The Reserve Bank of India came forward to make a positive decision to cut the interest rates, CRR by 100 bps, repo rate by 50 bps. The RBI took the bold decision to cut CRR for injecting nearly Rs 1 Lakh crores in to the system.
This support to system can build confidence and ease the pressure on the stock markets due to the impending MF and FMPs redemption pressure. The Govt has recognized the slow down in the industrial activity especially in manufacturing sector. The agricultural commodity led industries like, Tractors & automobile, Textiles and Sugar sector season has begun but the liquidity crunch will impact the farmers that could be very costly while in an election year. The woes of reality sector due to the tight loan availability not only impact the builders but the big un-organised labourers and the related down the line industries. These steps will through a positive signal that the govt. at the helm is for the masses and willing to listen to the voices of the industry.
Saturday, November 01, 2008
An effort to remind once again….
An effort to remind once again….
In my earlier post titled… The BEST chance to overcome…dt 25-08-08…
The markets are consolidating at this stage where the Nifty made some anchor at 4200-4300 level.
The markets very likely to move further to 5100 level if it trades above 4500 level (with out touching 4080-4100 level) which is very crucial resistance to cross, other wise the markets likely to see one more deep correction that could take back first to 3500 level, later to 3180-3130 level, if worst case developed then to a level that was available at 2940-3040 range, came in the last week of July-06.
The July, 2006 levels may not come to Nifty as it undergone a series of changes in the composition, higher capitalization stocks like DLF, UNITECH, Power Grid, now the Rpower being included by 10th Sep-08.
The Indian markets are taking the earlier lead while falling and even in the rise, but the global crisis may not let it move in unidirectional up move. At the current valuations, the age old thumb rule method of identifying the stocks like P/E is still high at 18.25 as per NSE, when compared to the historic movements.
In my earlier post titled… The BEST chance to overcome…dt 25-08-08…
The markets are consolidating at this stage where the Nifty made some anchor at 4200-4300 level.
The markets very likely to move further to 5100 level if it trades above 4500 level (with out touching 4080-4100 level) which is very crucial resistance to cross, other wise the markets likely to see one more deep correction that could take back first to 3500 level, later to 3180-3130 level, if worst case developed then to a level that was available at 2940-3040 range, came in the last week of July-06.
The July, 2006 levels may not come to Nifty as it undergone a series of changes in the composition, higher capitalization stocks like DLF, UNITECH, Power Grid, now the Rpower being included by 10th Sep-08.
The Indian markets are taking the earlier lead while falling and even in the rise, but the global crisis may not let it move in unidirectional up move. At the current valuations, the age old thumb rule method of identifying the stocks like P/E is still high at 18.25 as per NSE, when compared to the historic movements.
Today the Economic Times covered with a title as ….. Nifty hit by poor choice of members (1 Nov, 2008, 0149 hrs IST,Apurv Gupta & Krishna Kant, ET Bureau)…..reads…..
The frequent changes in benchmark indexes and the inclusion of stocks like Reliance Power, Suzlon, RPL, Unitech and DLF while at the same time excluding large companies with a stable earnings and dividend record have brought the benchmark index down to its knees.
Experts say that in such situations, where the index has crashed due to an abnormal fall in certain stocks, it becomes meaningless for investors to look at the index levels or compare its ratios such as PE with indices in other countries, especially when some of the index constituents have no earnings at all to talk about……………….
………. For example, if we take the same constituents of the Nifty as at the beginning of 2006, the index would have been ruling higher by about 230 points from its current level. In fact, the Nifty would not have even fallen below 2929 points compared with its actual close on Wednesday at 2697 pts. Similarly, if the Nifty composition had been the same as in early 2007, the index would not have broken through the 2900-mark…………..
Friday, October 31, 2008
No fundamental change…
The markets are in troubled state as every body knows but now the governments coming forward to take part in rescue measures. This is offering a fill-up but don’t buy for the immediate gains of further 20% but for long term it could be one of the chances offered.
The markets are temporarily bottomed out by all means but the buying at the lower levels has not happened enough to hold the bottom. So either there should be a huge buying or the price shall make a journey above the resistance levels. The either case is pending.
The Nifty is good above 2600 as first support and it shall not trade below the 2480 level but the resistance at 2880-95 level then it will go to 3200 level. The markets will considered stabilized when the RIL is above 1380-85 level and the ONGC is above 785-91 level.
For today the Nifty is good for long so long it trades above 2716-25, the low shall not breach the support of 2622-18 level but the ONGC results effect and the RCOM results will through some guidance to the markets as the earnings pressure is mounting even though much was discounted.
The markets are temporarily bottomed out by all means but the buying at the lower levels has not happened enough to hold the bottom. So either there should be a huge buying or the price shall make a journey above the resistance levels. The either case is pending.
The Nifty is good above 2600 as first support and it shall not trade below the 2480 level but the resistance at 2880-95 level then it will go to 3200 level. The markets will considered stabilized when the RIL is above 1380-85 level and the ONGC is above 785-91 level.
For today the Nifty is good for long so long it trades above 2716-25, the low shall not breach the support of 2622-18 level but the ONGC results effect and the RCOM results will through some guidance to the markets as the earnings pressure is mounting even though much was discounted.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Sunday, October 26, 2008
The strength of FIIs………
The financial strength of FIIs was shown on the Dalal Street for the last 20 trading sessions. The bloggers, the analysts and the domestic fund managers are kept on telling that there is nothing wrong with our economy. The need of the hour and the fact at this point in time is the global sentiment and the price erosion. The stock prices will take their course based on the fundamental strength of the economy and the ability to tap the available resource by the corporate sector.
The technicals can be collaborated after the mayhem but very few can tell the exact extent and the length of time to complete a cycle of buying or selling. Like the natural disaster which can be sensed, predicted but cannot be controlled, the same way the stock market movement that based on the instant psychology of the market participants. It cannot be controlled but can be discussed and argued after wards. The best thing is to avert the damage is kept away from it.
The cracking signs are known to many, when the Nifty breached the 4200 level one can get out of the delivery one more chance when the Nifty fallen below 3930-3860 level. Now many investors were trapped and eager to sell now, a situation known to many and willing to take a call to exit but the opportunity is closed.
The Stock market investment is nothing but prudent thinking and quick decision making but not confused hasty management of the worsen situation.
The technicals can be collaborated after the mayhem but very few can tell the exact extent and the length of time to complete a cycle of buying or selling. Like the natural disaster which can be sensed, predicted but cannot be controlled, the same way the stock market movement that based on the instant psychology of the market participants. It cannot be controlled but can be discussed and argued after wards. The best thing is to avert the damage is kept away from it.
The cracking signs are known to many, when the Nifty breached the 4200 level one can get out of the delivery one more chance when the Nifty fallen below 3930-3860 level. Now many investors were trapped and eager to sell now, a situation known to many and willing to take a call to exit but the opportunity is closed.
The Stock market investment is nothing but prudent thinking and quick decision making but not confused hasty management of the worsen situation.
The un-mind FULL rampage
The markets world over reeling under severe damage and debris of distress due to the financial tsunami. There is mercy missions for the rescue help to save affected with humanity but the investors are not getting at least the much required first aid to save from collapse on death bed. The regulators are worrying for the past mistakes committed rather than the presence of mind to avert extent of the damage.There is n-number of people ventured to buy at lower levels as they are right by all reasons except the market commandments.
It is not the LOWEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to BUY is very important.
It is not the LOWEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to BUY is very important.
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