Is the worst OVER?

The investors in India are living with most terrible days in the past 25 days and likely to live in the dreadful future until Sep-07 results. The nightmares are very likely to continue unless the Nifty trades above 4280-85 levels and the low shall not touch 4145 level in case of such positive move. The Nifty touching new high at this point in time looks very bleak but sure it crosses in Jan-March, 2008.
The sectors are becoming weak day by day and day after day due to sub-prime and local political uncertainties. The left wants the people should forget the unpleasant, untimely uproar they have created. Most of the scrips are out of bull grip and now the damage erased the chances to cross the new high. It needs to re-look at the current valuations in the light of future growth prospects and the policy liberalizations. In case the 123-Nuclear fails to gets clearance from political hurdles, it is very unlikely that the further FII in-flow will be at lower pace and our markets dry up in 6-9 months period that reflects with lack-luster stock performance.
The above condition is bearing 15-20% to happen; the opportunity to invest in India for the overseas firms is the heaven that they can least afford to loose.
The strengths of India are many to elaborate; the ever increasing educated youth and the wide geographical spread with large coastline, forests and mineral rich hills coverage are the unexplored jewels of India that can absorb several FIIs, huge amount of Investments with assured return on capital. So those who have the perspective investment horizon of 3 years can reap lots of appreciation in their investments. But the traders who are long may need to work out their cost in this turmoil season.
No net connection for last 3 days. Stock specific levels tomorrow.

Poly-tricks Play now?

As posted Nifty failed to open above 4235, in fact high could not cross 4239 is a weak signal and drifted as the time reaches to closing.
The stocks are not chased but are available at throwaway prices. When the street dogs bark on stocks up move the retail investor wakes up and wait until the wealth ruins to dust in a fall market. The important noticeable happening in the stock market is “ the retail investor is the last person to enter in a bull move and the final lot to exit in a bear move”. The markets are finding the bottoms for support. So wait till the formation takes place or buy in 20%, 30% and 40% for every 100 points fall for Nifty. The 10% will be the reserve for buying in a bull move after the second level of purchased price crossed.
For today, the Nifty shall not trade below 4021-18 levels to take a bear trap up move. The Bhel has support at 1541 and Bharti at 783-86 level, L&T at 2151-53 level. The RIL bottom has support at 1721-23, ONGC good for long above 809, ICICI has support at 811-09 and SBI has support at 1414-1416 and shall not breach 1380 level for a market come back immediately. Every-body might have forgot Idea, has support at 103-05 and V.G. support at 96-98 range, don’t forget to take delivery.

The bottoms need support?

As posted, the Nifty neither could cross 4265 nor could trade above 4235. This is not a bad sign but need some strength to go up in future. The RIL could stay above 1781, Bharti above 821 but the low of ONGC and RCOM need to be improved.
The Govt. is in dilemma but posing brave face to the press. The Left parties are serious because they have to do their opposing and supporting job.
The US markets are consolidating; Asian markets are trading in Green. We are likely to open high and may continue the journey.
The stocks need to advance further so that the bottom support will be strong to face greater shocks. The Nifty has to cross 4375 level as early as possible.
Today Nifty has to open above 4235 level and high shall cross 4279 to believe the up. The RIL has to cross 1840 and trade above 1826.
The supports to RCOM at 493, Tata Steel at 563, RIL at 1791, ONGC at 809, Bhart at 820 and for BHEL 1541-45 levels. The software stocks may cover their losses today and Satyam may cross 446-48 level and Wipro may cross 484 level.
On 21st July posted about the Fertiliser stocks likely to move further and even now they are cheap if one can wait for 6 months.

Now long but how LONG?.

For today the long is good for the traders but the question is how long longs are valid in this market and that to at this critical time of political turmoil. No doubt INDIA opens for investment destination for the world but the hiccups has to be accepted.
The Nifty is likely to face resistance at 4332-35 level and at 4390-4385 levels as the things stands for now.
The left has gone far more distance than they can come easily to save their face. Now Cong. has to accept the responsibility to save them. Both parties know that they are sailing in the same boat but seats are placed at far end. So any damage from this situation can sink them, but trying to draw attention but yield no concrete results.
The good picks for next 6 months can come only when Nifty trades above 4265 and low above 4239, until then buy and sell. The scrips also has to form good bottom- RIL trades above good supports level 1685, better if it could trade above 1773-71 level; Bharti has to trade above 821, low above 809; ONGC above 839 low above 821; RCOM has to trade above 521 and low above 506. The scrips were un-ethically battered during the previous 10 trading sessions. So it takes even 6-8 trading sessions before they come into a systematic movement.