WISH YOU A HAPPY & CHEERFULL “CHRISTMAS”.
MAY THIS CHRISTMAS BRING WEALTH, HEALTH AND PEACE TO ONE & ALL.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
The security concerns…
Both the countries are equipped with nuclear technology heading for a collision can draw catastrophic results. The efforts of India are yielding results as the international pressures are mounting on Pak Govt. and local political uncertainties are placing that country in a fix.
The strength of markets can be gain when the dark clouds of war ceases. The Nifty is facing resistance at 3100 level but 3030-3026 level holds good for yesterday may be challenged to day because the RIL fell below 1315 support level. The HDFC and HDFC bank are driving south wards. The markets may hold in tight band till the expiry.
The Nifty is good above 3076-79 level which will become a resistance and the support for this day could be at 2961-63 level. The SBI is holding above 1265 is good, DLF is good above 296 and ONGC above 694. In case these trade below their support level and RIL below 1296 level is a clear sign of Bear grip over the markets. The HDFC is weak below 1532 and minor support at 1410-12 level. The HDFC Bank is weak below 1036 level and support at 930-32 level.
The strength of markets can be gain when the dark clouds of war ceases. The Nifty is facing resistance at 3100 level but 3030-3026 level holds good for yesterday may be challenged to day because the RIL fell below 1315 support level. The HDFC and HDFC bank are driving south wards. The markets may hold in tight band till the expiry.
The Nifty is good above 3076-79 level which will become a resistance and the support for this day could be at 2961-63 level. The SBI is holding above 1265 is good, DLF is good above 296 and ONGC above 694. In case these trade below their support level and RIL below 1296 level is a clear sign of Bear grip over the markets. The HDFC is weak below 1532 and minor support at 1410-12 level. The HDFC Bank is weak below 1036 level and support at 930-32 level.
Monday, December 22, 2008
The Air strike ?…
The Air strike by India has become immense importance to curb the terrorist activities of POK based organizations. The wait and watch approach strengthens the extremists. The peace loving nature shall bring friends but this attitude dilutes with the foes, take advantage of the good feeling to weakness. The markets like the move that lights our spirits however strong we argue on the impairments of war to humanity.
The Nifty is loosing momentum as the heavy weights like RIL, ICICI, ONGC and other counters of telecos. The recent momentum counters are Relcap, Rel infra, HUL and DLF hold the value and not good to be trapped by selling.
At this point the markets have good support at 2961-63 level. So the markets are strong for the Bulls and be with them for short period incase RIL cross the resistance at 1415-18 level or shorts built if it trades below 1315-18.
The Nifty is loosing momentum as the heavy weights like RIL, ICICI, ONGC and other counters of telecos. The recent momentum counters are Relcap, Rel infra, HUL and DLF hold the value and not good to be trapped by selling.
At this point the markets have good support at 2961-63 level. So the markets are strong for the Bulls and be with them for short period incase RIL cross the resistance at 1415-18 level or shorts built if it trades below 1315-18.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
The Bears gain strength...
As posted earlier the markets reached a reasonable level from where the Bears take advantage to short the market. The final leg of 100-150 points of Nifty is an advantage to off load the stock to retail investor as the markets are ready to face the slow down numbers more wildly than before. The Inflation is no longer an issue but reviving the staggered investment plans and fear to face the future in the corporate minds is the real challenge. The markets will see the dwindling profit margins and “Put On Hold”- expansion plans, then the markets see….
The fight for survival…..3*12
The day displayed a strong fight for survival of the market at 2650 level.
As posted earlier the high light of the day is the smart recovery of SBI to
close above 1085. The RIL is struggling to gain strength to move up but it displayed a decent fight against the Bears. The ONGC and Bharti were subdued despite good effort by the Banking lot to move up. The star of the day is Tata Steel posted 10% rise with huge volume and the DLF made equal volume with good show to cross the 191-93 resistance.The LIC Housing along and SUN gave above 20% rise in the non index shares is a clear sign of shuffling and choosing the future out performers. The techs lost the sheen due to foreign brokerage house CLSA report dented the growth in share rise, Infosys chopped
down by 4.3% Wipro TCS and Satyam were no exception.The teleco lost value by 3-5% but the autos recovered on short covering. The Banking sector posted decent gains on the hopes of fall in inflation that can force the Central bank to take an early decision on rate cuts. The Nifty is at cross roads and waiting for break out. In case the RIL fails to cross the 1093 level and trades below 1040-35 then the markets will easily touch the 2000-2100 level with out much resistance from Bulls.
The SBI gained but the RIL, ONGC and Bharti are in negative territory with new members from tech sector. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to
trap the Bears to cover their positions. In case BHEL and LT recovers then there was some glimmer of hope in the capital goods and Infrastructure sector that build due to the NHAI announcements.Recovery but weak…..2*12
The markets took the support once it touched the low at 2571
level and it managed to claw back to close at 2657 level a much needed support to Nifty above 2630 level and the weakness in RIL and ONGC is a great concern at this point in time.The Australia cut the lending rates by 100 bps and our top brass discussing for the timing. The stimulus package announced to has some
bearing on Infrastructure companies but the release of funds and the cost that matters a lot at this hour. The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow infavour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels.In case the resistance at 2750 level crossed with ease, close above 2735-42 will add value to Bulls efforts. The bears will cover the positions as the positive news unfolds as progress progresses and the Nifty may touch again 3280-3300 level with short covering.
The only threatening concern unfolding is the verbal war with neighbours on Mumbai blasts can easily change the direction in case the situation provoked for a war on the terrorist camps.
The RIL has to cross the 1120 level, SBI has to cross the 1085 level and ONGC has to trade above 705level to see the Nifty to scale for new territory above 2860 level.
Friday, December 19, 2008
A classic formation….
The Nifty has made a classic formation in the last 7 trading sessions from 10th to 18th Dec. The 10th, 11th and 12th highs were as 2940, 2945 and 2937. The lows of 16th, 17th and 18th were 2963, 2943 and 2922. I noticed the averages worked out at 2940-42 level which is quite supportive above 2935 level I wrote in my previous posts.
It is evident that the markets likely to cross 3285 level so long it trades above 2930 level. The bull move cannot be negated until Nifty closes below 2860. The same formation is formed with the front line heavy weights.
It is evident that the markets likely to cross 3285 level so long it trades above 2930 level. The bull move cannot be negated until Nifty closes below 2860. The same formation is formed with the front line heavy weights.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
The consolidation…
As suggested yesterday the market took a knock in the last one hour breaking the immediate support at 3010 level to touch 2940 level due to selling in the heavy weights. The markets are now in consolidation mode. The charts suggest that the support may emerge when the Nifty touches 2750 level. Today the support is expected at 286163 level and the resistance at 2993 and at 3011-13 level.
The Reliance is the early morning south runner but could hold the level at 1350 through out the day with 10-15 rupees swing. The higher level above 1390 could be a daunting task for now as the crude is in free fall. The ONGC will also see some knock today.
The HUL rally from 236 level to 256 level is heartening to bulls as the sole warrior survived in this Bears onslaught. Now the ICICI bank may loose some gains made yesterday, become weak below 432-31 level due to the selling pressure in the index counters. The earlier posts suggested good above 429 level holds good once again when it takes a U turn from the support levels at 406 and 393 level. Then the counter may cross the 490 level and could touch 520-25 level without much resistance. The NTPC is at the distribution mode at the higher level may see a correction of 20% from 166 level when it closes below that level.
The story of techs to our blog readers is quite evident and the worst victim of the frustration is Satyam. The bounce from 150 level to 203-05 is good to exit as it has tarnished it good image. The long-term selling is expected unless the company and the top investor come with rescue measures by announcing some important acquisitions above 500 million dollars to keep the earnings stream in tact.
The Reliance is the early morning south runner but could hold the level at 1350 through out the day with 10-15 rupees swing. The higher level above 1390 could be a daunting task for now as the crude is in free fall. The ONGC will also see some knock today.
The HUL rally from 236 level to 256 level is heartening to bulls as the sole warrior survived in this Bears onslaught. Now the ICICI bank may loose some gains made yesterday, become weak below 432-31 level due to the selling pressure in the index counters. The earlier posts suggested good above 429 level holds good once again when it takes a U turn from the support levels at 406 and 393 level. Then the counter may cross the 490 level and could touch 520-25 level without much resistance. The NTPC is at the distribution mode at the higher level may see a correction of 20% from 166 level when it closes below that level.
The story of techs to our blog readers is quite evident and the worst victim of the frustration is Satyam. The bounce from 150 level to 203-05 is good to exit as it has tarnished it good image. The long-term selling is expected unless the company and the top investor come with rescue measures by announcing some important acquisitions above 500 million dollars to keep the earnings stream in tact.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
The Maddoff..Losses...
The troubled assets due Maddoff deal could spill cascading effect as the days pass by. The market is surging to absorb the good news coupled with short covering. The markets are trading above the immediate support level at 2935 well above that level close despite of the momentum in the upwards has reduced considerably.
The positive side of the up move is that the RIL touched the 1395 level well above the 1356 resistance level. The rebound of the ONGC above 694 level cross the resistance above 705 is a favourable sign. The slow down sectors paid much lower advance taxes reflects the slowing growth and business expansion may pull down the indices by 200 points to 2700-2800 level.The advancement of Bharti, NTPC, ITC and HUL will yield to selling pressure apart from the RPL and RIL.
The positive side of the up move is that the RIL touched the 1395 level well above the 1356 resistance level. The rebound of the ONGC above 694 level cross the resistance above 705 is a favourable sign. The slow down sectors paid much lower advance taxes reflects the slowing growth and business expansion may pull down the indices by 200 points to 2700-2800 level.The advancement of Bharti, NTPC, ITC and HUL will yield to selling pressure apart from the RPL and RIL.
Valuable hold above….
As expected the markets are above the important support levels despite the global slump. The Nifty crossed the major resistance of the first upward move and it could hold above that level as suggested in my earlier postings.
The Nifty has support at 2750 and for today it has support at 2861-63 level. The volatility is visible in stocks but the Nifty reduced to a band.
The move came from the weakest is the cause of worry- the Reliance and the RPL taking baton from the Reality pack that emerged star performer due to the package support and interest rate cuts. The RIL is good so long it trades above 1281-76 level both for the stock and for the Nifty. The Nifty may face resistance at 2991-96 level.
The DLF may yield to selling pressure below 278 level, the RELinfra weak below 659-61 level, Relcap is weak below 540 for this day. The banking giant SBI weak below 1220 level and the up move can be expected after it touches 1134 and holds above 1158-61 level. The ICICI bank upper side move resumes once it touches 371-73 level and trades above 406-8.
The Nifty has support at 2750 and for today it has support at 2861-63 level. The volatility is visible in stocks but the Nifty reduced to a band.
The move came from the weakest is the cause of worry- the Reliance and the RPL taking baton from the Reality pack that emerged star performer due to the package support and interest rate cuts. The RIL is good so long it trades above 1281-76 level both for the stock and for the Nifty. The Nifty may face resistance at 2991-96 level.
The DLF may yield to selling pressure below 278 level, the RELinfra weak below 659-61 level, Relcap is weak below 540 for this day. The banking giant SBI weak below 1220 level and the up move can be expected after it touches 1134 and holds above 1158-61 level. The ICICI bank upper side move resumes once it touches 371-73 level and trades above 406-8.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
The rally rallied…….
The markets rallied quite sharply than anticipated and it left no big name lying dormant. The markets took the bad news to get the Bears caught in the wrong foot rallied nearly 250 points from a closing of 2657 to 2928 with in 3 days is quite dramatic but it is a fact of life in the stock market.
The markets poised to close near to positive territory just because of RIL and RPL vibrant move in the late hour forced the rest to cover their loses be it ICICI, Rel Infra, LT, DLF, SBI or the other losers. The telecoms like Bharti and RCOM are moving in positive territory for the last 3-4 days. The Infras especially the housing sector now is betting on affordable houses.
The big news is that the Govt. withdrew the case against RIL and suggesting for a negotiator to settle the issue between the brothers over the gas supply and pricing. This has prompted an up move of 25 % in RNRL and recovery to cross the 1295 hurdle in RIL price.
The markets may find a fresh selling pressure due to the steep rise and the die-hard Bears any way go for an average selling, quite right at this point in time to get out from huge losses built from 2550.
The markets poised to close near to positive territory just because of RIL and RPL vibrant move in the late hour forced the rest to cover their loses be it ICICI, Rel Infra, LT, DLF, SBI or the other losers. The telecoms like Bharti and RCOM are moving in positive territory for the last 3-4 days. The Infras especially the housing sector now is betting on affordable houses.
The big news is that the Govt. withdrew the case against RIL and suggesting for a negotiator to settle the issue between the brothers over the gas supply and pricing. This has prompted an up move of 25 % in RNRL and recovery to cross the 1295 hurdle in RIL price.
The markets may find a fresh selling pressure due to the steep rise and the die-hard Bears any way go for an average selling, quite right at this point in time to get out from huge losses built from 2550.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
The US won’t….
The big brother US won’t give us the opportunity to strike the base camps of the terrorist groups in Pakistan. The close associate of US, Pakistan cannot dare to challenge its big brother’s suggestions and its ability to face our forces also a big question mark. The UPA political mileage plans are confined to preparations only to put pressure on the neighbour.
The markets took the advantage of adverse news to corner the Bears to buy at higher prices. The negative news of possible war, the negative rating of DLF and the other existing uncertainties of economic growth were put into a bundle to corner the Bears. The Nifty staged a decent recovery to cross the resistance at 2935 amidst of bad news flow.
The Nifty took the Bulls support on Friday and they carried the journey by inviting the Bears to make shorts in DLF, UNITECH, HDIL, SUZLON and now they are opened to cover at higher prices. The situation will turn sour incase Nifty drifts below 2760 level for the mounting political tensions or any other reason then it will be disaster like situation on the bourses.
Now the Nifty has to trade above 2835-29 level. The RIL has to trade above 1161-55 level. The laggards now will perform like Relcap which will become strong above 475, ONGC above 685, PunjLlyod above 158-59, Infy above 1220 and Satyam above 236-38 level.
The fall can be expected in HUL below 239, ITC below 168-69 and NTPC below 156-55 if they close below these support levels.
The markets took the advantage of adverse news to corner the Bears to buy at higher prices. The negative news of possible war, the negative rating of DLF and the other existing uncertainties of economic growth were put into a bundle to corner the Bears. The Nifty staged a decent recovery to cross the resistance at 2935 amidst of bad news flow.
The Nifty took the Bulls support on Friday and they carried the journey by inviting the Bears to make shorts in DLF, UNITECH, HDIL, SUZLON and now they are opened to cover at higher prices. The situation will turn sour incase Nifty drifts below 2760 level for the mounting political tensions or any other reason then it will be disaster like situation on the bourses.
Now the Nifty has to trade above 2835-29 level. The RIL has to trade above 1161-55 level. The laggards now will perform like Relcap which will become strong above 475, ONGC above 685, PunjLlyod above 158-59, Infy above 1220 and Satyam above 236-38 level.
The fall can be expected in HUL below 239, ITC below 168-69 and NTPC below 156-55 if they close below these support levels.
The up move …..
The markets missed the yesterday rally in the global markets due to holiday but it is likely that it will adjust by rise by 2-3%.
The majority participants are skeptical about the future prospects due to the sinking economies across the globe and the fearing to bet about the underling growth prospects. At this critical juncture India may not draw much share from the FII investment, to add the terrorist attacks spoiled the early recovery from the lows.
The solid band of 2810-2503-2784 from 14th Nov-08 till date, the markets went no where on points basis but has crated much hope and despair in the minds of Bulls and Bears, the investors are still not conclusive to make a final call. The only positive sign that can be drawn from the above 16 trading sessions is that the markets are in recovery path provided they cross the 2935 resistance.
The markets may open positive and may continue to rise in case the heavy weights float above their support levels as mentioned yesterday. The Nifty has immediate support above 2760 level and can continue to hold the buying till it trades below 2720-2716 level. In case of slide the RIL shall not trade below 1076-73 level and the SBI shall not trade below 1111-06 level. In case of violation of above said conditions then the markets are likely to see selling pressure and Bulls unwinding. The support to reality and infra may hold for some more time.
At 9.40 pm last night I prepared but the posting was not PUBLISHED, still I surprise how it has happened but for record sake I publish now.
The majority participants are skeptical about the future prospects due to the sinking economies across the globe and the fearing to bet about the underling growth prospects. At this critical juncture India may not draw much share from the FII investment, to add the terrorist attacks spoiled the early recovery from the lows.
The solid band of 2810-2503-2784 from 14th Nov-08 till date, the markets went no where on points basis but has crated much hope and despair in the minds of Bulls and Bears, the investors are still not conclusive to make a final call. The only positive sign that can be drawn from the above 16 trading sessions is that the markets are in recovery path provided they cross the 2935 resistance.
The markets may open positive and may continue to rise in case the heavy weights float above their support levels as mentioned yesterday. The Nifty has immediate support above 2760 level and can continue to hold the buying till it trades below 2720-2716 level. In case of slide the RIL shall not trade below 1076-73 level and the SBI shall not trade below 1111-06 level. In case of violation of above said conditions then the markets are likely to see selling pressure and Bulls unwinding. The support to reality and infra may hold for some more time.
At 9.40 pm last night I prepared but the posting was not PUBLISHED, still I surprise how it has happened but for record sake I publish now.
Monday, December 08, 2008
The Global pull but…….
The markets displayed a positive move to cross the resistance but failed to close above 2811-16 level.The Asian markets closed with gain around 5-6% but the Indian markets undergone profit booking.
The decent gains in NTPC, HUL is positive and sell of in ITC is a challenge. The disappointing stock in the banking sector is HDFC bank. I mentioned in my previous post about it’s under performance.
The late hour sell off from 2860 to 2780 level is a bad signal but the good sign is the leaders closed above their support levels, RIL above 1112 level and SBI above 1150 and Bhati made a decent come back to close above 700 level.
The decent gains in NTPC, HUL is positive and sell of in ITC is a challenge. The disappointing stock in the banking sector is HDFC bank. I mentioned in my previous post about it’s under performance.
The late hour sell off from 2860 to 2780 level is a bad signal but the good sign is the leaders closed above their support levels, RIL above 1112 level and SBI above 1150 and Bhati made a decent come back to close above 700 level.
Sunday, December 07, 2008
NOW Fiscal measures………
The Govt. of India has come out with a mini-budget like slew of measure to kick start the economy and the ailing sectors. The auto and the reality sectors are the fore runners of deceleration, put halt to southward journey. The auto sector will enjoy the CENVAT facility, lowered by 4%. The Maruti wanted to pass the full benefit to its coustomers but the others who already announced rate cuts in advance with this anticipation may announce their plans later, adjusting to market forces.
The Govt. planning to spend nearly 20,000 crores of rupees to stimulate the growth above 7%, focusing on infrastructure and core sector spending. To improve the exports, especially the cotton and fabric sector, textiles will get 2% reduction in interest upto Mar-09. The textile sector will get 1400 crores for Technology Upgradation Fund. A 350 crore export intensive scheme and a back up of 350 crores to ECGC (Export Credit Guarantee Corporation) for proving guarantee to exporters. The micro and small industry will get a collateral free lending support upto 1 cr from earlier 50 lakhs.
A special package on loans will be announced by the banks to encourage housing. The large amount of unmet demand for low cost housing will get a boost with the package which will have two categories, one below 50 lakhs and the other one between 5-20 lakhs category. The RBI plans to refinance 4000 cores to National Housing bank (NHB) to spur the growth in low cost housing to the poor. These measures will absorb the expanded capacity of cement and the demand for longs-steel may increase.
The IIFCL- India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd will raise 10,000 crores via bonds to finance the roads and other Infrastructure projects through Public- Private Partnership (PPP). The plans come through fast in implementation, 60 highway projects likely to get clearance.
The reality and the Infrastructure stocks are likely to get the benefit. The JP associates is good above 67 and likely to reach the 90 range, will become weak below 60-62 range. The GMR likely to cross the 71-73 resistance but the airports and the low traffic will be a drag for time being. The High way construction companies like Nagarjuna constructions, Mytas, IVRCL, C& C constructions, KNR constructions and low cost housing sector focused Omaxe and Orbit Corp. get the investor support. This euphoria will not live long as the uncertainties are still intact. The best is to focus on JP which is having cement and infra.
The Nifty is good above 2750 level and the bottom support is at 2662-63 level. In case the markets fall due to global pressure but will bounce back, gain momentum above 2750 to touch 3039-45 level. So the temporary slag shall be used for buying instead of going for short. Incase Nifty closes below 2520 level then sell the longs to buy again at lower levels
The markets become weak when the Rel Infra trades below and closes below 491-93 level. The Banking sector will lose the ground as a whole when SBI trades below 1056-53 level and Axis bank trades below 415-16. The ICICI bank trades and closes below 322-21level.
The laggards of the market at this point in time are ONGC and Reliance. The NTPC, ITC and HUL are becoming weak. The techs are losing ground but has little was left to gain. The earlier levels are valid to these stocks.
The Govt. planning to spend nearly 20,000 crores of rupees to stimulate the growth above 7%, focusing on infrastructure and core sector spending. To improve the exports, especially the cotton and fabric sector, textiles will get 2% reduction in interest upto Mar-09. The textile sector will get 1400 crores for Technology Upgradation Fund. A 350 crore export intensive scheme and a back up of 350 crores to ECGC (Export Credit Guarantee Corporation) for proving guarantee to exporters. The micro and small industry will get a collateral free lending support upto 1 cr from earlier 50 lakhs.
A special package on loans will be announced by the banks to encourage housing. The large amount of unmet demand for low cost housing will get a boost with the package which will have two categories, one below 50 lakhs and the other one between 5-20 lakhs category. The RBI plans to refinance 4000 cores to National Housing bank (NHB) to spur the growth in low cost housing to the poor. These measures will absorb the expanded capacity of cement and the demand for longs-steel may increase.
The IIFCL- India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd will raise 10,000 crores via bonds to finance the roads and other Infrastructure projects through Public- Private Partnership (PPP). The plans come through fast in implementation, 60 highway projects likely to get clearance.
The reality and the Infrastructure stocks are likely to get the benefit. The JP associates is good above 67 and likely to reach the 90 range, will become weak below 60-62 range. The GMR likely to cross the 71-73 resistance but the airports and the low traffic will be a drag for time being. The High way construction companies like Nagarjuna constructions, Mytas, IVRCL, C& C constructions, KNR constructions and low cost housing sector focused Omaxe and Orbit Corp. get the investor support. This euphoria will not live long as the uncertainties are still intact. The best is to focus on JP which is having cement and infra.
The Nifty is good above 2750 level and the bottom support is at 2662-63 level. In case the markets fall due to global pressure but will bounce back, gain momentum above 2750 to touch 3039-45 level. So the temporary slag shall be used for buying instead of going for short. Incase Nifty closes below 2520 level then sell the longs to buy again at lower levels
The markets become weak when the Rel Infra trades below and closes below 491-93 level. The Banking sector will lose the ground as a whole when SBI trades below 1056-53 level and Axis bank trades below 415-16. The ICICI bank trades and closes below 322-21level.
The laggards of the market at this point in time are ONGC and Reliance. The NTPC, ITC and HUL are becoming weak. The techs are losing ground but has little was left to gain. The earlier levels are valid to these stocks.
The Hope Vs Reality…
The markets were anxious to accept the stimulus package both from the Govt. and from the RBI for quite some time. The final count down of parliament elections begins once the count done completes for the state assembly results.
The global slow down relaxed the emerging markets oil burden and provided time to consolidate the growth progresses. The economic foundation of country like India is strong but needs external propeller to generate growth stimulus, until then we have to consolidate on internal resource and consumption.
The markets will consolidate until such time with a band of 20%+. The regular reader will notice the same was expressed log back and it continued till date. The sell-off at this point in time can happen on individual stock but not on the Index as a whole. The reverse is true for the rise.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom building process at 2600-2750 level for the last three weeks can go up from here but not as a rally. The challenge at this point is that the Nifty has to trade above 2750 and the high shall pierce the resistance at 2835-40 range. The Bulls got some relief signal to accept more risk to invest. This opportunity shall reflect tomorrow in the stock prices.
The SBI has strong resistance at 1220-40 level and it shall try to close above 1230 level to give confidence. The ICICI bank ADR shown nearly 10% rise on Friday night, a day in advance shall close above 371-73 level. The recent laggard of banking giant HDFC Bank has to cross the resistance at 940 level and close above 921-23 level will ensure that the markets accepted the stimulus package announced.
The global slow down relaxed the emerging markets oil burden and provided time to consolidate the growth progresses. The economic foundation of country like India is strong but needs external propeller to generate growth stimulus, until then we have to consolidate on internal resource and consumption.
The markets will consolidate until such time with a band of 20%+. The regular reader will notice the same was expressed log back and it continued till date. The sell-off at this point in time can happen on individual stock but not on the Index as a whole. The reverse is true for the rise.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom building process at 2600-2750 level for the last three weeks can go up from here but not as a rally. The challenge at this point is that the Nifty has to trade above 2750 and the high shall pierce the resistance at 2835-40 range. The Bulls got some relief signal to accept more risk to invest. This opportunity shall reflect tomorrow in the stock prices.
The SBI has strong resistance at 1220-40 level and it shall try to close above 1230 level to give confidence. The ICICI bank ADR shown nearly 10% rise on Friday night, a day in advance shall close above 371-73 level. The recent laggard of banking giant HDFC Bank has to cross the resistance at 940 level and close above 921-23 level will ensure that the markets accepted the stimulus package announced.
Saturday, December 06, 2008
The RBI announces…
The RBI announced a rate cut both in repo rate and reverse repo rate cut by 100bps to make loans cheaper to stimulate growth. The industry is expecting a CRR cut which did not materialized or postponed for around of press conference.
The central Govt. announced a feeble rate cut on diesel can not make a substantial impact on the transport sector but beneficial self owned generator operators especially in cement sector and for some emergency power generators. Like wise the RBI measures won’t affect the market at large as the banks has to borrow from RBI to lend and they will be under scanner. So the liberty of lending is being fixed but the paper statements of availability of adequate liquidity cannot trigger the economic activity. The reasons are simple as the consumption from exports contacted will become excess supply at home and the hype of recession across the world will make the buyer in India to think twice before “commits”.
The growth in reality is there but postponed for various reasons can get some bottom support temporarily at least at the stock prices. The encouragement to housing below 20 lakh category is a good sign.
I personally think that the stock markets already factored the 100 bps cut in repo and reverse repo rates can little be over exuberated but the housing and reality may rise. No big surprise, so just follow the global trend for time being.
The central Govt. announced a feeble rate cut on diesel can not make a substantial impact on the transport sector but beneficial self owned generator operators especially in cement sector and for some emergency power generators. Like wise the RBI measures won’t affect the market at large as the banks has to borrow from RBI to lend and they will be under scanner. So the liberty of lending is being fixed but the paper statements of availability of adequate liquidity cannot trigger the economic activity. The reasons are simple as the consumption from exports contacted will become excess supply at home and the hype of recession across the world will make the buyer in India to think twice before “commits”.
The growth in reality is there but postponed for various reasons can get some bottom support temporarily at least at the stock prices. The encouragement to housing below 20 lakh category is a good sign.
I personally think that the stock markets already factored the 100 bps cut in repo and reverse repo rates can little be over exuberated but the housing and reality may rise. No big surprise, so just follow the global trend for time being.
The haunt of global…..
The markets are interested in participate the trends of the global economy despite of its decoupling nature once in a week to maintain the bottom above 2600 level. The Nifty low made at 2701.35, got well above the strong support at 2673-76 level but it got resistance at 2820, failed to cross the initial resistance at2832-36 level. The previous levels were not breached but the ONGC and ICICI bank are going to play a decisive role to give direction to Nifty.
The continued action in the media stocks rocking the markets as the election results followed big fight for parliament election campaign and the no less viewer eye balls for the terrorist news coverage improved market capitalization to many listed companies by more than 30%.
The techs will recover once the doom period of out-sourcing stand of Obama is clear in regulations & acts until then the range bound will keep shifting day after day.
The skeptics of reality sector got some decent price rise of more than 20% put their wishes in action placed a cap on the up move but the Bulls have hopes on Govt’s stimulus package. The petro rate cut will further ease on the inflation but the transport costs neither decrease due to this cut nor increase the volume.
The RBI package can add considerable impact on the direction of the Nifty, if it favours the Bulls, then the Nifty will cross the 3100 level with out any resistance.
The continued action in the media stocks rocking the markets as the election results followed big fight for parliament election campaign and the no less viewer eye balls for the terrorist news coverage improved market capitalization to many listed companies by more than 30%.
The techs will recover once the doom period of out-sourcing stand of Obama is clear in regulations & acts until then the range bound will keep shifting day after day.
The skeptics of reality sector got some decent price rise of more than 20% put their wishes in action placed a cap on the up move but the Bulls have hopes on Govt’s stimulus package. The petro rate cut will further ease on the inflation but the transport costs neither decrease due to this cut nor increase the volume.
The RBI package can add considerable impact on the direction of the Nifty, if it favours the Bulls, then the Nifty will cross the 3100 level with out any resistance.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
The Vengeance of Bulls…
The Bulls settled scores with Bears to cover their positions in the Banking giant SBI. The RIL has shown its strength lately but firmly. The infrastructure stocks sky rocketed as if there was a Bull run going. The net result is a gain of more than 132 points on Nifty.
I clearly mentioned in my last posting as …(.. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions…). The RIL once crossed the resistance above 1093 shooted upto 1170, SBI is strong above 1085 made a low at 1095 touched a high of 1175 but the only special mention required is for ONGC, failed to cross the 680 level today and it has to cross the resistance.
The inflation was at 8.4% a considerable drop from a top around 12% a few months back is very encouraging. This can further fall if the petro prices are cut and liquidity is infused can kick start the economic activity back on fast track.The markets have good bounce with volumes in beaten down sectors like Reality and metals but the laggards participated with low volume, tech need no special mention.
The major economies like England reduced the interest rates and the France opted for a stimuli package to boost the ailing economy. We are no less than other but our heads need a stimulus to announce it.
As mentioned earlier posts that … The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow in favour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels. Now the markets are in different orbit will take time to make a significant move to cross the 3080 resistance but the bottom support is at 2635-45 level, which may be challenged if things worsen then we may test new lows again but it will be for a stronger bounce.
The kick start generated today may consume some time to gain the momentum as we are coming out of woods/darkness. The pessimism cannot be over lapped with positive feel with this kind of move but the foundations were laid.
I clearly mentioned in my last posting as …(.. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions…). The RIL once crossed the resistance above 1093 shooted upto 1170, SBI is strong above 1085 made a low at 1095 touched a high of 1175 but the only special mention required is for ONGC, failed to cross the 680 level today and it has to cross the resistance.
The inflation was at 8.4% a considerable drop from a top around 12% a few months back is very encouraging. This can further fall if the petro prices are cut and liquidity is infused can kick start the economic activity back on fast track.The markets have good bounce with volumes in beaten down sectors like Reality and metals but the laggards participated with low volume, tech need no special mention.
The major economies like England reduced the interest rates and the France opted for a stimuli package to boost the ailing economy. We are no less than other but our heads need a stimulus to announce it.
As mentioned earlier posts that … The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow in favour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels. Now the markets are in different orbit will take time to make a significant move to cross the 3080 resistance but the bottom support is at 2635-45 level, which may be challenged if things worsen then we may test new lows again but it will be for a stronger bounce.
The kick start generated today may consume some time to gain the momentum as we are coming out of woods/darkness. The pessimism cannot be over lapped with positive feel with this kind of move but the foundations were laid.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
The fight for survival…..
The day displayed a strong fight for survival of the market at 2650 level. As posted earlier the high light of the day is the smart recovery of SBI to close above 1085. The RIL is struggling to gain strength to move up but it displayed a decent fight against the Bears. The ONGC and Bharti were subdued despite good effort by the Banking lot to move up. The star of the day is Tata Steel posted 10% rise with huge volume and the DLF made equal volume with good show to cross the 191-93 resistance. The LIC Housing along and SUN gave above 20% rise in the non index shares is a clear sign of shuffling and choosing the future out performers.
The techs lost the sheen due to foreign brokerage house CLSA report dented the growth in share rise, Infosys chopped down by 4.3% Wipro TCS and Satyam were no exception. The teleco lost value by 3-5% but the autos recovered on short covering. The Banking sector posted decent gains on the hopes of fall in inflation that can force the Central bank to take an early decision on rate cuts.
The Nifty is at cross roads and waiting for break out. In case the RIL fails to cross the 1093 level and trades below 1040-35 then the markets will easily touch the 2000-2100 level with out much resistance from Bulls. The SBI gained but the RIL, ONGC and Bharti are in negative territory with new members from tech sector. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions.
In case BHEL and LT recovers then there was some glimmer of hope in the capital goods and Infrastructure sector that build due to the NHAI announcements.
The techs lost the sheen due to foreign brokerage house CLSA report dented the growth in share rise, Infosys chopped down by 4.3% Wipro TCS and Satyam were no exception. The teleco lost value by 3-5% but the autos recovered on short covering. The Banking sector posted decent gains on the hopes of fall in inflation that can force the Central bank to take an early decision on rate cuts.
The Nifty is at cross roads and waiting for break out. In case the RIL fails to cross the 1093 level and trades below 1040-35 then the markets will easily touch the 2000-2100 level with out much resistance from Bulls. The SBI gained but the RIL, ONGC and Bharti are in negative territory with new members from tech sector. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to trap the Bears to cover their positions.
In case BHEL and LT recovers then there was some glimmer of hope in the capital goods and Infrastructure sector that build due to the NHAI announcements.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Recovered but weak…..
The markets took the support once it touched the low at 2571 level and it managed to claw back to close at 2657 level a much needed support to Nifty above 2630 level and the weakness in RIL and ONGC is a great concern at this point in time.
The Australia cut the lending rates by 100 bps and our top brass discussing for the timing. The stimulus package announced to has some bearing on Infrastructure companies but the release of funds and the cost that matters a lot at this hour. The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow infavour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels.
In case the resistance at 2750 level crossed with ease, close above 2735-42 will add value to Bulls efforts. The bears will cover the positions as the positive news unfolds as progress progresses and the Nifty may touch again 3280-3300 level with short covering.
The only threatening concern unfolding is the verbal war with neighbours on Mumbai blasts can easily change the direction in case the situation provoked for a war on the terrorist camps.
The RIL has to cross the 1120 level, SBI has to cross the 1085 level and ONGC has to trade above 705level to see the Nifty to scale for new territory above 2860 level.
The Australia cut the lending rates by 100 bps and our top brass discussing for the timing. The stimulus package announced to has some bearing on Infrastructure companies but the release of funds and the cost that matters a lot at this hour. The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow infavour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels.
In case the resistance at 2750 level crossed with ease, close above 2735-42 will add value to Bulls efforts. The bears will cover the positions as the positive news unfolds as progress progresses and the Nifty may touch again 3280-3300 level with short covering.
The only threatening concern unfolding is the verbal war with neighbours on Mumbai blasts can easily change the direction in case the situation provoked for a war on the terrorist camps.
The RIL has to cross the 1120 level, SBI has to cross the 1085 level and ONGC has to trade above 705level to see the Nifty to scale for new territory above 2860 level.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
