The FII are not interested to reverse their positions in India. The short selling by borrowing will open a new window of opportunity in the financial sector of lending and borrowing the shares from our MFs and DIIs. The financial reforms will be done with this bitter experience likely to provide a congenial environment that encourages the local money flow to capital markets. The reports suggest that 2% of Indians are investing and then imagine this be 10% in next 5 years, and the Index levels. But for now the markets are in full FII selling grip, there was no bad news except their bad financial conditions.
The bleeding in the Asian markets continuing and we can be no exception for today. Unless the FIIs agree to reverse their positions, the situation can see no light for next one month. The over done of FIIs shows their nature of investment style and the good part is to place some restrictions on their distress selling to curb this kind of mayhem in markets. The emerging markets are by nature young and can not take the load in the cases of crisis of the present nature.
The FII investment guidelines shall carry a clause that they shall invest for long term at least for 5 years and they shall not press the selling button for not more than 10% their holding thorough open market operations, can resort for off market bulk deals.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Just remember…...
The history is not far way to make it difficult to recollect the past happening happened on the Indian bourses just before the crash. The challenge is to accept the reality and live with the situation offered or created. The present situation in the market was expected, to touch this 2900 level well in advance and was published in my 25th August posting.
The Nifty index level was simply a number to quote but the timing of buying stocks never depend on the index level unless the choice falls on index basket. The fall of index will help us to identify more blue chips as there was an opportunity opened to invest for next two years perspective. The trader any way live for the moment to day swing and grossly depend on the price fluctuation derived from the demand and supply but the investor is entirely a different entity, wait for the opportunity and jump to grab it.
So investor can start buy in stocks whose economic cycle is in the up swing or likely to get that advantage. Now the markets are almost bottomed out. I used to cry the same way I am doing now when the market topped at 6200 level and advised the investors to first sell the holdings and with more emphasis not to buy at that level. Now am just reversing the statement but the cry is with same volume.
Please go to the budget allocations and try to take advantage of the benefits from the excise & customs reductions that immensely benefit the companies. The Indian economy is robust and likely to take advantage of the global crisis in its favour, so try to enjoy the fall from these level instead of developing fear. The earlier article suggested for those who already invested.
The Nifty index level was simply a number to quote but the timing of buying stocks never depend on the index level unless the choice falls on index basket. The fall of index will help us to identify more blue chips as there was an opportunity opened to invest for next two years perspective. The trader any way live for the moment to day swing and grossly depend on the price fluctuation derived from the demand and supply but the investor is entirely a different entity, wait for the opportunity and jump to grab it.
So investor can start buy in stocks whose economic cycle is in the up swing or likely to get that advantage. Now the markets are almost bottomed out. I used to cry the same way I am doing now when the market topped at 6200 level and advised the investors to first sell the holdings and with more emphasis not to buy at that level. Now am just reversing the statement but the cry is with same volume.
Please go to the budget allocations and try to take advantage of the benefits from the excise & customs reductions that immensely benefit the companies. The Indian economy is robust and likely to take advantage of the global crisis in its favour, so try to enjoy the fall from these level instead of developing fear. The earlier article suggested for those who already invested.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
The mercy at the bottom…
The markets were spared at the bottom as the stocks still holding above the earlier lows when it registered two days back. The special treatment of leveling the levels of SBI to day happened but the stock is still in bulls grip. The FMCG stocks are the ones stood against the bear hammering.
The early statement of markets bottomed out can be confirmed incase our Nifty crosses the immediate resistance at 3255-50 level and the low shall be above 3181 is good, even 3145 is also OK. The Reliance and the other majors like LT, BHEL, HDFC and the tech majors are exhibiting a better bottom for now. So tomorrow a rally of 100 points at Nifty can through the much required relief at the earliest.
The redemption pressure is mounting as day’s passes and the negative news adding fuel to fire. So wait and watch till the worst crystallizes as a solid foundation to the markets at the bottom before jumping for grabbing the mouth watering prices of the blue chips.
The early statement of markets bottomed out can be confirmed incase our Nifty crosses the immediate resistance at 3255-50 level and the low shall be above 3181 is good, even 3145 is also OK. The Reliance and the other majors like LT, BHEL, HDFC and the tech majors are exhibiting a better bottom for now. So tomorrow a rally of 100 points at Nifty can through the much required relief at the earliest.
The redemption pressure is mounting as day’s passes and the negative news adding fuel to fire. So wait and watch till the worst crystallizes as a solid foundation to the markets at the bottom before jumping for grabbing the mouth watering prices of the blue chips.
No longs ….
The trades are now very much confining to intraday but no longs till markets cross the 3350-3400 decisively on Nifty.
The markets are dwindling to positive and negative news as the case may be but won’t go any where from here. The regular readers will find the piece of news about the 20-20 percent move.
This time the markets met the final leg of fall in case it goes down, it will be confined to the worst scenario case to 2630-80 level that to after a consolidation of 40-50 trading days.
The economic activity will be centered around the infra structure building like ports, air ports and SEZs. The mining activity will take place heavily in 2010 onwards. But for now the projects initiated like power and distribution companies will do well in coming months along with the cable manufacturers.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long it trades above 3130-3120 level. The US and other Asian markets red will force us to open in red but no fresh shors are advised at this point. The markets will get short covering above 3280 level and will add at least150 points. The Reliance above 1460-80 level will spur the short covering activity until it reaches 1680 level, then the market is ripe for fresh shorts that will give safety and high returns with out nightmares.
The markets are dwindling to positive and negative news as the case may be but won’t go any where from here. The regular readers will find the piece of news about the 20-20 percent move.
This time the markets met the final leg of fall in case it goes down, it will be confined to the worst scenario case to 2630-80 level that to after a consolidation of 40-50 trading days.
The economic activity will be centered around the infra structure building like ports, air ports and SEZs. The mining activity will take place heavily in 2010 onwards. But for now the projects initiated like power and distribution companies will do well in coming months along with the cable manufacturers.
For today, the Nifty is strong so long it trades above 3130-3120 level. The US and other Asian markets red will force us to open in red but no fresh shors are advised at this point. The markets will get short covering above 3280 level and will add at least150 points. The Reliance above 1460-80 level will spur the short covering activity until it reaches 1680 level, then the market is ripe for fresh shorts that will give safety and high returns with out nightmares.
Monday, October 20, 2008
The Repo rate cut effect…
The RBI has taken a bold step to reduce the Repo rate by 100 basis points. The markets would have welcomed other wise by 500 points on the announcement itself but failed to hold the gains made during the trading hours.
The markets are now likely to move up from these levels in case if the global indices won’t take severe knock. The only concern at this point is the corporate performance. The results announced till date are not bothering but the fear of future is threatening the growth in advancement of the Indices as a whole.
The Nifty draggers like tech lot bounced with vengeance and RIL got enough support at the lower level except DLF. The ONGC, BHEL, Unitech and DLF may try to boost the Nifty to cross the 3350 level which is very crucial.
The markets are now likely to move up from these levels in case if the global indices won’t take severe knock. The only concern at this point is the corporate performance. The results announced till date are not bothering but the fear of future is threatening the growth in advancement of the Indices as a whole.
The Nifty draggers like tech lot bounced with vengeance and RIL got enough support at the lower level except DLF. The ONGC, BHEL, Unitech and DLF may try to boost the Nifty to cross the 3350 level which is very crucial.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Still far away but…….
The Indian markets were in deep trouble at the face of it. The Nifty was deep in red and far away from the near term support. The brutal damage was done from the heavy weights like RIL, RPL, ONGC, RCOM and reality & Infra majors like DLF, UNITECH, L T and Rel Infra apart from the metal sector as a lot. The banking sector stood against the onslaught of Bear hammering in spite of the global financial turmoil. The fresh short positions in the beaten down sectors will be very dangerous as they can get trapped easily.
Now the Nifty will get fresh lease of life only when it trades above 3350 and the first batch of strong resistance points starts from 3600-3620 level.
The RIL has to cross the resistance at 1550 and trade above 1420 at least for two trading days. The ONGC has to cross and trade above 850 level.
The reality sector majors except UNITECH are exhibiting some bargain hunting buying in DLF, IB Real estate and in GMR infra.
The long term buyers can start buying the blue chips irrespective of their price and the fear of loss. The Indian economy is continued to do well despite the global slow down. At this point it looks like the emerging new age world economy is shrugging off the traditional & old business icons and paving for a robust vibrant economy.
Now the Nifty will get fresh lease of life only when it trades above 3350 and the first batch of strong resistance points starts from 3600-3620 level.
The RIL has to cross the resistance at 1550 and trade above 1420 at least for two trading days. The ONGC has to cross and trade above 850 level.
The reality sector majors except UNITECH are exhibiting some bargain hunting buying in DLF, IB Real estate and in GMR infra.
The long term buyers can start buying the blue chips irrespective of their price and the fear of loss. The Indian economy is continued to do well despite the global slow down. At this point it looks like the emerging new age world economy is shrugging off the traditional & old business icons and paving for a robust vibrant economy.
The Projections & Targets…..
The technical analysts try to provide the targets for both the Index and for the selected stocks. They offer normally to retail investors much later than they were circulated among the dedicated. The beautiful projections enable the retail investor to go for loans and the threats of further fall forces them to liquidate their positions in distress.
These unfortunate situations always happen on both the extremes of the stock market movements. The seasoned investors are also prey to these kinds of statements because of the GREED & FEAR. I request the investors to refrain from these kinds of emotional swings while investing and exiting.
Those who look for a multi-bagger opportunity, the markets are now opening the doors. Instead of investing at the fag end of the rally and go bust in down turn, it is prudent to provide some time to conduct research to identify the sectors that out perform the Index in future. In case you need to get some guidance over the sectoral out performance and promising sector of tomorrow please go to the older posts.
The economic conditions have changed but the bright future for the growth sectors are in tact. So it is very important to invest & maintain in stock from a promising sector portfolio to make a Multibagger rather than simply picking a stock from the lot.
These unfortunate situations always happen on both the extremes of the stock market movements. The seasoned investors are also prey to these kinds of statements because of the GREED & FEAR. I request the investors to refrain from these kinds of emotional swings while investing and exiting.
Those who look for a multi-bagger opportunity, the markets are now opening the doors. Instead of investing at the fag end of the rally and go bust in down turn, it is prudent to provide some time to conduct research to identify the sectors that out perform the Index in future. In case you need to get some guidance over the sectoral out performance and promising sector of tomorrow please go to the older posts.
The economic conditions have changed but the bright future for the growth sectors are in tact. So it is very important to invest & maintain in stock from a promising sector portfolio to make a Multibagger rather than simply picking a stock from the lot.
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