the tech majors are exhibiting a better bottom for now. So tomorrow a rally of 100 points at Nifty can through the much required relief at the earliest.
The redemption pressure is mounting as day’s passes and the negative news adding fuel to fire. So wait and watch till the worst crystallizes as a solid foundation to the markets at the bottom before jumping for grabbing the mouth watering prices of the blue chips.
The early statement of markets bottomed out can be confirmed incase our Nifty crosses the immediate resistance at 3255-50 level and the low shall be above 3181 is good, even 3145 is also OK. The Reliance and the other majors like LT, BHEL, HDFC and the tech majors are exhibiting a better bottom for now. So tomorrow a rally of 100 points at Nifty can through the much required relief at the earliest.
The redemption pressure is mounting as day’s passes and the negative news adding fuel to fire. So wait and watch till the worst crystallizes as a solid foundation to the markets at the bottom before jumping for grabbing the mouth watering prices of the blue chips.
No longs ….
The trades are now very much confining to intraday but no longs till markets cross the 3350-3400 decisively on Nifty.
The markets are dwindling to positive and negative news as the case may be but won’t go any where from here. The regular readers will find the piece of news about the 20-20 percent move.
This time the markets met the final leg of fall in case it goes down, it will be confined to the worst scenario case to 2630-80 level that to after a consolidation of 40-50 trading days.
The economic activity will be centered around the infra structure building like ports, air ports and SEZs. The mining activity will take place heavily in 2010 onwards. But for now the projects initiated like power and distribution companies will do well in coming months along with the cable manufacturers.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long it trades above 3130-3120 level. The US and other Asian markets red will force us to open in red but no fresh shors are advised at this point. The markets will get short covering above 3280 level and will add at least150 points. The Reliance above 1460-80 level will spur the short covering activity until it reaches 1680 level, then the market is ripe for fresh shorts that will give safety and high returns with out nightmares.
The markets are dwindling to positive and negative news as the case may be but won’t go any where from here. The regular readers will find the piece of news about the 20-20 percent move.
This time the markets met the final leg of fall in case it goes down, it will be confined to the worst scenario case to 2630-80 level that to after a consolidation of 40-50 trading days.
The economic activity will be centered around the infra structure building like ports, air ports and SEZs. The mining activity will take place heavily in 2010 onwards. But for now the projects initiated like power and distribution companies will do well in coming months along with the cable manufacturers.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long it trades above 3130-3120 level. The US and other Asian markets red will force us to open in red but no fresh shors are advised at this point. The markets will get short covering above 3280 level and will add at least150 points. The Reliance above 1460-80 level will spur the short covering activity until it reaches 1680 level, then the market is ripe for fresh shorts that will give safety and high returns with out nightmares.
Monday, October 20, 2008
The Repo rate cut effect…
The RBI has taken a bold step to reduce the Repo rate by 100 basis points. The markets would have welcomed other wise by 500 points on the announcement itself but failed to hold the gains made during the trading hours.
The markets are now likely to move up from these levels in case if the global indices won’t take severe knock. The only concern at this point is the corporate performance. The results announced till date are not bothering but the fear of future is threatening the growth in advancement of the Indices as a whole.
The Nifty draggers like tech lot bounced with vengeance and RIL got enough support at the lower level except DLF. The ONGC, BHEL, Unitech and DLF may try to boost the Nifty to cross the 3350 level which is very crucial.
The markets are now likely to move up from these levels in case if the global indices won’t take severe knock. The only concern at this point is the corporate performance. The results announced till date are not bothering but the fear of future is threatening the growth in advancement of the Indices as a whole.
The Nifty draggers like tech lot bounced with vengeance and RIL got enough support at the lower level except DLF. The ONGC, BHEL, Unitech and DLF may try to boost the Nifty to cross the 3350 level which is very crucial.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Still far away but…….
The Indian markets were in deep trouble at the face of it. The Nifty was deep in red and far away from the near term support. The brutal damage was done from the heavy weights like RIL, RPL, ONGC, RCOM and reality & Infra majors like DLF, UNITECH, L T and Rel Infra apart from the metal sector as a lot. The banking sector stood against the onslaught of Bear hammering in spite of the global financial turmoil. The fresh short positions in the beaten down sectors will be very dangerous as they can get trapped easily.
Now the Nifty will get fresh lease of life only when it trades above 3350 and the first batch of strong resistance points starts from 3600-3620 level.
The RIL has to cross the resistance at 1550 and trade above 1420 at least for two trading days. The ONGC has to cross and trade above 850 level.
The reality sector majors except UNITECH are exhibiting some bargain hunting buying in DLF, IB Real estate and in GMR infra.
The long term buyers can start buying the blue chips irrespective of their price and the fear of loss. The Indian economy is continued to do well despite the global slow down. At this point it looks like the emerging new age world economy is shrugging off the traditional & old business icons and paving for a robust vibrant economy.
Now the Nifty will get fresh lease of life only when it trades above 3350 and the first batch of strong resistance points starts from 3600-3620 level.
The RIL has to cross the resistance at 1550 and trade above 1420 at least for two trading days. The ONGC has to cross and trade above 850 level.
The reality sector majors except UNITECH are exhibiting some bargain hunting buying in DLF, IB Real estate and in GMR infra.
The long term buyers can start buying the blue chips irrespective of their price and the fear of loss. The Indian economy is continued to do well despite the global slow down. At this point it looks like the emerging new age world economy is shrugging off the traditional & old business icons and paving for a robust vibrant economy.
The Projections & Targets…..
The technical analysts try to provide the targets for both the Index and for the selected stocks. They offer normally to retail investors much later than they were circulated among the dedicated. The beautiful projections enable the retail investor to go for loans and the threats of further fall forces them to liquidate their positions in distress.
These unfortunate situations always happen on both the extremes of the stock market movements. The seasoned investors are also prey to these kinds of statements because of the GREED & FEAR. I request the investors to refrain from these kinds of emotional swings while investing and exiting.
Those who look for a multi-bagger opportunity, the markets are now opening the doors. Instead of investing at the fag end of the rally and go bust in down turn, it is prudent to provide some time to conduct research to identify the sectors that out perform the Index in future. In case you need to get some guidance over the sectoral out performance and promising sector of tomorrow please go to the older posts.
The economic conditions have changed but the bright future for the growth sectors are in tact. So it is very important to invest & maintain in stock from a promising sector portfolio to make a Multibagger rather than simply picking a stock from the lot.
These unfortunate situations always happen on both the extremes of the stock market movements. The seasoned investors are also prey to these kinds of statements because of the GREED & FEAR. I request the investors to refrain from these kinds of emotional swings while investing and exiting.
Those who look for a multi-bagger opportunity, the markets are now opening the doors. Instead of investing at the fag end of the rally and go bust in down turn, it is prudent to provide some time to conduct research to identify the sectors that out perform the Index in future. In case you need to get some guidance over the sectoral out performance and promising sector of tomorrow please go to the older posts.
The economic conditions have changed but the bright future for the growth sectors are in tact. So it is very important to invest & maintain in stock from a promising sector portfolio to make a Multibagger rather than simply picking a stock from the lot.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
The trimmed excesses….
The markets are bound to rise as they fell. This is a natural phenomena inevitably happens whether some body likes or not.
The concern at this hour is “how fast and by what time?”. This is the common question lingering in every investors mind. Now just imagine some body met with an accident and was admitted in a hospital, placed in intensive care. Then the question will be of What?. Whether it is survival or surprise on the happening?. Then every body will accept with joy that the patient is alive and will be discharged soon after surgery and due care. The same situation is happened to the financial markets across the globe, all are hospitalized, some are in ICU, surviving on Govt. intervention and some are in specialists care.
So my sincere request to investors is to for get reading the daily news of financial happening unless you prefer to be a day/swing trader. The best thing is keep averaging to the limit some body can, enjoy dreaming the golden days that are being manifested.
The only trouble with the recent young investors is the very nature demanding the high valuations that were there and as a matter of fact they paid for the boom. Now the situation is quiet different, the excess valuations of high P/E valuations above 50 were gone and the realist levels of 9-14 are ruling.
So adjust to the reality and accept the truth, keep on investing in companies that delivered high rate of growth over 3-4 years.
The concern at this hour is “how fast and by what time?”. This is the common question lingering in every investors mind. Now just imagine some body met with an accident and was admitted in a hospital, placed in intensive care. Then the question will be of What?. Whether it is survival or surprise on the happening?. Then every body will accept with joy that the patient is alive and will be discharged soon after surgery and due care. The same situation is happened to the financial markets across the globe, all are hospitalized, some are in ICU, surviving on Govt. intervention and some are in specialists care.
So my sincere request to investors is to for get reading the daily news of financial happening unless you prefer to be a day/swing trader. The best thing is keep averaging to the limit some body can, enjoy dreaming the golden days that are being manifested.
The only trouble with the recent young investors is the very nature demanding the high valuations that were there and as a matter of fact they paid for the boom. Now the situation is quiet different, the excess valuations of high P/E valuations above 50 were gone and the realist levels of 9-14 are ruling.
So adjust to the reality and accept the truth, keep on investing in companies that delivered high rate of growth over 3-4 years.
Friday, October 17, 2008
A ray of hope….
I think that the Indian markets are very close to bottom out for time being at least. The stocks are showing resilience to move down in-spite of the best efforts by the Bears.
As posted yesterday the infrastructure stocks are finding buyers at the lower levels. There was a clear hope down the line for next two years we are likely to manage and may cross the previous highs based on our internal consumption despite of the global turmoil that we see now.
The crude is falling, metals plummet gives a scope to ease the fall in inflation. The central govt. likely to announce more investor friendly investments norms and the FII inflow will start coming back to India after Jan-09.
But for now the markets yester day recovered on the back of short covering and some kind of buying at the bottom. The worst is not over as the stocks like HUL, LT, BHEL, HDFC, HDFC Bank, SBI and Bharti have not tasted the Bear beating. So Nifty likely to see some lower levels but it won’t hurt as the most already lost their value.
The Nifty likely to cross the 3660 level and may touch the resistance at 3930-3885 level in the coming months. The next fall will complete the bear hammering and the Bulls will take charge. At this time it looks like a joke as it was looked impossible to see a downward move when the indices climbing from 5800 to 6200 level.
The retail investors always FIXED ON THE WRONG SIDE, because of the PRICE LURING while moving up and FEAR OF LOSS while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE that is IMPORTANT to buy a STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.
As posted yesterday the infrastructure stocks are finding buyers at the lower levels. There was a clear hope down the line for next two years we are likely to manage and may cross the previous highs based on our internal consumption despite of the global turmoil that we see now.
The crude is falling, metals plummet gives a scope to ease the fall in inflation. The central govt. likely to announce more investor friendly investments norms and the FII inflow will start coming back to India after Jan-09.
But for now the markets yester day recovered on the back of short covering and some kind of buying at the bottom. The worst is not over as the stocks like HUL, LT, BHEL, HDFC, HDFC Bank, SBI and Bharti have not tasted the Bear beating. So Nifty likely to see some lower levels but it won’t hurt as the most already lost their value.
The Nifty likely to cross the 3660 level and may touch the resistance at 3930-3885 level in the coming months. The next fall will complete the bear hammering and the Bulls will take charge. At this time it looks like a joke as it was looked impossible to see a downward move when the indices climbing from 5800 to 6200 level.
The retail investors always FIXED ON THE WRONG SIDE, because of the PRICE LURING while moving up and FEAR OF LOSS while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE that is IMPORTANT to buy a STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
The worrying worries….
The situation at India is not worsen but accepting the troubles of the big brother-US. The markets are adjusting to the ground realities whether we like it or not.
The situation at India is also worsening due the redemption pressure as the markets are plunging day after day with out a relief.
The Nifty has been testing its bottom support as it deeper than the expectations of the most. As discussed yester day, the Nifty immediate support at 3365-80 was taken out yesterday and the closing was much below the level. The Indian markets are used to follow the US and other markets when they are in bull mode but now going a head while in down turn.
The markets will be considered stabilized when the Reliance high crosses 1750 and closes above 1685 level. The earlier discussed level to ONGC is still valid-it has to cross the 1020 level and trade above 960 levels to see the down trend halted. The Nifty has to cross the 3680 level to see the down turn put a halt. The real estate and the infra structure stocks are being in accumulation mode even at this disparate situation.
The stocks like Rel Cap and HDFC are being beaten down and will be continued due to their exposure to Mutual funds business, now a drag to pull up.
The situation at India is also worsening due the redemption pressure as the markets are plunging day after day with out a relief.
The Nifty has been testing its bottom support as it deeper than the expectations of the most. As discussed yester day, the Nifty immediate support at 3365-80 was taken out yesterday and the closing was much below the level. The Indian markets are used to follow the US and other markets when they are in bull mode but now going a head while in down turn.
The markets will be considered stabilized when the Reliance high crosses 1750 and closes above 1685 level. The earlier discussed level to ONGC is still valid-it has to cross the 1020 level and trade above 960 levels to see the down trend halted. The Nifty has to cross the 3680 level to see the down turn put a halt. The real estate and the infra structure stocks are being in accumulation mode even at this disparate situation.
The stocks like Rel Cap and HDFC are being beaten down and will be continued due to their exposure to Mutual funds business, now a drag to pull up.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The doubts in …..
The markets were in doubt about the concerns in the liquidity situation and the redemption pressure. Till date every body said they are sitting in cash and can grab the opportunity but the situations changed to a different dimension- CASH CRUNCH. The global situation for now came to a halt but the internal situation is brewing to worse.
The markets got resistance as expected yesterday at 3640-60 range, the high touched at 3648.25. Now the immediate support was at 3365-80 level on the down side and Nifty has to trade above 3650 level to see the down trend in our markets to take a halt.
The last night US markets and now the Asian markets are shedding the gain from the rally experienced two days back. The situation here can no different from them. The NBFCs are selling shares pledged; the FIIs are continuous to enjoy selling at this distressed levels may cap the up side rally.
The Nifty has to trade above 3570 levels for a buying, but the resistance was at 3534-38 level. The supports existed at 3460 level which may not hold but the 3441-33 level may come to rescue.
The markets got resistance as expected yesterday at 3640-60 range, the high touched at 3648.25. Now the immediate support was at 3365-80 level on the down side and Nifty has to trade above 3650 level to see the down trend in our markets to take a halt.
The last night US markets and now the Asian markets are shedding the gain from the rally experienced two days back. The situation here can no different from them. The NBFCs are selling shares pledged; the FIIs are continuous to enjoy selling at this distressed levels may cap the up side rally.
The Nifty has to trade above 3570 levels for a buying, but the resistance was at 3534-38 level. The supports existed at 3460 level which may not hold but the 3441-33 level may come to rescue.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Is the worst is over?
The global financial jitters are over as the govt. intervention is timely and enough to bail out the ailing institutions.
The markets across the globe are in green and enjoying the investor support for the blue-chip stocks. The Indian markets are also likely to continue to enjoy the up move.
Now the crude oil is down, inflation is receding the equities will offer good returns to investors from here. But the markets may fall once again after the shorts are covered and the move to big leap will be originated from 3000-2900 level.
This up move may take the Nifty to 3660-40 level as the Reliance, ONGC, RPL, LT and HDFC are not fully participated.
The markets across the globe are in green and enjoying the investor support for the blue-chip stocks. The Indian markets are also likely to continue to enjoy the up move.
Now the crude oil is down, inflation is receding the equities will offer good returns to investors from here. But the markets may fall once again after the shorts are covered and the move to big leap will be originated from 3000-2900 level.
This up move may take the Nifty to 3660-40 level as the Reliance, ONGC, RPL, LT and HDFC are not fully participated.
Monday, October 06, 2008
An effort to remind…u again...
It is easy to say about the happenings happened earlier but the difficult question will be to look in to the future.
Every body is talking, saying some thing or other about the markets that they are now in bear grip and things like that as of now I am doing the same thing but…
The churning in the markets is to say cheers & thumps-up to the future leaders of the next BULL Run…..
An effort to remind…. In my posting titled… The BEST chance to overcome…dt 25-08-08…
The markets are consolidating at this stage where the Nifty made some anchor at 4200-4300 level. The markets very likely to move further to 5100 level if it trades above 4500 level (with out touching 4080-4100 level) which is very crucial resistance to cross, other wise the markets likely to see one more deep correction that could take back first to 3500 level, later to 3180-3130 level, if worst case developed then to a level that was available at 2940-3040 range, came in the last week of July-06. The July, 2006 levels may not come to Nifty as it undergone a series of changes in the composition, higher capitalization stocks like DLF, UNITECH, Power Grid, now the Rpower being included by 10th Sep-08. The Indian markets are taking the earlier lead while falling and even in the rise, but the global crisis may not let it move in unidirectional up move. At the current valuations, the age old thumb rule method of identifying the stocks like P/E is still high at 18.25 as per NSE, when compared to the historic movements. The recent worry that has developed in the investors mind was due to the high valuations enjoyed few months back are not available inspite of good earnings. As a matter of fact these things were already discounted by the markets, factored in good news can never trigger up move. So those sweet memories are now sweated, cannot be demanded then the euphoria generated was to attract the scapegoats to distribute and make HARD CASH. Those deceived lots have to throw away the acquired valuable assets as useless scrap, then the markets will bounce with vengeance for that insult, until then just get in and get out.
And in my other posting ……….
The roller coaster…. The Nifty has support first support at 4449 and at 4421-16 level which is crucial and the markets shell not get any supply of shorts at this level. If Nifty could trade above 4481-3 level is a bullish sign but the high had to be crossed the minor resistance at 4505-08 level for this day.
The alliances & offers ……..The Nifty has good support at 4320 and even a better support at 4280 level. The Nifty shall open with a gap of 45 points above 4395-97 level and the high has to be crossed the first resistance at 4415-20 level. I think that this resistance will be crossed with out much pain unless there is huge fall in the Asian stocks.
The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed.
DOUBTS REMAINED……The Indian markets moved up but left as debris of doubts while moving in such haste. The Bulls took the short-term advantage to make the retail shorts are covered in fear triggered further rally in Friday trades. The crude sliding from the important support level is a welcome sign as it would offer us to reduce the external fiscal burden due to oil imports. The India’s economy may stay for a while with out generating further fear of slow down in our growth.
The creeping uncertainties….The Nifty has to cross and trade above 4539-41 level to continue the up move to become a trend in the coming days. The Nifty has bottom support at 4449-51 level as first support and the better one at 4421-19 level. This can be achieved only when the RIL trades above 2220 level and the high shall cross the serious resistance at 2265 level. The ONGC is in better place good above 1065 level, so today it won’t considerably fall below that level.
The Wall crumbles…The Infy may manage to float above the support at 1640 level and may shuttle between 1770-1640 range till the second quarter results. In case Infy close & trades below the 1690 level and the Satyam trades below 409-06 support level could become the first signs of cracking in the IT stocks.
THE EFFORT IS TO SEE THE MARKETS WITH WHOLISTIC APPROACH BUT NOT IN ISOLATION.
Every body is talking, saying some thing or other about the markets that they are now in bear grip and things like that as of now I am doing the same thing but…
The churning in the markets is to say cheers & thumps-up to the future leaders of the next BULL Run…..
An effort to remind…. In my posting titled… The BEST chance to overcome…dt 25-08-08…
The markets are consolidating at this stage where the Nifty made some anchor at 4200-4300 level. The markets very likely to move further to 5100 level if it trades above 4500 level (with out touching 4080-4100 level) which is very crucial resistance to cross, other wise the markets likely to see one more deep correction that could take back first to 3500 level, later to 3180-3130 level, if worst case developed then to a level that was available at 2940-3040 range, came in the last week of July-06. The July, 2006 levels may not come to Nifty as it undergone a series of changes in the composition, higher capitalization stocks like DLF, UNITECH, Power Grid, now the Rpower being included by 10th Sep-08. The Indian markets are taking the earlier lead while falling and even in the rise, but the global crisis may not let it move in unidirectional up move. At the current valuations, the age old thumb rule method of identifying the stocks like P/E is still high at 18.25 as per NSE, when compared to the historic movements. The recent worry that has developed in the investors mind was due to the high valuations enjoyed few months back are not available inspite of good earnings. As a matter of fact these things were already discounted by the markets, factored in good news can never trigger up move. So those sweet memories are now sweated, cannot be demanded then the euphoria generated was to attract the scapegoats to distribute and make HARD CASH. Those deceived lots have to throw away the acquired valuable assets as useless scrap, then the markets will bounce with vengeance for that insult, until then just get in and get out.
And in my other posting ……….
The roller coaster…. The Nifty has support first support at 4449 and at 4421-16 level which is crucial and the markets shell not get any supply of shorts at this level. If Nifty could trade above 4481-3 level is a bullish sign but the high had to be crossed the minor resistance at 4505-08 level for this day.
The alliances & offers ……..The Nifty has good support at 4320 and even a better support at 4280 level. The Nifty shall open with a gap of 45 points above 4395-97 level and the high has to be crossed the first resistance at 4415-20 level. I think that this resistance will be crossed with out much pain unless there is huge fall in the Asian stocks.
The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed.
DOUBTS REMAINED……The Indian markets moved up but left as debris of doubts while moving in such haste. The Bulls took the short-term advantage to make the retail shorts are covered in fear triggered further rally in Friday trades. The crude sliding from the important support level is a welcome sign as it would offer us to reduce the external fiscal burden due to oil imports. The India’s economy may stay for a while with out generating further fear of slow down in our growth.
The creeping uncertainties….The Nifty has to cross and trade above 4539-41 level to continue the up move to become a trend in the coming days. The Nifty has bottom support at 4449-51 level as first support and the better one at 4421-19 level. This can be achieved only when the RIL trades above 2220 level and the high shall cross the serious resistance at 2265 level. The ONGC is in better place good above 1065 level, so today it won’t considerably fall below that level.
The Wall crumbles…The Infy may manage to float above the support at 1640 level and may shuttle between 1770-1640 range till the second quarter results. In case Infy close & trades below the 1690 level and the Satyam trades below 409-06 support level could become the first signs of cracking in the IT stocks.
THE EFFORT IS TO SEE THE MARKETS WITH WHOLISTIC APPROACH BUT NOT IN ISOLATION.
Monday, September 22, 2008
The RIL’s history…
The Reliance of Mukesh Ambani has created history by pumping oil as India’s first private sector deep sea crude oil exploration from D-6 block at KG basin with a rate of 5,500 barrels per day. Reliance is selling the oil from D6 to HPCL's refinery at Visakhapatnam on spot basis. Where as his younger brother’s most valued RCOM lost market capitalization and its 10th position was given to LT in the list of top most valued companies by market cap.
The markets of Asia are trading in narrow band to take a side, so is our Nifty. The SGX Nifty is trading at 4335 level with a plus of 30 odd points. The Nifty has the initial resistance at 4339-45 level and the support existing at 4148-51 level as first support and the best can be expected at 4119-16 level.
The RIL news can save the day from a steep collapse; the RIL has support at 2015 and at 2000 level, the resistance can be expected at 2125-20 level and a move beyond will confirm the initial up trend. The ICICI bank is strong so long it trades above 609-07 level. The reality sector may face selling pressure as the fears looming large due these financial crisis.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
The markets of Asia are trading in narrow band to take a side, so is our Nifty. The SGX Nifty is trading at 4335 level with a plus of 30 odd points. The Nifty has the initial resistance at 4339-45 level and the support existing at 4148-51 level as first support and the best can be expected at 4119-16 level.
The RIL news can save the day from a steep collapse; the RIL has support at 2015 and at 2000 level, the resistance can be expected at 2125-20 level and a move beyond will confirm the initial up trend. The ICICI bank is strong so long it trades above 609-07 level. The reality sector may face selling pressure as the fears looming large due these financial crisis.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
The worst or bad…..
The financial markets worst may be over but the bad news continues to flow as days pass by. The markets surprisingly closed in positive note on week on week basis. The Monday to Friday turmoil is strictly specified to US and we swing in tune as we are associated.
The Nifty though touched a low of 3800 level but did not trade but took the advantage of buying at the bottom to scale up to 4300 level. This clearly suggests that the markets have some strength given the conditions.
The US turmoil will affect the software companies by 4-6 months but opened the doors of opportunities for next 3-4 years. This advantage will be used by the big tags.
The best opportunity once existed in the retail and office spaces, the real estate markets in India will take longer time than estimated and the days ahead are boom to doom. The billionaires club may replace the names of Indians in this sector with the owners of alternative energy and commodity traders in steel, copper and aluminum.
The new wealth creators likely to emerge from the companies engaged in Natural resources exploration be it oil, gas, mining of coal, copper, iron ore and those engaged in trading of these resources. The companies engaged in infrastructure development now in pipe line construction for gas transportation and city gas distribution, the port and air port construction companies will benefit the most in India.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
The Nifty though touched a low of 3800 level but did not trade but took the advantage of buying at the bottom to scale up to 4300 level. This clearly suggests that the markets have some strength given the conditions.
The US turmoil will affect the software companies by 4-6 months but opened the doors of opportunities for next 3-4 years. This advantage will be used by the big tags.
The best opportunity once existed in the retail and office spaces, the real estate markets in India will take longer time than estimated and the days ahead are boom to doom. The billionaires club may replace the names of Indians in this sector with the owners of alternative energy and commodity traders in steel, copper and aluminum.
The new wealth creators likely to emerge from the companies engaged in Natural resources exploration be it oil, gas, mining of coal, copper, iron ore and those engaged in trading of these resources. The companies engaged in infrastructure development now in pipe line construction for gas transportation and city gas distribution, the port and air port construction companies will benefit the most in India.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
Friday, September 19, 2008
THE COMBINED EFFORTS…..
The markets recovered very sharply with the combined efforts of the leading governments to end the crisis.
The markets in India recovered very sharply with the FM statement and the positive news flow from the US efforts to bail out the current crisis.
The positive news flow is around the corner to lift the sagging spirits of the investors. Now the issues are a global phenomena and every body is curious with tight nerves.
The Asian markets are jumping in joy and relief from the nightmares. The Hang Seng, one of the worst performers is up by 1,110 points (6.3% up), the Nikkei is up by 378 points (3.3% up). The SGX Nifty is at 4270 level, nearly up above 220 points.
The ADR’s are well above 7% to 15%. The Indian ADRs gained more value as HDFC bank more than 11%, ICIC Bank 11%, MTNL above 15% and the tech pack Satyam and Infy around 2% but Wipro up by 7%.
The Nifty will be in the pull back support and may gain strength so long it trades above 4080 level and will gain momentum to up ward journey if it could trade above 4365 level.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
The markets in India recovered very sharply with the FM statement and the positive news flow from the US efforts to bail out the current crisis.
The positive news flow is around the corner to lift the sagging spirits of the investors. Now the issues are a global phenomena and every body is curious with tight nerves.
The Asian markets are jumping in joy and relief from the nightmares. The Hang Seng, one of the worst performers is up by 1,110 points (6.3% up), the Nikkei is up by 378 points (3.3% up). The SGX Nifty is at 4270 level, nearly up above 220 points.
The ADR’s are well above 7% to 15%. The Indian ADRs gained more value as HDFC bank more than 11%, ICIC Bank 11%, MTNL above 15% and the tech pack Satyam and Infy around 2% but Wipro up by 7%.
The Nifty will be in the pull back support and may gain strength so long it trades above 4080 level and will gain momentum to up ward journey if it could trade above 4365 level.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
The sole strength “not enough”…..
The markets struggling to keep its head above the floods of crying (not tears) waters of US financial crises. Though our houses were not set to blaze but while we are also staying in the same colony of global equalities, it is a prudent measure to sprinkle some waters to calm down the impetus, so the markets are down and adjusting to shred out the husk from the grain.
The US markets always enjoys the surprises of publishing wrong financial statements or false statements, be it Enron, Baer Streans, Fennie Mae, Freddie Mac or the recent collapses of Lehman, Merrill Lynch and AIG, all went through sound until a day before the death warrant announced by their CEOs. Now no news is good news than the bad news of the crumbling fellow neighbor. As of now, the markets crashed due to simply mismanagement by the world renowned companies and the regulators at the helm. There is no hope for next 10-15 days, till the fallout debris is cleared and the new beginning begins.
The ADAG announces that RNRL is the sole beneficiary of the future projects in Cement, Steel and transportation with a whooping 65000 cr investment plans. Yesterday announced the Relcap will become the leader in insurance, asset management with one lakh crore AUM and other banking services. A day before yesterday announced that the RelInfra will bid the Mumbai metrotrans, fly over and other infra businesses. The Rpower will bid for private Nuclear power generation apart from the earlier planned Rs 60,000 cr power business.
Our planners are expecting huge investments in infra structure, SEZs to a tune of 16 lakh crore for next 4-5 years. The investment potential and rate of return is positive in India but the global financial chaos may force to draw different rules for the future investments that may take a longer period than expected.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
The efforts to make-up….
The markets in India are undoubtedly out-performing the rest, especially in the emerging markets. The US financial sector turmoil making the global equities to accept the carry forward effect falls in tune with that effect. The tails spin movement of the equities eroding the trader’s net worth by triggering the stop losses. The likely wood of the bail out of Merrill Lynch in US has eaten away the BOA capitalization and no takers for Lehman Brothers are a serious concern to the global markets.
If we start recollecting the series of happing right from the first signs of Sub-prime issue surfaced in July-aug-07, the investment Gurus like Buffet has warned the serious consequences of the Sub-prime as it is was compared with a sleeping volcano.
Back to home the out look for the BPO & software services has become bleak to dark. The opportunity may arise only after April-June-09. The Investment in reality sector will be badly affected as the fund inflow will be drastically reduced.
The only hope that can survive our markets is the self sufficient infra development investments from the Govt and a little bit support from the ADB loan and World Bank. The promising sectors for at these crises are Power including the Nuclear power, Pharma & CRAMS and the ever green FMCG. The falling rupee can save our export oriented cotton, ready-mades and the tea sector.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
If we start recollecting the series of happing right from the first signs of Sub-prime issue surfaced in July-aug-07, the investment Gurus like Buffet has warned the serious consequences of the Sub-prime as it is was compared with a sleeping volcano.
Back to home the out look for the BPO & software services has become bleak to dark. The opportunity may arise only after April-June-09. The Investment in reality sector will be badly affected as the fund inflow will be drastically reduced.
The only hope that can survive our markets is the self sufficient infra development investments from the Govt and a little bit support from the ADB loan and World Bank. The promising sectors for at these crises are Power including the Nuclear power, Pharma & CRAMS and the ever green FMCG. The falling rupee can save our export oriented cotton, ready-mades and the tea sector.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
Just to remind u…
The effort is to make you understand the in built positions that accumulates over a peroid of time for a big move on a later day.......
In my previous postings I discussed as......
The roller coaster…. The Nifty has support first support at 4449 and at 4421-16 level which is crucial and the markets shell not get any supply of shorts at this level. If Nifty could trade above 4481-3 level is a bullish sign but the high had to be crossed the minor resistance at 4505-08 level for this day.
The alliances & offers ……..The Nifty has good support at 4320 and even a better support at 4280 level. The Nifty shall open with a gap of 45 points above 4395-97 level and the high has to be crossed the first resistance at 4415-20 level. I think that this resistance will be crossed with out much pain unless there is huge fall in the Asian stocks.
The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed.
DOUBTS REMAINED……The Indian markets moved up but left as debris of doubts while moving in such haste. The Bulls took the short-term advantage to make the retail shorts are covered in fear triggered further rally in Friday trades. The crude sliding from the important support level is a welcome sign as it would offer us to reduce the external fiscal burden due to oil imports. The India’s economy may stay for a while with out generating further fear of slow down in our growth.
The creeping uncertainties….The Nifty has to cross and trade above 4539-41 level to continue the up move to become a trend in the coming days. The Nifty has bottom support at 4449-51 level as first support and the better one at 4421-19 level. This can be achieved only when the RIL trades above 2220 level and the high shall cross the serious resistance at 2265 level. The ONGC is in better place good above 1065 level, so today it won’t considerably fall below that level.
The Wall crumbles…The Infy may manage to float above the support at 1640 level and may shuttle between 1770-1640 range till the second quarter results. In case Infy close & trades below the 1690 level and the Satyam trades below 409-06 support level could become the first signs of cracking in the IT stocks.
The consolidation move………The regular readers will observe the RIL strong above 2220 level and weak below 2193 level which was nose dived during the early trade to 2146 level.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
In my previous postings I discussed as......
The roller coaster…. The Nifty has support first support at 4449 and at 4421-16 level which is crucial and the markets shell not get any supply of shorts at this level. If Nifty could trade above 4481-3 level is a bullish sign but the high had to be crossed the minor resistance at 4505-08 level for this day.
The alliances & offers ……..The Nifty has good support at 4320 and even a better support at 4280 level. The Nifty shall open with a gap of 45 points above 4395-97 level and the high has to be crossed the first resistance at 4415-20 level. I think that this resistance will be crossed with out much pain unless there is huge fall in the Asian stocks.
The real challenge for Nifty is to trade above 4450-55 level to threaten the bears to cover their shorts. I think the retail investors will cover at 4450 level but the HNIs and deep pockets may wait and watch the 4523-29 level is decisively crossed.
DOUBTS REMAINED……The Indian markets moved up but left as debris of doubts while moving in such haste. The Bulls took the short-term advantage to make the retail shorts are covered in fear triggered further rally in Friday trades. The crude sliding from the important support level is a welcome sign as it would offer us to reduce the external fiscal burden due to oil imports. The India’s economy may stay for a while with out generating further fear of slow down in our growth.
The creeping uncertainties….The Nifty has to cross and trade above 4539-41 level to continue the up move to become a trend in the coming days. The Nifty has bottom support at 4449-51 level as first support and the better one at 4421-19 level. This can be achieved only when the RIL trades above 2220 level and the high shall cross the serious resistance at 2265 level. The ONGC is in better place good above 1065 level, so today it won’t considerably fall below that level.
The Wall crumbles…The Infy may manage to float above the support at 1640 level and may shuttle between 1770-1640 range till the second quarter results. In case Infy close & trades below the 1690 level and the Satyam trades below 409-06 support level could become the first signs of cracking in the IT stocks.
The consolidation move………The regular readers will observe the RIL strong above 2220 level and weak below 2193 level which was nose dived during the early trade to 2146 level.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
The inflation down…
The inflation was down to 12.10% from 12.34%, extended the decline curve to a consecutive third week but our markets are also down in-spite of the slowing down of inflation and the falling crude. The markets are worried over the future growth prospects rather than the present favourable news.
A survey showed that the major companies in US cut their IT budgets by 40%, the firms put on hold increasing. The Reuters survey with eminent economists revealed a fact the developed nations are now grapping with credit crunch and a year of recession for sure.
The DOT, Department of Telecom, plans to complete the auction by 30 Sep-08, has changed the guidelines to participate in 3G auction to those who have prior experience in 3G can bid and have to pay the pan India license fee. The Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) services got new frequency band of 2.3 GHz in addition to the 2.5 GHz band.
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: as posted in the morning the Nifty made a high at 4399.30 and a low at 4272.75…( The Nifty is weak below 4391-93 level and to see the upward movement then it has to trade above 4480 level. So at present we are struggling to protect our supports at the bottom level. As such the bottoms supports are below 4350 level are close to one another. The 4339-41, 4321-19 and the 4285-89 will come at this critical time but the problem is the pressure on the higher levels).
A survey showed that the major companies in US cut their IT budgets by 40%, the firms put on hold increasing. The Reuters survey with eminent economists revealed a fact the developed nations are now grapping with credit crunch and a year of recession for sure.
The DOT, Department of Telecom, plans to complete the auction by 30 Sep-08, has changed the guidelines to participate in 3G auction to those who have prior experience in 3G can bid and have to pay the pan India license fee. The Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) services got new frequency band of 2.3 GHz in addition to the 2.5 GHz band.
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: as posted in the morning the Nifty made a high at 4399.30 and a low at 4272.75…( The Nifty is weak below 4391-93 level and to see the upward movement then it has to trade above 4480 level. So at present we are struggling to protect our supports at the bottom level. As such the bottoms supports are below 4350 level are close to one another. The 4339-41, 4321-19 and the 4285-89 will come at this critical time but the problem is the pressure on the higher levels).
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