The Reflections of the past…..

The history is to visit the past to plan for the future with the presents scenarios. The stock markets provide ample of evidence to correlate with the past experiences. The end of the Bull market can be gauged by the exuberant rise in the small cap stocks that are known to no body. The reverse is the case for the end of the bear market when the well known most trusted firm’s bankrupt and the HNIs and the wise will grab the opportunity to invest for long term. Now the time is……

Uncertainty is Certain… 25-12-2007

The stock valuations are most vulnerable by their nature to the minor and major issues and to local and international issues even if they are not of much importance on the face of influence a lot in the minds of investors cause anxiety fluctuate in price irrespective of the percentage of concern. We can easily say, “the uncertainty is certain” at the bourses each time and every time. Those who fear about uncertainty can search their souls in peace, as nothing is certain.

As expected in my earlier write up the market bounced back on bull track in 4 trading sessions.(………if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run…….. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma).

Now the challenge at the Nifty level is to stay above 5778-71 to register a new high and above 6400 level by the end of first week of Feb-2008. The run up in the prices of power and infra will take a back seat and the service sectors and hotels will enjoy the support of bulls along with FMGC & retail move. The gas transportation and the network is the emerging sector. I have been suggesting holding in Fertliser stocks and the next big bet on banks with insurance exposure. These sectors will explode maximum followed by oil exploration and allied services.

No longer immune…….

The Indian markets are resilient to the external pressures of equity fall as the markets see good future but the immediate and short-term pressures cann’t be ruled out. In my ealier write up dated: 29/10/2007, clearly mentioned the possible up side be capped at 6290.

It can’t be stretched further….

…..I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level.
The markets are likely to see more down ward action than upward momentum. The rise and fall ratio could be of 1:3 from next week onwards until Aug-Sep-2008. Incase economy could face the challenges for next 6 months than the upward journey in the stocks resume. Indian stocks revaluation based on the broad based economy and growth prospects is over and the real test is that the companies have to perform given the opportunities, then the markets. So is US………

The markets are fighting for their survival as the Bull Run took a beating at the bourses. The markets will take considerable time to resume their upward move. (Pls.read my earlier write ups.---the range suggested at 5250-6290 but the high touched at 6347). The game plans of the operators are very clear that they took the Sub-prime issue for more than 6-months so that the retail investors forget. I warned that the sub-prime issue is much bigger than what they pronouncing.

Now the long period of consolidation is good opportunity to traders as they can get in and get out at every 12-15% rise and fall. The earnings will be good to the Indian industry as the consumer demand and the economic growth continue to flourish. The markets likely to test the bottom at 5192-5226 at the worst scenario but this will happen only if the Nifty fails to cross 5935 before the end of Jan-FO series.

The markets likely to get support at 5670 level as first support and if trades below that level then the support at 5445-15 level at the October-07 level. So long the Reliance stays above 2630-50 level, ICICI stays above 1135-29 level and the ONDC stays above 1090-1110, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. This correction is a measure to MFs & FIIs to save themselves from the Mid-cap trap happened at 2005.

The Fittest will….

The trouble was there in the market when the markets crossed 6300 at Nifty level and the supports became weak but it survived on the euphoria of Mid and small cap run-up. I personally warned in my write up titled..(Y can’t it be…………….Dt.18-11-2007……. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………).

The situation could not have this much worse but the deep write down mess in the US financial sector gave an opportunity to correct the steep valuations at the home. So the conclusion is as simple as that “Never buy beyond a point… the point can be identified by the age old, ever green safe investment method—P/E ratio”.

So never blame the market or the seller who made you to buy. It is a simple marketing strategy. While some one out for shopping shall understand his/her home needs rather than blaming marketing people. The emotions at stock market will drain the purse and fill the heart with pain.

The end of the BULLRUN?.17-12-2007

The markets are taking deep breath to settle for a long leap up move or end of the Bull Run? Is the question at this point? I see a steep correction like that happened in May 2005 if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run. Incase the nifty fails to trade and close above 5885 tomorrow, it is likely that the markets likely to touch 5321-28 level and then markets need strong cues to rejuvenate the bulls. The big boys of the market are very silent for their own reasons but the time has come that they need to infuse vital medicine to the Bulls to take on Bears. The good support of RIL at 2640-30, SBI has support at 2135-2128, ONGC has support at 1060-70, Bharti at 835-829 level and the ICICI has support at 1085-1090. Incase two or three stocks could stay above 4-5% above those support levels then the markets are for the Bulls. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma With out doubt, the Small cap and Mid-cap run-up story is intact until the Nifty stays above 4865-4935 levels.
Distribute and eliminate…………..21-11-2007

Who will buy at higher levels is all ways the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used and shout… buy buy buying—happening every where……create a confusion in the minds of investors and make them to believe every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.

In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses? The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.

“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through a research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………

Gross & wild violation…..22-11-2007

Any body who live with technicals can contribute this fall is steep and wild in violating the supports. Any way the fact is the bottom is lost. The hope totally depended on the reliance, ONGC and SBI. They are very strong even at this level of correction. The bulls have the last opportunity to believe the market is a Bull market until it stays above 5175-80 levels. The markets can fluctuate with a wide range of spread for a greater consolidation as the prices have reached relatively high level.
Then the hope lies a head so long the RIL stays above 2580 at immediate support level and can even touch 2440-50 level. The ONGC got the support at 1090 and even can touch 1010-20 level. The big banking leader can touch 2020-2030 and even touch 1910-1900.
So wait and see what will happen at global level and at the local level. The ray of hope lies with the support from local institutions and the deep-pocketed HNIs who are waiting for long time when the FIIs are at buying spree after the rate cut at US.

Y can’t it be…………….18-11-2007

The story is contrary to the current happenings at the bourses. The positive side shall go this way….
In my earlier write up I clearly mention to hold positions in fertilizer stocks for decent gains. Now they doubled from the prices recommended to buy & hold. In the same manner I wrote about the investments of FIIs in our markets. They first invested huge amounts in the Reliance group. They are familiar with the reliance group growth story than the Indian growth story. Now they are spreading their investments to other sectors with different groups. The large caps are rather fully saturated at the price level and left with little scope for further appreciation. So the MFs, FIIs and the DIIs are left with no option but to explore new opportunities with emerging companies though they are small to medium in size at this point in time. The flare up in prices is due to the mismatch in their size and the liquid cash chasing the stock.
The negative side shall go this way….
The small cap and the medium cap stocks are now in their flare-up run at the bourses, but the investigative approach can show a dark side of manipulations in the game.
The story goes back to the 2005-2006, the FIIs, the MFs and the operators heavily invested in (the early bird catches the fish) the Mid-small cps to capture the instant large gains which turned out a futile effort due to lack of liquidity due to the steep crash when the Sensex was at 12000 range. The investments became dud for long two years with no moves. After a long frustration, now these people captured the up moves with vengeance. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will know about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………

The retail investors always caught because of the Price Luring while moving up and Fear of Loss while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.

The Citi may not sleep….

The bottoms of the Nifty are intact, gained some strength at 2685 level and the Nifty likely to easily cross the 2839-41 level and may touch 2865-69 level with the markets/economy stimulus actions proposed by the Indian govt.and the positive but cautious views of Obama and his economic team. The markets took all measures that can help it to advance to scale high to give decent returns to Bulls. The sector specific moves are now stock specific and news specific.
The Citi bail out package and the proposed auto makers support plans may ease pressures on Bulls and short covering may emerge across the globe for a decent rally in December.

Expected Positive move……

The life in the Indian markets was displayed as expected in the previous post. …..The immediate first aid help to markets considered completed when Nifty crosses the 2680 level…….The makets moved in the last 45 minutes to surprise the bears and closed at 2693 level and touched a high of 2718.60. The markets displayed the strength but the volume is nothing special to mentions. The move is to threaten the bears and to display the inherent zeal to buy at the rock bottom levels.
The money inflow to mutual funds is a positive signal, the recovery in the global markets along with India may continue for some time unless some thing unusual catches the headlines.

The DLF belied the expected move to cross the 236 level but accepted the resistance at 219 and made a journey to touch 180 is a negative signal that to with huge volume despite the buy back at 600 was on. The real estate sector as a whole will see a subdued life for another two years as they are grossly depended on the FII shopping, HNIs and the NRIs. So those who want to wait and continue to buy at lower levels irrespective of the price can choose the sector as it has higher value to unfold in future but the near-term is bleak.
The plan of the Govt. to spend on infra structure was good but the life of the govt is too little to make a change. So this can generate hope but the actualized benefits are small.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom at the 2500-50 level, unless broken that support and SBI trades below 1085-90 level, the upward journey is likely to continue till 2930 is reached. The tiggers for the up move basically short covering and the positive news flow from the globe.

Expected Positive move……

So the life in the Indian equity markets was displayed as expected in the previous post. …..The immediate first aid help to markets considered completed when Nifty crosses the 2680 level…….The makets moved in the last 45 minutes to surprise the bears and closed at 2693 level and touched a high of 2718.60. The markets displayed the strength but the volume is nothing special to mentions. The move is to threaten the bears and to display the inherent zeal to buy at the rock bottom levels.
The money inflow to mutual funds is a positive signal, the recovery in the global markets along with India may continue for some time unless some thing unusual catches the headlines.

The DLF belies the expected move to cross the 236 level but accepted the resistance at 219 and made a journey to touch 180 is a negative signal that to with huge volume despite the buy back at 600 was on.
The real estate sector as a whole will see a subdued life for another two years as they are grossly depended on the FII shopping, HNIs and the NRIs. So those who want to wait and continue to buy at lower levels irrespective of the price can choose the sector as it has higher value to unfold in future but the near-term is bleak.
The plan of the Govt. to spend on infra structure was good but the life of the govt is too little to make a change. So this can generate hope but the actualized benefits are small.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom at the 2500-50 level, unless broken that support and SBI trades below 1085-90 level, the upward journey is likely to continue till 2930 is reached. The tiggers for the up move basically short covering and the positive news flow from the globe.

The inflation dips….

The inflation dips to 8.9 %(wow) but no joy to celebrate at the bourses. The fall in the inflation and the low commodity prices will give a breather to the FM and the RBI to chalk out a plan to go a rate cut. The RBI may for 50bps rate cut in CRR and repo rate cut to enhance the liquidity in the system. The stock markets are reeling under heavy Bear pressure and the global situation adding fuel to fire to kill our/ emerging markets as they are at the sprouting stage.

The immediate first aid help to markets considered completed when Nifty crosses the 2680 level. Today the strength in Nifty came from the lows with the SBI spike, HDFC recovery that came from its lows and the Bharti support may turn positive for tomorrow. The Reliance has to cross the last four days closing at 1135-41 level can support the falling market. The SBI has to cross the 1155-58 resistance. The ICICI bank will help the Index by crossing the resistance at 440 level. The ONGC has to cross the 690-93 level, the DLF may cross the 236-39 level. The above levels can be used as the first signs of revival and the move of HDFC and HDFC bank rise from their yearly lows provide strength to Nifty. As mentioned in the earlier posts, the techs are neutral in the Nifty direction.

STOP TALKING…..

The IBM Ad says “STOP TALKING-START DOING”-the only mantra for economy revival.
The govt. is taking advantage of the crisis for the political mileage and asking the industry to go for price cut that can reflect in votes as the public can perceive the difference and can feel the comfort.
The economy is good when compare with the world top economies but our dependence on investment is also high even though our internal consumption is strong and the scope for infrastructure is huge.

The backing sector is crumbling with the bad news of rising bad debts and the MFs are facing the pressure from “the weight of redeem” as the uncertainty is enlarging
The Nifty finally closed at 2635 level, a clear bounce in the world indices can propel our Nifty to scale high other wise it will live like a laggard for next two quarters. The Nifty shall try to bounce back to 2860 level then it may confirm the recent bottom is the low for the rest of the year but the news flow and the govt. attempts are not favouring.

The Nifty now has to cross the immediate resistance at 2800-2810. this can be achieved incase RIL can bounce back to cross the resistance at 1189-93 level and can send positive feelers if it can trade above 1225 level, Bharti above 685-90 level, ONGC above 720 level. The ITC, REL infra, HUL and DLF will add their support. The INFY, TCS, Wipro are now neutral and the banking major SBI is seriously under bear grip, so is the financial sector.

The G-20 effect….

The counties like India whose economic strength and the opportunity to give higher returns to PE players/direct FII investment in core sectors is intact but the global turmoil has dampened the foreign inflow. The high slogans of G-20 heads has limited use as there was no concrete steps to meet the global financial demands and steps to spur the slowing economic growth.

The countries across the world are fascinated to announce that they are facing economic slow down/recession. The top head lines confirm that each day, day after a day, one or the other country either it could be European or Asian proudly announcing the above statement and seeking for help. The G-20 nations at home may reduce the interest rates and increase the money supply to avert the gravity of economic slow down.

The classic rebound from the Diwali Nifty high may produce much required hope to Bulls but the Nifty is currently trading below the support level. Now the concern at home is about the bad debts and the rise. The Govt. shall increase steps to spend more and build confidence to Industry to go for expansion albeit a slower pace. The previous post levels of the companies are not changed but NTPC the sole company in the lot exhibited resilience and made sharp recovery to above 150 levels.

The Nifty will loose the earlier said support at 2630 level and may go down below 2500 level unless the Reserve Bank of India announces the repo rate cut by Wednesday, as the inflationary pressures are showing clear signs of easing. The worst case the RBI can wait for a day, till it finds the clear picture after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.

The Nifty is weak……

The Nifty is weak below the 2930 level and waiting for some positive triggers to cross the 3080-3100 level. The consolidation of Nifty around 2500-3500 level will take at least a quarter and half, and then the up move may cross the serious resistance at 3680 level and at 3900 level. Incase Nifty trades above 2860 and crosses the minor resistance at 2950 level, then it is good to go long in the power and infra stocks but as of now the Nifty is looking south-wards than the otherwise.
The RIL is weak below 1236-41 level, The ONGC is weak below 735 level, The SBI is weak below 1269-73 level, The ICICI is weak below 441-43 level, The DLF is weak below 269-66 level, The TATA STEEL is weak below 196-93 level, The BHEL is weak below 1380-1420 level, The LT is weak below 880-86 level and Relcap is weak below 665-70 level.
The Rel infra is strong and good above 560-68 level, NTPC is strong and positive above 151-53 level, ITC is good above 173 level. These 3 companies are loosing their ground despite of their good show in the last two weeks.
The divergence in the move from negative to positive is expected in the telecom stocks as the foreign companies are interested in our telecom sector. The RCOM is weak below 239-43 level, The BHARTI is weak below 719-23 level but these counters are in accumulation mode.

The fall exhibits….

The Indian markets are grossly underperforming the rest of Asia due to the cropping local issues that are there but dormant.
The production cut backs are now spreading form auto mobile to cotton industry, diamond industry & agri exporters’ dependant on US. The bad news engulfed the infrastructure slow down inspite of lower metal and cement process. The real-estate boom became a doom spoiled the spiraling steel prices party, now a situation to cut the production both hot rolled and cold rolled products. The fall in commodity prices did not helped the industry due to the wide-spread “fear of spending”, the sole reason for this slowdown/recession in the developing nations. The classical example is the shutdown of plants by reliance.
The local demand is not exhausted at the consumer level especially countries like India but the think-tank high level community spreading the voices of vicious feelings that “it could happen in India like US”. So the belt tightening measures controlled the loan disbursal and the consequential impact is known to every body.

NIFTY LEVELS will be posted in the follwing post after 8pm.

Inflation nose dived…..

The great surprise was the fall in the inflation, was below the 21 week level. The inflation was at 8.98% compared to 10.72%, week on week basis but the inflation was at 3.35% a year ago, brought some signs of faster deceleration. As a matter of fact the crude touched 21 month lows at 55 dollars but the Indian government taking time to reduce the local subsidized prices that could even make the inflation lower by 2-3 points lower but the Govt. is tries to meet the fiscal deficit targets and plans to reduce the subsidy burden.

The Indian equities running far behind the Asian peers due to the slow down in our economy and our inherent capacity to rescue from the grave situation is a challenge encouraged the Bears to take a beating on the street.
The markets started adjusting to ground realities as the steep correction from 4400 to 2250 level made a recovery upto 3250 level as a short covering, especially by the weak hands lot got exhausted and the longs if any were also un-winded above 3080 level where the retail investors entered.
There is no doubt that the smart money is entering in the equity market but confined to very selective stocks. The worrisome at this point is the failure of confidence due to the wide spread gloom across the world.
The yesterday laid down conditions were not met either on high side or on the closing basis but left some silver lining while recovering from the lows. The recovery crossed the 2870 level and the actual closing was at 2855 level but the adjusted level placed the Nifty closing was at 2848 level.

The IIP numbers effect….

The IIP numbers announced today were good because above the street expectation but not encouraging as they stand at 4.8% against last year 7% growth. The cumulative April-Sep growth was at 4.9% against 9.5% a year back. The big console was that these numbers are far better than the Aug. numbers at 1.3%.

The recent reports display a big concern about the future investments as the pull out close to Rs 47000 crores from our MFs reveals the faith in our markets and the economy as a whole. The redemption pressure increasing from the melting of value day after day and the cyclical effect is more dangerous than it looks. Now it is too late to sell and puts pressure on the mind due to the "actualised/accounted loss" rather than a "notional loss" that can run for a longer period with a hope of recovery.
The money may not come back to markets so easily as the stocks have to out-perform. But the stock values do not rise as fast as they were a year ago, because there was no chase after them. This grave situation looks/begs for an external investment support. This hypothetical situation has proximity to real situation then the FIIs are likely to buy our Indian blue chips much cheaper than they are today, that to after a considerable time. This opportunity empowers the FIIs to cleanse their home bound investment worries, and then they come back with revitalized strength to emerging markets.
NEVER FORGET that they come back with multicolor research reports that carry the “TREASURE HUNT OF THE EMERGING MARKETS”.

The strength waned…..

The serious knock was a surprise to many who are bullish above 3080 level, every reason to be so except the fear of “dark devil FII selling may occur, so let’s get the early bird opportunity to withdraw the money” is the kind of selling happened when the Asian counterparts start melting. The Nikki was down by 280 odd points when opened in the morning and the Hang Seng held no faith to hold the stocks put pressure on our markets.

The support technicals though lost some ground at the bottom but still a reason to smile for those who can average at the lower levels at 2630-21 level. The markets are under selling pressure for this day but the wipe out today posed a serious question to Bulls.

The developments across the globe are forcing the financial markets to look for bail out packages, now the auto-mobile sector is in the queue back at home the MF are looking for FMPs trouble and the growth slow down may demand a lower Nifty level. The correction is an adjustment as an answer to the demands.
The ONGC and RIL are still in good shape as they can rebound as ONGC is still above 711-20 level and the RIL is above 1115-20 level, until these levels taken out with vengeance, bull have every reason to smile to average the purchases. The real challenge for Nifty, has to cross the 3040 level tomorrow and shall try to close above 2860 even it is a negative close.

STIMULUS PACKAGES….

The Governments across the Globe coming forward to announce stimulus packages that can bring confidence in the investor community, badly shaken by the recent turmoil. The Governments are happy to burn their night oil stock to tackle the emergency situation. The US bail out package, England’s rate cut and stimulus package. Now the China announced a package of more than 580 billion dollars.
A new idea that was floating around on the formation of a BRIC-Trade (Brazil, Russia, India and China), willing to forge a planned measures to increase trade and capital flows. This could be a one more plan to add to the Sarkozy’s sovereign wealth fund plan. The efforts are there across nations to fight against the high handed nature of US investment model and their nature of withdrawals. Hope for the Consistancy……….

The bleed may continue…

The markets are beautifully placed again with a bottom building process at 2560 level first and again at 2860 level but the tapering rater lowered high even today places the chart reader to think in contrary to the possible move but one has to live with the open mind to accept the reality.

In my earlier postings it was mentioned that the markets will be bottomed when the last leg beating was over. The Index on 17th closing was at 3075, the stocks that closed HUL-242, LT-800, BHEL-1191, HDFC-1782, HDFC Bank-1026, SBI-1420 and Bharti-677 and the lows registered on 27-10-08, after the suggested possible Bear beating, Nifty levels registered at 2253, HUL-185, LT-680, BHEL-981, HDFC-1382, HDFC Bank-862, SBI-985 and Bharti-483. the markets were bottom in principle but may the index likely to move close to the lows or even to lower levels to 1935-1865 level (only 10-15 percent chances existing given the present situations).

The trimmed excesses….18*10

The markets are bound to rise as they fell. This is a natural phenomena inevitably happens whether some body likes or not.

The concern at this hour is “how fast and by what time?”. This is the common question lingering in every investors mind. Now just imagine some body met with an accident and was admitted in a hospital, placed in intensive care. Then the question will be of What?. Whether it is survival or surprise on the happening?. Then every body will accept with joy that the patient is alive and will be discharged soon after surgery and due care. The same situation is happened to the financial markets across the globe, all are hospitalized, some are in ICU, surviving on Govt. intervention and some are in specialists care.

So my sincere request to investors is to for get reading the daily news of financial happening unless you prefer to be a day/swing trader. The best thing is keep averaging to the limit some body can, enjoy dreaming the golden days that are being manifested.

The only trouble with the recent young investors is the very nature demanding the high valuations that were there and as a matter of fact they paid for the boom. Now the situation is quiet different, the excess valuations of high P/E valuations above 50 were gone and the realistic levels of 9-14 are ruling. So adjust to the reality and accept the truth, keep on investing in companies that delivered high rate of growth over 3-4 years.

The ray of hope….17*10

I think that the Indian markets are very close to bottom out for time being at least. The stocks are showing resilience to move down in-spite of the best efforts by the Bears.
As posted yesterday the infrastructure stocks are finding buyers at the lower levels. There was a clear hope down the line for next two years we are likely to manage and may cross the previous highs based on our internal consumption despite of the global turmoil that we see now.
The crude is falling, metals plummet gives a scope to ease the fall in inflation. The central govt. likely to announce more investor friendly investments norms and the FII inflow will start coming back to India after Jan-09.
But for now the markets yester day recovered on the back of short covering and some kind of buying at the bottom. The worst is not over as the stocks like HUL, LT, BHEL, HDFC, HDFC Bank, SBI and Bharti have not tasted the Bear beating. So Nifty likely to see some lower levels but it won’t hurt as the most already lost their value. The Nifty likely to cross the 3660 level and may touch the resistance at 3930-3885 level in the coming months. The next fall will complete the bear hammering and the Bulls will take charge. At this time it looks like a joke as it was looked impossible to see a downward move when the indices climbing from 5800 to 6200 level.
The retail investors always caught because of the Price Luring while moving up and Fear of Loss while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.

The hope developed….

The yesterday knock took the Bulls a back seat but the global developments like rate cuts and other positive measure to save the financial system improved the sentiment especially the Asian markets took some lead that propelled the indices to scale new highs.
The Nifty took support at 2860 as discussed in yesterday posting mainly on the back of Reliance improved performance on the bourses. The ONGC took a knock from a high of 780 to 720 in the last 15 minutes is a concern along with the expected cost burden on Bharti for holding excess spectrum. The RIL though recovered from the low of 1151 level to 1240 level but it is still under performing the market can pose a threat to bulls.
The metals recovered on short covering and the star performer on Nifty is the alternative energy major Suzlon, on the back of Obama win who may encourage by formulating policies that benefit the sector.

The Bulls want of….

The global clues are poor to gain strength in our markets. At this juncture the Bulls are want of energy to take on the crippling indices to higher levels. As posted yester day the nifty took support at 2860 level but lost the momentum strength that built in the after noon to the inflation news that rose to 10.72% from 10.68% on weekly basis though is not a concern at this hour of credit crunch.
The statement from chairman of SBI that took a beating that the stressed assets may increase as NPAs in future is a clear sign of recession. The banking industry is the torchbearer of the bull move may now take sides for the Bears.

As per the reports, the bank of England has cut the rates by 150 bps to 3%, lowest in the last 50 years, shows the liquidity concern and the slowdown in growth. The markets shall take it as a positive step, in the long run will help the industry as the crude came to a very reasonable level where every body willing to pay for it.

The global markets are in deep red despite of many adequate measures announced by various governments to mitigate the financial crunch and mitigate the fears of slowdown. There was no solace to investors but the blue chips are at attractive valuations.

WITH DUE RESPECTS TO icharts.

Congratulations OBAMA…..

Congratulations BARACK OBAMA…..
“Hearty congratulation”, CHANGE made a mark in the history to make a CHANGE.
The world experienced the waves of Obama, now a reality to accept the CHANGE as a reality.


The markets fell as they touched 3280 in the futures and fell a crumbling tower to settle at day’s low at2971, closed at 2995. The resistance can be used as an opportunity to build longs at lower levels from Nifty touching 2680-2630 level and bouncing back with a vigour. To satisfy the above condition, the RIL shall not trade below 1080-75 level. The sudden shut down of plants made the markets to feel the heat of recession impact that affected most, especially the India’s top Cap company.
The US markets are also trading lower to accept the more tax plans by the new Prez. The local issues will become clear in next one week, until then just trade or keep fingers crossed keep guessing.

In my earlier post titled as Looming uncertainties……Incase we could rally up to 3280 then the chances are there to see more short covering but the chances are remote to view this favourable situation. The down side protection is more important than the concern for upward rally at this critical juncture. As expected yesterday, Nifty got resistance at 3035 level but in the last ½ hour it could cross the resistance to touch 3065 level and ONGC crossed the resistance at 710 to touch 716 levels. The Nifty shall not breach the 2680 level and the RIL shall not go below 1230 level.

The Bulls party …….

The markets are enjoying the up move as if there was some Bull market at it a high of jubilant mood.
As expected earlier in the previous posts that the markets will get the bulls support as the blue chips are thrown on streets but very few takers to accept the offer. Those who shorted below 2860 level and those who were aggressive below 2680 are started covering their positions. I clearly mentioned not to short below if not interested to buy just maintain sidelines till the confidence builds to venture.
The surprise to day was the ONGC move and the operators in ONGC might already expected a short covering in global crude price as it was trading above 12%m so the ONGC crossed the 710 resistance and rallied to 780 level as the 716 now became as an immediate support. The RIL is consolidating at 1420-25 level as the resistance playing a hinder to a free rise.
The Governments across the globe came forward to cut the lending rates and infused more liquidity into the system to lay some support to the falling financial markets and sagging industrial growth. Now Indian Government take a bold initiative, has given assurance to the industry leaders to take advantage of the financial crisis of the west and maintain the work force without layoffs as the elections are nearing.
The Nifty has crossed the immediate risk of falling back to 2200 level as the bottom was neatly developed at 2550-60 level. So now the Nifty is likely to swing between 2850-3680 levels till the “New Year-09” bells ring.

The World is waiting.......

Presidential elections "a new life" of US. Will the 44th President of US can work for a change that the world is looking?.

I look for a better loving human beings living for fellow beings on this planet?.

The looming uncertainties…..

The intimidating uncertainties in our financial sector are unfolding through the top brass of country second largest bank head confessing the need for bail out package. The Business Standard covered an article titled as With Rs 630k-cr debt, MFs and NBFCs need bailout: Kamath, Press Trust of India / New Delhi November 2, 2008, 19:15 IST……."There is no need for a bailout package for the Indian banking system but the bailout package could be required for mutual funds and NBFCs………

The RBIs move to infuse more liquidity into the system reveals a fact that we are heading to a collision of financial crisis, efforts are in place to avert the gloomy conditions. The opportunities for Bears to make a killing at the bourses are opening widely with more favourable news than to the Bulls. At this point we are now enjoying the relief rally with positive cues from the global markets. The FM to meet with the bankers, PM meeting with the industry heads to create investment friendly atmosphere is more good news that can halt fall in the stock prices.
Incase we could rally up to 3280 then the chances are there to see more short covering but the chances are remote to view this favourable situation. The down side protection is more important than the concern for upward rally at this critical juncture. As expected yesterday, Nifty got resistance at 3035 level but in the last ½ hour it could cross the resistance to touch 3065 level and ONGC crossed the resistance at 710 to touch 716 levels. The Nifty shall not breach the 2680 level and the RIL shall not go below 1230 level.