13,000 sub-brokers have shut shop.....NO BULL RUN HERE..!!!

Friday, Nov 1, 2013, 9:19 IST | Place: Mumbai | Agency: DNA

13,000 sub-brokers have shut shop in last six months Nitin Shrivastava  After retail investors, it’s the turn of sub-brokers to go out of the market.
In the last six months while the equity market turnover has been hitting new highs, nearly a fifth of sub-brokers in the cash segment gave up their registrations as lower retail participation and higher cost of compliance and regulatory changes reduced their business to a trickle.
The number of sub-brokers fell from 69,060 as at end-June to 57,387 as at end-September this year — a drop of nearly 11,673, or 17%, according to the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) bulletin released on Wednesday,
This takes the total number of sub-brokerage closures to 12,855 in the first six months of this fiscal even as the number of broker registrations in cash segment, too, fell by 522 to 9,606 in the same period.
Experts said with retail investors almost non-existent in the recent times, the share of high yield brokerage income from equity cash segment has fallen significantly, leading to sub-broker exits.
Rakesh Goyal, senior VP at Bonanza Portfolio, said not just the broking industry, but the entire financial services domain – be it mutual funds or insurance companies — is feeling the pain.“Many people were attracted to this industry believing that Indian middle class has ample savings and earnings capacity to invest in financial products. But the fact is that middle class, which has invested in real estate, has neither the money nor risk appetite now,” he said.
While they have hit their five-year-old just now, the equity markets have remained range-bound and volatile for the last five years, leading to structural shift towards derivatives segment or positional calls.Deven Choksey, MD at KR Choksey Securities, said the markets have become more of a trader’s market with many of the retail investors, too, shifting to derivatives trading.
“The concept of buy and hold is fast disappearing and retail investors, too, are getting attracted to taking positional bets through options,” he said.
The trading volumes in the cash segment have almost halved from their peak of around Rs 27,000-28,000 crore in December 2007 to around Rs 13,000-13,500 crore in recent months.Goyal feels the high cost of regulatory compliance and other operational costs too have taken a toll on smaller sub-brokers.“The cost of transactions and bringing clients have gone up, and with the Sebi tightening the overall compliance requirements for brokers, many of them don’t find the business lucrative enough now,” he said.Choksey said apart from dwindling cash volumes, the competition from bigger banks with wide reach too has been responsible for exit of sub-brokers from the business.“The sub-brokers are unable to meet the advisory requirements of clients, and the clients also have lesser compliance issues with bigger reputed banking channel than they have with sub-brokers,” he said.Going ahead, the recent Sebi changes which gives more power to investor in case of dispute with broker may lead to more exits, believe experts.
Choksey feels that the impact of this recent “bizarre” rule may be felt with a lag effect leading to more exits.http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-13000-sub-brokers-have-shut-shop-in-last-six-months-1912148

Stocks to buy in Samvat 2070....RECOMMENDATIONS..!!!

Puneet Wadhwa  |  New Delhi  

November 1, 2013 Last Updated at 15:24 IST

Stocks to buy in Samvat 2070
List of stocks that top research houses and brokerages are advocating
Samvat 2069, which ends on November 02, has been marked by volatility given the political and economic developments. Despite the volatility and bouts of nervousness, Indian markets surged to new highs, with the S&P BSE Sensex hitting an intra-day high of 21,293.88 on Friday (01 November) in a liquidity-driven rally.
However, most experts opine that while the worst may be behind us, investors still have to be careful and need to invest with caution especially when the country is heading into an election year.
We tapped leading research houses and brokerages across the country for their stock recommendations for Samvat 2070. Here is a list of stocks that have been recommended. Happy investing!
================
Angel Broking: Wipro, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Zinc, Cipla, Tata Steel, Cadila, United Phosphorus, Aurobindo Pharma and Crompton Greaves
Aditya Birla Money: Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL), Gujarat Pipavav Port, Infosys, ITC, KPIT Technologies, M&M and YES Bank
Centrum Broking: Karur Vysya Bank, Clariant Chemicals, BASF
KR Choksey Securities: IDFC, LIC Housing Finance, Tata Motors, Adani Enterprises, State Bank of India (SBI)
Motilal Oswal Research: GRUH Finance, Bajaj Corp, Supreme Industries, United Phosphorous, Unichem Labs, Swaraj Engines, WABCO India and Berger Paints
IIFL: Cipla, Emami, HDFC Bank, Hero MotoCorp, Hindalco, Idea, Infosys, ING Vysya, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Shriram Transport Finance, Wipro
IndiaNivesh Securities: Bajaj Finance, Coal India, J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals, Mastek, Reliance Industries, BASF India, GIC Housing Finance, Jaiprakash Associates, Nesco
Prabhudas Lilladher: Infosys, Wipro, Larsen & Toubro, ING Vysya Bank, KSB Pumpshttp://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/stocks-to-buy-in-samvat-2070-113110100523_1.html

Fifty stocks that returned upto 1,634% since last Sensex peak

Fifty stocks that returned upto 1,634% since last Sensex peak
By ET Now | 1 Nov, 2013, 01.18PM IST
MUMBAI: It took the BSE benchmark Sensexover five years and nine months to make a new top. The Sensex has breached its previous all-time high of 21,206.77 made on January 08, 2008.
The recent rally on the Sensex, which pushed the index to all-time high of 21,293.88, has been on the back of strong FII flows after the US Fed said it would continue with its easy monetary policy.
The US central bank in its meeting this month reiterated its stand to continue to purchase government bonds. While there are concerns that the tapering of quantitative easing may begin in December 2013 itself, a majority of analysts expect it to start only by March 2014.
The rally of Sensex from previous high to the fresh high has been led by consumers goods, pharma, FMCG & technology stocks.
There are 10 Sensex stocks which have gained by over 100 per cent in that period.
Out of them, three stocks have gained between 200-300 per cent, one stock has surged between 300-400 per cent and another one has surged over 400 per cent.
There are eight Sensex stocks which are down by over 25 per cent.
In Sensex A group, there are 50 stocks which gained by over 100 per cent. Among them, 21 stocks have gained between 200 and 300 per cent, eight stocks surged between 300 and 400 per cent while six stocks have rallied over 400 per cent.
There are 44 stocks which lost by over 50 per cent in that period.
Following is the table of Sensex and A group companies that gave returns upto 1,634% since last all-time high:

	Close Price
	Name	31-Oct-13	10-Jan-08	% Change
1	TTK Prestige	3,313	191	1634%
2	Eicher Motors	3,893	381	921%
3	Lupin	887	118	650%
4	GlaxoSmith C H L	4,692	683	587%
5	Godrej Consumer	869	128	576%
6	Sun Pharma.Inds.	608	109	456%
7	Ipca Labs.	683	142	382%
8	Amara Raja Batt.	313	65	379%
9	M & M Financial	283	60	369%
10	Asian Paints	538	116	364%
11	Emami	497	113	342%
12	TCS	2,108	487	333%
13	Castrol India	307	74	316%
14	Berger Paints	230	56	310%
15	NestleBSE 2.26 % India	5,592	1,442	288%
16	IndusInd Bank	446	115	287%
17	Motherson Sumi	270	72	275%
18	HCL Technologies	1,093	296	269%
19	Coromandel Inter	221	60	268%
20	Bata India	914	250	265%
21	Dr Reddy's Labs	2,456	690	256%
22	Apollo Hospitals	906	259	250%
23	Titan Inds.	266	78	242%
24	Strides Arcolab	871	259	236%
25	Cadila Health.	663	197	236%
26	Shree Cement	4,430	1,330	233%
27	Mcleod Russel	273	83	230%
28	LIC HousingBSE 1.27 % Fin.	225	70	223%
29	CRISIL	1,123	350	221%
30	Dabur India	179	57	214%
31	Pidilite Inds.	288	93	211%
32	ITC	334	110	204%
33	United Breweries	925	305	203%
34	BritanniaBSE -0.21 % Inds.	939	310	203%
35	Hero Motocorp	2,077	687	202%
36	Marico	212	71	198%
37	Bajaj Fin.	1,351	476	184%
38	Shri.City Union.	1,015	375	171%
39	Colgate-Palm.	1,239	462	168%
40	Hind. Unilever	609	229	166%
41	Tata Motors	380	145	162%
42	MRF	15,763	6,630	138%
43	Havells India	739	321	130%
44	Glaxosmit Pharma	2,423	1,078	125%
45	M & M	888	402	121%
46	Aurobindo Pharma	217	99	120%
47	Oracle Fin.Serv.	3,215	1,519	112%
48	UltraTech Cem.	1,966	930	111%
49	Infosys	3,309	1,602	107%
50	Cipla	414	202	105%

Data as on 31st Oct 2013http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stocks-in-news/fifty-stocks-that-returned-upto-1634-since-last-sensex-peak/articleshow/25050708.cms

Mid-cap and Small-cap indices....40% below their historic highs!!!!!!!!!!

Deepak Korgaonkar  |  Mumbai  

October 24, 2013 Last Updated at 09:55 IST

Mid-cap, small-cap indices far away from new highs
At 0950 hours ,the BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices trading at 6,034 and 5,892 respectively are trading over 40% below their historic highs.Even as the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty are heading towards new all-time highs, the mid-cap and small-cap indices are still far away from their lifetime highs they had scaled on January 8, 2008.
Today, the Bombay Stock Exchange's (BSE) 30-share index S&P BSE Sensex crossed 21,000 mark and currently trading at 20,988 points is less than 250 points away from its historic intra-day high of 21,207 touched on January 10, 2008.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) 50-share CNX Nifty quoting nearly 125 points away from its record high of 6,357 touched on January 8, 2008. The index was trading at 6,245 at 0945 hours.
However, the BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices trading at 6,034 and 5,892 respectively are trading over 40% below their historic highs. The mid-cap index had touched a lifetime peak of 10,245.81 and the small cap touched an all-time high of 14,239.24 in January, 2008.
Data suggests that the BSE small-cap and BSE mid-cap indices have underperformed the Sensex in the recent past. So far in the current calendar year 2013, the Sensex has gained 8%, while the BSE Small-cap index has lost 20%. The BSE Mid-cap index, in the same period, is down by 15%.
The mid-cap and small-cap indices track the performance of companies with relatively smaller market capitalisation. There are total 654 stocks in the BSE mid-cap and small-cap index, which accounts nearly 18% of total BSE market capitalisation.
Among the sector classification five BSE sectoral indices – IT, Bankex, healthcare, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and auto have touched new all-time highs in the recent past.
Outside of these five sectors, the remaining six sectors have a lot more work to do before getting back to new records. Power, capital goods, metal, realty and oil and gas all hit their record highs in 2007 and 2008, and all five sectors need to rally between 60% and 900% before they see new highs. Consumer durable index trading at 5,973, a 27% lower from its record high of 8,221 touched on December last year.
The realty sector hit its all-time high in 2008 at a level of 13,848.09. With the sector currently trading at a price of 1,391, it needs to rally 896% before reaching its record high.
Meanwhile, out of 527 actively traded stocks as many as 217 stocks available at half of their market price as on January 8, 2008.
Aban Offshore, Suzlon Energy, Educomp Solutions, Unitech, Jai Corp, HDIL, IVRCL, Punj Lloyd, HCL Infosystems, BEML and Lanco Infratech are down sharply between 90-98% from their January 2008 levels.
However, around 192 stocks that recorded gain over the period, the market price of 93 stocks more-than-double during the period.
TTK Prestige, Eicher Motors, Page Industries, Hawkins Cookers, Kajaria Ceramics, Cera Sanitaryware, Ajanta Pharma, Relaxo Footwear and Symphony have seen price appreciation over six-fold. 

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/mid-cap-small-cap-indices-far-away-from-new-highs-113102400160_1.html

$1.9 trillion opportunity..... digitalisation ....

Shivani Shinde Nadhe  |  Pune  

October 22, 2013 Last Updated at 14:40 IST

Digitalisation a $1.9 trillion opportunity for tech companies: Gartner
Devices to be largest IT spenders by 2017, pushing telecom to second place There is good news for the $108 billion Indian IT industry. The traditional IT services offering related to application development and management may be shrinking, but the industry has in front of it $1.9 trillion opportunity due to the digitalisation process that will encompass every aspect of the economy globally.

The initial signs of this are evident in the way IT spends are moving away from traditional verticals. According to Gartner over the next four years devices will be the biggest segment in terms of IT spends, pushing away the current telecom segment. The Indian devices market will emerge as the largest segment of IT spend in India by 2017. Growth within this segment will be driven by the sale of mobile phones which will be amongst the fastest growing sub segments within the Indian IT industry. Mobile phone revenue will total $26 billion in 2017 and will account for 76.4 percent of device revenue and 28 percent of overall IT spend in India in the year 2017.

“Historically telecom has been the largest IT spender but this is slowly device spending is becoming the biggest spender. India too is in line with this global phenomenon,” said Partha Iyengar, distinguished analyst and Gartner India head of research. 
IT spending in India is projected to total $71.3 billion in 2014, a 5.9% increase from the $67.4 billion forecast for 2013, according to Gartner. IT services will record the strongest revenue growth at 12.1%, Software revenue will grow 10% and the telecommunication services segment that accounts for 42.1% of the Indian ICT market, is set to grow 2% in 2014.

“The digital world is here and this results in every budget being an IT budget; every company being a technology company; every business is becoming a digital leader; and every person is becoming a technology company,” said Peter Sondergaard, senior vice president at Gartner and global head of Research.  
He further added, “This is resulting in the beginning of an era: the Digital Industrial Economy. The Digital Industrial Economy will be built on the foundations of the Nexus of Forces (which includes a confluence and integration of cloud, social collaboration, mobile and information) and the Internet of Everything by combining the physical world and the virtual.” 
The telecommunications services market which includes fixed and mobile, data and voice services will continue to be the largest IT segment in India with IT spending forecast to reach $30 billion in 2014. The devices market, which includes mobile phones, PCs, tablets and printers is expected to total $23.5 billion in 2014, a 6 percent increase from 2013. IT services will record the fastest growth amongst the various segments, and it is projected to grow 13 percent to reach $11.2 billion in 2014. Software will account for $4.1 billion in revenue. 
“Mobile smart devices have taken over the technology world. By 2017, new device categories: mobile phones, tablets, and ultra-mobile PCs will represent more than 80 percent of device spending. Gartner also forecasts that by 2017, nearly half of first-time computer purchases will be a tablet. Mobile is the destination platform for all applications,” said Sondergaard. 
Mobility, cloud and social are among the top 10 Indian CIO priorities for 2013. As the Nexus of Forces gains acceptance, it will continue to drive enterprises and society toward a pervasively digital future and will drive a discussion between IT and business leaders to become more digital.

“The long term growth projections of the Indian market continue to be positive. India is still a vastly underpenetrated market and growth within smaller towns and cities will continue to provide growth for IT vendors across categories, with the consumer market and the small business segment driving this. The rising disposable income and greater consumer awareness are other factors driving the growth of the Indian IT market,” said Iyengar.
 Future of IT Suppliers
The digital world runs faster for many traditional IT suppliers. In the past, the top technology companies reigned over the industry for long periods of time. However, now the leaders in areas such as cloud and mobile were not on many CIO’s radar five years ago.

“What many traditional IT vendors sold you in the past is often not what you need for the digital future. Their channel strategy, sales force, partner ecosystem is challenged by different competitors, new buying centers, and changed customer business model,” Sondergaard said. 

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/digitalisation-a-1-9-trillion-opportunity-for-tech-companies-gartner-113102200468_1.html

MONEY STORED IN METALS...!!!!!

Jitendra Kumar Gupta  |  Mumbai  

October 22, 2013 Last Updated at 22:07 IST

More gains in store for metal stocks
While the news flow is positive, a picky approach would yield better results, say analysts, who prefer Tata Steel, Sesa Sterlite & NalcoAfter the broader indices scaled three-year highs, it was the turn of the underperformers. Last week, metal stocks were the biggest gainers, with the BSE Metal Index rising 3.4 per cent, led by Tata Steel, Sesa Sterlite, Hindustan Zinc and Hindalco. Positive news flow in the recent past has turned the Street positive on metal companies. Earlier, the postponing of quantitative easing tapering by the US Federal Reserve to early 2014 had improved sentiments as the delay meant liquidity infusion by the US central bank would continue, thereby supporting growth. The latest news comes from China, which posted better-than-expected GDP growth of 7.8 per cent for the September quarter. This is good news, given China is a large consumer of metals. However, analysts say there are more gains ahead, but investors should be selective while considering metal companies, as they see hurdles for some.
Within the metal space, the biggest gainer is Tata Steel, up 70 per cent from its lows of Rs 195 in August to Rs 338 (up 10 per cent in one week). However, analysts say the gains are more to do with stability in the European business and lower valuations. Despite the run-up, Tata Steel is trading 0.8 times its book value and six times its enterprise value to operating profits, based on FY15 estimates. The domestic steel sector though may face growth challenge as demand from construction, automobile and consumer goods could take some time to recover. In a recent note, the World Steel Association lowered India's steel demand growth estimates to 3.4 per cent in 2013 against the earlier estimates of 5.9 per cent. Analysts believe there could be pressure on the margins as a result of higher input cost and increase in freight rates. However, since Tata Steel’s domestic operations are among the low-cost steel producers globally (and fully integrated), it would stand out among Indian peers. And, with expanded capacities, it could capture market share.
In this context, Tata Steel remains the top pick of most analysts. "Tata Steel remains our preferred play in the steel space as JSW Steel continues to grapple with ore procurement issues while SAIL is struggling with its inherent structural weaknesses of high costs and inefficiency," said Ashutosh Somani, who tracks the sector at JM Financial in a note. In the case of JSW Steel, analysts have highlighted issues of lower earnings visibility because of the merger of the erstwhile Ispat (now JSW Ispat). Due to the merger, broking house IIFL expects JSW’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) a tonne to drop from Rs 7,110 in FY13 to Rs 5,998 in FY14. Both high cost operations of JSW Ispat and higher interest cost are expected to weigh on the earnings.
"We believe non-ferrous companies are structurally better placed than steel companies in terms of demand and pricing scenario in India," said Motilal Oswal Securities in a recent note. However, in the non-ferrous space, too, analysts are selective. Sesa Sterlite is preferred, as analysts expect it to benefit on an improvement in price, demand and attractive stock valuations. Recent news about working permit for its iron ore mines in Karnataka, the likelihood of Sesa purchasing remaining government stake in Hindustan Zinc and expected higher dividend from Cairn India are seen in positive light.
Positively, except aluminium, which was down marginally, recently, the London Metal Exchange price of copper and zinc has seen risen two-three per cent compared to the average price in the September quarter. If the trend continues, non-ferrous companies should earn better realisations. However, players like Hindalco may remain under pressure. "We remain negative on aluminium plays such as Hindalco, which may be further affected by the new warehouse norms," said Ashutosh Somani of JM Financial.
At the current aluminium prices, experts believe almost half the world aluminium producers are making losses. Prices are subdued due to lower consumption. During January-August, production had exceeded consumption by 1.1 million tonnes (mt) versus 0.5 mt a year ago. Though Hindalco is among the low-cost aluminium producers globally, there are some near-term concerns, say analysts.
"We have a sell rating on Hindalco owing to uncertainty on the commissioning of the captive coal blocks and muted aluminium price or premium outlook. At the current price, it factors in a high Ebitda of $720 a tonne from the enhanced domestic aluminium capacity of 1.3 mt compared to $500 a tonne in FY13 from existing domestic capacity," said Parita Ashar, who tracks the sector at Ambit Capital.
Instead, analysts prefer Nalco, competitive in terms of its cost of production and has large exposure to high-margin alumina business. They say it is sitting on huge cash, almost Rs 19 a share or 55 per cent of the  share price of Rs 35.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/more-gains-in-store-for-metal-stocks-113102200917_1.html

BE CAUTIOUS AT THE TOP.....MAY LEFT WITH PAPER...!!!!!

The Indian markets maintained pause due to the phenomenal rise by more than 135 points in its previous session kept some selling pressure at the top. The Nifty is technically very well placed above 6020 level and it may even see 5950 but it is not advisable to SELL but BUY at lower levels. There is some concern in the TOP banking stocks as un-winding is fast and little roll-over is making nervous, more seriously. Any way for now, the markets are in BULL GRIP and be with the LEADERS.

The Ambuja Cements is ripe for NEWS case in its category. The Tech stocks saw some unwinding except WIPRO which built positions before results. As I mentioned earlier, the stock may correct temporarily but has tremendous potential to cross 700 levels. The HCL tech, TCS and TechMahindra also poised for bigger growth in future.

As mentioned in my earlier postings about “STEEL has good STRENGTH” to offer money and JSW Steel will reward in this category. The big surprise is from RIL side as the stock has not built any significant positions but people prefer to offload. Whereas CAIRN will create big jump may be in Nov series and going forward. The Bharati case is even more surprising to me. I am seriously expecting some BIG news from this counter as there is some relentless unwinding is happening. The Auropharma may see some more upside may touch 250 levels easily. The other big pharma counters like Ranbaxy & SUN are good for long-term bets.