BIOSIMILARS....OPPORTUNITY UNFOLDING...!!!

Biosimilars are the next big thing for Indian pharma
By: Pallavi Ail | Mumbai | December 27, 2014 1:31 amWhile the US is still ironing out its rules governing generic equivalents of biologic drugs, also known as biosimilars, the Indian market has witnessed nearly 20% annual growth for the year ending November 2014 in the segment.Biologics are drugs whose active ingredients are sourced from living organisms so these products are based on proteins, genes, etc, unlike normal small-molecule drugs where the active ingredient is a chemical.Due to this complex base, biologics are not as easily copied as other drugs and companies that are leading such research in India are the top pharmaceutical firms such as Biocon, Dr Reddy’s,  Lupin and Cadila Healthcare.A recent HSBC report says that biosimilar sales grew 20% annually to Rs 2,000 crore or approximately 2.5% of overall market sales at the end of November 2014. Sales margins on biosimilar drugs range from 20% to 80%, according to analysts. On the other hand, almost 90% to 95% of the innovator price of a drug is eroded when a generic version of a small-molecule drug is launched.With the US drug patent pipeline drying up, it is the high-margin biologics that will sustain sales for Indian companies,  analysts.On December 9, the BSE-listed Cadila announced the launch of a copycat version of AbbVie’s blockbuster biologic, Humira, which targets autoimmune disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis. The drug is touted as world’s top-selling drug with global sales exceeding Rs 1,000 crore in CY13, according to the HSBC report. The biosimilar, named Exemptia, will be marketed as a 40 mg injection administered once every alternate week and launched at one-fifth of Humira’s price of approximately $1,000 per injection.Similarly, in April 2013, Cipla started selling a biosimilar of the rheumatoid arthritis drug Enbrel with a launch price of $100. The price of the drug from the innovator, Amgen, was $133.Biocon’s CANMab, a breast cancer therapy that is a generic of Roche’s Herceptin, was launched in February 2014 with a 25% discount to the innovator price.“While we are excited with novel launches even in emerging markets given better pricing, we believe a significant contribution is far away as the market is still at nascent stage in accepting newer better forms of treatments coming at higher costs,” HSBC analysts wrote.Dr Reddy’s, especially, has the most exposure to biosimilars with approximately 7% or Rs 110 crore of its FY14 India sales originating from biosimilars compared with 3.7% for Cadila and less than 1% for Lupin and Cipla, according to HSBC analysts. “Dr Reddy’s is upping the ante on investing in complex generics as well as more risky areas involving biosimilars and proprietary products,” IDFC analysts wrote in a note dated October 29. “While limited visibility on value unlocking from the aggressive R&D investments in these spaces is a challenge, we see significant value creation possibilities given Dr Reddy’s proven capabilities in these high potential areas.”The European Medicines Agency has approved seven types of biosimilars from 2009 till date, according to data available on its website. None of the companies listed are Indian. In 2014, it approved the a single biosimilar: Sanofi’s insulin glargine therapy for diabetics named Lantus. The US Food and Drug Administration is yet to approve any biosimilar. “Material entry in regulated markets (US, EU) is still 4-5 years away as per our understanding,” HSBC analysts wrote.http://www.financialexpress.com/article/economy/biosimilars-are-the-next-big-thing-for-indian-pharma/23516/

TOP PICS FOR FUTURE GROWTH....!!!

A WELL DIVERSIFIED, STUDIED, CONSISTENT GROWTH BASED STOCKS FOR FUTURE GROWTH FOR HNI INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO....

CLOSING PRICES AS ON 24-12-2014

1) EICHER MOTORS---- ------------------Rs -14830/-
2) IPCA LABS-------------------------------Rs -717/-
3) SHASHUN PHARMA------------------Rs -274/-
4) OFSS---------------------------------------Rs -3318/-
5) LT------------------------------------------Rs -1477/-
6) TCS----------------------------------------Rs -2485/-
7) INFY---------------------------------------Rs -1932/-
8) HCL TECH-------------------------------Rs -1542/-
9) TECH MAHINDRA--------------------Rs -2523/-
10) HDFC BANK---------------------------Rs -946/-
11) WIPRO-----------------------------------Rs -544/-
12) AXIS BANK-----------------------------Rs -496/-
13) ITC----------------------------------------Rs -370/-
14) ADANI ENTERPRISES---------------Rs -442/-
15) SUN PHARMA--------------------------Rs -806/-
16) YES BANK------------------------------Rs -745/-
17) LUPIN------------------------------------Rs -1409/-
18) DABUR----------------------------------Rs -228/-
19) BRITANNIA----------------------------Rs -1751/-
20) INDIA BULLS HOUSING-----------Rs -445/-
21) BAJAJ AUTO---------------------------Rs -2483/-
22) BAJAJ FINSERV----------------------Rs -1312/-
23) TATA ELEXI---------------------------Rs -588/-
------------------------
TO ADD MORE

THE PSU BANKS 

1) CANARA BANK==============Rs -441/-
2) BANK OF INDIA==============Rs -291/-
3) SKS MICRO==================Rs -403/-
4) PFC========================Rs -293/-
5) REC LTD====================Rs -325/-
--------------------
SMALL & MID CAP BUT MAY PERFORM WELL

1) SHIPPING CORPORATION..............Rs -60/-
2) JINDAL SAW......................................Rs -93/-
3) NATIONAL ALUMINIUM------------Rs -53/-
4) NEYVELI LIGNITE...........................Rs -80/-
5) SRF......................................................Rs -853/-

Wealth list..!!, ADANI, RELIANCE, TATA...

Wealth list: The leaders and laggards of 2014Mumbai | December 25, 2014 8:01 am

The Narendra Modi wave that drove up India’s markets to new highs in 2014 may be ebbing somewhat as the year comes to a close, but the Gujarat-based Adani Group remains the highest wealth creator, report Yoosef KP and Devangi Gandhi in Mumbai. Despite being weighed down by debt, the Adani Group continued to pursue acquisitions, picking up a power plant from the Lanco Group. The market value of three of the group’s listed entities soared 66% to Rs 1.2 lakh crore. Adani Ports accounted for more than half of this addition of Rs 48,343 crore.

The Tata Group, India’s biggest conglomerate, which now boasts a total market value of more than Rs 8 lakh crore, also fared well. Shareholders of companies like Indian Hotels, Tata Chemicals, Voltas and Titan made good money. Other corporate groups that made shareholders wealthier were the business houses of the Munjals and Mahindras, with both posting more than a 30% increase in the market value of their listed ventures.

The increase in wealth of the Bajaj Group was predominantly led by its financial services arms, Bajaj Finserv and Bajaj Finance, which together added more than Rs 18,000 crore to the total market value of the group.

Thanks to regulatory uncertainty, Reliance Industries (RIL) under-performed the benchmark indices for another year — the stock has lost about 1% compared to a 29% gain in the Sensex. The muted gains of stocks of their IT businesses resulted in a moderation in the wealth creation by groups like the Shiv Nadar Group.

In a year that saw hundreds of stocks soar to new highs, the Anil Ambani-led ADAG stood out as a prominent wealth destroyer — the group’s power and communication businesses lost more than Rs 11,000 crore of market cap, more than offsetting the performance of the infra and financial services businesses. The OP Jindal and Jaypee groups also reported a more than 30% decline in their market wealth for a second consecutive year, due to the dismal performance of their flagship companies, Jindal Steel & Power and Jaiprakash Associates, respectively.

http://www.financialexpress.com/article/markets/indian-markets/wealth-list-the-leaders-and-laggards/22937/#

MERRY CHRISTMAS....THERMAX STORY

MIND BOGGLING YET…

I WAS AMAZED TO SEE THE PRICE ROCKETED TO CREATE ENOUGH TURBULENCE IN ME.

I BOUGHT 1000 SHARES OF THERMAX FOR Rs 38.65, 15 YEARS BACK,

TODAY, THE PRICE OF THERMAX IS Rs 1050/- OF Rs 2/- FACE VALUE (EQUAL TO Rs 5150/-). IN OTHER WORDS, ONE LAKH INVESTED HAS BECOME MORE THAN 66 LAKHS.

EVEN RECENTLY, 2-3 YEARS BACK, I FOUND MARKSAN AT Rs 2.30 NOW IT IS QUOTING Rs 64/-.

ALSO, FOUND MORARJEE TEXTILES AT Rs 7.0 NOW TOUCHED A HIGH OF Rs 61, INDOCOUNT INDUSTRIES AT Rs 7.0 NOW TOUCHED A HIGH OF Rs 390/-.

BUT THE ABOVE THREE WERE JUST MEMORIES BUT NO PARTICIPATION……

===============================================

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU & ALL INVESTORS & TRADERS…

UNLEASH VALUE ..STATE BANK OF INDIA -!!!

Value unlocking another trigger for SBI

The move will augment the bank's capital base and aid further growth

Sheetal Agarwal  |  Mumbai  

December 23, 2014 Last Updated at 18:30 IST

State Bank of India (SBI) management is looking to unlock value by listing one or more of its non-banking financial services companies (NBFC) such as insurance, cards, mutual funds and investment banking arms. The move will augment the bank's capital base and aid further growth for the bank. Given that most of these subsidiaries have joint venture partners, the decision to list has to be mutual and hence will take some time to implement.

SBI owns 74% stake each in its life insurance and general insurance subsidiaries, 60% in the cards and payments subsidiary, 63% in its asset management company and 100% in SBI Capital which also does investment banking. Analysts believe life insurance business has the highest value in SBI's NBFC companies and peg the same at about Rs 20,000 crore on an average. This is followed by the AMC business which is valued at about Rs 7,000 crore. The NBFC businesses together form about 12-15% of SBI's consolidated sum-of-the-parts value. Analysts believe listing will bring multiple benefits to the bank as well as its subsidiaries.

Jignesh Shial of IDBI Capital says that the listing of SBI's NBFC subsidiaries will improve their overall efficiency and enable SBI to exploit cross-selling opportunities aggressively and boost its fee income. The life insurance business, according to him is the first one to list given that it's the largest contributor to SBI's NBFC business and is doing reasonably well on the profitability front.

As of September 2014, SBI's tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 9.6% and is better than most peers in the PSU segment. Analysts believe SBI is well funded for the next one-one and a half years and should not have any troubles in growing in this period.

Operationally as well, SBI is better placed than its PSU peers on the CASA franchise and distribution network fronts. The bank's asset quality has been under pressure in recent times and while analysts expect incremental stress addition to be lower from here on, meaningful improvement in the same is likely only in the second half of FY16. SBI's loan growth is pegged at 12% in FY15 and is likely to inch up to 14-16% levels over the next two years. Its net interest margins are expected to be stable at around 3.2-3.3% levels. In this light, most analysts remain positive on SBI.

"SBI stock currently trades at 1.7 times FY16 estimated adjusted book value, closer to its mean valuation on one-year forward numbers. We have cut our loan slippage estimate by 20 basis points to 1.8% and credit cost estimate by 10 basis points to 0.7% for FY17. We feel SBI is a pure proxy play on economic revival," says Hatim Broachwala of Nirmal Bang Securities.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/value-unlocking-another-trigger-for-sbi-114122300777_1.html

RELIANCE- SHALE GAS=FUTURE..!!

New York fracking ban is bad news for RIL, shale gas producersAnalysts say RIL's venture with Chevron will be impactedDev Chatterjee  |  Mumbai  December 20, 2014 Last Updated at 22:49 ISTA ban on fracking by the New York state is a small setback for India’s largest private firm, Reliance Industries, which has invested $7 billion in US shale gas.  
On Thursday, the New York state banned fracking for health reasons. It said fracking, with horizontal drilling and chemical-laced water, could increase the risk of cancer, skin rashes, and upper respiratory tract problems. If the rest of the states in the US follow, it could put billions of dollars of investment at risk.
Analysts say the falling crude oil price is making shale gasunviable. Oil from shale gas assets costs between $50 and $100 a barrel as compared with $10 to 25 a barrel produced by West Asia from conventional methods of exploration.

EMERGING UNSCATHED

On Thursday, the New York state banned fracking for health reasons. It said fracking, with horizontal drilling and chemical-laced water, could increase the risk of cancer, skin rashes, and upper respiratory tract problems Analysts say Reliance Industries will be affected through its 40 per cent venture in Chevron’s Marcellus shale area that runs through parts of the state. Its other shale assets are in Texas and Pennsylvania

Analysts say Reliance Industries will be affected through its 40 per cent venture in Chevron’s Marcellus shale acreage that runs through parts of the state. Its other shale assets are in Texas and Pennsylvania.
“It will have marginal impact at best as Reliance Industries is yet to roll out its proposed $2-billion capital expenditure in the Marcellus region along with Chevron. Moreover, a moratorium since 2008 in the New York state would have meant that the capital expenditure committed so far would also have been done outside the state. The other two ventures with Pioneer and Carrizo are profitable and face no uncertainty,” says P Phani Sekhar, fund manager with Angel Broking.
Reliance Industries has already put its 45 per cent stake in its joint venture at Eagle Ford with Pioneer Natural Resources on the block at a valuation of $4.5 billion. The sale is targeted for conclusion early next year.
When contacted, a Reliance Industries spokesperson said: "The New York fracking ban (now formalised by the governor) was already in place for the last five years. This has no impact on Reliance Industries' activities. It should be seen in the same context as California and several east coast states having banned drilling for decades but it does not affect the rest of the industry. New York has the luxury of not needing shale gas drilling as nearby states such as Pennsylvania and West Virginia produce large excess volumes of gas."
Another worry for analysts is that the returns on capital employed by Reliance Industries’ shale gas investments were three-four per cent in 2013-14. This is estimated to hit double digits by 2021, but falling crude oil prices may change Reliance Industries’ calculations.  
On Friday, the Reliance Industries’ stock was up 2.7 per cent to Rs 900 a share.
Reliance Industries’ earnings per share from US shale gas assets were Rs 0.7 in 2013-14 and were expected to go up to Rs 11.2 by 2021, according to global bank Barclays.
“Earning from US shale, where Reliance has spent $7.4 billion so far, may rise as output increases, but with the steady returns on capital employed at 11-12 per cent, it may not be a key value driver,” Barclays said in a report dated October 8.  
For the first quarter of 2014-15, Reliance Industries’ revenue and Ebitda from the shale gas business were $270 million and $201 million, respectively. But revenue and Ebitda grew slower than volumes on a sequential basis owing to a weakness in gas prices. Analysts have also lowered production estimates based on the Marcellus project though estimates for Pioneer are higher.
Reliance Industries' total investment in the US till July 2014 has been $7.36 billion. The company invested $2.04 billion in buying stakes in three companies and gaining access to 12 trillion cubic feet of reserves.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/new-york-fracking-ban-is-bad-news-for-ril-shale-gas-producers-114122000112_1.html

STOCK-MARKETS HIGHs to ROUGH WEEK..!!

Market enters a turbulent patch

LOKESHWARRI SKIndices have recovered but there are some hurdles in the near termThe four-day week ahead could see further volatility as the December derivative contract expires this Wednesday. Investors will keep an eye on the unfolding events in Russia and elsewhere as they juggle with their investment strategy.There was heightened drama in all financial markets last week. Indian equity investors who were thus far rejoicing at the positive impact of sliding crude prices on companies’ input costs and the country’s import bills, began worrying about the negative impact on our exports and foreign portfolio and direct investment flows.The currency market was also in an upheaval with the Russian rouble facing a speculative onslaught and the Russian central bank hiking the interest rate in the country by 6.5 percentage points. The rupee added its bit to the ongoing pandemonium, moving close to the 64 mark against the dollar.But peace returned in the latter part of the week, thanks to the Federal Reserve saying it intends to be patient in hiking interest rates in the US, and that policy rates could remain at the current level for a ‘considerable time’.Higher volumes in the cash segment on the days when the market declined signal that retail investors are willing to buy in declines. Derivative volumes on the NSE too hit record levels in the early part of the week, signalling higher trading interest. Foreign portfolio investors stayed net sellers till Thursday, according to SEBI.The fate of equity markets now hinges on crude price movement. As explained earlier, the level between $60 and $65 was the critical support for the commodity. Crude fell to $53.6, representing a 74 per cent retracement of the previous up-move. This is also permissible as a retracement when selling pressure is intense. It needs to be seen if crude holds above the $50 mark in the coming weeks. If it does, some stability can return to financial markets. Else a slide to $38 will be on.Momentum in the daily chart deteriorated with the daily oscillators moving deeper into the negative zone. But there was a slight recovery towards the weekend. The short-term trend, however, continues to be down.Oscillators in the weekly chart are giving a sell signal but they continue to be in the positive zone, implying that the medium-term view stays positive.Sensex (27,371.8)The Sensex reversed upward from the low of 26,469 mid-week and gained 823 points from there.The week ahead: But the negative bias in the short term has not yet reduced. The Sensex has immediate resistances at 27,407 and then 28,000. We need a strong close above 28,000 for the near term trend to turn positive. But failure to move above 27,400 early next week will be taken as a negative signal. It will mean that the index can move lower to 26,042 or 25,144 in the days ahead.Since the 50-DMA is also positioned at 27,500, a close above this level will be construed a short-term victory for the bulls.Medium-term trend: As explained earlier, we are expecting the completion of a medium-term move at the November peak at 28,822. The extent of the pull-back next week will determine if we are in a medium-term correction or if the correction over the last three weeks was just a short-term pull-back.If the Sensex moves above 28,000, it will mean that the up-trend has resumed and we will be hitting new highs soon. On the other hand, inability to move above that level will mean that the move down from the 28,822-peak will have legs that can pull it lower towards the 24,500 level indicated earlier. The 200-DMA at 25,200 will also be an important support if there is a sharp medium-term correction.Nifty (8,225.2)The Nifty reversed from the low of 7,961 to end the week on a flat note.The week ahead: The index faces short-term resistance at 8,231 and then at 8,372. That the index is halting at the first hurdle implies that traders need to be a little watchful in the early part of the week. Presence of the 50-DMA at this level adds to its significance. Reversal in the early part of the week can pull the index lower to 7,961. A move below this level can take the index to 7,854 and then 7,601.Medium-term trend: The medium-term view is under threat as the index moved below 8,000 last week. But a strong close below this level is needed to signal that further deterioration is possible.Inability to move beyond 8,372 in the next couple of weeks will strengthen the possibility of a drift lower towards 7,724 or 7,600 over the coming weeks. But if this level is surpassed, the index will be on course to record a new high soon.Global cuesMost global benchmarks recovered in the second part of the week to erase some losses. The CBOE volatility index too declined sharply from the intra-week high of 25.2 to close the week at 16.5, as investor trepidation abated.The recovery has been spectacular in Dow, with a strong piercing white candle in the weekly chart that has gone past more than three-fourth of the white candle formed in the previous week. That the index retraced only 38.2 per cent of its previous up-move implies that it can move higher to 18,400 or 19,200 soon.(This article was published on December 20, 2014)

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/features/investment-world/market-watch/market-enters-a-turbulent-patch/article6711305.ece?homepage=true