The inflation dips to 8.9 %(wow) but no joy to celebrate at the bourses. The fall in the inflation and the low commodity prices will give a breather to the FM and the RBI to chalk out a plan to go a rate cut. The RBI may for 50bps rate cut in CRR and repo rate cut to enhance the liquidity in the system. The stock markets are reeling under heavy Bear pressure and the global situation adding fuel to fire to kill our/ emerging markets as they are at the sprouting stage.
The immediate first aid help to markets considered completed when Nifty crosses the 2680 level. Today the strength in Nifty came from the lows with the SBI spike, HDFC recovery that came from its lows and the Bharti support may turn positive for tomorrow. The Reliance has to cross the last four days closing at 1135-41 level can support the falling market. The SBI has to cross the 1155-58 resistance. The ICICI bank will help the Index by crossing the resistance at 440 level. The ONGC has to cross the 690-93 level, the DLF may cross the 236-39 level. The above levels can be used as the first signs of revival and the move of HDFC and HDFC bank rise from their yearly lows provide strength to Nifty. As mentioned in the earlier posts, the techs are neutral in the Nifty direction.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
STOP TALKING…..
The IBM Ad says “STOP TALKING-START DOING”-the only mantra for economy revival.
The govt. is taking advantage of the crisis for the political mileage and asking the industry to go for price cut that can reflect in votes as the public can perceive the difference and can feel the comfort.
The economy is good when compare with the world top economies but our dependence on investment is also high even though our internal consumption is strong and the scope for infrastructure is huge.
The backing sector is crumbling with the bad news of rising bad debts and the MFs are facing the pressure from “the weight of redeem” as the uncertainty is enlarging
The Nifty finally closed at 2635 level, a clear bounce in the world indices can propel our Nifty to scale high other wise it will live like a laggard for next two quarters. The Nifty shall try to bounce back to 2860 level then it may confirm the recent bottom is the low for the rest of the year but the news flow and the govt. attempts are not favouring.
The Nifty now has to cross the immediate resistance at 2800-2810. this can be achieved incase RIL can bounce back to cross the resistance at 1189-93 level and can send positive feelers if it can trade above 1225 level, Bharti above 685-90 level, ONGC above 720 level. The ITC, REL infra, HUL and DLF will add their support. The INFY, TCS, Wipro are now neutral and the banking major SBI is seriously under bear grip, so is the financial sector.
The govt. is taking advantage of the crisis for the political mileage and asking the industry to go for price cut that can reflect in votes as the public can perceive the difference and can feel the comfort.
The economy is good when compare with the world top economies but our dependence on investment is also high even though our internal consumption is strong and the scope for infrastructure is huge.
The backing sector is crumbling with the bad news of rising bad debts and the MFs are facing the pressure from “the weight of redeem” as the uncertainty is enlarging
The Nifty finally closed at 2635 level, a clear bounce in the world indices can propel our Nifty to scale high other wise it will live like a laggard for next two quarters. The Nifty shall try to bounce back to 2860 level then it may confirm the recent bottom is the low for the rest of the year but the news flow and the govt. attempts are not favouring.
The Nifty now has to cross the immediate resistance at 2800-2810. this can be achieved incase RIL can bounce back to cross the resistance at 1189-93 level and can send positive feelers if it can trade above 1225 level, Bharti above 685-90 level, ONGC above 720 level. The ITC, REL infra, HUL and DLF will add their support. The INFY, TCS, Wipro are now neutral and the banking major SBI is seriously under bear grip, so is the financial sector.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
The G-20 effect….
The counties like India whose economic strength and the opportunity to give higher returns to PE players/direct FII investment in core sectors is intact but the global turmoil has dampened the foreign inflow. The high slogans of G-20 heads has limited use as there was no concrete steps to meet the global financial demands and steps to spur the slowing economic growth.
The countries across the world are fascinated to announce that they are facing economic slow down/recession. The top head lines confirm that each day, day after a day, one or the other country either it could be European or Asian proudly announcing the above statement and seeking for help. The G-20 nations at home may reduce the interest rates and increase the money supply to avert the gravity of economic slow down.
The classic rebound from the Diwali Nifty high may produce much required hope to Bulls but the Nifty is currently trading below the support level. Now the concern at home is about the bad debts and the rise. The Govt. shall increase steps to spend more and build confidence to Industry to go for expansion albeit a slower pace. The previous post levels of the companies are not changed but NTPC the sole company in the lot exhibited resilience and made sharp recovery to above 150 levels.
The Nifty will loose the earlier said support at 2630 level and may go down below 2500 level unless the Reserve Bank of India announces the repo rate cut by Wednesday, as the inflationary pressures are showing clear signs of easing. The worst case the RBI can wait for a day, till it finds the clear picture after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The countries across the world are fascinated to announce that they are facing economic slow down/recession. The top head lines confirm that each day, day after a day, one or the other country either it could be European or Asian proudly announcing the above statement and seeking for help. The G-20 nations at home may reduce the interest rates and increase the money supply to avert the gravity of economic slow down.
The classic rebound from the Diwali Nifty high may produce much required hope to Bulls but the Nifty is currently trading below the support level. Now the concern at home is about the bad debts and the rise. The Govt. shall increase steps to spend more and build confidence to Industry to go for expansion albeit a slower pace. The previous post levels of the companies are not changed but NTPC the sole company in the lot exhibited resilience and made sharp recovery to above 150 levels.
The Nifty will loose the earlier said support at 2630 level and may go down below 2500 level unless the Reserve Bank of India announces the repo rate cut by Wednesday, as the inflationary pressures are showing clear signs of easing. The worst case the RBI can wait for a day, till it finds the clear picture after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
The Nifty is weak……
The Nifty is weak below the 2930 level and waiting for some positive triggers to cross the 3080-3100 level. The consolidation of Nifty around 2500-3500 level will take at least a quarter and half, and then the up move may cross the serious resistance at 3680 level and at 3900 level. Incase Nifty trades above 2860 and crosses the minor resistance at 2950 level, then it is good to go long in the power and infra stocks but as of now the Nifty is looking south-wards than the otherwise.
The RIL is weak below 1236-41 level, The ONGC is weak below 735 level, The SBI is weak below 1269-73 level, The ICICI is weak below 441-43 level, The DLF is weak below 269-66 level, The TATA STEEL is weak below 196-93 level, The BHEL is weak below 1380-1420 level, The LT is weak below 880-86 level and Relcap is weak below 665-70 level.
The Rel infra is strong and good above 560-68 level, NTPC is strong and positive above 151-53 level, ITC is good above 173 level. These 3 companies are loosing their ground despite of their good show in the last two weeks.
The divergence in the move from negative to positive is expected in the telecom stocks as the foreign companies are interested in our telecom sector. The RCOM is weak below 239-43 level, The BHARTI is weak below 719-23 level but these counters are in accumulation mode.
The RIL is weak below 1236-41 level, The ONGC is weak below 735 level, The SBI is weak below 1269-73 level, The ICICI is weak below 441-43 level, The DLF is weak below 269-66 level, The TATA STEEL is weak below 196-93 level, The BHEL is weak below 1380-1420 level, The LT is weak below 880-86 level and Relcap is weak below 665-70 level.
The Rel infra is strong and good above 560-68 level, NTPC is strong and positive above 151-53 level, ITC is good above 173 level. These 3 companies are loosing their ground despite of their good show in the last two weeks.
The divergence in the move from negative to positive is expected in the telecom stocks as the foreign companies are interested in our telecom sector. The RCOM is weak below 239-43 level, The BHARTI is weak below 719-23 level but these counters are in accumulation mode.
The fall exhibits….
The Indian markets are grossly underperforming the rest of Asia due to the cropping local issues that are there but dormant.
The production cut backs are now spreading form auto mobile to cotton industry, diamond industry & agri exporters’ dependant on US. The bad news engulfed the infrastructure slow down inspite of lower metal and cement process. The real-estate boom became a doom spoiled the spiraling steel prices party, now a situation to cut the production both hot rolled and cold rolled products. The fall in commodity prices did not helped the industry due to the wide-spread “fear of spending”, the sole reason for this slowdown/recession in the developing nations. The classical example is the shutdown of plants by reliance.
The local demand is not exhausted at the consumer level especially countries like India but the think-tank high level community spreading the voices of vicious feelings that “it could happen in India like US”. So the belt tightening measures controlled the loan disbursal and the consequential impact is known to every body.
NIFTY LEVELS will be posted in the follwing post after 8pm.
The production cut backs are now spreading form auto mobile to cotton industry, diamond industry & agri exporters’ dependant on US. The bad news engulfed the infrastructure slow down inspite of lower metal and cement process. The real-estate boom became a doom spoiled the spiraling steel prices party, now a situation to cut the production both hot rolled and cold rolled products. The fall in commodity prices did not helped the industry due to the wide-spread “fear of spending”, the sole reason for this slowdown/recession in the developing nations. The classical example is the shutdown of plants by reliance.
The local demand is not exhausted at the consumer level especially countries like India but the think-tank high level community spreading the voices of vicious feelings that “it could happen in India like US”. So the belt tightening measures controlled the loan disbursal and the consequential impact is known to every body.
NIFTY LEVELS will be posted in the follwing post after 8pm.
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