No easy up move…

The Nifty could stay above 5085 level as expected to show the resilence to fall but the up move for future is not assured, so not so easy as it happed a week days before.
The RIL good above 1029 and weak below 1013, is though weak but the court order can chart the future course of action. There are number of companies got the IT notices and the issue may shadow the up move as many sponsers on their radar. The Europe is grappled with the financial Greece trouble and the UK election uncertainity cannot be ruled out as the future govt. may be of coalition, as per the reports.
The Nifty neighter broke the down side support nor the upside resistance. The Tatamotors trades above 847 then the markets are strong and Nifty for early consolidation. Incase it trades below 826 then the Nifty may see lower levels.
The metals are not out of bear pressure until Sail trades above 220 and Ster trades above 780 level. The SBI came out with the JV news may see profit booking below 2250 level and may move futher up above 2290 level.

Does this a severe fall ...???

The Nifty lowers levels are expected but the reasons for the fall are more serious than the technicals and likely to turn out to be a serious blow to markets. The heavy weights now will follow the trend and weigh pressure on the Nifty. If this happens then the Nifty is capped at 5220 for some time now and may take months to recover. The Nifty may find it difficult to bounce to higher levels if it trades below 5080 level for more than 3 trading sessions.and the low shall not trade below 4985-5015 level at any given point of time.
The RIL may be due to the anticipation of the favourable court order ( RNRL-RIL case), could stay above 1000 level but the support can be expected from 983 level. The SBI,  star performer may find support from 2220-14 level. This could even become an indicator for the temporary bottoming of Nifty. The Tata Motors is another Bull scip which may find buyers at 803-07 level form where the Nifty also likely to get bounce or by below 10 more rupees a sure bounce is expected in the scip and in Nifty.
The world markets are getting effect with China’s exnomic policies and bruing asset bubble. The commodity stocks got hammered due to this reason but they bounce with vengence as the Indian economy is fast growing, so is the US. For now, there are no rules for this week at least, likely to loose 5-6 percent on the Index, wow basis due to the emotional street involvent is an indicator to go by.

The Nifty at cross roads???

The bears gain strength when the Nifty trades below 5230 level and the bulls may try to push it above the threshold level at 5252-63 range. The Nifty is getting consolidation with lower level buying but the fall to 5080 level is imment before the take to higher level is expected.
The fall by 55 points gave consolidation of the tech majors and the the reality sector. The JSW steel better than expected results can take the Tatasteel to again to 635-640 level and the DLF can touch 323-21 level. The Bombay slum development projects to the reality majors can prop the further fall.
The fall though happened due to the correction in metal majors and the reliance along with correction banking majors may find buyers. The Nifty will feel the real pressure from bears when it fails to cross the 5251 level. The Tata Motors, Infy, ONGC and SBI may correct further along with Reliance to bring the Nifty to lower levels and the rest will follow them.
Incase Nifty trade above 5229 level and the low is above 5209 level then the markets may find some buyers again. The longterm buying is happening evey time Nifty fall to 5200 level.
The major fall happened in the second rung PSU banks due to their poor performance. The South India bank, Indian Bank, Central bank and Union bank attracted exist option at higher level. They same will happen to the majors due to the inflation concerns. The power equipment majors lile ABB fell due to poor forecast. The markets showed real weakness and likely to continue in the mid and small cap stocks.
The metal & mineral companies like Sesa Goa, Guj NRE are facing the heat of relentless rise of Rupee. The oil importing companies are enjoying the same at the otherend.
The RIL has to trade above 1031 in the early trade and to close above 1039 to review the situation, otherwise the counter is under severe bear pressure. The ICICI has to trade above 1042 level and low shall not breach below 925. The Tata Motors though under bull grip can see profit book wthout crossing high 874-76 level. The Tata steel in the morning has to cross the resistance at 618 to negate the pressure.

STILL VALID..

The article covered in the Business standard is still Valid.The Nifty is in the range bound, looking for enough shorts to build before gearing up for the final target beyod 5480. Please read.....
Next target is 5,450  Devangshu Datta / New Delhi April 12, 2010, 0:41 IST

Resistance above 5,375 .The market made net gains, and recorded a new 52-week high of 5,399 points (Nifty) before settling to close at 5,361.75 for a week-on-week gain of 1.35 per cent. The Sensex was up 1.36 per cent while the Defty rose 2.76 per cent on the back of a rupee surge.
Volumes improved in both cash and derivatives markets. For the first time after the Budget, domestic institutions and FIIs were both net buyers in unison. The BSE 500 was up 1.7 per cent while the Junior rose 1.8 per cent and the Midcaps was ahead 2.92 per cent.
Outlook: It looks as though the market has some upside left and a target of about 5,450 could be achieved next week. Right now, the Nifty is straining to overcome resistance in the 5,350-5,400 zone. This is week 10 of an intermediate uptrend so it may be close to maturity. On the downside, there is support in roughly 50 point intervals below the current price. The support at 5,200 seems particularly strong.
Rationale: The continuing pattern of rising peaks and rising troughs confirms the uptrend. The synchronisation of institutional attitude and the improved volumes and breadth are good signals. But there is a lot of resistance above current levels and in absolute terms, volumes aren’t great. So, the market could slog through a narrow range despite its apparent Northwards bias.
Intermediate trends generally last between 6-12 weeks though they can last longer if they are in phase with the long-term trend like this one. The last phase often sees a sudden explosion of volumes and a sharp rise. Barring such a volume expansion, the Nifty will be unable to overcome resistance above 5,450.
Counter-view: Momentum signals aren’t very good. The intermediate trend is nearly mature. A trend reversal next week cannot be ruled out. A short-term correction could pull the market down to support at 5,200. If it drops below that point, it would be prudent to assume that the intermediate trend is correcting though that wouldn’t be confirmed.
Bulls & Bears: IT stocks saw weakness and the CNXIT was down 0.55 per cent. This could be a danger signal since Infosys result kicks off the full year result season and the strong rupee has already led to cutbacks in expectations. It could have been even worse except for short-covering on Friday.
Financials were strong in general. So were a host of interest-sensitive engineering and construction businesses. Power equipment and cement were pretty strong as well. Signals were mixed in sectors such as real estate and metals where movements appear to be stock-specific rather than sector-driven. FMCGs were weak with persistent selling in Hindustan Unilever and ITC. Telecom started strong and closed weak. The sector could see more news-driven volatility as 3G auctions play out. Energy is also volatile in the face of rising crude prices. Reliance Industries looked strong however.

Heat & Mansoon series begins

The Nifty could close APRIL SERIES at arround 5260 level, maintained no gain no loss on month on month basis. The PSU banks and other banks made their journey to North. The RIL has crossed the resistance at 1036-39 level and the Ster made a decent rally. The Tata Motors and SBI are in bull grip slong stays above 726 and 2250 level. The major looser are in IT- Mindtree and Educomp, the Ultratech cements.
The Nifty could gain strenth only when RIL and ONGC find some buyers at higher levels. The steep runup in the banking sector may look for some consolidation but the upper level are nearing top.The banking gaint SBI has good support and in full Bull grip above 2250-48 level and ICICI has to stay above 964-66 level to consider the banking stocks has further legs to go. The RIL has serious resistance at 1060 level, the ONGC find resistance at1069-72 level.
The good news for reality sector is the concessions offered by reducing the tax and the urban poor get tax exemptions is a boost to the slum developers and specially to Mumbai and Delhi based reality sector copanies. Earlier it was the mall construction but now it will be slum constuction cats and dogs billionaires. The new mantra will hold for next two to three years.
The Nifty is facing resistance at 5273 level and again at 5293 level. Incase the Nifty stays above the second resistance level the bears needs to take a close look at the positions taken in anticipation of fall. The Bulls are enjoying the good results of corporate India be it tech, banks or oil and gas.
The Pharma sector dependant on foreign pastures, likely to see some pressure in future as the rupee is strenthening and likely to continue the trend for next 6-12 monthe down the line. The reality and infra/construction majors yet to come out with numbers. The good mansoon can trigger further rally otherwise the bulls look for the life saviour news.

F&O squareoff…

There huge retail positions built over the last onemonth once the Nifty has crossed the resistance level at 5280 level. Now it is the same built up now placing weight at the d-day-closing ,Thursday.


The Nifty has gone no where as the last month closure was at 5260 level and now it is close to it. As a matter of fact most beaten down sector of this month baring the Infosys, tech gaints and RIL. The DLF is well above last month close. The Tata Motors as of now is the best gainer over Rs 100 to todays close. The Reliance is the worst effected by 70 rupees due to the forthcoming Judgement, as the tussle with brother costed, speculators betting on Anil.
The ster results and Bonus with spit may hold the price above 800 level but Tata steel and Sail got affected by bea hammering. Now it was the Reliance gas finding news that needs to keep the stock above 1031-36 level, as this guides Nifty, consists more weightage and by sentiment also.
The Bharti results are not bad due to fierece competition existing with the new entrants. The stock likely to close above 303 level as the 3G is to be closed. The tech majors may get some shortcovering support and RIL support may prop up the Nifty to float at 5200 level.

Waning strengh ….

The Nifty is good above 5265 but facing serious resistance at 5370-65 level, despite of repeated attempts by the Bulls to gain strength but became futile efforts. The positive side of the market is that the bull are in controle of the situation but waning as days pass by. The market is revolving arround the 5260-65 level for the last 25 trading sessions with arange of 5160-5360 but the trading volumes increased considerbly is a caution.
The earlier suggested levels are met and now the retacing is happening be it DLF, Bharti, Ster, Tata steel, Reliance and ICICI. The upward movement is still exists in Tata motors, Axis Bank, SBI, Bank of Baroda, Bank India and other PSU banks. The state owned ONGC is now calling for major policy decisions that can trigger a rally above 1071-75 level, possible likely when the next spel of upward journey of Nifty begins. The bears took decent controle over the cement major ACC and Indiacements.
Relcap is creating a bottom support at 730 level but the high capped at 748, aither a break out can offer decent profits. Infosys high resistance is at 2751-55 level and lower support pegged at 2715 level but the buying oportunity is emerging at 2658-65 level for this month F&O. The Reliance is having support at 1050 is likely to be challenged but the immediate support is at 1021-24 level for decent gains. The inflation rate hike dilemma is hurting DLF and HDIL to paricipate in the rise where as the Bharti is down on expectation of poor numbers. The IT majors like TCS and Wipro lkely to get support below 2-3%of their recent lows. The M&M,Ster are classic examples of bounce back. The Sesa goa impact on bad news may get support at 410-415 range to get a bounce to touch 455-61 level.

Time to watch the fight......

The serious Bull supporting traders so surprised by  Nifty at 5180 level but it may be a big opportunity for those whose move to cover the shortsof their 5350 level. The early move of fall triggered when the Nifty low cut the 5345 level and the ONGC cut the 1093 and the worst support case at 1081 level.
The major stocks except Hero Honda, Tatamotors, Infy, TCS wipro and such robust strength stocks, all other shed their 10-13% of their recent highs and the weak counters like ONGC, SAIL shed more than that. Now the market is grappled with fear of global shock if not melt down due to the GOLDMAN. The hiding of facts is known to markets even before the SEC notice as they know in advance by 6 months when the Govt served notices. So it took the market makers to move to two years high in the global indices level, the news broke, just take a brake.
Any way, now we have to deal with the situation and the situation for Bulls is not yet worse. The Nifty took good support for the day at 5160 level but the skewed move of the Nifty movers is a cause of concern.
The yesterday leaders like DLF, Tata Steel, JSW, SesaGoa on the bourses are severely beaten down due to domestic news like inflation and controlling measure to contain inflation. The RBI is going to take stringent measures that affect the real estate and the liquidity in the system. The stocks may find support or hammering but it is certain that the markets are unlikely to cross 5375 level in the next 20 days to one month as the triggers are drying up to charge the Bulls.
Apart from the specific case, the Index will be in good health only when the high crosses 5245-50 level and closes above 5224-28 level by tomorrow evening. The ONGC shall close above 1015 level and high shall cross 1024-26 level, is a good sign to the Nifty. The Nifty is very likely to touch 5080 level for a reasonable bounce but for tomorrow short covering shall happen with out fail. To confirm the same, the major stocks shall cross the highs to take of the resistance like ONGC shall cross the high of 1024, RIL shall cross1077/1084-good, DLF shall cross 324/326 is good, the ster shall cross 841, Bharti shall cross 312, Sail shall cross 227,SBI shall cross 2047, where as ICICI has to cross 939, then we can confirm that the emerging markets are attracting buying.

The "either way" move.....

The easing inflation fattened the Nifty with support drawing from Russia’s Putin tour to India. The NTPC effort to meet the power demand is Reliance gain, So today RIL shall cross the resistance stated yesterday and then may fall to bears but that didn’t deter the bulls to holdon. Now the Nifty is in positive teritory and bulls have 60points advantage.
The much stated visit shall provide answers to the heavy weight laggard to rise to a respectable level to touch 1015+. The US markets are offering negative cuse but we made a decent advance to stay above 5092 level. But the bulls as stated earlier may yield to bear pressure as it looks on the charts. The metal sector especially the ferrous now at cross roads will find its way for next major move. As such there was no major deviation from the yesterdays levels but the DLF and HDIL are looking South, may loose 3-5% if DLF fails to trade above 316 and HDIL above 314.
The IT majors may find few takers than the offerings due to the sustained rally from the budget it gained. So the Wipro will be weak below 700 and TCS below 765 levels.
The markets likely to get pressure from RIL if it fails to trade above 1026 level and the makets fails to trade above 5123-26 level, then the metals and reality bite the dust and the banks bull unwindening will trigger sharper correction than anticipated. If the markets gets good support at the current closing level the DLF, HDIL,Tatasteel and sesa goa will catchup along with RIL and ONGC. The TataMotors, stake sale by Daimler effect can be traced once the stock trades below 765 and it will pull down the MM and other automajors.

The Bull Run is...but …????

The markets are in Bull grip but the steam is getting over as the developments over the budget bets are unfolding.
The major Nifty weitage stocks made the yearly highs especially the counters that triggered the current rally like Banks, IT majors, automobiles, cements and to some extent metals.
The serious drawback so far is the lack luster participation from the energy/oil sector majors, be it Reliance, ONGC, CAIRN,NTPC, Tatapower and the sideways movement in Bharti, RCOM and DLF also holding a cap on Nifty at 5135-40 level.
The favourable news like Nifty getting listed and the US futures getting listed in NSE may give some boost to overall market for sure.The strengthening of dollar can put value edition to the ITs and pharma but seriously impact the crude importers.

• The Nifty levels are in positive territory so long it trades above 5090 and gain strength above 5126 level. The RIL is pulled out of the deep sinking position but not out of woods unless it trades above1020-22 level, the positional carriers can hold the stock upto 993-95 level.
• Incase RIL fails to trade above 1036 in couple of days, it is heading south to touch 850 first and next 801-806 level.
• The Nifty has reasonable support below 100 points to todays closing. The TataMotors, Tatasteel, Jindal steel, Ster and ONGC are becoming weak as of now. The steel output and the usage figures fillup some positive feel shall keep the TataSteel above 620 levels to avert the said damage. 
• TataSteel is weak below 609 and good above 618, SBI is good above 2040 weak below 2020, ICICI is weak below 915 good above 925, RIL is weak below 1002 good above 1018, ONGC is weak below 1093-95 good above 1105, Ster is good above 816-20 weak below 801-798 level for this day. 
• The territory fight from bulls will be over if the Nifty trades below 5103 level and bulls gain strength only when it absorbs the gains from the Budget run at lower level.

BUDGET “OUT” –BUDGET

Please consider this is to buget out your self to tune in line with the actual budget placed by our FM. These suggestions carry very less importance as the actual budget be out by 12 noon today.

The major economic concerns now India is facing- FISCAL deficit, which is quite high. The main reason is the populist measures adopted for the last 3 years and accumilated pressure from the recent recession in the world economy, mainly from US. As we are partly celebrating the global recessionary impact, forced us to accept to stimulate the slowing down economy by pumping extra unbudgeted money into the system to float above the much debated rate of growth above 7.5-8%.
Now we are propelling our growth above the normal claims in numbers but the inflation is eating the savings. So there is no big joy to FIIs or to make call for FDIs to huge gains for the investments, so is our stock markets, performing to the tunes, is no special event at all. The inflation cutting measure may tighten the fund availability that may effect the sentiment in the stock marke as well.
With this backdrop, the FM will decide the allocation with concerns from the economists,

Socialists. The populist welfare measures as the key driving force for all the Governments, a model now globally accepted. The share sale of PSUs will be made to adjust the fiscal deficit. This will encourage some favours to some sectors and withdrawl of stimulus impacts many.
The funds allocation: as usual the defence sector will get the lions share. The Govt. will allow more private participation in defence projects. The eduction sector will open to foreign universiities. The agriculture sector will get the boost with subsidy to micro nutrients. The rural employment schemes will get 50% more hike and rural infra focus will be more. The health care will get good boost so is the corporate hospitals and pharma. The insurance sector will get good boost.
The FM very likely to reduce the surcharge on equity transactions and on corporate tax. The anomility existing to DIIs and FII s will be levelled. The implementation of the GST will be announced, may be by next fiscal. The customs duty will be increased on imported raw materials like MEG ect that benefit Reliance. The stimulus package will be continued to Textile sector.

The excise duty will be increased on tobaco products. The excise duty will be increase on small cars and diesel cars. The oil and Gas secor will attarct more taxes. The steel sector excise duty likely to be increased.
The Govt may allow cheaper raw material to boost the steel and cement sectors by reducing duties on coke and scrap. There could be increase of fund availability to roads, seaports-and airports. There will be a clear message on boosting the housing sector, especially for poor. The banking sector will get boost to raise capital to gear up for mega expansions of Indian corporate sector, may allow to raise foreign caiptal easily.
The customs duty will be levied on power equipment and bulk drugs especially Pencilin-G imports. The govt may allow duty free imports for 3-G equipments and wimax. The announce ment on e-governanace and UID will boost the IT companys and telecos.
On over all pro-poor, rural demand driven, market nutral slightly positive biased budget is expected.

The threats and the opportunies perceived are:
Automobile sector get effected. Banking sector will get boost, cement nutral, construction-infra- the support continues, Housing good boost, compuer education-good, the IT demand creation locally but attract more taxes, durables attract taxes, engineering sector attarct taxes/neutral, Banking and financials- boost, breverages- attract taxes, Pharma- boost to research and hopitals boost, Textiles boost to cootton but not to synthetic, teleco-demand boost, shipping boost, Agro products-retail mall culture- attract taxes, agro inputs –boost, Power-neutral petrol and gas- negative, subsidies will be reduced –good to ODC, renewable enegry will get very good boost, nuclear power kick start, fertisers –good.entertaiment attract taxes so is IPL.

Now the markets will have something to give response to budget. The Nifty above 4885-4915level will take to 5240-50 level and then to 5480+. The ICICI has to trade above 835 levels,Bharti has to trade above 298, Reliance above 1020, DLF above309. The markets are now dependant on the budgetary supports and the cut in corporate tax can trigger the Bull Run. Incase the sentiment get hurt Nifty trades below 4800-4760 the go to first 4500-4530 or even lower to 4360-80 level is not ruled out. But as of now bulls are better positioned and will in short term.

Correction OVER ???? or OVER correction !!!!!!!!!

The regular readers do understand that the markets corrected more than anticipated, trading even below the expected 4900 level which has now become a strong resistance to scale up. The FII are engrossing the profits made all these days in sectors that affect the most in future like banking, motors, pharma and refinery sectors that out performed and they rule the Nifty anyway.

The economy is heading for a testing time with out the stimulus package. The US economy is going to do well as the world is now recognized the social sector spending for a sustainable dignity of life. So the spending in health care and the alternative energy will through big opportunity to us.

We are now focusing on infrastructure building hand in hand with social sector spending through NREGS and other rural economy spending. The coming budget will be more rural infra and farm spending which proved a big success to our economy. So no more cuts to corporate facilities or no more favours to corporate demands. The bulging fiscal deficit will be addressed through sale of PSUs and the governing is doing business for long time. So it will help the markets to float above these levels for some time.
The concern in food inflation now crack the foundations of the markets due to more stringent actions to controle the money circulation and inflationary rise no longer desirable to emerging markets. As a whole, the markets may not have pre-budget rally due the local and the global concerns.

The deep cut is not over for the markets so long it trades below the 4830 level. The bulls were captivated in the lower band of 4950 and 4830 level. The strong cues needed to pierce the resistance to release the market from the bear grip.
The big boy Reliance has suddenly dropped its strength to move up once it dropped below 1090 level (pls. read earlier postings). Now the markets will have something to offer to bulls only when the RIL trades above 1020 level and Nifty above 4885 level. The ICICI has to trade above 835 levels, a minimum of 821-25 is required. The markets are now dependant on the budgetary supports and the cut in corporate tax can trigger the Bull Run which is possible way to encourage investments for plough back method.

SHANKAR SHARMA'S VIEWS.....

The world can't have a bull run in commodities: Shankar Sharma Vivek Kaul & Sachin Mampatta / DNAThursday, February 4, 2010 3:00 IST

The big bear hates commodity bull runs because, unlike other asset classes, it impoverishes people. So they don’t last. And he continues to be bearish. The Sensex, he says, is just a two square mile phenomenon — Fort to Nariman Point. The market going up benefits 25 brokers, 200 promoters and 100 funds. Iske aage kisko fayeda ho raha hai, boss? he asks. Meet Shankar Sharma, director and chief global strategist, First Global Stock Broking. In this freewheeling interview, he spoke to DNA Money of how China is 200 years ahead of India, how India doesn’t deserve to be a Bric nation, on how the market is all about insider trading:

How do you see 2010 panning out?
Back in December 2008, my view was that in 2009 could not by any logical measure be a down-year considering that we had already lost 60% in 2008, which was unprecedented. That panned out but within that, my view always was that it was a bear-market rally and not the emergence of a new bull market and I’ll still pretty much maintain that view till I find evidence to the contrary.
But what about 2010?
My view has been that we will see a market in the first half which will be quite ugly. The first half would be a down-half and the second would be an up-half but by and large, for the year, we may not see much of a huge swing as opposed to 2007, 2008 and 2009, which have been very huge by way of volatility. I doubt if this year will be as violent as the years past because volatility cannot continue with the same intensity perennially.
What about the impact of FII flows?
I don’t believe that money flows have anything to do with the market. So I don’t subscribe to that theory that flows determine where the markets go. The rationalist in me, the mathematician in me, tells me only one thing — that dollar in is always equal to dollar out. There can never be new money coming into the market, it is arithmetically impossible.
So we chose to focus on the side of the equation that supports the market move. If the markets rally and the FIIs bought stocks worth a thousand crores, we kind of work in reverse and say that because they bought the market went up.
I say what about the guys who sold a thousand crores? For FIIs to have bought a thousand crores, somebody sold a thousand crores.
So how come we are not focusing on that side of the equation?
Because that’s not comfortable. We like to see easy patterns in things, that’s the way the human mind is. Sometimes patterns are easy and they sort of lull us into … Five days on which the FIIs bought, the markets went up so we kind of assume that that is the pattern. If you drill down, there is no pattern at all. The mind wants to seek a pattern in things that show no patterns at all. That’s the way the human mind works. We like easy theories, we like things we can tell our children. And I always say that if this was that simple, then my daughter, who is five, can be an analyst. If all that matters is that money came in, markets went up, and money went out, markets went down, then why do we need people who are educated. Then why do we need people who are educated for a pretty childish thing to analyse? Anybody can analyse it.
No flows can determine where the market is going. It’s irrelevant. The market does not know the identity of the buyer or the seller. A dollar in is equal to a dollar out. And a dollar in, irrespective of where it comes from, has the same monetary effect on the market. I can’t say that just because a foreigner is buying stock, I have to attach $1.5 of value to a $1 investment. That’s all bullshit. That’s all nice talk that people begin to talk, you know, over three drinks…
Ultimately there is no rational basis for saying these things. But in life there are a lot of things which we kind of just believe, that’s the way it is. Rationalists always debunk these theories. I belong to that camp. I believe in a lot of nonsense also but I don’t believe this nonsense.
What is the rationalist’s view of the markets?
My views are determined by 60% technical analysis and 40% by fundamentals. Money flows don’t matter, because arithmetically money flows cannot matter. Dollar in is always equal to dollar out.
I’ll tell you where it matters. It matters in a thinly traded stock. That’s where it matters, because that guy is the market. That one guy, two guys, that cartel of people they can manipulate and take up the price of a single stock, a Z-group stock. And that happens. Even as we speak, there is some stock being manipulated, that’s possible. But I am not talking about a stock, I am talking aggregate, macro, a big market. A large, liquid well-traded market. And by category emerging markets, by category global equity markets, its not possible yaar. ...............AND MUCH MORE..........

I pay much attention towards my Ph.D., hopefully on market sensitivity, econmic liberalisation and market capitalisation. So I try to publish atleast twice in a week. I hope my ardent followers appreciate.

Surprise ....always.....

The quarter on quarter is not good but otherwise the ONGC performance is good. The huge investments resulted an increase of depreciation from 2860cr to 4875cs for this quarter under review and the volume catch up as the sales increased from 12436 to 15314 cr. The net profit increased from 3362 cr to 4626 crs.

The JSW steel, SASKEN presented stellar performance but IDEA disappointed by the competition. The ICICI retail banking is bleeding by 230 cr loss where as the wholesale banking and the treasury operations are very profitable, the same is the story of the YES bank. The ICICI total income is at 7763 down from 10,350 crs. There is saving on the Tax- 135cr and interest expended-1800crs. The net profit plunged from 1272cr to 1101 crs. The Stock likely to go sub 750 level.

The markets as expected lost the bottoms, plunged by 2.2%, a surprise to many by our readers noticed the developments earlier. The RIL results are expected better in line with ONGC but the polyster business needs to be observed.

The markets may get support for a temporary bounce expected from 5040 level. The melt down fro telecos and auto and Pharma will put weight/cap on the up site for sure.

The run for supports.....on ??

Waiting ..waiting .....???

The Nifty could hold above the support level of 4180-5200 due to the IT heavy weights rotation, the propping from banking and telecos, but the Reliance once again at the cross roads at 1077, ONGC closed at 1196. The recent coal gasification project in Orissa add value to Tatasteel apart from the good expected results from the steel sector in the coming quarters due the price revisions.


In case the market fails to close above 5240 tomorrow and high doesn’t cross the resistance at 5270, there is a steep correction in the offing that could drag the indices to 4900 level irrespective the corporate results. The market operators are steadily off loading their holdings at higher level is a concern. In case the Bharti, ICICI bank and Tata steel fails to get support from these levels can be considered as a bad omen to Nifty it self.

Those whose are personally accessible to me know that I recommended to buy all cotton and textile stocks in Nov- second week, precise on 12th Nov-09. Now all the stocks be it Surya Lakshmi Cotton mills, Digjam, BSL etc all are doubled. Those who can build positions for a longer period can accumulate the Infra companies for a 5 year period for decent returns-multibaggers.

For now, incase Reliance fails to trade above 1106-09, ONGC has to cross 1205-08, ICICI has to trade above 893 can consider that the markets are heading for Southwards. The banking lot is the weakest link apart from profit booking in IT counters.

The recent run-ups in the counters of cement, IT scan find some more profit taking. The counters like Grasim may get 1st support at 2635-40 but good support and bounce can be expected at 2570.

The Infra stocks are sold out despite good results from JP is due to rise in the input costs and fear ruling in the rumors of Govt. stimulus withdrawal due to high inflation. But they are the one that will catch once the market rebounds.

The levels broken .....

The Nifty levels were not breached drastically yet but the levels of the leaders were broken seriously in FMCG, banking, …except the IT.

The ONGC though looks good, in the bull grip failed to scale up from the previous day support above 1220, but retraced to 1210 a circle juncture on Friday. The story is no different to Reliance, which expected to stay above 1125 but staggering at 1110-1105.

The Nifty is good above 5240 but now it has to trade above 5265-70 level to get the real strength and short covering of Bears above 5280 to scale to 5500 level. As of now the Nifty is in a range but likely to travel towards 5140 level or even lower due to the global meltdown and feeling heavy to cross the resistance due to lack of positive triggers.

The tech giants are giving good support to Nifty and feel good factor of the IIP numbers and the economic out look putting positive additions to numbers but the future withdrawl of stimulus, spiraling of inflation numbers and the FII inflows make the RBI to the stringent in dealing with them can give a chance to bears to hammer down the indices.
The outflows of money from the MF above 1 lakh crores in the first week of Jan-10 shows weak faith in the market for future at least for next Sep-10. I mentioned the same in my earlier posting.

The March quarter results of the majors will be impacted by the primary rise of food prices, commodity rise and lack luster performance of industry shown by the low credit off take.
The Nifty is like to trade at 16-18 of P/E by August rather than the current 23.5

The markets will correct but not collapse as it did in 2008.

The Infy-nite- support.....

The one of the promoters of POLARIS-Orbitech sold close to 23.88 lakh shares in the said company. I earlier mentioned about the leads given by Reliance.
In SASKEN communications, the Nortel Networks reduced the holding by selling 2.68 lakh shares but still holding 7.20 percent. In BSEL Infrastructure reality limited, 500000 shares were sold by Total Bizcon solution ltd to reduce its stake by 50% to 0.605
In a press release PunjLloyd announced that it received a power plant construction order for Rs 947 crores and the total orders at hand are more than Rs 28,300 crores as of Sep-09.

The Infosys results cheered the house and given thumps up support by 3.5% rise in the stock price. The quarterly results are good under difficult recession period, but the concern is sales has declined, the selling cost is increasing and the other income increased by 5 times and tax expenses almost doubled when compared to last year. The rupee is strengthening will impact on the margins considerably in coming quarters, unless the operational efficiencies improved along with sales will dent in the net profit can change the valuations. The early signs of the bellwether made a rat race in the remaining IT stocks.
The IT company MASTEK is also failed to improve the operational profits, reduced from 22crores to 7.9 and the sales down by more than 30% when compared to a year back.

The auto sector is in zoom speed, the Bajaj Auto produced excellent results sales increased from 2004 cr to 3165 cr and net profit increased from 164 cr to 475 cr.

The early trends of sugar company profits are rocketing in line with the per Kg domestic price rise.

The EXPORT woes..

The export based survivals like and cotton are facing the heat of Rupee strengthening. The Rupee got good strength on the future outlook of the economy and the huge dollar inflow.

The IT and the BPO sector mid caps will suffer the most as they cannot match their peers. The giants are eyes the domestic business which is opening its doors, especially to the top 5 It power houses.

The markets are gaining strength in the index due to heavy import dependant oil sector majors gaining the ground for the last 10 trading days.

The RBI heavily invested the surplus of dollars in GOLD, allowed the rupee to appreciate for some extent to balance the payment obligations.

Now the market will see correction in Pharma majors Divis, CIPLA, Ranbaxy, DrReddy, Piramals, Aurobindo and export dependant infrastructure companies like Punj Llyod and LT, some extent the Indian auto companies who are exporting considerably.

The banking sector is waiting for some cues to react. The price of ICICI falls below 850 then the market will see a major correction as anticipated. The Tata steel is facing resistance at 649-52 level will touch 614-611 incase the Nifty trades below 5250 level.

As of now the only ugly duck and lamenting for Govt. support industry- the reality sector is in bull grip may be some informed action being built in.

The odd sign is that the treasury stock sale of Reliance for Rs2500 cr and the promoter offloadings are not healthy signs, stimulus exit plans in near future may welcome bitter taste.

The Nifty is still in Bull grip so long it trades above 5240 and a serious correction for 100 points is viewed with the above said (previous postings) supports cracked.

FIIs continue to buy...but

The markets are holding above 5180 can always look for a target of 5450 level, to be precise the markets are in bull grip even if the Nifty falls to a level of 4950. The Nifty is holding despite the new highs were touched. But the divergent behaviour of the Nifty stocks is not a good sign for a longer bet. The market is good for buying solong the big boy Reliance trades above 1076 level and ONGC above1205 level.

The very fact that the market is not reacting to news of Individual companies like Bharti but the poring of dollars into India has generated much interest in the market as a whole to scale to 23 month high. The big support being given by investors to the recent IPOs is a good sign, doing well in the market unlike the earlier listings.
The health care especially those are in CRAMS and biotech are being encouraged in yesterday. The reality sector majors will give good early gains for tomorrow but the market is likely to see a correction which is a healthy sign.
The DLF is good above 373 level and HDIL is good above 376 level. The Tata Motors can be shorted with a stoploss at 826 level and Tatapower may see correction to close below 1455. The metals may see some further correction generated and Sesa Goa is no exception.
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FIIs infuse Rs 24,800 cr in stock markets in December quarter--- The Economic Times covered on 3 Jan 2010 about the FII interest in Indian economic growth and in our markets
…In the quarter under review, December attracted the highest inflow of Rs 10,233.1 crore($2.1 billion), followed by October (Rs 9,077 crore) and November (5,497 crore)….

…FII investment of Rs 83,420 crore in 2009 is the highest ever inflow in the country in rupee terms in a single year and comes a year after they pulled out over Rs 50,000 crore. …The inflow in 2009 broke the previous high of Rs 71,486 crore parked by foreign fund houses in domestic equities in 2007. …Interestingly, the whopping inflow by FIIs into the local stock markets has alarmed the government and other authorities concerned….

The markets are holding above 5180 can always look for a target of 5450 level, to be precise the markets are in bull grip even if the Nifty falls to a level of 4950. The Nifty is holding despite the new highs were touched. But the divergent behaviour of the Nifty stocks is not a good sign for a longer bet. The market is good for buying solong the big boy Reliance trades above 1076 level and ONGC above1205 level.