THE PAST FOR FUTURE......RE-LOOK

IN MY EARLIER POST......SAID----the market as whole looks gloomy but that is not the true colour!!!!.....  THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO MADE LOTS OF MONEY DURING THE UP MOVE AND MANY MORE INTELLIGENTS AND PUNDITS BURNT THEIR FINGERS-----IS ALL EXPERIENCE FOR THOSE WHO LOST AND ALSO A REINFORCEMENT TO THOSE WHO MADE MONEY....??????
Lower level buying...dated--09-10-2011
The markets are rejoiced with the bottom support at 4700 level despite of the sharp fall in the European markets in the early this weak. The regular readers might have noticed that the world markets are in bull grip except the Japan market-Nikkei. The best out performed and the recent barometer is the DAX. The Germany has given best returns to investors and it had even strong support at 5000 level. The DAX bounced from that level with vengeance and the bulls are confident of their returns over longer period of holding.

The US market though struggling to revive on the prospects of economy getting stimulated by the federal infusions. The banks few years back are worst scrips now quoting decent prices based on their asset quality. Now these banks even do better with the reviving of the real-estate and consumer demand. The down grade of Moody’s ratings is a caution but not necessarily an indication of crippling/sinking economy. The best barometer is the stock market. The S&P is still quoting close to 1180 still above the 1050 support level.


 The Nifty is trading in the lower range of the 4700-5700 band, struggling to stay above 4930, has become a herculean task. The Nifty may touch 5280 level to trap both the short sellers at 4700 level and buyers above 5180 level is a likely scenario for NEXT 6 months. The Dollar appreciation (in my opinion a sponsored programme) helped the exporters to especially the soft ware service sector and to invite more FDI in to India, supported for the rise in the software stocks and likely to rise further. The Infy did not touch the 1900 level as anticipated when it started falling from 2700 level. Now in the changed economic environment, current move likely to touch 2700 level in future.The Banking sector which was attracted all bad news in recent time likely to under performs and will see lower levels. The downgrade of SBI will add fuel to the fire. The temporary relief in the ICICI and Axis shall be used to short at higher level. The earning season starts from Infy to focus on scrip based performance in the bourses. The focused approach will provide opportunity to gain from the results based moves. The Govt is likely to announce following the lead provided by the UK stimulus move. The FMGC sector, the outperforming sector likely to join the draggers list due to the inflation based tightening of the liquidity. The future growth in the indices can be tracked once Nifty touches and bounces from 4400-4500 level. The commodity stocks will gain the buying support as the cycle likely to see a silver-lining.


THE BOTTOMS ARE BUILDINGS!!!!! dated--07-01-2012

The Nifty is in a very narrow band. I posted the same in my earlier posts.The markets are in a sense building the bottom. The strength in the market is intact. The Nifty is getting support at 4700 level.
During my personal interaction, people are interested to buy large caps because of the liquidity. They wanted to invest 2-5 lakhs in one go. Where the tiny stocks which multiply by 5-10 time need separate patience to acquire. The SIP- Systematic Investment Plan is a model known to many market participants. The SIP term is a popular one but a coined a word like -KoI-Keep on Investing with Knowledge of Investment.

The multi-baggers are not possible with large cap and mid cap stocks. The small caps take the advantage of becoming large. The tiny stocks though look weak on fundamentals but they takeoff like fire. It is very difficult to identify such stocks but the small cap universe is quite large.
During my recent discussions, I suggested friends to buy Relcap rather than SBI, since then it gave a 30% return and it has much more potential stored in. The insurance business will give good valuation in coming months. This a sector having very bright future apart from the infra structure.

the market fall from the current levels are very good for long-term investors who can build their portfolio over a period of 12 months. The best case to start buying the value stocks from 4400 level Nifty touches.
The RIL likely to touch 620 level and it may touch 550-585 level but the market as whole looks gloomy but that is not the true colour!!!!.....

Investors worry--CRISIS not OVER

Investors worry where to put cash as banks wobble
By Chris Vellacott


LONDON
Fri Feb 3, 2012 5:59pm IST

LONDON (Reuters) - Investors are holding more cash than at any time since the Lehman Brothers collapse to protect themselves against volatile financial markets, presenting them with a dilemma - where to hold that money when banks are looking shaky.
When the European Central Bank stepped up efforts to provide liquidity to banks in late 2011, financial markets settled down and the chances of a catastrophe scenario, in which banks fail and depositors lose their money, became more remote.
But investors are still mindful that the unthinkable, while highly unlikely, is not impossible, giving pause for thought to institutions and wealthy individuals with sums too large to be covered by existing compensation schemes.
A monthly survey of British investment managers showed in December cash holdings were at their highest for more than two years, prompted by worries over the euro crisis.
The panic about bank solvency has not yet reached the levels seen in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers four years ago, investors said. One senior private banker said at the height of the post Lehman turmoil in 2009, a "particularly eccentric" rich client had enquired about putting large amounts of their wealth in gold and then burying it on their land.
But closer scrutiny of counterparty risks by investors is currently leading to more use of alternatives to bank deposits like short-dated debt issued by AAA-rated governments or cash-like instruments such as money market funds.
"It's a small chance it'll happen but it's big enough that we think there's no point in looking for a few extra basis points (of investment performance) for taking the risk," said William Drake, co-founder of London-based investment manager Lord North Street.
Drake said the firm favours putting more money in short- dated UK government bonds as an alternative to deposits in a bank, while the crisis continues.
"We think you should be absolutely sure you are going to get 100 pence back out of every pound you put in." he said.
Britain's Financial Services Compensation Scheme guarantees recovery of up to 85,000 pounds per person if a bank fails, protecting the savings of most people but falling short of the amounts deposited by rich investors or institutions.
David Scott, chief executive of London-based upmarket investment manager Vestra Wealth, favours parking clients' cash in UK banks that were bailed out by the government during the earlier crisis of 2008 to 2009.
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) is 83 percent owned by the British government following a state bailout during the 2008 credit crisis, while Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) is 40 percent state owned.
Having stopped people losing their savings once, the British government is likely to do it again should the need arise, Scott argues."There's no way the UK government will let a high street bank go," he said.
Xenfin Capital, a London-based hedge fund trades using a small amount of the capital it holds for its clients, mostly very rich private investors, placing the rest on deposit at cooperatively-owned Dutch lender Rabobank RABO.UL.
Unlike its main Dutch rivals ABN AMRO ABNNV.UL and ING Group (ING.AS), Rabobank did not need state aid during the 2008 credit crisis.
"We use Rabobank as a counterparty due to their high credit standing, and due to the fact that the London FX Prime Broking desk only deals in spot FX, and has no exposure to more exotic instruments," said Nick Hocart, head of business development at Xenfin.
Many of the investors contacted by Reuters said they are less nervous now about the chances of financial catastrophe than they were during 2008-2009.
Efforts by monetary authorities late in 2011 to provide liquidity to struggling European banks are widely seen as evidence of firm political will to avert collapse, said Rob Burgeman, a divisional director at investment manager Brewin Dolphin (BRW.L), who sits on the asset allocation committee.
"You have to do your due diligence but at the same time if you are with a basket of blue chip banks it is inconceivable that the world will watch this go to hell in a handcart," he said.
But four years of financial crisis and extreme events like Lehman Brothers have undermined assumptions about banks and led to long term shifts in attitudes about how to manage cash, said Frances Hudson, global strategist at Standard Life Investments.
"Lehmans started counterparty risk awareness and that'll be a lesson that will stay with us for some time," she said.
"One would hope things would ease at some point but there's still a credibility deficit from governments and from the banking system."

Per capita income crosses Rs 50,000 for first time in 2010-11

PTI, 31 Jan 2012 | 06:22 PM

"The per capita income at current prices is estimated at Rs 53,331 in 2010-11, as against Rs 46,117 for the previous year, depicting a growth of 15.6 per cent," said the Quick Estimates of National Income released by the Central Statistical Office (CSO).

Reflecting growing prosperity, India's per capita income grew by 15.6 per cent to Rs 53,331 per annum in 2010-11, crossing the half-a-lakh rupees mark for the first time, according to government data.

"The per capita income at current prices is estimated at Rs 53,331 in 2010-11, as against Rs 46,117 for the previous year, depicting a growth of 15.6 per cent," said the Quick Estimates of National Income released by the Central Statistical Office (CSO).

The growth in per capita income comes on the back of 8.4 per cent expansion of the Indian economy during the last fiscal.

Per capita income is the earnings of each Indian if the national income is evenly divided among the country's population of around 120 crore. It is an important indicator of overall prosperity in the country.

However, the increase in per capita income at constant (2004-05) prices, after discounting for inflation, was about 6.4 per cent in 2010-11. It was Rs 35,993 in 2010-11, as against Rs 33,843 in the previous year.

According to the figures, the size of the economy at current prices rose to Rs 71,57,412 crore last fiscal, up 17.5 per cent from Rs 60,91,485 crore in 2009-10.

Based on 2004-05 prices, the Indian economy expanded by 8.4 per cent during the fiscal ended March, 2011.

The GDP at constant (2004-05) prices in 2010-11 has been estimated at Rs 48,85,954 crore, as against Rs 45,07,637 crore in 2009-10, as per the Quick Estimates.

The rate of growth in the 2009-10 fiscal stood at 8.4 per cent, as per provisional estimates which were also released today.