“Conspiracy”

“Conspiracy”-be it on Anil or by Saimira. The ADAG group alleges that the ill-eyed, dark hearted people jealous of the group’s progress plans to kill him. The Citi sleeps are not but the CEO Pandit lost his sleep on the plans of removal from the top post. The SEBI came out with a stringent action against the peopled involved in price manupulation by forged letters of open offer by the promoters, broker and the media persons involved in Saimira episode.

The govt. expects 40 billion dollar FDI and the growth rate above 7-8% will be visible in the second half. The Results of Cipla are good to digest where the Ranbaxy swallowed a bitter pill and hard to digest as the losses are mounting quarter on quarter. The surprise was the decline in profits of Maruti and it expects the future is not rosy.

The Major results today are from ICICI bank, Balrampur chinni, Triveni engg, Petronet Lng and other smaller companies. The Sunday poised for software company results- Mind tree, Nucleus soft and R-system to announce their results.

Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
The Following scrips covered in my morning posting:
Nifty 3491.35 3402.90 3480.75
ICICIBANK 439.40 415.10 434.10
RIL 1802.00 1727.00 1788.85
REL infra 747.00 703.40 740.50
Rel Cap 563.00 530.35 557.65
I may be right or wrong-"No argument with the ticker- NEVER".

The crucial support…..

The markets took support to bounce back from the day’s lows to close at day’s high is a clear bullish sign. The results of RIL and other major companies results shall be discounted at current levels is debatable. The internal demand for infra structure, construction and related activities were grossly stalled for want of Govt direction and the 3-G auction and other related policy decisions were put on hold will see light after the new budget. The list can be enlarged but the fact is that they store potential for sustained growth by meeting the internal demand.

The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.

The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.

The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.

For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.

Today BEL, CIPLA,IDBI, Ranbaxy, Maruti will announce their numbers.

Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: The Following scrips covered in my morning posting:
Nifty 3439.90 3310.5 3423.70
ICICIBANK 431.60 395.10 424.40
RIL 1774.90 1696 1763.70
REL infra 716.65 662.10 712.35
Rel Cap 535.60 496.05 531.80
DLF 240.7 222.40 238.05
HDIL 147.25 124.15 144.85
HDFCBANK 1100 1065.40 1092.50
T.STEEL 266.35 238.65 262.85
SAIL 116.40 106.50 115.10
I may be right or wrong-“No argument with the ticker-NEVER”

The crucial support…..

The markets took support to bounce back from the day’s lows to close at day’s high is a clear bullish sign. The results of RIL and other major companies results shall be discounted at current levels is debatable. The internal demand for infra structure, construction and related activities were grossly stalled for want of Govt direction and the 3-G auction and other related policy decisions were put on hold will see light after the new budget. The list can be enlarged but the fact is that they store potential for sustained growth by meeting the internal demand.

The RIL results are not good on the face of it as the other income has increased considerably to 993 cr and the purchase of traded goods has increased from 590cr to 5807cr during this year. The other income and profit from exceptional items has contributed 1363 cr nearly 25% of the profits from operations. The future out look is bright due to KG basin oil & gas may hold the price and the RPL merger may add value but the upside is definitely capped for a quarter at least. The stock has very good support at 1530 level. Any dip below this is a buying opportunity as the support at 1330 level may not breach under present conditions.

The Rel Infra results are good under these difficult times. The R Power news flow is good as many projects are in pipe line, RNRL results are good. The HDFC bank results are good but it says that the NPAs may increase due to the economic slow down is a cause of concern.

The inflation was at 0.26% when compared to the last week gave good signs of relief to the RBI as it plans to induce more money into the system to spur the demand as the estimates of growth was pegged at 6% much below the regularly suggested levels of 8%-few months later7.5%- few weeks later it was at 7% and now the latest figure.

For today the Nifty has to trade above 3381 level to continue the up trend. The street reaction on RIL results hold key. The yesterday levels are for RIL, Rel Infra. As such there no serious change in the levels as they were discussed earlier. The ICICI has to face resistance at 442-39 level but the support exists at 415 level. The Relcap may face resistance at 549-51 level.

Today BEL, CIPLA,IDBI, Ranbaxy, Maruti will announce their numbers.

The Performance of yesterday :
Nifty 3439.90 3310.5 3423.70
ICICIBANK
431.60 395.10 424.40
RIL 1774.90 1696 1763.70
REL infra 716.65 662.10
712.35
Rel Cap 535.60 496.05 531.80
DLF 240.7 222.40 238.05
HDIL 147.25
124.15 144.85
HDFCBANK 1100 1065.40 1092.50
T.STEEL 266.35 238.65
262.85
SAIL 116.40 106.50 115.10

The Big boy announces…

The India’s top market cap leader, index mover Reliance is going to announces is quarterly results. The markets are waiting for the RIL results and the Nifty may swing in tune with the scrip.
The top notable companies that are going to announce the results are RPL, RNRL, Rel infra, Rpower, HDFC bank, LIC housing, SKF, Idea Zee news and many more…

The Nifty is good above 3381 and weak below 3356 level. The RIL results influence the market trend. The Nifty become weak if it trades below 3320 level will likely to touch 3265 and next at 3229-31 level. The second support level will provide reasonable bounce from 3211-18 level to Nifty.
The RIL is good above 1735 and weak below 1715 may get support at1684 level, once it falls below 1665 will get support at 1615-30 range.
The banking major SBI and ICICI are facing Bear heat. The SBI is weak and good support is at 1180-65 level. The ICICI may get support from 376-79 level. This will gain strength only when it crosses the immediate resistance at 416-18.
The Relcap is exhibiting good support at 500 level and will gain strength above 521 level and weak below 511-13 level. It has bounced from the support at 491 level when it touched 495 low now holding above 500. In case it falls below 495 then the support at 472-467 level.

The HDFC bank is facing resistance at 1100 level and the support at 1040 level. The critical juncture is at 1085-1067 range.Please watch out for break-out in SAIL, RCOM, United Spirits.The reality sector major is getting support at 225 level and the HDIL at 124 level.

The cut is developing…..

The Nifty is carrying loads of wait on long side despite of global corrections; it could keep the head above deep waters for a better sailing. The major news that dampened the sentiment is the exclusion list of 50 companies from the FO segment from June-09.

In the todays trade the tech majors did not see a deep cut but the HCL tech, NIIT, NIIT Ltd and Rolta lost the ground by10% and more. The mid cap reality sector stocks, media and software stocks that face the threat of exclusion lost nearly 10%.The metals corrected steeply, especially Tata Steel and Ster. The major up moves seen in the smaller names but the Tata Elexi, Bajaj Holdings, LIC housing, Suzlon and Wockpharma deserve worth mentioning.

The up move was capped at this juncture unless the markets get good going tomorrow above 3415-18 level. The Reliance is saving the fall, weak below 1715 level and is good above 1735 but a rally is not visible. The new in RPOWER triggered a rally in the stock but its parent company REL infra made a consolidation but it well rally only if it could stay above 693 levels. The banking stocks in anticipation of the rate cut rallied now easing on the news and may correct steeply if the SBI fails to hold above 1256 level. So tomorrow is crucial for our markets and the global news holds the key.

The fall stopped….

The markets could recover due to RIL, Bharti, ONGC, HDFC, HDFC bank and DLF could place hurdles for a bear run across the board. The markets could recover in the mid session to trade in green but failed to hold the gains in the late session due to profit booking.

The Following scrips covered in my morning
posting:

ICICIBANK 416.35 391.30 398.75
RIL 1733.65 1684.70 1706.10
REL infra 689.50 662 673.85
Rel Cap 522.85 495 507
Nifty 3414.70 3309.35 3365.30

The RED spreads….

The results of TCS are good and the 1:1 bonus is not going to cheer the street as the steep sell off in the US and the Asian markets with a cut more than 3%.

The best days of AXIS banks are yet to come but the Naik resignation will have a deep cut despite the good numbers. The technology major Infosys will starts its southward journey from here to touch 1269-71 level and the bounce is expected for 1211-16.

The suggested levels in my previous posts valid and the bounce bank will happen from such levels. The Nifty will face tough resistance at 3411 level for the time being. The immediate support for today is at 3313-16 and the second support from where a serious bounce expected is at 3265-71 level. This will become a serious cut once it falls below 3250 level.
The Reliance see a deep cut below 1718-21 level and the support for this day at 1665 and at 1654-51 level.
The positive side of yesterday move of REL Infra may find support at 659-61 level and at 649-51 level, below this level serious.
The Relcap is weak below 536 and likely to go below 500 to rest at 496-93 level. The ICICI is also weak below 441-39 level and likely to touch 411 and at 403 the supports are existing but the scrip will dip below 400 and bounce is expected from 381-78 level.

The correction is good….

The correction in the markets is good for the long term investors. The rally was sharp and very few could venture to grab the opportunity. The world economic situation has not improved but the hope that could build on the extreme pessimism when Dow touched the 25 year low below 700 levels. Now such an extreme situation could suddenly emerge as a rally over that lasted for more than 6 consecutive weeks to create a history in US that was not happened in the past 60 years. The strength of extremism of pessimism made a Bear trap and now it can be gauzed with this heavy short covering lead Bull grip over the markets across the globe.
The cool off signs are emerging in all the markets and they are now enjoying the vacation at higher level as consolidation. So our Nifty could again touch 3080-3020 level due to our domestic issues. The confusion over the new government formation gets accelerated as the “third front” will emerge from political turbulence as the polling phases get closer to end by May second week. The tussle for the premier hot seat, the FM Budget and June end quarterly results will clearly provide the right direction to our markets.

For today, the Nifty is strong so long as it trades above 3360 level. The Bulls will gain strength above 3426-35 level but will yield to selling pressure incase Nifty fails to cross 3411-09 initial resistance. The high volatility may reduce and may get support at 3313-11 level, the second support will be at 3280-88 level. The Asian markets are flat with negative bias.

The counters that lost the charm are The RIL and ONGC. The RIL is weak below 1730 and face serious resistance at 1757-1751 level. The RIL will get support at 1665-67.
The ICICI bank is strong above 444-45 level but will become weak below 435 to touch 419-22 support level.
The Rel cap now facing bear pressure gets resistance at 551-49 range and likely to touch 480-475 range. For today it may get support at 491-93 level.
The SBI is showing good support at bottom till yesterday evening failed to hold the ground above 1306-09 level may get support at 1259-56 if it fails trade to trade above 1320 level.

The Rel Infra face resistance at 685-83 level and may find support at 621-23 once it trades below 659-61 level.
The DLF received a series of bottom support at 222-226 level for 4 trading sessions may once again get support.

Now the time to wait……

The markets are under bull grip with out any doubt. People find different jargons to situations but the ultimate goal in market participation is to make money. The serious investor or the trend follower simple finds way to adjust in the right slot to take the pie worth deserving.
The strength of markets at the bottom and the building process was so excellent that the advancement was like creeping. The retail investors were skeptical to participate in the pessimistic environment. This provided a god sent opportunity to Bull operators to scale to touch new highs. The history is writing on the wall.

The Nifty rallied from 2539 on 6th March to 3511 on 16th April, in 24 trading sessions it rallied nearly 970 points with out any serious set backs.
The fall on 30the was really serious to cover but covered in style to trap the bears. The front line stocks like REL Infra, Rel cap, SBI, Axis bank, RIL LT and many more rose by 50% as the short sellers were seriously trapped. The classic example of retail short covering at the fag end of the day on “Infosys results-15th April” triggered rallyand effortlessly stocks fell on the next day itself.

Now the challenge is to find out the emerging trend. There some stocks that emerged as Bullish in the last 3-4 tradings and the earlier front runners taking a pause in the run up. The stocks like HUL, ITC, Wipro, LT, SBI, Axis bank and to some extent Bharti are exhibiting bullishness.
The RIL, ONGC, GAIL, Rel Infra, R-power, NTPC, DLF, HDIL, T motors, TCS, United spirits and metal majors seems to be buckle to bear pressure.
The short covering stretch can be observed in BHEL, Maruti, T-power and in United Spirits.

Spectacular grip……

The Bulls hold the spectacular grip over the markets and saved the day with de-coupling with the rest of the world. The journey calculators went on counting the points added from the low to the highest but the markets interested to make a new high each time and every time for the last one month.

The correction happened only one day and the rest is internal and intraday. The side lined waiting money woke-up and starts chasing the stocks for now as if we are in a run-up Bull market. The RIIL has again made a 40% gain and the sugar stocks rallied by 15-20%.

The SGX Nifty suggests that the Asian markets are in green with Hang Sang by 1.35% and the Nikkei up by 1.8% and we are likely to open above 3400 with 50-60 points gap up. As suggested in my earlier the Nifty will take a breather here (………The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.)

The Nifty has good support at 3050 level and very good support at 2960-50 level. The markets rallied enough to cross the hurdles at 3135 and 3280 level. So the fall will become weak and bearish only when Nifty trades below 3000 level. The corrections will be stock specific and the overall markets are in higher orbit.

The Nifty has resistance at 3423 level and the support at 3311-09 and at 3273-71 level.
The Reliance rallied yesterday beyond expectation 1763 and the selling may come at 1787 level. The bottom support will come for today at 1706 and at 1695-91 level. The counter will become weak below 1693 level.

The bear hug counters like BHEL will become very weak below 1495 and it will get short covering if at all only above 1540 level. The other weak counter is Bharti will become weak below 620 level is facing resistance at 670 level. India bulls realest may see some selling pressure above 137-39 level and Rolta will face resistance to cross Rs75-77.

The counters like ICICI which went up on low activity may run up to 393 and to 403-06 level so long it trades above 373 level. It will become weak below 368 level.
The Rel Infra is good above 616 to touch 660 level but will become weak below 603 level. In case the stock shall not trades below 593 will see selling pressure from short sellers and the bull un-winding will accelerate for every 5 rupee fall.

Correction in the momentum…..?

The markets across the globe are taking a breather in the Bull run initiated 4-weeks back. The Indian markets displayed the much required strength against the bad times when US falling to touch its 25 year lows and participated in the bounce back. Now the real testing time to our markets whether we could de-couple and rise or not?.

The SGXNifty suggests that the Nifty could see a cut of nearly 90 points in the opening. The Asian markets were down and Yester day holiday saved our cut but today Bears exert more pressure on the Bulls to hold the ground above 3150 level. The early morning support may come at 3130 level but the Nifty has support at 3080.

The RIL has the initial support at 1617-23 level and may touch 1594-91 level to bounce sharply above the first support level.
The HDFC the star performer may loose some strength but it is in the Bull grip so long it trades above 1609-1620 has the potential to touch 1945-60 level.
The much roller coaster rider with great swings either side happened on Monday in Rel Infra may yield to selling pressure; get support at 676-73 level and at 666 level. The scrip will rally to 669 level once it trades above 593 after this correction which may trap the bears by touching 532-526 level.

The best out-performers of the recent rally- LT has good support at 720-16 level and get very good support at 701-03 level, the RCOM will get support at 186-188 level, the Bharti is in Bull grip sol long it trade above 617-21 level.

The metal may correct sharply. The Sail likely to touch 93 level, The Tata steel may touch 206-09 level and the Sterlite may touch 345-43 level.
The correction will check the journey when the SBI reaches 1025-35 range, Relcap touches 369-73 range and the ICICI touches 329-324 range.

The strength displayed…..

The markets showed their positive strength on the back of Asian markets rally. The opening was so bullish but failed to hold on the gains due to the weakness in RIL, SBI, HUL and ITC but closed in positive territory with the help from RCOM, Bharti, LT, HDFC and HDFC bank.
The mid-cap rally is phenomenon be it ESSAR OIL BY 50%, RIIL BY
40%, GITANJALI BY 25%, MRPL & CHENNAI PETRO rose close to 20%. The rally is very sharp and interesting to complete the cycle to squeeze the retail short sellers in the market. These moves will threaten the other dare devils to think of selling in the market even though their calling is right. These pre-empting techniques are useful to the market movers/operators to manage their stocks to their tunes.

The market leader RIL seems exhausted, this can be confirmed when the Reliance fails to trade above 1693 level as the Reliance high made Monday at Rs1742/- is a clear indication of capping at the top. The correction may lead the stock to touch support at 1535-45 range.
The Nifty has first support at 3109-18 level and the second support at 3020-26 level. The Nifty will become weak only when it trades below the second support level. The consequent 3 day lows at 2962-66 level any way come to rescue the Bulls even a deep correction is un-warranted.
The Banking lot will correct sharply by more than 20% in this fall but the resilience to bounce is still inherent.

The Asian surge….

The Asian markets are trading in green with a positive move up wards by 2.5-3.5% but with an exception of Shanghai Composite in red. The markets are filled with josh that could lead this rally further as the negative data coming is not surprising to the markets as it is used to live with.

The SGX Nifty is suggesting that the Nifty is well above the resistance level at 4265-80 level and currently trading at 4335 with low as 4265. So the markets shall run on its course as the Bulls are hungry for more. The Nifty could be expected to touch 3381-4408 in coming days as the momentum is well in place. The fag end of the run will be fast and surprising.

The good policy is to avoid fresh entry at this level. The Nifty likely to get support at 2935-65 level while coming down can be an etry point. The Nifty built this empire with a classic bottom building process at 2565 level for 3-days and 2740-2773 for 3-days and 2962-66 for 3 consequent days. So even by simple averaging theory suggests that the market has good support at 2775 level.

The Reliance was the first to move the Index has resistance at 1848 level and good support existed at 1535-15 level. The Rel-infra has the potential to touch 609-11 level and likely to touch 669-73 level in coming days so long it stays above 551-53 level.

The Banking giant though lagging the run but has potential to touch 1320 level if it stays above 1060-65 level. The ICICI bank is the most battered stock even in the recent bull-run is running in line with others but with great exhaustion may face resistance at 393 level but can be expected to touch 416-21 level. The stocks like NTPC, HDFC, HUL, Axis Bank and Bharti are becoming hot favourites for Shorting.

The Rally reached………….

The markets enjoyed the rally despite of all economic bad news and demand contraction at home but on US markets. The global markets were enthused by the US rally because every else country is in a better position the worst effected. Now the news headlines carrying the 17 month old recession is now taking efforts to rise from the lows. The same thing has reflected in their indices.

The dependant emerging markets (third world) countries will now feel the heat as there could be some time lag to face the challenges. Now the real testing times a head to our Indian corporate houses to overcome both the demand contraction at home and shrinking margin abroad. The US will place many restrictions to save their economy and the exporters will face the margin pressure as the Rupee already reached a level. So every 1% of rupee strengthens place the exporters at very disadvantage position. The plant shut downs of the new offshore acquisitions will squeeze the top corporate houses and the interest burden will erode the little earnings made. Now the future for Indian corporate houses is very challenging and so is their market cap.

The Nifty has cross the earlier resistance at 2860 level with ease as it could absorb the selling pressure at 2550-2630 level while the US is testing the Multi-year lows at DOW and NASDAQ. The rally is sharp and the openings wee also above 60-100 points on Nifty at the 3000 level to 3200 level shows the squeeze faced by the short sellers who expected the Nifty to follow US in down turn. This could propel the short covering above 3080 level to test the 3229 level. So is the case with Bank Nifty from 3320 to 4425 level. The stocks gained more than 40 to 80% from their lows in this 700 points Nifty rally triggered on first week end of March to date. The first quarter results and the predictions of the strength of the Third Front will carry the tunes to the market. As of now the Nifty may face resistance at 3280 level and may correct sharply.

how far is .....

The extreme side of the market direction from a high of 6357 is the depth of fall one is expecting to stop and at an early date. The effort is to understand and analyse the swings......

The critical analysis shows that the markets are in tail spin fall to a dismal low of 2253.75 on 27-10-2008 from a high of 6357 on 08-01-2009.

The All-time High: 6357 and the All-time Low: 2253

The high to fall 6357 to 4448.50 low registered on 22-01-08 in 10 trading sessions with a fall of 1890 points is the begining........

HIGH : DATE LOW: DATE
6357.00 08-01-08 4448.50 22-01-08
5391.60 29-01-08 5071.15 31-01-08
5545.20 04-02-08 4803.60 11-02-08
5368.45 19-02-08 4620.50 10-03-08
5019.20 12-03-08 4468.55 18-06-08
4970.80 28-03-08 4628.75 16-04-08
5298.95 02-05-08 4913.80 12-05-08
5167.40 16-05-07 4536.25 05-06-08
4626.45 09-06-08 4369.80 10-05-06
4679.75 18-06-08 4093.20 25-06-08
4324.75 26-06-08 3848.25 02-07-08
4114.50 07-07-08 3896.05 08-07-08
4215.50 11-07-08 3790.20 16-07-08
4539.45 24-07-08 4159.15 29-07-08
4615.90 06-08-08 4464.00 08-08-08
4649.45 12-08-09 4248.00 22-08-08
4398.80 25-08-08 4201.85 28-11-08
4522.40 02-09-08 4328.90 05-09-08
4558.00 08-09-08 3919.35 16-09-08
4303.25 22-09-08 3715.05 30-09-08
4000.50 01-10-08 3198.95 10-10-08
3648.25 14-10-08 3046.60 17-10-08
3254.85 21-10-08 2252.75 27-10-08
3240.55 05-11-08 2502.90 20-11-09
2832.85 01-12-08 2570.70 02-12-08
3110.45 22-12-08 2701.75 15-01-09
2868.20 19-01-09 2661.75 23-01-09
2969.75 13-02-09 2539.45 06-03-09

SENSEX below 3 year low…

The SENSEX is below 3 year low, where as the inflation was at 2002
levels.

The regular readers might have understood the supports and resistance levels and how they works. The Nifty is still a out-performer when it compared with the rest but the outflow of money due to the global giant financial institutions crumbling performance cast a shadow on our banking sector and on markets.

In my earlier post it was mentioned the Reliance levels and the ONGC today the RIL high at 1220 and low at 1142 level and the ONGC took support at 637 . The Nifty took support at 2564 but it did not tried to cross the 2680 at time.

Now the markets are under severe selling pressure that to delivery based selling by institutions forcing the markets down. The Asian markets are ok and the yesterday cue from Europe and US also good but we did not follow them just because now a days we are a head of them…leading them.

Against all odds.......

The 12 year low of DOW in US and the free fall in Europe due to the financial sector fall out did not effected Nifty but forced mourning was inevitable to express and act in line with them. The markets took all pains to stay above 2700 despite of meltdown in US and other European markets for some time and till yester day the lower supports were protected at 2650 level.
The Nifty now has to trade above 2740 level to avoid the debacle. In my earlier posting clearly mentioned the momentum loss in heavy weight despite the Nifty moving up to cross the 2930 hurdle. The RIL, ONGC and NTPC managed the show.
The challenge now is to see the quick recovery from the lows. The Nifty has to move above 2680 level to absorb the selling pressure without violating the immediate support at 2550. The RIL suddenly crumbled in late hour of trade below 1220 to touch a low of 1175 is the cause of concern.
The Asian markets are in green especially the China and the recovery in US failed to hold till closing in US is not a good sign. The SGX Nifty suggests a flat opening, today the Nifty may face resistance at 2741-43 level may get support at 2584-79 level and next at 2550 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1221-1218 level and will become weak below 1191 level may get support at 1146-51 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 663-66 level may get support at 642-39 level.
The severely beaten Rel Infra may face resistance at 451 level may get support at 426 level and next at 421 level, in case it fails to cross the 441 it may test 401-396 level in next two days.
The ICICI may face resistance at 311-08 level may get support at 281and level two support may emerge at 373. The Relcap may face resistance at 331-33 level.
In my earlier posting suggested that the Bharti may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level touched 594.

The US falls out….

The markets across the globe are in a queue to accept the US markets decision as DOW falls to 6-year lows. The Nifty is holding above 2735 could be a challenge as the global concern has worsen than expected. The Nifty at home was down by Budget sentiment and followed by the US concern could hold for two days above 2750. The recovery in RIL is very important as the Banking sector lost more than 15% in some stocks and around 10% in most of the heavy weights despite the expectation of rate cut on the cards.

The stocks like GE shipping moved up from 187 to 225 levels now back to square. The ICICI from 360 levels to 440 levels now back to 360 levels. The effort made to move was used to exit is the main problem in the markets. The HNIs, MFs and FIIs have little conviction that the world economy will recover soon so is the Indian economy.
The Nifty is good above 2803 as Reliance good above 1306. The markets today may not hold above 2780 level cold test 2704 level first and the better support exists at 2680 level. The volumes were dried up and the trading has been confined to limited stocks with high degree of volatility based on news/expectations.

Today Nifty may face resistance at 2793 level may get support at 2724-29 level and next at 2703-05 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1301-1298 level and will become weak below 1281 level may get support at 1246 level and next at 1238 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 683-86 level may get support at 662 level and next at 651-53 level. The Rel Infra may face resistance at 516 level may get support at 486 level and next at 473-71 level where the recent bottom support exists.
The ICICI may face resistance at 373-75 level may get support at 341-42level. The Relcap may face resistance at 381-83 level may get support at 359-57 level. The Bharti which built huge open interest at 640 CA may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level. The BHEL is facing resistance above 1410-12 level may correct steeply if it closes below 1350 level.
The Asian Markets are trading in red with nearly1.5 - 2% cut and the ADRs were not deeply cut. The SGX Nifty is trading at 2740 level down by 52 points. The challenge now is to recover from the lows. In case the Govt willing to provide easy liquidity situation by signaling RBI to cut the CRR and Repo rate cuts to spur the local demand as the inflation is totally under control may save our markets, other wise the markets next broad range will be in a range of 2830-2420 for next quarter.

The determined bulls…..

The Nifty though weak by its level it didn’t let the Bears to take ride across the board. The Asian markets were weak and weak global cues did not help the Bears much to have a run as they wish but the Bull made their best effort to save the territory.

Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: As suggested in the morning post, Nifty could display its strength with a positive picture despite of weak global cues but tried to post nearly +36 points at one point in time. The Nifty made a come back to show a green close from a low of 2736 to touch a high of 2806.85 before closing at 2776.15

The Reliance took support at the first support level at 1240. The ONGC could not cross the 690 level as the high made was at 689.80
The ICICI high did not crossed but came to 365 low, expected 368 level. The Relcap high touched at 387.80 low touched 371.35. The Rel infra in the morning it could trade above 521 level and 17 lakhs traded above that level and the minute it fell below the 511 support level first touché at 496 later after a recovery to 516 then fell back to 493.35 as expected.

The inevitable…..

The Nifty is facing serious threat while moving up due to the US heading to deep recession that could not be saved with Obama package. The treat is that the IT outsourcing companies may face the difficulties as well the exporters.
The Nifty is down from a high of 2970 to 2757 in two days as it fell on 7th Jan from 3150 level 2750 in three days and that registered high was not crossed till date despite many global favourable news and rallies.

It seems that the US DOW likely to breach the Nov-lows but we may go close to 2500 level but the lows registered will not be breached so long we trade above 2550 level. The markets are weak to move but they are strong at the bottom as bottom fishing is seen in the heavy weights.

Today the Nifty has to cross the 2810 level in the intra day movement to exhibit its strength for future. The Nifty is weak below 2835 level and may get support first at 2685 level and next at 2650 level. The ONGC is good above 690 level and may get support at 650 level, it will become weak it breaches the immediate major support at 630-625 level. The Reliance has rallied from 1065 to 1405 lost nearly half to touch 1258 could get support first at 1236-39 level and the immediate good support seen at 1221-23 level. The ICICI is good above 389 and weak below 381 to touch 371 and 368 range from where the earlier move started. The Rel infra is good above 521-23 level weak below 511-09 to touch 493 and next at 486. The Relcap is weak below 386 level to touch the earlier support at 361-63 level.The issue of pledged shares demanding additional margin will effect the prices once the drop below by 20% to the recent supports.
The Asian markets are trading in red due to the spill over effect of US. The SGX-Nifty was down by nearly 33 points at 2723 level.

The belied hopes……..

The Nifty has taken severe Bear beating due to weak global cues and the down turn in the Asian markets. The belied expectations of the markets pushed hard to un-wind the long positions built over the fortnight. This could be the major reason for the Nifty heavy weights opened below yesterday lows.
The news flow is also no good to help the Bulls to hang on their positions. The Europe melts down by 3%and the US is bleeding. In case the US fails to recover at least 2% from the bottom then our markets likely to crumble on its weight.
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter:
As posted in the morning, the Nifty took support at 2757 and the high registered at 2855 (2857-62high and low at 2750)
The Reliance took support at took support at 1258.20 and the high touched at 1307. The ONGC high 689.4and the low touched at Rs 670.0.The ICICI bank though touched high at 438.8 but it did not cross 405 at any point but touched a low at 380.20. The RelInfra has got support at 507.65 touched a high at 528.8

The “LONGS” unwinding…..

The interim budget has everything for the forth coming elections but not for the industry. It is more so for the stock markets. How can we expect fire works from a Govt that faces elections with in 3 months?. The rumors were spread to attract retail positions building in longs and the HNI/operator building on the other side to make some quick money in a week. It is very unlikely that a retailer build against position.

The Nifty was at same closing level when a comparison made with a week back levels show that the stocks in F&O sector are still in the positive territory despite of the Nifty falls by100 points. The Nifty has built solid foundation of bottom building at 2660-90 for 5 consecutive days and at 2750-80 for 6 consecutive trading days. So the is very likely to get support at these levels. The recent top for Nifty was capped at 2926-69 level for 6 trading days.

As the home bound down trend, Erope weakness and the current melt down of Asian markets may put pressure in the opening. If we take a cue from the SGX-Nifty down by nearly 30 points may trigger more unwinding. The Nifty for this day could face resistance at 2857-62 level. The support is likely to emerge at 2780 and at 2750 level. The RIL is good for long only when it trades above 1375-73 level. The RIL will become weak if it trades below 1260 level. But it may face resistance at 1351-53 level for today and the bottom support first at 1291-93 level and further fall may take it to 1271 level.

The ICICI took support at 406 level which I wrote in my earlier posts (……..that The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. …………The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions………..).The Relcap took support at 396 level and SBI above 1126 level. Now the triggers for this sector are lacking but a ray of hope still alive as RBI expected to go for a rate cut soon. The RBI may announce at least 50bps rate cut in CRR to infuse more liquidity in the system after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The ONGC is weak below 694 and good above 705, ICICI may face resistance at 416-18 level and good above 429 only. The bottom support may emerge at 391-88 level. The Rel infra is good above 546 weak below 539 and the bottom support first at 505 and at 496 level.

The strength displayed……

The markets displayed the much needed strength despite the global pressures. The Nifty could hold above the 2886 level and the bottom support has not violated yet.

The bottom building process for the Nifty and for the important stocks like ONGC, ICICI, RELCAP, BHARTI, RCOM,HDFC HDFC Bank and may other. Now the strength was weakened due to RIL underperformance. Unless RIL trades above 1493 the Nifty could head no where. The markets are hoping to get support from RBI for rate cuts and stimulus package from GOI.
The Railway package can influence today before the interim budget on Monday.

The Nifty is strong above 2915 and weak below 2893, RIL is good above 1391 weak below 1381, ONGC is good above 706 and weak below 694, Infosys is weak below 1304 and weak below 1289, ICICI is weak below 411 and good above 421-23, Relcap is good above 426 and weak below 416 level.

The Asian drag….

The Asian markets are in no good mood to move up can spread their shadow on our markets. The Nifty is good above 2915 level and has resistance above 2950 level.
The RIL may face resistance at 1405-08 level and will become weak below 1383 level to touch a low at 1341-43 level. The ONGC one of the leading counters of Nifty has suddenly got support with the 1200 cr IT case facing resistance at 720 level will become weak below 693 level will touch 671-73 level. The immediate support levels will hold as the markets are enjoying the Bulls support.
The two days consequent bear hammering on Relinfra right from the 593-96 level brought it down to 527 level could recover to 542 level. The scrip shall not trade below 511-14. The markets may re-rate RIL and the fertilizer companies with the gas supply.
Yesterday star performers like ICICI and Relcap may continue to get Bulls support. The ICICI is good above 421 levels but it has resistance at 447-46 level. The Relcap has resistance at 432-35 region but is good above 411.
The beaten down stocks made good recovery, be it ZEE, EDUCOM or MC-DOWELL. Yesterday ZEE lost nearly all the gain made in the previous session.

The holding is ……….

The Nifty is fighting against all odds to stay afloat above 2900 level despite of the global pressures, enthused Bears are pulling down but managing to close above 2918 is a good sign to out-perform in future.
The day was saved by the Banking giants along with the telecom leaders as the FDI norms eased. The strength in the market to cross the 2955 level was at cross roads for sure as the heavy weights like LT, Bharti, NTPC, HDFC, HDFC bank, RIL and ONGC are fully saturated for now but the momentum in ICICI and Relcap with support from the reality gainst saved the day. Now it looks difficult for the Nifty to trade above 2955 level unless RIL trades above 1405 and ONGC above 720.
The news flow was lean to support the long waited but initiated bull move to take a momentum journey to scale above 3050 level. The Obama package has value but the most needed immediate triggers for the market lies in US consumer spending and rescuing the banks from the ill-liquid assets. At home the Govt interim budget shall focus on the Govt. spending on infra-structure/allocation and providing liquidity in the system.

The best to cross…..

The Friday rally in US markets shall trigger rally in our markets as well. The Asian markets are also taking cues from the US trading in green with 1-2% gains. The opening can be in green but the afternoon holding on higher levels will determine the upward movement of the Nifty.
The Nifty has shown its first signs of revival to move upwards were shown in the last Friday on 30th Jan but failed to hold on the gains to gain momentum due to tiredness in buying interest as no global cues supported. The Nifty made a high of 2881 on 30th Jan either crossed or the closing was made below the low of 2750 level. The whole week was maintained between these 150 points.
Now once again the Nifty made a reattempt to close above 2835 level. The strengths were drawn from the heavy weights like RIL, ONGC, NTPC, HUL and Infosys along with renewed buying interest in metal pack and the bottom support to IT and Banking sector pushed the Nifty upward.
The bullishness in the RIL came to a resistance level unless it closes above 1375 level. The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. The ADRs rally though gives some relief to techs but the US policies dampen the interest in these counters.
The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions. The metals especially the ferrous sector has bright future as the infrastructure spending especially in sea ports and airports will get further boost.

The hope beneath …..

The markets are expecting some miracle to save from the grave situation. The fast deterioration of the confidence at the future is the main concern. This is more worrying in India than in US. The world has accepted the fact that the US is in recession that to in deep but the un conventional accenting facts that are fast emerging is that the future of the emerging markets are also becoming bleak.
The Indian authorities are confident that the growth rate is at 7% but the fall in the commodities and the real estate sector is hurting the investment proposals. The auto sector is reeling under demand contraction is a classic example of slow down in economy. When there is slow down in goods vehicles is that there is less produce to transport and no demand to export or import.
The no industry not impacted by the demand slow down but the positive signs of price movement can be felt in the same transport sector- the rise in the prices of GE Shipping, SCI, Maruti, Hero Honda and the slight up ward movement in the commodity sectors- ACC, Grasim, Ultra tech, Sail, and in Tata steel are the early signs of knowlegible HNI-people/sources entering to garner the large chunk at deep discount.
The pure technicals show that the markets are at no where movement but the violence is deep during the intraday isnot a good sign for an early Bull move. The bears are determined to short at every rise is helpful to scale new highs in a Bull market is a detrimental force while the markets are finding secured bottom to build an up move. But the fact of the life is that these forces strengthen if the markets can stand against the storm.
The Nifty could build a bottom at 2665-85 level in the early part between 21st -27th Jan and then at 2750-2780 level between 28th to 6th Feb-09. During this process the Nifty did not make any trail to cross the 2880 level on closing basis. Incase Nifty can close above the important resistance level due to the positive global cues then it could easily touch the 3050 level.

The symmetry and possibility….

The stock market is the best approved place where the history is well recognized to predict the future. The technical analysts are interested to extrapolate with an extension/drawn forward to predict the future based on the past. So the stock market predictors rely on the past and believe that the past is filled with vigor to reap profits in future. To draw a conclusion on the matter I want to go to a thumb rule to read the future performance.The possibility ofa repetition to make right symmetry could be possible at Nifty.

The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.

The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.

The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.

The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..
………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????

The foundations…..

The laid down foundations for the Nifty are strong if could rise to see better heights. The strength of Nifty at the 2700-2750 is displayed well but cap at the top at 100-150 points above is worrisome.
As the previous post mentioned the Nifty made a recovery to cross the resistance at 2830 level touched a high 2835.65 and comfortably closed above 2790 level at 2828.45 is a good relief sign that the bottoms are in tact at least for now. But on the contrary side the FIIs are buying since 12th in selective stock futures (373+566+371+207-26 crores) where as they are heavy short in Index futures ((-408) + (-1444) + (-470) + (-303) + (-1017)) shows that the Nifty future out look is bleak.
The Reliance lead rally to pull from the lows shall spread to other counters. The mush hyped Obama bail-out cum stimulus package can trigger rally in US may have spill over effect. The hope on US is high despite of the crumbling economy as the troubles keep darker nights long.

The important results are a head in the next week to influence the direction as their leadership lays future road map of Nifty- ITC, Rolta ,Triveni, TTML- 19th Monday.
The results of Dr Reddy, HeroHonda, MRPL, Mahidra life, Polaris, RPL and Relcap on 20th Tuesday .
The results of Biocon, HDFC, United spirits, Wipro , Yes bank and Zeel on 21st Wednesday,
The results of Bank of India, Bharti airtel, Bharat forge, Cipla, Idea, Kotak bank, NDTV, Praj, Reliance, Rel Infra, Relpower, and Voltas on 22nd Thursday.
The results of Canara Bank, Crompton Greaves, HCL Tech, IDBI, Punj Lloyd, RCOM, RNRL, Syndicate Bank ,Tanla and Tech Mahidra and Vijaya Bank on 23rdFriday .
The results of important companies like ICICI bank, NTPC, SBI, SCI, Sterlite, Sun will be announced on 24th, Saturday where as the hind Unilever on Sunday.

The Global pressure…….

The markets yesterday displayed a decent rally with the support from the reliance and ADAG group stocks. The evening happiness short lived when the Europe closed. The US markets slump dragged the Asian indices down in line with the rest. The spill over effect spoiled the party but the damage is less as we yesterday added nearly 7-10% in important stocks.

The Nifty is struggling to stay above 2830 level was short lived. Now the bottoms for the last 5 trading sessions were at 2701-2750 level. This will be a good formation if Nifty could cross the 2950 level with global cues then we may head for 3600 level for sure. The disappointing happenings are surrounded the markets and will be forced to live in the hostile environment for next two quarters for sure as the new govt. after election will take time to settle down. In case a hung with no clear majority can dampen the sentiment.

Now the market buzz is that the RIL and ADAG fight for gas will end out of court settlement may improve the sentiment, which can easily set the Nifty above 3180 level.
The Nifty is to close above 2790 level to mitigate the negative news effect and rely on the future growth prospects.
The yesterday leader Reliance, today also saved Nifty from collapse despite the selling pressure. The tech giant Infosys took support at 1220 level bounced to cross 1260 level can save Nifty if it can stay above 1280-85 level. The Bharti and HUL took the Bear beating may loose some more ground before a bounce is expected. The TCS results are not spectacular but may stay above 506 level due to new orders.
The metals and the Banking sector are facing difficult time to protect their valuations. The positive point is that these will find buyers as bargain hunting making profitable.

The Global pressure…….

The markets yesterday displayed a decent rally with the support from the reliance and ADAG group stocks. The evening happiness short lived when the Europe closed. The US markets slump dragged the Asian indices down in line with the rest. The spill over effect spoiled the party but the damage is less as we yesterday added nearly 7-10% in important stocks.

The Nifty is struggling to stay above 2830 level was short lived. Now the bottoms for the last 5 trading sessions were at 2701-2750 level. This will be a good formation if Nifty could cross the 2950 level with global cues then we may head for 3600 level for sure. The disappointing happenings are surrounded the markets and will be forced to live in the hostile environment for next two quarters for sure as the new govt. after election will take time to settle down. In case a hung with no clear majority can dampen the sentiment.

Now the market buzz is that the RIL and ADAG fight for gas will end out of court settlement may improve the sentiment, which can easily set the Nifty above 3180 level.
The Nifty is to close above 2790 level to mitigate the negative news effect and rely on the future growth prospects.
The yesterday leader Reliance, today also saved Nifty from collapse despite the selling pressure. The tech giant Infosys took support at 1220 level bounced to cross 1260 level can save Nifty if it can stay above 1280-85 level. The Bharti and HUL took the Bear beating may loose some more ground before a bounce is expected. The TCS results are not spectacular but may stay above 506 level due to new orders.
The metals and the Banking sector are facing difficult time to protect their valuations. The positive point is that these will find buyers as bargain hunting making profitable.

Challenge for market…..

The emerging markets like India are in the nascent stage of accepting big blows and shallow market depth to absorb the Selling or Buying may cripple the strength stock markets. But the positive side of the market is a new trend is developing as “Chase for Quality”- nothing but dependable and sustainable corporate governance along with earnings.
This “CHANGE” in the paradigm to explore quality stocks may bring volatility and relaying on MNC stocks will emerge apart from supporting the proven established Corporate Houses. The quality IT stocks may get more business and the promoter worthiness will bring business and valuation as premium.

The Nifty is at the cross roads as it could face the slaughtering by Bears with various rumors. The Nifty fell from 3150 level to 2810 level due to Satyam fiasco and doubting the other published high rise accounts. The Nifty has to cross 2950 level to mitigate the damage done. The bottom fishing is good for MNC stocks to get advantage of a feel good factors circulating as if they are more sagacious and unadulterated.

The RIL is very weak and good above 1221-23 level but bundled with resistance points as scales up, immediate major resistance at 1245-51 level. The ONGC is good above 695-97 level but has support at 646-51level The ICICI bank has no tags attached to this Satyam tale but the exposure to credit cards and advances were not disclosed yet. The stock enjoys criticism and controversies corner it now and then is good above 485 level but the resistance may come at 497-98 level. Incase the low breaches 434 and close below 439 then it will face the blistered Bear beating. The SBI is good above 1275 and weak below 1240 level. The Relcap is good above 528-36 level as the Nifty inclusion is w.e.f-12th Jan.

The sudden weakness a head of this mess saved Bharti bounced back to 640 level from 610 region to save Nifty could find buyers above 658-661 level other wise the story is no different. The RCOM is good above 208 and weak bellow 195.
The DLF signals to all Bears are clear as the Buy back corned them could save if it trades above 205-203 level and the ardent Bears sell below 195. The FII are exiting the infra and construction stocks may weaken the market and it will hurt the sentiment.

There is every possibility that the GOI may come with more stringent Corporate Governance laws and powers to Independent Directors along with responsibilities.

An article in the Business-Standard covered as……
Merrill, IL&FS sold shares in nick of time
BS Reporter / Mumbai January 11, 2009, 0:41 IST

Days before B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, a handful of financial
services companies, including DSP Merrill Lynch, IL&FS Financial Services
and Deutsche Bank’s non-banking finance company, sold Satyam Computer Services
shares pledged with them. IL&FS Trust Company, which was warehousing them on behalf of the lenders, permitted the lenders to sell the shares.
According to information available from the National Stock Exchange, IL&FS Trust
Company sold 14.89 million shares between December 24 and January 2. On December 24, 2008, IL&FS Trust Company permitted sale of 6.05 million shares at Rs 120.09 each, while another 4.41 million shares were sold at Rs 139.83 five days
later. The trust let go of a further 4.43 million shares at Rs 176 on January 2,
2009 – five days before Raju’s revelations……………………

Challenge for market…..

The nascent stage of accepting big blows and shallow market depth to absorb the Selling or Buying may cripple the strength Indian stock market. But the positive side of the market is a new trend is developing as “Chase for Quality” nothing but dependable and sustainable corporate governance along with earnings.

This “CHANGE” in the paradigm to explore quality stocks may bring volatility and relaying on MNC stocks will emerge apart from supporting the proven established Corporate Houses. The quality IT stocks may get more business and the promoter worthiness will bring business and valuation as premium.

The Nifty is at the cross roads as it could face the slaughtering by Bears with various rumors. The Nifty fell from 3150 level to 2810 level due to Satyam fiasco and doubting the other published high rise accounts. The Nifty has to cross 2950 level to mitigate the damage done. The bottom fishing is good for MNC stocks to get advantage of a feel good factors circulating as if they are more sagacious and unadulterated.

The RIL is very weak and good above 1221-23 level but bundled with resistance points as scales up, immediate major resistance at 1245-51 level. The ONGC is good above 695-97 level but has support at 646-51level
The ICICI bank has no tags attached to this Satyam tale but the exposure to credit cards and advances were not disclosed yet. The stock enjoys criticism and controversies corner it now and then is good above 485 level but the resistance may come at 497-98 level. Incase the low breaches 434 and close below 439 then it will face the blistered Bear beating. The SBI is good above 1275 and weak below 1240 level. The Relcap is good above 528-36 level as the Nifty inclusion is w.e.f-12th Jan.

The sudden weakness a head of this mess saved Bharti bounced back to 640 level from 610 region to save Nifty could find buyers above 658-661 level other wise the story is no different. The RCOM is good above 208 and weak bellow 195.
The DLF signals to all Bears are clear as the Buy back corned them could save if it trades above 205-203 level and the ardent Bears sell below 195.

The FII are exiting the infra and construction stocks may weaken the market and it will hurt the sentiment. There is every possibility that the GOI may come with more stringent Corporate Governance laws and powers to Independent Directors along with responsibilities.
An article in the Business-Standard covered as……
Merrill, IL&FS sold shares in nick of time
BS Reporter / Mumbai January 11, 2009, 0:41 IST
Days before B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, a handful of financial services companies, including DSP Merrill Lynch, IL&FS Financial Services and Deutsche Bank’s non-banking finance company, sold Satyam Computer Services shares pledged with them.
IL&FS Trust Company, which was warehousing them on behalf of the lenders, permitted the lenders to sell the shares.
According to information available from the National Stock Exchange, IL&FS Trust Company sold 14.89 million shares between December 24 and January 2. On December 24, 2008, IL&FS Trust Company permitted sale of 6.05 million shares at Rs 120.09 each, while another 4.41 million shares were sold at Rs 139.83 five days later. The trust let go of a further 4.43 million shares at Rs 176 on January 2, 2009 – five days before Raju’s revelations……………………

May happen again…..

The IT industry is grappling with difficult economic environment due to it over dependence on US and Europe was forcibly thrown into more troubled waters due to Satyam fiasco. The Corporate IT tycoons of first generation shying with ignominy due to this episode and their survival will be more difficult with checks and balances.

None acted with responsibility-The company regulators, top level “lapse of vigilance” at the Foreign Exchange inflow, the lending Banks, the leeway handling of accounts by the PWC and above all the analysts of FII, DII & MF heads with mindless heads made Ramalinga Raju to ditch his company and share holders.

The greed & power to rule the corporate sector putting pressure to “perform by any means” is fast spreading to the developing countries. These kinds of manipulation are very common in DevelopeD countries how ever strict there are aftermath. Here this case is only a sample of the lot in the making and many more will be un-earthed once the graveyard is open for excavation.

The kind of financial irregularities happened at Satyam may happen in other first generation companies if the regulators lay their hands and meticulous eyes to nab the “white-collar crime” culprits. The style of publishing inflated numbers in the balance sheet shall be scrutinized thoroughly and put them behind bars to send a strong message not necessarily to the rest of the world but to these “Financial Vultures” not only eat their birth child company but also cripple the nation’s image and economy.

On Friday the Infra & reality stocks tumbled were finding difficult to trace the bottom as the slide is so massive that no body could understand what happened to who but the whole trauma of buyers was shifted in minutes to sellers when the management of DLF “buy back” was heavily initiated. The stock fell on rumors that the CFO sold more than one lakh shares, like a snow avalanche slide the DLF fell from 225 to 144 and bounced with vengeance to again 220-25 level. The DLF was bought by the promoters to a tune of 17.5 lakh shares at an average price of Rs 193.40 and the total shares bought till date is only 21.4 lakhs.

The Satyam promoters could sell their shares by pledging with IL &FS and others much above 150 per share as the Satyam shares were sold more than 2.14 crore shares when the average price is above 175 by the lenders intimated to Exchanges on 2nd Jan, 1.029 crores of shares sold and intimated to NSE on 6th Jan and again 85.3 lakh share sold and intimated on 8th Jan-09. The poor investors hoping some miracle will happen and turn their fortune are still holding by praying the almighty. The people who burned their energy to build the empire for intelligent master mind rouge are left to their fate called 50,000+ employees looking for help/ recognition for their abilities and service.

The employees who sensed the fall sold their shares- on 22-12-2008 Manisha Mehta-5200, V. Murali-10,000, A.S.Murty-19000, V. Murali-20,000; on 17-12-2008 M.SriRam-1000, A.S.Murty-21,000. On 16-12-2008 Satyam announced the Board decision of buying Maytas.

THE UNANSWERED…………

The New CEO Ram has everything but no to that matters most- “The Information”.

The markets shall face the "test of the depth" to face the selling pressure incase it unwarranted. The stock markets across the globe live in a hostile situation where “The analyst gives wrong calls, the auditors certify any thing for a fee, the promoters publish cooked results and deviated misinformation’s, the fund houses buy with vision of “associations developed” in the nights but the poor retail investor invests the hard earnings for a lifeline of future. At the end of the day the retail investor looses every thing for a toss.

QUESTIONS ???????.........

The unanswered questions are opening in Satyam saga as flood water falls from the dam once the gates are opened for free flow.
The markets were stunned by the financial scandal at Satyam and were surprised to accept the truth of “ALL LIES” by Raju.
The market fell heavily as the built up open position was huge that to in the absence of FII holiday it was built to hand over at higher prices was belied due to the un-expected fiasco at Satyam. The important FII investors resorted for selling at the day’s low price fore tells that they are serious to sell INDIA. The experts are revealing that there are more companies to be micro-scoped for facts rather than accepting.
In case Nifty fails to cross 2957-60 and the low breaches 2812-16 level, then the serious consequences are built in the system. The big names of Indian industry will be doubted for sure and their current valuations will be corrected accordingly.

….The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The
earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were archived but the up move
could be a result of short covering. Now the markets are in bull grip as the
momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god
above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level.
The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level
despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an
off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serious correction of
20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead
the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
…..The SBI, ONGC, Bharti and Reliance are becoming weak but just moving up with unease. The Infosys results and the fiasco of Satyam can impact the sentiment. The Reliance is good above and can touch 1330-1350 range but the resistance at 1372 is crucial.

The ONGC is one of the weakest face resistances at 693-97 level and at 717-20 level.The SBI is the best chart to observe has resistance at 1380-83 level but has good support at 1218-22 level. The Bharti is being in the accumulation phase. The
well drawn boundaries for it are 749 at the higher side and the 650-60 level is
at the lower-side. The DLF made a second trial to stay above 305 but the real
test it faces at 326-30 level but a clear bottom building is happening at 220-16
level. The immediate support level existed at 260-66 level. In view of the RCOM
plans and the future 3G auction it built a bottom at 187-93 level and the second
level in the process at 221-226.

The cemented move…

There was no change in the economic out look of the globe or any country in specific but the stocks are moving North. It is the beauty of the markets that it behaves in style and unique. For those who argue the ticker will be side lined to curse the fate or to make a point of discussion but the ticker will journey the designed course irrespective of the tag that was attached “bear market rally/huge short covering/ bull market in the making”.

The slow economic growth was not fully discounted across the globe. The Indian markets were no exception but the rally triggered after the expiry will take Nifty to 3280 level because of the crude hardening. The rise crude prices will strengthen the RIL, ONGC and RPL. The RIL may start production of KG basin resources.

The readers might have observed the Cement companies move that benefited the most in the Stimulus package-2. The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were achied but the up move could be a result of short covering.

Now the markets are in bull grip as the momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level. The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serios correction of 20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.

The test of stimulation…..

The test of stimulation…..
Due to net failure at my end failed to publish but for record now….

The Nifty is good above 2860 and likely to stay above for some time. The immediate bad news is remote and the positive news keep flowing till the Nifty crosses 3250 and touch 3280 for stop-losses get triggered to clear the weak hands. In case the markets doesn’t find the required bottom push to scale up but still not weak for a free fall as the expectations from Obama is high. So the markets will swing between
2700-3100 to the weak results show and hopes of miracles from the future.

The local news will be adverse as the Govt. is preparing to put pressure on the PAK and their counter “war drama”. The PM will be busy in tackling the external/curbing terrorism could put the economic reforms on the backburner. The political equations will start demanding the “time & attention” as the April-May may heats up the capital.

The SBI, ONGC, Bharti and Reliance are becoming weak but just moving up with unease. The Infosys results and the fiasco of Satyam can impact the sentiment.The Reliance is good above and can touch 1330-1350 range but the resistance at 1372 is crucial. The ONGC is one of the
weakest face resistances at 693-97 level and at 717-20 level.
The SBI is the best chart to observe has resistance at 1380-83 level but has good support at 1218-22 level.

The Bharti is being in the accumulation phase. The well drawn
boundaries for it are 749 at the higher side and the 650-60 level is at the
lower-side.The DLF made a second trial to stay above 305 but the real test it faces at 326-30 level but a clear bottom building is happening at 220-16 level. The immediate support level existed at 260-66 level.
In view of the RCOM plans and the future 3G auction it built a bottom at 187-93 level and the second level in the process at 221-226.

THE LOSERS & GAINERS

The challenge ahead…..

The govt. announced stimulus package-2 was short of satisfaction as there was more room left to do and the govt. announced that the doors were closed for now till the new financial accounting year begins. So the domestic financial and major policy measures are announced except the 3G auction. The international news and the global indices will be in the drivers’ seat as the new govt. in US will determine the next course of action.

The RBI announced policy measures will carry a positive start on Monday unless the Asian markets open deep in red. The banking sector has been waiting and the rates cuts were already factored in the bank stocks. This can be seen as the HDFC has failed to cross the resistance at 1560 level and the SBI took long time to trade above 1335-39 level. The reality sector though raised on big hopes were belied as the 20 lakh bracket was not raised to 30 lakhs is a big set back as the demand and profitability was in and above that 30 lakhs. The Monday trades can change the direction but for now the banks may look South.

The package has unilaterally given benefit to cement companies and to the logistic sector that can afford to buy. The IIFCL will spur the demand but not immediately. The IDFC and PFC are cautious on the demand as the industry is not jubilant to spend on BOLT projects.
The duty cuts on steel products have negative impact on the sagging industry. The reality sector that uses longs gets the benefit and will form a cap on raising the prices due to demand revival by the steel industry.

The overall balancing act by the Govt. will keep the Nifty crawling but not a break-out shoot up with this stimulus and monetary measures.

The stimulus too…

The govt. announced stimulus package-2 has also failed to lure the industry, so will be the market. The Govt. is looking for a long-term sustainable action where as the markets are interested in immediate benefits to see the sentiment revived. The strong hands are interested in long gestation period of rise with intermittent sharp rally where the reverse is true with the small investor.

The RBI announced a rate cut of 50 bps in CRR and 100bps for Repo and Reverse Repo to release nearly 20,000 crores in to the system. The GOI simultaneously announced liberalized ECB norms that can benefit the big reality players and some measures in customs duty to curb the free flow of cement from the neighboring countries. This will benefit the cement companies those were strapped to a fixed price for more than 2½ years. This will have a counter effect on the construction companies already surviving on thin margins were given credit but not the profits.

The real worry for now to next 3 quarters is the demand contraction. The seriousness of economic worries will hit the head lines when the demand contraction in the domestic markets face. The Indian economy is growing on the export fillip despite a large domestic demand existing. Now the challenge is that the exports will be seriously getting affected days to come and the supply glut will impact the purchasing interest of the consumer.

The net-net the Indian economy will see troubled months a head but this period can be considered as a “capacity building opportunity” by the big industry houses.

The stimulus too…

The govt. announced stimulus package-2 has also failed to lure the industry, so will be the market. The Govt. is looking for a long-term sustainable action where as the markets are interested in immediate benefits to see the sentiment revived. The strong hands are interested in long gestation period of rise with intermittent sharp rally where the reverse is true with the small investor.

The RBI announced a rate cut of 50 bps in CRR and 100bps for Repo and Reverse Repo to release nearly 20,000 crores in to the system. The GOI simultaneously announced liberalized ECB norms that can benefit the big reality players and some measures in customs duty to curb the free flow of cement from the neighboring countries. This will benefit the cement companies those were strapped to a fixed price for more than 2½ years. This will have a counter effect on the construction companies already surviving on thin margins were given credit but not the profits.

The real worry for now to next 3 quarters is the demand contraction. The seriousness of economic worries will hit the head lines when the demand contraction in the domestic markets face. The Indian economy is growing on the export fillip despite a large domestic demand existing. Now the challenge is that the exports will be seriously getting affected days to come and the supply glut will impact the purchasing interest of the consumer.

The net-net the Indian economy will see troubled months a head but this period can be considered as a “capacity building opportunity” by the big industry houses.

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Wish You Happy and Prosperous NEW YEAR - 2009

"THE NEW YEAR WILL BRING WEALTH, HEALTH & PEACE TO EVERY ONE"

B.NAGESWARA RAO

The strength gained….

As posted in the morning the Nifty took support at 2899 crossed the resistance of 2983-86 and registered a high of 2999 but closed at 2980 level. The SBI registered a low at 1259.60 and the ICICI touched a high at 464.85. The DLF has made a high of 290 level and the Punj was stopped at 148 level.

The ONGC is offer was accepted by the Imperial energy stock holders. The IRDA has allowed more investments by insurance companies in Indian Infra structure projects is a big boost to the firms.

Nifty is having good support at 2860 level and the resistance at 2983-86 level.
The Reliance has support at 1220-23 level good so long it trades above 1235 and
in Bulls grip above 1245 level.
The SBI is good above 1256 and will face
resistance at 1297-93 and at 1320 level. The ICICI is shuttling between 403 to
460 level. The stock will cross the resistance and trades above 465 then look
for 525-30 range from where the banks will see steep correction.
The
reality& infra move in the past 10 days has exhausted and the correction put
them in trading range. The DLF is still in Bulls grip but the stock is good
above 293 level and weak below 271. The Punjlloyd took support at 136 level may
face serious resistance at 151-53 level.

The wait and watch ….

The year end move is positive as the markets took support at 2812 level bounced back to cross the resistance at 2930 level but the real challenge is that the markets are facing very strong resistance at this moment at 3030 level. The markets are surviving on low volumes in the frontline counters. The geo-political tensions are easing as the negotiations are heading for a solution as the super power US and the UK are putting pressure on PAK, seems threatened that the economic sanctions could be levied.

The saga of Satyam continued to be brutal bruise to investors especially the retail small investors who put their faith. The planned exit of Raju is most worrying to worrying than the corporate administration.
The Nifty is having good support at 2860 level and the resistance at 2983-86 level. The Reliance has support at 1220-23 level good so long it trades above 1235 and in Bulls grip above 1245 level.
The SBI is good above 1256 and will face resistance at 1297-93 and at 1320 level. The ICICI is shuttling between 403 to 460 level. The stock will cross the resistance and trades above 465 then look for 525-30 range from where the banks will see steep correction.

The reality& infra move in the past 10 days has exhausted and the correction put them in trading range. The DLF is still in Bulls grip but the stock is good above 293 level and weak below 271. The Punjlloyd took support at 136 level may face serious resistance at 151-53 level.

MERRY CHRISTMAS….

WISH YOU A HAPPY & CHEERFULL “CHRISTMAS”.

MAY THIS CHRISTMAS BRING WEALTH, HEALTH AND PEACE TO ONE & ALL.

The security concerns…

Both the countries are equipped with nuclear technology heading for a collision can draw catastrophic results. The efforts of India are yielding results as the international pressures are mounting on Pak Govt. and local political uncertainties are placing that country in a fix.

The strength of markets can be gain when the dark clouds of war ceases. The Nifty is facing resistance at 3100 level but 3030-3026 level holds good for yesterday may be challenged to day because the RIL fell below 1315 support level. The HDFC and HDFC bank are driving south wards. The markets may hold in tight band till the expiry.

The Nifty is good above 3076-79 level which will become a resistance and the support for this day could be at 2961-63 level. The SBI is holding above 1265 is good, DLF is good above 296 and ONGC above 694. In case these trade below their support level and RIL below 1296 level is a clear sign of Bear grip over the markets. The HDFC is weak below 1532 and minor support at 1410-12 level. The HDFC Bank is weak below 1036 level and support at 930-32 level.

The Air strike ?…

The Air strike by India has become immense importance to curb the terrorist activities of POK based organizations. The wait and watch approach strengthens the extremists. The peace loving nature shall bring friends but this attitude dilutes with the foes, take advantage of the good feeling to weakness. The markets like the move that lights our spirits however strong we argue on the impairments of war to humanity.
The Nifty is loosing momentum as the heavy weights like RIL, ICICI, ONGC and other counters of telecos. The recent momentum counters are Relcap, Rel infra, HUL and DLF hold the value and not good to be trapped by selling.
At this point the markets have good support at 2961-63 level. So the markets are strong for the Bulls and be with them for short period incase RIL cross the resistance at 1415-18 level or shorts built if it trades below 1315-18.

The Bears gain strength...

As posted earlier the markets reached a reasonable level from where the Bears take advantage to short the market. The final leg of 100-150 points of Nifty is an advantage to off load the stock to retail investor as the markets are ready to face the slow down numbers more wildly than before. The Inflation is no longer an issue but reviving the staggered investment plans and fear to face the future in the corporate minds is the real challenge. The markets will see the dwindling profit margins and “Put On Hold”- expansion plans, then the markets see….

The fight for survival…..3*12
The day displayed a strong fight for survival of the market at 2650 level.
As posted earlier the high light of the day is the smart recovery of SBI to
close above 1085. The RIL is struggling to gain strength to move up but it displayed a decent fight against the Bears. The ONGC and Bharti were subdued despite good effort by the Banking lot to move up. The star of the day is Tata Steel posted 10% rise with huge volume and the DLF made equal volume with good show to cross the 191-93 resistance.

The LIC Housing along and SUN gave above 20% rise in the non index shares is a clear sign of shuffling and choosing the future out performers. The techs lost the sheen due to foreign brokerage house CLSA report dented the growth in share rise, Infosys chopped
down by 4.3% Wipro TCS and Satyam were no exception.

The teleco lost value by 3-5% but the autos recovered on short covering. The Banking sector posted decent gains on the hopes of fall in inflation that can force the Central bank to take an early decision on rate cuts. The Nifty is at cross roads and waiting for break out. In case the RIL fails to cross the 1093 level and trades below 1040-35 then the markets will easily touch the 2000-2100 level with out much resistance from Bulls.

The SBI gained but the RIL, ONGC and Bharti are in negative territory with new members from tech sector. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to
trap the Bears to cover their positions. In case BHEL and LT recovers then there was some glimmer of hope in the capital goods and Infrastructure sector that build due to the NHAI announcements.

Recovery but weak…..2*12

The markets took the support once it touched the low at 2571
level and it managed to claw back to close at 2657 level a much needed support to Nifty above 2630 level and the weakness in RIL and ONGC is a great concern at this point in time.

The Australia cut the lending rates by 100 bps and our top brass discussing for the timing. The stimulus package announced to has some
bearing on Infrastructure companies but the release of funds and the cost that matters a lot at this hour. The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow infavour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels.

In case the resistance at 2750 level crossed with ease, close above 2735-42 will add value to Bulls efforts. The bears will cover the positions as the positive news unfolds as progress progresses and the Nifty may touch again 3280-3300 level with short covering.

The only threatening concern unfolding is the verbal war with neighbours on Mumbai blasts can easily change the direction in case the situation provoked for a war on the terrorist camps.

The RIL has to cross the 1120 level, SBI has to cross the 1085 level and ONGC has to trade above 705level to see the Nifty to scale for new territory above 2860 level.

The Bears gain strength...

A classic formation….

The Nifty has made a classic formation in the last 7 trading sessions from 10th to 18th Dec. The 10th, 11th and 12th highs were as 2940, 2945 and 2937. The lows of 16th, 17th and 18th were 2963, 2943 and 2922. I noticed the averages worked out at 2940-42 level which is quite supportive above 2935 level I wrote in my previous posts.

It is evident that the markets likely to cross 3285 level so long it trades above 2930 level. The bull move cannot be negated until Nifty closes below 2860. The same formation is formed with the front line heavy weights.

The consolidation…

As suggested yesterday the market took a knock in the last one hour breaking the immediate support at 3010 level to touch 2940 level due to selling in the heavy weights. The markets are now in consolidation mode. The charts suggest that the support may emerge when the Nifty touches 2750 level. Today the support is expected at 286163 level and the resistance at 2993 and at 3011-13 level.
The Reliance is the early morning south runner but could hold the level at 1350 through out the day with 10-15 rupees swing. The higher level above 1390 could be a daunting task for now as the crude is in free fall. The ONGC will also see some knock today.

The HUL rally from 236 level to 256 level is heartening to bulls as the sole warrior survived in this Bears onslaught. Now the ICICI bank may loose some gains made yesterday, become weak below 432-31 level due to the selling pressure in the index counters. The earlier posts suggested good above 429 level holds good once again when it takes a U turn from the support levels at 406 and 393 level. Then the counter may cross the 490 level and could touch 520-25 level without much resistance. The NTPC is at the distribution mode at the higher level may see a correction of 20% from 166 level when it closes below that level.
The story of techs to our blog readers is quite evident and the worst victim of the frustration is Satyam. The bounce from 150 level to 203-05 is good to exit as it has tarnished it good image. The long-term selling is expected unless the company and the top investor come with rescue measures by announcing some important acquisitions above 500 million dollars to keep the earnings stream in tact.

The Maddoff..Losses...

The troubled assets due Maddoff deal could spill cascading effect as the days pass by. The market is surging to absorb the good news coupled with short covering. The markets are trading above the immediate support level at 2935 well above that level close despite of the momentum in the upwards has reduced considerably.

The positive side of the up move is that the RIL touched the 1395 level well above the 1356 resistance level. The rebound of the ONGC above 694 level cross the resistance above 705 is a favourable sign. The slow down sectors paid much lower advance taxes reflects the slowing growth and business expansion may pull down the indices by 200 points to 2700-2800 level.The advancement of Bharti, NTPC, ITC and HUL will yield to selling pressure apart from the RPL and RIL.

Valuable hold above….

As expected the markets are above the important support levels despite the global slump. The Nifty crossed the major resistance of the first upward move and it could hold above that level as suggested in my earlier postings.
The Nifty has support at 2750 and for today it has support at 2861-63 level. The volatility is visible in stocks but the Nifty reduced to a band.

The move came from the weakest is the cause of worry- the Reliance and the RPL taking baton from the Reality pack that emerged star performer due to the package support and interest rate cuts. The RIL is good so long it trades above 1281-76 level both for the stock and for the Nifty. The Nifty may face resistance at 2991-96 level.

The DLF may yield to selling pressure below 278 level, the RELinfra weak below 659-61 level, Relcap is weak below 540 for this day. The banking giant SBI weak below 1220 level and the up move can be expected after it touches 1134 and holds above 1158-61 level. The ICICI bank upper side move resumes once it touches 371-73 level and trades above 406-8.