Tuesday, February 07, 2012


China growth could halve if Europe crisis worsens - IMF

 (Reuters) - China's annual economic growth could be cut nearly in half this year if Europe's debt crisis tips the world economy into a recession, putting pressure on Beijing to unveil "significant" fiscal stimulus, the International Monetary Fund said.

The Fund outlined its central scenario for China's 2012 growth outlook in its global outlook in January, cutting its forecast for 2012 growth from 9 percent to 8.2 percent.
The China Economic Outlook published on Monday showed that under the IMF's "downside" forecast for the global economy, China's growth rate may be cut by around 4 percentage points from the fund's current forecast of 8.2 percent in 2012.
"In the unfortunate event such a downside scenario becomes reality, China should respond with a significant fiscal package, executed through central and local government budgets," it said.
Stimulative measures could include cuts in consumption taxes, subsidies for consumers, corporate incentives to expand investment, fiscal support for smaller firms and more spending on low-cost housing social safety nets, the fund said.
Such fiscal stimulus, adding up to 3 percent of GDP, would help mitigate declines in economic output, it said.
A Reuters poll in January showed China's economic growth is likely to moderate to 8.4 percent from 2011's 9.2 percent as demand at home and abroad slackens.
Falling inflation will enable the People's Bank of China to fine-tune policy to support growth through its open market operations in the coming weeks, the IMF said. It said the central bank could opt to cut banks' reserve requirement ratio again if capital inflows remain subdued.
The central bank announced a cut in the amount of cash that banks have to hold as reserves -- the first such cut in three years -- at the end of November. More reserve ratio cuts are expected in coming months.
(Reporting by Kevin Yao; editing by Patrick Graham)

Monday, February 06, 2012

CORNER STONE OF VEDANTA GROUP......

6 Feb, 2012, 11.05AM IST,
Tarun Jain: The man who has been stoking Anil Agarwal's growth engine since 25 years
MUMBAI: In April 2007, Anil Agarwal, chairman of the London-listed Vedanta Resources, threw a private party in a south Mumbai hotel to celebrate the acquisition of Sesa Goa from Mitsui of Japan. Amidst a swarm of 200-odd people, a gentleman of middle age and medium height was seen taking Agarwal around and introducing him to guests, mostly pin-striped bankers. When not in Agarwal's company, the man would retreat to a corner, with a lime juice for company.
The bloke in the corner is at Agarwal's side not just at such glitzy shindigs but at virtually every step of Vedanta's growth path. That's Tarun Jain, 51, who is never in the spotlight but almost always the reason for it. Jain hates crowds and speaks very little, but don't let that fool you. He's the finance whiz who has implemented Agarwal's growth ambitions for the past 25 years. He's the bean counter-turned-game changer who has been at the forefront of executing Agarwal's vision of transforming a small cable company into a global conglomerate worth $11 billion with interests in mining, metals and energy.
Ask Jain to list out his accomplishments and he's likely to dismiss it with a shrug. "Our chairman is a visionary. We are in charge of execution," is all that he would say when this writer met him with a request for an interview, which he turned down. Agarwal too did not participate in this story. Emails sent to his office and subsequent follow-ups failed to elicit a response. Indeed, both Agarwal and Jain are private people. Another similarity: they are humble yet aggressive. But that's where the likeness ends. If Agarwal sees the large canvas, Jain is the nuts and bolts man, fitting pieces big and small into the big picture - a perfect recipe for a high-octane growth formula.
"They complement each other," says a person who has worked closely with them for a few years at Sterlite Industries, Vedanta's flagship in India. "Jain's approach to work is commonsensical," says Vallabh Bhanshali, founder-chairman of Enam, a Mumbai-based financial services company. "He identifies himself with the cause of the organisation, uses his intelligence for the cause, and works for the company and its founder."
Jain's minimalist manners and garb - he's dressed in a regular full sleeves shirt on most days in office and puts on a jacket when he goes out for a meeting - are in stark contrast to his reservoir of experience. In nearly 30 years as a finance professional, he has risen from a company secretary and chief accountant to a finance director. Till March 31, 2011, he was director (finance) at Agarwal's Indian metals and mining flagship Sterlite Industries. He's now in the chairman's office in a more strategic role that goes beyond finance matters. But finance is the arena in which Jain has earned his biggest spurs over the past 25-odd years. He's helped raise money for new projects and to finance big-bang acquisitions inside and outside India with a slew of one-of-a-kind finance instruments.
These range from an initial share sale of Sterlite at a premium in 1988 to the listing of the company's shares on the New York Stock Exchange in 2007, to a $2-billion issue of American depository receipts in the same year. He was also at hand when Agarwal had to raise some $8 billion to finance the acquisitions of Sesa Goa and Cairn India. "His creativity does not allow him to accept anything only because it's popular or it's established," says Bhanshali about "kid brother" Jain, whom he knows since the latter's early days in Sterlite.
"Tarun may not have invented everything but he definitely has implemented everything in finance," adds the Enam chairman. Yet, at times, the group's financial ingenuity hasn't found all-round approval - not from small investors, for sure. In 2002, Sterlite earned the wrath of minority investors when it appeared to be forcing them to tender their shares by mailing cheques to them; the company had to withdraw the proposal because of the ensuing protests.
Six years later, investors were once again up in arms against Vedanta's proposal to restructure businesses of Sesa Goa, Sterlite and Madras Aluminium into three commodity-focused groups. Minority shareholders in Sterlite, in which Vedanta holds a little over 60%, felt they were being short-changed because the new structure would increase their exposure to seemingly riskier assets (such as mines in Zambia) and reduce their presence in the faster-growing domestic aluminium business. The company shelved the plan.
The flip side: Investors are richer for the efforts of the Agarwal-Jain duo. A 100 investment in Sterlite's initial offering in 1988 would have burgeoned to a little under 87,000 today. You could attribute some of Jain's acumen in creating wealth to his quest for academic excellence.
He regularly topped the class in school, was a gold medallist at the under-grad level and a ranker holder in the CA and CS programmes. The small-town boy from Rajasthan's Ajmer district moved to Mumbai along with three friends when he was a second-year student of BCom. From the refuge of hostels in the city, Jain would put 18 hours daily into his studies.
His first job was with Indian Rayon, a part of the Aditya Birla Group, as a management trainee. He lasted nine months there till he was asked to shift to an upcoming cement unit in Karnataka. He then moved to real estate firm Kalpataru; and then to Sterlite in 1984 when Anil Agarwal and his brother Navin were running their cable firm out of a 2,500 sq feet office in Mumbai's commercial district of Nariman Point.
Anand Rathi, founder-chairman of the eponymous financial services firm, was a president at the Birla company when Jain left. Rathi says he was impressed with Jain's decision to leave a big group. "It showed that he was focused on what he wanted to achieve," says Rathi, who remembers him as "a man of numbers, with an eye for detail and a quiet risk-taker".
Risk-taking is also a passion for Jain when he is outside the Vedanta universe. A person close to him says Jain is an active investor in equities. Bhanshali points out that Jain's market-related activities are aimed at giving back to the society. "He once took me to the Andheri hostel where he once stayed and told me he wants to do something for the students at the hostel," Bhanshali adds.
Clearly, Jain is one of the increasing breed of investors who believe that greed and giving are both good and are two sides of the same coin.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/corporate-trends/tarun-jain-the-man-who-has-been-stoking-anil-agarwals-growth-engine-since-25-years/articleshow/11771409.cms?curpg=1

BEARS PRESENCE ???????


The Nifty is well place above the 4850 technical support at the bottom and may test 5480-5440 at the top. There are some good news to be released like the STT reduction and GST. The results of HLL, SBI and auto majors may put pressure on the top but the continued positive outlook couple with RIL buy back plan may keep the Nifty float above 5080. The Nifty could bounce back to a level where it enjoyed 6 months ago. So it is very likely that the markets are not interested to become bearish for now. The Southward move that may become a correction in the rise but the sentiment is very positive. The stock specific moves will be common for next 2-3 weeks. The announced results from the big are satisfactory and midcaps earnings are good, market accepted in the current scenario.

The cool doubling of investment in Vodafone to 11.4% is apt and a wise decision from Piramals. The likely listing of Vodafone, the world’s number on in revenues, will get higher valuations in the current scenario. The markets are enjoying the FII inflow, especially to counties like India. The inflation threat is no longer an issue, the manufacturing sector needs investment support and growth has to be maintained.

The catastrophic blow to the telecos, especially to the foreign entrants may create some headache to the centre but can be dealt with the relief came from the then FM Chidambaram. The Cong. Has some brave face to accept the opposition challenge but the banks, especially the PSU may loose some money in the issue. The SBI is expressing 1100cr, PNB and BOB are in similar problems. The pain will be like, after operation patient will be calm for a while till the anesthesia is working. Once the reality come on to the senses, then the cry and jumpings take the centre stage despite the pain killers induced. This issue has may ripple affects on the markets. Every body is building their case, like the military preparation at Israeli.

The bad news is continued to be kept in shelf, will find its fissures to drop down. The markets in the world as a whole took a single direction on the North side now will find skewed moves focusing on their internal assignments. The political war fares around Iran, and the economic sanctions, oil import restrictions and payment issues. The Israeli aggression plans may give tension outputs across the globe.


Sunday, February 05, 2012

FII INVESTMENTS...INFLOW!!!!

THE FII- INFLOW... A WELCOME...A CONSOLIDATION.....


DATE
BUY
SELL
NET FII INVESTMENT
02-Feb-2012
5,124.80
2,989.90
2,134.90 
01-Feb-2012
5,227.20
3,134.50
2,092.70 
31-Jan-2012
3,459.70
2,814.60
645.10 
30-Jan-2012
2,577.60
2,657.20
-79.60 
27-Jan-2012
4,096.00
2,731.80
1,364.20 
25-Jan-2012
3,890.50
2,718.30
1,172.20 
24-Jan-2012
2,997.70
2,088.50
909.20 
23-Jan-2012
1,564.80
1,577.60
-12.80 
20-Jan-2012
3,547.00
2,549.80
997.20 
19-Jan-2012
2,822.60
2,125.00
697.60 
18-Jan-2012
3,002.40
2,041.10
961.30 
17-Jan-2012
2,975.90
1,911.40
1,064.50 
16-Jan-2012
1,990.50
1,543.20
447.30 
13-Jan-2012
2,526.30
2,161.70
364.60 
12-Jan-2012
2,526.80
2,001.30
525.50 
11-Jan-2012
2,629.60
2,132.10
497.50 
10-Jan-2012
2,783.10
2,378.00
405.10 
09-Jan-2012
1,789.10
1,776.70
12.40 
06-Jan-2012
1,851.00
1,825.90
25.10 
05-Jan-2012
2,248.40
1,699.20
549.20 
04-Jan-2012
1,840.30
1,583.10
257.20 
03-Jan-2012
1,356.50
1,030.90
325.60 
02-Jan-2012
472.30
511.40
-39.10 

Wkly Tech Analysis Nifty has broken past major hurdles
Rex Cano / Mumbai Feb 05, 2012, 00:14 IST

The markets continued to rally for yet another week, driven by liquidity. The Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) so far this year have pumped in over Rs 15,000 crore. The Sensex, which, witnessed some choppiness in the first half of the week, rallied firmly in the latter half as FIIs stepped up the buying.
The BSE benchmark index rallied to a high of 17,630, and finally settled with a gain of over two per cent at 17,605. In the process, the Sensex has around 13.5 per cent so far in this calendar year.
Among the Sensex stocks this week, DLF zoomed nearly 9 per cent to Rs 230. Tata Power, Hero MotoCorp, Hindalco, TCS, Sun Pharma, Jindal Steel, Gail India, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Auto were up 5-8 per cent each. On the other hand, Coal India, BHEL and Larsen & Toubro were the major losers.
Last week, the Sensex gave a positive breakout on the quarterly charts, and now has crossed its first major hurdle of 17,565 on the yearly charts. This indicates further bullishness for the markets. Now, the overall trend for the markets is likely to remain up as long as the Sensex trades above 16,500-16,600. The immediate support for the index would be around 17,170.
As per the monthly Fibonacci charts, the Sensex may now target 17,920 in the short-term, while face resistance around 18,150-18,370 on the upside. The NSE Nifty moved in a range of 258 points, the index from a low of 5,077 surged to a high of 5,335. The index ended with a gain of 2.3 per cent at 5,326.
The Nifty has now cleared two major hurdles in form of the 50-WMA and 200-DMA. The index has now settled above the 200-day DMA (Daily Moving Average) for three successive days, which now strengthens the up move. The index has also closed above the 50-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) - which is at 5,255. The 200-day DMA, at 5,190, and the 50-WMA will now act as an immediate support for the index.
The momentum oscillators continue to remain bullish on both the daily and the weekly charts. Hence, one should expect fresh buying on dips. The upside resistance for the Nifty could be around 5,370-5,400. Next week, the Nifty can rally to 5,425-5,485 on the upside, while may seek support around 5,225-5,165 on the lower side.

THANKS TO B S

GOOD OBSERVATION



----------------------------------PLEASE READ ONE OF THE GOOD OBSERVATION FROM MASTER.........

Here are my observations for your last post and the markets. Markets will go lower when everyone are least expecting it not when people were talking about 4200 and 3900 possibilities. Also Markets lead the data by 2 to 3 quarters in advance. That said 4530 in the last quarter of December was reflecting the earnings data of Q1/Q2 2012 results.

Amount of money being pumped by Obama's administration will keep the markets afloat as you rightly pointed out as 40 nations across the globe are going for polls this year.

2013 and 2014 years seems to be heading to rough patch and we will be seeing huge downfalls in the market in 2014 like what we had in 2008. Temporary fixes in the markets wont help like what all the central banks in the world did back in 2008 by pumping in more liquidity. It has to stop somewhere and looks like a reset to all the developed economies is bound to happen in next 2 to 3 years which would lead to the era of chinese,brazilian and indian economies dominating the 21st century bull run.

Please share your valuable thoughts. 

One simple word "Mass Psychology" is the tool all the smart investors across the globe have in their kitty. Fundamental and technical analysis are the tools they use to manipulate the markets in the direction they want.

RajeshMuppaneni

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Masterji,
 

Good post.
The approach is very good but economic indicators needs to be included

B.NageswaraRao