Saturday, September 06, 2008

The "Big Win" & political compulsions….

The economically and politically strong Big Brother US, determined efforts by Bush and the administration could make it possible to see that the NSG approve the waiver to India. The historic day closed the decades of nuclear isolation and opened new doors for both energy security and the business opportunity. The countries like New Zealand, Austria, Norway Ireland and our neighbor China made the Indian officials run pillar to post to convince them who expressed serious reservations for such a waiver. Our well know deal maker and cracker, the External Affairs Minister, Pranab Mukharjee made the last minute efforts by bringing his expertise to a focal point, made the history.
In my earlier posts mentioned about the biggest beneficiaries of the N-deal, estimated that a business of 40 billion dollars over a period of 10 years. This is nothing but an assured business to our capital goods, power and infra companies. The ancillary units small and medium may find their cake. The external business opportunity is enormous apart from the mining operations that the country will open in search of Uranium, in the locally available mineral rich states to ensure a buffer stock.
The Singur trouble is getting sign of amicable solution, the Tata’s has to decide. The big issues are being settled amicably may give some signs of relief.

The Nifty may get bottom support in spite of the global melt down; a de-coupled movement in the short-term is expected. The short term benefits are negligible with the deal, the HNIs, MFs and the FIIs many not jump to buy these stocks but at least don’t throw away the blue chips when the exuberance is high.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Friday, September 05, 2008

The N-deal confusion.....

The Indian govt. was forced to take defensive steps on a sliding floor with little grip over the issue. The present situation is now a forced compulsive acceptance of the dictates by the might. The political situation has become fluid till concrete facing measures are taken thought a different interpretation to the presentation of the issue.
The equity markets across the globe no matter what the present rate at which crude is trading or the falling inflation but worried on the deceleration of the economic growth. This situation is worse with the emerging markets whose dependence is more on US, the real trigger of trouble opened.
The Indian markets may escape the deep cut if the NSG accepts the India’s proposal on N-deal, then a huge investment opportunity can be generated for next 10 years, be it in capital goods, construction or in mining. Let’s wait and hope for the best.

The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: The markets as of now are in line with the global cues. The Nifty made a low at 4328.90 (….. the strength will be gained fast if it holds above the immediate support level at 4343-41 level).

The RIL is good at 2100-2097 level, the next support at 2081-79 level. The RIL made a high at 2105 and low at 2065.

The ONGC may get support at 1023-20 level, made low at 1040.15, a very good support.
The Infy may get support at 1706-08 level will become weak below 1690 level, today low at 1706.50

The DLF is in the yesterday levels. DLF made a high at 515.5 from where the rally triggered two days back.(…The DLF is good above 515 levels and it shall not trade below 503 levels…)

The Tata Steel may fined some new bottom at 560 level or even below, low touched at 555.0
The RCOM once again get support at 379-81 level, but likely to see a new bottom, low touched at 384.50

The SBI has support at 1467-71 level and next support at 1446-45 level. The low touched at 1470.0


The ICICI bank may get first support at 678-81 level and may find buyers at 661-59 level, The low touched at 680


The Relcap may get support at 1305-03 level and the best could be at 1281-83 level. The low touched at 1307.20

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The Wall crumbles….

The Wallstreet crumbled last night and fell on the Asian markets, cracking by more than 2.5%. The Indian markets are about to face the threat, the strength will be gained fast if it holds above the immediate support level at 4343-41 level. The Hang Seng is struggling to hold the bottoms as it is continuously bleeding, today lost by 555 points and the Nikkei is beaten down with its economic and political troubles lost 320 points.

The ADRs slumped by 5% in banking stocks and the techs lost by more than 2%.
The troubled times exhibits opportunities to the institutional investors to come forward and buy the blue chips. The underperformer has to get the bottom support and investors shall come forward to buy at the so called higher levels rather than resorting for profit booking/shorting with pessimistic view. In this category the reality sector, especially DLF has to trade above 520 and cross the 570-75 resistance, then the markets see a sustained buying. The Infy may manage to float above the support at 1640 level and may shuttle between 1770-1640 range till the second quarter results. In case Infy close & trades below the 1690 level and the Satyam trades below 409-06 support level could become the first signs of cracking in the IT stocks.
The technical bottom supports may not come to rescue when the floods of supply is offered. But the broad range can give some idea of the movements.
The RIL is good at 2100-2097 level, the next support at 2081-79 level.
The ONGC may get support at 1023-20 level.
The Infy may get support at 1706-08 level will become weak below 1690 level.
The DLF is in the yesterday levels.
The Tata Steel may fine some new bottom at 560 level or even below.
The RCOM once again get support at 379-81 level, but likely to see a new bottom.
The SBI has support at 1467-71 level and next support at 1446-45 level.
The ICICI bank may get first support at 678-81 level and may find buyers at 661-59 level.
The Relcap may get support at 1305-03 level and the best could be at 1281-83 level.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

The FALLING inflation....

The Asian Markets were down so was our markets. The markets behaved in line with our expectations but very choppy trade might have forced to book losses every time due to the swings.

The inflation in a consecutive second week fell to 12.34% from 12.40% may give some more strength to Bulls but the foreign debt rose by 30% to touch more than 221 billion dollars is a long term concern.

The ECBs rose by 49 % to touch 62.02 billion dollars as on 31st March this year. The External Commercial Barrowings raised by the Indian corporate world will put lot of pressure on the companies as the dollar appreciated from 39 to 44 rupees during this year. So any slow down in implementation of projects and postponing the commissioning of such projects will impact the bottom line.

The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: The traders might have noticed that the Nifty took support at 4450 level and later decisively at 4419.35 as suggested in the morning posting. (The Nifty has bottom support at 4449-51 level as first support and the better one at 4421-19 level).

For today, the RIL has resistance at 2243-41 level and the support at 2161-65 level. The RIL touched a low at 2132 and the high registered at 2250.The ONGC may get support at 1065 level. The low registered at 1052.80 but it did not trade below 1065 level.The SBIN has resistance at 1553-56 level above that level it will touch 1591-89 level. The Support expected to come at 1471-67 level. The SBI low touched at 1461.45 and high touched at 1546.70

The ICICI will rally further if it trades above740 level, the immediate resistance at 729-31 level, support can be expected at 691-693 level. The High touched at 730 and the low touched at 694.15

The RCOM one of the weakest stock in the Nifty is good above 405-03 level and may find resistance at 411-15 range, the reasonable support at 391-93 level. The RCOM high touched at 405.0 and the low touched at 392.0

The DLF is good above 515 levels and it shall not trade below 503 levels to see the up move continued in future. The DLF high touched at 531.5 and the low touched at 506.25

The Tata Steel failed to cross the resistance at 591 and the SAIL failed to cross 153-154 level. The RPL failed to cross the resistance at 161 and the support at 153-57 level was not violated either.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The creeping uncertainties….

We are there but there are developments across the globe, now the second biggest economy Japan facing political uncertainties as the Prime Minister resigned on 2nd, but the Nikkei closed in positive territory on 3rd, the Hang Seng lost 457 points but we were at Ganesh Puja.

The real challenge is that the previous jubilant mood can be carried further as the new opportunity at hand can be used by Bulls is the question at this moment?. The newspaper headlines quoting on the Indo-US nuclear deal that come for discussions at the NSG meet will reveal the conditions and proposed restrictions on India to conduct future nuclear tests. The Asian markets are bleeding in red as Hang Seng lost 140 points, Nikkei lost 45 points and the SGX is now quoting at 4450 level a 55 points down from the Friday closing.

The Nifty has to cross and trade above 4539-41 level to continue the up move to become a trend in the coming days. The Nifty has bottom support at 4449-51 level as first support and the better one at 4421-19 level. This can be achieved only when the RIL trades above 2220 level and the high shall cross the serious resistance at 2265 level. The ONGC is in better place good above 1065 level, so today it won’t considerably fall below that level.

For today, the RIL has resistance at 2243-41 level and the support at 2161-65 level.
The ONGC may get support at 1065 level. The SBIN has resistance at 1553-56 level above that level it will touch 1591-89 level. The Support expected to come at 1471-67 level.
The ICICI will rally further if it trades above740 level, the immediate resistance at 729-31 level, support can be expected at 691-693 level. The RCOM one of the weakest stock in the Nifty is good above 405-03 level and may find resistance at 411-15 range, the reasonable support at 391-93 level.
The reality pack may get some selling pressure, the DLF is good above 515 levels and it shall not trade below 503 levels to see the up move continued in future.
The Tata Steel, Sail and RPL are in their previous levels.
The NTPC and BHEL will see a knee jerk reaction in case any negative developments at NSG meeting. Incase NTPC trades below 171.90 and BHEL trades below 1646 level, expect some smoke before the fire engulfs.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Wednesday, September 03, 2008

DOUBTS REMAINED……

The Indian markets moved up but left as debris of doubts while moving in such haste. The Bulls took the short-term advantage to make the retail shorts are covered in fear triggered further rally in Friday trades. The crude sliding from the important support level is a welcome sign as it would offer us to reduce the external fiscal burden due to oil imports. The India’s economy may stay for a while with out generating further fear of slow down in our growth.

The strength in which our companies are operating is being put to pressure as there is considerable change in the economic conditions and the global slow down. The Indian exports are less than 2% when compared to world trade but for us as those three Olympic medals are so worthy to celebrate with out comparing the China’s, likewise the growth in our exports stimulates our confidence to compete in the world competition.

The Friday move in banking sector and the reality sector are more than they deserve at this juncture. The move will help to off load some more quantity while it turns to ride down southwards. But the technicals suggest that the Nifty far away from the verge of fall. The Nifty is good above 4435, as an immediate support level but the conditions favour the bulls so long it trades above 4365 level. So the Nifty may correct from these levels but doesn’t offer a situation for naked shorts at this critical juncture.


The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

The''LONG" weighted.........

The Bulls made a killing in the bourses, along waited accumulation sparked with a stellar performance that even greeted the new RBI Governor.

The regular readers will notice the developments and the levels suggested were in line with the performance of the markets. A copy of the earlier suggestion will be pasted for study and reference……
Yester day posted as the markets may recover on the back of RIL up move which can save the markets if it trades above 2120 level and weak below 2104-06 level. The RIL got support at 2125. The ONGC is weak below 1015-18 level and good above 1040 level which may not possible to day(yesterday expected).But see the ONGC move today made, regidtered low at 1040.

I categorically mentioned in my previous posts as …. The Nifty as earlier said has support at 4280 level but it shall not trade below that level as it is a sacrosanct level with a small consideration up to 4240 level that could become as a last chance. The upper side pressure are used as opportunities to buy the stocks, enables the Bulls to run smoothly “turf clearing” exercise for a big up side move.

I clearly mentioned in the morning about the stock specific action and the equities fall in line with global action, likely take off at stocks like SBI, Relcap, ICICI bank, DLF, JP, RCOM and even Cairn fell as expected in the morning, the moves gone in our favour as the crude crashed even to 104 dollars breaching the 110-115 band.


Please try to read my earlier posts for better understanding of this situation.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.


Welcome SubbaRao….

The hearty welcome to Subba Rao to the helm of affairs at RBI to give a jubilant growth oriented financial directions to Indian economy.

The markets are good to hold above the immediate support level at 4280 level. The markets are likely to get more room to go upward as the resistance is decreasing. The SGX Nifty is now trading flat at 4370 with positive bias. The Hang Seng is struggling to stay above positive territory by 5 points but the Nikkei is in positive territory with 60 points up.

The markets move now will be determined by the global equity movements. The local news triggers are now company specific. The Suzlon buy in RE power reaches to 90% stake- the stock is good above 220 level and has bottom support at 208 and at 203.
The long drawn dispute went in favour of RCOM with Tata Communications may give some boost to the sagging stock price to float above 393 level, good above 406-05 weak below 381.
The fall in crude prices may dampen the Cairn but will help the BPCL, HPCL and the aviation sector.
The Tata Steel plans to buy the mine reserves may help the stock to move up as a temporary relief, good above 591 and may move to 640 level in line with the market movement.
The banking sector especially the SBI is good above 1375 level and can be considered that the markets lost the steam if it falls below 1340 level. For today, good above 1408-06 level may touch 1460 level.
The ICICI bank is good above 672 level and weak below 659 level, likely to touch 720 level in the coming days. The Relcap is struggling to cross the resistance at 1420-40 range which may live for some more time. It is good above 1380 level but weak below 1349 level.
The DLF could cross the 491 resistance may touch 540 level for today it has resistance at 509-11 level and once 515 resistance crossed may rally to 540 level.
The JP is good above 163 level and weak below 159 level.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Monday, September 01, 2008

The bottom building….

The global weakness was defied by the Indian markets though the fall was used to build positions. The markets are in bottom building exercise that helps the Nifty to stay above 4285 level. Today Nifty made a high of 4365 and the low touched at 4281.35. Yesterday night posted as (….……The Nifty has bottom support at 4281-83 level, keeps the faith in the up move).
In the morning it was posted as ...(The markets may recover on the back of RIL up move which can save the markets if it trades above 2120 level and weak below 2104-06 level.
The ONGC is weak below 1015-18 level and good above 1040 level which may not possible to day.
The Tata Steel that recovered on Friday has to trade above 591 level and good above 605 level. The Sail is good above 151-53 level).
The RIL and ONGC saved the day with out further damage; markets welcomed the RIL’s decision to cancel the proposed idea to transfer the assets of KG basin. The metal stocks turned weak as expected and the banking counters maintained the previous trend developed on Friday.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

The continuation…….

The Bull move that filled confidence in the markets is likely to be challenged to day. The fall in the US and the weak Asian markets may fill distress in our markets. The SGX Nifty is now trading with 70 points loss at 4290 level, The Hang Seng is down by 375 points but the Nikkei is in negative territory with 180 points down.

The markets may recover on the back of RIL up move which can save the markets if it trades above 2120 level and weak below 2104-06 level. The ONGC is weak below 1015-18 level and good above 1040 level which may not possible to day. The Tata Steel that recovered on Friday has to trade above 591 level and good above 605 level. The Sail is good above 151-53 level.
The banking lot enthused by the falling inflation has support at the bottom level as they emerged to stay in positive territory with their 7 % up in Friday trades.
The reality sector which is dwindling, moving like pendulum may once again get the momentum once again. The DLF is weak below 485 and good above 491-93 level. The India Bulls real estate may face resistance at 291-93 level can touch 270-69 level. The sugar sector may find takers below 5-7% from the current levels. The Renuka is good at 103-105 level, Balrampur is good at 81-79 level. The level could become a very good opportunity to enter in an outperforming sector.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.

Sunday, August 31, 2008

The Years ahead ….

The Bulls combined effort to bring the Nifty to a better level was based on selectively risen stocks with low volumes. The global weakness is always threatening to emerging markets like India to move up.

The euphoria that was generated yester day may be well challenged by the Bears if the Nifty fails to trade above 4375-79 level and shall cross the 4411-14 level to confirm the bull strength. The Nifty has bottom support at 4281-83 level, keeps the faith in the up move.

The RIL has scrapped the bad idea of transferring the assets of KG basin to it subsidiaries when the stock tanked by 15% from its recent highs. The ONGC expansion plans were not so enthused the markets as they were treated as long-term investments that can protect the depleting reserves of Bombay high. The Tata Steel consolidated results were good but the falling steel prices threaten to keep the growth even though the raw material prices are also falling.

Now the markets ready to accept the info stocks dependant on US revenue resources are likely to be down graded as the chances of Obama winning the presidential elections improves. The clear down trend can be seen if Satyam trades below 405-401 level and Infy trades below 1640 level.

The infra structure stocks are likely to gain strength as the investments in India likely to see a sea change after the new govt. takes oath in office of power in May-09. The long-term investors can make a bargain hunting in the infra structure stocks. In short term the focus will be in commodity business as the demand expansion took place before a planned investment in resource expansion.

The 3G policy has big promise to Telecom stocks but the internet service providers will eat away big chunk of profits as the Internet- telephony is to explode in India.
The broad band service likely to took over the mobile communication as the govt. will to go video-conference in a big way in coming two-three years for better governance. The retail and manufacturing companies will use this opportunity for management of raw material and finished product. After three or four year’s time power generation and power trading will have great future as the planned projects will be operationalised by that time.

The STOCK-TRADING is a “Skill-FULL Job”. NEVER blame others for the LOSS/DEALS.
Never Forget: I may be wrong, You may be wrong but markets always RIGHT.