The real test for Bulls and the in built long run of Bullishness in the Indian markets will see the new opening tomorrow. In case the Indian markets are in bull grip, then the markets will open above 5226 and will close above 5280 at Nifty.
The bears took lot of advantage due to US financial crisis and global troubles. The situation at the home is very positive. (I failed to publish- It has little importance but can be used as a record.)
Saturday, February 02, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
The game of averages …
The operators take large amount of “Risk” and so is the “Return”. The retail investor always at the fag end to receive the vital information and fail to do necessary home that can give good returns/protect him from the pit falls. I try to once again make the readers about the warning made when the Mid and Small cap run up started …… titled as Distribute and eliminate…………..dt.21-11-07…
Who will buy at higher levels is all ways the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used and shout… buy buy buying—happening every where……create a confusion in the minds of investors and make them to believe every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.
In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses. The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.
“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………
The experts are clear about the Bull market but are not advising the investors to buy at the rock bottom prices and asking to wait till they average.
The Indian growth story is selling at dirt cheap at the bourses. The inherent strengths are unexplored and more good days to come. Let some body suffer at some place be sympathetic but all thing hungama is just because to give respect. But after a few days of turmoil, the nations will go back to work. Because US is going for elections like us they are also compelling the Govt. to go for some incentives to industry and to the public. The US is no exception than any other nation when it comes to elections. So there is nothing to worry about our GDP growth or about our markets. The good companies will flourish early than the laggards any way lose their steam.
Who will buy at higher levels is all ways the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used and shout… buy buy buying—happening every where……create a confusion in the minds of investors and make them to believe every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.
In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses. The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.
“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………
The experts are clear about the Bull market but are not advising the investors to buy at the rock bottom prices and asking to wait till they average.
The Indian growth story is selling at dirt cheap at the bourses. The inherent strengths are unexplored and more good days to come. Let some body suffer at some place be sympathetic but all thing hungama is just because to give respect. But after a few days of turmoil, the nations will go back to work. Because US is going for elections like us they are also compelling the Govt. to go for some incentives to industry and to the public. The US is no exception than any other nation when it comes to elections. So there is nothing to worry about our GDP growth or about our markets. The good companies will flourish early than the laggards any way lose their steam.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Never sell the Enterprise…
The markets are facing rough time but the ray of hope lies in the growth story. The markets are likely to bounce back to new levels and even cross the High in the months to come as the dust will settle after two quarters. The India’s economy growth is intact and the corporate performance will improve in future. The internal consumption is huge and the breadth is increasing by strength.
The Nifty is strong at 4500-4600 levels. The range suggested earlier (5200 to 6300) is still a valid range as the FII’s have heavily from 19th Sep-07 to 16th Oct-07, invested at the 4500-5700 Nifty levels. The FII out flow is a cause of concern at this point in time but not at all a worry some event.
So long Reliance stays above 2430-50 level, ICICI stays above 1035-29 level and the ONGC stays above 1000-990, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. Small aberrations through opportunity to buy but not to sell.The HDFC, HDFC bank, RCOM, REL, NTPC, SAIL, Tata Steel are going to catch up in future. The Techs are bottomed out and they have limited space left to correct. The correction could not change the bottom supports of ITC and HUL. The rest any way change their weight age time and again as they could through no material impact on the Nifty levels.
The immediate support levels for Nifty are at 5080 and can easily touch 5680 with or with out global cues that can favour our markets. The US recession will become a boon to us as they out- source services to products. The Auto and auto components business will benefit in future will get favourable news from June-08. The bad period may last for 6-9 months; consider this as an opportunity for a fine consolidation period and an excellent base for the next boom. The market participants know that markets observe periods of consolidation and a vertical rise cannot last longer.
So Never sell the growth story of the enterprise but sell the stock at higher levels and re-enter at the lower levels. The investment at higher levels is a valid proposition for the operator as it could through some opportunity to offload large chunk of holding but not for the small/retail investor. “Never chase stocks - Never miss a Growth Stock”.
The Nifty is strong at 4500-4600 levels. The range suggested earlier (5200 to 6300) is still a valid range as the FII’s have heavily from 19th Sep-07 to 16th Oct-07, invested at the 4500-5700 Nifty levels. The FII out flow is a cause of concern at this point in time but not at all a worry some event.
So long Reliance stays above 2430-50 level, ICICI stays above 1035-29 level and the ONGC stays above 1000-990, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. Small aberrations through opportunity to buy but not to sell.The HDFC, HDFC bank, RCOM, REL, NTPC, SAIL, Tata Steel are going to catch up in future. The Techs are bottomed out and they have limited space left to correct. The correction could not change the bottom supports of ITC and HUL. The rest any way change their weight age time and again as they could through no material impact on the Nifty levels.
The immediate support levels for Nifty are at 5080 and can easily touch 5680 with or with out global cues that can favour our markets. The US recession will become a boon to us as they out- source services to products. The Auto and auto components business will benefit in future will get favourable news from June-08. The bad period may last for 6-9 months; consider this as an opportunity for a fine consolidation period and an excellent base for the next boom. The market participants know that markets observe periods of consolidation and a vertical rise cannot last longer.
So Never sell the growth story of the enterprise but sell the stock at higher levels and re-enter at the lower levels. The investment at higher levels is a valid proposition for the operator as it could through some opportunity to offload large chunk of holding but not for the small/retail investor. “Never chase stocks - Never miss a Growth Stock”.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
The Fittest will….
The trouble was there in the market when the markets crossed 6300 at Nifty level and the supports became weak but it survived on the euphoria of Mid and small cap run-up. I personally warned in my write up titled..(Y can’t it be…………….Dt.18-11-2007……. I personally feel that the prices are sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………).
The situation could not have this much worse but the deep write down mess in the US financial sector gave an opportunity to correct the steep valuations at the home. So the conclusion is as simple as that “Never buy beyond a point… the point can be identified by the age old, ever green safe investment method—P/E ratio”.
So never blame the market or the seller who made you to buy. It is a simple marketing strategy. While some one out for shopping shall understand his/her home needs rather than blaming marketing people. The emotions at stock market will drain the purse and fill the heart with pain.
The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………).
The situation could not have this much worse but the deep write down mess in the US financial sector gave an opportunity to correct the steep valuations at the home. So the conclusion is as simple as that “Never buy beyond a point… the point can be identified by the age old, ever green safe investment method—P/E ratio”.
So never blame the market or the seller who made you to buy. It is a simple marketing strategy. While some one out for shopping shall understand his/her home needs rather than blaming marketing people. The emotions at stock market will drain the purse and fill the heart with pain.
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