The Nifty could stay above 5085 level as expected to show the resilence to fall but the up move for future is not assured, so not so easy as it happed a week days before.
The RIL good above 1029 and weak below 1013, is though weak but the court order can chart the future course of action. There are number of companies got the IT notices and the issue may shadow the up move as many sponsers on their radar. The Europe is grappled with the financial Greece trouble and the UK election uncertainity cannot be ruled out as the future govt. may be of coalition, as per the reports.
The Nifty neighter broke the down side support nor the upside resistance. The Tatamotors trades above 847 then the markets are strong and Nifty for early consolidation. Incase it trades below 826 then the Nifty may see lower levels.
The metals are not out of bear pressure until Sail trades above 220 and Ster trades above 780 level. The SBI came out with the JV news may see profit booking below 2250 level and may move futher up above 2290 level.
Thursday, May 06, 2010
Wednesday, May 05, 2010
Does this a severe fall ...???
The Nifty lowers levels are expected but the reasons for the fall are more serious than the technicals and likely to turn out to be a serious blow to markets. The heavy weights now will follow the trend and weigh pressure on the Nifty. If this happens then the Nifty is capped at 5220 for some time now and may take months to recover. The Nifty may find it difficult to bounce to higher levels if it trades below 5080 level for more than 3 trading sessions.and the low shall not trade below 4985-5015 level at any given point of time.
The RIL may be due to the anticipation of the favourable court order ( RNRL-RIL case), could stay above 1000 level but the support can be expected from 983 level. The SBI, star performer may find support from 2220-14 level. This could even become an indicator for the temporary bottoming of Nifty. The Tata Motors is another Bull scip which may find buyers at 803-07 level form where the Nifty also likely to get bounce or by below 10 more rupees a sure bounce is expected in the scip and in Nifty.
The world markets are getting effect with China’s exnomic policies and bruing asset bubble. The commodity stocks got hammered due to this reason but they bounce with vengence as the Indian economy is fast growing, so is the US. For now, there are no rules for this week at least, likely to loose 5-6 percent on the Index, wow basis due to the emotional street involvent is an indicator to go by.
The RIL may be due to the anticipation of the favourable court order ( RNRL-RIL case), could stay above 1000 level but the support can be expected from 983 level. The SBI, star performer may find support from 2220-14 level. This could even become an indicator for the temporary bottoming of Nifty. The Tata Motors is another Bull scip which may find buyers at 803-07 level form where the Nifty also likely to get bounce or by below 10 more rupees a sure bounce is expected in the scip and in Nifty.
The world markets are getting effect with China’s exnomic policies and bruing asset bubble. The commodity stocks got hammered due to this reason but they bounce with vengence as the Indian economy is fast growing, so is the US. For now, there are no rules for this week at least, likely to loose 5-6 percent on the Index, wow basis due to the emotional street involvent is an indicator to go by.
Monday, May 03, 2010
The Nifty at cross roads???
The bears gain strength when the Nifty trades below 5230 level and the bulls may try to push it above the threshold level at 5252-63 range. The Nifty is getting consolidation with lower level buying but the fall to 5080 level is imment before the take to higher level is expected.
The fall by 55 points gave consolidation of the tech majors and the the reality sector. The JSW steel better than expected results can take the Tatasteel to again to 635-640 level and the DLF can touch 323-21 level. The Bombay slum development projects to the reality majors can prop the further fall.
The fall though happened due to the correction in metal majors and the reliance along with correction banking majors may find buyers. The Nifty will feel the real pressure from bears when it fails to cross the 5251 level. The Tata Motors, Infy, ONGC and SBI may correct further along with Reliance to bring the Nifty to lower levels and the rest will follow them.
Incase Nifty trade above 5229 level and the low is above 5209 level then the markets may find some buyers again. The longterm buying is happening evey time Nifty fall to 5200 level.
The major fall happened in the second rung PSU banks due to their poor performance. The South India bank, Indian Bank, Central bank and Union bank attracted exist option at higher level. They same will happen to the majors due to the inflation concerns. The power equipment majors lile ABB fell due to poor forecast. The markets showed real weakness and likely to continue in the mid and small cap stocks.
The metal & mineral companies like Sesa Goa, Guj NRE are facing the heat of relentless rise of Rupee. The oil importing companies are enjoying the same at the otherend.
The RIL has to trade above 1031 in the early trade and to close above 1039 to review the situation, otherwise the counter is under severe bear pressure. The ICICI has to trade above 1042 level and low shall not breach below 925. The Tata Motors though under bull grip can see profit book wthout crossing high 874-76 level. The Tata steel in the morning has to cross the resistance at 618 to negate the pressure.
The fall by 55 points gave consolidation of the tech majors and the the reality sector. The JSW steel better than expected results can take the Tatasteel to again to 635-640 level and the DLF can touch 323-21 level. The Bombay slum development projects to the reality majors can prop the further fall.
The fall though happened due to the correction in metal majors and the reliance along with correction banking majors may find buyers. The Nifty will feel the real pressure from bears when it fails to cross the 5251 level. The Tata Motors, Infy, ONGC and SBI may correct further along with Reliance to bring the Nifty to lower levels and the rest will follow them.
Incase Nifty trade above 5229 level and the low is above 5209 level then the markets may find some buyers again. The longterm buying is happening evey time Nifty fall to 5200 level.
The major fall happened in the second rung PSU banks due to their poor performance. The South India bank, Indian Bank, Central bank and Union bank attracted exist option at higher level. They same will happen to the majors due to the inflation concerns. The power equipment majors lile ABB fell due to poor forecast. The markets showed real weakness and likely to continue in the mid and small cap stocks.
The metal & mineral companies like Sesa Goa, Guj NRE are facing the heat of relentless rise of Rupee. The oil importing companies are enjoying the same at the otherend.
The RIL has to trade above 1031 in the early trade and to close above 1039 to review the situation, otherwise the counter is under severe bear pressure. The ICICI has to trade above 1042 level and low shall not breach below 925. The Tata Motors though under bull grip can see profit book wthout crossing high 874-76 level. The Tata steel in the morning has to cross the resistance at 618 to negate the pressure.
Sunday, May 02, 2010
STILL VALID..
The article covered in the Business standard is still Valid.The Nifty is in the range bound, looking for enough shorts to build before gearing up for the final target beyod 5480. Please read.....
Next target is 5,450 Devangshu Datta / New Delhi April 12, 2010, 0:41 IST
Resistance above 5,375 .The market made net gains, and recorded a new 52-week high of 5,399 points (Nifty) before settling to close at 5,361.75 for a week-on-week gain of 1.35 per cent. The Sensex was up 1.36 per cent while the Defty rose 2.76 per cent on the back of a rupee surge.
Volumes improved in both cash and derivatives markets. For the first time after the Budget, domestic institutions and FIIs were both net buyers in unison. The BSE 500 was up 1.7 per cent while the Junior rose 1.8 per cent and the Midcaps was ahead 2.92 per cent.
Outlook: It looks as though the market has some upside left and a target of about 5,450 could be achieved next week. Right now, the Nifty is straining to overcome resistance in the 5,350-5,400 zone. This is week 10 of an intermediate uptrend so it may be close to maturity. On the downside, there is support in roughly 50 point intervals below the current price. The support at 5,200 seems particularly strong.
Rationale: The continuing pattern of rising peaks and rising troughs confirms the uptrend. The synchronisation of institutional attitude and the improved volumes and breadth are good signals. But there is a lot of resistance above current levels and in absolute terms, volumes aren’t great. So, the market could slog through a narrow range despite its apparent Northwards bias.
Intermediate trends generally last between 6-12 weeks though they can last longer if they are in phase with the long-term trend like this one. The last phase often sees a sudden explosion of volumes and a sharp rise. Barring such a volume expansion, the Nifty will be unable to overcome resistance above 5,450.
Counter-view: Momentum signals aren’t very good. The intermediate trend is nearly mature. A trend reversal next week cannot be ruled out. A short-term correction could pull the market down to support at 5,200. If it drops below that point, it would be prudent to assume that the intermediate trend is correcting though that wouldn’t be confirmed.
Bulls & Bears: IT stocks saw weakness and the CNXIT was down 0.55 per cent. This could be a danger signal since Infosys result kicks off the full year result season and the strong rupee has already led to cutbacks in expectations. It could have been even worse except for short-covering on Friday.
Financials were strong in general. So were a host of interest-sensitive engineering and construction businesses. Power equipment and cement were pretty strong as well. Signals were mixed in sectors such as real estate and metals where movements appear to be stock-specific rather than sector-driven. FMCGs were weak with persistent selling in Hindustan Unilever and ITC. Telecom started strong and closed weak. The sector could see more news-driven volatility as 3G auctions play out. Energy is also volatile in the face of rising crude prices. Reliance Industries looked strong however.
Next target is 5,450 Devangshu Datta / New Delhi April 12, 2010, 0:41 IST
Resistance above 5,375 .The market made net gains, and recorded a new 52-week high of 5,399 points (Nifty) before settling to close at 5,361.75 for a week-on-week gain of 1.35 per cent. The Sensex was up 1.36 per cent while the Defty rose 2.76 per cent on the back of a rupee surge.
Volumes improved in both cash and derivatives markets. For the first time after the Budget, domestic institutions and FIIs were both net buyers in unison. The BSE 500 was up 1.7 per cent while the Junior rose 1.8 per cent and the Midcaps was ahead 2.92 per cent.
Outlook: It looks as though the market has some upside left and a target of about 5,450 could be achieved next week. Right now, the Nifty is straining to overcome resistance in the 5,350-5,400 zone. This is week 10 of an intermediate uptrend so it may be close to maturity. On the downside, there is support in roughly 50 point intervals below the current price. The support at 5,200 seems particularly strong.
Rationale: The continuing pattern of rising peaks and rising troughs confirms the uptrend. The synchronisation of institutional attitude and the improved volumes and breadth are good signals. But there is a lot of resistance above current levels and in absolute terms, volumes aren’t great. So, the market could slog through a narrow range despite its apparent Northwards bias.
Intermediate trends generally last between 6-12 weeks though they can last longer if they are in phase with the long-term trend like this one. The last phase often sees a sudden explosion of volumes and a sharp rise. Barring such a volume expansion, the Nifty will be unable to overcome resistance above 5,450.
Counter-view: Momentum signals aren’t very good. The intermediate trend is nearly mature. A trend reversal next week cannot be ruled out. A short-term correction could pull the market down to support at 5,200. If it drops below that point, it would be prudent to assume that the intermediate trend is correcting though that wouldn’t be confirmed.
Bulls & Bears: IT stocks saw weakness and the CNXIT was down 0.55 per cent. This could be a danger signal since Infosys result kicks off the full year result season and the strong rupee has already led to cutbacks in expectations. It could have been even worse except for short-covering on Friday.
Financials were strong in general. So were a host of interest-sensitive engineering and construction businesses. Power equipment and cement were pretty strong as well. Signals were mixed in sectors such as real estate and metals where movements appear to be stock-specific rather than sector-driven. FMCGs were weak with persistent selling in Hindustan Unilever and ITC. Telecom started strong and closed weak. The sector could see more news-driven volatility as 3G auctions play out. Energy is also volatile in the face of rising crude prices. Reliance Industries looked strong however.
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