The tussle is tough????

The rate cut to US securities is really as big jolt to the bulls across the globe as their indices growth is in tandem irrespective of the local issues. The Nifty could hold above the 200 day DMA and the bottom building will happen once it trades above 5830 level for next big leap. The crucial juncture is at 5778-85 level Bulls have to acquire and bears has to protect.

The big news is RIL will use 4G for its BWA, telecom fore ray into telecom with 25000 cr investment in next 5 years. The appointment of Mr. Vivek Lal former Head of Boeing Indian operations confirms its interests to focus on Disaster Management with safety and security. The set back to Reliance at this juncture is their Hydrocarbon business plans. The DGH rejects its 2 well discoveries and asked to resubmit their budgets.

The results declared BHEL, HDFC Bank, IDBI bank, Indus are showing decent growth in their profits and the NPA are not alarming. The retail banking operations of these banks are also providing good margin to their bottom line. BHEL lead consortium won 1600 cr nuclear power project along with Alstom.

The metrological department expects a normal monsoon for this year, but it is too early to confirm the progress

The burgeoning power crisis in India has given opportunity for many players to participate in the UMPP, now the power companies are facing in the fuel supply, especially coal shortage. Thanks to the environmental concerns for new coal blocks to be opened in the dense forests. The floods in Australia gave a boost to price hike but the scarcity is continuing for this commodity of black gold, globally.

The leadership change at Infosys be it Mr.Narayana Murty who reties by August, Kris will fill the gap but the current jolt from Mohan das Pai and Dinesh is a big challenge to Mr.Sibulal, the last leader of the founders to chair the top slot. The biggest challenge now for Infosys for next decade or so is lack of charismatic face to lead the 1.3 lakh human resources across the globe and build confidence not only on the capabilities to deliver but on the transparency and client confidentiality. The transition may bring down the stock to its yearly lows and may underperform than the indices. The stock fails to trade above 3030 immediately and float above 2930 for next couple of months may bring this giant to its size by cutting the extra premium, may trade at 15-18 times of PE, can place it close to 1800-2000 the first stop will be at 2580-40 range. The ability to win big contacts may stop the fall immediately with some good announcements otherwise the result is sour to taste and written clearly on the wall.

The strength of emerging markets like India are independently dependent not the bourses but on the capital flows and the M&As. The human capital and untapped natural resources are our strength but need some policy decision to unleash the potential. The Govt. has committed in its statements but a back seat due to the corruption charges. The Nifty is likely to consolidate in the broad range of around these 4500-6500 range for a longer period than anticipated due to the other headwinds like inflation, corruption, global slow recovery and the next big threat is the “value of Dollar” and the acceptance by BRICS any longer

THE RIFT- A CHALLENGE????

There is no dissent between SD Shibulal & me: TV Mohandas Pai

Devina Sengupta, ET Bureau, Apr 16, 2011, 03.29am IST

Mostly seen in shirts with Infosys monogrammed on them, TV Mohandas Pai , one of the faces of the IT bellwether, cannot wear his company's name on his sleeves after June 12 anymore. Yesterday, after the announcement that he would be leaving the company he has spent 17 years in, Pai wondered aloud what he would do with all those shirts.

It's said you have a rivalry with Shibulal...

I do not know where this speculation started from. There is absolutely no dissent between Shibu and me. I have never hankered for the post of either the CEO or the COO, and therefore there has been no discord on this matter. I had been toying with the idea (of leaving) for some time. Since last year, I have tried to persuade (NR Narayana) Murthy quite a few times to let me go. After 17 years, no one wants to do the same thing. Therefore, the time was right for me to move on.

Didn't Murthy's persuasion make you rethink?

Yes, Murthy did not want to let go of me, and asked me if I wanted the posts (CEO/COO). He wanted me to follow the usual track of working with the company till I was 60. I refused. Although it is not easy to persuade Murthy, the winning argument was that "it's time to let me step down so that those younger can also have their time under the sun". And with Raghavendra K (now in Infosys BPO) and Nandan (Nilekani) moving, he is more prepared now, though the blow was not softer.

What about those who are at the helm and will likely be there till they are 60? How did they react to your reasoning?

I cannot take a decision for others, but it is my opinion that others should be allowed their time as well. If we remain, then we are always there to be consulted; decisions will not be taken independently. But I am not the example for others.

The younger lot at Infosys has not always agreed with the way the old guard worked. Is now, then, the time for change in the company?

Infosys has always allowed discussion and debate, where everyone can express without fear but without being disrespectful. They are allowed to make changes as long as it does not interfere with the company's value system.

The Economic Times coverage uncovers........thanks to ET-team

The CROSS roads to many????

The Bulls diehard effort to keep the indices in positive territory was spoiled by the IT bellwether weak results and the top brass churning. The numbers are weak but excusable in any give other scenario than this time, cost an wealth erosion of close to 10% in a single session. The rupee strengthen in the lat quarter added fuel to fire for this disappointment for other mid-cap IT’s.

Mr. MohanDas Pai, the missed stalwart of Infosys, jolted the company and the news maker at many a time, confronted for top slot but now decided to pursue his dream passion after the long drawn aspire to be a CEO ended. The diminishing light of hope on a D-day triggered for new avenues in the emerging country like India to one’s worth.

As far as numbers language is concerned, Nifty is good for Bulls when it trades above or in the range of 5820-75 with an upward bias. The Nifty is being guided in a band of 5440-6030 for at least the elections results and the popular mandate is tested. There is no doubt that the ruling Govt. There is a tight band move of 5300-5775 range for above close to 45 days is now the biggest challenge for the bears to crack the fort. The recent developments in the Europe and the rising inflation in India are headwinds for the rise. The Infosys spooked the hopes of the Bulls though the Global IT scenario looks bright.

The BRICS meeting and there on the Nuclear deals with Kazakhstan shall bring some hope to energy sector. The trade relations among the BRICS and the local currency transactions shall weaken the dollar further may offer more trouble to US dominance.

The Reliance is now in a very narrow band of 1210 to 980 range for quite long time may spur a war between the Bulls and Bears as the weightage in Nifty is an advantage to Bears, may bring this to 875-860 level that may pull the Nifty to lower levels.