Friday, April 30, 2010

Heat & Mansoon series begins

The Nifty could close APRIL SERIES at arround 5260 level, maintained no gain no loss on month on month basis. The PSU banks and other banks made their journey to North. The RIL has crossed the resistance at 1036-39 level and the Ster made a decent rally. The Tata Motors and SBI are in bull grip slong stays above 726 and 2250 level. The major looser are in IT- Mindtree and Educomp, the Ultratech cements.
The Nifty could gain strenth only when RIL and ONGC find some buyers at higher levels. The steep runup in the banking sector may look for some consolidation but the upper level are nearing top.The banking gaint SBI has good support and in full Bull grip above 2250-48 level and ICICI has to stay above 964-66 level to consider the banking stocks has further legs to go. The RIL has serious resistance at 1060 level, the ONGC find resistance at1069-72 level.
The good news for reality sector is the concessions offered by reducing the tax and the urban poor get tax exemptions is a boost to the slum developers and specially to Mumbai and Delhi based reality sector copanies. Earlier it was the mall construction but now it will be slum constuction cats and dogs billionaires. The new mantra will hold for next two to three years.
The Nifty is facing resistance at 5273 level and again at 5293 level. Incase the Nifty stays above the second resistance level the bears needs to take a close look at the positions taken in anticipation of fall. The Bulls are enjoying the good results of corporate India be it tech, banks or oil and gas.
The Pharma sector dependant on foreign pastures, likely to see some pressure in future as the rupee is strenthening and likely to continue the trend for next 6-12 monthe down the line. The reality and infra/construction majors yet to come out with numbers. The good mansoon can trigger further rally otherwise the bulls look for the life saviour news.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

F&O squareoff…

There huge retail positions built over the last onemonth once the Nifty has crossed the resistance level at 5280 level. Now it is the same built up now placing weight at the d-day-closing ,Thursday.


The Nifty has gone no where as the last month closure was at 5260 level and now it is close to it. As a matter of fact most beaten down sector of this month baring the Infosys, tech gaints and RIL. The DLF is well above last month close. The Tata Motors as of now is the best gainer over Rs 100 to todays close. The Reliance is the worst effected by 70 rupees due to the forthcoming Judgement, as the tussle with brother costed, speculators betting on Anil.
The ster results and Bonus with spit may hold the price above 800 level but Tata steel and Sail got affected by bea hammering. Now it was the Reliance gas finding news that needs to keep the stock above 1031-36 level, as this guides Nifty, consists more weightage and by sentiment also.
The Bharti results are not bad due to fierece competition existing with the new entrants. The stock likely to close above 303 level as the 3G is to be closed. The tech majors may get some shortcovering support and RIL support may prop up the Nifty to float at 5200 level.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Waning strengh ….

The Nifty is good above 5265 but facing serious resistance at 5370-65 level, despite of repeated attempts by the Bulls to gain strength but became futile efforts. The positive side of the market is that the bull are in controle of the situation but waning as days pass by. The market is revolving arround the 5260-65 level for the last 25 trading sessions with arange of 5160-5360 but the trading volumes increased considerbly is a caution.
The earlier suggested levels are met and now the retacing is happening be it DLF, Bharti, Ster, Tata steel, Reliance and ICICI. The upward movement is still exists in Tata motors, Axis Bank, SBI, Bank of Baroda, Bank India and other PSU banks. The state owned ONGC is now calling for major policy decisions that can trigger a rally above 1071-75 level, possible likely when the next spel of upward journey of Nifty begins. The bears took decent controle over the cement major ACC and Indiacements.
Relcap is creating a bottom support at 730 level but the high capped at 748, aither a break out can offer decent profits. Infosys high resistance is at 2751-55 level and lower support pegged at 2715 level but the buying oportunity is emerging at 2658-65 level for this month F&O. The Reliance is having support at 1050 is likely to be challenged but the immediate support is at 1021-24 level for decent gains. The inflation rate hike dilemma is hurting DLF and HDIL to paricipate in the rise where as the Bharti is down on expectation of poor numbers. The IT majors like TCS and Wipro lkely to get support below 2-3%of their recent lows. The M&M,Ster are classic examples of bounce back. The Sesa goa impact on bad news may get support at 410-415 range to get a bounce to touch 455-61 level.