Friday, March 12, 2010

The "either way" move.....

The easing inflation fattened the Nifty with support drawing from Russia’s Putin tour to India. The NTPC effort to meet the power demand is Reliance gain, So today RIL shall cross the resistance stated yesterday and then may fall to bears but that didn’t deter the bulls to holdon. Now the Nifty is in positive teritory and bulls have 60points advantage.
The much stated visit shall provide answers to the heavy weight laggard to rise to a respectable level to touch 1015+. The US markets are offering negative cuse but we made a decent advance to stay above 5092 level. But the bulls as stated earlier may yield to bear pressure as it looks on the charts. The metal sector especially the ferrous now at cross roads will find its way for next major move. As such there was no major deviation from the yesterdays levels but the DLF and HDIL are looking South, may loose 3-5% if DLF fails to trade above 316 and HDIL above 314.
The IT majors may find few takers than the offerings due to the sustained rally from the budget it gained. So the Wipro will be weak below 700 and TCS below 765 levels.
The markets likely to get pressure from RIL if it fails to trade above 1026 level and the makets fails to trade above 5123-26 level, then the metals and reality bite the dust and the banks bull unwindening will trigger sharper correction than anticipated. If the markets gets good support at the current closing level the DLF, HDIL,Tatasteel and sesa goa will catchup along with RIL and ONGC. The TataMotors, stake sale by Daimler effect can be traced once the stock trades below 765 and it will pull down the MM and other automajors.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

The Bull Run is...but …????

The markets are in Bull grip but the steam is getting over as the developments over the budget bets are unfolding.
The major Nifty weitage stocks made the yearly highs especially the counters that triggered the current rally like Banks, IT majors, automobiles, cements and to some extent metals.
The serious drawback so far is the lack luster participation from the energy/oil sector majors, be it Reliance, ONGC, CAIRN,NTPC, Tatapower and the sideways movement in Bharti, RCOM and DLF also holding a cap on Nifty at 5135-40 level.
The favourable news like Nifty getting listed and the US futures getting listed in NSE may give some boost to overall market for sure.The strengthening of dollar can put value edition to the ITs and pharma but seriously impact the crude importers.
  • The Nifty levels are in positive territory so long it trades above 5090 and gain strength above 5126 level. The RIL is pulled out of the deep sinking position but not out of woods unless it trades above1020-22 level, the positional carriers can hold the stock upto 993-95 level.
  • Incase RIL fails to trade above 1036 in couple of days, it is heading south to touch 850 first and next 801-806 level.
  • The Nifty has reasonable support below 100 points to todays closing. The TataMotors, Tatasteel, Jindal steel, Ster and ONGC are becoming weak as of now. The steel output and the usage figures fillup some positive feel shall keep the TataSteel above 620 levels to avert the said damage. 
  • TataSteel is weak below 609 and good above 618, SBI is good above 2040 weak below 2020, ICICI is weak below 915 good above 925, RIL is weak below 1002 good above 1018, ONGC is weak below 1093-95 good above 1105, Ster is good above 816-20 weak below 801-798 level for this day. 
  • The territory fight from bulls will be over if the Nifty trades below 5103 level and bulls gain strength only when it absorbs the gains from the Budget run at lower level.