CONSTRUCTIVE INVESTMENT DECISIONS...!

CONSTRUCTIVE INVESTMENT DECISIONS

 for 

MULTI-BAGGER RETURNS!! 

NOBODY EVER LIKES TO TRADE FOR A LOSS BUT SELDOM RECOGNIZE THE INHERENT THREAT INVOLVED & THE DAMAGE THAT MAY OCCUR IN TRADING!

WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITIES & TEMPTATIONS:

TRADERS GET EVERYDAY OPPORTUNITIES TO PARTICIPATE IN DIFFERENT INSTRUMENTS AS TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH BEING TRADED ON THE EXCHANGES ACROSS THE GLOBE THROUGH VARIETY OF INSTRUMENTS LIKE DEBT, CURRENCIES, EQUITY, GOLD, CRUDE OIL AND OTHER COMMODITIES etc.

THE TEMPTATION TO BUY AT LOW WHEN MARKETS START FALLING WITH AN ANTICIPATION TO BOUNCE AND SELL IN A TRENDING HIGH MARKETS WITH AN ANTICIPATION TO FALL, ADD TO THOSE MISTAKES ADOPT "AVERAGES" AS A STRATEGY SINKS TRADERS CONFIDENCE THERE BY WEALTH EROSION & EXTINGUISH!, EXPLORE & UNDERSTAND HOW DOES EVER MARKETS OFFER PROFITS TO EVERY TRADER?.

ADOPT INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: BUY GROWTH STOCKS

MARKETS FALL NOT BECAUSE TO FALL FOR A REASON BUT ALSO TO DUMP THE LAGGARDS AND SHIFT/CHURN FUND ALLOCATION TO EMERGING SUNRISE SECTORS AND TO CATCH GROWTH STOCKS AT THEIR BEST POSSIBLE LOWER RATES FOR FUTURE THUMPING RETURNS!.

THE FIIs, DIIs & OTHER INSTITUTIONS EMPLOY TAMS TO STUDY, DEVELOP RESEARCH REPORTS FOR A SPECIFIC COMPANY OR A SECTOR IN ADVANCE, TAKE A WELL INFORMED CALL WITH ADEQUATE PREPARATION. THEY “GO FOR A DUMP” OF THE PAST LAGGARDS DURING MARKET SELL OFFS. UNFORTUNATELY, RETAIL INVESTORS WHOSE RUSTED MEMORY, TWEAKED WITH OUTDATED IDEAS TEND TO BUY THESE KICKED STOCKS, JUSTIFYING AS YESTER YEAR'S GOOD COMPANIES.

AFTER A PAINSTAKING WAITING OVER A PERIOD OF TIME MAY REALISE THAT THESE SCRIPS WERE SOLD DUE TO POOR FUTURE BUSINESS PROSPECTS TO PERFORM OR A CHANGE IN MACRO ECONOMIC COMPETITION, BUT BECOME TOO LATE AS THE PRICE SINKS TO ITS ABYSS…!!.

TRADERS PSYCHOLOGY & EGO GRATIFICATION: 

TRAINED PROFESSIONALS WHO ARE SUPPORTED BY INSTITUTIONAL BACKING & WELL ESTABLISHED NETWORKS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE BUT MOST AVERAGE RETAIL TRADERS THINK, MANY VEHEMENTLY CLAIM THAT THEY ARE MORE SMART AND INTELLIGENT THAN THE REST. THIS BEHAVIOURAL ATTITUDE ELEVATES THEIR EGO AND ENCOURAGE TO GO FOR TRADING TO MAKE “HUGE MONEY” – UNEXPLORED!!. 

RETAIL TRADERS AS WEAK HANDS, STAY LOW WITH SPECIFIC INFORMATION GET TRAPPED DUE TO EMOTIONAL TRIGGERS TO GRAB "BUY LOW- AS AN OPPORTUNITY" SHALL TRY TO UNDERSTAND BROAD MARKET ACTION BEFORE THE LEAP! 

UNFORTUNATELY, MOST RETAIL HANDS GET TRAPPED IN THIS VICIOUS CYCLE OF LOSING PROPOSITION, THOUGH THEY UNDERSTAND THE ENTANGLED DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED BUT INCLINE TO HOOK ON TO THE WHEEL DUE TO PSYCHOLOGICAL COMPULSIONS, DIFFICULTY TO ACCEPT THE HUMILIATION AND TAKE BOLD A CALL TO EXIT!.

CONCLUSION:

HYPOTHETICALLY, ALL INVESTMENTS SHALL YIELD POSITIVE RETURNS BUT NEVER HAPPENS DUE POOR SELECTION!. SO, ALWAYS INVEST IN COMPANIES AS GROWTH STOCKS TO BECOME MULTI BAGGERS OVER NEXT 4-5 Yrs, WHOSE BUSINESS SCOPE IS LARGE, ASSOCIATED & EXPAND WITH BOOM IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FOR ASSURED PROFITS TO EXCEL & LEAD IN FUTURE. 

RETAIL INVESTORS WHILE PARTICIPATE SHALL TAKE CONSTRUCTIVE INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND KEEP ON INVESTING AT REGULAR INTERVALS THAT BECOMES A "HAPPY INVESTING" BASED ON THE FUNDAMENTALS RATHER THAN MERE "TIPS OR A CHEAP SCRIP". 

WHEREAS TRADERS SHALL NEVER TRADE WITH FRUSTRATION OR VENGEANCE, ALSO WITH HIGH LEVERAGE, SHALL CONDUCT A SERIOUS STUDY OF SCRIP LEVELS TO PLAN THE TRADE & ADOPT A STRATEGY TO TRADE WITH CAUTION.

TRADERS SHALL NEVER CONVERT TRADE POSITION INTO INVESTMENT DECISIONS, ALSO NO HESITATION TO BOOK LOSS WHEN STOCK FAILED TO PERFORM IN THE ANTICIPATED DIRECTION.

TRADERS SHALL DEVELOP SHREWDNESS TO SWITCH POSITIONS AS OPPORTUNITY ARISES IN THE BROAD MARKET DIRECTION...!!! 

BUY AGAIN, BUILD RIGHT PORTFOLIO...!!!

Sell in panic, repent at leisure

By Rajiv Nagpal Feb 21 2016

Tags: Stock Market, Market Research

It is tough to stay calm amidst negative news flows, but history shows markets rebound with a vengeance

Markets are driven by three essential emotions: hope, fear and greed. It is true of any asset class. Be it debt, gold, equity or real estate, they all go through bouts of these feelings. The Indian equity market has entered a cycle of fear, it seems. What trigged the slide from hope to fear? The prime reason was the decline in broader markets and midcap stocks since the start of the new year.

On January 21, the Nifty 50 Index completed the critical 20 per cent correction, from its all-time high of 9,119 points on March 4, 2015. Soon enough, voices were heard that a bear market had started. The term “bear market” struck-like lightning and sent retail investors, especially the recent entrants, into utter panic.

They can’t be blamed. Controlling emotional response to a heavy flow of negative news is easier said than done. It is extremely tough to control fears when headlines scream with nuggets like the global economy is heading to a slowdown, China is deep in trouble, foreign investors are selling as they move out of emerging markets and skeletons are stored in the domestic banking system.

This takes us to another point. Who said that making money is an easy job? Making money was always and will always be a tough job. A major part, probably the toughest part, of investing or trading in equity involves controlling one’s emotions when it is extremely difficult to do so.

In today’s environment, it is tough not to feel negative about the equity market. After remaining robust for almost 18 months, flows to even systematic investment plans (SIPs) of mutual funds have slowed down in the past one month, an indicator that hope is giving way to fear.

Two things can help investors detach emotions from decision-making. The first is to understand the real meaning of a bear market. The second is to have a look at the new flows that came with the earlier so-called bear markets and also look at historical performance of both broader markets and indices a few years after that phase of extreme negative news flows.

Let’s understand the bear market. Essentially, a bear market is a condition where prices of certain asset classes are falling with each passing week. In the case of equities, when stock prices are falling, it is called a bear market. Normally, the first reaction of an investor would be that if it is a bear market then I should sell because prices are gonna fall more. When this thought comes in, an investor should ask himself two questions. First, do I require the fund for any alternative use, either for consumption or investment in another asset class? Second, after selling, should I buy the same stock at a lower level, if yes, at what level? If there is no clarity on why to sell the stock, prices are falling is not a reason to sell, because prices are not going to fall for all the time and could revert in a matter of time. So, if you don’t need the money, sit back and stop looking at the ticker scrolling below the television screens, so that the temptation to sell is taken care of.

Now comes the second issue of the news flows that hit the earlier bear markets. The first serious up-move in the market, with domestic and foreign investors participating, came in 1996. Soon thereafter, the Asian markets were hit by a currency crisis. The Indian economy was then seeing its first much-publicised slowdown. Sale of heavy commercial vehicles, a much-relied on gauge of the economy then, were slipping. On January 1, 1996, the Nifty was at 908. It went on to touch a high of 1,203 on June 17 and then started to slip, touching a low of 788 on December 4, before moving back and ending the year 1996 at 899.

Now technically, it was a perfect bear market, as the Nifty had surrendered all its gains of the year and formed a new low that year. Just three years later, in 1999, the Nifty was quoting at 1,505 on October 14, 1999, almost a gain of 100 per cent in three years.

This was just about the Nifty. What happened to technology and other stocks is well known. Now, in 1996, any investor who sold his stock because the Nifty had fallen to certain points or retraced to a certain technical level, suffered a huge opportunity loss three years down the line.

Similarly, in 2000, the whole world seemed to be coming to at end. Technology stocks had gone through their worst correction; the global economy was in recession; the US was hit by the worst ever attack on its soil; for India, global crude oil prices had started to move up in 2001. Probably, in 2000 and 2001, global markets were hit by negative news from all sides.

This time too, the Nifty’s moves were very similar to the earlier ones. After touching a high of 1,818 on February 23, 2000, the index slipped to a low of 1,108 points on October 19, 2000–again a bear market technically. But whoever sold then from panic was again came out as a loser, because in January 2004, the Nifty was again on the verge of an unprecedented bull run the Indian market had seen.

Similarly, in 2008, the world came to end again. The US economy slipped into a recession; commodity prices tanked; the currency market went into upheaval; and a reset happened in every asset class, right from gold to real estate. Now, whosoever sold in that panic again came out as a loser in just two years, as all losses were literally covered at the index level.

In 2013 again, the Indian economy was probably hit by the worst possible news flow; a sharp decline in stocks; a period of double-digit inflation, a high interest regime and incidents of corporate default. But just one year down the line, the index touched an all-time high and stocks made sharp gains.

Today, again the situation is the same. Everything now looks bleak, internationally and domestically. Probably, the saying “this too shall pass” was coined for the stock market. But investors should not forget one basic tenet; time can take care of the stock price of only good companies. If one had invested in Infosys at the height of the technology bull market, one would still have made money over the years. But had one invested in a company where promoters had a bad track record, the money was lost forever, never to retun.

Today, if an investor really needs to sell, he should sell in companies where promoter reputation is feeble and corporate governance is in doubt.

rajivnagpal@mydigitalfc.com

(Rajiv Nagpal is consulting editor, Financial Chronicle, and director at stockbroking firm Elan Equity)

http://www.mydigitalfc.com/stock-market/sell-panic-repent-leisure-008

FEB-series current action-23-02-16

BNR- DAILY = MARKET = PERFORMED ACTION=23-02-2015

NIFTY:  DOWN BY: (125) POINTS: 

The Nifty saw a relentless selling in Banking and other counters except the Green in Asian Paints, whereas Bank of Baroda the Top loser. The serious selling started in counters that stood out well during the 4- day moves. The Asian markets are relatively strong but the Europe opened with negative bias and the crude also fell. 

The global worries are keeping us down as well the domestic issues against the Govt and lack of Investments keeping the FIIs out of the favoured nation list for last 6-months. A serious threat to NDA in Bihar has changed the FPI view and they are pulling out money with-out any consideration.

The Budget may bring some change in the scenario as many investors hoping but forthcoming election and lack of rural demand may keep the exuberance at bay.

There are two days to go to FEB series closing, NIFTY lost (4%), 315 points down and BANK NIFTY 1350 (9.4%) down, a fall from the start of FEB-series-29-01-2016. Despite of serious selloff following some counters keeping their head above the waters. These counters like Ajantha pharma up by 57, AMARRAJA Batteries 64, Apollo Hospitals by 30, Apollo Tyres by 15 (10%), Asian Paints 17, Bajaj auto by 130 Bajaj Finance by 131, Bharati by 27 (10%), Dr Reddy by 67, Eicher Motors 3063 (17%), Godrejcp by 27, Grasim 62, Heromotors by 213, Hexaware 27, HUL 45, JSW steel 29, KSCL 39, LT 54, Lupin 67, NMDC 14 (16%), Pidilite 57 (10%), Siemens 32, SRTransport 59, SUN 38, UBL 22, VEDL 6 (8%).

But the slaughter happened in counters like WockPharma Down by 47%, JUST DIAL -34%,ORIENT 32%,BHEL-31%,SYNDICATE BANK 30%, OIL-29%, ENGINEERS INDIA 26%, HINDPETRO-23%,PNB-23%,INDIA CEM -22%, AUROPHARMA-21%,DHFL-21, CROMPTON- 22%, VOLTAS 21%, ALBK-21%,STAR 20%, ICICI-20%,INDIABULLS HSG- 20% SBI-18%, UNITECH 36%, UCO 18% CANBANK-16%, BPCL16%, ADANIENT-16%, HDIL-16%,TV-18, 16%, MARUTI-16%,TECHM- 15.5%,TATAGLOBAL 15%, TATACOMM-16%, RELCAP-14%, LICHSG-13%,RELINFRA-10%, 

HIMADRI CHEMICAL - A SURE SHOT TO DOUBLE IN A YEAR...!!

Quarterly results in brief

(Rs crore)

	Dec' 15	Sep' 15	Jun' 15	Mar' 15	Dec' 14
Sales	305.51	310.18	275.92	341.86	326.95
Operating profit	53.50	35.92	16.71	6.47	29.01
Interest	25.42	30.37	27.50	16.22	30.34
Gross profit	25.96	1.83	-14.19	-10.90	-0.19
EPS (Rs)	0.15	-0.25	-0.52	-0.41	-0.25

Himadri Chemicals & Industries Ltd, the flagship of Himadri Group, is the largest manufacturer of coal tar pitch in India. The company was founded to develop, manufacture and market chemical products with a special emphasis on coal tar and its derivatives. They supply coal tar pitch to well-known domestic aluminium and graphite industry players like Nalco, Balco, Hindalco, HEG, Graphite India and international players like Dubal, AOG, Graftech and SGL. The company is a leader in the domestic market for the supply of coal tar pitch and other by-products with around 70 percent share of the market. The company has five state-of-the-art coal tar distillation plants in India. The company has two plants in Howrah, West Bengal, one in Hooghly, West Bengal, one in Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh and one in Korba, Chhattisgarh. Himadri Chemicals & Industries Ltd was incorporated as a private limited company in July 1987. In November 1991, the company was converted into a public limited company. In the year 1996, the company developed a technology for producing impregnating pitch and in the year 1997, they completed the expansion and modernization of their Howrah and Visakhapatnam plant. In the year 1999, the company set up third state of art coal tar distillation plant at Howrah. In the year 2001, they formed the corrosion protection division and starts manufacturing coal tar based pipe coating product at Visakhapatnam. In the year 2002, they introduced Liquid Pitch, which are supplied to the consumers in specialized and dedicated tankers. In the year 2003, the company set up their fourth modernized coal tar distillation plant at Hooghly with capacity to produce 1,20,000 MT of Coal Tar Pitch per annum. During the year 2005-06, the company commissioned a by-product plant in Hooghly for the manufacture of value added products. They also commissioned a pilot plant for the manufacture of advanced carbon material used in lithium ion batteries with in-house technology.  The company expanded the production capacity of the coal tar pitch at Hooghly form 28700 MTPA to 63700 MTPA. The company commenced the supply of coal tar pitch to Dubai Aluminium co, manufacturer of the highest purity aluminium in the world. They also commenced a representative office in China. During the year 2006-07, the company incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary in Hong Kong to manage their customer presence and facilitate the acquisition strategy. They set up a plant at Korba in Chhattisgarh as a precursor. They commissioned two windmills, which can generate 2.50 MW wind energy in the Dhule district of Maharashtra. In the same year, the company completed the first phase of expansion at Mahistikry, West Bengal to manufacture naphthalene. Also, they installed a granulation unit used for cooling coal tar pitch from more than 300 degrees centigrade to atmospheric for onward conversion into solid pencil form. The company expanded the coal tar distillation capacity in Hooghly from 91000 MTPA to 170000 MTPA. During the year 2007-08, the company commissioned their melting plant in Korba plants to build dedicated melting facilities near major customers' plant to accelerate just-in-time delivery.  The company has undertaken a project at Mahistikry in West Bengal for the manufacture of Carbon Black with an annual capacity of 50000 MT and a capitive power plant of 12 MW capacity based on waste heat gas through forward integration. In September 2008, the company through their wholly owned subsidiary company, Himadri Global Investment Ltd entered into a joint venture contract, with Chinese company to takeover existing coal tar distillation plant in Xiaoyi, Shanxi.

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http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-02-06/news/31030975_1_capacity-expansion-himadri-chemicals-tonne-capacity
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http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-07-01/news/29726284_1_organic-growth-capacity-expansion-expansion-plans

=====
THANKS TO BS, REDIFF,ICHARTS AND ET FOR THEIR INFO SUPPORT.....

HUGE PROJECT PLANS...!!!

1. Home
2. Budget-2016
3. Budget 2016: 304 plans worth Rs 12,75,877 crore stuck; stalled projects continue to haunt policymakers

Budget 2016: 304 plans worth Rs 12,75,877 crore stuck; stalled projects continue to haunt policymakersTop 100 delayed projects, mostly in power, steel, railways and petroleum sectors, account for investments worth Rs 10,41,281 croreBy: George Mathew | Mumbai | February 20, 2016 8:36 AM

Led by the Prime Minister’s pet project, GIFT City, as many as 304 projects involving an investment of Rs 12,75,877 crore remain stalled with the Project Management Group (PMG) of the PM’s Cabinet Secretariat as on February 1, 2016. While this is close to 33 per cent lower than the figure released by the PMG in March 2015, new projects are being added to the stalled list on a quarterly basis.

According to latest information available from the Project Monitoring Group, top 100 stalled projects — mostly in the power, steel, railways and petroleum sectors — account for the lion’s share of investments at Rs 10,41,281 crore.

In an RTI reply dated February 5, 2016, the PMG said 149 stalled projects involving an investment of Rs 520,265 crore were resolved between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2015. “Once projects/ issues are accepted for consideration by the PMG, tripartite meetings are arranged including the project proponents also until decisions are taken on the issues by the concerned authority,” the PMG said.

The government had informed Parliament on July 30, 2015 that 315 stalled projects entailing an investment of Rs 13.33 lakh crore are being handled by the Project Monitoring Group for speedy resolution of bottlenecks. Significantly, a Ministry of Finance note issued in March 2015 indicated, quoting PMG figures, that 299 mega projects involving an outlay of Rs 18.13 lakh crore remained stalled with the Project Management Group.

“Stalled projects were at a 30-quarter low as of December 2015. In fact, stalled projects derailed India’s growth story. There’s improvement now,” said Arun Singh, senior economist, Dun & Bradstreet. While stalled projects for the quarter ended March 2015 were Rs 108,535 crore, the figures came down to Rs 82,188 crore for June 2015 but went up to Rs 115,757 crore in September. This has come down to Rs 21,693 crore in December. “We will have to wait and watch for another six months to see if the situation improves,” Singh said.

The RBI had expressed concern over the recent rise in stalled projects. While speaking to the media after unveiling the monetary policy on February 2, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said, “if you look at data, it looks like it was coming down steadily. What has happened in the last couple of quarters… it seems to have started picking up once again. That’s a source of concern because the steady improvement that was seen seems to be just moderating. The government is taking measures to reduce the stalled projects. Hopefully we will see these come down once again.”

The Rs 78,000 crore GIFT City (Gujarat International Finance Tec-City) was proposed as a global financial hub when Narendra Modi was the Chief Minister of Gujarat. “GIFT City is not a stalled project… is on fast-track mode of development with ready and operational state-of-the-art infrastructure facilities. GIFT City is already operational with some of the leading financial services and IT companies carrying out their various operations. IFSC at GIFT City is also operational with few of banks already doing various offshore business transactions,” GIFT City said in an emailed statement.

Similarly, two mega railway projects, Western Dedicated Freight Corridor and Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor projects entailing investments of Rs 47,000 crore and Rs 30,357 crore respectively, are stuck as per PMG data.

Apart from the delay in environmental or other necessary clearances, lower nominal GDP growth, substantially higher real  interest rates, and costlier servicing of  external debt also affected many of these projects. The absence of long-term financing instruments is a major impediment in developing infrastructure projects in India, leading to stalling of projects and lack of enough developers.

http://www.financialexpress.com/article/budget-2016/304-plans-worth-rs-1275877-crore-stuck-stalled-projects-continue-to-haunt-policymakers/214024/ ==== NOW GOVT IS WORKING HARD TO ENGAGE CORPORATE HOUSES TO IMPLEMENT, APART FROM PUBLIC SPENDING. SO NEXT TWO YEARS INDIA GDP ECONOMY GROWTH AND MONEY CIRCULATION WILL IMPROVE  TO PROSPERITY.

NHAI plans 50,000 km road projects....about Rs 17 lakh crore!!

Feb 17, 2016, 09.39 PM | Source: PTI NHAI plans 50,000 km road projects worth $250 bn in six years Raghav Chandra said NHAI has already started work on preparing a detailed report on 7,000 km of road projects.

National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) plans to add around 50,000 km of road network in the next five to six years with an investment potential of nearly USD 250 billion (about Rs 17 lakh crore). "We have identified around 50,000 km of road projects, which can be done over the next 5-6 years. These projects will have an investment potential of USD 250 billion," NHAI Chairman Raghav Chandra said addressing a seminar on roads sector at the Make in India Week here today. 

Raghav Chandra said NHAI has already started work on preparing a detailed report on 7,000 km of road projects. "I am confident that NHAI alone will be able to take up 25,000 km of road projects in the next five years through its various programs like Bharat Mala, National Highways Development Project, Seth Bharatam Pariyojana and District Connectivity," he said. Chandra also called upon the private sector to assist the government in achieving the target. "We want the private sector to partner us to achieve this target. It is a stupendous job and private partnership is critical. We want private sector assistance not only for funding but also to bring in new technology and innovation in design and also their competency in management of these roads," he said. Currently, nearly 240 projects are under various stages of implementation, he said. Chandra further said the government has taken various decisions to revive the sector and resolve the issues of the private sector. "The most critical issue of land has now been addressed by the government. It has now been decided that 80 percent of the land should be available with the authority before awarding the project. This is a very critical issue and will be a game-changer for the sector," he said. 

Chandra informed that this year alone the authority has acquired 9,000 hectares of land worth Rs 20,000 crore. "We are committed to undertake any mechanism to ensure we get more investment from the private sector. The introduction of hybrid annuity scheme, exit policy for build-operate- transfer developers, among others, are some of the measures taken by the government to resolve issues of the private sector," he said. He also said the government has addressed around 40-50 BOT projects. "There are nearly 14-15 projects where there are still some differences and we are confident of resolving them or take some decision where we can help them in any possible way," he said. 

The government is planning to create an equity fund to ease equity-related problems of private developers, he said. "We are also encouraging Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs) and other ways for incentivise the roads sector," Chandra said, adding that the government has also tied up with National Payment Corporation of India for electronic tolling.
Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/nhai-plans-50000-km-road-projects-worth-36250-bnsix-years_5522821.html?utm_source=ref_article

=====THE FUTURE CEMENT DEMAND WILL ENHANCE THE STOCK VALUES BY 200-300% IN NEXT 2-3 YRs TIME.======

BEAR NOW DOMINATED, WAIT FOR THE TURN..!!

Is the market caught in an 8-year bear cycle?

LOKESHWARRI SK

Since 1992 the Sensex has lost over 50% at this interval
February 12, 2016: 
 
The 800-point fall in the Sensex on Thursday has shaken the confidence of investors and the question that everyone is asking is: are our markets caught in a bear market?
As a thumb rule, a bear market occurs when major stock indices lose more than 20 per cent from their peaks and the fall lasts more than two months. Going by this definition, the Sensex is certainly in a bear market as it is currently down 23 per cent from the March 2015 peak and the decline has now lasted 11 months.
From Big Bull times
An analysis of the structural up and down cycles in the Sensex suggests that every eighth year, the benchmark has declined more than 50 per cent. This trend is evident since 1992. The Sensex fell 56 per cent then, after the excesses of the previous bull run driven by Harshad Mehta. Eight years later, in 2000, there was a 58 per cent crash in the Sensex, when the dot-com bubble burst. In 2008, the sub-prime crisis caused a market meltdown that dragged the Sensex 62 per cent lower in one of the most intense sell-offs in recent times.
The year 2016 is the next in the ongoing eight-year cycle for bear 
markets, and the Sensex is already 23 per cent down from the peak.
How much farther?
If we look at the past bull and bear cycles in the Sensex, bear markets could be of two kinds. One where the decline in prices is not too steep but the market moves sideways for an extended period without yielding any gains. For instance, between November 1988 and March 1990, the Sensex lost only 15 per cent. But the market just continued in a trading band for 16 months. A similar movement was observed between November 2010 and December 2011, when the loss in the Sensex was only 28 per cent.
The second type of bear market is more vicious and can cause a decline of more than 50 per cent from the peak. Such declines, however, take a shorter time to complete. For instance, the 2008 bear market took just 13 months to end. The 1992 fall was completed in 12 months, and the Sensex declined 56 per cent in this period.
It is too soon to assume that we are into a deep correction. The structural upmove in the Sensex will not be impacted as long as the decline halts at 30 per cent correction from the peak; this occurs at the 21,016 level. The sharp and short correction in 2004 dragged the Sensex down 32 per cent, but the recovery was swift. Similar was the case in 2006, when the decline halted after a 30 per cent fall from the peak. In other words, the situation can still be salvaged if the Sensex forms a bottom above 21,000.
Global phenomenon
The Sensex is not alone in bear grip. Many other global benchmarks have also been dragged lower over the past two years, losing more than 20 per cent from their peaks. The Shanghai Composite Index that is at the epicentre of the ongoing crash is firmly in bear grip, having lost 53 per cent from its June 2015 peak.
European indices such as the CAC and the DAX are also down more than 20 per cent since last March. US benchmarks are among the most resilient with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 down only 12-13 per cent since last March.
(This article was published on February 12, 2016)
====

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/stock-markets/is-the-market-caught-in-an-8year-bear-cycle/article8229431.ece?homepage=true

FDI in Infra will change the Landscape!!

Japan agrees to fund Rs 17,750-cr Mumbai trans-harbour link

Cost goes up as Japan wants two rescue lanes, more steel added to project

Sanjay Jog  |  Mumbai February 14, 2016 Last Updated at 10:40 IST

 

11314

Bridge would reduce travel time between Mumbai and Navi Mumbai drastically

• ALSO READ

  EAC sets deadline for Mumbai Harbour LinkExpert panel lays fresh conditions for Mumbai Trans Harbour Link projectJICA to start consultation for funding of Mumbai MetroJICA to start public consultation for Mumbai Metro fundingPreparations for Make In India event at BKC in full swing

Maharashtra government and Japan have finalised an agreement under which the Japanese will fund 80% of the Rs 17,750 crore trans-harbour project connecting Mumbai and Navi Mumbai and two more lanes into the six-lane project.

Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Japan International Cooperation Agency agreed at the Make-In India event on Saturday that the project will add two rescue lanes and convert 4 km stretch of the project into steel-only structure instead of earlier plan of cement and concrete bridge. Conversion to steel will add Rs 4,000 crore more to project but help the project to complete early.

Calling of bids for the project will now start as early as March and by October the project will be awarded to construction companies on cash contract basis. Of the Rs 17,750 crore, JICA will give a loan of Rs 15,000 crore at  a very low interest rate. The rest of the project will be funded by local government.

The 22-km project is a road link meant to ease congestion and reduce pollution in the city. The Maharashtra government wants to complete the crucial link by 2019.

The project has already received the environment clearance and once finished would be the biggest road bridge over sea in India. The EAC has asked the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) to strictly implement a Rs 335-crore environment management plan comprising 15 components including environment monitoring during construction, compensatory mangrove restoration, installation of noise barriers, and mitigation of marine water.

The MMRDA had earlier assured the environment ministry that funding would not be a constraint for any mitigation measures proposed by the Bombay Natural History Society as environment issues would be given top priority.

EAC said the project implementation should be carried out in accordance with the provisions of CRZ Notification, 2011 without affecting the coastal ecology of the area including flora and fauna. This apart, MMRDA has been asked to obtain all permissions from the authorities concerned prior to commencement of the project and observe all safety requirements onshore and offshore.

It would be binding on MMRDA to compensate the loss of mangroves by plantation of five times the mangroves destroyed during construction.

===================

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/japan-agrees-to-fund-rs-17-750-cr-mumbai-trans-harbour-link-116021400108_1.html

===more infra works will make india a bright spot for investments from FDI route and more harbour buildings on the cards see a great demand for cement and iron apart from smart cities.===

HOW TO DEAL STOCK MARKETS...

NAGESWARA RAO BAMMIDI

CFO-MIHIR MOBILE SOLUTIONS, bnr789@gmail.com

HOW TO DEAL STOCK MARKETS- BRIGHT FUTURE AHEAD..!!

ALL MARKET PARTICIPANTS KNOW THAT THE PROFITS FROM STOCK MARKETS ARE THE DEALS MADE FOR A DIFFERENTIAL AMOUNT REALIZED FROMBUY & SELL or SELL & BUY...!!! 

FOR DECENT PROFITS "BUY LOW and SELL HIGH" - GLOBALLY ACCEPTED and WELL ACKNOWLEDGED ADAGE IN STOCK MARKETS ....

MANY EXPECT, GET THEMSELVES PREPARED BUT MOST RETAIL INVESTORS HATE BUT SURPRISES ARE VERY COMMON IN STOCK MARKETS. THE WELL INFORMED FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, NETWORK ESTABLISHED INSTITUTIONS, SEASONED HNIs, OF-COURSE BACKED WITH DEEP POCKETS, TEND TO ACT PROMPTLY WITH RIGHT DECISIONS AND MANAGE  GLOBAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS WITH THEIR NETWORKS AND EXPERTISE! TO ENHANCE THE  SPROUTING EUPHORIA OR ENLARGE PANIC SITUATIONS TO CREATE MORE TURBULENCE AS THE CASE MAY BE, AND FINALLY MAKE PROFITS FROM THE MARKETS...!!, BUT HOW MANY RETAIL INVESTORS AND PARTICIPANTS GET THESE ADVANTAGES??..

FEAR & GREED RULES:

THE SERIOUS SELL OFF FROM HIGHS IS A GREAT CONCERN TO MANY RETAIL INVESTORS WHO TEND TO HAVE THE TEMPTATIONS TO CATCH THE SHOOTING STOCKS AT THE HIGHS WITH OUT FUNDAMENTAL VALUE AND PRAY FOR THEIR SUCCESS AS THE RISK IS HIGH. ALTHOUGH, KNOW THAT THE MARKETS WENT UP SUBSTANTIALLY BUT GREED EARN AND TO ACT SMART TEND TO BUY, WAIT FOR THE "OTHER FOOL"

COMMON MISTAKES: WHEN MARKETS TOOK A SERIOUS BEATING, AGAIN RETAIL INVESTORS WITH FEAR OF FURTHER LOSS TEND TO SELL AT THE BOTTOM WITH AN INTENTION TO CATCH THE STOCK AGAIN AT THE LOWER LEVEL, BUT FAIL TO GARNER THE OPPORTUNITY, AGAIN A SIMILAR MISTAKE AS THEY DID AT THE HIGH POINTS.

JUST TECHNICALS:  STUDY THE SCENARIOS DEVELOPED OVER A PERIOD OF TIME...

FROM LOW TO HIGH, MADE A JOURNEY OF 4000 POINTS SINCE AUG-13,NFTY LIKELY TO GET SUPPORT AT 6500-6550 LEVELS. 

NIFTY TOOK A DECENT JOURNEY FROM 5100 LEVELS TO 9100 LEVELS IN TWO YEARS AND EVERY BODY MADE A WISH FOR FURTHER HIGHS WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION AT ANY LEVELS. THE NEW GOVT.  FORMATION TRIGGERED HIGH EXPECTATIONS, WERE SOLD TO RETAIL INVESTORS AND NOW EXPERTS SAY THAT NO MAGIC WAND AVAILABLE TO CHANGE THE ECONOMY IN A DAY OR TWO WHEN GLOBALLY WELL CONNECTED AND INTER DEPENDENT....

CONCLUSION: THE FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSTS/INVESTORS GRAB THESE KINDS OF SELLOFFS TO BUY AND HOLD FOR A REASONABLE TIME  AS THE VALUATIONS MATCH THEIR EARNING.

THOSE WHO STUDY THE FRACTALS, WAVES OR FIBONACCI CAN EASILY CALCULATE THE NEXT MOVE.....

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