Spectacular grip……

The Bulls hold the spectacular grip over the markets and saved the day with de-coupling with the rest of the world. The journey calculators went on counting the points added from the low to the highest but the markets interested to make a new high each time and every time for the last one month.

The correction happened only one day and the rest is internal and intraday. The side lined waiting money woke-up and starts chasing the stocks for now as if we are in a run-up Bull market. The RIIL has again made a 40% gain and the sugar stocks rallied by 15-20%.

The SGX Nifty suggests that the Asian markets are in green with Hang Sang by 1.35% and the Nikkei up by 1.8% and we are likely to open above 3400 with 50-60 points gap up. As suggested in my earlier the Nifty will take a breather here (………The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.)

The Nifty has good support at 3050 level and very good support at 2960-50 level. The markets rallied enough to cross the hurdles at 3135 and 3280 level. So the fall will become weak and bearish only when Nifty trades below 3000 level. The corrections will be stock specific and the overall markets are in higher orbit.

The Nifty has resistance at 3423 level and the support at 3311-09 and at 3273-71 level.
The Reliance rallied yesterday beyond expectation 1763 and the selling may come at 1787 level. The bottom support will come for today at 1706 and at 1695-91 level. The counter will become weak below 1693 level.

The bear hug counters like BHEL will become very weak below 1495 and it will get short covering if at all only above 1540 level. The other weak counter is Bharti will become weak below 620 level is facing resistance at 670 level. India bulls realest may see some selling pressure above 137-39 level and Rolta will face resistance to cross Rs75-77.

The counters like ICICI which went up on low activity may run up to 393 and to 403-06 level so long it trades above 373 level. It will become weak below 368 level.
The Rel Infra is good above 616 to touch 660 level but will become weak below 603 level. In case the stock shall not trades below 593 will see selling pressure from short sellers and the bull un-winding will accelerate for every 5 rupee fall.

Correction in the momentum…..?

The markets across the globe are taking a breather in the Bull run initiated 4-weeks back. The Indian markets displayed the much required strength against the bad times when US falling to touch its 25 year lows and participated in the bounce back. Now the real testing time to our markets whether we could de-couple and rise or not?.

The SGXNifty suggests that the Nifty could see a cut of nearly 90 points in the opening. The Asian markets were down and Yester day holiday saved our cut but today Bears exert more pressure on the Bulls to hold the ground above 3150 level. The early morning support may come at 3130 level but the Nifty has support at 3080.

The RIL has the initial support at 1617-23 level and may touch 1594-91 level to bounce sharply above the first support level.
The HDFC the star performer may loose some strength but it is in the Bull grip so long it trades above 1609-1620 has the potential to touch 1945-60 level.
The much roller coaster rider with great swings either side happened on Monday in Rel Infra may yield to selling pressure; get support at 676-73 level and at 666 level. The scrip will rally to 669 level once it trades above 593 after this correction which may trap the bears by touching 532-526 level.

The best out-performers of the recent rally- LT has good support at 720-16 level and get very good support at 701-03 level, the RCOM will get support at 186-188 level, the Bharti is in Bull grip sol long it trade above 617-21 level.

The metal may correct sharply. The Sail likely to touch 93 level, The Tata steel may touch 206-09 level and the Sterlite may touch 345-43 level.
The correction will check the journey when the SBI reaches 1025-35 range, Relcap touches 369-73 range and the ICICI touches 329-324 range.

The strength displayed…..

The markets showed their positive strength on the back of Asian markets rally. The opening was so bullish but failed to hold on the gains due to the weakness in RIL, SBI, HUL and ITC but closed in positive territory with the help from RCOM, Bharti, LT, HDFC and HDFC bank.
The mid-cap rally is phenomenon be it ESSAR OIL BY 50%, RIIL BY
40%, GITANJALI BY 25%, MRPL & CHENNAI PETRO rose close to 20%. The rally is very sharp and interesting to complete the cycle to squeeze the retail short sellers in the market. These moves will threaten the other dare devils to think of selling in the market even though their calling is right. These pre-empting techniques are useful to the market movers/operators to manage their stocks to their tunes.

The market leader RIL seems exhausted, this can be confirmed when the Reliance fails to trade above 1693 level as the Reliance high made Monday at Rs1742/- is a clear indication of capping at the top. The correction may lead the stock to touch support at 1535-45 range.
The Nifty has first support at 3109-18 level and the second support at 3020-26 level. The Nifty will become weak only when it trades below the second support level. The consequent 3 day lows at 2962-66 level any way come to rescue the Bulls even a deep correction is un-warranted.
The Banking lot will correct sharply by more than 20% in this fall but the resilience to bounce is still inherent.

The Asian surge….

The Asian markets are trading in green with a positive move up wards by 2.5-3.5% but with an exception of Shanghai Composite in red. The markets are filled with josh that could lead this rally further as the negative data coming is not surprising to the markets as it is used to live with.

The SGX Nifty is suggesting that the Nifty is well above the resistance level at 4265-80 level and currently trading at 4335 with low as 4265. So the markets shall run on its course as the Bulls are hungry for more. The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.

The good policy is to avoid fresh entry at this level. The Nifty likely to get support at 2935-65 level while coming down can be an etry point. The Nifty built this empire with a classic bottom building process at 2565 level for 3-days and 2740-2773 for 3-days and 2962-66 for 3 consequent days. So even by simple averaging theory suggests that the market has good support at 2775 level.

The Reliance was the first to move the Index has resistance at 1848 level and good support existed at 1535-15 level. The Rel-infra has the potential to touch 609-11 level and likely to touch 669-73 level in coming days so long it stays above 551-53 level.

The Banking giant though lagging the run but has potential to touch 1320 level if it stays above 1060-65 level. The ICICI bank is the most battered stock even in the recent bull-run is running in line with others but with great exhaustion may face resistance at 393 level but can be expected to touch 416-21 level. The stocks like NTPC, HDFC, HUL, Axis Bank and Bharti are becoming hot favourites for Shorting.

The Rally reached………….

The markets enjoyed the rally despite of all economic bad news and demand contraction at home but on US markets. The global markets were enthused by the US rally because every else country is in a better position the worst effected. Now the news headlines carrying the 17 month old recession is now taking efforts to rise from the lows. The same thing has reflected in their indices.

The dependant emerging markets (third world) countries will now feel the heat as there could be some time lag to face the challenges. Now the real testing times a head to our Indian corporate houses to overcome both the demand contraction at home and shrinking margin abroad. The US will place many restrictions to save their economy and the exporters will face the margin pressure as the Rupee already reached a level. So every 1% of rupee strengthens place the exporters at very disadvantage position. The plant shut downs of the new offshore acquisitions will squeeze the top corporate houses and the interest burden will erode the little earnings made. Now the future for Indian corporate houses is very challenging and so is their market cap.

The Nifty has cross the earlier resistance at 2860 level with ease as it could absorb the selling pressure at 2550-2630 level while the US is testing the Multi-year lows at DOW and NASDAQ. The rally is sharp and the openings wee also above 60-100 points on Nifty at the 3000 level to 3200 level shows the squeeze faced by the short sellers who expected the Nifty to follow US in down turn. This could propel the short covering above 3080 level to test the 3229 level. So is the case with Bank Nifty from 3320 to 4425 level. The stocks gained more than 40 to 80% from their lows in this 700 points Nifty rally triggered on first week end of March to date. The first quarter results and the predictions of the strength of the Third Front will carry the tunes to the market. As of now the Nifty may face resistance at 3280 level and may correct sharply.

how far is .....

The extreme side of the market direction from a high of 6357 is the depth of fall one is expecting to stop and at an early date. The effort is to understand and analyse the swings......

The critical analysis shows that the markets are in tail spin fall to a dismal low of 2253.75 on 27-10-2008 from a high of 6357 on 08-01-2009.

The All-time High: 6357 and the All-time Low: 2253

The high to fall 6357 to 4448.50 low registered on 22-01-08 in 10 trading sessions with a fall of 1890 points is the begining........

HIGH : DATE LOW: DATE
6357.00 08-01-08 4448.50 22-01-08
5391.60 29-01-08 5071.15 31-01-08
5545.20 04-02-08 4803.60 11-02-08
5368.45 19-02-08 4620.50 10-03-08
5019.20 12-03-08 4468.55 18-06-08
4970.80 28-03-08 4628.75 16-04-08
5298.95 02-05-08 4913.80 12-05-08
5167.40 16-05-07 4536.25 05-06-08
4626.45 09-06-08 4369.80 10-05-06
4679.75 18-06-08 4093.20 25-06-08
4324.75 26-06-08 3848.25 02-07-08
4114.50 07-07-08 3896.05 08-07-08
4215.50 11-07-08 3790.20 16-07-08
4539.45 24-07-08 4159.15 29-07-08
4615.90 06-08-08 4464.00 08-08-08
4649.45 12-08-09 4248.00 22-08-08
4398.80 25-08-08 4201.85 28-11-08
4522.40 02-09-08 4328.90 05-09-08
4558.00 08-09-08 3919.35 16-09-08
4303.25 22-09-08 3715.05 30-09-08
4000.50 01-10-08 3198.95 10-10-08
3648.25 14-10-08 3046.60 17-10-08
3254.85 21-10-08 2252.75 27-10-08
3240.55 05-11-08 2502.90 20-11-09
2832.85 01-12-08 2570.70 02-12-08
3110.45 22-12-08 2701.75 15-01-09
2868.20 19-01-09 2661.75 23-01-09
2969.75 13-02-09 2539.45 06-03-09

SENSEX below 3 year low…

The SENSEX is below 3 year low, where as the inflation was at 2002
levels.

The regular readers might have understood the supports and resistance levels and how they works. The Nifty is still a out-performer when it compared with the rest but the outflow of money due to the global giant financial institutions crumbling performance cast a shadow on our banking sector and on markets.

In my earlier post it was mentioned the Reliance levels and the ONGC today the RIL high at 1220 and low at 1142 level and the ONGC took support at 637 . The Nifty took support at 2564 but it did not tried to cross the 2680 at time.

Now the markets are under severe selling pressure that to delivery based selling by institutions forcing the markets down. The Asian markets are ok and the yesterday cue from Europe and US also good but we did not follow them just because now a days we are a head of them…leading them.

Against all odds.......

The 12 year low of DOW in US and the free fall in Europe due to the financial sector fall out did not effected Nifty but forced mourning was inevitable to express and act in line with them. The markets took all pains to stay above 2700 despite of meltdown in US and other European markets for some time and till yester day the lower supports were protected at 2650 level.
The Nifty now has to trade above 2740 level to avoid the debacle. In my earlier posting clearly mentioned the momentum loss in heavy weight despite the Nifty moving up to cross the 2930 hurdle. The RIL, ONGC and NTPC managed the show.
The challenge now is to see the quick recovery from the lows. The Nifty has to move above 2680 level to absorb the selling pressure without violating the immediate support at 2550. The RIL suddenly crumbled in late hour of trade below 1220 to touch a low of 1175 is the cause of concern.
The Asian markets are in green especially the China and the recovery in US failed to hold till closing in US is not a good sign. The SGX Nifty suggests a flat opening, today the Nifty may face resistance at 2741-43 level may get support at 2584-79 level and next at 2550 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1221-1218 level and will become weak below 1191 level may get support at 1146-51 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 663-66 level may get support at 642-39 level.
The severely beaten Rel Infra may face resistance at 451 level may get support at 426 level and next at 421 level, in case it fails to cross the 441 it may test 401-396 level in next two days.
The ICICI may face resistance at 311-08 level may get support at 281and level two support may emerge at 373. The Relcap may face resistance at 331-33 level.
In my earlier posting suggested that the Bharti may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level touched 594.

The US falls out….

The markets across the globe are in a queue to accept the US markets decision as DOW falls to 6-year lows. The Nifty is holding above 2735 could be a challenge as the global concern has worsen than expected. The Nifty at home was down by Budget sentiment and followed by the US concern could hold for two days above 2750. The recovery in RIL is very important as the Banking sector lost more than 15% in some stocks and around 10% in most of the heavy weights despite the expectation of rate cut on the cards.

The stocks like GE shipping moved up from 187 to 225 levels now back to square. The ICICI from 360 levels to 440 levels now back to 360 levels. The effort made to move was used to exit is the main problem in the markets. The HNIs, MFs and FIIs have little conviction that the world economy will recover soon so is the Indian economy.
The Nifty is good above 2803 as Reliance good above 1306. The markets today may not hold above 2780 level cold test 2704 level first and the better support exists at 2680 level. The volumes were dried up and the trading has been confined to limited stocks with high degree of volatility based on news/expectations.

Today Nifty may face resistance at 2793 level may get support at 2724-29 level and next at 2703-05 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1301-1298 level and will become weak below 1281 level may get support at 1246 level and next at 1238 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 683-86 level may get support at 662 level and next at 651-53 level. The Rel Infra may face resistance at 516 level may get support at 486 level and next at 473-71 level where the recent bottom support exists.
The ICICI may face resistance at 373-75 level may get support at 341-42level. The Relcap may face resistance at 381-83 level may get support at 359-57 level. The Bharti which built huge open interest at 640 CA may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level. The BHEL is facing resistance above 1410-12 level may correct steeply if it closes below 1350 level.
The Asian Markets are trading in red with nearly1.5 - 2% cut and the ADRs were not deeply cut. The SGX Nifty is trading at 2740 level down by 52 points. The challenge now is to recover from the lows. In case the Govt willing to provide easy liquidity situation by signaling RBI to cut the CRR and Repo rate cuts to spur the local demand as the inflation is totally under control may save our markets, other wise the markets next broad range will be in a range of 2830-2420 for next quarter.

The determined bulls…..

The Nifty though weak by its level it didn’t let the Bears to take ride across the board. The Asian markets were weak and weak global cues did not help the Bears much to have a run as they wish but the Bull made their best effort to save the territory.

Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: As suggested in the morning post, Nifty could display its strength with a positive picture despite of weak global cues but tried to post nearly +36 points at one point in time. The Nifty made a come back to show a green close from a low of 2736 to touch a high of 2806.85 before closing at 2776.15

The Reliance took support at the first support level at 1240. The ONGC could not cross the 690 level as the high made was at 689.80
The ICICI high did not crossed but came to 365 low, expected 368 level. The Relcap high touched at 387.80 low touched 371.35. The Rel infra in the morning it could trade above 521 level and 17 lakhs traded above that level and the minute it fell below the 511 support level first touché at 496 later after a recovery to 516 then fell back to 493.35 as expected.

The inevitable…..

The Nifty is facing serious threat while moving up due to the US heading to deep recession that could not be saved with Obama package. The treat is that the IT outsourcing companies may face the difficulties as well the exporters.
The Nifty is down from a high of 2970 to 2757 in two days as it fell on 7th Jan from 3150 level 2750 in three days and that registered high was not crossed till date despite many global favourable news and rallies.

It seems that the US DOW likely to breach the Nov-lows but we may go close to 2500 level but the lows registered will not be breached so long we trade above 2550 level. The markets are weak to move but they are strong at the bottom as bottom fishing is seen in the heavy weights.

Today the Nifty has to cross the 2810 level in the intra day movement to exhibit its strength for future. The Nifty is weak below 2835 level and may get support first at 2685 level and next at 2650 level. The ONGC is good above 690 level and may get support at 650 level, it will become weak it breaches the immediate major support at 630-625 level. The Reliance has rallied from 1065 to 1405 lost nearly half to touch 1258 could get support first at 1236-39 level and the immediate good support seen at 1221-23 level. The ICICI is good above 389 and weak below 381 to touch 371 and 368 range from where the earlier move started. The Rel infra is good above 521-23 level weak below 511-09 to touch 493 and next at 486. The Relcap is weak below 386 level to touch the earlier support at 361-63 level.The issue of pledged shares demanding additional margin will effect the prices once the drop below by 20% to the recent supports.
The Asian markets are trading in red due to the spill over effect of US. The SGX-Nifty was down by nearly 33 points at 2723 level.

The belied hopes……..

The Nifty has taken severe Bear beating due to weak global cues and the down turn in the Asian markets. The belied expectations of the markets pushed hard to un-wind the long positions built over the fortnight. This could be the major reason for the Nifty heavy weights opened below yesterday lows.
The news flow is also no good to help the Bulls to hang on their positions. The Europe melts down by 3%and the US is bleeding. In case the US fails to recover at least 2% from the bottom then our markets likely to crumble on its weight.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
As posted in the morning, the Nifty took support at 2757 and the high registered at 2855 (2857-62high and low at 2750)
The Reliance took support at took support at 1258.20 and the high touched at 1307. The ONGC high 689.4and the low touched at Rs 670.0.The ICICI bank though touched high at 438.8 but it did not cross 405 at any point but touched a low at 380.20. The RelInfra has got support at 507.65 touched a high at 528.8

The “LONGS” unwinding…..

The interim budget has everything for the forth coming elections but not for the industry. It is more so for the stock markets. How can we expect fire works from a Govt that faces elections with in 3 months?. The rumors were spread to attract retail positions building in longs and the HNI/operator building on the other side to make some quick money in a week. It is very unlikely that a retailer build against position.

The Nifty was at same closing level when a comparison made with a week back levels show that the stocks in F&O sector are still in the positive territory despite of the Nifty falls by100 points. The Nifty has built solid foundation of bottom building at 2660-90 for 5 consecutive days and at 2750-80 for 6 consecutive trading days. So the is very likely to get support at these levels. The recent top for Nifty was capped at 2926-69 level for 6 trading days.

As the home bound down trend, Erope weakness and the current melt down of Asian markets may put pressure in the opening. If we take a cue from the SGX-Nifty down by nearly 30 points may trigger more unwinding. The Nifty for this day could face resistance at 2857-62 level. The support is likely to emerge at 2780 and at 2750 level. The RIL is good for long only when it trades above 1375-73 level. The RIL will become weak if it trades below 1260 level. But it may face resistance at 1351-53 level for today and the bottom support first at 1291-93 level and further fall may take it to 1271 level.

The ICICI took support at 406 level which I wrote in my earlier posts (……..that The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. …………The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions………..).The Relcap took support at 396 level and SBI above 1126 level. Now the triggers for this sector are lacking but a ray of hope still alive as RBI expected to go for a rate cut soon. The RBI may announce at least 50bps rate cut in CRR to infuse more liquidity in the system after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The ONGC is weak below 694 and good above 705, ICICI may face resistance at 416-18 level and good above 429 only. The bottom support may emerge at 391-88 level. The Rel infra is good above 546 weak below 539 and the bottom support first at 505 and at 496 level.

The strength displayed……

The markets displayed the much needed strength despite the global pressures. The Nifty could hold above the 2886 level and the bottom support has not violated yet.

The bottom building process for the Nifty and for the important stocks like ONGC, ICICI, RELCAP, BHARTI, RCOM,HDFC HDFC Bank and may other. Now the strength was weakened due to RIL underperformance. Unless RIL trades above 1493 the Nifty could head no where. The markets are hoping to get support from RBI for rate cuts and stimulus package from GOI.
The Railway package can influence today before the interim budget on Monday.

The Nifty is strong above 2915 and weak below 2893, RIL is good above 1391 weak below 1381, ONGC is good above 706 and weak below 694, Infosys is weak below 1304 and weak below 1289, ICICI is weak below 411 and good above 421-23, Relcap is good above 426 and weak below 416 level.

The Asian drag….

The Asian markets are in no good mood to move up can spread their shadow on our markets. The Nifty is good above 2915 level and has resistance above 2950 level.
The RIL may face resistance at 1405-08 level and will become weak below 1383 level to touch a low at 1341-43 level. The ONGC one of the leading counters of Nifty has suddenly got support with the 1200 cr IT case facing resistance at 720 level will become weak below 693 level will touch 671-73 level. The immediate support levels will hold as the markets are enjoying the Bulls support.
The two days consequent bear hammering on Relinfra right from the 593-96 level brought it down to 527 level could recover to 542 level. The scrip shall not trade below 511-14. The markets may re-rate RIL and the fertilizer companies with the gas supply.
Yesterday star performers like ICICI and Relcap may continue to get Bulls support. The ICICI is good above 421 levels but it has resistance at 447-46 level. The Relcap has resistance at 432-35 region but is good above 411.
The beaten down stocks made good recovery, be it ZEE, EDUCOM or MC-DOWELL. Yesterday ZEE lost nearly all the gain made in the previous session.

The holding is ……….

The Nifty is fighting against all odds to stay afloat above 2900 level despite of the global pressures, enthused Bears are pulling down but managing to close above 2918 is a good sign to out-perform in future.
The day was saved by the Banking giants along with the telecom leaders as the FDI norms eased. The strength in the market to cross the 2955 level was at cross roads for sure as the heavy weights like LT, Bharti, NTPC, HDFC, HDFC bank, RIL and ONGC are fully saturated for now but the momentum in ICICI and Relcap with support from the reality gainst saved the day. Now it looks difficult for the Nifty to trade above 2955 level unless RIL trades above 1405 and ONGC above 720.
The news flow was lean to support the long waited but initiated bull move to take a momentum journey to scale above 3050 level. The Obama package has value but the most needed immediate triggers for the market lies in US consumer spending and rescuing the banks from the ill-liquid assets. At home the Govt interim budget shall focus on the Govt. spending on infra-structure/allocation and providing liquidity in the system.

The best to cross…..

The Friday rally in US markets shall trigger rally in our markets as well. The Asian markets are also taking cues from the US trading in green with 1-2% gains. The opening can be in green but the afternoon holding on higher levels will determine the upward movement of the Nifty.
The Nifty has shown its first signs of revival to move upwards were shown in the last Friday on 30th Jan but failed to hold on the gains to gain momentum due to tiredness in buying interest as no global cues supported. The Nifty made a high of 2881 on 30th Jan either crossed or the closing was made below the low of 2750 level. The whole week was maintained between these 150 points.
Now once again the Nifty made a reattempt to close above 2835 level. The strengths were drawn from the heavy weights like RIL, ONGC, NTPC, HUL and Infosys along with renewed buying interest in metal pack and the bottom support to IT and Banking sector pushed the Nifty upward.
The bullishness in the RIL came to a resistance level unless it closes above 1375 level. The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. The ADRs rally though gives some relief to techs but the US policies dampen the interest in these counters.
The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions. The metals especially the ferrous sector has bright future as the infrastructure spending especially in sea ports and airports will get further boost.

The hope beneath …..

The markets are expecting some miracle to save from the grave situation. The fast deterioration of the confidence at the future is the main concern. This is more worrying in India than in US. The world has accepted the fact that the US is in recession that to in deep but the un conventional accenting facts that are fast emerging is that the future of the emerging markets are also becoming bleak.
The Indian authorities are confident that the growth rate is at 7% but the fall in the commodities and the real estate sector is hurting the investment proposals. The auto sector is reeling under demand contraction is a classic example of slow down in economy. When there is slow down in goods vehicles is that there is less produce to transport and no demand to export or import.
The no industry not impacted by the demand slow down but the positive signs of price movement can be felt in the same transport sector- the rise in the prices of GE Shipping, SCI, Maruti, Hero Honda and the slight up ward movement in the commodity sectors- ACC, Grasim, Ultra tech, Sail, and in Tata steel are the early signs of knowlegible HNI-people/sources entering to garner the large chunk at deep discount.
The pure technicals show that the markets are at no where movement but the violence is deep during the intraday isnot a good sign for an early Bull move. The bears are determined to short at every rise is helpful to scale new highs in a Bull market is a detrimental force while the markets are finding secured bottom to build an up move. But the fact of the life is that these forces strengthen if the markets can stand against the storm.
The Nifty could build a bottom at 2665-85 level in the early part between 21st -27th Jan and then at 2750-2780 level between 28th to 6th Feb-09. During this process the Nifty did not make any trail to cross the 2880 level on closing basis. Incase Nifty can close above the important resistance level due to the positive global cues then it could easily touch the 3050 level.

The symmetry and possibility….

The stock market is the best approved place where the history is well recognized to predict the future. The technical analysts are interested to extrapolate with an extension/drawn forward to predict the future based on the past. So the stock market predictors rely on the past and believe that the past is filled with vigor to reap profits in future. To draw a conclusion on the matter I want to go to a thumb rule to read the future performance.The possibility ofa repetition to make right symmetry could be possible at Nifty.

The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.

The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.

The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.

The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..
………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????

The foundations…..

The laid down foundations for the Nifty are strong if could rise to see better heights. The strength of Nifty at the 2700-2750 is displayed well but cap at the top at 100-150 points above is worrisome.
As the previous post mentioned the Nifty made a recovery to cross the resistance at 2830 level touched a high 2835.65 and comfortably closed above 2790 level at 2828.45 is a good relief sign that the bottoms are in tact at least for now. But on the contrary side the FIIs are buying since 12th in selective stock futures (373+566+371+207-26 crores) where as they are heavy short in Index futures ((-408) + (-1444) + (-470) + (-303) + (-1017)) shows that the Nifty future out look is bleak.
The Reliance lead rally to pull from the lows shall spread to other counters. The mush hyped Obama bail-out cum stimulus package can trigger rally in US may have spill over effect. The hope on US is high despite of the crumbling economy as the troubles keep darker nights long.

The important results are a head in the next week to influence the direction as their leadership lays future road map of Nifty- ITC, Rolta ,Triveni, TTML- 19th Monday.
The results of Dr Reddy, HeroHonda, MRPL, Mahidra life, Polaris, RPL and Relcap on 20th Tuesday .
The results of Biocon, HDFC, United spirits, Wipro , Yes bank and Zeel on 21st Wednesday,
The results of Bank of India, Bharti airtel, Bharat forge, Cipla, Idea, Kotak bank, NDTV, Praj, Reliance, Rel Infra, Relpower, and Voltas on 22nd Thursday.
The results of Canara Bank, Crompton Greaves, HCL Tech, IDBI, Punj Lloyd, RCOM, RNRL, Syndicate Bank ,Tanla and Tech Mahidra and Vijaya Bank on 23rdFriday .
The results of important companies like ICICI bank, NTPC, SBI, SCI, Sterlite, Sun will be announced on 24th, Saturday where as the hind Unilever on Sunday.