The markets displayed the much needed strength despite the global pressures. The Nifty could hold above the 2886 level and the bottom support has not violated yet.
The bottom building process for the Nifty and for the important stocks like ONGC, ICICI, RELCAP, BHARTI, RCOM,HDFC HDFC Bank and may other. Now the strength was weakened due to RIL underperformance. Unless RIL trades above 1493 the Nifty could head no where. The markets are hoping to get support from RBI for rate cuts and stimulus package from GOI.
The Railway package can influence today before the interim budget on Monday.
The Nifty is strong above 2915 and weak below 2893, RIL is good above 1391 weak below 1381, ONGC is good above 706 and weak below 694, Infosys is weak below 1304 and weak below 1289, ICICI is weak below 411 and good above 421-23, Relcap is good above 426 and weak below 416 level.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009
The Asian drag….
The Asian markets are in no good mood to move up can spread their shadow on our markets. The Nifty is good above 2915 level and has resistance above 2950 level.
The RIL may face resistance at 1405-08 level and will become weak below 1383 level to touch a low at 1341-43 level. The ONGC one of the leading counters of Nifty has suddenly got support with the 1200 cr IT case facing resistance at 720 level will become weak below 693 level will touch 671-73 level. The immediate support levels will hold as the markets are enjoying the Bulls support.
The two days consequent bear hammering on Relinfra right from the 593-96 level brought it down to 527 level could recover to 542 level. The scrip shall not trade below 511-14. The markets may re-rate RIL and the fertilizer companies with the gas supply.
Yesterday star performers like ICICI and Relcap may continue to get Bulls support. The ICICI is good above 421 levels but it has resistance at 447-46 level. The Relcap has resistance at 432-35 region but is good above 411.
The beaten down stocks made good recovery, be it ZEE, EDUCOM or MC-DOWELL. Yesterday ZEE lost nearly all the gain made in the previous session.
The RIL may face resistance at 1405-08 level and will become weak below 1383 level to touch a low at 1341-43 level. The ONGC one of the leading counters of Nifty has suddenly got support with the 1200 cr IT case facing resistance at 720 level will become weak below 693 level will touch 671-73 level. The immediate support levels will hold as the markets are enjoying the Bulls support.
The two days consequent bear hammering on Relinfra right from the 593-96 level brought it down to 527 level could recover to 542 level. The scrip shall not trade below 511-14. The markets may re-rate RIL and the fertilizer companies with the gas supply.
Yesterday star performers like ICICI and Relcap may continue to get Bulls support. The ICICI is good above 421 levels but it has resistance at 447-46 level. The Relcap has resistance at 432-35 region but is good above 411.
The beaten down stocks made good recovery, be it ZEE, EDUCOM or MC-DOWELL. Yesterday ZEE lost nearly all the gain made in the previous session.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
The holding is ……….
The Nifty is fighting against all odds to stay afloat above 2900 level despite of the global pressures, enthused Bears are pulling down but managing to close above 2918 is a good sign to out-perform in future.
The day was saved by the Banking giants along with the telecom leaders as the FDI norms eased. The strength in the market to cross the 2955 level was at cross roads for sure as the heavy weights like LT, Bharti, NTPC, HDFC, HDFC bank, RIL and ONGC are fully saturated for now but the momentum in ICICI and Relcap with support from the reality gainst saved the day. Now it looks difficult for the Nifty to trade above 2955 level unless RIL trades above 1405 and ONGC above 720.
The news flow was lean to support the long waited but initiated bull move to take a momentum journey to scale above 3050 level. The Obama package has value but the most needed immediate triggers for the market lies in US consumer spending and rescuing the banks from the ill-liquid assets. At home the Govt interim budget shall focus on the Govt. spending on infra-structure/allocation and providing liquidity in the system.
The day was saved by the Banking giants along with the telecom leaders as the FDI norms eased. The strength in the market to cross the 2955 level was at cross roads for sure as the heavy weights like LT, Bharti, NTPC, HDFC, HDFC bank, RIL and ONGC are fully saturated for now but the momentum in ICICI and Relcap with support from the reality gainst saved the day. Now it looks difficult for the Nifty to trade above 2955 level unless RIL trades above 1405 and ONGC above 720.
The news flow was lean to support the long waited but initiated bull move to take a momentum journey to scale above 3050 level. The Obama package has value but the most needed immediate triggers for the market lies in US consumer spending and rescuing the banks from the ill-liquid assets. At home the Govt interim budget shall focus on the Govt. spending on infra-structure/allocation and providing liquidity in the system.
Monday, February 09, 2009
The best to cross…..
The Friday rally in US markets shall trigger rally in our markets as well. The Asian markets are also taking cues from the US trading in green with 1-2% gains. The opening can be in green but the afternoon holding on higher levels will determine the upward movement of the Nifty.
The Nifty has shown its first signs of revival to move upwards were shown in the last Friday on 30th Jan but failed to hold on the gains to gain momentum due to tiredness in buying interest as no global cues supported. The Nifty made a high of 2881 on 30th Jan either crossed or the closing was made below the low of 2750 level. The whole week was maintained between these 150 points.
Now once again the Nifty made a reattempt to close above 2835 level. The strengths were drawn from the heavy weights like RIL, ONGC, NTPC, HUL and Infosys along with renewed buying interest in metal pack and the bottom support to IT and Banking sector pushed the Nifty upward.
The bullishness in the RIL came to a resistance level unless it closes above 1375 level. The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. The ADRs rally though gives some relief to techs but the US policies dampen the interest in these counters.
The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions. The metals especially the ferrous sector has bright future as the infrastructure spending especially in sea ports and airports will get further boost.
The Nifty has shown its first signs of revival to move upwards were shown in the last Friday on 30th Jan but failed to hold on the gains to gain momentum due to tiredness in buying interest as no global cues supported. The Nifty made a high of 2881 on 30th Jan either crossed or the closing was made below the low of 2750 level. The whole week was maintained between these 150 points.
Now once again the Nifty made a reattempt to close above 2835 level. The strengths were drawn from the heavy weights like RIL, ONGC, NTPC, HUL and Infosys along with renewed buying interest in metal pack and the bottom support to IT and Banking sector pushed the Nifty upward.
The bullishness in the RIL came to a resistance level unless it closes above 1375 level. The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. The ADRs rally though gives some relief to techs but the US policies dampen the interest in these counters.
The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions. The metals especially the ferrous sector has bright future as the infrastructure spending especially in sea ports and airports will get further boost.
Sunday, February 08, 2009
The hope beneath …..
The markets are expecting some miracle to save from the grave situation. The fast deterioration of the confidence at the future is the main concern. This is more worrying in India than in US. The world has accepted the fact that the US is in recession that to in deep but the un conventional accenting facts that are fast emerging is that the future of the emerging markets are also becoming bleak.
The Indian authorities are confident that the growth rate is at 7% but the fall in the commodities and the real estate sector is hurting the investment proposals. The auto sector is reeling under demand contraction is a classic example of slow down in economy. When there is slow down in goods vehicles is that there is less produce to transport and no demand to export or import.
The no industry not impacted by the demand slow down but the positive signs of price movement can be felt in the same transport sector- the rise in the prices of GE Shipping, SCI, Maruti, Hero Honda and the slight up ward movement in the commodity sectors- ACC, Grasim, Ultra tech, Sail, and in Tata steel are the early signs of knowlegible HNI-people/sources entering to garner the large chunk at deep discount.
The pure technicals show that the markets are at no where movement but the violence is deep during the intraday isnot a good sign for an early Bull move. The bears are determined to short at every rise is helpful to scale new highs in a Bull market is a detrimental force while the markets are finding secured bottom to build an up move. But the fact of the life is that these forces strengthen if the markets can stand against the storm.
The Nifty could build a bottom at 2665-85 level in the early part between 21st -27th Jan and then at 2750-2780 level between 28th to 6th Feb-09. During this process the Nifty did not make any trail to cross the 2880 level on closing basis. Incase Nifty can close above the important resistance level due to the positive global cues then it could easily touch the 3050 level.
The Indian authorities are confident that the growth rate is at 7% but the fall in the commodities and the real estate sector is hurting the investment proposals. The auto sector is reeling under demand contraction is a classic example of slow down in economy. When there is slow down in goods vehicles is that there is less produce to transport and no demand to export or import.
The no industry not impacted by the demand slow down but the positive signs of price movement can be felt in the same transport sector- the rise in the prices of GE Shipping, SCI, Maruti, Hero Honda and the slight up ward movement in the commodity sectors- ACC, Grasim, Ultra tech, Sail, and in Tata steel are the early signs of knowlegible HNI-people/sources entering to garner the large chunk at deep discount.
The pure technicals show that the markets are at no where movement but the violence is deep during the intraday isnot a good sign for an early Bull move. The bears are determined to short at every rise is helpful to scale new highs in a Bull market is a detrimental force while the markets are finding secured bottom to build an up move. But the fact of the life is that these forces strengthen if the markets can stand against the storm.
The Nifty could build a bottom at 2665-85 level in the early part between 21st -27th Jan and then at 2750-2780 level between 28th to 6th Feb-09. During this process the Nifty did not make any trail to cross the 2880 level on closing basis. Incase Nifty can close above the important resistance level due to the positive global cues then it could easily touch the 3050 level.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
The symmetry and possibility….
The stock market is the best approved place where the history is well recognized to predict the future. The technical analysts are interested to extrapolate with an extension/drawn forward to predict the future based on the past. So the stock market predictors rely on the past and believe that the past is filled with vigor to reap profits in future. To draw a conclusion on the matter I want to go to a thumb rule to read the future performance.The possibility ofa repetition to make right symmetry could be possible at Nifty.
The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.
The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.
The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.
The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..
………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????
The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.
The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.
The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.
The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..
………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????
The foundations…..
The laid down foundations for the Nifty are strong if could rise to see better heights. The strength of Nifty at the 2700-2750 is displayed well but cap at the top at 100-150 points above is worrisome.
As the previous post mentioned the Nifty made a recovery to cross the resistance at 2830 level touched a high 2835.65 and comfortably closed above 2790 level at 2828.45 is a good relief sign that the bottoms are in tact at least for now. But on the contrary side the FIIs are buying since 12th in selective stock futures (373+566+371+207-26 crores) where as they are heavy short in Index futures ((-408) + (-1444) + (-470) + (-303) + (-1017)) shows that the Nifty future out look is bleak.
The Reliance lead rally to pull from the lows shall spread to other counters. The mush hyped Obama bail-out cum stimulus package can trigger rally in US may have spill over effect. The hope on US is high despite of the crumbling economy as the troubles keep darker nights long.
The important results are a head in the next week to influence the direction as their leadership lays future road map of Nifty- ITC, Rolta ,Triveni, TTML- 19th Monday.
The results of Dr Reddy, HeroHonda, MRPL, Mahidra life, Polaris, RPL and Relcap on 20th Tuesday .
The results of Biocon, HDFC, United spirits, Wipro , Yes bank and Zeel on 21st Wednesday,
The results of Bank of India, Bharti airtel, Bharat forge, Cipla, Idea, Kotak bank, NDTV, Praj, Reliance, Rel Infra, Relpower, and Voltas on 22nd Thursday.
The results of Canara Bank, Crompton Greaves, HCL Tech, IDBI, Punj Lloyd, RCOM, RNRL, Syndicate Bank ,Tanla and Tech Mahidra and Vijaya Bank on 23rdFriday .
The results of important companies like ICICI bank, NTPC, SBI, SCI, Sterlite, Sun will be announced on 24th, Saturday where as the hind Unilever on Sunday.
As the previous post mentioned the Nifty made a recovery to cross the resistance at 2830 level touched a high 2835.65 and comfortably closed above 2790 level at 2828.45 is a good relief sign that the bottoms are in tact at least for now. But on the contrary side the FIIs are buying since 12th in selective stock futures (373+566+371+207-26 crores) where as they are heavy short in Index futures ((-408) + (-1444) + (-470) + (-303) + (-1017)) shows that the Nifty future out look is bleak.
The Reliance lead rally to pull from the lows shall spread to other counters. The mush hyped Obama bail-out cum stimulus package can trigger rally in US may have spill over effect. The hope on US is high despite of the crumbling economy as the troubles keep darker nights long.
The important results are a head in the next week to influence the direction as their leadership lays future road map of Nifty- ITC, Rolta ,Triveni, TTML- 19th Monday.
The results of Dr Reddy, HeroHonda, MRPL, Mahidra life, Polaris, RPL and Relcap on 20th Tuesday .
The results of Biocon, HDFC, United spirits, Wipro , Yes bank and Zeel on 21st Wednesday,
The results of Bank of India, Bharti airtel, Bharat forge, Cipla, Idea, Kotak bank, NDTV, Praj, Reliance, Rel Infra, Relpower, and Voltas on 22nd Thursday.
The results of Canara Bank, Crompton Greaves, HCL Tech, IDBI, Punj Lloyd, RCOM, RNRL, Syndicate Bank ,Tanla and Tech Mahidra and Vijaya Bank on 23rdFriday .
The results of important companies like ICICI bank, NTPC, SBI, SCI, Sterlite, Sun will be announced on 24th, Saturday where as the hind Unilever on Sunday.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
The Global pressure…….
The markets yesterday displayed a decent rally with the support from the reliance and ADAG group stocks. The evening happiness short lived when the Europe closed. The US markets slump dragged the Asian indices down in line with the rest. The spill over effect spoiled the party but the damage is less as we yesterday added nearly 7-10% in important stocks.
The Nifty is struggling to stay above 2830 level was short lived. Now the bottoms for the last 5 trading sessions were at 2701-2750 level. This will be a good formation if Nifty could cross the 2950 level with global cues then we may head for 3600 level for sure. The disappointing happenings are surrounded the markets and will be forced to live in the hostile environment for next two quarters for sure as the new govt. after election will take time to settle down. In case a hung with no clear majority can dampen the sentiment.
Now the market buzz is that the RIL and ADAG fight for gas will end out of court settlement may improve the sentiment, which can easily set the Nifty above 3180 level.
The Nifty is to close above 2790 level to mitigate the negative news effect and rely on the future growth prospects.
The yesterday leader Reliance, today also saved Nifty from collapse despite the selling pressure. The tech giant Infosys took support at 1220 level bounced to cross 1260 level can save Nifty if it can stay above 1280-85 level. The Bharti and HUL took the Bear beating may loose some more ground before a bounce is expected. The TCS results are not spectacular but may stay above 506 level due to new orders.
The metals and the Banking sector are facing difficult time to protect their valuations. The positive point is that these will find buyers as bargain hunting making profitable.
The Global pressure…….
The markets yesterday displayed a decent rally with the support from the reliance and ADAG group stocks. The evening happiness short lived when the Europe closed. The US markets slump dragged the Asian indices down in line with the rest. The spill over effect spoiled the party but the damage is less as we yesterday added nearly 7-10% in important stocks.
The Nifty is struggling to stay above 2830 level was short lived. Now the bottoms for the last 5 trading sessions were at 2701-2750 level. This will be a good formation if Nifty could cross the 2950 level with global cues then we may head for 3600 level for sure. The disappointing happenings are surrounded the markets and will be forced to live in the hostile environment for next two quarters for sure as the new govt. after election will take time to settle down. In case a hung with no clear majority can dampen the sentiment.
Now the market buzz is that the RIL and ADAG fight for gas will end out of court settlement may improve the sentiment, which can easily set the Nifty above 3180 level.
The Nifty is to close above 2790 level to mitigate the negative news effect and rely on the future growth prospects.
The yesterday leader Reliance, today also saved Nifty from collapse despite the selling pressure. The tech giant Infosys took support at 1220 level bounced to cross 1260 level can save Nifty if it can stay above 1280-85 level. The Bharti and HUL took the Bear beating may loose some more ground before a bounce is expected. The TCS results are not spectacular but may stay above 506 level due to new orders.
The metals and the Banking sector are facing difficult time to protect their valuations. The positive point is that these will find buyers as bargain hunting making profitable.
The Nifty is struggling to stay above 2830 level was short lived. Now the bottoms for the last 5 trading sessions were at 2701-2750 level. This will be a good formation if Nifty could cross the 2950 level with global cues then we may head for 3600 level for sure. The disappointing happenings are surrounded the markets and will be forced to live in the hostile environment for next two quarters for sure as the new govt. after election will take time to settle down. In case a hung with no clear majority can dampen the sentiment.
Now the market buzz is that the RIL and ADAG fight for gas will end out of court settlement may improve the sentiment, which can easily set the Nifty above 3180 level.
The Nifty is to close above 2790 level to mitigate the negative news effect and rely on the future growth prospects.
The yesterday leader Reliance, today also saved Nifty from collapse despite the selling pressure. The tech giant Infosys took support at 1220 level bounced to cross 1260 level can save Nifty if it can stay above 1280-85 level. The Bharti and HUL took the Bear beating may loose some more ground before a bounce is expected. The TCS results are not spectacular but may stay above 506 level due to new orders.
The metals and the Banking sector are facing difficult time to protect their valuations. The positive point is that these will find buyers as bargain hunting making profitable.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Challenge for market…..
The emerging markets like India are in the nascent stage of accepting big blows and shallow market depth to absorb the Selling or Buying may cripple the strength stock markets. But the positive side of the market is a new trend is developing as “Chase for Quality”- nothing but dependable and sustainable corporate governance along with earnings.
This “CHANGE” in the paradigm to explore quality stocks may bring volatility and relaying on MNC stocks will emerge apart from supporting the proven established Corporate Houses. The quality IT stocks may get more business and the promoter worthiness will bring business and valuation as premium.
The Nifty is at the cross roads as it could face the slaughtering by Bears with various rumors. The Nifty fell from 3150 level to 2810 level due to Satyam fiasco and doubting the other published high rise accounts. The Nifty has to cross 2950 level to mitigate the damage done. The bottom fishing is good for MNC stocks to get advantage of a feel good factors circulating as if they are more sagacious and unadulterated.
The RIL is very weak and good above 1221-23 level but bundled with resistance points as scales up, immediate major resistance at 1245-51 level. The ONGC is good above 695-97 level but has support at 646-51level The ICICI bank has no tags attached to this Satyam tale but the exposure to credit cards and advances were not disclosed yet. The stock enjoys criticism and controversies corner it now and then is good above 485 level but the resistance may come at 497-98 level. Incase the low breaches 434 and close below 439 then it will face the blistered Bear beating. The SBI is good above 1275 and weak below 1240 level. The Relcap is good above 528-36 level as the Nifty inclusion is w.e.f-12th Jan.
The sudden weakness a head of this mess saved Bharti bounced back to 640 level from 610 region to save Nifty could find buyers above 658-661 level other wise the story is no different. The RCOM is good above 208 and weak bellow 195.
The DLF signals to all Bears are clear as the Buy back corned them could save if it trades above 205-203 level and the ardent Bears sell below 195. The FII are exiting the infra and construction stocks may weaken the market and it will hurt the sentiment.
There is every possibility that the GOI may come with more stringent Corporate Governance laws and powers to Independent Directors along with responsibilities.
This “CHANGE” in the paradigm to explore quality stocks may bring volatility and relaying on MNC stocks will emerge apart from supporting the proven established Corporate Houses. The quality IT stocks may get more business and the promoter worthiness will bring business and valuation as premium.
The Nifty is at the cross roads as it could face the slaughtering by Bears with various rumors. The Nifty fell from 3150 level to 2810 level due to Satyam fiasco and doubting the other published high rise accounts. The Nifty has to cross 2950 level to mitigate the damage done. The bottom fishing is good for MNC stocks to get advantage of a feel good factors circulating as if they are more sagacious and unadulterated.
The RIL is very weak and good above 1221-23 level but bundled with resistance points as scales up, immediate major resistance at 1245-51 level. The ONGC is good above 695-97 level but has support at 646-51level The ICICI bank has no tags attached to this Satyam tale but the exposure to credit cards and advances were not disclosed yet. The stock enjoys criticism and controversies corner it now and then is good above 485 level but the resistance may come at 497-98 level. Incase the low breaches 434 and close below 439 then it will face the blistered Bear beating. The SBI is good above 1275 and weak below 1240 level. The Relcap is good above 528-36 level as the Nifty inclusion is w.e.f-12th Jan.
The sudden weakness a head of this mess saved Bharti bounced back to 640 level from 610 region to save Nifty could find buyers above 658-661 level other wise the story is no different. The RCOM is good above 208 and weak bellow 195.
The DLF signals to all Bears are clear as the Buy back corned them could save if it trades above 205-203 level and the ardent Bears sell below 195. The FII are exiting the infra and construction stocks may weaken the market and it will hurt the sentiment.
There is every possibility that the GOI may come with more stringent Corporate Governance laws and powers to Independent Directors along with responsibilities.
An article in the Business-Standard covered as……
Merrill, IL&FS sold shares in nick of time
BS Reporter / Mumbai January 11, 2009, 0:41 IST
Days before B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, a handful of financial
services companies, including DSP Merrill Lynch, IL&FS Financial Services
and Deutsche Bank’s non-banking finance company, sold Satyam Computer Services
shares pledged with them. IL&FS Trust Company, which was warehousing them on behalf of the lenders, permitted the lenders to sell the shares.
According to information available from the National Stock Exchange, IL&FS Trust
Company sold 14.89 million shares between December 24 and January 2. On December 24, 2008, IL&FS Trust Company permitted sale of 6.05 million shares at Rs 120.09 each, while another 4.41 million shares were sold at Rs 139.83 five days
later. The trust let go of a further 4.43 million shares at Rs 176 on January 2,
2009 – five days before Raju’s revelations……………………
Challenge for market…..
The nascent stage of accepting big blows and shallow market depth to absorb the Selling or Buying may cripple the strength Indian stock market. But the positive side of the market is a new trend is developing as “Chase for Quality” nothing but dependable and sustainable corporate governance along with earnings.
This “CHANGE” in the paradigm to explore quality stocks may bring volatility and relaying on MNC stocks will emerge apart from supporting the proven established Corporate Houses. The quality IT stocks may get more business and the promoter worthiness will bring business and valuation as premium.
The Nifty is at the cross roads as it could face the slaughtering by Bears with various rumors. The Nifty fell from 3150 level to 2810 level due to Satyam fiasco and doubting the other published high rise accounts. The Nifty has to cross 2950 level to mitigate the damage done. The bottom fishing is good for MNC stocks to get advantage of a feel good factors circulating as if they are more sagacious and unadulterated.
The RIL is very weak and good above 1221-23 level but bundled with resistance points as scales up, immediate major resistance at 1245-51 level. The ONGC is good above 695-97 level but has support at 646-51level
The ICICI bank has no tags attached to this Satyam tale but the exposure to credit cards and advances were not disclosed yet. The stock enjoys criticism and controversies corner it now and then is good above 485 level but the resistance may come at 497-98 level. Incase the low breaches 434 and close below 439 then it will face the blistered Bear beating. The SBI is good above 1275 and weak below 1240 level. The Relcap is good above 528-36 level as the Nifty inclusion is w.e.f-12th Jan.
The sudden weakness a head of this mess saved Bharti bounced back to 640 level from 610 region to save Nifty could find buyers above 658-661 level other wise the story is no different. The RCOM is good above 208 and weak bellow 195.
The DLF signals to all Bears are clear as the Buy back corned them could save if it trades above 205-203 level and the ardent Bears sell below 195.
The FII are exiting the infra and construction stocks may weaken the market and it will hurt the sentiment. There is every possibility that the GOI may come with more stringent Corporate Governance laws and powers to Independent Directors along with responsibilities.
An article in the Business-Standard covered as……
Merrill, IL&FS sold shares in nick of time
BS Reporter / Mumbai January 11, 2009, 0:41 IST
Days before B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, a handful of financial services companies, including DSP Merrill Lynch, IL&FS Financial Services and Deutsche Bank’s non-banking finance company, sold Satyam Computer Services shares pledged with them.
IL&FS Trust Company, which was warehousing them on behalf of the lenders, permitted the lenders to sell the shares.
According to information available from the National Stock Exchange, IL&FS Trust Company sold 14.89 million shares between December 24 and January 2. On December 24, 2008, IL&FS Trust Company permitted sale of 6.05 million shares at Rs 120.09 each, while another 4.41 million shares were sold at Rs 139.83 five days later. The trust let go of a further 4.43 million shares at Rs 176 on January 2, 2009 – five days before Raju’s revelations……………………
An article in the Business-Standard covered as……
Merrill, IL&FS sold shares in nick of time
BS Reporter / Mumbai January 11, 2009, 0:41 IST
Days before B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, a handful of financial services companies, including DSP Merrill Lynch, IL&FS Financial Services and Deutsche Bank’s non-banking finance company, sold Satyam Computer Services shares pledged with them.
IL&FS Trust Company, which was warehousing them on behalf of the lenders, permitted the lenders to sell the shares.
According to information available from the National Stock Exchange, IL&FS Trust Company sold 14.89 million shares between December 24 and January 2. On December 24, 2008, IL&FS Trust Company permitted sale of 6.05 million shares at Rs 120.09 each, while another 4.41 million shares were sold at Rs 139.83 five days later. The trust let go of a further 4.43 million shares at Rs 176 on January 2, 2009 – five days before Raju’s revelations……………………
Saturday, January 10, 2009
May happen again…..
The IT industry is grappling with difficult economic environment due to it over dependence on US and Europe was forcibly thrown into more troubled waters due to Satyam fiasco. The Corporate IT tycoons of first generation shying with ignominy due to this episode and their survival will be more difficult with checks and balances.
None acted with responsibility-The company regulators, top level “lapse of vigilance” at the Foreign Exchange inflow, the lending Banks, the leeway handling of accounts by the PWC and above all the analysts of FII, DII & MF heads with mindless heads made Ramalinga Raju to ditch his company and share holders.
The greed & power to rule the corporate sector putting pressure to “perform by any means” is fast spreading to the developing countries. These kinds of manipulation are very common in DevelopeD countries how ever strict there are aftermath. Here this case is only a sample of the lot in the making and many more will be un-earthed once the graveyard is open for excavation.
The kind of financial irregularities happened at Satyam may happen in other first generation companies if the regulators lay their hands and meticulous eyes to nab the “white-collar crime” culprits. The style of publishing inflated numbers in the balance sheet shall be scrutinized thoroughly and put them behind bars to send a strong message not necessarily to the rest of the world but to these “Financial Vultures” not only eat their birth child company but also cripple the nation’s image and economy.
On Friday the Infra & reality stocks tumbled were finding difficult to trace the bottom as the slide is so massive that no body could understand what happened to who but the whole trauma of buyers was shifted in minutes to sellers when the management of DLF “buy back” was heavily initiated. The stock fell on rumors that the CFO sold more than one lakh shares, like a snow avalanche slide the DLF fell from 225 to 144 and bounced with vengeance to again 220-25 level. The DLF was bought by the promoters to a tune of 17.5 lakh shares at an average price of Rs 193.40 and the total shares bought till date is only 21.4 lakhs.
The Satyam promoters could sell their shares by pledging with IL &FS and others much above 150 per share as the Satyam shares were sold more than 2.14 crore shares when the average price is above 175 by the lenders intimated to Exchanges on 2nd Jan, 1.029 crores of shares sold and intimated to NSE on 6th Jan and again 85.3 lakh share sold and intimated on 8th Jan-09. The poor investors hoping some miracle will happen and turn their fortune are still holding by praying the almighty. The people who burned their energy to build the empire for intelligent master mind rouge are left to their fate called 50,000+ employees looking for help/ recognition for their abilities and service.
The employees who sensed the fall sold their shares- on 22-12-2008 Manisha Mehta-5200, V. Murali-10,000, A.S.Murty-19000, V. Murali-20,000; on 17-12-2008 M.SriRam-1000, A.S.Murty-21,000. On 16-12-2008 Satyam announced the Board decision of buying Maytas.
None acted with responsibility-The company regulators, top level “lapse of vigilance” at the Foreign Exchange inflow, the lending Banks, the leeway handling of accounts by the PWC and above all the analysts of FII, DII & MF heads with mindless heads made Ramalinga Raju to ditch his company and share holders.
The greed & power to rule the corporate sector putting pressure to “perform by any means” is fast spreading to the developing countries. These kinds of manipulation are very common in DevelopeD countries how ever strict there are aftermath. Here this case is only a sample of the lot in the making and many more will be un-earthed once the graveyard is open for excavation.
The kind of financial irregularities happened at Satyam may happen in other first generation companies if the regulators lay their hands and meticulous eyes to nab the “white-collar crime” culprits. The style of publishing inflated numbers in the balance sheet shall be scrutinized thoroughly and put them behind bars to send a strong message not necessarily to the rest of the world but to these “Financial Vultures” not only eat their birth child company but also cripple the nation’s image and economy.
On Friday the Infra & reality stocks tumbled were finding difficult to trace the bottom as the slide is so massive that no body could understand what happened to who but the whole trauma of buyers was shifted in minutes to sellers when the management of DLF “buy back” was heavily initiated. The stock fell on rumors that the CFO sold more than one lakh shares, like a snow avalanche slide the DLF fell from 225 to 144 and bounced with vengeance to again 220-25 level. The DLF was bought by the promoters to a tune of 17.5 lakh shares at an average price of Rs 193.40 and the total shares bought till date is only 21.4 lakhs.
The Satyam promoters could sell their shares by pledging with IL &FS and others much above 150 per share as the Satyam shares were sold more than 2.14 crore shares when the average price is above 175 by the lenders intimated to Exchanges on 2nd Jan, 1.029 crores of shares sold and intimated to NSE on 6th Jan and again 85.3 lakh share sold and intimated on 8th Jan-09. The poor investors hoping some miracle will happen and turn their fortune are still holding by praying the almighty. The people who burned their energy to build the empire for intelligent master mind rouge are left to their fate called 50,000+ employees looking for help/ recognition for their abilities and service.
The employees who sensed the fall sold their shares- on 22-12-2008 Manisha Mehta-5200, V. Murali-10,000, A.S.Murty-19000, V. Murali-20,000; on 17-12-2008 M.SriRam-1000, A.S.Murty-21,000. On 16-12-2008 Satyam announced the Board decision of buying Maytas.
Thursday, January 08, 2009
THE UNANSWERED…………
The New CEO Ram has everything but no to that matters most- “The Information”.
The markets shall face the "test of the depth" to face the selling pressure incase it unwarranted. The stock markets across the globe live in a hostile situation where “The analyst gives wrong calls, the auditors certify any thing for a fee, the promoters publish cooked results and deviated misinformation’s, the fund houses buy with vision of “associations developed” in the nights but the poor retail investor invests the hard earnings for a lifeline of future. At the end of the day the retail investor looses every thing for a toss.
The markets shall face the "test of the depth" to face the selling pressure incase it unwarranted. The stock markets across the globe live in a hostile situation where “The analyst gives wrong calls, the auditors certify any thing for a fee, the promoters publish cooked results and deviated misinformation’s, the fund houses buy with vision of “associations developed” in the nights but the poor retail investor invests the hard earnings for a lifeline of future. At the end of the day the retail investor looses every thing for a toss.
QUESTIONS ???????.........
The unanswered questions are opening in Satyam saga as flood water falls from the dam once the gates are opened for free flow.
The markets were stunned by the financial scandal at Satyam and were surprised to accept the truth of “ALL LIES” by Raju.
The market fell heavily as the built up open position was huge that to in the absence of FII holiday it was built to hand over at higher prices was belied due to the un-expected fiasco at Satyam. The important FII investors resorted for selling at the day’s low price fore tells that they are serious to sell INDIA. The experts are revealing that there are more companies to be micro-scoped for facts rather than accepting.
In case Nifty fails to cross 2957-60 and the low breaches 2812-16 level, then the serious consequences are built in the system. The big names of Indian industry will be doubted for sure and their current valuations will be corrected accordingly.
The markets were stunned by the financial scandal at Satyam and were surprised to accept the truth of “ALL LIES” by Raju.
The market fell heavily as the built up open position was huge that to in the absence of FII holiday it was built to hand over at higher prices was belied due to the un-expected fiasco at Satyam. The important FII investors resorted for selling at the day’s low price fore tells that they are serious to sell INDIA. The experts are revealing that there are more companies to be micro-scoped for facts rather than accepting.
In case Nifty fails to cross 2957-60 and the low breaches 2812-16 level, then the serious consequences are built in the system. The big names of Indian industry will be doubted for sure and their current valuations will be corrected accordingly.
….The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The
earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were archived but the up move
could be a result of short covering. Now the markets are in bull grip as the
momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god
above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level.
The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level
despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an
off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serious correction of
20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead
the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
…..The SBI, ONGC, Bharti and Reliance are becoming weak but just moving up with unease. The Infosys results and the fiasco of Satyam can impact the sentiment. The Reliance is good above and can touch 1330-1350 range but the resistance at 1372 is crucial.The ONGC is one of the weakest face resistances at 693-97 level and at 717-20 level.The SBI is the best chart to observe has resistance at 1380-83 level but has good support at 1218-22 level. The Bharti is being in the accumulation phase. The
well drawn boundaries for it are 749 at the higher side and the 650-60 level is
at the lower-side. The DLF made a second trial to stay above 305 but the real
test it faces at 326-30 level but a clear bottom building is happening at 220-16
level. The immediate support level existed at 260-66 level. In view of the RCOM
plans and the future 3G auction it built a bottom at 187-93 level and the second
level in the process at 221-226.
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
The cemented move…
There was no change in the economic out look of the globe or any country in specific but the stocks are moving North. It is the beauty of the markets that it behaves in style and unique. For those who argue the ticker will be side lined to curse the fate or to make a point of discussion but the ticker will journey the designed course irrespective of the tag that was attached “bear market rally/huge short covering/ bull market in the making”.
The slow economic growth was not fully discounted across the globe. The Indian markets were no exception but the rally triggered after the expiry will take Nifty to 3280 level because of the crude hardening. The rise crude prices will strengthen the RIL, ONGC and RPL. The RIL may start production of KG basin resources.
The readers might have observed the Cement companies move that benefited the most in the Stimulus package-2. The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were achied but the up move could be a result of short covering.
Now the markets are in bull grip as the momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level. The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serios correction of 20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
The slow economic growth was not fully discounted across the globe. The Indian markets were no exception but the rally triggered after the expiry will take Nifty to 3280 level because of the crude hardening. The rise crude prices will strengthen the RIL, ONGC and RPL. The RIL may start production of KG basin resources.
The readers might have observed the Cement companies move that benefited the most in the Stimulus package-2. The markets are enjoying the short covering support above 3080 level. The earlier suggested levels for ICICI Bank and Relcap were achied but the up move could be a result of short covering.
Now the markets are in bull grip as the momentum was not dried to fall. The Nifty is good above 3100 level and RIL god above 1329-31 level. The SBI is good above 1350 and weak below 1330-26 level. The sudden change in the direction of Bharti to 650 level from its 720 level despite the 24.41 lakh shares acquiring by Indian Continent Investment Ltd in an off market deal. In case Bharti falls below 610 then a serios correction of 20-25% on the cards. The NTPC, ONGC, ITC, Bharti, and Cipla are likely to lead the fall incase Nifty closes below 3030 level.
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
The test of stimulation…..
The test of stimulation…..
Due to net failure at my end failed to publish but for record now….
The Nifty is good above 2860 and likely to stay above for some time. The immediate bad news is remote and the positive news keep flowing till the Nifty crosses 3250 and touch 3280 for stop-losses get triggered to clear the weak hands. In case the markets doesn’t find the required bottom push to scale up but still not weak for a free fall as the expectations from Obama is high. So the markets will swing between
2700-3100 to the weak results show and hopes of miracles from the future.
The local news will be adverse as the Govt. is preparing to put pressure on the PAK and their counter “war drama”. The PM will be busy in tackling the external/curbing terrorism could put the economic reforms on the backburner. The political equations will start demanding the “time & attention” as the April-May may heats up the capital.The SBI, ONGC, Bharti and Reliance are becoming weak but just moving up with unease. The Infosys results and the fiasco of Satyam can impact the sentiment.The Reliance is good above and can touch 1330-1350 range but the resistance at 1372 is crucial. The ONGC is one of the
weakest face resistances at 693-97 level and at 717-20 level.
The SBI is the best chart to observe has resistance at 1380-83 level but has good support at 1218-22 level.
The Bharti is being in the accumulation phase. The well drawn
boundaries for it are 749 at the higher side and the 650-60 level is at the
lower-side.The DLF made a second trial to stay above 305 but the real test it faces at 326-30 level but a clear bottom building is happening at 220-16 level. The immediate support level existed at 260-66 level.
In view of the RCOM plans and the future 3G auction it built a bottom at 187-93 level and the second level in the process at 221-226.
Sunday, January 04, 2009
The challenge ahead…..
The govt. announced stimulus package-2 was short of satisfaction as there was more room left to do and the govt. announced that the doors were closed for now till the new financial accounting year begins. So the domestic financial and major policy measures are announced except the 3G auction. The international news and the global indices will be in the drivers’ seat as the new govt. in US will determine the next course of action.
The RBI announced policy measures will carry a positive start on Monday unless the Asian markets open deep in red. The banking sector has been waiting and the rates cuts were already factored in the bank stocks. This can be seen as the HDFC has failed to cross the resistance at 1560 level and the SBI took long time to trade above 1335-39 level. The reality sector though raised on big hopes were belied as the 20 lakh bracket was not raised to 30 lakhs is a big set back as the demand and profitability was in and above that 30 lakhs. The Monday trades can change the direction but for now the banks may look South.
The package has unilaterally given benefit to cement companies and to the logistic sector that can afford to buy. The IIFCL will spur the demand but not immediately. The IDFC and PFC are cautious on the demand as the industry is not jubilant to spend on BOLT projects.
The duty cuts on steel products have negative impact on the sagging industry. The reality sector that uses longs gets the benefit and will form a cap on raising the prices due to demand revival by the steel industry.
The overall balancing act by the Govt. will keep the Nifty crawling but not a break-out shoot up with this stimulus and monetary measures.
The RBI announced policy measures will carry a positive start on Monday unless the Asian markets open deep in red. The banking sector has been waiting and the rates cuts were already factored in the bank stocks. This can be seen as the HDFC has failed to cross the resistance at 1560 level and the SBI took long time to trade above 1335-39 level. The reality sector though raised on big hopes were belied as the 20 lakh bracket was not raised to 30 lakhs is a big set back as the demand and profitability was in and above that 30 lakhs. The Monday trades can change the direction but for now the banks may look South.
The package has unilaterally given benefit to cement companies and to the logistic sector that can afford to buy. The IIFCL will spur the demand but not immediately. The IDFC and PFC are cautious on the demand as the industry is not jubilant to spend on BOLT projects.
The duty cuts on steel products have negative impact on the sagging industry. The reality sector that uses longs gets the benefit and will form a cap on raising the prices due to demand revival by the steel industry.
The overall balancing act by the Govt. will keep the Nifty crawling but not a break-out shoot up with this stimulus and monetary measures.
The stimulus too…
The govt. announced stimulus package-2 has also failed to lure the industry, so will be the market. The Govt. is looking for a long-term sustainable action where as the markets are interested in immediate benefits to see the sentiment revived. The strong hands are interested in long gestation period of rise with intermittent sharp rally where the reverse is true with the small investor.
The RBI announced a rate cut of 50 bps in CRR and 100bps for Repo and Reverse Repo to release nearly 20,000 crores in to the system. The GOI simultaneously announced liberalized ECB norms that can benefit the big reality players and some measures in customs duty to curb the free flow of cement from the neighboring countries. This will benefit the cement companies those were strapped to a fixed price for more than 2½ years. This will have a counter effect on the construction companies already surviving on thin margins were given credit but not the profits.
The real worry for now to next 3 quarters is the demand contraction. The seriousness of economic worries will hit the head lines when the demand contraction in the domestic markets face. The Indian economy is growing on the export fillip despite a large domestic demand existing. Now the challenge is that the exports will be seriously getting affected days to come and the supply glut will impact the purchasing interest of the consumer.
The net-net the Indian economy will see troubled months a head but this period can be considered as a “capacity building opportunity” by the big industry houses.
The RBI announced a rate cut of 50 bps in CRR and 100bps for Repo and Reverse Repo to release nearly 20,000 crores in to the system. The GOI simultaneously announced liberalized ECB norms that can benefit the big reality players and some measures in customs duty to curb the free flow of cement from the neighboring countries. This will benefit the cement companies those were strapped to a fixed price for more than 2½ years. This will have a counter effect on the construction companies already surviving on thin margins were given credit but not the profits.
The real worry for now to next 3 quarters is the demand contraction. The seriousness of economic worries will hit the head lines when the demand contraction in the domestic markets face. The Indian economy is growing on the export fillip despite a large domestic demand existing. Now the challenge is that the exports will be seriously getting affected days to come and the supply glut will impact the purchasing interest of the consumer.
The net-net the Indian economy will see troubled months a head but this period can be considered as a “capacity building opportunity” by the big industry houses.
The stimulus too…
The govt. announced stimulus package-2 has also failed to lure the industry, so will be the market. The Govt. is looking for a long-term sustainable action where as the markets are interested in immediate benefits to see the sentiment revived. The strong hands are interested in long gestation period of rise with intermittent sharp rally where the reverse is true with the small investor.
The RBI announced a rate cut of 50 bps in CRR and 100bps for Repo and Reverse Repo to release nearly 20,000 crores in to the system. The GOI simultaneously announced liberalized ECB norms that can benefit the big reality players and some measures in customs duty to curb the free flow of cement from the neighboring countries. This will benefit the cement companies those were strapped to a fixed price for more than 2½ years. This will have a counter effect on the construction companies already surviving on thin margins were given credit but not the profits.
The real worry for now to next 3 quarters is the demand contraction. The seriousness of economic worries will hit the head lines when the demand contraction in the domestic markets face. The Indian economy is growing on the export fillip despite a large domestic demand existing. Now the challenge is that the exports will be seriously getting affected days to come and the supply glut will impact the purchasing interest of the consumer.
The net-net the Indian economy will see troubled months a head but this period can be considered as a “capacity building opportunity” by the big industry houses.
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