August Series begins.......

The August series likely to open with a gap down below 4300 level, and may face selling pressure till 4200 level. The results of RCOM below the street expectations but may hold with a view of big opportunity arising out of the 3G auction and the roll out of GSM services. The RCOM is good above 506-09 and will see selling pressure below 593.

The reality sector giant DLF published good results but the liquidity tightening measures taken by RBI will have cascading effect on this sector as a whole, DLF will be no exception. The DLF is good above 503-501 and will become 475 level.

The Indian private sector steel major Tata steel displayed reasonably good results on standalone basis and the consolidated results with Corus can be stellar but the Govt. forcing the industry to maintain the price line in spite of mounting in put costs. The Tata steel made a journey from a low of 578 to 662 in three days but it is strong above 651-49 level and will become weak below 625-21 level.

There was not much change in the support and resistance levels either for Nifty and the stocks. The Nifty will see a good run-up once it trades above 4390 level and the high shall cross 4400-4411 level.

The positive close and beyond...……

The markets are strong above 4262-65 level and maintained the level throughout the day and closed at 4332 level well above the basic support levels suggested in the earlier write-ups. The inflation for the 19 July was at 11.98% Vs 11.89% over the previous week. The analysts are happy over the number at the rate growth was a bit moderate and the measures taken by the RBI and the Govt. are working. The coming series may see the lowered crude price impact on the markets and the Govt. policy decisions on the liberalization & disinvestment process.
The banks are increasing their PLR and the interest rates, likely to cost the expansion plans of many industries, the infra structure projects draw money on time to time to meet the demand may see the cost escalation. The Sugar mills take advances against their stocks in the godowns, this will erode their profitability in the coming quartes.

The STOCK-MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: I failed to understand the importance of the series closing as the writing of “Puts and Calls” has much more to say while ending the series. The Relcap, ITC and the GMR Infra stood against the suggestion, though weak but maintained positive for this day.

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The July ends…..

The markets are likely to face the expiry ending and the volatility is any inter linked. The info tech stocks fared well. The results of the stocks those published in evening will get the market’s “Judgment”. The results of RCOM, Tata Steel and Aptech and BEML will announce their quarterly results. The 3G policy will be anounced tomorrow will have its effect on the telecom stocks.
The average to poor results of Relcap, Power grid, ITC, GMR Infra and the reality sector stocks may face the heat of the markets. The Relcap will become weak in case it fails to cross the high of 1328-31 levels and weak below 1295 level.
The ITC has support above 186-87 level. Incase it fails to trade above that level then the south ward journey can stop at 173-171 level.
The Power grid and the GMR may loose 4-5%, GMR is weak below 87 and good above 89.6.

In the July series the CNXIT lost 400 points. The Major looser are Aban Rs 603/-, JSW steel Rs 279/-, Financial tech Rs 196/-, Grasim by Rs 185/-, Infosys by Rs 180/-, Wipro by Rs 59/-, Satyam by Rs 77/-, Ster Rs 96/-, Maruti by Rs 86/-, Tata Steel by Rs 124/-, BEML by Rs 106/-, ABB by Rs 128/- and Reliance by 71/-.

The Major gainers are: Relcap Rs 305/-, LT by Rs 241/-, BHEL by Rs 235/-, jindal steel &power by Rs 185/-, Educom by Rs 172/-, SBI by Rs 157/-, ONGC by Rs 124/-, Sun by Rs 96/-, Siemens by Rs 92/-, and Nalco by Rs 69/-.
The Best performers:
STERLINBIO=193=60.2=28.31
RELCAPITAL=985=305=24.77
RNRL=75.5=24.7=23.91
BONGAIREFN=50.4=14.3=23.83
STAR=146=35.4=21.47
POLARIS=80.7=18.5=18.19
BPCL=270=61.6=17.24
CUMMINSIND=235=48.3=16.79
SIEMENS=437=91.5=16.28
MTNL=92.2=15.2=16.08
RENUKA=109=17.7=15.55
PURVA=169=33.8=15.04
INDIAINFO=549=109=15
IOC=352=61.6=14.73
BHEL=1437=235=14.72
POWERGRID=83.8=15=14.68
ONGC=872=124=14.54
TRIVENI=76.9=15.7=14.25
PFC=111=18.9=14.06
GDL=75.7=13.2=13.27
NATIONALUM=371=68.9=12.82
ANSALINFRA=78.7=17.2=12.72
PUNJLLOYD=234=37.9=12.21
The Worst Performers:

CAIRN 272 -36.1 -12.5
OMAXE 142 -26.1 -12.6
NIITTECH 131 -18.4 -12.8
TATAMOTORS 488 -75.1 -12.9
ABB 922 -128 -12.9
NIITLTD 102 -13.8 -13
CMC 593 -106 -13.7
NUCLEUS 215 -36.6 -13.8
TATASTEEL 757 -124 -13.8
IRB 168 -25.4 -13.9
SATYAMCOMP 458 -77.1 -14.7
AMTEKAUTO 250 -44.3 -15.2
EDELWEISS 702 -111 -15.4
ABAN 3126 -630 -15.4
STRTECH 208 -32.9 -15.9
NAUKRI 1020 -167 -16.8
RAJESHEXPO 68.9 -16 -18.2
IDFC 121 -29 -19.7
GTOFFSHORE 561 -146 -20.5
SKUMARSYNF 97.5 -24 -21
HCLTECH 275 -71.1 -23
JSWSTEEL 1033 -279 -24.2
SUNTV 315 -79.8 -24.3
MOSERBAER 141 -44 -24.5

The vengeance by bulls….

Yesterday’s jolt was equally retaliated by the bulls, could push the Nifty to the original level from where it took the slide. The expiry of the July series (started at 4315 and today’s closing was at 4313) and the roll over to the August could take the Nifty to the desired levels with the positive global cues and the cooling of the crude. The Nifty could maintain the levels from where it has started the July series at in spite of the sharp sell off from the beginning of the series due to inflation and global concerns. The tamed inflation curve and the economic outlook are stable and earnings are encouraging, so the Nifty is likely to advance in August series.
The HDFC moved up by 7.8%, Rel Infra by 6.8%, Tata power by 7%, Tata steel by 7.8% and the Tata communications by 9.4% where as Zeel and NTPC lost more than 4.5%.

The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER: As suggested in the morning in the Stock Specific Action: Infra stocks gave mixed results, LT is good above 2620 and the high touched is 2625 but the Rel Infra is good above 920, likely to touch and trade above 960 – the high touched 979, Punj Lloyd is good above 250 and closed at 271.6.
The Reliance is strong above 2115 and the high touched at 2174. The ONGC traded in between the suggested levels. The RCOM will be good above 501-498 and touched a high of 512.
The banking stocks found good number of buyers.
The DLF is weak below 473 and good above 481, resistance at 495 level and the stock touched a high of 497.
The Tata steel is good above 591, made a stellar performance at the bourses and touched a high of 635 level.
For Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The US markets make over...

The steep fall in crude lifted the spirits of US markets and the spill over of the green spread to the Asian markets likely to positively impact our markets today. The beauty in strong economy markets is that they recover even they fall one or the other reason. Where as the emerging markets run-up like a sprint competition when the going is good as well they crumble like the sand houses built at the shore.

The sharp fall from recent highs of 4540 to 4160 level will give a bounce back as expected. In my earlier write up it was mentioned that the markets holds above 4285 from the yesterday lows will confirm the bottom base at 3800. (Dt 28-07-08-The short-term lower side support exists at 4093-4100 level that will give a bouncing support…..)

Now the Nifty is likely to open positively with a gap up above 4211-15 and will cross the resistance at 4265 with ease but the strong resistance at 4285 has to be crossed with confidence. The caution is that the markets are trading ahead of the July expiry. The volatility is likely to be high and it may cause tension to the traders and the investors but the support levels will not be violated as the situation stands at this point in time.

For Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The RBI & Inflation impact….

The RBI has increased the Repo rate by 50 basis points and the CRR by 25 basis points wreck the banking stocks and the global melt down any way forced the indices to open lower. The banks are struggling to maintain the margins are now fixed left with no option but to raise their lending rates, in turn loosing the growth momentum.

The Nifty lost the important bottom support, more than that the confidence in the markets up move. The Nifty though left with steam but the RBI’s rate hike damage was considerably impacted the sentiment. The election year, the populist measures and the vote wooing measures are on the top agenda.

The Nifty was beaten badly and it can be confirmed if it fails to trade above 4260 level. The Nifty gains strength if the low is above 4125 and closes above 4225. The Reliance and ONGC has to come to the rescue.

The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER: As suggested in the Stock Specific Action: The RIL behaved weak below 2150 and the low touched at 2075.
The ONGC stock became weak below 1005 low touched 960.60
The RCOM will be good above 509 but high recorded 506 and weak below 498 it did not touched 498 but the low touched at 485.20.
The SBI has support at 1335-25 levels weak below 1440-45 level but low touched 1306 closed at 1318.65. The Relcap is weak 1320 and the low touched 1208.05 closed at 1219 where the second support was give at 1215-20 level.
The DLF is weak below 493 and the high touched 495 and the low touched 465. In my earlier posts I suggested that it will touch 460 level.
The Tata steel is weak below 608 and the high touched 605, support may come at 571-568 but the low touched at 577.80.
The positive news is developing for Cairn and good above 230 and weak below 218-19 level. It traded above 230 levels for the first two hours and later touched low of 221.45, positively closed at 228.55.
For Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The fall for consolidation......

The Nifty failed to pierce the 4360 resistance but could hold above 4260 level through out the day. The Nifty has to go without a break to take the momentum into Bulls fold then it has to close above 4415 level in the morning and the low shall not be below 4290 level. This condition will be satisfied only when there is a gap up opening but the overnight US fall and the weak Asian markets dampen the possibility. The RBI credit policy will impact the Banking stock valuations and it it widely rumored that the RBI may increase the REPO rate and leave the CRR unchanged for this time as the growth slowdown has to be taken into consideration.

The Asian markets are trading lower by 2-3%, and the Indian ADR’s are down by 5-8% down. In this bleak scenario the markets are likely to be opened below tha earlier support level at 4260 level and it may touch 4185 the best possible support for this day. The Bull activity developed buoyancy in the markets in the last weak will be negated only when the Nifty trades below 4050 level.

The positive news of the day is that the smaller stocks got the market attention. The commodity stocks like sugar, tea drew the market attention and the small cap stocks in Pharma, software gained more than 10% and some stocks like Polaris gained 23%. The readers might have followed the earlier articles in which I clearly mentioned that the small cap move confirms the bottom building process. These moves encourage the retail investors who in turn will get the heart- filled relief & satisfaction that enlightens the faith in the markets. The small and mid cap up move that has been initiated, will be consolidated in days to come.

For Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com

Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The narrow movement….

The cowardly acts of the terrorists did not shake the confidence of the investors but the markets are cautious a head of the RBI policy meet. The Nifty took the support very close to Friday’s low but failed to trade above 4293. The Nifty failed to trade above 4360 level due to weakness in the momentum is something the bulls needs to think about at this critical juncture.

The market pulse check by STOCKOMETER: The Nifty neither opened low nor it closed at least 30 points down. I failed to read the developments.

The suggestions made in the Stock Specific Action: The RIL has support at 2085 and the low recorded is 2106. The RPL failed to trade above 163 but the high touched is 163.85.
The ICICI could not shed its negative view as the high registered is 669.
The ONGC recorded 1044 but it could not trade above 1020 level but the low recorded at 951.25
The SBI nose dived below 1453-55 level and even touched 1410-11.
The Relcap could not cross the resistance at 1335-1339, the high recorded was 1337.8
The Infy weakly traded below 1550.
The satyam will find buyers above 379-81 but the high recorded at 379.
The Wipro is relative strong and traded in a range of 402-414
The DLF moved in between 493 to 509.

For Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The mayhem in metros…

The markets are facing difficulty to advance due to the turbulence in the country caused by the terrorist activities and publicly announcing their targets. The positive Asian markets cues are likely to cushion the steep down fall but I think the markets are likely to open at lower level by at least 30 points gap down. If we consider the past experience is a measure of indicator then the markets are likely to advance but the heavy weights failed to impress the street with their numbers is now a major concern. The ONGC, L&T, Kotak bank, HDFC bank, STER and Sun pharma are going to publish their quarterly numbers.

The ICICI bank failed to provide good results but also warned with a depicted growth slow down picture. On the other hand the banking major SBI has provided a meaningful quarterly performance but the NIM was reduced considerably. The MTM losses are eating the profits even to the biggies like RIL- more than 900 cr., ICICI reported more than 590 cr. where as SBI has reported 1656+ cr.

The Nifty will become strong only when it trades above 4360 and crosses the resistance at 4385. The strong momentum generated for the last 6 trading sessions will have some thing to say for and the next resistance at 4685 that may be crossed with out much resistance from the bears. The last two trading sessions diluted the bull momentum and the serial bomb blasts likely to impact adversely in the coming trading sessions. The short-term lower side support exists at 4093-4100 level that will give a bouncing support. For today, the lower level support at 4230-4240 level likely to be challenged.

For Stock Specific Action, Visit: http://www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com/
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The Fund Managers love the FALL...

The deep pocketed HNI’s and the fund managers across the globe “love the fall in the indices”, especially in the emerging markets like INDIA. The stock markets are always living with the scapegoats and vultures; here the early bird always catches the flesh.

The retail investors with their large investment base in quantitative numbers fail to understand the qualitative investment principle. In contrary to these scattered retail investors, the HNI’s and the Fund Managers are very organized and they are cohesive in action with right information dissemination at right time. The research reports, the studies, planning proposals and the govt. decisions will reach them well in advance to garner the opportunity.

The Investment horizon for these category operators are any thing beyond 5-7 years of time frame. So they love the markets go up only when they are tired of buying the quality stocks and then they push up with out providing any resistance at higher level. The retail investors who have limited money and cumulative failures while investing in the downturn fails to recognize the real up move because of the fear of failure and the shortened perspective.
The daily traders and the week to month long averaging experts think that they will gain by averaging at higher level shorting. This way the markets invite lots off shorts but they will be absorbed. The indices go any where but take lots of shorts into the system by providing signals as if they markets are likely to break when they side downwards to invite more shorts.

The markets find few takers (especially the scapegoats) at the higher levels are clear signals of exhaustion. The operators easily understand that the quantity he/she expected go, find no takers is a clear signal to go for shorting. The same situation arises at the bottom as there was no/few sellers is a clear signal for an up move. The real problem/hurdle the retail investor face across the globe is the method in that can help to identify the “Saturation Point”?.

The stock markets are not only with numbers but there are other things that influence those numbers are that matters.

Please think and place your ideas in the Comments…..

I request the readers to place their ideas for others sake and encourage the others to learn-“the right information dissemination at right time”