The markets rallied quite sharply than anticipated and it left no big name lying dormant. The markets took the bad news to get the Bears caught in the wrong foot rallied nearly 250 points from a closing of 2657 to 2928 with in 3 days is quite dramatic but it is a fact of life in the stock market.
The markets poised to close near to positive territory just because of RIL and RPL vibrant move in the late hour forced the rest to cover their loses be it ICICI, Rel Infra, LT, DLF, SBI or the other losers. The telecoms like Bharti and RCOM are moving in positive territory for the last 3-4 days. The Infras especially the housing sector now is betting on affordable houses.
The big news is that the Govt. withdrew the case against RIL and suggesting for a negotiator to settle the issue between the brothers over the gas supply and pricing. This has prompted an up move of 25 % in RNRL and recovery to cross the 1295 hurdle in RIL price.
The markets may find a fresh selling pressure due to the steep rise and the die-hard Bears any way go for an average selling, quite right at this point in time to get out from huge losses built from 2550.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
The US won’t….
The big brother US won’t give us the opportunity to strike the base camps of the terrorist groups in Pakistan. The close associate of US, Pakistan cannot dare to challenge its big brother’s suggestions and its ability to face our forces also a big question mark. The UPA political mileage plans are confined to preparations only to put pressure on the neighbour.
The markets took the advantage of adverse news to corner the Bears to buy at higher prices. The negative news of possible war, the negative rating of DLF and the other existing uncertainties of economic growth were put into a bundle to corner the Bears. The Nifty staged a decent recovery to cross the resistance at 2935 amidst of bad news flow.
The Nifty took the Bulls support on Friday and they carried the journey by inviting the Bears to make shorts in DLF, UNITECH, HDIL, SUZLON and now they are opened to cover at higher prices. The situation will turn sour incase Nifty drifts below 2760 level for the mounting political tensions or any other reason then it will be disaster like situation on the bourses.
Now the Nifty has to trade above 2835-29 level. The RIL has to trade above 1161-55 level. The laggards now will perform like Relcap which will become strong above 475, ONGC above 685, PunjLlyod above 158-59, Infy above 1220 and Satyam above 236-38 level.
The fall can be expected in HUL below 239, ITC below 168-69 and NTPC below 156-55 if they close below these support levels.
The markets took the advantage of adverse news to corner the Bears to buy at higher prices. The negative news of possible war, the negative rating of DLF and the other existing uncertainties of economic growth were put into a bundle to corner the Bears. The Nifty staged a decent recovery to cross the resistance at 2935 amidst of bad news flow.
The Nifty took the Bulls support on Friday and they carried the journey by inviting the Bears to make shorts in DLF, UNITECH, HDIL, SUZLON and now they are opened to cover at higher prices. The situation will turn sour incase Nifty drifts below 2760 level for the mounting political tensions or any other reason then it will be disaster like situation on the bourses.
Now the Nifty has to trade above 2835-29 level. The RIL has to trade above 1161-55 level. The laggards now will perform like Relcap which will become strong above 475, ONGC above 685, PunjLlyod above 158-59, Infy above 1220 and Satyam above 236-38 level.
The fall can be expected in HUL below 239, ITC below 168-69 and NTPC below 156-55 if they close below these support levels.
The up move …..
The markets missed the yesterday rally in the global markets due to holiday but it is likely that it will adjust by rise by 2-3%.
The majority participants are skeptical about the future prospects due to the sinking economies across the globe and the fearing to bet about the underling growth prospects. At this critical juncture India may not draw much share from the FII investment, to add the terrorist attacks spoiled the early recovery from the lows.
The solid band of 2810-2503-2784 from 14th Nov-08 till date, the markets went no where on points basis but has crated much hope and despair in the minds of Bulls and Bears, the investors are still not conclusive to make a final call. The only positive sign that can be drawn from the above 16 trading sessions is that the markets are in recovery path provided they cross the 2935 resistance.
The markets may open positive and may continue to rise in case the heavy weights float above their support levels as mentioned yesterday. The Nifty has immediate support above 2760 level and can continue to hold the buying till it trades below 2720-2716 level. In case of slide the RIL shall not trade below 1076-73 level and the SBI shall not trade below 1111-06 level. In case of violation of above said conditions then the markets are likely to see selling pressure and Bulls unwinding. The support to reality and infra may hold for some more time.
At 9.40 pm last night I prepared but the posting was not PUBLISHED, still I surprise how it has happened but for record sake I publish now.
The majority participants are skeptical about the future prospects due to the sinking economies across the globe and the fearing to bet about the underling growth prospects. At this critical juncture India may not draw much share from the FII investment, to add the terrorist attacks spoiled the early recovery from the lows.
The solid band of 2810-2503-2784 from 14th Nov-08 till date, the markets went no where on points basis but has crated much hope and despair in the minds of Bulls and Bears, the investors are still not conclusive to make a final call. The only positive sign that can be drawn from the above 16 trading sessions is that the markets are in recovery path provided they cross the 2935 resistance.
The markets may open positive and may continue to rise in case the heavy weights float above their support levels as mentioned yesterday. The Nifty has immediate support above 2760 level and can continue to hold the buying till it trades below 2720-2716 level. In case of slide the RIL shall not trade below 1076-73 level and the SBI shall not trade below 1111-06 level. In case of violation of above said conditions then the markets are likely to see selling pressure and Bulls unwinding. The support to reality and infra may hold for some more time.
At 9.40 pm last night I prepared but the posting was not PUBLISHED, still I surprise how it has happened but for record sake I publish now.
Monday, December 08, 2008
The Global pull but…….
The markets displayed a positive move to cross the resistance but failed to close above 2811-16 level.The Asian markets closed with gain around 5-6% but the Indian markets undergone profit booking.
The decent gains in NTPC, HUL is positive and sell of in ITC is a challenge. The disappointing stock in the banking sector is HDFC bank. I mentioned in my previous post about it’s under performance.
The late hour sell off from 2860 to 2780 level is a bad signal but the good sign is the leaders closed above their support levels, RIL above 1112 level and SBI above 1150 and Bhati made a decent come back to close above 700 level.
The decent gains in NTPC, HUL is positive and sell of in ITC is a challenge. The disappointing stock in the banking sector is HDFC bank. I mentioned in my previous post about it’s under performance.
The late hour sell off from 2860 to 2780 level is a bad signal but the good sign is the leaders closed above their support levels, RIL above 1112 level and SBI above 1150 and Bhati made a decent come back to close above 700 level.
Sunday, December 07, 2008
NOW Fiscal measures………
The Govt. of India has come out with a mini-budget like slew of measure to kick start the economy and the ailing sectors. The auto and the reality sectors are the fore runners of deceleration, put halt to southward journey. The auto sector will enjoy the CENVAT facility, lowered by 4%. The Maruti wanted to pass the full benefit to its coustomers but the others who already announced rate cuts in advance with this anticipation may announce their plans later, adjusting to market forces.
The Govt. planning to spend nearly 20,000 crores of rupees to stimulate the growth above 7%, focusing on infrastructure and core sector spending. To improve the exports, especially the cotton and fabric sector, textiles will get 2% reduction in interest upto Mar-09. The textile sector will get 1400 crores for Technology Upgradation Fund. A 350 crore export intensive scheme and a back up of 350 crores to ECGC (Export Credit Guarantee Corporation) for proving guarantee to exporters. The micro and small industry will get a collateral free lending support upto 1 cr from earlier 50 lakhs.
A special package on loans will be announced by the banks to encourage housing. The large amount of unmet demand for low cost housing will get a boost with the package which will have two categories, one below 50 lakhs and the other one between 5-20 lakhs category. The RBI plans to refinance 4000 cores to National Housing bank (NHB) to spur the growth in low cost housing to the poor. These measures will absorb the expanded capacity of cement and the demand for longs-steel may increase.
The IIFCL- India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd will raise 10,000 crores via bonds to finance the roads and other Infrastructure projects through Public- Private Partnership (PPP). The plans come through fast in implementation, 60 highway projects likely to get clearance.
The reality and the Infrastructure stocks are likely to get the benefit. The JP associates is good above 67 and likely to reach the 90 range, will become weak below 60-62 range. The GMR likely to cross the 71-73 resistance but the airports and the low traffic will be a drag for time being. The High way construction companies like Nagarjuna constructions, Mytas, IVRCL, C& C constructions, KNR constructions and low cost housing sector focused Omaxe and Orbit Corp. get the investor support. This euphoria will not live long as the uncertainties are still intact. The best is to focus on JP which is having cement and infra.
The Nifty is good above 2750 level and the bottom support is at 2662-63 level. In case the markets fall due to global pressure but will bounce back, gain momentum above 2750 to touch 3039-45 level. So the temporary slag shall be used for buying instead of going for short. Incase Nifty closes below 2520 level then sell the longs to buy again at lower levels
The markets become weak when the Rel Infra trades below and closes below 491-93 level. The Banking sector will lose the ground as a whole when SBI trades below 1056-53 level and Axis bank trades below 415-16. The ICICI bank trades and closes below 322-21level.
The laggards of the market at this point in time are ONGC and Reliance. The NTPC, ITC and HUL are becoming weak. The techs are losing ground but has little was left to gain. The earlier levels are valid to these stocks.
The Govt. planning to spend nearly 20,000 crores of rupees to stimulate the growth above 7%, focusing on infrastructure and core sector spending. To improve the exports, especially the cotton and fabric sector, textiles will get 2% reduction in interest upto Mar-09. The textile sector will get 1400 crores for Technology Upgradation Fund. A 350 crore export intensive scheme and a back up of 350 crores to ECGC (Export Credit Guarantee Corporation) for proving guarantee to exporters. The micro and small industry will get a collateral free lending support upto 1 cr from earlier 50 lakhs.
A special package on loans will be announced by the banks to encourage housing. The large amount of unmet demand for low cost housing will get a boost with the package which will have two categories, one below 50 lakhs and the other one between 5-20 lakhs category. The RBI plans to refinance 4000 cores to National Housing bank (NHB) to spur the growth in low cost housing to the poor. These measures will absorb the expanded capacity of cement and the demand for longs-steel may increase.
The IIFCL- India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd will raise 10,000 crores via bonds to finance the roads and other Infrastructure projects through Public- Private Partnership (PPP). The plans come through fast in implementation, 60 highway projects likely to get clearance.
The reality and the Infrastructure stocks are likely to get the benefit. The JP associates is good above 67 and likely to reach the 90 range, will become weak below 60-62 range. The GMR likely to cross the 71-73 resistance but the airports and the low traffic will be a drag for time being. The High way construction companies like Nagarjuna constructions, Mytas, IVRCL, C& C constructions, KNR constructions and low cost housing sector focused Omaxe and Orbit Corp. get the investor support. This euphoria will not live long as the uncertainties are still intact. The best is to focus on JP which is having cement and infra.
The Nifty is good above 2750 level and the bottom support is at 2662-63 level. In case the markets fall due to global pressure but will bounce back, gain momentum above 2750 to touch 3039-45 level. So the temporary slag shall be used for buying instead of going for short. Incase Nifty closes below 2520 level then sell the longs to buy again at lower levels
The markets become weak when the Rel Infra trades below and closes below 491-93 level. The Banking sector will lose the ground as a whole when SBI trades below 1056-53 level and Axis bank trades below 415-16. The ICICI bank trades and closes below 322-21level.
The laggards of the market at this point in time are ONGC and Reliance. The NTPC, ITC and HUL are becoming weak. The techs are losing ground but has little was left to gain. The earlier levels are valid to these stocks.
The Hope Vs Reality…
The markets were anxious to accept the stimulus package both from the Govt. and from the RBI for quite some time. The final count down of parliament elections begins once the count done completes for the state assembly results.
The global slow down relaxed the emerging markets oil burden and provided time to consolidate the growth progresses. The economic foundation of country like India is strong but needs external propeller to generate growth stimulus, until then we have to consolidate on internal resource and consumption.
The markets will consolidate until such time with a band of 20%+. The regular reader will notice the same was expressed log back and it continued till date. The sell-off at this point in time can happen on individual stock but not on the Index as a whole. The reverse is true for the rise.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom building process at 2600-2750 level for the last three weeks can go up from here but not as a rally. The challenge at this point is that the Nifty has to trade above 2750 and the high shall pierce the resistance at 2835-40 range. The Bulls got some relief signal to accept more risk to invest. This opportunity shall reflect tomorrow in the stock prices.
The SBI has strong resistance at 1220-40 level and it shall try to close above 1230 level to give confidence. The ICICI bank ADR shown nearly 10% rise on Friday night, a day in advance shall close above 371-73 level. The recent laggard of banking giant HDFC Bank has to cross the resistance at 940 level and close above 921-23 level will ensure that the markets accepted the stimulus package announced.
The global slow down relaxed the emerging markets oil burden and provided time to consolidate the growth progresses. The economic foundation of country like India is strong but needs external propeller to generate growth stimulus, until then we have to consolidate on internal resource and consumption.
The markets will consolidate until such time with a band of 20%+. The regular reader will notice the same was expressed log back and it continued till date. The sell-off at this point in time can happen on individual stock but not on the Index as a whole. The reverse is true for the rise.
The Nifty has made a decent bottom building process at 2600-2750 level for the last three weeks can go up from here but not as a rally. The challenge at this point is that the Nifty has to trade above 2750 and the high shall pierce the resistance at 2835-40 range. The Bulls got some relief signal to accept more risk to invest. This opportunity shall reflect tomorrow in the stock prices.
The SBI has strong resistance at 1220-40 level and it shall try to close above 1230 level to give confidence. The ICICI bank ADR shown nearly 10% rise on Friday night, a day in advance shall close above 371-73 level. The recent laggard of banking giant HDFC Bank has to cross the resistance at 940 level and close above 921-23 level will ensure that the markets accepted the stimulus package announced.
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