The bleed may continue…

The markets are beautifully placed again with a bottom building process at 2560 level first and again at 2860 level but the tapering rater lowered high even today places the chart reader to think in contrary to the possible move but one has to live with the open mind to accept the reality.

In my earlier postings it was mentioned that the markets will be bottomed when the last leg beating was over. The Index on 17th closing was at 3075, the stocks that closed HUL-242, LT-800, BHEL-1191, HDFC-1782, HDFC Bank-1026, SBI-1420 and Bharti-677 and the lows registered on 27-10-08, after the suggested possible Bear beating, Nifty levels registered at 2253, HUL-185, LT-680, BHEL-981, HDFC-1382, HDFC Bank-862, SBI-985 and Bharti-483. the markets were bottom in principle but may the index likely to move close to the lows or even to lower levels to 1935-1865 level (only 10-15 percent chances existing given the present situations).

The trimmed excesses….18*10

The markets are bound to rise as they fell. This is a natural phenomena inevitably happens whether some body likes or not.

The concern at this hour is “how fast and by what time?”. This is the common question lingering in every investors mind. Now just imagine some body met with an accident and was admitted in a hospital, placed in intensive care. Then the question will be of What?. Whether it is survival or surprise on the happening?. Then every body will accept with joy that the patient is alive and will be discharged soon after surgery and due care. The same situation is happened to the financial markets across the globe, all are hospitalized, some are in ICU, surviving on Govt. intervention and some are in specialists care.

So my sincere request to investors is to for get reading the daily news of financial happening unless you prefer to be a day/swing trader. The best thing is keep averaging to the limit some body can, enjoy dreaming the golden days that are being manifested.

The only trouble with the recent young investors is the very nature demanding the high valuations that were there and as a matter of fact they paid for the boom. Now the situation is quiet different, the excess valuations of high P/E valuations above 50 were gone and the realistic levels of 9-14 are ruling. So adjust to the reality and accept the truth, keep on investing in companies that delivered high rate of growth over 3-4 years.

The ray of hope….17*10

I think that the Indian markets are very close to bottom out for time being at least. The stocks are showing resilience to move down in-spite of the best efforts by the Bears.
As posted yesterday the infrastructure stocks are finding buyers at the lower levels. There was a clear hope down the line for next two years we are likely to manage and may cross the previous highs based on our internal consumption despite of the global turmoil that we see now.
The crude is falling, metals plummet gives a scope to ease the fall in inflation. The central govt. likely to announce more investor friendly investments norms and the FII inflow will start coming back to India after Jan-09.
But for now the markets yester day recovered on the back of short covering and some kind of buying at the bottom. The worst is not over as the stocks like HUL, LT, BHEL, HDFC, HDFC Bank, SBI and Bharti have not tasted the Bear beating. So Nifty likely to see some lower levels but it won’t hurt as the most already lost their value. The Nifty likely to cross the 3660 level and may touch the resistance at 3930-3885 level in the coming months. The next fall will complete the bear hammering and the Bulls will take charge. At this time it looks like a joke as it was looked impossible to see a downward move when the indices climbing from 5800 to 6200 level.
The retail investors always caught because of the Price Luring while moving up and Fear of Loss while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.

The hope developed….

The yesterday knock took the Bulls a back seat but the global developments like rate cuts and other positive measure to save the financial system improved the sentiment especially the Asian markets took some lead that propelled the indices to scale new highs.
The Nifty took support at 2860 as discussed in yesterday posting mainly on the back of Reliance improved performance on the bourses. The ONGC took a knock from a high of 780 to 720 in the last 15 minutes is a concern along with the expected cost burden on Bharti for holding excess spectrum. The RIL though recovered from the low of 1151 level to 1240 level but it is still under performing the market can pose a threat to bulls.
The metals recovered on short covering and the star performer on Nifty is the alternative energy major Suzlon, on the back of Obama win who may encourage by formulating policies that benefit the sector.

The Bulls want of….

The global clues are poor to gain strength in our markets. At this juncture the Bulls are want of energy to take on the crippling indices to higher levels. As posted yester day the nifty took support at 2860 level but lost the momentum strength that built in the after noon to the inflation news that rose to 10.72% from 10.68% on weekly basis though is not a concern at this hour of credit crunch.
The statement from chairman of SBI that took a beating that the stressed assets may increase as NPAs in future is a clear sign of recession. The banking industry is the torchbearer of the bull move may now take sides for the Bears.

As per the reports, the bank of England has cut the rates by 150 bps to 3%, lowest in the last 50 years, shows the liquidity concern and the slowdown in growth. The markets shall take it as a positive step, in the long run will help the industry as the crude came to a very reasonable level where every body willing to pay for it.

The global markets are in deep red despite of many adequate measures announced by various governments to mitigate the financial crunch and mitigate the fears of slowdown. There was no solace to investors but the blue chips are at attractive valuations.

WITH DUE RESPECTS TO icharts.

Congratulations OBAMA…..

Congratulations BARACK OBAMA…..
“Hearty congratulation”, CHANGE made a mark in the history to make a CHANGE.
The world experienced the waves of Obama, now a reality to accept the CHANGE as a reality.


The markets fell as they touched 3280 in the futures and fell a crumbling tower to settle at day’s low at2971, closed at 2995. The resistance can be used as an opportunity to build longs at lower levels from Nifty touching 2680-2630 level and bouncing back with a vigour. To satisfy the above condition, the RIL shall not trade below 1080-75 level. The sudden shut down of plants made the markets to feel the heat of recession impact that affected most, especially the India’s top Cap company.
The US markets are also trading lower to accept the more tax plans by the new Prez. The local issues will become clear in next one week, until then just trade or keep fingers crossed keep guessing.

In my earlier post titled as Looming uncertainties……Incase we could rally up to 3280 then the chances are there to see more short covering but the chances are remote to view this favourable situation. The down side protection is more important than the concern for upward rally at this critical juncture. As expected yesterday, Nifty got resistance at 3035 level but in the last ½ hour it could cross the resistance to touch 3065 level and ONGC crossed the resistance at 710 to touch 716 levels. The Nifty shall not breach the 2680 level and the RIL shall not go below 1230 level.

The Bulls party …….

The markets are enjoying the up move as if there was some Bull market at it a high of jubilant mood.
As expected earlier in the previous posts that the markets will get the bulls support as the blue chips are thrown on streets but very few takers to accept the offer. Those who shorted below 2860 level and those who were aggressive below 2680 are started covering their positions. I clearly mentioned not to short below if not interested to buy just maintain sidelines till the confidence builds to venture.
The surprise to day was the ONGC move and the operators in ONGC might already expected a short covering in global crude price as it was trading above 12%m so the ONGC crossed the 710 resistance and rallied to 780 level as the 716 now became as an immediate support. The RIL is consolidating at 1420-25 level as the resistance playing a hinder to a free rise.
The Governments across the globe came forward to cut the lending rates and infused more liquidity into the system to lay some support to the falling financial markets and sagging industrial growth. Now Indian Government take a bold initiative, has given assurance to the industry leaders to take advantage of the financial crisis of the west and maintain the work force without layoffs as the elections are nearing.
The Nifty has crossed the immediate risk of falling back to 2200 level as the bottom was neatly developed at 2550-60 level. So now the Nifty is likely to swing between 2850-3680 levels till the “New Year-09” bells ring.

The World is waiting.......

Presidential elections "a new life" of US. Will the 44th President of US can work for a change that the world is looking?.

I look for a better loving human beings living for fellow beings on this planet?.

The looming uncertainties…..

The intimidating uncertainties in our financial sector are unfolding through the top brass of country second largest bank head confessing the need for bail out package. The Business Standard covered an article titled as With Rs 630k-cr debt, MFs and NBFCs need bailout: Kamath, Press Trust of India / New Delhi November 2, 2008, 19:15 IST……."There is no need for a bailout package for the Indian banking system but the bailout package could be required for mutual funds and NBFCs………

The RBIs move to infuse more liquidity into the system reveals a fact that we are heading to a collision of financial crisis, efforts are in place to avert the gloomy conditions. The opportunities for Bears to make a killing at the bourses are opening widely with more favourable news than to the Bulls. At this point we are now enjoying the relief rally with positive cues from the global markets. The FM to meet with the bankers, PM meeting with the industry heads to create investment friendly atmosphere is more good news that can halt fall in the stock prices.
Incase we could rally up to 3280 then the chances are there to see more short covering but the chances are remote to view this favourable situation. The down side protection is more important than the concern for upward rally at this critical juncture. As expected yesterday, Nifty got resistance at 3035 level but in the last ½ hour it could cross the resistance to touch 3065 level and ONGC crossed the resistance at 710 to touch 716 levels. The Nifty shall not breach the 2680 level and the RIL shall not go below 1230 level.

Live with the numbers…..

Whether we like it or not we have to accept the movement of the numbers in the stock prices. The recent developments have some positive impact on the liquidity front may give support to the bulls to absorb the selling pressure. The RBI rate came when the inflation is tapering south but the more concern is on the IIP numbers representing a torrid industrial growth.

We are now at the midst of the pullback rally that can easily take us to 3100-3150 level. As mentioned on Friday, the Index swings were violent due to ONGC, Bharti and RCOM results effect and RIL participated.
Now RIL has come out with 40% rise from the lows at 930 levels to 1395 levels. But this time the banks bellwether SBI waiting for some good news to participate. The up move can be expected only when it trades above 1330-1350 level. The ONGC may find resistance at 708-10 level and may settle below 625-640 level for some tome unless the crude surges above 85 dollars per barrel immediately. The NIFTY has resistance first at 2998-95 level and again at 3031-25 level and good above 2800-2796 level but the lower level support expected at 2751-39 level.

They “R” there……

The FII problems are there and their economic conditions are not resolved but are not incremental in their nature. The FIIs pulled out of nearly 15000 crs. from our Indian equities but their appetite seems not over. The leveraged liquidity from the top economic counties like US,UK, Japan, Germany , France and other sound countries have indiscriminately irrespective of their investment value chased the stocks in emerging markets with a tag like BRICs. The domestic investors in those countries failed to think in contrary but accepted as a god sent opportunity, invested at very high levels. The scheme designed by FIIs run as per their plan, then started pulling their money from equities to PE placements in real estates and the other debt instruments. Now when every body noticed the fact then these FIIs resoted to sell in the exchanges to make the prices fall further to create a panic situation, add fuel to fire started chanting the basic principles of P/E ratios and the high valuations.

The real-estate investments will give multi bagger opportunities to these FIIs & the foreign companies after 5-6 years as they could grab the prime locations in the top metros of our nation. The economy will get its strength and the policy changes will help them to open shops & mall first in single brands and later in multi brands. The logic can be traced with simple arithmetic calculations like averages. Suppose a person with long-term vision and plan who could influence the markets can dictate the terms like what the FIIs are doing right now. The basic principle is same to every body but who follow and make others to follow the foot prints is the matter. The Person who bought DLF at IPO range at Rs600/- price, 200 shares cost Rs 1,20,000/- and sold 100 shares of DLF at 1100-1200 range can now buy 450-550 shares. So the average cost his total 600 (500+100) shares cost is 1,60,000/- only. The same is the case with RCOM, RIL, REL infra, Relcap and so on.... This can be spread to any number of blue-chip companies. The real loser is always the retail investor and the day trader who speculates with ones great mind and ability to satisfy the inherent ego and to make a foul cry on the circumstances that made his/her condition.

The policy actions are inducted to infuse liquidity but on the other hand we are making our selves fatten to be cut by these FIIs feast of selling at the higher level. In case the above discussed situation unfolds then our markets will stick to sub 2500 levels by using a branded glue stick for a longer time than anticipated. This will become a boom to the FIIs to sketch a different plan after some years when the memory of the retail investors fades.

The India Sovereign Fund concept will kill the spirit of the value discovery mechanism underlined in the open market rather than a system that functions on the controle of Government. The markets are increasingly getting the influences of the vested interests operating on a global scale. The political compulsions, populism measures for power rather than the long-term sustainable economic gains once controlled the policy decisions but now the global village being controlled by the president though every country is a sovereign by definition.

The long designed plans are not understood unless we view them with holistic approach to news headlines. The greed for global crude controle made Iraq devastation and surprisingly the heads of the nations talk on peace measures with reconstruction activity so is our civil Nuclear deal no less than a big business opportunity for a “stagflation” flagged world big economy. The doors of the Indian defense deals to global tenders are about to open as a competitive bidding process for better treasury gains. So is our port buildings and fast lane rail tracks….and so on…