The Bears gain strength...

As posted earlier the markets reached a reasonable level from where the Bears take advantage to short the market. The final leg of 100-150 points of Nifty is an advantage to off load the stock to retail investor as the markets are ready to face the slow down numbers more wildly than before. The Inflation is no longer an issue but reviving the staggered investment plans and fear to face the future in the corporate minds is the real challenge. The markets will see the dwindling profit margins and “Put On Hold”- expansion plans, then the markets see….

The fight for survival…..3*12
The day displayed a strong fight for survival of the market at 2650 level.
As posted earlier the high light of the day is the smart recovery of SBI to
close above 1085. The RIL is struggling to gain strength to move up but it displayed a decent fight against the Bears. The ONGC and Bharti were subdued despite good effort by the Banking lot to move up. The star of the day is Tata Steel posted 10% rise with huge volume and the DLF made equal volume with good show to cross the 191-93 resistance.

The LIC Housing along and SUN gave above 20% rise in the non index shares is a clear sign of shuffling and choosing the future out performers. The techs lost the sheen due to foreign brokerage house CLSA report dented the growth in share rise, Infosys chopped
down by 4.3% Wipro TCS and Satyam were no exception.

The teleco lost value by 3-5% but the autos recovered on short covering. The Banking sector posted decent gains on the hopes of fall in inflation that can force the Central bank to take an early decision on rate cuts. The Nifty is at cross roads and waiting for break out. In case the RIL fails to cross the 1093 level and trades below 1040-35 then the markets will easily touch the 2000-2100 level with out much resistance from Bulls.

The SBI gained but the RIL, ONGC and Bharti are in negative territory with new members from tech sector. The Nifty is weak below 2670-80 level but gain strength above 2705-11 that can fuel fire in Bulls to
trap the Bears to cover their positions. In case BHEL and LT recovers then there was some glimmer of hope in the capital goods and Infrastructure sector that build due to the NHAI announcements.

Recovery but weak…..2*12

The markets took the support once it touched the low at 2571
level and it managed to claw back to close at 2657 level a much needed support to Nifty above 2630 level and the weakness in RIL and ONGC is a great concern at this point in time.

The Australia cut the lending rates by 100 bps and our top brass discussing for the timing. The stimulus package announced to has some
bearing on Infrastructure companies but the release of funds and the cost that matters a lot at this hour. The SEBI announcement of margin facility to all participants can improve the sentiment as the news flow infavour of Bull can propel the momentum in the Nifty levels back to 2800 levels.

In case the resistance at 2750 level crossed with ease, close above 2735-42 will add value to Bulls efforts. The bears will cover the positions as the positive news unfolds as progress progresses and the Nifty may touch again 3280-3300 level with short covering.

The only threatening concern unfolding is the verbal war with neighbours on Mumbai blasts can easily change the direction in case the situation provoked for a war on the terrorist camps.

The RIL has to cross the 1120 level, SBI has to cross the 1085 level and ONGC has to trade above 705level to see the Nifty to scale for new territory above 2860 level.

The Bears gain strength...

A classic formation….

The Nifty has made a classic formation in the last 7 trading sessions from 10th to 18th Dec. The 10th, 11th and 12th highs were as 2940, 2945 and 2937. The lows of 16th, 17th and 18th were 2963, 2943 and 2922. I noticed the averages worked out at 2940-42 level which is quite supportive above 2935 level I wrote in my previous posts.

It is evident that the markets likely to cross 3285 level so long it trades above 2930 level. The bull move cannot be negated until Nifty closes below 2860. The same formation is formed with the front line heavy weights.

The consolidation…

As suggested yesterday the market took a knock in the last one hour breaking the immediate support at 3010 level to touch 2940 level due to selling in the heavy weights. The markets are now in consolidation mode. The charts suggest that the support may emerge when the Nifty touches 2750 level. Today the support is expected at 286163 level and the resistance at 2993 and at 3011-13 level.
The Reliance is the early morning south runner but could hold the level at 1350 through out the day with 10-15 rupees swing. The higher level above 1390 could be a daunting task for now as the crude is in free fall. The ONGC will also see some knock today.

The HUL rally from 236 level to 256 level is heartening to bulls as the sole warrior survived in this Bears onslaught. Now the ICICI bank may loose some gains made yesterday, become weak below 432-31 level due to the selling pressure in the index counters. The earlier posts suggested good above 429 level holds good once again when it takes a U turn from the support levels at 406 and 393 level. Then the counter may cross the 490 level and could touch 520-25 level without much resistance. The NTPC is at the distribution mode at the higher level may see a correction of 20% from 166 level when it closes below that level.
The story of techs to our blog readers is quite evident and the worst victim of the frustration is Satyam. The bounce from 150 level to 203-05 is good to exit as it has tarnished it good image. The long-term selling is expected unless the company and the top investor come with rescue measures by announcing some important acquisitions above 500 million dollars to keep the earnings stream in tact.

The Maddoff..Losses...

The troubled assets due Maddoff deal could spill cascading effect as the days pass by. The market is surging to absorb the good news coupled with short covering. The markets are trading above the immediate support level at 2935 well above that level close despite of the momentum in the upwards has reduced considerably.

The positive side of the up move is that the RIL touched the 1395 level well above the 1356 resistance level. The rebound of the ONGC above 694 level cross the resistance above 705 is a favourable sign. The slow down sectors paid much lower advance taxes reflects the slowing growth and business expansion may pull down the indices by 200 points to 2700-2800 level.The advancement of Bharti, NTPC, ITC and HUL will yield to selling pressure apart from the RPL and RIL.

Valuable hold above….

As expected the markets are above the important support levels despite the global slump. The Nifty crossed the major resistance of the first upward move and it could hold above that level as suggested in my earlier postings.
The Nifty has support at 2750 and for today it has support at 2861-63 level. The volatility is visible in stocks but the Nifty reduced to a band.

The move came from the weakest is the cause of worry- the Reliance and the RPL taking baton from the Reality pack that emerged star performer due to the package support and interest rate cuts. The RIL is good so long it trades above 1281-76 level both for the stock and for the Nifty. The Nifty may face resistance at 2991-96 level.

The DLF may yield to selling pressure below 278 level, the RELinfra weak below 659-61 level, Relcap is weak below 540 for this day. The banking giant SBI weak below 1220 level and the up move can be expected after it touches 1134 and holds above 1158-61 level. The ICICI bank upper side move resumes once it touches 371-73 level and trades above 406-8.