Friday, August 22, 2008

The consolation move….

The weakness in the Nifty stocks was mitigated due to the rise made by the RIL, ONGC, RPL, Bharti, RCOM, BHEL, Rel Infra and Infosys. As expected the Nifty got support at 4248 (…The Nifty will get support at 4251-49 level…) but the problems of selling at hibher level was not reduced. So the markets need much more favourable news to rise from this gloomy situation.

The Nifty lost more than 130 points yesterday and recovered nearly 43 points, a consolation move to the brave heart Bull. The Nifty lost more than 100 points on week on week basis and 5 less when compared with the July series closing.
The banks especially the private sector banks made some come back, fertilsers and Sugar stocks continued to do well.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Want of energy…..

The markets are facing resistance to make an up move right from it failed to trade above 4600 level. The fall is good and can be considered as consolidation so long as it trades above 4416 or 4400 level. But the markets failed to live up to the expectations of the Bulls who committed positions as it could rallied up to 4650 level from 3800 level and the there was so much of relief from the crude front.

The internal, non negotiable challenge to the Govt. is maintaining growth with inflation under controle. The Govt. is willing to sacrifice growth but not the escalating inflation that could become very costly if it chooses to face early elections. The inflation numbers are at 12.63%, though the rate of growth is slow but high in numbers.

The top news: The Health care with Insurance-schemes- as mater of fact the real opening of sunrise sector with huge potential untapped. The N-deal will go through at NSG meeting- will benefit lot more industries as earlier discussed. The existing inflation numbers no longer suitable to reality sector and the auto sector. The situation can be favourably understood; monetary pressures likely to have eased out when the low of UNITECH becomes 181-83 and the high crosses 195 level.

The RCOM is also a GSM operator, existing GSM operators agreed to give interconnection, RCOM is good above 405-06 level and very good if it trades above 418-21 level. The important news could change the RIL & RNRL gas dispute is that the Ambani’s may meet at home to settle rather than in court.

The Nifty heavy weights are weak except RIL and Infy. The RIL will boost the Nifty if could trade above 2230 and may drag further if it trades below 2190 level. The ONGC need to bounce back to 1050 levels and shall cross the resistance at 1070.

The Nifty is likely to open due the negative sentiment of yesterday sell off and weak Asian markets. The Nifty loosing one support after one support and the numbers are drifting lower. The Nifty will get support at 4251-49 level and the second from where the bounce is expected at 4230-26 level.
The banks and reality stocks likely to be under pressure but the metals may find some buying. The RNRL is worth watching, good above 96 level. The GMR Infra is in news, good above 104-05 but very unlikely that it could trade above that level. The Nagarjuna constructions though finding support at 125 levels but struggling hard to cross the 145-48 resistance is in news.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Want of energy…..

The markets are facing resistance to make an up move right from it failed to trade above 4600 level. The fall is good and can be considered as consolidation so long as it trades above 4416 or 4400 level. But the markets failed to live up to the expectations of the Bulls who committed positions as it could rallied up to 4650 level from 3800 level and the there was so much of relief from the crude front.

The internal, non negotiable challenge to the Govt. is maintaining growth with inflation under controle. The Govt. is willing to sacrifice growth but not the escalating inflation that could become very costly if it chooses to face early elections. The inflation numbers are at 12.63%, though the rate of growth is slow but high in numbers.

The top news: The Health care with Insurance-schemes- as mater of fact the real opening of sunrise sector with huge potential untapped. The N-deal will go through at NSG meeting- will benefit lot more industries as earlier discussed. The existing inflation numbers no longer suitable to reality sector and the auto sector. The situation can be favourably understood; monetary pressures likely to have eased out when the low of UNITECH becomes 181-83 and the high crosses 195 level.

The RCOM is also a GSM operator, Adlab mergers with Big film. The important news could change the RIL & RNRL gas dispute is that the Ambani’s may meet at home to settle rather than in court.

The nifty heavy weights are weak except RIL and Infy. The RIL will boost the Nifty if could trade above 2230 and may drag further if it trades below 2190 level. The ONGC need to bounce back to 950 levels and shall cross the resistance at 970.

The Nifty is likely to open due the negative sentiment of yesterday sell off and weak Asian markets. The Nifty loosing one support after one support and the numbers are drifting lower. The Nifty will get support at 4251-49 level and the second from where the bounce is expected at 4230 level.
The banks and reality stocks likely to be under pressure but the metals may find some buying. The RNRL is worth watching, good above 96 level. The GMR Infra is in news, good above 104-05 but very unlikely that it could trade above that level. The Nagarjuna constructions though finding support at 125 levels but struggling hard to cross the 145-48 resistance is in news.


The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

The bottoms wiped…….

The bottom supports of many stocks wiped out once the Nifty lost the support at 4396 level. The Nifty faced resistance at 4418 level itself. The move below the 4396 level triggered heavy sell off and the long positions winding pulled the indices to a previous expected level that even damaged due this heavy selling in Banking and reality sector. (In the earlier post it was mentioned about the levels titled as … The weakening of stocks…dt19-08-2008… the Nifty is having resistance at 4451-53 level, good if it could trade above 4416 -18 level, the first support in the down move 4336-30 level and the best for this day is at 4302-4296 level. Good luck).

The Bharti failed to cross the high of 818, RCOM to cross 418, RPL failed to move above 163 level and RIL to cross the 1264 levels. The positive side even in the steep fall is that the RIL could stay above 2000 level. The good part of the day is that the SAIL stood against the trend made some accumulation. The star of the heavy weight is RANBAXY that rallied to 515+ levels.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The big news…

The markets are flooded with big news on major investments by companies. ONGC buys the assets of Imperial Energy for $3 billion dollars. The RIL joins hands with Petrobras for petrochemical industries, RPL commissions its refinery by Sep-08, The RCOM-Big TV launch and IPVT plans, i-Phone sales by Bharti and Vodafone, Tata Motors changed plans in Rights issue, Maruti big plans to stabilize the margins and increasing of sales. Above all the NSG is meeting today and tomorrow to clear the proposal made by India’s nuclear plans.

The US markets recovered from the lows and our ADRs rallied but the Asian markets are sinking in red is the big concern for today.

The Nifty may find resistance to cross the 4461-63 level, the first resistance at 4445-47 level has to be crossed with ease. The news flow is good but the concerns are also compressing the move. The bottom support at 4393-96 is crucial and any major sell off in RIL, ONGC DLF and Bharti may change the direction.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

The narrow move…..

Though our neighbouring markets in China rose by more than 7%, Hang Seng rallied, we were adjusted for mere good opening to a range of 69 points, on closing basis it is only 47 points added. Can we take this consolidation as an opportunity for tomorrow big move?.

As expected earlier, the Nifty could open at 4361-63 level (low at 4365.45 and high at 4434.90) and crossed the first resistance at 4431-33, closed above the 4415-16 level that is required to expect some positive move from the markets.

The RIL and RCOM move positively to the news as expected. The good thing to note is that the Bharti could cross the resistance at 816-18 level, RCOM could cross 415-16 level. The move in Bharti shall propel a good move to cross the 835 resistance and could trade above 820 levels will give boost to the markets.
The small caps moved, especially the IT stocks gained apart from the fertilizer pack. The new addition of 39 stocks in F&O may increase the over all NSE turnover but the small and mid caps are turning suicide spots in the case of wild swings either side, easily managed by the vested interest groups. It is highly advisable to stick to top 20-30 stocks are with high liquidity with easy exit route.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The weakness persists…..

The Nifty could save the damage from recovering from the lows of 4316 level to 4380 level and the Aug premium increase substantially. The lows of Nifty may be challenged today once again due to poor global cues. The problem right now is that the Nifty heavy weights are in Southward move be it Bharti, RCOM, RIL, Tata Steel, ICICI, DLF and Unitech; some are in consolidation like Rel infra, SBI, LT, Bhel, ONGC, Infy, WIPRO, TCS and NTPC. The situation needs to be changed to positive performance, only possible when the FIIs start buying in a big way. These group companies are breaking their heads to change their face at their home. So the markets may live with the positive support from the crude as they are. The global cues may not trigger big rally before Oct-08, US may see some rally before their presidential polls.

The RIL and RCOM in news may get some favour from markets. The markets are likely to open flat at the support level at 4361-63 level with some positive bias. The levels of Nifty are in the range of yesterday levels. The challenge is how RIL will react to the news. The Markets get energy when the RIL bounces back and trade above 2285 level.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

The weakening of stocks…..

The real problem with the Nifty is that the heavy weights are now in bear grip except ONGC, LT, BHEL are in consolidation mode. In case these counters fail to stand up to the cause then the sentiment will become worse, which can lead the markets below 4000 level. As of now the momentum become weak but the bottoms are still in tact. So the markets are looking for some short term triggers to take back to 4600 level.

The Inflation is still causing the damage; the RBI may again put some fiscal measure if it finds the inflation scale up in food items then the challenge will be more challenging. The only positive factor right now is the MONSOON.

The Nifty may find support at earlier suggested level and the real challenge for this day is to cross the 4461-63 resistance with ease.

The stocks that are important to observe are Bharti and ONGC. The Bharti shall cross the 819-21 level resistances and ONGC shall trade above 1085 for an hour and shall cross the 1096 resistance to see the strength of market at this point in time is intact.

In my earlier write-up (Real bull move….dt.8-8-08) it was mentioned that the Essar oil may correct further and bounce back from 216-18 level. Today it could close at that level, the best support available at 203-05 level and the markets lost more than 250 points with out any interruption.

The SGX Nifty is now trading with 56 points down, The Hang Seng is down by 125 points but the Nikkei lost more than 340 points, yesterday it could stay in positive territory.

To find the halt in the down ward move, it is good to observe that the SBI shall not trade below 1360-65 level, Bhel shall not trade below 1550-45 level, LT shall not trade below 2530-40 level and ONGC shall not trade below 980 level.

Most of the stocks are showing skewed moves that may cause confusion while trading. So let the dust settles and the confusion vanish in one or two days.
The Nifty is having resistance at 4451-53 level, good if it could trade above 4416 -18 level, the first support in the down move is at 4336-30 level and the best for this day is at 4302-4296 level. Good luck.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Monday, August 18, 2008

The TRAI move….

The rules of the game are fast changing in the telecom sector. Now the markets likely to put pressure (short-term) on the tecom stocks but it is also an opportunity as these companies are already serving the customers with their broadband services. The challenge is how fast they could gear up to meet the demand to protect their revenues and the profits that will help to improve the market capitalization.

The RIL and RPL are dragging the indices and now the sentiment is at stake. In case markets fail to cross the 4495-4502 level by this weekend could be accepted as the markets likely to go below the 4000 level. In case the ONGC, SBI, BHEL and LT come to the rescue of the struggling bulls then the up move become easy as the sagging RIL pack may give member ship to RCOM and Bharti in their group.

The metal counters especially the ferrous sector got huge potential to out-perform in the coming 2009 calendar year along with the Sugar sector. The undisputed out performer of 2009 will be the sugar stocks right from Oct-08. This quarter will open doors for investments in Sugar industry, the second best could be in nuclear action. The next quarter may offer investments in gas, especially from RIL and the power equipment. The 2009 will see great opening in insurance sector after June-09. The Govt is serious in maintaining the pace in reforms that can attract huge investments in India, rapid economic growth that will become the best instrument to counter the higher level of inflation at this point in time. So the indiscriminate sell off in the Indian stocks for a throw away price can never be seen over next 3-5 years. The long-term investments with “accumulation concept” are the best way to tackle the current crisis.

For Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT
.

The tough fight….

The Bulls and bears made every effort to win over the other but finally Bulls eased the way but the strength is intact. The markets are likely to be in the range bound for some more time as the uncertainties are not eased out or the triggers for the rally are fired. As suggested in the morning the Nifty could not cross the resistance at 4465 and made a high of 4447.40 and the low touched at 4379.85, closed at 4393.05 level.
(….The Nifty has support level but failed to close above the resistance level at 4463-65 level. The Nifty may face now resistance at 4485-91 level but the support is at 4366-69 level. The Nifty may not breach the psychological support level at 4401-05 level, the Bulls might fight for that level).
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: In the Stock Specific Action, suggested that the … RIL is good above 2285-93 level and become weak below 2251-45 level. The RIL high at 2290 and low at 2210.20
The ONGC is struggling to cross 1085 level but the support is at 1040 level. The ONGC still find it difficult to cross the resistance but took support at the support level. The high at 1085 and low at 1040.55

The Relcap is good above 1361-63 level; The Relcap high at 1354 and low at 1280.30
ICICI bank shall trade above the resistance at 703-705 level. The ICICI high at 689.70 and low at 660.75
The SBI is good above 1472 and weak below 1450 level. The SBI high at 1477.70 and low at 1425.10
The telecom giants fight may reflect in their prices also. The Bharti is good above 728-31 level. The high at 828.80 and low at 800.90
and RCOM is good above 436 level The high at 425.95 and low at 411.0 far below the support level.
The Tata Steel is good above 620-21 level and weak below 608-06 level. The high at 621.05 and low at 599
The Sail is good above 146 level. The high at 145 and low at 138.25
The DLF may find bottom support at 490-89 level, The high at 509 and low at 486.40
JP may get support at 168-69 level. The high at 176.5 and low at 167.55
Above all the RPL which is weak below 163 nose dived to 155 level. The High touched at 163.50 and the low was at 155.15

For Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The Nifty journey……..

The August journey of Nifty leads no where as the Nifty closed at 4414 on the opening day of the series. The Nifty closed on previous trading day was at 4431, net change was all most negligible.

The three days of holidays brought some positive news like Private PFs can in vest in equities, waiving of excise duty for the imports made on capital goods for UMPP but these are not enough to trigger upward journey but the jump in rising inflation to 12.4% is a big negative news, further tightening of fiscal measures, and possible investigations on the Forex accounting methods followed to avoid the losses by RIL, RCOM and Bharti may influence to weaken the upward movement of Nifty.
The global slowdown may restrict the equities that bring an opportunity in the form of consolidation. The Indian markets are no different to the global action but for those who want to avoid the long run on uncertainness may try to bet on “quarter on quarter” basis as the opportunity likely to emerge for some investments.

The short term indicators are now in favour of bears but the up ward momentum started from 1st July from a low of 3800 level to 4650 level is under correction. The bulls need to strengthen themselves as the events turning odd to them. The Nifty is having good support at 4300-30 level and very good support at 4140-60 level. So the consolidation period shall become an opportunity for investments.

The SGX Nifty is now trading with 30 points loss, The Hang Seng is down by 190 points but the Nikkei is in positive territory with 230 points gain.

The Nifty has support level but failed to close above the resistance level at 4463-65 level.
The Nifty may face now resistance at 4485-91 level but the support is at 4366-69 level. The Nifty may not breach the psychological support level at 4401-05 level, the Bulls might fight for that level.

For Stock Specific Action, Visit: www.intradaystockcalls.blogspot.com
The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.