Can the up move sustained?

As posted Nifty touched 4428+, SBI strong above 1603 touched 1652, RCOM crossed 554, Tata steel stayed above 654 range, gave good returns to buyers. The realty sectors got good support from investors. Nifty sustained the up move with the support from all sectors especially capital goods, the banks and metals.
The challenge now is to see the immediate support levels shall not be melted as they formed with double bottom support. The nuclear 1-2-3 is good sign for bilateral relations and economic ties with USA.
The concern on technical front is the drag on Nifty by auto & tech weights, Bharti, ICICI bank and Reliance down ward moves building nervousness. The banks move relatively reached to complacency levels is a threat to the upward move of Nifty. The mid-caps will out perform in the coming up move, as the future is very promising to them. The Monday move is very crucial to the markets and should stay above 4373 and any down ward move will be serious that could wipe out at least 250 points.

Buy the out performers?

Stocks cannot advance in any market in a single direction from higher to even more, the beauty of the markets is people book profit at their satisfactory levels are reached other wise strong hands shake the market to see the wear holding sold at the lower prices so that they can garner the opportunity.
The fall could not shake the bottoms of IDFC, still trading above 126, Idea above 121, the IDBI can be accumulated up to 98 the best place bulls give full support. The Bhel recovery, L& T ABB & HDFC power to face the bears force and many good stocks advanced from their earlier levels- Kotak bank and SBI.
It is very common phenomenon that the retail investor book profit in those stocks that out perform the market and wait in the laggards even though the person understands the loss is looming/ stock is sleeping. I request the viewers to reverse the process even it is painful to book loss.
The world is mixed responding locally, now we are likely to move up as the scrips took reasonable support at the bottom. The RIL good above 1821, stop loss at 1803, SBI above 1603 stop loss at 1586, RCOM good above 536, stop loss at 530, Tata steel good above 639 stop loss at 632. The market moves up if Nifty crosses 4373 in the first half an hour, then 4426-29 can be reached.The mid caps like Moserbaer, Praj Ind and Punj lloyd will advance. The reality sector will find bargain buyers. Spice telecom and Idea are good for long-term bets.

The hope survives with global green!

The global green makes us happy as the carnage made many surprised and the pull back can bring/hold the retail investors in the market.
There is no need to get panic unless a trader who lives on the ruminants. The trades create volumes and volatility grind the sweat, where as the investor let the blood to flow on the streets in these times.
It is clearly a buying opportunity to an investor but as a matter of fact most retail investor buy at the top/high and sell at the bottom blaming the market as it has done the unrecoverable loss. Instead if the investor buys after a considerable fall and incase of further fall it is always good that averaging can help the most.
Now the markets take two to three days to settle. The reality and banks under perform. The power, energy and telecom sectors outperform in the next leg of up move.

Need to press panic button?.

The answer is certainly “no”. The technical analysts, the viewers of this blog might now that the fall could be massive and the levels expected yet to come. So why this cry?- the answer could be the speed and steep fall occurred without warning to many but not to the readers as I clearly stated on "The bears are making in………roads?.… The volatility is not because of the expiry of the July but the preparation for a deep cut on the face of bulls by the bears".

As posted, RIL came to 1791, we expected 1785, ITC in bear grip until it trades below 169.
No need to get panic until RIL trades above 1711-09, SBI trades above 1435-39, RCOM trades above 491, Tata steel trades above 585 and Bharti trades above 806-09 levels. So wait for the right opportunity and start accumulating in the blue chips.

Any way who was trapped?

The markets all over the world were spread by red with small spots of green. As we have seen the run-up is to eliminate the retail shorts and bring some faith to them to hold their rest of their longs along with fresh averages in the long side.
Now the Nifty is strong above 4503, good support at 4493-91 level. In case it trades below the levels will become stop-loss point.
The RIL weak below 1891 and likely to trade below 1785 in future, SBI good above 1608-06, ONGC in trading range good above 936 weak below 909, RCOM strong above 563-65 weak below 553, Tata steel weak below 669, Rel cap good above 1224, Bharti good above 918-21, Satyam weak below 481 good above 493, Infy good above 1996 weak below 1966, TCS good above 1173, weak below 1149. The ITC will become weak if it trades below 173, live in bear grip if it trade below 169.

Bulls have many things to say…!

In my earlier posts titled- The deep pockets benefits…..? “The Nifty August series has to trade above 4525 level immediately to confirm the bull move with in 3-4 trading sessions, other wise the damage can even wipe out the image of India’s growth story”.

The up move is to make the bears to cover the shorts at an early date and make the buying averages are more economical. A strong move after a steep fall helps the bulls because the bears sell low and buy at high price.
The ITC stock acted in line with the expectation touched 175, RIL resumed its journey above 1865 to 1900 range, ONGC traded above 900+, and the Ranbaxy added Rs15/-. The Tata Steel though moved up but could not cross 661 level very important to do so. The IDFC and Idea made very good moves.
Now the Nifty face resistance at 4555-59 level and it is likely that the banks see profit booking will bring down the Nifty to 4445 level, the best support to maintain the ongoing bull move.

Does FEAR over come the hope?

As posted on Sunday, the markets took support at 4403, SBI crossed 1549 high and touched 1614+, RIL took support at 1839. The Rel.cap pierced the bottom support and ITC became weak, just above the good support level. The fear of holding the longs pared the earlier gains at the fag end of the session.
The Nifty support at 4391-93, next at 4347-43 level. The Nifty may trade above 4463 and likely to touch 4508-4511. In case Nifty fails trade above 4481 before 2 pm it is very likely that it could have Southward journey due to credit policy or fear to hold longs. The RIL shall resume up move and trade above 1866, ONGC above 901, Infy above 1991, TCS above 1153, Wipro above 501-03 levels to see the Nifty move above 4491 immediate resistance level.
The smaller banks likely to surge up, the telecom stocks are under pressure and see some correction before they move up. Ranbay is in the news so is other pharma companies. The ITC has to move up above 170 to see renewed up move, other wise simply exit.
Now the globe is green and looking other markets to participate in the heartening movement at the indices. The top news today is RBI view on monetary policy, very likely to continue the earlier one. The results-Hindalco, Tata Motors, Tulip, Bajaj Hindustan, Aurobindo, Birla corp., BEL and BRFL

Fear & Greed rules the market!

The local conditions developed for an up move but the fear over the developments of global weaknesses and the rising crude price is the concern.
The HUL, RIL and SBI did their part at their end but the street response to it is difficult to predict. As of now the fear is more threatening investors to go long or to keep their holdings in this turbulent times.
Now the numbers game- Incase nifty high don’t cross 4481 weak, trades below 4441 very weak likely to touch 4383 next 4341-39 range. RIL has good support at 1839-37, trades below sell all del., the markets take longer period to recover. Incase ONGC trades below 881-83 level, the markets will touch 4140 level very easily.
The good supports- SBI has at 1464-61, RCOM at 510-512, Tata steel 621-23, Sail 138-139, Rel.cap at 1174-71 again at 1147-49; ICICI at 881-83, Bharti at 873-71.
As of now the other part of the world is melting, in any case these three stocks shall trade above their best support levels to see the steep fall as correction-- ITC trades below 163, HUL trades below 188-89, RIL shall not trade below 1815 will make the things worsen.

The consolation in slaughtering!

The stock markets can be compared with a battle field- “It is important to kill the rival opponents but it is more important to survive to enjoy the fruits of success”.
The silver lining in the darkness at these times is to get support from the biggies of the street. The RIL and SBI results were better than expected for this quarter can make a seal to the bleeding market. In the present context, I foresee a better come back as the scrips tumbled on low volume and bottom fishing from the institutions may save the markets.
In case Nifty gets support at 4401-03, RIL close above 1881, SBI crosses a high above 1549 then the worst is not as severe as it was pronounced. The tech majors with stood the global tremors, the after effects are even more important to the market. In case they crumble, they simply add fuel to the fire. As a matter of fact many Nifty companies are trading above their best support levels that were intact. The major results of BHEL, RCOM, Tata Steel, Tata Motors…yet to come, can save the indices. A word of caution, the road a head will be clearly visible only when the dust settles/ fog melts.