The markets took the much required support at the 3850 level and the efforts of bulls being respected in placing the Nifty above 4000 level.
The markets are at confusion about the future whether India can out perform at the Global competition as the environment was changed due to the high crude prices and inflation. To add fuel to the fire the local political situation is also very bad even though everybody is trying to pose a brave face while facing the camera.
Whether it is Dr Kalam or Dr Manmohan who recommends the N-deal but the changed economic compulsions forcing us to sign on the deal to safe guard the energy security to the nation. The markets live with short sighted policies, the political compulsions and competitiveness of the economy to excel in future. The perceived robust growth of economy is intact inspite of the above discussed problems.
The monsoon is so far good but the high input cost is becoming an expensive investment at the agriculture level. The farmers are no longer attached to the tag that they need to cultivate and produce food for the rest but they are equating as investment and return.
The first quarter (Mar-June) results and the industry views on the demand supply side at their level will decide the future course of direction of the Nifty.The RBI governs work became very tough to deal with the inflation as limited tools left at his disposal to dealt with the situation. The crude oil price fall can infuse strength to emerging economies like India. The situation will ease as things stand at this point in time. The other challenge is the Rain God’s blessings to India.
The external and the limited controllable situations are controlling the Nifty direction at this point in time. The time will ease things and the turmoil will melt down and the confusion dust will settle down by Sep-08 but the fog of parliament elections will again put speed breaks to the upward Journey of Nifty in 2008.
So all around existing confusion will lay down heavy burden on the shoulders of the Bulls even though the macro and micro economic conditions look bright for the long-term journey ahead.
Saturday, July 05, 2008
Thursday, July 03, 2008
The early signs…….
The markets are taking the early signs of recovery from these levels. To substantiate the earlier posting, there was a jubilant recovery that occurred as if there was a bull grip over the markets.
Today the market lost all the gains that made yesterday. The silver lining of the days action is that the markets dug enough space to burry. As a matter of fact whose grave yard is this any way?. The markets may test the 3600 level but the bounce could become very sharp as it happened in yesterday’s move. The hope that can light the Bull Run torch could be from the support from the Nuclear deal.
The market stability will also depend on the 4020 level, and shall march above to 4230 level crossing the high of 4285 with in 3-4 trading sessions. Incase this won’t happen then we ca assume that the bottoms were washed till 3100 level. We like it or not the markets know the news better and that will be reflected in the price that is what ultimately represent in the technical analysis. The Reliance shall trade above 2080 level and shall cross the early resistance of 2285. The bottom support of RIL, ONGC, SBI, Infosys, wipro, Bharti, LT, BHEL and DLF shall not be challenged by more than 2 percent.
There is no reason to worry at this point in time as the markets are at cross roads. It could become a good opportunity buy rather than selling the holdings. The bounce will easily take the Nifty to 4560-4630 level. The temporary worst can be considered over when the Reliance Infra crosses 850 level, India Bulls Real-estate crosses 310 level, the LT crosses 2400 level, Bharti crosses 785 level.
Today the market lost all the gains that made yesterday. The silver lining of the days action is that the markets dug enough space to burry. As a matter of fact whose grave yard is this any way?. The markets may test the 3600 level but the bounce could become very sharp as it happened in yesterday’s move. The hope that can light the Bull Run torch could be from the support from the Nuclear deal.
The market stability will also depend on the 4020 level, and shall march above to 4230 level crossing the high of 4285 with in 3-4 trading sessions. Incase this won’t happen then we ca assume that the bottoms were washed till 3100 level. We like it or not the markets know the news better and that will be reflected in the price that is what ultimately represent in the technical analysis. The Reliance shall trade above 2080 level and shall cross the early resistance of 2285. The bottom support of RIL, ONGC, SBI, Infosys, wipro, Bharti, LT, BHEL and DLF shall not be challenged by more than 2 percent.
There is no reason to worry at this point in time as the markets are at cross roads. It could become a good opportunity buy rather than selling the holdings. The bounce will easily take the Nifty to 4560-4630 level. The temporary worst can be considered over when the Reliance Infra crosses 850 level, India Bulls Real-estate crosses 310 level, the LT crosses 2400 level, Bharti crosses 785 level.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Let the under-performing…..
One of the clear signs of trend reversal in a bull market happens when the outperforming stocks of yesterday start the signs of under-performance as the days goes by. The Index continues to surge in the same direction but the darlings take a nap. The same is the case with the falling market. There are some stocks those fall very steep surprises the retail investor and very little could understand. The outright sell off will be seen with steep falls, as the days pass by every body could recognize that what was happened?.The Deep-pockets garner the best opportunity to sell at higher levels and they also enjoy the early gains of up trend.
In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. The stock price always speaks the truth louder than the news. A clear observation can through the opportunity to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.
To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time- Real estate and Capital goods shall start perform. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.
In this bleak scenario there could be silver ling to identify the trend reversal. The stock price always speaks the truth louder than the news. A clear observation can through the opportunity to the retailers also. The trend reversal can be identified once the weakest sector finds buying interest in the market by the smart people that could be the secret why these weak stocks won’t fall however deep the market falls.
To validate the above observation it is necessary that the underperforming sectors in the market at this point in time- Real estate and Capital goods shall start perform. So it is very important to see DLF trades above 496-503 level, Unitech shall trade above 210-214 level and the India Bulls Real estate above 395-400 level. The capital goods sector though has some silver lining with orders at disposal but the heat of raw material costs eating into the profits, thus evaporations of current prices to settle with lower P/E valuations. This sector has huge potential to outperform in future but the U-turn possible only when the price of L&T trades above 2750-2800 level, the BHEL shall trade above 1550-1585 and the ABB shall trade above 1020-36 level.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
crude CRUDE acting......
The Aug-2007 levels…..May-07 levels...the journey towards south starded in Jan-2008 could end in Sep-08.
The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty touched without any resistance from the bulls.
Now the markets are on a free fall. The risk takers right from the 5100 level, 4800 level and the worst hit at 4600 level were wiped out as the uncertainties are looming large.
The markets got support only when the trend reversal happens at the front line stocks. The best things can be seen only when Reliance crosses 2440 level, ICICI crosses 830 level, ONGC crosses 930 level, SBI crosses 1330 level, BHARTI crosses 860 level, RCOM crosses 610 level and the strongest scrip of these turbulent days- RPL crosses 205, then the core strength in the market will established and will be reflected in the NIFTY. The markets are moving northwards only to sail to southwards with vigour. The FII selling will be over as the stocks fall below their acquisition level. Please see the older posts in which I discussed the same.
To blow once own trumpet, I clearly suggested to invest in technology, Pharma and FMCG in my earlier posts as they could reward the investors in future. Those who invested in FMGC might have experienced the taste of down fall and the rest are still in huge profits.
Those who can venture for longterm can now start cherry picking in Telecoms and the equipment sector. The great old days of infrastructure are far from sight but the malls with cash and carry business is bright. The smaller Indian banks with insurance tag will get good support from FIIs and foreign banks. The best safe bet is always the technology now with a new name - KPO services.
The levels suggested earlier for the Nifty touched without any resistance from the bulls.
Now the markets are on a free fall. The risk takers right from the 5100 level, 4800 level and the worst hit at 4600 level were wiped out as the uncertainties are looming large.
The markets got support only when the trend reversal happens at the front line stocks. The best things can be seen only when Reliance crosses 2440 level, ICICI crosses 830 level, ONGC crosses 930 level, SBI crosses 1330 level, BHARTI crosses 860 level, RCOM crosses 610 level and the strongest scrip of these turbulent days- RPL crosses 205, then the core strength in the market will established and will be reflected in the NIFTY. The markets are moving northwards only to sail to southwards with vigour. The FII selling will be over as the stocks fall below their acquisition level. Please see the older posts in which I discussed the same.
To blow once own trumpet, I clearly suggested to invest in technology, Pharma and FMCG in my earlier posts as they could reward the investors in future. Those who invested in FMGC might have experienced the taste of down fall and the rest are still in huge profits.
Those who can venture for longterm can now start cherry picking in Telecoms and the equipment sector. The great old days of infrastructure are far from sight but the malls with cash and carry business is bright. The smaller Indian banks with insurance tag will get good support from FIIs and foreign banks. The best safe bet is always the technology now with a new name - KPO services.
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